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Stocks ticked up Friday as the stock market built on its incredible comeback from Monday’s violent rout. The broad market index ended the week just shy of completely reversing its weekly losses.

The S&P 500 advanced 0.47% to finish at 5,344.16. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.51% to close at 16,745.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 51 points, or 0.13%, to end at 39,497.54.

Week to date, the broad market index was just 0.04% lower. During Friday’s session, it had managed to briefly turn positive for the week before losing some of its gains. Meanwhile, the blue-chip Dow and tech-heavy Nasdaq were down on the week by 0.6% and 0.18%, respectively.

This week marked the most volatile week of 2024 for the market. The Dow on Monday tumbled 1,000 points, while the S&P 500 lost 3% for its worst day since 2022. Disappointing U.S. payrolls data from the prior week and concerns the Federal Reserve was too late with rate cuts were the main culprits for the selling, along with the unwinding of a popular currency trade by hedge funds.


A trader at the New York Stock Exchange on Aug. 8, 2024.Spencer Platt / Getty Images

However, the major averages mounted a comeback, with Thursday’s encouraging weekly jobless claims number helping alleviate investors’ concerns about the U.S. economy. The S&P 500 advanced 2.3% on Thursday for its best day since November 2022, while the 30-stock Dow surged roughly 683 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added nearly 2.9%.

At the Monday lows, the S&P 500 was down nearly 10% from its recent all-time high. The Nasdaq Composite’s pullback reached full-fledged correction territory of beyond 10%. The Cboe Volatility Index — used by Wall Street to measure fear — reached heights last seen during the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Great Financial Crisis.

But investors stepped in to buy the dip on the notion another crisis or recession was not on the horizon. The week’s earlier losses were tied more to hedge funds unwinding a long-time bet on a cheap Japanese yen rather than fundamental threats to the economy.

It is not just equity markets that have had a volatile week. The 10-year Treasury yield fell below 3.70% at one point, only to retake 4% on Thursday. It traded around 3.94% on Friday.

Volatile trading activity is on par for the late summer, when there is not much information flow and earnings season starts to unwind, and is not indicative of a worsening economy, said Infrastructure Capital Advisors CEO Jay Hatfield. Much of the sell-offs in the market stemmed from a “hedge fund theme” rather than longer-term investors, according to Hatfield.

“So it makes sense that we bounce back. A volatile sell-off and bounce back is just normal August [and] September behavior; thin markets, hedge funds gone wild and irrational moves down. The recent market activity has no bearing on our long term outlook,” Hatfield added.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

PARK TOWNSHIP, Mich. — For much of the last two years, American politics at its most divisive, ideological and angry had dominated the previously unremarkable work of county government in the place that Jim Barry called home.

Now it was primary day, and the voters of Ottawa County, a fast-growing, middle-class community of about 300,000 people on the shores of Lake Michigan, were headed to the polls.

Barry, who described himself as a moderate in the mold of former president and Michigan Republican Gerald Ford, was running for a seat on the 11-member county board and hoping that voters in Ottawa, which former president Donald Trump had carried in 2020 by 21 percentage points, might be ready to embrace a different kind of politics.

“I’m not sure Ronald Reagan could pass some of the conservative purity tests in the modern era,” Barry said.

He was standing on a busy street corner wearing a red, white and blue football jersey that said, “Elect Jim Barry,” and waving a sign with the same message. Some drivers honked and gave him a thumbs-up. Others scowled. His wife thought she spotted his opponent, who lived nearby, amid the thrum of traffic.

In 2022, eight hard-line Republicans, channeling Trump-style anger over pandemic-era mask mandates, had won seats on the board, defeating more moderate GOP candidates. The new commissioners had swept into office promising to “thwart tyranny” and defend the county from dark forces that had supposedly infiltrated their local government to promote abortion, sexualize the county’s children and corrupt its deeply held Christian morals.

The transformation made Ottawa a case study in what happens when local government is buffeted by the same ideological battles and dissolution of trust that have afflicted national institutions for much of the last eight years. In a series of stories over the last 18 months, The Washington Post chronicled the changes in the county.

Board meetings, which had once been sleepy affairs, often stretched on for five hours or more as residents lined up to deliver their views on the Bible, drag-queen story hours and the safety of vaccines. The majority’s beliefs had shaped policy, with real-world impacts on the lives of Ottawa residents, and spawned costly litigation.

Two years after their stunning victory, the far-right commissioners were running on a simple rallying cry that spoke to their fears for their country and community: “Protect the Kids.”

Barry, a 69-year-old real estate agent, said he understood why so many in the community had been upset by the mask mandates. But he didn’t believe county government was the place to wage heated battles over divisive national political issues, like abortion, racism and sexuality. Instead, he wanted the county government to return its focus to issues like water quality and the high cost of housing.

“It’s not as exciting as trying to do something about transgender athletes in high school sports,” he said. “But there’s no purview for the county board of commissioners in that.”

Barry, who had been standing on the side of the road, off and on, since 7:30 a.m., checked his watch. “We’re coming up on 6 [p.m.],” he said. It was almost time to get ready for his election night party.

After all the turmoil and county board meetings in which neighbors regularly called each other fascists, communists, Nazis and Christian nationalists, Barry wondered if there was a way to pull back from so much of the vitriol consuming the country. In a few hours, he and the people of Ottawa County would have their answer.

A ‘God-briefed’ candidate

Twenty-five miles to the east, on the opposite side of the county, Rachel Atwood corralled voters outside her polling place. She was part of the slate of hard-line Republicans trying to keep control of the board. Her group, Ottawa Impact, dominated the county GOP.

“Do you need a Republican voter guide?” she asked as people passed by.

Atwood, 43, got involved in county politics because she believed that mask requirements were hurting her autistic son at a critical moment in his development. The mandates were over, but Atwood thought that the threats to her children’s well-being from the government and pro-LGBTQ+ liberals remained as real as ever.

“What makes me a little different in this race is that my experience is much more geared toward the current culture war,” she told a local television station.

She was running in the Republican primary against John Teeples, a retired attorney, who described himself as a “fiscal conservative” intent on restoring “kindness” to the county’s politics.

The night before the primary, Atwood and the other Ottawa Impact candidates each occupied one of the four geographic corners of the county and prayed for the protection of their community. Her skin was deeply tanned, the product of knocking on more than 2,000 doors — an experience that she described as transformative.

“God has been sending people to me through door-knocking to say things to me that are supernatural, that are God-briefed,” Atwood said in a recent Facebook live video from the campaign trail. She prayed with dozens of people who had autistic children or close relatives with the condition, she said, and promised them she would fight for more county services for their loved ones.

Atwood also said she had encountered constituents who told her they were exhausted by the infighting in the county. On their first day in office, the Ottawa Impact commissioners had fired the county’s administrator, canned its lawyer of 40 years, closed its diversity office and dumped its motto “Where you Belong” in favor of “Where Freedom Rings.”

More change — which Ottawa Impact opponents called chaos — followed. The new commissioners forced the county’s longtime sex educator, who had developed successful programs to lower teen pregnancy and curb the spread of sexually transmitted infections, into an administrative job. When their efforts to remove the county’s public health director were blocked by the courts, they cut the health department’s budget, eliminating a program that helped feed 22,000 low-income residents each year.

They turned down millions of dollars in federal and state grants because they came with conditions that the commissioners said were unconstitutional or immoral, and they became embroiled in a spate of lawsuits alleging discrimination.

Joe Moss, who co-founded Ottawa Impact and chairs the county board, didn’t respond to a request for comment. In an interview with a local television station, he described the new board members as regular people — teachers, entrepreneurs, nurses, social workers — who were acting as “guardrails” to defend the county’s children from “dangerous and harmful” forces.

Atwood disagreed with those who insisted that Ottawa Impact had hurt the community by introducing anger and division into the otherwise mundane world of county government.

“I’m happy people have become so engaged,” she said.

Outside her polling place a couple of supporters approached her and asked for a selfie. Atwood smiled and posed alongside them. “We’re praying for you,” they told her.

An anxious wait

That evening, candidates and their backers gathered at election night parties where they compulsively checked the county’s website for early returns.

Barry waited for the results with Rep. Bill Huizenga (R), the local congressman and his half brother, who had rented an event space at an upscale waterfront restaurant. The siblings stood together near the restaurant’s deck as the sun set over Lake Michigan, smartphones in hand.

Just after 9:30 p.m. the county clerk sent a text alert that early results were in, prompting nearly 4,000 people to ping the county’s website within 30 seconds. The flood of traffic crashed the site.

“We are aware of the website issues,” the county clerk posted on his social media pages. “A lot of folks interested in our results!”

The primary’s unusually high stakes made for unusual alliances. An older man in a red “Make America Great Again” hat sat with friends at an election night pizza party for Mark Northrup, a small-town mayor challenging Moss in the Republican primary. A few feet away, Jacqui Poehlman, one of Northrup’s volunteers, hunched over a computer with a “Bans off our bodies” sticker on it.

Northrup, 66, described himself as a “pro-life” Republican who planned to support Trump, his party’s candidate for the presidency. Poehlman, 43, described herself as “very liberal.” But they shared views on the value of well-funded public schools, the need for more affordable housing and the necessity of preventing Ottawa Impact from retaining its majority on the board. Both fervently believed that scorched-earth political warfare, which had become the standard at the national level, was causing irreparable harm when injected into their otherwise peaceful and prosperous community.

“Trump is his guy in the fight,” Poehlman said of Northrup. “But we’re not voting for Trump at the county level.”

At the Ottawa Impact party, Atwood sat at a table with her friends in a rustic banquet hall, with strings of white lights hanging from the rafters. At the front of the room, Moss introduced a video of Ottawa Impact candidates on the campaign trail. There were pictures of smiling children, pickup trucks and American flags flapping in the breeze. In the background a Christian contemporary music star sang: “We’re the generation that has to make a choice/ Will we push against this evil or will we watch while it destroys?”

Most of the parties began to break up around 11 p.m., before all the precincts had reported. Barry headed home with a comfortable lead over Gretchen Cosby, a 60-year-old former nurse who had been inspired to get into politics by her false belief that Democrats had stolen the 2020 election. Around midnight the results posted online. Barry won with 63 percent of the vote.

The three Ottawa Impact candidates running for countywide office — prosecutor, sheriff and treasurer — lost to more moderate Republicans by about 20 percentage points each. Moss, Ottawa Impact’s co-founder, easily defeated his primary opponent by 14 points.

But his movement, which in January 2023 controlled eight of the 11 board seats, had suffered a devastating blow. After Tuesday’s results, they would, at best, retain just four.

“Their majority is gone,” said a relieved Poehlman a little after midnight. Her preferred candidate lost to Moss, but she and her friends didn’t let the defeat dampen their late-night celebration.

“That’s awesome,” said Janet Martin, a Democrat sitting next to her.

“It’s good for our county,” added Judy Bergman, a former Republican.

A new era

The next morning the people of Ottawa County awoke and started trying to make sense of what had happened the previous night. Atwood didn’t see the results, which included her own loss, as proof that Republicans had grown weary of Ottawa Impact’s hard-line politics. Instead, she blamed Democrats who crossed over and voted in the Republican primary for her group’s defeat.

“My Republican election was taken from me by Democrats” and wealthy donors, Atwood said. “Not every best candidate wins. That’s just how it is.”

Moss vowed that despite the results, he would never moderate his message. “The majority does not dictate morality,” he said in a statement posted to Ottawa Impact’s website. “There are consequences to abandoning truth and abdicating freedom.”

Justin Roebuck, Ottawa County’s clerk and a self-described conservative Republican, had sought to remain neutral in his local party’s civil war. He defended the integrity of the voting system that he oversaw but tried to win over the skeptics and election deniers in his party with good humor and civility. On Wednesday evening he invited about 50 of the county’s Republican leaders to a “unity” party at a brewery in Holland, Ottawa County’s largest city.

The gathering brought together all flavors of Ottawa Republicans. Josh Brugger, who won the GOP primary for relatively moderate Grand Haven’s commission seat, described the previous night’s results as a “multi-partisan” victory over Trumpism.

“When radicalism reared up, we all united to put it back down,” he said. He stood only a few feet away from Moss, who was wearing a light-colored sports coat over a campaign T-shirt that bore his name, spelled out in all capital letters.

Roebuck, who had been up late overseeing the election returns, was working on three hours of sleep when he took the microphone and addressed the crowd.

“Frankly, this has been a challenging and contentious time,” he began. Roebuck never mentioned Trump. Instead, he invoked Ronald Reagan, whom he described as a “man of principle,” and urged his fellow Republicans to come together in November to fight for the values that they shared — limited government, personal responsibility, fiscal restraint.

“We do have a lot to fight for and there are clear, clear differences,” he said, referring to the upcoming presidential contest in his critical swing state and a competitive campaign for an open Senate seat. At the county level, Republicans hope to prevent Democrats from adding any more board seats to the two they currently hold.

Barry, who came dressed in a shirt that featured the Statue of Liberty, fireworks and busts of Frederick Douglass and the Founding Fathers, said he wanted to find a way to work with Moss and the three other Ottawa Impact Republicans on the county board.

“Nobody was conquered last night,” he said. “We all live here. We’re all neighbors.”

There were 148 days remaining until the new board members would be sworn in and a new era of Ottawa County politics would begin.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

Tim Walz was in the thick of a crowded Democratic primary for governor of Minnesota in August 2017 when he appeared at a sports and outdoor show known as Minnesota’s “finest hunting event.”

As a congressman representing a rural swath of southern Minnesota, Walz had championed gun rights — earning an “A” rating from the National Rifle Association — and often proudly sported a camo hat featuring the affirmation “NRA ENDORSED.” But as he sought his party’s nomination in a state that had backed the Democratic presidential nominee since 1976, Walz was equivocal when asked about access to guns.

“He tried to find a middle ground, saying he was a strong advocate but also supported common sense regulation,” said Rob Doar, senior vice president of the nonprofit Minnesota Gun Owners Caucus, a prominent gun rights group.

The moment showed how Walz went about moderating his stance on guns — slowly at first, and then seemingly all at once. Two months later, after a gunman left 60 dead at a country music festival in Las Vegas, Walz pledged to donate his previous NRA contributions to a charity for families of fallen service members. And a mere four months after that, as the nation reeled again from a mass killing, this time at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla., Walz “went full-bore on gun control,” Doar said.

The shift, capped by his recent support as governor for a wave of significant gun-control bills in Minnesota, placed him squarely in line with the mainstream of the Democratic Party, which he’s now helping lead into November as the vice-presidential nominee. His evolution on guns, in a tight time frame punctuated by some of the most deadly recent shootings, illustrates the galvanizing effect of the mass-casualty events. But his change of heart also came at a time when gun-control groups began spending significantly more on candidates who shared their positions.

In his decade as a pro-gun congressman, Walz received donations totaling $18,950 from the NRA and $6,000 from the National Shooting Sports Foundation, campaign records show. After Parkland, as he prepared to go to battle with the NRA, which had earned a reputation as a grassroots juggernaut that could make or break a political career, he wrote on Facebook: “I expect them to start spending heavily to defeat me.”

Instead, that year marked a turning point, as gun-control groups outspent the NRA and other firearms organizations amid an outcry over gun violence. The political arm of Everytown for Gun Safety, the group founded by billionaire Mike Bloomberg, invested heavily in governor’s races, helping to elect Democrat Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and to defeat Republican Adam Laxalt in Nevada. And in the homestretch of the race in Minnesota, Everytown donated $200,000 to a pro-Walz political committee, according to campaign records.

“It’s no surprise he turned away from the NRA as the NRA turned more and more extreme,” said John Feinblatt, president of Everytown for Gun Safety. “Governor Walz has proven that he’s not afraid to stand up to the gun lobby to keep his constituents safe.”

In the days since Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris picked Walz as her running mate, gun rights groups have sought to remind voters of what they cast as the governor’s betrayal.

“Tim Walz is a political chameleon — changing his positions to further his own personal agenda,” Randy Kozuch, chairman of the NRA Political Victory Fund, said in a statement. The U.S. Concealed Carry Association for Saving Lives sent out an alert to members featuring a video of Walz signing gun-control legislation that it said created “onerous barriers standing in between you and your ability to protect your family.”

A spokeswoman for the Harris-Walz campaign said, “After some of the worst mass shootings in our country’s history, the governor was moved to take a hard look at the facts and decided to support common sense gun reform that would prevent future tragedies. That level of introspection is something to be commended, not critiqued.”

A lifelong hunter and former National Guardsman, Walz was active in the Congressional Sportsmen’s Caucus when he served in the U.S. House from 2007 to 2018, and he led the group during part of his time on Capitol Hill. He backed a number of bills favored by gun enthusiasts and, in 2016, Guns & Ammo magazine named him one of the top 20 politicians for gun owners.

But there were signs that Walz was not as hard line as some of his more conservative colleagues. After the mass killing at Sandy Hook Elementary School in 2012, Walz indicated he might be open to a ban on high-capacity, military-style rifles.

“What people are putting forward, looking at assault magazines, assault weapons, that should be in the discussion,” he told a Minnesota paper. “It has to strike the proper balance between the constitutional rights of law-abiding citizens versus the safety of all Americans.”

Five years later, as he campaigned for governor, he faced pressure from within his party to take a stronger position on guns. A Democratic primary opponent, Erin Murphy, made an issue of his “A” rating from the NRA and called on him to give back contributions from the pro-gun advocacy group, which he pledged to do after the carnage at the Route 91 Harvest music festival in Las Vegas in October 2017.

“We came into that race with different positions and he evolved over time,” said Murphy, who’s now the Democratic majority leader of Minnesota’s state Senate. “And I understand why, rightfully, because of what we were seeing happening.”

After the Parkland shooting in Florida in February 2018, Walz proposed an assault weapons ban. At one campaign event, he said: “My job today is to be dad to a 17-year-old daughter named Hope,” explaining that after the violence, she “woke up like many of you did five weeks ago and said, ‘Dad, you’re the only person I know who’s in elected office. You need to stop what’s happening with this.’”

Walz added: “I’ll take my kick in the butt from the NRA.”

Walz’s shift also came as gun-control groups were gaining influence and the NRA was roiled by internal feuds and corruption allegations. Between 2016 and 2022, NRA revenue fell more than 40 percent, while membership dues were down roughly 50 percent, according to tax filings. Campaign spending dropped, and legal expenses soared. The NRA’s Political Victory Fund donated just $2,000 to Walz’s Republican opponent in the fall of 2018, records show.

Gun rights groups did not mobilize in a significant way against Walz when he ran for reelection in 2022, said his Republican opponent, then-state Sen. Scott Jensen, who had backed increasing penalties on “straw” buyers of firearms who resell them to ineligible gun owners.

“The gun groups weren’t falling in love with me either even though I was stronger [on gun rights] than Tim Walz,” said Jensen, who called Walz “a very adept politician.”

In 2023, as Democrats controlled both legislative chambers and the governor’s mansion for the first time in about a decade, Walz signed sweeping gun-control legislation that expanded background checks on gun buyers and created “red flag” protections to take guns away from people deemed a danger to themselves or others.

Murphy, his onetime primary opponent, said he has proved himself a reliable partner on gun violence prevention.

“The last two years in Minnesota, we’ve passed a number of pieces of legislation that he signed into law as a result of that necessary evolution,” she said.

In late July, as Harris was nearing a decision on her running mate, Walz bragged in a social media post about getting “straight Fs” from the NRA in recent years. “And I sleep just fine,” he added.

Clara Ence Morse contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

Vice President Kamala Harris is echoing an idea first proposed by her opponent, Donald Trump, by pledging that she would push to eliminate taxes on tips.

“When I am president, we will continue our fight for working families of America, including to raise the minimum wage and eliminate taxes on tips for service and hospitality workers,” Harris said during a campaign rally Saturday at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas.

It was the last stop for Harris and her running mate on the Democratic ticket, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, as they toured swing states, including Nevada, where the service industry is a major employer. Leisure and hospitality is the main industry in the Las Vegas metropolitan area, accounting for over a quarter of total employment in January 2023, according to the Nevada Office of Workforce Innovation.

Many service workers were enthusiastic when Trump made a similar proposal at a rally in the same city two months ago. “For those hotel workers and people that get tips, you’re going to be very happy. Because when I get to office, we are going to not charge taxes on tips,” Trump said.

After Harris’s announcement, Trump said in a post on his social media platform that Harris “copied my NO TAXES ON TIPS Policy,” adding that “This was a TRUMP idea – She has no ideas, she can only steal from me.”

The idea of scrapping taxes on tips for some workers is not new, and unions representing service and hospitality workers have been pushing for it for years. Still, some of those unions expressed skepticism that Trump would be able to implement the idea when he proposed it. Ted Pappageorge, secretary-treasurer for Culinary Workers Union Local 226 — which endorsed Harris and Walz ahead of Saturday’s event — previously said the Culinary Union has “fought for tipped workers’ rights and against unfair taxation” for decades.

“Relief is definitely needed for tip earners, but Nevada workers are smart enough to know the difference between real solutions and wild campaign promises from a convicted felon,” Pappageorge said in a statement, referring to Trump’s New York conviction this year on charges related to a hush money payment.

The hospitality workers union Unite Here, which also endorsed Harris, likewise downplayed Trump’s pledge. Union President Gwen Mills told the Associated Press that Trump was “making a play” for votes.

As The Washington Post has reported, under current law, all gratuities that workers receive must be taxed at the same rate as their regular income, and many employers report their workers’ tips to the Internal Revenue Service — but much is paid in cash and never reported. More than 6 million workers had tips reported to the IRS in 2018, the most recent year for which complete data is available.

Tips are crucial for many hospitality and service workers. The federal government and many states allow employers to pay tipped workers well below the normal minimum wage, provided they make up the difference to ensure each worker earns at least the standard federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour. When President Joe Biden was still running for reelection, he called for eliminating the lower tipped minimum wage and increasing the minimum wage for all workers.

Any change to the taxation of tipped income would require an act of Congress — where there appears to be some bipartisan support for the idea. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) and Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) introduced legislation in June called the No Tax on Tips Act, which would exempt tips from federal income tax. The proposal received the backing of Nevada’s two Democratic senators, Jacky Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto.

The Budget Lab, a nonpartisan policy research center affiliated with Yale University, analyzed the bill and concluded it would not have a large impact on the U.S. workforce. It said “a meaningful share” of tipped workers — representing less than 3 percent of all employment in the United States — already pay no federal income tax because they earn less than federal minimums.

“This suggests that the direct effect of the bill on the workforce as it stands today—before accounting for behavioral changes—would be small,” the Budget Lab analysis said. “The larger and far more uncertain effect would stem from behavioral changes incentivized by the bill, such as substitution into tipped employment and tipped income, which would increase the bill’s overall cost.”

The presidential candidates’ proposals were not heavy on details.

When asked for more information at the time, a Trump spokeswoman said: “President Trump will ask Congress to eliminate taxes on tips.”

On Saturday, a Harris campaign official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, made clear that her proposal “would require legislation” and that it would not be a free-for-all.

“As President, she would work with Congress to craft a proposal that comes with an income limit and with strict requirements to prevent hedge fund managers and lawyers from structuring their compensation in ways to try to take advantage of the policy,” the official said.

Julie Zauzmer Weil contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

Analysts and intelligence experts warned Sunday that wider efforts may be underway by foreign powers to disrupt the U.S. presidential election, after the Trump campaign said it believed its email systems had been breached by hackers working for Iran.

So far, two Democratic House members who have served on intelligence and security committees have called for briefings and for declassification of information related to the possible foreign interference in the election.

“Buckle up,” Chris Krebs, former director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency posted on X, referring back to the 2016 campaign, when U.S. intelligence concluded that Russia interfered in the election by hacking and leaking internal Democratic documents. “Someone is running the 2016 playbook, expect continued efforts to stoke fires in society and go after election systems — 95% votes on paper ballots is a strong resilience measure, combined with audits. But the chaos is the point.”

The Trump campaign announcement came after it received questions from news organizations about an internal vetting document on vice-presidential candidate JD Vance that had been sent to the outlets.

The Washington Post was sent on Thursday the 271-page document, marked as “privileged & confidential,” from an anonymous AOL user going by the name “Robert.” Politico, which was the first to report on the Trump campaign’s statement, said that it had been receiving documents, including a vetting document on Vance, from a sender also going by the name “Robert” since July 22.

The Trump campaign has pointed to a report released Friday by Microsoft in which the company said it had discovered evidence that Iranian hackers had tried to break into the email account of a “high-ranking official” on a U.S. presidential campaign in June, which was around the same time Vance was selected as Trump’s running mate.

The company has declined to name the campaign but a person familiar with Microsoft’s work confirmed that the report’s reference was to the Trump campaign.

U.S. officials have not confirmed the campaign was hacked, and the campaign did not provide evidence of the breach or Iranian involvement.

Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), a top Democrat on the House Homeland Security Committee’s cybersecurity subcommittee, said that he was seeking a briefing from the Department of Homeland Security.

“Yes, Trump is the most despicable person ever to seek office. He also sought foreign hacking in a past election. But that doesn’t mean America ever tolerates foreign interference,” he posted on X.

Former chair of the House Intelligence Committee, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) urged officials to quickly declassify any information on the possible foreign nature of the hack reported by the campaign.

“In 2016, the Intelligence Community moved much too slow to properly identity the hacking and dumping scheme carried out by Russia to divide Americans and benefit the Trump campaign,” he posted on X. “The IC has since made improvements, but should act quickly here.”

He also called on both parties to condemn the reported hack. “In 2016, the Trump campaign welcomed Russian interference, took advantage of it, and then sought to deny it, much to the detriment of the country,” he said.

The Harris-Walz campaign has not responded to multiple requests for comment.

Since 2016, Democratic campaigns and affiliated organizations have put an emphasis on enhanced security protocols and heavily invested to shore up systems to guard against hacks and other cybersecurity threats.

Donald Trump, the Republican nominee for president, said on his social media platform Truth Social that his campaign was informed by Microsoft that one of their websites was hacked by the Iranian government. He also claimed that only publicly available information was taken.

“We were just informed by Microsoft Corporation that one of our many websites was hacked by the Iranian Government — Never a nice thing to do!” he posted on the platform late on Saturday.

“They were only able to get publicly available information but, nevertheless, they shouldn’t be doing anything of this nature. Iran and others will stop at nothing, because our Government is Weak and Ineffective, but it won’t be for long.”

The document that was sent to The Post was an internal campaign write-up of Vance’s potential political vulnerabilities, dated Feb. 23, that had been commissioned by the campaign from the law firm Brand Woodward. While it drew from public records and news clips, the vetting report itself was an internal document not previously public.

On Saturday, a spokesperson for the National Security Council said the Biden administration “strongly condemns any foreign government or entity who attempts to interfere in our electoral process or seeks to undermine confidence in our democratic institutions.”

The FBI said in a statement on Saturday that the agency was aware of the media reports and had no comment.

Josh Dawsey, Isaac Arnsdorf, Devlin Barrett and Tyler Pager contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

Former President Donald Trump falsely claimed on social media Sunday that a crowd at a Michigan rally for Vice President Kamala Harris last week “DIDN’T EXIST,” “nobody was there” and that photos of the event were fabricated by artificial intelligence.

In the days following President Joe Biden’s announcement that he would step aside as the Democratic nominee, conspiracy theorists and far-right influencers have promoted a number of falsehoods targeted at the Harris campaign. But Trump’s repeating of the false claims about the crowd size and photos, with multiple posts on his Truth Social platform, is a notable escalation.

“Has anyone noticed that Kamala CHEATED at the airport? There was nobody at the plane, and she ‘A.I.’d’ it, and showed a massive ‘crowd’ of so-called followers, BUT THEY DIDN’T EXIST!” the Republican nominee for president wrote on social media. Trump continued, “She’s a CHEATER. She had NOBODY waiting, and the ‘crowd’ looked like 10,000 people! Same thing is happening with her fake ‘crowds’ at her speeches. This is the way the Democrats win Elections, by CHEATING.”

There were in fact thousands of people gathered when the plane arrived at the airport, and there is no evidence that news organizations altered photos using artificial intelligence. There is also no evidence that Harris, or Democrats more broadly, have cheated to win elections, despite Trump’s repeated false allegations that the 2020 presidential election was “rigged.”

David Plouffe, a senior adviser for Kamala Harris for President, expressed concern on X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter, about Trump’s comments.

“These are not conspiratorial rantings from the deepest recesses of the internet,” Plouffe wrote. “The author could have the nuclear codes and be responsible for decisions that will affect us all for decades.”

The event last week at an airport hangar in Detroit was live-streamed, widely attended by the media including The Washington Post, and many attendees posted their own pictures and video showing a packed venue. Local news outlet MLive estimated that 15,000 people filled the hangar and that attendees spilled out into the tarmac.

Mallory McMorrow, a Michigan state legislator who was at the event tweeted photos, noting that “you can just see the throngs of people outside.”

On Sunday, the Harris campaign rejected Trump’s comments, writing on the social media site X, “This is an actual photo of a 15,000-person crowd for Harris-Walz in Michigan.”

Trump, the GOP nominee for president, for years has been focused on crowd size as a metric of success. He has repeatedly taken to social media to boast about how the size of crowd he could draw and last week asserted at a news conference that “nobody’s spoken to crowds bigger than me.”

Trump has previously claimed that the audience for a speech he gave in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021, the day a mob stormed the U.S. Capitol, eclipsed the numbers who attended Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I Have a Dream” speech despite photographic evidence that it did not.

Trump has regularly been challenged by fact-checkers and opposition groups for elevating discredited allegations, repeating unfounded rumors as fact, or grabbing onto conspiracies, especially when under political threat.

In 2016, he falsely claimed President Barack Obama was not born in the United States and did not attend Columbia University, that Trump’s taxes were audited because he is Christian, that vaccines are connected to autism and that climate change is a hoax.

In 2020, he refused to advocate for wearing masks during the coronavirus pandemic, and promoted unfounded claims about purported risks.

The Washington Post Fact Checker team in January 2021 noted that it had logged “30,573 untruths during his presidency — averaging about 21 erroneous claims a day.”

Trump’s focus on crowd size also has become something that the Harris campaign has used to poke fun at Trump about — while at the same time bragging about their own crowds.

Democratic vice-presidential nominee Tim Walz at a Friday night rally with Harris, looking at an audience in Arizona that Democrats estimated at more than 15,000, quipped, “It’s not as if anybody cares about crowd sizes or anything.”

On Sunday afternoon, the Harris campaign released a statement describing a crowd of “more than 12,000 Nevadans” at a rally over the weekend — “one of the largest political rallies in modern Nevada political history” — and then described previous audiences as including “14,000+ in Philadelphia, 12,000+ in Eau Claire, and 15,000+ in both Detroit and Arizona.”

And at a fundraising event in San Francisco on Sunday, Harris appeared to address Trump’s social media accusations indirectly.

The energy around the country is “undeniable,” Harris said, adding, “The press and our opponents like to focus on our crowd size, and yes the crowds are large.” But even better, she said, attendees are signing up for volunteer shifts by the thousands.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

A sigh of relief? The US stock market started the week on a pessimistic note, but changed course toward the end of the week, ending in a more positive tone.

Last week’s weaker-than-expected jobs report scared investors into thinking that perhaps the Federal Reserve was too late in cutting interest rates. However, last week’s ISM Services report and Thursday’s jobless claims eased those concerns.

Stock Market Indexes Are Better, Technically

While the charts of the S&P 500 ($SPX), Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) are showing signs of strength, it’s too early to declare that it’s beginning to rally to the upside. Let’s analyze the charts of all three indexes in more detail and see where they stand.

The Mega-Cap S&P 500 Index

The S&P 500 held the support of its 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and its 50% Fibonacci retracement (from the April low to July high). While the S&P 500 looks like it’s trying to move higher (see chart below), the next resistance level isn’t too far off. The 38.2% Fib retracement at 5400 was a support level for some previous lows. If the S&P 500 reaches that level, the August 2 gap will be filled.

Until the index breaks above the 5400 level, you can’t call this week’s price action a bullish rally. All the more reason to watch the price action in the S&P 500.

CHART 1. DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 500. The index ended the week closing above its 100-day moving average and its 50% Fibonacci retracement level, but it’s too early to call this a bullish move.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Tech-Heavy Nasdaq Composite

The Nasdaq Composite is also improving, but hasn’t reached the ranks of the S&P 500. From a technical standpoint, the Nasdaq Composite is approaching its 100-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement level (from April lows to July high), which could act as a resistance level (see chart below). Looking back, you can see that level was a resistance and support level in the past.

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF NASDAQ COMPOSITE. Watch the resistance level that’s close by. Will the index break through this level, or will it be a resistance level that it’ll have a tough time pushing through?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average differs slightly from the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, but also looks better technically (see chart below). It peaked on July 18, declined a few days later, and tried to reach the previous peak.

The price action is almost like a double top pattern. What’s interesting is that the index almost reached its measured move lower. The measured move from the July 18 high to July 24 trough was 3.4%. From the chart below, you can see that a 3.4% decline from the July 24 low would bring the index to 38,438. The Dow went as low as 38,499 before moving higher.

Overall, it seems that equities are trying to recover. But will the recovery be sustained?

Recession worries may be in the rearview mirror for a while, but investors continue to walk a fine line. On Monday, the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) went as high as 65.73. The last time we saw those levels was in March 2020, when COVID was a concern.

Volatility has come down significantly, but is still above 20. It’s too early to say the market is done with fear; we’ve only started to see a change. Remember, it was just a few days ago when the stock market saw an excessive selloff. Next week, there are important reports on consumer and producer inflation, retail sales, and consumer sentiment.

Inflation Data: What To Know

With rate cut expectations on the radar, you’ll want to stay on top of next week’s inflation data. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates a year-over-year percent change of 3.01% for headline CPI and 3.33% for Core CPI. If the data shows that inflation is coming down as it has been in the last few months, investors could sigh a huge relief. Conversely, if the data comes in hotter than expected, it could throw things off. But that’s unlikely since a rate cut in September is very probable. That’s not to say it’s not possible, though.

Watch the price action in bonds ahead of the US inflation data. Bond prices showed signs of leaving the start line but have retreated. The daily chart of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT below shows the ETF bounced off a support level.

Which direction will TLT move? If the inflation data supports a September rate cut, then TLT will move higher, possibly before the report is released.

Another note is that the CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September at 49.5. That’s a significant drop from the end of last week, when the probability was close to 90%.

Closing Position

Proceed with caution. We’ve seen how quickly the market can change direction. Any piece of negative data could send volatility through the roof again. The stock market is hanging on, and the best you can do is note the important support levels in the broader indexes, sectors, and individual equities. If equities can hang on next week, they’ll be on more solid footing. Right now, you need to have a safety net close by.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 closed down 0.04% for the week, at 5344.16, Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.60% for the week at 39,497.54; Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.18% for the week at 16745.30
  • $VIX down 12.91% for the week closing at 20.37
  • Best performing sector for the week: Industrials
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Materials
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Insmed Inc. (INSM); Carvana Co. (CVNA); FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI); Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM); SharkNinja, Inc. (SN)

On the Radar Next Week

  • July Producer Price Index (PPI)
  • July Consumer Price Index (CPI)
  • July Retail Sales
  • August Michigan Consumer Sentiment
  • July Housing Starts
  • Fed speeches from Bostic, Harker, Musalem, Goolsbee, 
  • Earnings from Walmart (WMT), Cisco Systems (CSC), Home Depot (HD), among others.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The markets extended their corrective move in the previous week; over the past five sessions, the markets remained quite choppy and stayed totally devoid of any definite directional bias. It absorbed a few global jerks and saw gaps on either side of its previous close on different occasions. While the level of 25000 has now almost made itself an intermediate top for the markets, the markets have also appeared to have dragged their most immediate resistance points even lower. Had the markets not seen a rebound on the last trading day of the week, the weekly loss could have been a bit wider. The Nifty oscillated in a 526-point trading range over the past five sessions. The India VIX, the volatility gauge, surged higher by another 7.09% to 15.34. The headline index finally closed with a net weekly loss of 350.20 points (-1.42%).

The coming week is once again a truncated one; August 15th will be a trading holiday on account of Independence Day. From a short-term technical perspective, the derivative data suggest that the markets may continue to remain in a narrow range while they keep finding resistance at higher levels. No trending upmove is likely unless the zone of 24500-24650 is taken out convincingly. On the other hand, the nearest support that exists for the Nifty is the 50-DMA which is presently placed at 23967. By and large, over the next four trading sessions of the week, the index is largely expected to stay in a defined range staying volatile, but devoid of any definite directional bias.

Monday is likely to see a quiet start to the week. The levels of 24550 and 24720 are likely to act as resistance levels for the markets. The supports come in at 24090 and 23900.

The weekly RSI is 68.21; it has slipped below 70 from an overbought zone which is bearish. It otherwise stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD stays bullish and remains above its signal line.

A falling window occurred on candles; this is essentially a gap that generally results in the continuation of the downtrend. However, this needs to be confirmed with the general price action.

The pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that while the markets have started reverting very slowly back to their mean, this corrective consolidation may still last for some time. For a trending upmove to occur, the Nifty will have to move past the 24500-24750 zone. On the other hand, given the indications given by derivatives data, support exists in the form of maximum PUT OI accumulation at 24000 levels. With the 50-DMA existing at 23967, the zone of 23950-24000 becomes an important support zone for Nifty. If this zone gets violated, then we may see some incremental weakness creeping into the markets.

All in all, the markets are likely to stay highly tentative and are unlikely to see any runaway kind of upmove in the immediate future. So long as they trade below the 24500-24750 zone, all upsides are likely to get sold into; more focus should be on guarding profits at higher levels rather than chasing the up moves. While keeping fresh exposures limited to stocks with improving relative strength, overall leveraged exposures must be kept at modest levels. A cautious outlook is advised for the coming week.


Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) continue to show a total lack of leadership among sectors and also some defensive setup building up in the markets. The Nifty Midcap 100 is the only sector index that is present in the leading quadrant.

The Nifty Consumption Index is inside the weakening quadrant; however, it is seeing an improvement in its relative momentum against the broader markets. Besides this, the Nifty Auto, Realty, PSE, and Metal indices are also inside the weakening quadrant.

The Nifty PSU Bank Index continues languishing inside the lagging quadrant of the RRG. Besides this, the Infrastructure Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant and is now set to underperform the broader markets relatively. The Nifty Energy Index is inside the lagging quadrant but it is seen improving its relative momentum against the broader markets.

The Pharma Index has rolled inside the improving quadrant of the RRG: this is likely to lead to an onset of a phase of potential outperformance from this index. Besides this, the Nifty Media, IT, and FMCG indices are inside the improving quadrant and they continue to get their relative momentum better against the broader markets. The Nifty Financial Services and Nifty Bank Indices are also inside the improving quadrant; however, they are seen giving up on their relative momentum.


Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals. 


Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae  

Vladimir Putin fixed the commander in chief of Russia’s military, General Valery Gerasimov, with a cold stare and a look of exasperation. The video, released Wednesday by the Kremlin, showed the Russian president was not happy with news from the southern region of Kursk.

At that moment, hundreds of Ukrainian troops, backed by tanks and protected by air defenses, were advancing into the region. Russian soldiers were surrendering; hundreds of Russian civilians in and around the town of Sudzha were fleeing with anything they could grab.

In two-and-a-half years of warfare, it was an unprecedented Ukrainian incursion into Russia. Putin told the Kremlin meeting that it was “another major provocation” by Kyiv. The region’s acting governor declared a state of emergency, describing the situation as “very difficult.”

Above all, it was humiliating for a Russian state that prides itself on protecting the motherland.

The Kursk attack was an audacious and counter-intuitive move from the Ukrainian military, what one analyst describes as “doing the least obvious thing.”

Despite steadily losing ground in eastern Donetsk, it chose to send elements of experienced brigades into Russian territory, with the apparent goals of embarrassing the Kremlin and forcing the Russian Defense Ministry to redeploy resources and providing the home front with a much-needed morale boost.

George Barros at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War says the Ukrainians “achieved operational surprise against great odds and are currently exploiting Russia’s lack of readiness in its border areas.” (The same tactic worked in September 2022 when they recovered much of occupied Kharkiv region within a week.)

The Russian regiment tasked with defending this part of the border abandoned its positions. Several dozen soldiers were taken captive, leading President Volodymyr Zelensky to express Friday “special gratitude to our warriors and units who are replenishing the ‘exchange fund’ – by taking the occupiers as captives and thus helping to free our people from Russian captivity.”

A column of Russian reinforcements was taken out by a missile attack near the town of Rylsk on Thursday night, possibly because the Ukrainians had managed to hack into multiple traffic cameras that are a feature of Russian highways. One Russian blogger, Aleksander Kots, said he had driven the route. “I noticed that there are cameras working along the entire highway. They are literally blinking their lights.”

Meeting little resistance, and with Russian communications in the region reportedly jammed by effective electronic warfare, the Ukrainian brigades pushed more than 20 kilometers (12 miles) inside Kursk in the first two days of the operation.

This wasn’t just a patch of empty Russian countryside. Among the places that came under Ukrainian control was a natural gas transit hub near the border through which Russia supplies Europe with substantial volumes of natural gas.

On Friday, a Ukrainian military Telegram channel declared the facility “under the control of the 99th mechanised battalion of the 61st Mechanized Brigade,” one of the experienced units involved in the assault. A video showed soldiers in front of the building, but Gazprom said Saturday that the pipeline was still operating.

Inside Russia, the sort of anger that had greeted setbacks at the beginning of the war was rekindled.

Andrey Gurulyov, a former commander in the region, reposted a comment on Telegram that demanded military prosecutors investigate decisions by commanders to transfer units from the Kursk region ahead of the attack.

And there was resentment amongst Russian civilians in the region, thousands of whom fled their homes. The head of the city of Rylsk – some distance from the most advanced Ukrainian units – said Friday more than half the population of 15,000 had left. Social media videos illustrated the frustration among civilians at the sluggish response of the military; some appealed directly to President Putin.

An expeditionary force

Ukrainian troops, even if reinforced, cannot expect to occupy several hundred square kilometers of Russian territory. This is very much an expeditionary force, albeit a battle-hardened one, that has exploited the absence of organized resistance to make ground quickly.

But holding a large chunk Russian territory is beyond their capacity and probably beyond their goal. Russian reinforcements will eventually make their mark, even if it takes them longer than three days to begin effective defense. On Saturday, the Russian Defense Ministry said units had “thwarted the attempts of the enemy’s mobile groups to get to the depth” of Russian territory near Ivashkovsky, Malaya Loknya, and Olgovka in the Kursk region. Olgovka is 20 kilometers (12.4 miles) from the border.

There were also signs Saturday that Russian “Lancet” drones were beginning to degrade Ukrainian armour.

Emil Kastehelmi at the Black Bird group in Finland, which uses open-source intelligence to track the conflict says “time is running against Ukrainians – (the) Russians won’t be disorganized forever.”

Even if the Ukrainians need to pull back from more advanced positions, such an operation still serves several purposes. Barros says it “exposes some of Russia’s planning assumptions and critical vulnerabilities.” And Matthew Schmidt, who has taught strategic and operational planning at the US Army’s Command and General Staff College, said the Ukrainians’ “creative use of force was designed to put pressure on the decision-makers in Moscow” – and possibly cost some of them their jobs.

Russian military blogger Vladislav Shurygin crystallized all this in a Telegram post Friday, saying that the enemy had “very skilfully and accurately chosen a different strategy – taking advantage of the bureaucratic rigidity and sluggishness of the Russian management system, to exhaust Russia with continuous unexpected strikes on sensitive infrastructure and the civilian population, provoking discontent, disappointment and apathy.”

The Kursk operation also demonstrates to Ukraine’s allies that it still has the energy and imagination to surprise its enemy and embarrass the Kremlin at a time when much of the news from the frontline was bleak for Kyiv.

That’s not lost on Shurygin. “The goal of this new strategy is to put Russia before the prospect of an increasingly costly war (financially, reputationally and organizationally) and to force it to negotiate peace by November-December.”

Daniel Fried at the Atlantic Council says there is a long history of such surprise military raids – some inconsequential and others impactful. He recalls George Washington’s daring maneuver to cross the Delaware River in 1776, when he returned with captured prisoners and supplies and raised morale for the fight against the British.

Fried, a former US assistant secretary of state for Europe, says that by demonstrating Russia’s failure of intelligence and weakness along its border, the raid had punctured the Kremlin’s narrative “that Ukrainian resistance is useless and support for Ukraine is futile.”

Ukraine’s Kursk gambit forces the Russian Defense Ministry into some tough choices. It appears that existing groups in Kursk such as the National Guard, FSB and irregular elements are unable to combat the Ukrainians.

Alternatively, it may call on Russia’s substantial reserves in a larger-scale operation – but these are critical for current Russian offensive operations inside Ukraine, where the continuous commitment of high numbers of troops has eroded Ukrainian defenses.

Or, Barros says, the Russians may turn to aviation to attack Ukrainian armor inside Kursk, thereby preventing Ukrainian forces from consolidating positions and assisting current Russian forces deployed in the area.

Whatever combination the Russians choose, they are trying to reverse a humiliating episode in the conflict just as sheer mass and air superiority in eastern Donetsk was beginning to deliver incremental progress, underpinning the Kremlin’s insistence that Ukraine give up four eastern regions as a condition for negotiations.

Across a southern border with Ukraine that is hundreds of miles long, that perception has been seriously, and unexpectedly, challenged.

Darya Tarasova and Maria Kostenko contributed reporting to this story.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

A landslide at a landfill in Uganda’s capital Kampala has killed eight people, the city’s authorities said on Saturday.

The incident happened late Friday after heavy rainfall when sections of the landfill collapsed, covering some nearby houses, Ugandan media reported.

Kampala Capital City Authority said government and Red Cross personnel were searching the site and had rescued 14 people.

“On a very sad note, eight people have so far been found dead, six adults and two children. The rescue operation is still ongoing …,” the authority said on its X account.

The landfill, known as Kiteezi, has served as Kampala’s sole garbage dump for decades and had turned into a big hill. Residents have long complained of hazardous waste from the site polluting the environment and posing a danger to people.

Footage from NTV Uganda television showed people walking on a section of the landfill that had crushed parts of a house, while pictures from UBC Uganda showed an excavator attempting to dig up garbage.

Parts of Uganda have been experiencing heavy rains in recent weeks causing flooding and landslides, though no fatalities had previously been reported.

This post appeared first on cnn.com