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CHICAGO — Organizers of the Democratic National Convention have decided not to award a speaking slot to a speaker who would talk about the impact of Israel’s military operation in Gaza, according to a person familiar with the convention planning who spoke on the condition of anonymity to disclose a decision that was not yet public.

Representatives of “uncommitted” delegates to the convention — who have been withholding their support for Vice President Kamala Harris to protest the Biden administration’s staunch support of Israel amid the war in Gaza — had been pressing for one of several speakers to be allowed to address the delegates about the devastation in Gaza.

Those making the request were not given a reason for the denial. But many Democratic leaders were concerned that such a speech from the podium would threaten the unity that has been on vivid display at the convention.

“That’s unacceptable to us. This is not over,” said Abbas Alawieh, co-founder of the Uncommitted National Movement.

The decision, which was finalized after the program on the third night of the convention had already begun, was a stinging blow to leaders of the “uncommitted” movement, who had been asking for a speaking slot for someone who would recount the impact of the war in Gaza.

Representatives of the roughly three dozen uncommitted delegates had been in negotiations with the Harris campaign for a number of weeks on several issues. They asked for policy positions and in-person meetings that they said would reassure Arab and Muslim Americans that the campaign was sensitive to their concerns.

A number of convention speakers have mentioned the war on the main stage. Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison — who was the first Muslim American in Congress and whose son, Minneapolis City council member Jeremiah Ellison, is one of the 10 uncommitted delegates from Minnesota — spoke Wednesday night.

As the convention approached, the campaign had been working to lower the temperature and avoid a public fight, and Harris had sent signals to pro-Palestinian activists that she was open to hearing their concerns.

The uncommitted delegates had been hopeful of getting a speaking slot because of this open channel of communication with the Harris campaign, which they consider a significant improvement from their relations with the Biden campaign.

Ahead of the convention, campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez and senior staffers of the Democratic National Committee met with members of the Uncommitted National Movement. The campaign gave uncommitted delegates extra passes for staff and friends to attend the convention and provided space to hold a news conference.

They provided Palestinians with space to hold a panel Monday, something that had not occurred in previous conventions. At the panel, Tanya Haj-Hassan, a pediatric surgeon who has worked in Gaza during the war, spoke of treating children who lost their families. Hala Hijazi, a Democratic Party organizer, said she has lost dozens of family members in Gaza, including two killed last week.

The uncommitted movement had suggested that Haj-Hassan, Illinois state Rep. Abdelnasser Rashid and Georgia state Rep. Ruwa Romman be considered as speakers.

Despite the conciliatory moves made by convention organizers and the Harris campaign, not having a speaker on the main stage was a major disappointment for the uncommitted movement.

Among the speakers who have mentioned the conflict in Gaza on the main stage, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) went the furthest, saying, “We must end this horrific war in Gaza, bring home the hostages and demand an immediate cease-fire.”

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) defended Harris, saying the vice president was “working tirelessly to secure a cease-fire in Gaza and bring the hostages home.” Sen. Raphael G. Warnock (D-Ga.) declared, “I need the poor children of Israel and the poor children of Gaza, I need the Israelis and Palestinians … to be okay.”

And President Joe Biden, who has been the largest target of pro-Palestinian demonstrators, said the protesters outside the convention hall “have a point.”

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

The third night of the 2024 Democratic National Convention in Chicago featured more mostly thematic speeches, including by former president Bill Clinton, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries and vice-presidential nominee Tim Walz. Here are four claims that caught our attention, in the order in which they were made.

As is our practice, we do not award Pinocchios for a roundup of statements made during convention events.

“Page 451 says the only legitimate family is a married mother and father where only the father works.”

— Colorado Gov. Jared Polis

It’s a matter of interpretation. Polis was one of several speakers during the convention who have highlighted passages in a Heritage Foundation report called “Mandate for Leadership,” a 922-page catalogue of conservative proposals that is popularly known as Project 2025.

But the report’s Page 451 does not use the words that Polis suggested he was quoting, nor does it say that mothers should not work. On that page is a proposal for the Department of Health and Human Services to promote “stable and flourishing married families.”

“Families comprised of a married mother, father, and their children are the foundation of a well-ordered nation and healthy society,” the report says, accusing the Biden HHS of “agenda items focusing on ‘LGBTQ+ equity,’ subsidizing single-motherhood, disincentivizing work, and penalizing marriage.”

The report also says that “working fathers are essential to the well-being and development of their children, but the United States is experiencing a crisis of fatherlessness that is ruining our children’s futures.” To combat this trend, the report says, “HHS should prioritize married father engagement in its messaging, health, and welfare policies.”

While Page 451 doesn’t actually say that the “only legitimate family” is the one it defines here, the implication is nonetheless strong. (Project 2025 page-number callouts in a skit by comedian Kenan Thompson mostly described the proposals on those pages accurately.)

“Trump was the mastermind of the GOP tax scam, where 83 percent of the benefits went to the wealthiest 1 percent in America.”

— House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.)

This is mostly false. Jeffries loves this statistic, but we gave him Three Pinocchios for it in 2021.

When both the Joint Tax Committee and the Tax Policy Center looked at the impact of the 2017 tax bill, they concluded that most people would experience an overall reduction in taxes. The Tax Policy Center found that 80.4 percent of all taxpayers would have a tax cut, compared with about 5 percent experiencing a tax increase. In the middle quintile, 91 percent would get a tax cut, averaging about $1,090, with 7.3 percent facing a tax increase averaging about $910.

Notice how Jeffries said that 83 percent “went” to the top 1 percent? He’s speaking in the past tense. But he’s relying on data for the year 2027 — three years from now — that is distorted by a decision made by the Republican tax-writers when crafting the bill.

Technically, under the budget rules agreed by Congress, the tax bill was supposed to increase the budget deficit by only $1.5 trillion over 10 years. But there was too much pressure to add in as many tax goodies as possible, so Republicans decided to allow significant provisions, such as individual tax cuts, to expire a couple of years before the end of the period budgeted for the tax cut.

This budget gamesmanship means that the tax tables for 2027 are distorted. The corporate tax cuts stay intact, but virtually all of the tax cuts for individuals were canceled, as Republicans bet that political pressure to keep the individual tax cuts in place would force a future Congress to extend them.

That may or may not have been a good wager. But politically it gave the Democrats a useful (if misleading) talking point. The 2027 tax tables produced by the Tax Policy Center show 82.8 percent of the tax cuts will flow to the top 1 percent. These numbers would be fine to cite in 2027, assuming the tax cuts expired on schedule. But it makes little sense to use them now.

“Since the end of the Cold War in 1989, America has created about 51 million new jobs. I swear I checked this three times. Even I couldn’t believe it. What’s the score? Democrats 50, Republicans 1.”

— Former president Bill Clinton

This is a cleverly cherry-picked fact. Clinton starts with the end of the Cold War, presumably the fall of the Berlin Wall on Nov. 9, 1989, which (economically speaking) is somewhat arbitrary. Economic trends such as job growth are not determined by presidential terms but often economic forces beyond a president’s control.

Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that nearly 50 million jobs were created from November 1989 through July of this year.

By starting during George H.W. Bush’s term, Clinton skips over Ronald Reagan, a Republican who oversaw the creation of 16 million jobs. Instead, the period covered by his statistic included three Republicans — Bush, his son George W. Bush and Trump — who had poor jobs records. About 1 million jobs were created from November 1989 to the end of the first Bush term, 1.4 million under his son, and then a negative 2.7 million under Trump (because of the pandemic). All three Republicans ended their terms with the country in economic downturns.

By contrast, 22.9 million jobs were created under Clinton, 11.6 million under Barack Obama and 15.8 million under President Joe Biden.

You will note that gives the Democrats 50.3 million jobs and the Republicans a negative 300,000. Perhaps Clinton thought that would sound too fantastical. So it appears as if he dated his statistic from January 1989, which results in a total of 51.5 million jobs, with about 1.3 million for Republicans.

“They’ll repeal the Affordable Care Act. They’ll gut Social Security and Medicare, and they will ban abortion across this country with or without Congress.”

— Vice-presidential nominee Tim Walz

This is speculative. Trump has insisted he will not touch Social Security or Medicare — and he largely kept to that pledge during his presidency.

He tried repeatedly to repeal the Affordable Care Act when he was president, but failed. After he announced he would seek the presidency again, Trump suggested again he would seek to repeal the health-care law passed in Obama’s presidency. But the ACA remains popular, and Trump dropped that talking point more than a year ago.

As for abortion, Trump has said the Supreme Court sent the matter to the states and that each state can set its own policies. But many conservative allies are eager to restrict abortion rights even further, perhaps using old laws on the books (such as the Comstock Act of 1873) in new and aggressive ways. Walz hinted at that by saying Trump would act “with or without Congress.”

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This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

CHICAGO — Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz formally accepted the Democratic vice-presidential nomination on Wednesday, in a night that was designed to introduce him to the country as a teacher and a football coach, a father and a husband, a former congressman and current governor who now could be the nation’s No. 2.

“It’s the honor of my life to accept your nomination for vice president of the United States,” Walz said at the start of a speech aimed at projecting his regular-guy persona in contrast to the Republicans he is running against and has tagged “weird.”

He ticked through his biography: growing up in small-town Nebraska (“I had 24 kids in my high school class, and none of them went to Yale”), joining the Army National Guard, and finding an occupation (“I fell in love with teaching”). He mentioned his run for political office, and the fertility treatments he and his wife relied upon: “When our daughter was born, we named her Hope.”

Riffing on a Harris campaign theme, Walz said Democrats and Republicans mean different things when they say “freedom.”

“When we Democrats talk about freedom, we mean the freedom to make a better life for yourself and the people that you love,” he said. “Freedom to make your own health-care decisions. And, yeah, your kids. Freedom to go to school without worrying about being shot dead in the hall.”

During the evening he was described as a man who helps neighbors out of snowbanks, a hunter in a deer stand and a dad dressed in plaid. He was also repeatedly described as a football coach, with former players walking onstage in high school uniforms as a pep band played and delegates raised signs that read “Coach Walz.”

“You know, you might not know it, but I haven’t given a lot of big speeches like this,” he said. “But I have given a lot of pep talks.”

The third day of the Democratic National Convention featured reproductive rights as a top issue that the party hopes will motivate voters in November, and later in the evening included boisterous speeches from former House speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), former president Bill Clinton and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) — and a surprise appearance from Oprah Winfrey. They used GOP nominee and former president Donald Trump’s age against him, and they spoke more pointedly of his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection. They fixed their attention on GOP vice-presidential nominee JD Vance. And they insisted their ticket is the one focusing on joy and uplifting the nation.

“Let’s cut to the chase. I am too old to gild the lily,” Clinton said, in a thin and raspy voice. “Two days ago I turned 78. … And the only personal vanity I want to assert is I’m still younger than Donald Trump.”

Following nights that were centered around an emotional celebration of President Joe Biden’s record and decision to drop out of the race on Monday, and then an exuberant set of speeches from Michelle and Barack Obama on Tuesday, the lineup on Wednesday at times was more geared at promoting a running mate who has been in the national spotlight for just 15 days.

But while Walz was the headliner of the night, speakers did just as much to promote Harris. And there was a focus on Trump throughout, with several Republicans and a former Trump administration official addressing the convention, and speakers repeatedly ridiculing the Republican nominee.

“Donald Trump is like an old boyfriend who you broke up with, but he just won’t go away,” Jeffries said. “He has spent the last four years spinning the block, trying to get back into a relationship with the American people. Bro, we broke up with you for a reason.”

Clinton, who began the speech thanking Biden and hailing his decision to step aside, seemed to relish lines about Trump, who defeated his wife, Hillary Clinton, in the 2016 election.

“In 2024, we have a clear choice: ‘we the people’ versus ‘me, myself and I,’” he said.

“He mostly talks about himself,” Clinton said of Trump. “So the next time you hear him, don’t count the lies. Count the I’s. Count the I’s. His vendettas, his vengeances, his complaints, his conspiracies. He’s like one of those tenors opening up before he walks out onstage … by singing me, me, me, me, me, me. When Kamala Harris is president, every day will begin with you, you, you, you.”

Pelosi contrasted the “new heights” she said would be reached under Harris with one of the country’s darkest days under Trump.

“January 6th was a perilous moment for our democracy,” she said. “Never before had a president of the United States so brazenly assaulted the bedrock of our democracy, so gleefully embraced political violence, so willfully betrayed his oath of office. Let us not forget who assaulted democracy on January 6th. He did. But let us not forget who saved democracy that day. We did.”

On a night focused on Democrats’ new vice-presidential nominee, speakers also launched several attacks on his Republican counterpart.

“At least Mike Pence was polite,” Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said. “JD Vance is one of those guys who thinks if you don’t live the life he has in mind for you, then you don’t count.”

He added: “Choosing a guy like JD Vance to be America’s next vice president sends a message. And the message is that they are doubling down on negativity and grievance, committing to a concept of campaigning best summed up in one word: darkness. Darkness is what they are selling. The thing is, I just don’t believe America is in the market for darkness.”

Winfrey hailed Harris as the daughter of two “idealistic, energetic immigrants.” She spoke about the need to protect abortion rights. And she triggered broad applause when she alluded to Vance’s disparaging comment about “childless cat ladies” running the country.

“When a house is on fire, we don’t ask about the homeowner’s race or religion,” she said. “We don’t wonder who their partner is or how they voted — no! We just try to do the best we can to save them. And if the place happens to belong to a childless cat lady? Well, we try to get that cat out, too.”

John Legend performed ahead of Walz’s speech, and the Minnesota governor was formally nominated for the vice-presidential role by Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota as well as by Ben Ingman, a former student and next-door neighbor of the Walz family.

Biographical videos featured some of his former students sharing how he impacted their lives as a football coach, basketball coach, social studies teacher, set builder for the student play and faculty adviser for the Gay-Straight Alliance.

Another video, focusing on Walz’s military service, featured Iraq War veteran Mike McLaughlin and Al Bonnifield, who served with Walz in the National Guard for nine years. Walz and McLaughlin met when McLaughlin was leaving the Marine Corps and using the GI Bill to go back to school, and worked together to pass the “Forever GI” bill — legislation to expand veterans’ education benefits — when Walz was in Congress.

Ahead of Walz’s speech, Republican lawmakers with military experience attacked his military record in a letter laying out claims that the vice-presidential nominee had inflated his retirement rank and shirked his duty in his 24-year Army National Guard career.

Yet the letter published Wednesday includes signees who have wrongfully claimed retirement ranks and military awards they did not earn.

That includes Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Tex.), who signed the letter with the retirement rank of Navy rear admiral. While Jackson served in and retired at the one-star rank of rear admiral (lower half), a Pentagon inspector general’s report substantiated claims of misconduct when he served as a White House physician. In response, the Navy bumped his retirement rank down to captain in 2022, The Washington Post reported in March. Yet Jackson has since been falsely described by himself and former president Donald Trump as a retired rear admiral.

Walz served as a command sergeant major in the Army National Guard, but he retired as a master sergeant, one rank down, because he did not finish the required coursework. Walz has often referred to himself as a retired command sergeant major, and the Harris campaign amended that language on its website after the scrutiny. Walz retired to pursue politics and left before his unit received its deployment orders, a decision that he says he struggled with and that later became an avenue for Republicans to attack his leadership qualities.

Walz has said that he’s “damn proud” of his time in uniform. Last week, the Harris campaign publicized a letter signed by more than 1,000 veterans and military members commending Walz’s service and advocacy for veterans and military families.

Harris chose Walz after a process that was accelerated because of the shortened window to pick a running mate.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a rising star in the Democratic Party who was one of the keynote speakers on Wednesday night, suggested earlier in the day that the running-mate role might have been his for the taking, even though Walz was the final pick.

“This was a deeply personal decision for the vice president, and we had a really good conversation and she laid out her vision — and in the end it was a deeply personal decision for me, as well,” Shapiro said during a conversation with reporters hosted by Bloomberg News at the convention.

“I’m a year and a half into a job I absolutely love — where I can have a meaningful impact every single day — and where I get to chart my own course, and I’m excited to continue that work for the good people of Pennsylvania,” he added.

Pressed on whether he was implying that the door had been open for him to become Harris’s running mate, Shapiro demurred, saying he wouldn’t divulge their private conversations: “The vice president had a personal decision to make and so did I, and I think this all ended up in the right place.”

Shapiro pushed back on suggestions by Trump and his allies that he wasn’t chosen because of his Jewish faith.

“I want to be really clear about something, because Donald Trump’s been stoking this,” Shapiro said. “Antisemitism played absolutely no role in the dialogue I had with the vice president.”

The evening program also featured a former Trump administration official, part of a continued effort to showcase Republicans who are supporting the Democratic ticket.

Olivia Troye, a former national security official in the Trump administration who has been a vocal critic since 2020, was among the speakers. Geoff Duncan, a Republican and former Georgia lieutenant governor, also spoke, telling the convention hall of Democrats: “Our party acts more like a cult. A cult worshiping a felonious thug.”

Harris did not come to the convention hall during Walz’s remarks but on Thursday is expected to give her speech accepting the nomination.

As Walz wrapped up his speech on Wednesday night, he again alluded to his brief time in the national spotlight and his years as a football coach.

“So let me finish with this, team. It’s the fourth quarter,” he said. “We’re down a field goal, but we’re on offense and we’ve got the ball. We’re driving down the field. And, boy, do we have the right team. Kamala Harris is tough. Kamala Harris is experienced. And Kamala Harris is ready.”

Dylan Wells, Maeve Reston, Maegan Vazquez and Alex Horton contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

CHICAGO – The first three nights of the Democratic National Convention have been a study in skillful political choreography, replete with star power, showmanship, creative twists and few glitches other than running long. What will matter most, however, is the impression Vice President Kamala Harris leaves with voters when she delivers her acceptance speech Thursday night.

Nothing counts quite as much at political conventions as what the nominee says in the spotlight. Former president Donald Trump managed to undermine three good nights at his convention in Milwaukee with a rambling, unfocused 90-minute speech that ran counter to efforts by others to remake his image in the eyes of voters. His candidacy hasn’t been the same since then.

As effective as Harris has been over the month since President Joe Biden abruptly ended his reelection campaign, Thursday’s speech provides her with the most significant opportunity yet to move voters, particularly those on the fence, in her direction. It will probably be the last time she will command such attention solely for herself.

Democrats have done all they can this week to set up Harris for success. In a matter of weeks, they have torn up their original script that would have been about boosting Biden and a principal focus on the issue of democracy — and rewritten it to make the convention all about the vice president and the themes of freedom and the future.

But if the Republican National Convention was about the adulation focused on Trump by adoring delegates, Chicago this week has been more the story of a political party that has undergone a massive exhale with Biden no longer the nominee — and found new energy in their younger and more vibrant standard-bearer.

Democrats’ hopes now rest on Harris’s shoulders, and while the convention is focused on her, it also has shown a collective spirit suggesting that the party was not as moribund as it might have seemed when led by Biden. If the energy and enthusiasm in Milwaukee was all about Trump, the sentiment in the United Center this week has been just as much about revived hope as it has been about one person.

The enthusiasm generated for speakers as varied as Hillary Clinton and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), from the most experienced leaders to the stars of Harris’s generation or younger, underscored not only the party’s newfound unity but also the roles that a diverse many play in its fortunes.

Wednesday was another night of star power, with former president Bill Clinton, former House speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and even, yes, Oprah Winfrey, the Chicago figure whose appeal has transcended the political divides. Winfrey’s endorsement of Barack Obama helped lift his candidacy in 2008, and her impassioned appearance here could boost Harris with suburban women.

The capstone of the third night was the energetic and relatable speech by Harris’s running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a new face on the political scene. He leaned into his past profession as a teacher and football coach to attack Trump and running mate Sen. JD Vance (Ohio) over the conservative policy blueprint known as Project 2025 that has been prepared by their allies.

Walz said Trump and Vance have spent ‘a lot of time pretending they know nothing about this. But look, I coached high school football long enough to know — and trust me on this — when somebody takes the time to draw up a playbook, they’re going to use it.”

The sequence this week has been well-plotted. There was Monday night’s passing of the torch by Biden, whose decision to end his candidacy and endorse Harris turned what could have been a downbeat, moribund convention into an expression of enthusiasm and growing confidence about an election that a month ago appeared to have slipped away.

Then there was the combined power Tuesday night of former president Barack Obama and his wife, Michelle. No one doubted their ability to stand and deliver, but they may have exceeded expectations, with Michelle eclipsing her husband. The former president clearly knew what he was in for. “I am the only person stupid enough to speak after Michelle Obama,” he joked as he stepped to the microphone.

Michelle Obama delivered a cutting takedown of Trump and an affirmation of Harris. Her husband took his own potshots at Trump and vouched for Harris’s capacity to serve as president. Both crucially said they believed she has qualities that could conceivably lift the country out of the political morass, beginning to turn the page on the toxicity that has marked the eight years since Obama left office. “Yes, she can,” he said, reprising the “Yes, we can!” chant from his 2008 campaign.

In the early days of Trump the politician, Democrats prided themselves as resisting playing down to his level. “When they go low, we go high,” Michelle Obama famously said at the 2016 convention, when few Democrats thought Trump would ever reach the White House. After all that has happened since then, from Trump’s false claim of a stolen election to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol to the demeaning rhetoric that continues to define his appearances, that’s now old thinking.

The speakers this week have repeated previous assertions that Trump is a threat to democracy. But what is different now is the degree to which they all have sought to belittle him, to diminish him, to paint him as small and petty and so self-absorbed that he cares about nothing but himself. They have decided to fight fire with fire.

“We know all the old tricks and tropes that are designed to distract us from what actually matters,” Winfrey said in an obvious reference to Trump. “But we are beyond ridiculous tweets and lies and foolery. These are complicated times, people, and they require adult conversation.”

Michelle Obama was the most direct when she described Trump as benefiting from “the affirmative action of generational wealth,” and then put the United Center audience into a frenzy of applause and laughter when she said, “Who’s going to tell him that the job he’s currently seeking might just be one of those ‘Black jobs?’” — a reference to Trump demeaning immigrants for taking “Black jobs” in his July debate with Biden.

Among other disparagements, Barack Obama leveled Trump with a hand gesture while mocking him for his obsession with crowd sizes.

To underscore that she can now go toe-to-toe with Trump in staging big and enthusiastic rallies, Harris and Walz on Tuesday night filled the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, where Republicans staged their convention, and piped in the rally to the jam-packed United Center.

The issue of democracy wasn’t absent this week. Wednesday’s program included a video of the attack on the Capitol, scenes of chaos and mayhem and violence, along with clips of Trump exhorting his followers to stand strong and march on the symbol of democracy. The video brought back the reality of one of the country’s darkest days in history.

“Never before had a president of the United States so brazenly assaulted the bedrock of democracy, so gleefully embraced political violence, so willfully betrayed his oath of office,” Pelosi said. “Let us not forget who assaulted democracy on January 6th. He did. But let us not forget who saved democracy that day. We did.”

The issue also brought to the stage the former Republican lieutenant governor of Georgia, Geoff Duncan, who denounced Trump and called on voters to embrace the Democratic nominee. “If you vote for Kamala Harris in 2024, you’re not a Democrat,” he said. “You’re a patriot.” At that point, the convention audience erupted in chants of “U.S.A.! U.S.A.!”

It’s been said that the Harris campaign exudes the politics of joy, as Winfrey said in ending her speech, and there has been much such feeling inside the convention hall this week. But there were reminders from more than a few speakers that no matter how much the polls have shifted in Harris’s direction, Democrats still face a difficult fight ahead.

Harris’s validators have stressed that she represents the future to Trump’s past, that she has a smile and a laugh that, whatever Trump may say, sent a jolt of energy through her audiences. They have extolled her for thinking of others when Trump thinks only of himself. And they have spoken about her toughness and determination.

On Thursday night, Harris will have the opportunity to show all Americans who she is, what she believes and why she should be president. The setup has gone smoothly, and now it falls on her to finish the job.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

CHICAGO — Welcome to The Campaign Moment, your guide to the 2024 election, where Wednesday night at the Democratic National Convention looked a little like a Friday night (with a high school football team and lots of pigskin talk) and even a Saturday night (with an SNL star).

(Make sure you are subscribed to this newsletter here. You can also hear my analysis on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. We’re doing new episodes of the Campaign Moment podcast all week.)

The big moment

Night 3 of 4 at the Democratic National Convention is in the books. Democrats used it to road-test some messages on some of their most problematic issues, while we got much-anticipated speeches from former House speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and the man she helped create a job opening for: Democratic vice-presidential nominee Tim Walz.

Below is the third installment of my takeaways from the convention, which concludes Thursday with Vice President Kamala Harris formally accepting the nomination for president.

1. Walz brings home the “freedom” theme

All week at their convention, Democrats have been trying to lay claim to the patriotism mantle after decades of largely ceding that territory to Republicans. The symbols and chants are everywhere. The anthem of the convention is Beyonce’s “Freedom,” a song about liberation.

In accepting the Democratic vice-presidential nomination Wednesday night, Walz sought to tie it all together.

The overriding theme of the Minnesota governor’s speech was the title of that song. He mentioned “free” or “freedom” a dozen times. He pitched Democrats as the protectors of it and Republicans as meddling in it.

“When Republicans use the word — freedom — they mean that the government should be free to invade your doctor’s office, corporations free to pollute your air and water, and banks free to take advantage of customers,” Walz said. “But when we Democrats talk about freedom, we mean the freedom to make a better life for yourself and the people that you love, freedom to make your own health-care decisions and, yeah, your kids’ freedom to go to school without worrying about being shot dead in the hall.”

Walz painted Donald Trump and GOP vice-presidential nominee JD Vance as not just “weird,” but weird in a way that infringes upon people’s lives by taking away their economic and health-care freedom.

“We know if these guys get back in the White House, they’ll start jacking up the costs on the middle class,” Walz said. “They’ll repeal the Affordable Care Act, they’ll gut Social Security and Medicare, and they will ban abortion across this country with or without Congress.”

Walz pitched Harris as the antidote.

“Kamala Harris is going to cut your taxes,” he promised. “If you’re getting squeezed by prescription drug prices. Kamala Harris is going to take on Big Pharma. If you’re hoping to buy a home, Kamala Harris is going to help make it more affordable.”

(Separately, one of the moments sure to have people talking was when Walz’s son, Gus, who has a nonverbal learning disorder, tearfully stood up and exclaimed, “That’s my dad.”)

It was a specific version of freedom — a populist one — delivered by a candidate brought to the ticket for that kind of appeal. But he wasn’t the only one to play it up.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) spoke about “real freedom” that comes from investment in schools, infrastructure and communities. Oprah Winfrey intoned, “Freedom isn’t free,” and that “it takes hard work and heart work.” Many speakers have cast reproductive rights — a major issue in Democrats’ favor right now — in terms of freedom. And the Harris campaign debuted an ad, “We believe in freedom.”

At the end of it all, of course, Walz departed to Neil Young’s “Rockin’ in the Free World.”

2. A muted moment for the highly consequential Pelosi

Perhaps nobody has quietly loomed over the convention this week like Pelosi. Her role in nudging aside President Joe Biden helped create the enthusiastic and optimistic spectacle we’ve witnessed, but it has been the source of some internal tensions. Pelosi has occasionally been terse when asked about the subject and has offered no apologies. And her relationship with Biden and his team appears strained.

Pelosi spoke only briefly, with little sign of any hard feelings from her or the crowd.

She took care to praise Biden’s presidency, calling it “one of the most successful presidencies of modern times.” But she notably prefaced that by tying it to “the inauguration of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris” — playing up Harris’s role.

Thank you, Joe,” Pelosi said after listing the administration’s accomplishments. “And I know that Vice President Harris is ready to take us to new heights.”

3. Democrats threaded the needle on Gaza

Democrats have spent much of the week treating the war in Gaza — perhaps their most divisive issue internally — gingerly. It had received only fleeting mentions over the first two days, as pro-Palestinian protests took place outside the convention, and the party has split between the Palestinian and the Israeli causes.

But Democrats leaned in Wednesday, seeking to thread the needle — and seemingly succeeding for the moment.

One of the night’s most poignant moments came when the parents of a hostage held by Hamas, Hersh Goldberg-Polin, spoke about their plight.

Jon Polin, the father, asserted that Biden and Harris were working hard to return the hostages and reach a cease-fire deal. He noted that the hostages spanned many nationalities and religions.

“In an inflamed Middle East, we know the one thing that can most immediately release pressure and bring calm to the entire region: a deal that brings this diverse group of 109 hostages home and ends the suffering of the innocent civilians in Gaza,” Polin said.

In a sign of how unifying the message was, Polin’s comment earned applause from one of the House’s most pro-Palestinian members, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.). The crowd ultimately chanted of the hostages, “Bring them home.”

Speakers have regularly mentioned freeing the hostages alongside a cease-fire — combining the priorities of the two sides of their split party. And thus far, the issue hasn’t boiled over in nearly the way Democrats had feared it might.

4. An attempt to flip the script on the “broken” border

Speaking of issues being massaged, Democrats also placed newfound emphasis on border security — an issue that has been one of Biden’s worst and has threatened to derail Democrats’ hopes. Republicans have sought to connect the issue to Harris, misleadingly calling her the “border czar.”

Democrats mostly played up Trump’s role in torpedoing a bipartisan border deal earlier this year. But they also sought to tie the nation’s proud immigrant past and pathways to citizenship — things they have long emphasized — to an increasing rhetorical emphasis on getting tough on illegal crossings.

More than a half-dozen speakers broached the issue.

“Let’s be clear: The border is broken,” Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) said before pitching Harris as a “joyful” warrior who would “work across party lines to secure our border, to treat people like human beings and to move our country forward.”

Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Tex.), who represents a border district, joined others in accusing Republicans of rejecting the deal and previous attempts at immigration reform for political purposes — in the most recent case, to keep the border chaotic ahead of the 2024 election.

Bexar County, Tex., Sheriff Javier Salazar’s recounting of the horrors of cross-border human-trafficking — “desperate, terrified, gasping for air” — would have sounded just as at home at a Republican convention.

Salazar (D) then added: “When Donald Trump comes down to Texas, stands next to officers in uniforms just like mine, he’s not there to help us. Just like when he killed the border bill, he just made our jobs harder. Now, Kamala, on the other hand, has been fighting border crime for years.”

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) even promised Harris would bring the border bill back up and pass it.

“Kamala Harris has been tough as nails when it comes to securing our border,” Murphy said. “When she was a California prosecutor, she went after drug smugglers, human traffickers. She put 100 gang members away in a single sweep.”

Actually passing that bill, sponsored by a Republican, Sen. James Lankford (Okla.), will prove difficult after other Republicans turned against it en masse. But the border appears somewhat less salient of an issue right now than it once seemed, amid a four-year low in illegal border crossings.

5. There were plenty of choice lines

Bill Clinton: “What does her opponent do with his voice? He mostly talks about himself. So the next time you hear him, don’t count the lies. Count the I’s.”

Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel (D): “I got a message for the Republicans and the justices at the United States Supreme Court: You can pry this wedding band from my cold, dead, gay hand. And I’m retaining a lot of water, so good luck with that.”

“Saturday Night Live” star Kenan Thompson, while holding an oversize prop copy of Project 2025: “You ever seen a document that could kill a small animal and democracy at the same time? Here it is.”

Former Georgia lieutenant governor Geoff Duncan (R): “These days, our party acts more like a cult — a cult worshiping a felonous thug. … Let me be clear to my Republican friends at home: If you vote for Kamala Harris in 2024, you’re not a Democrat; you’re a patriot.”

Take a moment to read:

  • “What happens if Kennedy endorses Trump?” (Washington Post)
  • “With six words, Michelle Obama rewires America’s conversation on race” (Washington Post)
  • “Pelosi makes no apologies at DNC for her role in Biden’s ouster” (Washington Post)
  • “Pro-Palestinian delegates will not get a speaking slot at convention” (Washington Post)
  • “Harris upended Trump’s electoral fortunes. Just look at North Carolina.” (Politico)
  • “Harris Fundraising Shows Huge Cash Increase After Biden Left Race” (Wall Street Journal)
  • “How Kamala Harris Is Trying to Claim the Mantle of Change” (New York Times)
This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

CHICAGO — When a mysterious 15-minute gap appeared in the Democratic National Convention’s Wednesday night programming, a rumor — quickly confirmed — began circulating that the surprise speaker would be none other than Oprah Winfrey.

And when the mononymous daughter of Chicago, her chosen hometown, took the stage in the United Center here — beaming off the Jumbotron in her vivid lilac pantsuit — she was greeted with an immediate roar and standing ovation.

“Who says you can’t go home again?” the talk-show queen broadcast from the house of the Bulls.

In ways both literal and figurative, Winfrey’s Wednesday night speech was indeed a homecoming in which she fulsomely returned to the political arena 16 years after her debut political endorsement of Barack Obama to once again bestow the full force of her celebrity and cultural power, this time on Vice President Kamala Harris.

Describing herself as a political independent who always votes her values, Winfrey offered a largely apolitical speech, instead serving as yet another voice at the United Center calling for joy and decency, and emphasizing “common sense over nonsense.” (Even her head-to-toe choice of color — purple — offered the simultaneous promise of bipartisanship and nonpartisanship).

“So I’m calling on all you independents and all you undecideds,” Winfrey said, imploring would-be voters far outside the convention perimeter to support Harris. “You know I’m telling you the truth that values and character matter, most of all, in leadership and in life, and more than anything — you know, this is true — that decency and respect are on the ballot in 2024.”

“Common sense tells you that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz can give us decency and respect,” she continued.

Winfrey, who over her career has been dubbed the most influential and powerful woman in the world by everyone from CNN to Forbes to Time, has long embodied the so-called “Oprah effect” — the ability to influence public opinion, say, or send book sales skyrocketing with almost a single utterance.

But her first foray into electoral politics did not come until 2007, when she pointedly chose her fellow Chicagoan over Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary for president.

Calling him “the one,” Winfrey hosted fundraisers for and appeared at rallies with Obama in early primary states, emerging as one of his most potent and important supporters. Moments after Obama accepted the Democratic nomination in 2008 at Denver’s Invesco Field, Winfrey described his speech as “the most powerful thing I have ever experienced.”

“I cried my eyelashes off,” she said at the time.

Since then, Winfrey has continued to periodically weigh in on certain races — she supported Clinton in 2016, for instance. But no subsequent endorsement has quite matched the shimmering synergy of the merging of Obama and Winfrey, two charismatic Black leaders marshaling complementary cultural movements.

Yet Wednesday night offered something of a symbolic and almost physical torch-passing, with Winfrey — American royalty and Chicago uber-royalty — serving as the bridge between the Obamas, who both spoke Tuesday evening, and Harris, who will officially accept her party’s nomination Thursday night at the United Center.

There were signs that Winfrey viewed Harris’s historic ascent as similar to that of Obama, including when she told People magazine just days after Joe Biden and Harris were officially declared the winners of the 2020 presidential race that she wished Black poet, writer and activist Maya Angelou had been alive to see it.

“I think what she means for women of the world is so extraordinary,” Winfrey told the magazine at the time. “For women here in the United States, we can’t even measure it. Because to see someone who looks like you in this role, you see what’s possible for yourself.”

Popping back into the political fray Wednesday in support of Harris, Winfrey served as yet another strong Black woman who delivered yet another powerful speech.

“And let us choose the sweet promise of tomorrow over the bitter return to yesterday,” she said, before turning to what has emerged as a signature line of Harris’s: “We won’t go back. We won’t be set back, pushed back, bullied back, kicked back. We’re not going back.”

Winfrey never uttered the names of the men atop the Republican ticket — former president Donald Trump and Sen. JD Vance of Ohio — and even her pointed digs were loosely couched in the idea of appealing to the nation’s common decency.

She described at times being on “the receiving end” of “racism and sexism and income inequality and division,” before saying, “but more often than not, what I’ve witnessed and experienced are human beings, both conservative and liberal, who may not agree with each other, but who still help you in a heartbeat if you are in trouble.”

She continued: “When a house is on fire, we don’t ask about the homeowner’s race or religion. We don’t wonder who their partner is or how they voted. No. We just try to do the best we can to save them.”

Then, pausing, Winfrey finished the riff by alluding to comments Vance made in 2021 on Fox News about “a bunch of childless cat ladies” who are miserable in their lives.

“And if the place happens to belong to a childless cat lady, well, we try to get that cat out, too,” she concluded, as the crowd cheered.

Winfrey’s prime-time performance was the sort of speech — not unlike her remarks at the 2018 Golden Globes, when she received the Cecil B. DeMille award for lifetime achievement — that seem likely to prompt a swirl of speculation about her own political ambitions.

But as if to clear up any doubt, Winfrey ended her remarks by calling on the crowd to choose honor and joy. Then, throwing her arms open wide, she sang Harris’s name in a throaty vibrato: “And together, let’s all choose Kamala HAR-RIS!”

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

In this video from StockCharts TV, Julius looks at the conflicting rotations in both asset classes and equity sectors. The weekly rotations differ significantly from their daily counterparts. What does it mean for the current rally in the S&P 500, and what does it mean for the relationship between stocks and bonds?

This video was originally broadcast on August 20, 2024. Click anywhere on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past episodes of Julius’ shows can be found here.

#StayAlert, -Julius

In this video from StockCharts TV, Julius looks at the conflicting rotations in both asset classes and equity sectors. The weekly rotations differ significantly from their daily counterparts. What does it mean for the current rally in the S&P 500, and what does it mean for the relationship between stocks and bonds?

This video was originally broadcast on August 20, 2024. Click anywhere on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past episodes of Julius’ shows can be found here.

#StayAlert, -Julius

In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, Dave continues a five-part series covering ten charts to watch in August 2024, focusing on potential ideas in the Consumer Staples sector. Are dividend-paying defensive names the way to ride out a period of market uncertainty?

This video originally premiered on August 20, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

The House of Mouse has taken a serious nosedive over the last three years, having gone from a high of about $201 down to $89 and change—a 55% drop that feels like one of its roller coaster rides. Not exactly the thrill Disney shareholders were hoping for.

But Disney (DIS) has an ace in the hole, so to speak, that just might be its saving grace: a formidable economic moat (you know…brand strength, intellectual property, diversified segments, economies of scale, etc.).

Is Disney a Near-Term Bust And Long-Term Bargain? 

Right now, Disney’s facing some big challenges, and the market isn’t a fan of short-term uncertainty. But looking ahead, there’s plenty of room for a comeback if the company gets its house back in order. Assuming that it eventually does, anyone willing to buy Disney at these levels would be looking for a technical trigger for a longer-term trade. Where might that be?

Disney’s Macro Price Action

CHART 1: WEEKLY CHART OF DISNEY. It’s virtually back to its 2020 COVID Crash low.

Looking at a weekly chart, Disney’s  StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score hit a super-bullish 90 twice, but, for the last three years, it’s been scraping the bottom of the chart. Currently, Disney’s stock price is not too far above its pandemic lows.

Here’s another interesting thing: Look at the resistance levels (blue dotted lines) at $115 and $125. Not only do these mark swing high points that repulsed price twice, but the range itself also happens to be the “fair value” range estimated by several fundamentally-based analysts. If Disney’s going to bounce back, it needs to break through those resistance levels before any real uptrend can take hold.

Let’s suppose it does. If you’re looking for an early entry point, where might that be? Let’s zoom in on the daily chart.

CHART 2: DAILY CHART OF DISNEY. Watch these levels if you’re looking for an early entry point.

If you’re looking for an early entry point…

  • Wait for a break above the trendline (see blue dotted line and circle) and make sure the volume supports the breakout (plus any follow-through in volume would be welcome).
  • You’ll also want to see strong momentum. The chart above uses the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), one of many momentum indicators you can use. Right now, the CMF is at the zero line; you’ll want to see a surge in buying pressure.
  • Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a midpoint and rising from a bullish divergence (see blue dotted line on the RSI indicator), indicating room for potential upside.
  • Lastly, take a look at the magenta rectangle.  It marks the potential resistance range from the weekly chart, and also lines up with analysts’ “fair value” projections. Translation: Disney might be undervalued right now.

At the Close

So, is Disney a bust or a bargain? The House of Mouse has seen better days, but it’s not out of magic just yet. With stocks near pandemic lows and key resistance levels to watch, there’s a possible upside for those willing to hang tight. A break above the trendline, fueled by strong buying momentum, just might signal the start of Disney’s next chapter. As for now, it’s a waiting game.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.