Author

admin

Browsing

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a brief Easter ceasefire in his war with Ukraine, saying “all hostilities” will pause for a two-day period.

There has been no immediate response from Ukraine, but if Kyiv accepts it will be the first pause in the conflict since Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion.

Russian fighting will halt between 6 p.m. Moscow time on Saturday (11 a.m. ET) and midnight on Monday (5 p.m. Sunday ET), Putin said.

“We assume that the Ukrainian side will follow our example,” he added.

The truce will help Russia determine how sincere Kyiv is about wanting to reach a ceasefire, Putin said.

The announcement comes at a pivotal time for the war. On the ground, Russia continues to make gains, claiming the capture of another settlement in the Kursk border region while US-led peace efforts are stuttering.

On Friday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that the US was ready to “move on” from efforts to bring peace to Ukraine within days if there were no tangible signs of progress.

Ukraine has previously been skeptical about such temporary pauses in conflict, having rejected a temporary ceasefire in January 2023 believing that Russia had ulterior motives in calling for a stop to the fighting, such as using the pause to bring in more troops.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The timing, the brevity, the sudden, unilateral nature of it all. If Ukraine’s allies needed proof of Moscow’s wild cynicism when it comes to peace, the announcement of an immediate truce for Easter provided just that.

It came mere hours after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and his boss president Donald Trump said they would need in the coming days an urgent sign that the Kremlin was serious about peace.

For Russia’s proponents, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement on Saturday looked like a nod to Trump – but the sudden declaration is so riddled with practical flaws, before it even gets out of the box, that it is likely to be simply used by Putin to support his false notion Kyiv does not want his war to stop.

It will be a logistical nightmare for Ukraine‘s forces to suddenly, immediately stop fighting at Putin’s behest. Some front line positions may be in the middle of fierce clashes when this order comes through, and a cessation of this nature likely requires days of preparation and readiness.

Misinformation is bound to confuse troops about the truce’s implementation, how to report or respond to violations, and even what to do when it comes to an end.

It is possible this moment will prove a rare sign that both sides can stop violence for short period. But it is significantly more likely they will both use violations and confusion to show their opponent cannot be trusted. As of Saturday evening local time, Ukrainian officials said Russian strikes had continued in frontline areas.

The ongoing 30-day truce limited to energy infrastructure was born in conditions of complete chaos. The White House announced that “energy and infrastructure” were covered, the Kremlin said they’d immediately stopped attacks on “energy infrastructure”, and Ukraine said the truce started a week later than the Kremlin did. Its execution has been equally mired in mistrust and accusations of breaches.

Moscow made a similar unilateral declaration in January 2023, calling for a day of peace to allow Orthodox Christians to observe Christmas – a move that Kyiv and Western leaders dismissed at the time as a strategic pause for military purposes.

A genuine truce requires negotiation with your opponent, and preparations for it to take hold. The sudden rush of this seems designed entirely to placate the White House demands for some sign that Russia is willing to stop fighting. It will likely feed Trump’s at times pro-Moscow framing of the conflict. It may also cause complexities for Ukraine when they are inevitably accused of violating what Washington may consider to be a goodwill gesture by Moscow.

Ultimately, this brief, likely theoretical, probably rhetorical and entirely unilateral stop to a three-year war, is likely to do more damage to the role of diplomacy in the coming months than it does to support it.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue the war in Gaza in the face of growing opposition to Israel’s ongoing military campaign.

In a pre-recorded video Saturday night, Netanyahu said Israel has “no choice” but to keep fighting “for our very own existence until victory.” The long-time Israeli leader called for “perseverance and resilience” in order to destroy Hamas and bring back the remaining 59 hostages.

Netanyahu pointed to Hamas’ recent rejection of an Israeli ceasefire proposal as a reason Israel will continue its bombardment of Gaza. Israel’s proposal called for a disarmament of Gaza and did not include a permanent end to the war, both of which have been red lines for Hamas.

“If we surrender to Hamas’s demands now, all the tremendous achievements gained by our soldiers, our fallen, and our wounded heroes—those achievements will simply be lost,” Netanyahu said.

He argued that allowing Hamas to remain in Gaza means “President [Donald] Trump’s important vision could never be realized.” Trump has called for moving Palestinians out of Gaza to other countries and redeveloping the coastal enclave into a “Riviera of the Middle East.” He has also floated the idea of US ownership of the narrow strip of land, which is home to more than 2 million Palestinians.

The Hostage Families Forum Headquarters criticized the Israeli premier’s taped statement.

“Many words and slogans will not succeed in hiding the simple truth — Netanyahu has no plan,” the forum said. “It’s no surprise there was no time for questions — otherwise, he would have had to answer the most basic one: What exactly is the State of Israel doing to immediately bring back all 59 hostages?”

Netanyahu also mentioned Iran during his statement, just hours after the US and Iran concluded their second round of talks on Tehran’s nuclear program. “I’m committed to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon,” he said. “I will not give up on this, I will not let go.”

Calls grow to end the war

Netanyahu’s speech comes amid growing protest and opposition to the ongoing military campaign.

Thousands of Israeli military reservists and retirees have signed public letters calling for a ceasefire deal to return all of the hostages, even at the cost of ending the war. The letters have now come from an increasing number of military units, including elite intelligence and commando units, as well as civilian professions.

Many Israelis prioritize a deal to return the hostages, even if it means ending the war, according to recent polling. A poll from Israel’s Channel 12 News, released late-last month, indicated that nearly 70% supported such a deal, while only 21% opposed an end to the war.

A two-month ceasefire that saw 33 Israeli and five Thai hostages released from captivity collapsed on March 18 when Israel renewed its bombardment of Gaza. Israel and the US blamed Hamas for the ceasefire’s end.

Shortly before Netanyahu’s statement, his spokesman, Omer Dostri, said “it’s not possible to bring everyone back,” calling it “a spin.” Speaking to Channel 12 News, Dostri added, “Right now, it’s not possible to make a single ‘all for all’ deal, because Hamas is demanding an end to the war and a withdrawal from Gaza.”

The leader of Israel’s opposition, Yair Lapid, said Dostri’s comments were “an admission that the Israeli government has given up on the effort to bring the hostages home.” Lapid called for Netanyahu to clarify the government’s position. In a statement on social media, he said, “If this is the Prime Minister’s official stance, he should stand up and say it himself. If not, he should apologize on behalf of his spokesperson.”

Netanyahu pre-recorded statement released a short time later did not address his spokesman’s comments.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Hong Kong’s oldest and largest pro-democracy political party is moving to disband as Beijing’s sweeping crackdown on the city leaves even moderate opposition groups with no room to operate.

“The message was that the party has to be disbanded or there will be consequences,” said one of them, Yeung Sum, a former Democratic Party chairman.

Fred Li, a former lawmaker, said a Chinese official told him that the party should not remain until the end of this year, when an election will be held.

Founded by liberal lawyers and academics three years before the former British colony’s 1997 handover to China, the Democratic Party had campaigned for universal suffrage and on matters from labor rights to conservation during a period when such issues were openly discussed in the city.

Widely seen as moderates willing to work with Beijing, Democratic Party leaders had spearheaded a significant voting bloc in the city’s legislature and were regularly afforded space to critique local government policy, until mass pro-democracy protests in 2019 ushered in a new and more restrictive political era.

Beijing’s crackdown in the years since, including the prosecution and jailing of pro-democracy leaders, has left the once-influential party rudderless as it contends with sweeping national security legislation and “patriots only” electoral reforms enacted in 2021 that make it nearly impossible for opposition candidates to stand for the city’s legislature.

Democratic Party chairman Lo Kin-hei told a news conference last Sunday that 90% of about 110 party members had voted to delegate power to a committee to start the dissolution process, adding he hoped a final vote would take place in the coming months.

“I hope Hong Kong’s political parties… will continue to work for the people,” Lo said. “We have always hoped to serve the Hong Kong people, and to do things that are good for society.”

The Democrats’ move to disband demonstrates Beijing’s unwillingness to allow even the mildest of dissenting voices to be heard in Hong Kong, say analysts.

John Burns, emeritus professor at the University of Hong Kong (HKU), said the party had “symbolized the promise of some kind of democratic development in Hong Kong, leading to universal suffrage as promised in the Basic Law,” referring to the city’s mini-constitution.

“A dissolution of the party reflects official Hong Kong’s turn away from popular participation, locally accountable government, and increased transparency toward more authoritarian rule,” Burns said.

Eric Lai, a research fellow at the Georgetown Center for Asian Law, said the Democrats’ move “shows there are no more feasible ways for groups to exist as an opposition party.”

“It’s self-conflicting for the government to suggest that nothing has changed,” he said.

Criticism of the government remains permitted in Hong Kong, “however strong, vigorous or critical” it may be, so long as it is “based on facts,” the spokesperson said. The Hong Kong government would “continue to resolutely discharge the duty of safeguarding national security,” they added.

No space for compromise

The Democrats had enjoyed relative political freedom following Hong Kong’s return to Chinese rule, even holding more seats than any other party in the mostly pro-Beijing legislature until 2004.

The party’s leaders were often the figureheads of major demonstrations, including an annual June 4 vigil to commemorate the Tiananmen Square massacre and a well-attended pro-democracy march held every July. (Neither event would be permitted on the Chinese mainland, and both are now effectively banned in Hong Kong).

But support for the Democrats plunged in 2010 after its leaders negotiated directly for universal suffrage with officials from Beijing’s liaison office in Hong Kong – a move seen as a betrayal by other pro-democracy groups.

The party was then pushed further to the sidelines by the emergence of a new generation of pro-democracy leaders and student activists during months-long protests for universal suffrage in 2014.

However, when anti-government demonstrators returned to Hong Kong’s streets en masse in 2019, the Democrats’ popularity resurged as many of its leaders stood on the front lines of the massive – and sometimes violent – protests that rocked the financial hub.

Later that year, the Democratic Party was the biggest winner in local district council elections. But its participation in the protests also drew the ire of Hong Kong authorities and Beijing, paving the way for its demise.

“The party made mistakes when it failed to draw a clear line between itself and radical separatists calling for Hong Kong’s independence from 2014-2020,” said Burns, from HKU. “Authorities have punished the party, jailing and chasing out Democratic Party leaders.”

Over the past five years, the space for the Democrats to maneuver has been increasingly squeezed by Chinese authorities.

In 2020, Beijing imposed a sweeping national security law on Hong Kong, introducing the maximum sentence of life imprisonment for four main crimes of secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces.

A year later, the Chinese government rewrote Hong Kong’s electoral rules to require candidates to seek nomination from pro-Beijing groups, essentially excluding the opposition from elections. A legislature filled with Beijing loyalists last year unanimously passed a law expanding the scope of national security offenses.

Beijing and the Hong Kong government argued that the electoral changes had enhanced democracy and have repeatedly defended the security laws as restoring order and returning prosperity to the city. But critics say they have curtailed freedoms and had a “chilling effect” on civil society, including independent institutions and the media.

Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at SOAS University of London, said political and social protests seen as challenging state security are “becoming increasingly if not well-nigh impossible.”

“Many other elements of civil rights, including that of speech and organizing political parties have also been severely curtailed,” he added.

Last year, five former Democratic Party lawmakers were among 45 opposition figures sentenced to prison terms of up to 10 years after they were found guilty of subversion for taking part in an election primary in 2020.

National security police have also placed HK$1 million ($129,000) bounties on pro-democracy activists who fled overseas, including an Australia-based former Democratic Party lawmaker accused of secession, subversion and collusion with a foreign country.

Meanwhile, the trial of media tycoon and outspoken democracy supporter Jimmy Lai is ongoing, more than four years after he was detained on charges of colluding with foreign forces, which he denies.

The Democratic Party’s announcement last weekend follows the dissolution of almost 100 civil and pro-democracy organizations in Hong Kong in the wake of Beijing’s crackdown.

The party had tried to survive as a civic group in recent years but struggled to raise funds as multiple private venues canceled their events, often at the last minute.

Former Democratic Party lawmaker Emily Lau said the party’s move to disband was “very sad.”

“I don’t know what they are thinking in Beijing. We have demonstrated, not just words, but by action, that we are reasonable. We are willing to talk, to negotiate, to compromise, reach a deal and go forward.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Canada is heading into federal elections, where Prime Minister Mark Carney is vying for a chance to continue leading the country, as tensions grow with its closest neighbor.

The former central banker’s main competition is Pierre Poilievre, Canada’s Conservative party leader whose political capital has declined as US-Canada relations nosedive amid threats from US President Donald Trump.

Canadians do not vote directly for prime minister – they vote for lawmakers representing political parties in their district or riding. The party with the largest number of lawmakers elected to parliament will form the government, and its leader will become prime minister.

While Carney’s Liberal Party and Poilievre’s Conservative Party are the frontrunners, other major political parties will also be on the ballot, including left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) led by Jagmeet Singh, the Green Party and the exclusively-Quebec-based Bloc Québécois.

Trade war and house prices

Poilievre was the favorite to win when former prime minister Justin Trudeau stepped down last month. But Trump’s steep tariffs on Canada, and threats to its sovereignty, dramatically transformed the race.

Trump’s decision to levy a 25% duty on Canadian steel and aluminum, cars and car parts, and threats to tariff pharmaceuticals and lumber have shaken Canadian businesses. It’s a reality Carney has not sugarcoated, warning of “tough days ahead” with pressure on Canadian employment.

“These tariffs are fundamentally damaging to the American economy and by extension to the global economy,” Carney told a press conference this month after Trump announced sweeping tariffs, which partially spared Canada but sent global markets into chaos.

Canadians are also grappling with the high cost of living, especially an affordable housing crisis – an issue likely to feel the sting of a trade war with the US.

The Ontario Home Builders’ Association warned last month that tariffs and counter-tariffs on steel and aluminum products would likely drive up the costs of construction materials, making building and buying new homes more expensive, worsening the housing affordability issue.

US and Canadian tariffs on automobiles, for example, will make cars more expensive on both sides of the border, says economist Randall Morck, a professor at the University of Alberta’s business school.

“Stock prices have gone down, so everybody is poorer,” he said, adding that this likely reflects investors’ estimates that recession and higher unemployment could be on the horizon.

Finance man versus the career politician

Carney, a political newcomer, has not ruled out continued talks with Trump, but he has been moving to deepen ties with more “reliable” allies. In an unusual move, his first prime ministerial trip abroad was to Europe where he spoke to French and British officials about deepening security, military and economic ties.

While a rookie politician, unlike his challenger, Carney’s decades in finance saw him steering governments through major global crises and periods of upheaval. As governor of the Bank of England, he helped the United Kingdom navigate Brexit – which he said mirrors what can happen to the US in the face of tariffs.

“I have seen this movie before. I know exactly what’s going to happen to them, the Americans are going to get weaker,” he said at a campaign event in Ontario this month.

Many Canadians see Carney as someone well-placed to navigate a trade war with a long-standing ally, experts say.

“In a crisis it’s important to come together and it’s essential to act with purpose and with force. And that’s what we will do,” Carney said earlier this month as he positioned himself as the person to take on the US president.

Tensions with the US have slowed the ascent of Poilievre, a career politician who served as a cabinet member in former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative government. Throughout his campaign he has aimed to appeal to working-class Canadians, painting himself as someone outside the “Ottawa elite” and casting himself as a family man.

Poilievre’s fiery rhetoric about slashing tax and bureaucracy, and his populist “Canada First” policy have won him supporters tired of Liberal rule. But Poilievre now appears to be distancing himself fro comparisons to US President Donald Trump; he has slammed Trump’s threats to make Canada the 51st US state, supported reciprocal tariffs and repeatedly declared he is “not MAGA.”

His decades of political experience and modest background – as the son of two schoolteachers – also set him apart from Trump, says Charles-Etienne Beaudry, political science professor at the University of Ottawa and author of “Radio Trump: How he won the first time.”

Experts say Carney’s lead over Poilievre has widened primarily because the ex-banker has been more vocal than his opponent about how exactly Canada will forge trade ties with other countries and organize retaliatory tariffs.

“I expect that [voters] are going to vote for the candidate that they think will minimize the cost of the trade war with the US,” says Morck, the economist, pointing to the level of anti-American sentiment and distrust among Canadians. “I haven’t seen anything like it since the Vietnam war.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Capital One Financial’s application to acquire Discover Financial Services in a $35.3 billion all-stock deal has officially been approved by the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the regulators announced on Friday.

“The Board evaluated the application under the statutory factors it is required to consider, including the financial and managerial resources of the companies, the convenience and needs of the communities to be served by the combined organization, and the competitive and financial stability impacts of the proposal,” the Fed said in a release.

Capital One first announced it had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Discover in February 2024. It will also indirectly acquire Discover Bank through the transaction, which was approved by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on Friday.

Under the agreement, Discover shareholders will receive 1.0192 Capital One shares for each Discover share or about a 26% premium from Discover’s closing price of $110.49 at the time, Capital One said in a release.

Capital One and Discover are among the largest credit card issuers in the U.S., and the merger will expand Capital One’s deposit base and its credit card offerings. 

As a condition of the merger, Capital One said it will comply with the Fed’s action against Discover, according to the release. The Fed fined Discover $100 million for overcharging certain interchange fees from 2007 through 2023, and the company is repaying those fees to affected customers.

The OCC said it approved Capital One’s application on the condition that it would take “corrective actions” to remediate harm and address the “root causes” of outstanding enforcement actions against Discover.

After the deal closes, Capital One shareholders will hold 60% of the combined company, while Discover shareholders own 40%, according to the February 2024 release.

In a joint statement, Capital One and Discover said they expect to close the deal on May 18.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Technically, it’s rather clear that we remain in a downtrend. However, not all downtrends are created equal. Some are built to last, while others can turn around quickly. Recognizing the difference is obviously quite important. What most traders/investors cannot grasp is that secular (long-term) bull markets often see corrections or cyclical (short-term) bear markets. Both of these are much, much different than a secular bear market and present tremendous opportunity. Many market participants believe every downturn is the start of a lengthy secular bear market and that’s a problem. Always believing the worst-case scenario makes it incredibly difficult to benefit from cheaper prices by entering stocks during downtrends. By waiting and watching the market move higher again, market participants will be forced to buy back in much higher due to FOMO, or the fear of missing out.

Trading out and then back in purely based on emotion – panicking out and then getting back in due to the fear of missing out – is the exact way to ruin any hope of financial success in the stock market. The first question I’d ask everyone is….do you believe that the big Wall Street firms get out of the stock market (or rotate to safer stocks) before you and me? Then, do you believe they get back into aggressive areas of the market before you and me? If you answered yes to both questions, we have something in common. If you believe that stock market performance is random, then we can’t be friends. (just kidding)

I have a way of proving my theory that Wall Street manipulates all of us and I’ll get to that in a bit. First, though, from a purely technical perspective, there is one major industry group that I look to for relative performance during uptrends and downtrends, an aggressive area that helps to provide us clues about the possible future direction of the overall stock market. When these groups are leading on a relative basis, it’s difficult to keep the S&P 500 down. But when they’re lagging, it opens the door to potential market tops and not-so-great action ahead.

This group shouldn’t be a big surprise.

Semiconductors ($DJUSSC)

Semiconductors are used in so many things that we buy nowadays, so it makes perfect sense that the performance of this industry group not only can determine which way the S&P 500 is going to go, but it also provides us a sense of what Wall Street believes about our economy. As the economy improves (or is expected to improve), this group typically explodes in anticipation of that demand. The following 10-year weekly chart of the S&P 500 and the relative strength of semiconductors ($DJUSSC:$SPX) illustrates perfectly my point:

Since early 2016, the S&P 500 has seen its weekly PPO move below zero four times. Just before or at the time of those bearish crossovers, the DJUSSC rolled over on a relative basis vs. the S&P 500. Wall Street was selling ahead of the crowd, getting out before telling you and me to get out. You can also see in that bottom panel that it resulted in inverse, or negative, correlation. Over the past 10 years, inverse correlation hasn’t happened often. Typically, a strong semiconductor group is accompanied by a strong market, and vice versa.

On the price chart, the blue directional lines on the DJUSSC:$SPX relative price chart mostly accompanies the S&P 500 moving higher (blue-shaded area). Likewise, the red directional lines on the DJUSSC:$SPX relative price chart mostly accompanies the S&P 500 moving lower. But it’s when the DJUSSC and $SPX do NOT move in the same direction that we should take notice.

I believe we’re in a bottoming phase in the stock market. I could certainly be wrong, but I think my track record calling market bottoms is fairly solid. If I’m correct this time, then we should see the DJUSSC start to turn higher on a relative basis on a daily chart. That hasn’t happened yet. Take a look:

On this daily chart, we continue to see very positive correlation, confirming that the DJUSSC and the SPX both tend to move in the same direction. So it stands to reason that if the S&P 500 can clear key price resistance at 5521 and the DJUSSC:SPX relative strength line breaks above its current downtrend resistance, then I’d say the bottom is confirmed. I’d keep an eye on this chart moving forward.

Noise or Reality?

Any time we’re setting new highs or new lows, this is my primary question. Bottoms always form when the market “noise” or “news” is terribly bad. Moving off of lows happens when Wall Street looks 6 to 9 months down the road and sees brighter skies. We can’t feel it, but Wall Street sees it. It’s like we’re brainwashed into believing that today’s bad or uncertain news will carry the stock market lower and lower, when in reality, we’re simply being manipulated as a market bottom approaches.

I want you to join me on Saturday morning, April 19th, at 10am ET for a very important session, “Bear Market 2025: Separate Noise from Reality.” I will discuss several key factors that you need to be aware of RIGHT NOW. You may have already made up your mind as to where the S&P 500 is heading….and that’s totally fine! But making very important financial decisions without considering ALL market angles would be a huge mistake, in my view.

To gain access to our FREE event Saturday, CLICK HERE for more information and to register. Seats are limited, so please register now to avoid being shut out. Also, if you’re reading this AFTER our event, you should still register, because we will be happy to send you a recording of the event to check it out at your leisure.

Happy trading!

Tom

Stocks vs. bonds? In this video, Julius breaks down the asset allocation outlook and why defensive sectors, large-cap value, and bonds may continue to outperform in this volatile market. He starts at the asset allocation level using Relative Rotation Graphs (RRGs) to analyze stocks vs bonds performance, then highlights the ongoing defensive sector rotation, and identifies strength in large-cap value stocks.

To close out the show, Julius dives into stock-specific opportunities based on the relative rotation of sector constituents, pointing to potential leadership shifts as market volatility rises.

This video was originally published on April 17, 2025. Click on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past videos from Julius can be found here.

#StayAlert, -Julius

In this video, Grayson unveils StockCharts’ new Market Summary ChartPack—an incredibly valuable new ChartPack packed full of pre-built charts covering breadth, sentiment, volatility data and MUCH MORE!

From there, Grayson then breaks down what he’s seeing on the current Market Summary dashboard, illustrating how he’s putting this invaluable tool to work in the current climate. He highlights weakness in Small Cap stocks, uses the Factors Map to pinpoint the groups that investors are gravitating to, and explains why the sea of red across the breadth maps continues to be a clear indication of the weakness in this market.

This video originally premiered on April 18, 2024. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

It was another erratic week in the stock market. There were several market-moving events sprinkled throughout this short trading week, including earnings, escalation of tariff wars, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Economic Club of Chicago. This extended to wild swings in the bond market as well.

We had several positive earnings from banks and Netflix, Inc. (NFLX). Others, such as UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH), disappointed, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) lower by 1.33%.

Chairman Powell stated that tariffs could increase inflation. This would cause economic growth to slow down and unemployment to increase. The hope is that inflation is transitory, and, after it becomes stable, the Fed can continue to focus on its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.

It’s an insecure time for investors, and many feel the pain. You’re probably wondering how long this pain will go on for. In an uncertain environment, the best you can do is turn to the bond market.

It’s All About Bonds

The recent wild swinging market activity can be encapsulated in the price action of Treasury yields. Since 2024, yields have been swinging up and down. In the past year, the 10-year Treasury yield has ranged from 3.60% to 4.81%, and when the range is this wide, it’s an indication of economic instability. Not to mention, economic instability could result in a weaker economy.

The daily chart of the 10-Year US Treasury Yield Index ($TNX) gives you an idea of the range of yields in the last year. More recently, the yield has risen from 3.89% to 4.59%, and has now pulled back to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS. Yields have been seeing some large up and down swings.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Generally, when stock prices fall, bond prices rise. Since bond yields move inversely to bond prices, you’d expect yields to fall. This scenario isn’t playing out. Instead, we’re seeing yields move erratically while bond prices remain suppressed. There needs to be stability in bond yields before a stock market recovery, and one way to do that is to monitor the chart of the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate, referred to as the MOVE Index ($MOVE).

The MOVE Index tracks bond volatility. Think of it as the bond counterpart to the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX). The chart below displays the $MOVE/$VIX relationship, with the correlation between the two in the lower panel.

FIGURE 2. THE MOVE INDEX VS. VIX. A high correlation between the MOVE Index and VIX suggests interest rates and stock prices are tightly connected. A lower correlation would indicate stability in equities.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The two have been highly correlated since the end of March, which indicates that stocks and interest rates are tightly connected. This means the wild up and down swings in equities could continue. When the two are less correlated, we can expect equities to start settling down. Looking at the above chart, a correlation of 0.80 would be sufficient for signs of stability.

Both $VIX and $MOVE have come back slightly, but their correlation is at 0.93, which is relatively high.

Be sure to save both charts displayed in this article to your ChartLists. They could alert you to stability in the stock market ahead of other indicators.

The Bottom Line

Until stability returns, you could do the following:

  • Stay on the sidelines and keep some dry powder.
  • Invest in risk-off instruments such as gold and silver.
  • Park some of your money in defensive sectors.

Equities could slide lower before stability returns. If this happens, you could pick up some growth stocks for a bargain.

An empowered investor comes out ahead after market instability. So monitor the market closely and, when the time is right, make wise investment decisions.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 down 1.50% on the week, at 5282.70, Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.66% on the week at 39,142.23; Nasdaq Composite down 2.62% on the week at 16,286.45.
  • $VIX down 21.06% on the week, closing at 29.65.
  • Best performing sector for the week: Energy
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Consumer Discretionary
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Elbit Systems, Ltd. (ESLT); Anglogold Ashanti Ltd. (AU); Just Eat Takeaway.com (JTKWY); Kinross Gold Corp. (KGC)

On the Radar Next Week

  • Earnings season continues with Haliburton (HAL), Tesla (TSLA), Boeing Co. (BA), International Business Machines (IBM) and others reporting.
  • 30-Year Mortgage Rates
  • March New Home Sales and Building Permits
  • April S&P PMI
  • April Consumer Sentiment
  • Fed speeches from Jefferson, Harker, Kashkari, and others.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.