Author

admin

Browsing

Saudi Arabia will host top American and Russian officials on Tuesday for a high-stakes rapprochement meeting – a role that underlines the kingdom’s aspirations to become a global actor capable of successfully mediating international conflicts. Another likely aim: added leverage for Riyadh in future talks on the fate of postwar Gaza.

The location for these talks – described by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov as one that “generally suits” the United States and Russia – is widely considered a win for the kingdom’s 39-year-old de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He’s on a mission to transform his oil-rich country and its fundamentalist Islamist past, into a nation that can cultivate soft power from immense wealth.

“I don’t think there’s another place where the leader has such a good personal relationship with both Trump and Putin,” Saudi commentator Ali Shihabi said, adding that for “Saudi Arabia, (the event is) prestigious and enhances the Saudi soft power regionally and globally.”

It’s all part of a wider shift. In recent years, Saudi Arabia has realigned its policies towards neutrality in global conflicts with the hope of attracting billions of investments that could help achieve “Vision 2030” – the crown prince’s plan to diversify the Saudi economy away from oil. Prince bin Salman has significantly pulled back from Yemen after years of war with neighboring Houthis, he is mending ties with regional rival Iran and has maintained close relationships with China and Russia – all while preserving the close Saudi relationship with the West.

Ties with both Putin and Trump

In addition to hosting international boxing bouts and electronic music festivals, Saudi Arabia has sought to project an image of being a global peacekeeper, hosting aid donor meetings and peace conferences. In August 2023, it hosted a two-day peace summit on Ukraine with representatives from more than 40 countries (albeit without Russia), and in February of the same year, pledged $400 million in aid to Ukraine.

Prince bin Salman’s ascension as a powerbroker in the talks stem from his close relationship with US President Donald Trump, who supported the young royal when he was internationally shunned following the killing of columnist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents.

In 2017, Trump broke with tradition by choosing Saudi Arabia for his first international presidential visit. Even after he lost the 2020 election, Saudi Arabia continued close business ties with Trump, investing $2 billion in a firm chaired by his son-in-law Jared Kushner and announcing plans to build Trump towers in the kingdom.

The crown prince also has warm ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who refused to isolate the prince after the Khashoggi murder. Prince bin Salman resisted Western pressure to alienate Moscow after Ukraine’s invasion and continued coordinating closely with Putin to control global oil supply, even siding with Russia by rebuffing calls from the Biden administration to ramp up oil production in 2022. Putin visited the kingdom in 2023 and has courted Riyadh to join BRICS – a bloc of countries seeking to counter US economic influence.

The hedging of Saudi Arabia’s relations in an increasingly polarized world has proven beneficial, analysts say. Prince bin Salman was “instrumental” in the release of American teacher Mark Fogel from Russian custody last week, Trump’s envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff said. Saudi Arabia, along with its neighbor the United Arab Emirates, was also successful in mediating several prisoner exchanges between Ukraine and Russia.

On Monday, Witkoff joined US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio for a meeting with Prince bin Salman in the Saudi capital Riyadh, just one day ahead of the scheduled talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Putin’s aide Yury Ushakov and Russia’s sovereign wealth fund chief Kirill Dmitriev.

Notably, Tuesday’s talks will not include Ukraine. However, President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is in the United Arab Emirates capital Abu Dhabi, said he will travel to Saudi Arabia later this week for separate talks with Saudi officials.

European leaders will be meanwhile meeting in Paris to discuss a coordinated response to the talks in Saudi Arabia, having been left out of direct participation – a signal from Washington that Europe’s security role may no longer be a priority for the United States.

An eye on Gaza

Longer term, Saudi Arabia may aim to use its role as a mediator in the meeting between Russia and the US to capitalize on a pressing regional matter – Trump’s controversial suggestion that the US take ownership of Gaza and permanently relocate its residents.

Earlier this month, Trump laid out a vision of bringing peace to the Middle East by redeveloping the war-torn Gaza strip with “Riviera”-style premium housing and permanently relocating its more than 2 million residents.

Arab countries swiftly rejected the idea. There will be a summit at the end of this week in Saudi Arabia where a counter proposal will be discussed before presenting it to Trump.

“By facilitating President Trump’s stated goal of ending the Ukraine war, Saudi Arabia is well-positioned to accumulate goodwill in Washington. The kingdom, which is scheduled to host a mini-Arab summit on Friday, could capitalize on its rising stock with the Trump administration to help bridge the gap between the US and Arab positions on the fate of Gaza,” said Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain.

The next four years could see Prince bin Salman banking on his close relationship with Trump – but the prince may still find himself in tough spots trying to balance his regional interests amid aggressive demands from the transactional American president.

Trump would like to see Saudi-Israel relations normalized, but amid growing anger in the Middle East over Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, defending a path to Palestinian statehood is politically non-negotiable for Prince bin Salman.

“Achieving lasting and just peace is impossible without the Palestinian people obtaining their legitimate rights in accordance with international resolutions, as has been previously clarified to both the former and current U.S. administrations,” the kingdom said in a statement earlier this month in reaction to Trump’s Gaza plan.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The Israeli military is keeping troops at five southern Lebanese posts despite a Tuesday withdrawal deadline and Hezbollah warnings that Israel is violating a ceasefire agreement.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will, for the time being, remain at the outposts in Lebanon “so we can continue to defend our residents and to make sure there’s no immediate threat,” Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an IDF spokesperson, said on Monday. Israel’s military identified the handful of strategic locations in southern Lebanon overlooking northern Israeli communities.

Israel and Hezbollah ended a year-long war in November, in a ceasefire brokered in part by the United States. A deadline for Israel to withdraw, originally set for January, was extended to February 18 at Israel’s request.

Around 60,000 Israelis were forced from their homes in the north of the country after Hezbollah attacked Israel in solidarity with Hamas, in October 2023. Few of them have returned to border towns that have been devastated by rocket fire. A year-long, low-level conflict culminated last fall with an Israeli invasion and bombing campaign that saw more than a million Lebanese civilians displaced from their homes.

“Based on the current situation, we will leave small amounts of troops deployed temporarily in five strategic points along the border,” Shoshani said. “We are committed to the agreement of the ceasefire. We think it’s a good process.” He declined to say whether Lebanon’s government had agreed to the extension, saying only that the Israeli government had spoken with the ceasefire’s mediators, led by the US.

Publicly, Lebanese leaders have been scathing. Nabih Berri, the speaker of Lebanon’s parliament, said in a Thursday statement that the US had informed him of Israel’s plan, which he rejected on Lebanon’s behalf.

“I refused to talk about any deadline to extend the withdrawal period,” he said, according to Lebanon’s official news agency NNA. “And it is the responsibility of the Americans to impose the withdrawal.” He added that if Israel remains in those locations, it “means that the Israelis will practice freedom of movement and aggression in Lebanon, and this is unacceptable.”

Israel has accused the Lebanese government of failing to uphold its side of the ceasefire agreement, by failing to adequately deploy south of the Litani River – an area from which both Israel and Hezbollah are supposed to withdraw.

The IDF has, on occasion, continued to bomb Hezbollah targets during the ceasefire, accusing the Iran-backed militant group of using military sites in violation of the November agreement. It has also continued, on a near-daily basis, to destroy buildings in southern Lebanon in an effort, the military says, to destroy Hezbollah infrastructure. The efforts have left many of southern Lebanon’s towns in ruins.

The US military, which along with the United Nations and France runs a body to administer the ceasefire and discuss disputes, has been vague – stopping short of confirming that Israel would uphold its withdrawal commitment. In a statement on Friday, Maj. Gen. Jasper Jeffers said that the Lebanese Armed Forces “will control all population centers in the Southern Litani Area before next Tuesday.”

Jeffers has in recent weeks praised the Lebanese military, saying that their “checkpoints and patrols operate effectively,” and that it was providing for stability and security.

Naim Qassem, who assumed the post of Hezbollah secretary-general after Israel assassinated his predecessor, Hassan Nasrallah, in a massive bomb attack last September, said that there were “no excuses” for Israel’s failure to withdraw.

“This is the agreement,” he said in an address on Sunday. “The Lebanese state must take a firm stance and say no – because if Israel remains in any occupied area after that date, it will be in violation of the agreement.”

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on Thursday that his country put together a proposal for United Nations peacekeepers to replace Israeli forces at key points in Lebanon, Reuters reported. This was meant to ensure that Israeli troops leave Lebanon by the February 18 deadline.

Eugenia Yosef, Nadeen Ebrahim and Pauline Lockwood contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The new year for brick-and-mortar retailers is picking up right where 2024 left off, as a slew of stalwart brands are set to shutter dozens of store locations amid shifting consumer patterns.

The latest crop of closures are being led by fabrics and crafts retailer Joann, which said this week it was shuttering 500 locations in 49 states as part of a second go-around in Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization.

“This was a very difficult decision to make, given the major impact we know it will have on our team members, our customers and all of the communities we serve,’ the company said in a statement. ‘A careful analysis of store performance and future strategic fit for the company determined which stores should remain operating as usual at this time. Right-sizing our store footprint is a critical part of our efforts to ensure the best path forward for Joann.”

Joann first filed for bankruptcy protection last March to address a heavy debt load, shrinking revenues and what it described as an “uncertain consumer environment.” It announced another Chapter 11 filing last month, this time with the goal of finding an entity to acquire all of its assets.

‘The last several years have presented significant and lasting challenges in the retail environment, which, coupled with our current financial position and constrained inventory levels, forced us to take this step,’ it said in a release accompanying its latest filing.

Meanwhile, JCPenney separately said this week it was closing a handful of stores, with an initial batch of eight to go under depending on “expiring lease agreements” and “market changes.” 

“While we do not have plans to significantly reduce our store count, we expect a handful of JCPenney stores to close by mid-year,” the company said in a statement.

JCPenney emerged from bankruptcy in 2020; last month, it announced it was merging with the group that operates other retail brands, including Aéropostale and Brooks Brothers.

In the first nine months of its current fiscal year, JCPenney’s adjusted earnings tumbled nearly 64% to $66 million.

Those results reflect an overall physical retail environment that continues to deteriorate. According to Coresight Research, as many as 15,000 retail locations could close this year, nearly doubling the count for 2024, which were already the most since 2020, the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Inflation and a growing preference among consumers to shop online to find the cheapest deals took a toll on brick-and-mortar retailers in 2024,” Coresight Research CEO Deborah Weinswig said in a release last month. “Last year we saw the highest number of closures since the pandemic. Retailers that were unable to adapt supply chains and implement technology to cut costs were significantly impacted, and we continue to see a trend of consumers opting for the path of least resistance.’

She said customers are running out of patience for stores that are ‘constantly disorganized, out of stock, and that deliver poor customer service.’

‘We have seen Shein and Temu capture market share as consumers choose to shop online to save time, money, and avoid frustration,’ she said.

In the first weeks of 2025, Coresight was already tracking about 30% fewer openings and more than triple the number of closures compared with the same period last year.

Other closures announced late last year or planned for 2025 include Party City, Big Lots, Kohl’s and Macy’s.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Italo Medelius-Marsano was a law student at North Carolina Central University in 2022, when he took a job at an Amazon warehouse near the city of Raleigh to earn some extra cash.

The past month has been unlike any other during his three-year tenure at the company. Now, when he shows up for his shift at the shipping dock, Medelius-Marsano says he’s met with flyers and mounted TVs urging him to “vote no,” as well as QR codes on workstations that lead to an anti-union website. During meetings, managers discourage unionization.

The facility in the suburb of Garner, North Carolina, employs roughly 4,700 workers and is the site of Amazon’s latest labor showdown. Workers at the site are voting this week on whether to join Carolina Amazonians United for Solidarity (CAUSE), a grassroots union made up of current and former employees.

CAUSE organizers started the group in 2022 in an effort to boost wages and improve working conditions. Voting at the site, known as RDU1, wraps up on Saturday.

Workers at RDU1 and other facilities told CNBC that Amazon is increasingly using digital tools to deter employees from unionizing. That includes messaging through the company’s app and workstation computers. There’s also automated software and handheld package scanners used to track employee performance inside the warehouse, so the company knows when staffers are working or doing something else.

“You cannot get away from the anti-union propaganda or being surveilled, because when you walk into work they have cameras all over the building,” said Medelius-Marsano, who is an organizer with CAUSE. “You can’t get into work without scanning a badge or logging into a machine. That’s how they track you.”

CAUSE representatives have also made their pitch to RDU1 employees. The union has set up a “CAUSE HQ” tent across the street from the warehouse and disbursed leaflets in the facility’s break room.

Amazon, the nation’s second-largest private employer, has long sought to keep unions out of its ranks. The strategy succeeded in the U.S. until 2022, when workers at a Staten Island warehouse voted to join the Amazon Labor Union. Last month, workers at a Whole Foods store in Philadelphia voted to join the United Food and Commercial Workers union.

In December, Amazon delivery and warehouse workers at nine facilities went on strike, organized by the Teamsters, during the height of the holiday shopping season to push the company to the bargaining table. The strike ended on Christmas Eve.

Union elections at other Amazon warehouses in New York have finished in defeat in recent years, while the results of a union drive at an Alabama facility are being contested. Organizers have pointed to Amazon’s near-constant monitoring of employees as both a catalyst and a deterrent of union campaigns.

The NLRB has 343 open or settled unfair labor practice charges filed with the agency against Amazon, its subsidiaries and contracted delivery companies in the U.S., a spokesperson said. 

Amazon has argued in legal filings that the NLRB, which issues complaints against companies or unions determined to have violated labor law, is unconstitutional. Elon Musk’s SpaceX, Starbucks and Trader Joe’s have also made similar claims that challenge the agency’s authority.

Amazon spokeswoman Eileen Hards said the company’s employees can choose whether or not to join a union.

“We believe that both decisions should be equally protected which is why we talk openly, candidly and respectfully about these topics, actively sharing facts with employees so they can use that information to make an informed decision,” Hards said in a statement.

Hards said the company doesn’t retaliate against employees for union activities, and called claims that its employee monitoring discourages them from unionizing “odd.”

“The site is operating, so employees are still expected to perform their usual work,” Hards said in a statement. “Further, the camera technology in our facilities isn’t to surveil employees — it’s to help guide the flow of goods through the facilities and ensure security and safety of both employees and inventory.”

Orin Starn, a CAUSE organizer who was fired by Amazon early last year for violating the company’s drug and alcohol policy, called Amazon’s employee tracking “algorithmic management of labor.” Starn is an anthropology professor at Duke University who began working undercover at RDU1 in 2023 to conduct research for a book on Amazon.

“Where 100 years ago in a factory you would’ve had a supervisor come around to tell you if you’re slacking off, now in a modern warehouse like Amazon, you’re tracked digitally through a scanner,” Starn said.

John Logan, a professor and director of labor and employment studies at San Francisco State University, told CNBC in an email that Amazon has “perfected the weaponization” of technology, workplace surveillance and algorithmic management during anti-union campaigns “more than any other company.”

While Amazon may be more sophisticated than others, “the use of data analytics is becoming far more common in anti-union campaigns across the country,” Logan said. He added that it’s ”extremely common” for companies to try to improve working conditions or sweeten employee perks during a union drive.

Other academics are paying equally close attention to the issue. In a research paper published last week, Northwestern University PhD candidate Teke Wiggin explored Amazon’s use of algorithms and digital devices at the company’s BHM1 warehouse in Bessemer, Alabama.

“The black box and lack of accountability that comes with algorithmic management makes it harder for a worker or activist to decide if they’re being retaliated against,” Wiggin said in an interview. “Maybe their schedule changes a little bit, work feels harder than it used to, the employer can say that has nothing to do with us, that’s just the algorithm. But we have no idea if the algorithm has changed.”

Some Amazon employees see the situation differently. Storm Smith works at RDU1 as a process assistant, which involves monitoring worker productivity and safety. Amazon referred Smith to CNBC in the course of reporting this story.

Amazon’s workplace controls, like rate and time off task, are “part of the job,” Smith said. Staffers are “always welcome” to ask her what their rate is, she added.

“For my people, if I see your rate is not where it’s supposed to be, I’ll come up to you and say, ’Hey, this is your rate, are you feeling alright? Is there anything I could get you to get your rate up? Like a snack, a drink, whatever,” Smith said.

Wiggin interviewed 42 BHM1 employees following the first election in 2021, and reviewed NLRB records of hearings. The facility employed more than 5,800 workers at the time of the union drive.

The NLRB last November ordered a third union vote to be held at BHM1 after finding Amazon improperly interfered in two previous elections. The company has denied wrongdoing.

Amazon staffers told Wiggin that during the union campaign, the company tweaked some performance expectations to “improve working conditions” and dissuade them from unionizing. One employee said these changes were partly why he voted against the union, according to the study.

Workers at an Amazon warehouse outside St. Louis, Missouri, filed an NLRB complaint in May. The employees accused Amazon of using “intrusive algorithms” that track when they’re working to discourage them from organizing, The Guardian reported. The employees withdrew their complaint on Tuesday.

Hards said Amazon doesn’t require employees to meet specific productivity speeds or targets.

Lawmakers zeroed in on how surveillance can impact organizing efforts in recent years. In 2022, the former NLRB general counsel issued a memo calling for the group to address corporate use of “omnipresent surveillance and other algorithmic-management tools” to disrupt organizing efforts. The following year, the Biden Administration put out a request for information on automated worker surveillance and management, noting that the systems can pose risks to employees, including “their rights to form or join a labor union.”

However, the Trump administration is attempting to purge the NLRB, with the president firing the chair of the organization on his first day in office last month. Trump has put Musk, a notorious opponent of unions, in charge of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, with the goal of cutting government costs and slashing regulations.

One of the most direct ways Amazon is able to disseminate anti-union messages is through the AtoZ app, which is an essential tool in their daily work.

The app is used by warehouse workers to access pay stubs and tax forms, request schedule changes or vacation time, post on the “Voice of the Associate” message board, and communicate with human resources.

Jennifer Bates, a prominent union organizer at BHM1, learned Amazon fired her through AtoZ in 2023. She was later reinstated by Amazon “after a full review of her case,” and provided backpay, Hards said.

The Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union, which sought to represent BHM1 workers, has said the AtoZ app can access a user’s GPS, photos, camera, microphone and WiFi-connection information. The union also claims that “Amazon can sell the data collected to any third party companies and that data cannot be deleted.” The technology raises several concerns, including that it may suppress “the right to organize,” RWDSU said.

Hards said the RWDSU’s claims are inaccurate and denied that the company sells any data affiliated with AtoZ use. She said AtoZ users must give the app permission to access things like their GPS location.

At the Garner facility, the AtoZ app has been plastered with “anti-union propaganda” since the RDU1 election was announced last month, Medelius-Marsano said.

One AtoZ message suggested employees’ benefits could be at risk if they voted in a union, while another described CAUSE as an “outside party” that’s “claiming to be a union.”

RDU1 site leader Kristen Tettemer said in another message that a group like CAUSE “can get in the way of how we work together,” and that “once in, a union is very difficult to remove.” Smith said Amazon’s response to the union drive has been centered around “putting out the facts and telling you to do your research.”

Medelius-Marsano said it all amounts to an environment of intimidation.

“There’s no doubt about it,” Medelius-Marsano said. “If we lose, fear is going to be the reason.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

It was another mildly bullish week as our major indices climbed very close to new, fresh all-time highs. We also saw a return to growth stocks as we approached breakout levels, which is a good signal as far as rally sustainability goes. Despite this, there remain reasons to be cautious and I’ll point out a couple of those reasons below.

Negative Divergences

The S&P 500 ($SPX) and NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) both seem to be losing bullish price momentum on their respective weekly charts, which can be seen below:

$SPX

$NDX

The price momentum on both indices is slowing and eerily similar to late 2021, just before the cyclical bear market of 2022. Let me be clear that I do NOT believe we’re heading into a cyclical bear market. I don’t see that extent of potential weakness ahead. I do see increased risks of a 5-10% drop, however, and that’s why I’m cautious.

Is This Current Rally Truly Sustainable?

Sometimes a little common sense and perspective goes a very long way. Over the last 75 years, the S&P 500 has averaged gaining 9% per year. So when you go through short-term periods that show gains well in excess of that 9% average, you should at least be thinking there’s the risk that the S&P 500 will fall back and “reversion to the mean”, which is a mathematical concept that describes the tendency of extreme results to move closer to the average. We’ve seen a tremendous rally since the summer correction of 2023. Let’s look at the last 68 weeks (since the correction low in late-October 2023) of return on both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 and compare it to the history of 68-week rates of change (ROC) to gain a sense of this current rally and its sustainability:

$SPX

$NDX

You can look at these two charts and make your own judgement and draw your own conclusions, but, outside of the late-1990s, 68-week ROCs above 50% on the S&P 500 and 60% on the NASDAQ 100 suggest a short-term pullback is more likely, not guaranteed.

Now The Good News

While bullish price action and momentum may seem to be slowing, the long-term monthly PPO on both of these indices is definitely on the rise, which, in my view, limits any short-term downside to the 20-month EMA. I’ll just show the S&P 500 monthly chart, but this will highlight the likelihood that any future selling, if it occurs (no guarantee), holds 20-month EMA support:

$SPX

This chart takes us back 25 years to the turn of the century. The yellow areas highlight poor (below zero) or declining PPOs. During these periods, I’d ignore 20-month EMA support and be cautious. However, the blank periods highlight a rising monthly PPO, during which we rarely see price fall below the rising 20-month EMA. This is where we currently stand. Most pullbacks over the last 25 years, when the monthly PPO is above zero and rising, have fallen short of actual 20-month EMA tests. In other words, we should view a 20-month EMA test as a “worst case” scenario.

The next market decline should be viewed as an OUTSTANDING opportunity to enter this secular bull market.

Stick With Strength

Since we began rolling out our Portfolios quarterly, we’ve had to overcome cyclical bear markets in Q4 2018 (trade war), March 2020 (pandemic), and the first 9-10 months of 2022 (rising inflation and rising interest rates), and a 3-month correction during the summer of 2023. We’ve remained fully invested and have CRUSHED the S&P 500. In fact, below is a graph that highlights our Model Portfolio performance since its inception in November 2018 (in the middle of the trade war!) through the end of January 2025:

We’ve demonstrated the best way to beat the S&P 500, which is to invest in leading relative strength stocks. It’s the only proven method that’s worked for us at EarningsBeats.com. We “draft” our 10 favorite relative strength stocks in various sectors and industry groups and hold them for one entire earnings cycle, then rinse and repeat. Our last quarter’s “draft” picks have annihilated the S&P 500, +15.15% vs. 3.34%.

You can check out our Model Portfolio holdings for the last 3 months below:

8 of our 10 Model Portfolio stocks outperformed the S&P 500, a few by a very wide margin. Owning relative strength stocks like PLTR, CLS, and TPR will completely carry a portfolio and lead to outstanding returns.

Our “quarterly” results are calculated over the following periods:

  • February 19 – May 19
  • May 19 – August 19
  • August 19 – November 19
  • November 19 – February 19

The reason we calculate our quarterly returns using the above time periods is that we select our stocks each quarter on February 19, May 19, August 19, and November 19. By the time we reach these dates, most key market-moving companies have reported their quarterly results and fundamental data like earnings is factored into our portfolio selections just as much as technical considerations. That fundamental/technical combination is one factor that separates us from others and we do this because my background is public accounting. I don’t stray far from my core beliefs. I believe management’s execution of their business strategies/plan and beating revenue and EPS estimates is a huge component of its stock’s upside potential.

On Monday, February 17th, we’re holding our next DRAFT. We will be announcing the 10-equal weighted stocks in each of our portfolios designed to beat the S&P 500 over the next 3-month period. You’re quite welcome to join us. It might change your way of investing and improve your results immediately. CLICK HERE for more information and to register!

Happy trading!

Tom

For us at EarningsBeats.com, earnings season is the time to do our research to uncover the best stocks to trade over the next 90 days, or earnings cycle. We do this in various ways. Our flagship ChartList is our Strong Earnings ChartList (SECL), which honestly is nothing more than a sophisticated WatchList that organizes annotated charts with key price/gap support levels, simply as a reminder throughout the next quarter as to where might be great entry points. These stocks typically have great price/volume combinations, excellent relative strength, and rising AD lines (accumulation/distribution lines).

Currently, we have 301 stocks on our SECL and all of our prior Model and Aggressive portfolio stocks have been on this ChartList. One of the keys is that SECL companies ALL have beaten Wall Street consensus estimates as to both revenues and earnings per share (EPS). It guarantees us an element of strong fundamentals and confirmed management execution, I believe necessary ingredients to long-term growth.

On Monday, we’ll be unveiling the 10 equal-weighted stocks in our Model and Aggressive Portfolios for the next 3 months. But before we announce those stocks, much analysis needs to be done. For purposes of this article, I’ll give you a couple names that I’m considering strongly for one of our portfolios, based upon their quarterly results and their technical outlook.

Samsara, Inc. (IOT)

There are plenty of stocks to choose from in software ($DJUSSW), so IOT may or may not make our final cut. However, the strength here, both absolute and relative, is apparent. We just saw both the absolute and relative price break out to all-time highs. So too did the AD line. The uptrend is alive and kicking, if not strengthening. IOT will be reporting its quarterly results on March 6th, which is only a couple weeks after our portfolio “draft”. Having earnings so close can be a really good thing or a really bad thing. Currently, IOT’s significant relative strength vs. software suggests to me that the most recent quarter has been a very strong one, which could propel IOT substantially higher very quickly when results are released, helping to lead a portfolio higher. But what if IOT misses its estimates or lowers future guidance? We have a history of holding our portfolio stocks for an entire 90-day period without stops. Of course, our EB members can decide on their own how to handle both gaps to the upside or to the downside as a result of quarterly results. But holding a stock for 90 days after lowering guidance can be dangerous.

For our next potential portfolio stock, how about a household name that consolidated for two years before breaking out, then pulled back to test that key support level?

Coca Cola Co. (KO)

Surprisingly, KO beat its most recent quarterly revenue consensus estimate by 8-9% and easily surpassed its EPS estimate as well. Could this be a steady influence for a portfolio for the next 90 days? Should we consider that KO’s best two-consecutive-calendar-month period over the last 20 years is March and April?

There’ll be a lot to think about over the next 24 hours as we prepare to release our portfolio selections. Can we repeat our stellar results of the last couple quarters? Check this out:

Model Portfolio:

For the period November 19 through Friday, February 14th’s close:

  • Model Portfolio: +15.15%
  • S&P 500: +3.34%

For the period August 19 through November 19:

  • Model Portfolio: +20.89%
  • S&P 500: +5.50%

Aggressive Portfolio:

For the period November 19 through Friday, February 14th’s close:

  • Aggressive Portfolio: +9.37%
  • S&P 500: +3.34%

For the period August 19 through November 19:

  • Aggressive Portfolio: +25.75%
  • S&P 500: +5.50%

This is unreal outperformance, especially when you consider that these are quarterly results! Any portfolio manage would love to beat the benchmark S&P 500 by 1 percentage point annually. Both our Model and Aggressive portfolios have beaten that benchmark by more than 25 percentage points over the past 6 months.

I showed our “since inception” Model Portfolio results vs. the S&P 500 in a graph in yesterday’s article, but it’s worth repeating:

That’s a lot of outperformance over the past 6+ years. And we’re going to try to do it again. We’re “drafting” the 10 equal-weighted stocks in our portfolios on Monday, February 17th at 5:30pm ET. This is a members-only event, but we do have a 30-day FREE trial for those interested in checking out our strategy. For more information about the event and membership, click HERE.

Happy trading!

Tom

Pope Francis is in a “stable” clinical condition and rested well overnight as he continues receiving treatment for bronchitis at a hospital in Rome, the Vatican’s press office said Sunday.

“This morning he received the Eucharist and followed the Holy Mass on television. In the afternoon he alternated reading with rest,” the Vatican added.

Earlier, the Pope thanked the healthcare workers at Rome’s Gemelli Hospital in his Angelus prayer.

“I would like to thank the doctors and healthcare workers in this hospital for their care: they do such a valuable and tiring job,” Pope Francis said in a written text of his Angelus prayer Sunday.

The Pope also thanked the public for the “affection, prayer and closeness with which you are accompanying me in these days.”

The Vatican said Saturday the pontiff would not lead the Angelus prayer as normal, as medical staff had prescribed him “absolute rest” to recover from his respiratory tract infection.

A spokesperson for the Vatican said Pope Francis had a peaceful second night in hospital.

“Pope Francis had a quiet night, slept well, ate breakfast and read some newspapers as he usually does. He continues the therapy,” the Vatican spokesperson said Sunday.

The pontiff was admitted to the hospital in Rome on Friday for treatment for bronchitis and medical examinations, the Vatican said, the latest in a string of ailments that have raised concerns about the 88-year-old pontiff’s health.

Francis has made a number of visits to the hospital in recent years, and received abdominal surgery in 2023. He has been struggling with bronchitis in recent weeks and has asked aides to read speeches and addresses.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The future of Ukraine will be discussed this week in Riyadh between Americans and Russians, with neither Europeans, nor, at the time of writing, Ukrainians themselves at the table. The question for European leaders now is: what can any of them do about it?

A hastily organized meeting in Paris, for now short on details in terms of attendance, is a measure of their concern as they wake up to the reality of Trump 2.0: that their long-standing American ally is no longer much of an ally and may in fact be far more dangerous to them existentially than they had imagined possible only a week ago.

There was, of course, US Vice President JD Vance’s startling speech in Munich on Friday, a rallying cry to the European far right that was quickly seized upon by their news outlets, in which he accused a stone-faced crowd of democratically elected European leaders on their own continent of selling out.

In a remarkable and disingenuous twisting of recent European history, Vance accused his audience of having betrayed the very ideals that allies had fought for during World War II. The danger, he said, warming to a theme he had touched upon in Paris just a few days before at French President Emmanuel Macron’s AI summit, was in Europe’s stifling of free speech, warning his audience that they should fear neither Moscow nor Beijing but European leadership itself.

It was a speech that went so much further than anyone had anticipated by questioning the moral underpinnings of the NATO alliance itself, rather than simply the operational question of budgetary contributions that had so far been President Donald Trump’s principal gripe.

Yet the vice president’s words, as surprising as they were, were not the only ones to set European alarm bells ringing.

Another senior American official to speak in Munich was the special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, who sought to reassure the conference with tough words about his plan for extracting concessions from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The American position, he said, was to be tough on Moscow, to demand territory from Russia and security guarantees for Europe. Yet his comments came only days after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told his NATO counterparts in Brussels that he couldn’t see Ukraine joining the alliance at all, sweeping aside in one fell swoop not just the American position thus far but also what many had considered a key piece of leverage as negotiations with Moscow began.

The fear for Europeans is not now simply that Americans are preparing to negotiate without them but that they are preparing to negotiate badly without them. And while an invitation to Ukrainian leaders to join the discussions in Saudi Arabia may be in the post, for now the prospect is of American and Russian negotiators gathering around a table to discuss not just the future of the 6 million Ukrainians currently living under Russian occupation but also that of a European security architecture that impacts most closely the people living in Kyiv and Paris and every city in between.

The fact is that European countries, like their American ally thus far, spent nearly three years depleting their own arsenals and treasuries in the name of a fight for freedom and democracy that had felt to them existential as the Russian invasion began. That now appears to have been entirely brushed aside in the name of political expediency and the search for peace.

And, while peace is also what Europeans aspire to, their worry is now how costly it may be, given the price Washington seems prepared to pay, and how short lived, given Putin’s record.

Hence the meeting in Paris. European leaders may not be able to weigh in on the terms of a future peace deal but they do hope to find ways of giving security guarantees to Kyiv. Yet the danger facing them as they head to the French capital is that that just as the fight for Ukraine united them three years ago, so too might the specter of peace on their Eastern flank divide them once more. Particularly at a time when several of them are facing an increasingly emboldened and electorally successful European far right that is far more closely aligned with Washington’s new leaders than they are.

But European leaders are also keen not to appear rattled. The French foreign minister explained on French radio on Sunday that these sorts of meetings happened all the time. And Macron himself billed Monday’s talks as “an informal meeting” for those interested “in peace and security in Europe.”

For now, we expect not only the presidents of the EU council and Commission to attend, but also the NATO secretary general and the leaders of Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland and Denmark. The British prime minister has also confirmed his presence, with Downing Street calling it a “once in a generation moment” for national security.

Few of those heading to Paris had doubted that Trump meant what he said the first time round, it’s more that now he appears to have surrounded himself with people who know exactly what they’re doing when it comes to undermining Europe and dismantling NATO. And they are, it seems, done with doing Europe’s bidding. This will make Monday’s meeting not just about how to help Ukraine, but, at its heart, about how to save Europe itself.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Argentine President Javier Milei is facing calls for impeachment after promoting a little-known cryptocurrency, whose price soared then collapsed after his endorsement, leading to losses for thousands of investors.

The news has caused a major scandal in Argentina, with the opposition accusing Milei of promoting a scam, an allegation that the presidency has denied.

It started with a tweet posted by the president to his X account, which has more than 3.8 million followers. “This private project will be dedicated to encouraging the growth of the Argentine economy,” he wrote, with a link to the $LIBRA cryptocurrency project.

Hours later, Milei deleted the message and, in another post, said he had no ties to the initiative. “I was not aware of the details of the project and after having become aware of it I decided not to continue spreading it,” he said.

The presidency on Saturday announced an investigation into the matter, saying: “President Javier Milei has decided to immediately involve the Anti-Corruption Office to determine whether there was improper conduct on the part of any member of the national government, including the president himself.”

Up and down in a matter of hours

At the time of its launch, most of the cryptocurrency was held in a few digital wallets, and its price was almost zero. After the president’s post, its price increased rapidly to almost $5, but in less than three hours it plummeted to cents, according to trading application sites.

“The first thing I saw was that the website had been registered yesterday (Friday); (which) is typical of a scam,” said Sabbatella. He also indicated that the token was created minutes before Milei published the message.

“The whales (large holders of the asset) bought at practically nothing. Then the price flies and when it is up, they sell. It is known as pump and dump; that mechanic happened,” said Sabbatella.

He noted that he saw accounts that bought at very low levels earning more than $4 million in two hours, and one that earned up to $87 million with the sale.

Argentina’s political opposition criticized the president, with the Union for the Homeland coalition announcing Saturday it would move forward with a request for impeachment against Milei.

Figures close to Milei rejected the possibility of an impeachment, with Congressman Diego Santilli calling such calls an attempt to “overthrow” the president.

Security Minister Patricia Bullrich defended Milei, telling Radio Rivadavia: “The president has the freedom of expression to raise the issues he wants.” She also compared his message on X with a presidential visit to a factory, saying that “it does not imply that he is creating a lobby for that place.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

It was nearly 30 years ago when Rosember Lopez received a life-altering diagnosis: He was HIV positive.

With scant government resources for HIV support at the time in Mexico, Lopez joined advocacy groups to secure the funding he needed for medication to help him survive.

The experience inspired him to start his own organization in Tapachula, in southern Mexico, to help destigmatize HIV with the help of funding from the United States.

Today, his is one of dozens of aid groups across Latin America in jeopardy due to the Trump administration’s freeze on almost all international aid and the gutting of the US’ global development network.

The President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), a George W. Bush-era program that has enjoyed bipartisan support, was among those hit by US President Donald Trump’s actions. Relief groups have warned that halting programs such as PEPFAR could pose a risk to the lives of millions of people who will have to stop their HIV treatment, potentially opening the door to a HIV resurgence.

Organizations like Lopez’s help those with the disease access antiretroviral medications needed to reduce the risk of transmission, and give them a chance at a long, healthy life.

After hearing about the aid freeze in late January, Lopez began to worry not only about the future of his organization, A Helping Hand in the Fight Against AIDS (UMALCS), but also the deaths that could result from the lack of HIV care.

“It took me back to the times when there was no support and I said, ‘Well, now what is going to happen if we are no longer going to have the support of antiretroviral treatments?’” he said.

‘Shooting ourselves in the face’

PEPFAR has been a lifeline for those living with HIV and AIDS, saving tens of millions of people across the world since its inception, say advocates.

Without consistent treatment, Spencer warned that in a span of weeks or months, “We’re going to have people who had their HIV well controlled, who will be uncontrolled. You will have people that could not have transmitted who will be able to transmit now.”

If PEPFAR is not reauthorized for the next four years, and without other resources for the HIV response, there would be 6.3 million AIDS-related deaths in the near future, a 400% increase, Christine Stegling, the deputy executive director of the United Nations agency tasked with tackling HIV and AIDS, UNAIDS.

Not ‘enough money for everyone’

The lack of US funding is already impacting organizations in Colombia.

Some organizations, like Red Somos, which provides HIV care to Venezuelan migrants, have been forced to drastically scale back their operations.

“This could be dangerous for their life,” Marquez said, adding that the organization is looking to other sources of funding.

Without explicit permission from the US to resume work, Red Somos has more than 170 antiretroviral drugs that are nearing their expiration date. The group also had to suspend its educational, social protection and mental health services since January.

Miguel Lopez, who was diagnosed with HIV 10 years ago, founded Más Que Tres Letras — which translates to “More Than Three Letters” — to normalize public discourse in Colombia about HIV and where to seek help.

While Lopez’s group relies on other donors, he still anticipates fallout from the latest US policy. Lopez and his team worry there might not be enough money to go around as organizations that once relied on US funding are now scrambling to find other donors.

“There is not going to be enough money for everyone,” Lopez said.

Reduced activities

In Haiti, Dr. Alain Casseus and his colleagues at healthcare organization Zanmi Lasante have been severely impacted by the aid freeze.

Some approved services can’t immediately resume for aid groups that have already cut down on staff and are operating at reduced capacity.

There are parts of Haiti that rely almost solely on American funding for their healthcare needs, the USAID employee said. “If these health facilities were not there, people would receive no medications, no healthcare, nothing.”

“We urgently need international support to sustain our work.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com