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Trader Joe’s is recalling 653,000 scented candles because they pose an elevated fire hazard.

In a release on the Consumer Product Safety Commission’s website posted Thursday, Trader Joe’s said the flame on its Mango Tangerine candles can spread from the wick to the wax, causing a larger than expected flame.

The products were sold in June.

Trader Joe’s said it had received three reports of minor property damage and two reports of minor burns from users of the products.

Users should return the candle to any Trader Joe’s store for a full cash refund of $4, or complete a product feedback form online to receive a $4 Trader Joe’s gift card by mail. Consumers will receive a response from its customer relations team requesting a receipt or a photo of the candle.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Starbucks offered incoming CEO and Chair Brian Niccol a pay bump and hefty one-time awards to lure him from his prior role as chief executive at Chipotle Mexican Grill.

Niccol officially takes the reins at the embattled coffee chain on Sept. 9. As CEO, he’ll be tasked with turning around the company’s slumping sales, improving customers’ experience inside stores and figuring out what to do with its struggling China business. It’s a big undertaking — for which he will be well compensated.

Starbucks disclosed Niccol’s incoming pay plan in a filing on Wednesday. The majority of his compensation package is made up of equity that vests over time, and is based on company performance targets and other metrics. In his first year, his pay package could be worth as much as $116.8 million if the company hits its targets and it fully vests.

Niccol will be paid a base salary of $1.6 million annually, with the opportunity to earn up to $7.2 million more in cash. He’ll also be eligible for annual equity awards worth up to $23 million.

And for leaving Chipotle, Niccol will receive a $10 million cash bonus and $75 million in equity to make up for what he’s forfeiting with his departure from the burrito chain. The equity will vest over a three-to-four-year period, based on company performance and Niccol’s tenure.

“Brian Niccol has proven himself to be one of the most effective leaders in our industry, generating significant financial returns over many years,” Starbucks said in a statement. “His compensation at Starbucks is tied directly to the company’s performance and the shared success of all our stakeholders. We’re confident in his ability to deliver long-term, enduring value for our partners, customers and shareholders.”

At Chipotle, Niccol collected a $1.3 million base salary last year, with a total compensation of $22.5 million. Stock awards and options accounted for the bulk of his earnings, but he also took home a cash bonus of $5.2 million.

During his tenure at Chipotle, the stock climbed 773%, fattening the value of his overall compensation.

Niccol’s pay package is also more generous than that of his ousted predecessor, Laxman Narasimhan. His base salary was $1.3 million, with possible cash bonuses of up to $5.85 million and equity awards of $13.6 million, according to filings. In fiscal 2023, Narasimhan’s compensation was valued at $14.6 million, largely from stock awards.

Unlike Narasimhan, who was previously based in the U.K., Niccol won’t be required to relocate to Starbucks’ headquarters in Seattle.

— CNBC’s Kate Rogers contributed to this report

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

A bipartisan group of lawmakers sent Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg a letter on Thursday expressing concern that the company is failing to prevent illicit drug advertisements from running on its platform.

The House members cited recent reports from The Wall Street Journal and nonprofit Tech Transparency Project, which uncovered a flood of ads on Facebook and Instagram that pointed users to third-party services where they could purchase prescription pills, cocaine and other recreational drugs.

“On March 16, 2024, the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. federal prosecutors have been investigating Meta for facilitating the sale of illicit drugs,” the lawmakers wrote. “Instead of quickly addressing the issue and fully removing the illicit content, on July 31, 2024, the Wall Street Journal again reported that Meta was ‘“running ads on Facebook and Instagram that steer users to online marketplaces for illegal drugs.’”

Most troubling, they wrote, is that Meta continues to run ads despite the company facing an investigation by U.S. federal prosecutors “for facilitating the sale of illicit drugs.”

The letter’s 19 authors include Reps. Tim Walberg (R-Mich.), Gus Bilirakis (R-Fla.), Kathy Castor (D-Fla.) and Lori Trahan (D-Mass.). They noted that the illicit drug ads were “approved and monetized by Meta” and that they were not hidden on the dark web or private social media pages. Media outlets and researchers could easily find the ads, which contained “contained blatant references to illegal drugs,” while Meta’s internal processes apparently missed them.

“Time and time again we have heard from Meta that users come to your platforms because they like the personalization and experiences you provide, and you use sensitive personal information to direct such personalization through content and advertisements,” the lawmakers wrote. “We in Congress, on multiple occasions, have worked to establish data privacy and security protections for Americans but have, in each instance, been met with friction and opposition from Meta with claims that we would drastically disrupt this personalization you are providing.”

They sent Zuckerberg a list of 15 questions intended to uncover more details about how Meta is addressing the problem, and asked him to respond by Sept. 6.

Meta confirmed receipt of the letter and said it plans to respond. The company shared with CNBC the same statement it gave the Journal for its initial story.

“Drug dealers are criminals who work across platforms and communities, which is why we work with law enforcement to help combat this activity. Our systems are designed to proactively detect and enforce against violating content, and we reject hundreds of thousands of ads for violating our drug policies. We continue to invest resources and further improve our enforcement on this kind of content. Our hearts go out to those suffering from the tragic consequences of this epidemic — it requires all of us to work together to stop it.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

At least 449 people were likely sickened by cucumbers tainted with Salmonella bacteria, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday.

Since June, the agency has been investigating an outbreak linked to cucumbers originating with producers in Florida. In its latest update, it said individuals in 31 states and the District of Columbia reported becoming ill after eating affected cucumbers, with 125 ending up hospitalized, though no deaths were reported.

Since June, the CDC has been investigating an outbreak linked to cucumbers originating with producers in Florida.FDA

The true number of individuals sickened from the products has likely been much higher, the agency said, since not all were likely reported.

The agency still lists its investigation as active — but it emphasized that there are no more affected products in stores and that there is “likely no ongoing risk to the public.”

In a separate release, the Food and Drug Administration said it had matched Salmonella strains found in untreated canal water near Bedner Growers Inc., of Palm Beach County, Florida, to ones that comprise the outbreak — but that the grower “does not account for all the illnesses in this outbreak.”

A representative for Bedner did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Another Palm Beach County grower, Thomas Produce Co., was identified by the FDA has having supplied cucumbers linked to the outbreak.

But in a statement, Thomas denied its products were directly connected and that it had been named by the FDA because a matching Salmonella strain was found in a water sample from an irrigation canal on one of its farms.

“Our farm did not have a positive test result for Salmonella Braenderup or any other strain of Salmonella on any of our packed product,” the company said in a letter to customers dated Aug. 14. “Our packing facility was also tested, by the FDA, and we received no positive test results for any strains of Salmonella.”

“At Thomas Produce Company, our commitment to food safety is our top priority,” it continued. “We continuously monitor our production processes, follow best practices and comply with all regulatory requirements”

Earlier, the government investigation prompted a Florida distributor, Fresh Start Produce, to recall all its cucumbers grown in Florida. However, a subsequent finding determined the strain of Salmonella found in a sampling of its product did not match the ones linked to the outbreak.

A representative for Fresh Start Produce did not respond to a request for comment.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The day before Halloween 2019, President Donald Trump welcomed Master Sgt. Matthew Williams to the White House. Williams was being awarded the Medal of Honor for his actions in Afghanistan on April 6, 2008.

“In the face of rocket-propelled grenade, sniper, and machine gun fire, Sergeant Williams led an Afghan Commando element across a fast-moving, ice cold, and waist-deep river to fight its way up a terraced mountain to the besieged lead element of the assault force,” the announcement from the White House read. It noted that “when his Team Sergeant was wounded by sniper fire, Sergeant Williams exposed himself to enemy fire to come to his aid and to move him down the sheer mountainside to the casualty collection point.”

Williams helped save the lives of four critically injured American soldiers.

“This afternoon,” Trump said on at the event on Oct. 30, 2019, “it’s my privilege to present our nation’s highest and most revered military distinction. It’s called the ‘Congressional Medal of Honor.’ There’s nothing like it.”

If we’re nitpicking, the award is not actually called that. It’s just called the Medal of Honor, and during his presidency, Trump had the opportunity to award it to nearly a dozen American heroes. Garlin M. Conner, who risked his own safety to direct artillery fire in World War II. Gary M. Rose, who risked his life as a combat medic in Vietnam to provide first aid to wounded soldiers. And Williams and a half-dozen others who served in the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Ronald J. Shurer, for example, helped stabilize five wounded soldiers in April 2008. He “began evacuating them, carrying and lowering the casualties down the mountainside, using his body to shield them from enemy fire and debris,” according to the White House statement. “After he loaded the wounded in the evacuation helicopter, he retook control of his commando squad and rejoined the fight.”

A noble act — one deserving of recognition equivalent to, say, making big contributions to Donald Trump’s political campaigns.

At an event on Thursday, Trump drew just such a comparison.

The Presidential Medal of Freedom, he said at an event at his golf club in New Jersey, is “the highest award you can get as a civilian. It’s the equivalent of the Congressional Medal of Honor, but civilian version.”

“It’s actually much better,” Trump continued, “because everyone [who] gets the Congressional Medal, they’re soldiers. They’re either in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many times by bullets or they’re dead.” A moment later, he declared that the two awards are “rated equal.”

The comments came as Trump was recognizing Miriam Adelson, widow of Republican megadonor Sheldon Adelson. In November 2018, he awarded Miriam Adelson the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the nation’s highest civilian honor. The White House announcement about that award noted Adelson’s philanthropy, particularly toward Jewish causes and “research to prevent, reduce, or eliminate disabling and life-threatening illness.”

Even at the time, though, it was clear that the Adelsons’ generosity to Republican causes and Trump specifically was what placed them on the president’s radar screen. It was later revealed that the Adelsons had contributed half a million dollars to a legal fund set up to aid Trump allies swept up in the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election — a contribution made less than two months before the award ceremony.

To some extent, Trump’s diminishment of the Medal of Honor — which, again, he said there was “nothing like” in 2018 — was a function of his habit of presenting the subject at hand in hyperbolic terms. He was showering Adelson with praise and, as such, hyping the medal that he’d awarded her.

But it was also reflective of Trump’s long-standing diminishment of military service. Trump avoided the Vietnam draft with a dubious claim about bone spurs. In 1998, he told radio host Howard Stern that avoiding sexually transmitted diseases while a bachelor was his Vietnam, for which he deserved the Medal of Honor.

On the campaign trail in 2016, he insulted Sen. John S. McCain’s (R-Ariz.) Vietnam service and tenure as a prisoner of war. He insulted the parents of a service member killed in action in Iraq. As president, he reportedly declined to visit a World War II cemetery in France in part because it was filled with “losers” who had been killed in action — similar disparagement as that offered to McCain.

There’s no question that the Presidential Medal of Freedom is a significant commendation. But it is also worth comparing the achievements of those who received the award under Trump with the soldiers who were given the Medal of Honor.

As president, Trump awarded the Medal of Freedom to:

  • Basketball great Bob Cousy.
  • Wrestler Dan Gable.
  • Sen. Orrin G. Hatch.
  • Football coach Lou Holtz.
  • Rep. Jim Jordan.
  • Gen. Jack Keane.
  • Economist Art Laffer.
  • Radio host Rush Limbaugh.
  • Ronald Reagan adviser Edwin Meese.
  • Rep. Devin Nunes.
  • NFL player and judge Alan Page.
  • Businessman Roger Penske.
  • Golfer Gary Player.
  • Singer Elvis Presley.
  • Yankees pitcher Mariano Rivera.
  • Baseball great Babe Ruth.
  • Congressman and runner Jim Ryun.
  • Justice Antonin Scalia.
  • Golfer Annika Sörenstam.
  • Football great Roger Staubach.
  • Basketball great Jerry West.
  • Golfer Tiger Woods.
  • Olympian and golfer Babe Didrikson Zaharias.

and, of course, Adelson.

That’s more than a dozen figures from the sports world, seven from the world of conservative politics, one general, one Elvis and Penske (who, like Adelson, is a big Republican donor). Only Adelson was described as deserving the award solely because of her philanthropy; no other philanthropist was ever similarly recognized by Trump.

All of them, though, received a recognition that Trump on Thursday equated to the highest honor America can give to soldiers who risk their lives in combat. Mariano Rivera and Matthew Williams, Roger Staubach and Ronald J. Shurer, Miriam Adelson and Travis Atkins: all deserving of the same praise from the nation.

We didn’t discuss Atkins above. Here’s why he received the Medal of Honor, according to the White House:

“While serving in Iraq with Company D, 2d Battalion, 14th Infantry Regiment, 2d Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division, Staff Sergeant Atkins engaged in hand-to hand combat with a suspected insurgent. As he attempted to subdue the man, Staff Sergeant Atkins realized the insurgent was attempting to detonate a bomb strapped to his body. When he noticed the insurgent was about to trigger the suicide vest, Staff Sergeant Atkins tackled him, selflessly using his own body to shield his fellow soldiers from the imminent explosion. Staff Sergeant Atkins’ heroic actions, at the cost of his life, saved the lives of three of his teammates.”

Atkins is one of the recipients who, as Trump casually mentioned on Thursday, earned the medal at the cost of his life. The cost to Adelson, it seems, was pecuniary.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

One of the striking things about President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from his reelection bid is how seamlessly the criticisms Republicans applied to him have been transitioned over to Vice President Kamala Harris.

In one sense, this is obvious: Harris is Biden’s vice president, and criticisms of the Biden administration are, however justifiably, easily presented as criticisms of the Biden-Harris — or, for more adventurous Republicans, Harris-Biden — administration. But then there are things like polling released this week by YouGov, showing that about 4 in 10 Americans think it’s fair to describe Harris as “corrupt,” including more than three-quarters of Republicans.

When Biden and Donald Trump were both being painted with that brush, it was easy to see why. Biden was given that descriptor as Republicans launched (ultimately fruitless) investigations aimed at proving his corruption. Trump was given it … well, for myriad other reasons. But then Biden moved out and Harris moved in and, in addition to being slapped with pejoratives rooted in the administration in general, she’s getting dinged for personal foibles as well.

It’s almost as though — and perish the thought! — views of political candidates are rooted more in perceptions of those candidates’ politics than in their actual histories and records.

We can see a similar effect at play after the introduction of both major-party candidates’ running mates. A month ago, Trump named Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) as his vice-presidential pick. Earlier this month, Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D). And in Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos polling released Friday, we see that neither of those picks gets particularly positive ratings.

Walz does better than Vance, certainly. Lots of Americans have no opinion of the candidates, but among those who do, Walz is more positively viewed than negatively. Vance is more negatively viewed than positively.

In fact, looking at polling since 2008 in a similar post-pick time frame, Vance is unusually negatively viewed. The Post has been conducting polling with ABC News for years, and our polls in 2008, 2012 and 2020 show recently named (or incumbent) vice-presidential picks with higher favorability ratings than Vance. We have a gap in 2016, filled with polling from Gallup. Those numbers are relatively low — but still better than Vance now.

When we break out the percentage of respondents who view the candidates strongly favorably (not included in Gallup’s 2016 poll), we see that here, too, Vance stands out. Only about a fifth of respondents view Walz strongly favorably, about where Biden was when Barack Obama was seeking reelection in 2012. Vance, though, is in the single digits.

It used to be that vice-presidential candidates got something of a honeymoon period, boosted by party conventions centered on presenting them and the presidential pick in as favorable a light as possible. Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, now generally regarded as one of the less successful vice-presidential selections, received among the highest marks soon after she was picked.

Walz and Vance are still relatively unknown by more than a quarter of Americans, but their favorability numbers still aren’t near that level. Where they do fare well is within their own parties. As was the case in 2020, the two vice-presidential picks are viewed favorably by about three-quarters of their own party’s respondents. But again, Vance lags.

As was the case with YouGov polling we cited this week, Vance has lower levels of strong support within the Republican Party than does Walz in the Democratic Party. Part of the reason he’s relatively unpopular, in other words, is that Republicans themselves aren’t particularly thrilled with him.

Luckily for Trump, most people aren’t casting their vote in November based on the vice-presidential candidate. Palin was viewed quite positively at this point in 2008, and Biden quite poorly at this point in 2012. Though, in another shift since Biden dropped out, they may be paying more attention to Vance than they might otherwise have, given Trump’s age. It certainly isn’t useful that Vance’s numbers, a month after his introduction, are so soft.

What might serve as consolation is that a lot of the non-Republican indifference to Vance would probably apply to anyone Trump had picked. The Republican indifference, though, is not what his party might want to see.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

Former president Donald Trump is continuing to make millions off his properties, book royalties and licensing deals while maintaining large liabilities stemming from costly court judgments, according to his latest financial disclosure.

The disclosure released Thursday provides the latest picture of the Republican presidential nominee’s extensive finances, detailing how Trump, the former president and real estate tycoon, has been making money since leaving office and launching a 2024 bid. However, because candidates are only required to report their assets and liabilities in broad ranges, the overview of Trump’s finances coming out of the disclosure is imprecise.

Trump reported income of at least $635 million from assets described as real estate, hotels, resorts and golf properties, according to the more than 250-page document released by the Federal Election Commission. He reported more than 20 assets as being worth over $50 million, the highest category.

The form’s list of liabilities shows that Trump paid off the mortgage on his Chicago property, financed through Deutsche Bank and valued between $25 million and $50 million, in October 2023. That was the same month Trump’s civil fraud trial kicked off. The judge in the case ultimately found that Trump inflated the value of his assets to attain more favorable loan rates, including from Deutsche Bank. The financial disclosure also states that a mortgage on Trump Plaza was paid off in April of this year.

The disclosure lists liabilities in excess of $50 million owed to both the New York attorney general and writer E. Jean Carroll.

In February, a New York judge ordered Trump to pay at least $454 million in a civil fraud case.

Separately, he faces an $83.3 million judgment in a federal defamation case brought by Carroll. Trump has posted bonds in both judgments, which he is appealing.

A large segment of Trump’s net worth is currently tied to his majority stake in shares — 114,750,000 shares in total — of Trump Media & Technology Group, the company behind Trump’s social media network, Truth Social. A lockup period, the disclosure notes, prevents Trump from selling the shares for six months following the company going public in March.

Trump also gained millions through recent deals leveraging his name and likeness on physical and digital products.

Earlier this year, Trump urged his supporters to buy $59.99 Bibles that included a handwritten chorus to “God Bless the USA” by singer and supporter Lee Greenwood. Trump made some $300,000 in royalties from “The Greenwood Bible,” according to the disclosure.

The former president also made millions in royalties from the sale of post-presidency books, with the form showing $4.4 million from “Letters to Trump” — which retails for $99 or $399 signed by Trump — and about half a million dollars from “A MAGA Journey.”

The publisher behind the books, Winning Team Publishing, was started by Trump ally Sergio Gor and Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr. Along with books by Trump, other Trump allies, such as Charlie Kirk, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Arizona Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake all have books published through Winning Team. Campaign finance data shows that Republican political committees and campaigns have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars for books and printing-related services from the publisher.

Although Trump was once a cryptocurrency critic going so far as to call bitcoin a scam in 2021, he owns between $1 million and $5 million in the cryptocurrency ethereum through CIC Digital LLC — which licenses Trump’s likeness for non-fungible tokens or NFTs.

Several versions of the NFTs have been released, including a “MugShot edition” in 2023. Those willing to buy 100 digital trading cards would receive “a piece of President Trump’s Suit from the Mugshot,” according to the website collecttrumpcards.com.

Along with the $1 million to $5 million in ethereum held in a cryptocurrency wallet, the form states that Trump received income of $7.1 million through a licensing agreement for the NFT project.

Former first lady Melania Trump also reported that her top source of income, around $330,000, came from a licensing agreement for the sale of collectible NFTs. Her second-highest source of income came from her appearance at an event hosted by Log Cabin Republicans, an LGBTQ+ Republican group, in Palm Beach, Fla., this past April, earning $237,500.

The Post previously reported that the former first lady hosted a fundraiser for the group at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach in April. It was one of her only public political appearances throughout her husband’s 2024 run.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, and her husband, Doug Emhoff, reported a total income of $450,380 in 2023, according to 2023 tax returns released by the White House.

Amy B Wang and Marianne Levine contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

Independent presidential candidate Cornel West will not appear on November’s ballot in the swing state of Michigan, state election officials said Friday.

West’s ballot access was denied over notary issues, according to a letter from the state’s director of elections. He also faced a separate lawsuit filed by a local activist who alleged that his petition didn’t have enough qualifying signatures.

West’s absence from the ballot in a state that is expected to see a tight race comes as Democrats have challenged his ballot access in other states amid concerns that he could take left-leaning voters away from the Democratic ticket.

After the news of the denial, West’s campaign said it would appeal the decision, although West cannot submit a revised petition, according to state law. The department told the campaign it has five days to rebut the disqualification after the campaign didn’t previously respond to the election officials’ notification of the challenge on July 26.

“The charges regarding procedural errors in our filings, such as notarization specifics, are trivial technicalities being weaponized to distract from substantive policy debates,” West adviser Edwin DeJesus said in a statement. “We are confident that these accusations will be seen for what they are — frivolous and unfounded attempts to stifle opposition and debate.”

The letter to the West campaign listed four issues with West’s affidavit of identity, which is one of the required documents. It said the issues include the notarization being incomplete and having it on the wrong page.

State law does not provide for a candidate to resubmit a corrected affidavit, and the secretary of state’s office has consistently rejected similarly flawed affidavits previously, a spokeswoman said.

Michigan law also lays out a specific deadline for candidate-filing petitions, which must include the identity affidavit, of 4 p.m. on the 110th day before the election. This year, that deadline fell on July 18.

West is on the ballot in Utah, Colorado, South Carolina and Alaska, and his newly founded political party, Justice for All, recently won access on North Carolina’s ballot.

West’s criticism of the Biden-Harris administration’s support of Israel during the war in Gaza has earned him support among left-leaning voters. In Michigan, home to the nation’s largest Arab American and Muslim population, the independent candidate could have found support.

However, West has not gained much ground in recent polling, as support has consolidated around the major two-party candidates, former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

No Michigan voters said they planned to vote for West in a New York Times and Siena College poll conducted from Aug. 5 to 9. The Green Party’s Jill Stein, who has had a similar stance on Israel to West’s, did slightly better, with 1 percent among registered voters. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was at 5 percent.

Nicole Markus contributed to this report.

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The charter plane carrying former president Donald Trump’s running mate Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) made an emergency landing in Milwaukee after a door seal malfunction, the campaign said Friday.

The plane, a Boeing 737, declared an emergency shortly after it had left the airport in Milwaukee and returned for repairs, campaign spokesperson Taylor Van Kirk said in a statement. The issue was resolved, and the plane continued to Cincinnati, where Vance lives. Vance was in Milwaukee for a campaign event at the city’s police association.

The emergency landing comes a week after Trump’s plane was diverted as he headed to Montana for a rally last Friday.

Boeing has faced greater scrutiny for its assembly process of the 737 Max — the updated version of the older 737 model used by Vance — after an Alaska Airlines flight in January experienced a midair blowout leaving a hole in the fuselage.

Vance was traveling with his wife, his dog, campaign staff members and a traveling pool of reporters.

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Before Vice President Kamala Harris replaced President Joe Biden as the Democrats’ 2024 standard-bearer, there was legitimate talk about Donald Trump potentially stretching the presidential race into more states.

While everyone had focused like a laser on the six swing states Biden won in 2020 — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Republicans played up polls showing Virginia surprisingly tight, for instance. They set their sights on Minnesota, a state that hasn’t gone red since 1972. New Hampshire looked like it might reclaim its past swing-state status. Trump even speculated (much less plausibly) about flipping quite-blue New Jersey.

Today, each of those states has drifted away from Trump, and it’s the ascendant Harris who can credibly claim the power to expand the map.

But by how much?

Harris’s momentum in the presidential race has surely placed a newfound emphasis on North Carolina, a second-tier swing state that Biden lost by 1.3 points in 2020. But beyond that, finding other 2020 red states to put in play could be difficult, with the next likeliest candidate seeming to be Florida.

North Carolina

The signs for Democrats in North Carolina — where both Trump and Harris are campaigning this week — are increasingly encouraging.

A Cook Political Report poll this week showed Harris asserting a one-point advantage, 48 percent to 47 percent, which is well within the margin of error. But notably outside the margin of error was Democrats’ overall advantage. Cook also asked North Carolina voters to choose between a generic Democrat and a generic Republican, and they chose the Democrat by eight points, 48-40.

Both findings marked big shifts from May, when the same poll favored Trump over Biden by seven points and the generic Republican by one. None of the other six states that Cook surveyed shifted toward Democrats as much.

We regrettably don’t have much other high-quality data in North Carolina since Harris’s entry. But there are other reasons to think Democrats could put the state in play.

One is that the previous Democratic pessimism about it probably stemmed from having been stung before. Barack Obama’s 2008 win was the party’s first since 1976, and Democrats have been stymied in their efforts to repeat the feat. Obama lost it by two points in 2012, Hillary Clinton lost it by 3.7 points in 2016, and Biden lost it by 1.3 in 2020.

But those were close races, meaning it’s not as if Democrats need to move the needle that much. And despite Democrats’ frustrations, North Carolina actually trended away from Trump in 2020 more than Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada did.

Democrats also have to feel good about the other statewide race on the ballot there: the governor’s race. Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) carries all kinds of baggage into that race by virtue of his incendiary and extreme comments — the kind of baggage that has hurt Republicans consistently in recent Senate and governor’s races.

Whether that would actually have an impact on the top of that ticket is an open question, but Democrats could surely tie Trump and Robinson together given their shared history of extreme comments.

Florida

Florida is about the only other red state that appears to be a plausible pickup for Democrats at this point. But it’s likely to be significantly more difficult to flip.

While the most recent high-quality polling suggests it’s in the realm of possibility, Florida isn’t any closer than it was in 2020, when Trump won the state by 3.4 points. A University of Northern Florida poll in late July showed Trump leading Harris by seven, while a Suffolk University poll this week showed Trump up five in a crowded field.

Florida was also the only competitive state in 2020 that actually shifted toward Trump from four years prior; Trump’s margin increased by more than two points. (Among all states, only Hawaii and Utah shifted more toward Trump.)

And the Suffolk poll suggests that, even as the race is within the mid-single digits, it might be difficult for Harris to make up the gap. While just 40 percent said they approved of her performance as vice president, for instance, 56 percent said they approved of Trump’s time as president. And Harris did no better than Biden in 2020 among independent and Hispanic voters.

If there’s an argument for Harris potentially putting the state in play right now, it’s in that potential down-ballot effect — specifically, a constitutional amendment that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution.

The Suffolk poll showed voters favored the measure 58-35, while the UNF poll showed they favored it 69-23. They’re merely the latest polls to suggest Florida’s abortion measure could rack up a bigger margin than similar measures in other politically competitive states did in recent years. Republicans have struggled to account for this, with Trump (a Florida resident) declining thus far to even take a position.

The Suffolk poll also showed Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who faces reelection, is quite unpopular — 35 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable — in ways that could affect the appeal of the GOP side of the ballot. But so far he leads by a similar margin to Trump.

It’s also worth emphasizing that if Florida is in play, Harris will probably already be well on track to win the presidency. It’s plausible that North Carolina could prove crucial to Harris’s electoral-college-majority math, but Florida would probably signal a much bigger shift across the country.

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