Author

admin

Browsing

Venezuelans once again watched as Nicolás Maduro was sworn into office on Friday, donning the executive sash and declaring himself president despite irregularities and questions around his election.

He repeated his attacks against the United States and any foreign leaders who did not recognize his return to power and vowed to squash all of those who oppose him.

“I come from the people. The power I represent belongs to the people and I owe it to the people,” Maduro told allies and supporters in his inauguration speech.

For many Venezuelans, there will have been a sense of déjà vu as Maduro assumed his third six-year term in office following the contested July 28 election.

The country’s National Electoral Council, the body responsible for supervising and certifying the vote, which is stacked with some of his closest loyalists, had declared Maduro the winner without providing detailed evidence or data to support his victory.

But the opposition disputed the claim, releasing tens of thousands of voting tallies from around the country claiming that their candidate, Edmundo González, had actually won with 67% against Maduro’s 30%.

Several nations, including the United States, have since recognized González as Venezuela’s rightful president-elect and have issued new sanctions against Maduro and some of the country’s electoral authorities.

Fellow opposition leader Maria Corina Machado accused Maduro of a coup d’état in a video posted to social media after he was sworn in for the third time. She said that with his inauguration “they decided to cross the red line” and “they stomp on our constitution.”

“Today, Maduro did not put the presidential band on his chest, he put it on his ankle like a shackle that would tighten more every day,” she added.

A contested comeback

This is not the first time a Maduro victory has been called into question. In fact, every presidential vote in which he’s been a candidate, dating back to when he first took office nearly 12 years ago, has been disputed.

Maduro first became president following the death of his predecessor and mentor Hugo Chavez in March 2013. The larger-than-life populist strongman – who had enshrined himself in power for nearly 15 years as the anti-establishment leader and transformed the country under his socialist-leaning Bolivarian Revolution – had hand-picked Maduro as his successor.

Despite the endorsement, Maduro struggled in the polls and only beat his then-challenger Henrique Capriles by a razor-thin margin of 1.49%. It was considered at the time as one of the closest ballots in decades and the opposition claimed irregularities and fraud in the vote.

Capriles, who had run against Chavez six months earlier and lost by 12%, called for an audit with the National Electoral Council and appealed the results with the Supreme Court. Both bodies were stacked with Chavez and Maduro supporters and the opposition’s claims were discredited.

By the time Maduro’s second presidential election was scheduled to take place, Venezuela had fallen into a deep economic and political crisis. The once oil-rich country was suffering from hyperinflation and widespread economic woes. There were massive food shortages, rampant crime and millions of people had fled the country in fear and desperation.

Many opposition leaders, including Capriles, were banned from running for political office with some arrested or forced into exile due to trumped-up accusations and charges.

Maduro was reelected to his second term in May 2018, in what the opposition and many foreign leaders called a sham election due to the low voter turnout and an opposition boycott following the bans against its candidates. Only 46% of the country’s population participated in the vote, the National Electoral Council said at the time, and Maduro was sworn into office in January 2019.

Massive protests broke out in the streets of the capital Caracas and throughout the country, questioning his legitimacy and calling for him to step down. This was not the first time the country had seen protests, but they were heavily repressed by the Maduro-supporting National Guard, police forces and militia groups and led to several deaths, injuries and arrests.

Global leaders shun Maduro return

As Maduro takes office for the third time, he finds himself more isolated than ever.

His inauguration lacked the usual pomp and pageantry that normally surrounds the event. Cuba and Nicaragua were the only two countries with their presidents in attendance. Meanwhile, the ceremony itself was markedly lowkey in comparison to previous events, held in a small room of the National Assembly rather than the building’s main hall.

Protesters also returned to the streets of Venezuela and the country’s growing diaspora staged marches in Ecuador, Spain and Mexico, among other locations.

Biden administration officials met earlier this week in Washington DC with González, who was recognized by the US as Venezuela’s rightful president-elect.

González, who has been living in exile after being accused of terrorism by the Maduro government, had vowed to return to the country to challenge the inauguration but said the “conditions for his entry” were not met. He posted a video message to his social media accounts from the Dominican Republic, in which he also accused Maduro of staging a coup.

“Maduro has violated the Constitution, and the sovereign will of Venezuelans expressed on July 28,” González said. “He carried out a coup d’état and crowned himself a dictator.”

US President-elect Donald Trump issued a harsh warning against Maduro following reports that Machado had been briefly kidnapped following a protest. The Maduro government denied any involvement.

Shortly after the inauguration, the US announced a $25 million reward for information leading to the arrest of Maduro and his closest officials, including Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello. Washington also announced an 18-month extension of Temporary Protected Status for eligible Venezuelan nationals, which could benefit some 600,000 people living in the US.

Nearly 8 million Venezuelans have left the country over the last decade, the second largest displacement in the world, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

The strongman leader may have succeeded in reclaiming Venezuela’s highest office but with so many – both at home and abroad – still questioning if he stole the election, he could find himself struggling for allies on the world stage.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Two trams collided in Strasbourg in eastern France on Saturday, causing dozens of injuries, though none critical, authorities said.

The accident took place during the afternoon in a tunnel leading to the station near the city’s central train station.

An additional 100 people, though uninjured, were assessed for shock or stress, said René Cellier, director of the Bas-Rhin Fire and Rescue Service.

Emergency services deployed 130 firefighters, 50 rescue vehicles and established a wide safety perimeter.

“Around 50 people are in a state of relative emergency, with injuries such as scalp wounds, clavicle fractures and knee sprains. But there are no critical injuries. It could have been much worse,” Cellier said.

The exact cause of the collision was unclear but local media reported that one of the trams was reversing at the time.

Mayor Jeanne Barseghian, who visited the site, described the incident as a “brutal collision” and expressed her gratitude to emergency responders.

“I am at the station with the injured and rescuers. Thank you for your mobilization,” she said on X. She urged the public not to obstruct rescue operations.

Images shared on social media showed two severely damaged tram cars, one of which had derailed in the tunnel.

Strasbourg, the first major French city to reinstate tram services in 1994, had not experienced a significant tram accident until now, according to French media. Authorities launched an investigation to determine what caused the collision.

Cleanup operations continued Saturday evening, and residents were advised to avoid the area around the train station.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Israel will send the chief of its Mossad intelligence agency to Qatar to continue talks over a potential ceasefire-for-hostages deal in Gaza, in a possible sign the negotiations may be advancing.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Saturday it had directed the chief of the Mossad, David Barnea, to head a delegation “to depart for Doha to continue advancing a deal for the release of our hostages.”

It did not say when Barnea and his delegation will arrive in Qatar.

The delegation will also include Nitzan Alon, the head of the Israel Defense Forces’ hostage’s unit and Ronen Bar, the head of Israel’s Shin Bet intelligence agency.

Netanyahu’s decision came on the heels of a meeting with US “negotiators of both the incoming and outgoing administrations,” his office added.

Netanyahu met Saturday with Steve Witkoff, US president-elect Donald Trump’s designated envoy to the Middle East.

Despite talks appearing deadlocked, with Hamas claiming that Israel has introduced new conditions and Egyptian mediators sounding downbeat about progress, Netanyahu’s decision could be a sign that talks are advancing.

Indirect talks between Israel and Hamas have carried on even as official negotiations have been deadlocked for months, with the outgoing administration of US President Joe Biden pushing for a deal.

This is a developing story. More to come.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

A former child star from Australia died when the Los Angeles wildfires ripped through his family’s Malibu estate in California earlier this week, according to his mother.

Rory Callum Sykes was at the family’s 17-acre Mount Malibu TV Studios estate, where he had his own cottage, when it burned down on January 8, his mother Shelley Sykes wrote on X Thursday.

Shelley Sykes described her son, who appeared on the 1998 British TV series “Kiddy Kapers,” as “beautiful” and “wonderful” and said she was “totally heart broken” by his death.

She said she had tried to put out the wildfire cinders on her property’s roof using a hose but couldn’t because the water wasn’t working.

“He said, ‘mom leave me’ and no mom can leave their kid. And I’ve got a broken arm, I couldn’t lift him, I couldn’t move him,” Sykes told Australia’s 10 News First.

Her son, 32, was born blind with cerebral palsy on July 29, 1992, and had become famous for his speeches on overcoming disability. He was the co-founder of Happy Charity, which according to its site offers, “Hope, Happiness & Health to those that are Hurting.”

“He overcame so much with surgeries and therapies to regain his sight and to be able to learn to walk. Despite the pain, he still enthused about traveling the world with me from Africa to Antarctica,” Shelley Sykes wrote on X.

She said her son was born in Britain but lived in Australia, then America. He was “a gift born on mine and his grandma’s birthday,” she wrote.

On his website, Sykes describes himself as a professional speaker and consultant for many companies including the Tony Robbins Foundation, and the Cerebral Palsy Alliance.

In an appearance with his mother on Australian television show “Mornings with Kerri-Anne” in 2003, he discussed going on a trip to the United States to speak at a Tony Robbins motivational conference.

“It doesn’t matter what happens to you in life, it’s what you do about it that counts,” he told viewers.

“The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade is providing consular assistance to his family. Our thoughts are with them,” DFAT told 9News. “Owing to our privacy obligations we are unable to provide further comment.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Ukraine claimed Saturday to have struck one of Russia’s largest oil refineries in a drone attack, starting a fire at the facility more than 700 miles into Russian territory.

The attack on the Taneco refinery in the city of Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan – one of the largest and most modern refineries in Russia – was the second time the facility had been struck by Ukrainian forces within the space of a year, according to Lieutenant Andrii Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation.

Despite the footage, the press service of the Republic of Tatarstan denied there had been a fire at the plant, insisting instead that it had been carrying out a mock evacuation as a safety exercise and that the images of the glowing facility in fact showed “the work of the plant’s torches.”

The Taneco refinery has a refining capacity of over 16 million tons of oil per year and “plays a key role in supplying fuel to the Russian army,” according to the Ukrainian official Kovalenko.

“The destruction of refineries and oil depots directly affects Russia’s ability to wage an intense war,” he added.

Kovalenko said the refinery had also been hit in the spring of 2024, in an attack that damaged its primary processing unit.

The attack last April was at the time the farthest into Russian territory Ukraine had struck since the beginning of the war.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

When 35-year-old combat medic Tetyana Tsymbaliuk regained consciousness in the hospital room, she found her boyfriend waiting with a bunch of flowers. He proposed, but she declined. After a serious injury, her leg had been amputated; she worried about being a burden as a wife.

“I realized that before amputation, I was more attractive. I was not sure that I could find a way to fulfil my family role as a woman,” said Tsymbaliuk. It took her a long time to regain her confidence.

Tsymbaliuk says she was one of the first Ukrainian military amputees following the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022. Almost three years on, nearly 370,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been wounded. Thousands have lost one or more limbs.

While the government does not provide official figures on amputations, a state program issued prostheses to almost 20,000 people across 2023 and the first half of 2024, and many others were helped by private programs in Ukraine and abroad.

In the past two years, Ukraine has implemented protocols for physical and, to some degree, psychological rehabilitation for those injured in conflict. But sexual rehabilitation for people who have lost limbs or suffered other serious injuries has been largely overlooked.

Sex has long been a taboo topic in Ukraine. While modern Ukrainians are more open about sex than in the Soviet era, the topic is still an uncomfortable one for many.

“If I ask veterans about sex issues, they usually say that everything is okay. Only a few of them after a while, when they start to trust me, can talk about the problems they have,” Revunets said.

There are no protocols or recommendations for sexual rehabilitation on the official governmental level, she said, or even any mention of it.

“That’s important because the doctor is required to work according to protocol,” Revunets said. “Sexual rehabilitation is not specified anywhere, so the doctor can only take the initiative if he or she wants to do so. But most doctors aren’t ready to talk about it.”

It takes time even to persuade some doctors of its significance, Revunets said. “When I tell my colleagues about the importance of sexual rehabilitation, they look at me as if I’m crazy, (someone) who doesn’t understand what kind of serious injuries the patient has,” she said.

A good sexologist can help in many ways. Revunets is one of the very few sexologists in the country who works with the military. “I find out what exactly is wrong with the patient. I ask how the person feels. Depending on this, I give advice – it can be advice on how and what to do from a technical point of view, or what medications to take, or help psychologically.”

‘I was told to have sex, but no one told me how’

The war has resulted in an unprecedented number of people with injuries, a situation for which Ukraine was unprepared. The lack of any information on sexual rehabilitation has motivated the Ukrainian nonprofit Veteran Hub, which is specifically dedicated to supporting war veterans and their families, to study the topic.

In 2023, Veteran Hub researchers conducted 39 in-depth interviews with injured soldiers and their partners. Among other things, interviewees spoke anonymously about their sex lives after injury.

Researchers found that sex itself had changed for many. For example, after being injured, some respondents started to prepare for or plan sexual relations due to physical changes.

One of the veterans in a long-term relationship said of the doctors who treated him: “I was told to have sex, but no one told me how. If we’re talking about the technical part, it is very important.” He told researchers that without formal resources available to them, men were having to pass on information “by word of mouth.”

In response to the researchers’ findings, Veteran Hub created a guide for veterans on how to restore their sexual lives after being wounded.

“We saw that there was a great demand for this topic. After physical rehabilitation, people start asking themselves whether they will be able to swim in the sea, go skiing, go on dates, or have sex. And usually no one can answer these questions,” said Veteran Hub project manager Kateryna Skorohod.

Olga Serdyuk, the head of a sexual educational program at a network of rehabilitation centers called Recovery, said: “We need to understand that a wounded person works with different specialists – surgeons, physiotherapists, psychologists – on the way to rehabilitation. Because there is a lack of sexologists in Ukraine, those doctors must be ready for the person to open up to them and talk about sexual rehabilitation.”

To help widen their knowledge, Recovery launched a course called “Sexual Life” to train doctors and other professionals working with Ukrainian soldiers.

Serious injury changes the life of not only the veteran but also their partner, Serdyuk explained.

“For some reason, Ukrainian society believes that a good wife should take care of her husband on her own, even if there is an opportunity to get help. A woman becomes a carer. What kind of sex can we talk about then?” Serdyuk said, referring to how the pressures of full-time caring can lessen a couple’s capacity to explore paths to sexual fulfilment.

“Even if we are talking about complete dysfunction or missing genitals, a person (who’s been injured) can still have an orgasm with pleasure. You have to work with your fantasies, study your body.”

People need to learn to accept themselves in a new way, and believe in their integrity, their body, Serdyuk said.

Ukrainian ‘Bachelor’ stars double amputee

Discussions surrounding disabilities are increasingly cropping up in Ukraine as casualties rise.

Popular dating show “The Bachelor” has taken the discussion into the mainstream, with 26-year-old Ukrainian veteran Oleksandr Budko – who lost both his legs in the war – cast as the star of the latest season.

An episode with an intimate scene, shown in November, became one of the most popular in the season. According to data provided by Starlight Media, a Ukrainian broadcasting group, about 2.8 million people all around the country watched it, making it the most viewed program on the day it aired.

“We were concerned about how people would react to seeing a person’s body with visible amputations in such an intimate context. There is no representation of people living with injuries in Ukraine and we didn’t know how people would react to it. It was a big challenge. But it turned out well.”

Kalyna thinks the audience was interested, in part, because they realize that in this time of war their own loved ones could be injured at any moment.

On his Instagram page, Budko said he was not taking part in the show to convince anyone of anything or prove his “normality.”

“My prostheses or even sometimes a wheelchair are just a part of me, but not what defines me,” he posted. “The fact that I have a disability does not make me less worthy of love or a happy life. And this is important to understand.”

Budko also posted that his first experience of sex after injury “was not just sex, but a step back to life.”

Choosing life over suffering

Among those to attend Recovery’s “Sexual Life” course is Oleksandr Batalov. The unit infantry commander, who works as an osteopath in civil life, lost his leg in a fierce battle on the front line. He recalls that it took time for him to get used to his changed body.

“At the beginning, with such trauma, you want no one to look at you. But my wife gave me huge support. So, I got a grip. I chose life, not suffering,” he said. The psychologist helped a lot, he added.

There are very few sexologists in the hospitals, he said, but men who have experienced serious injuries are talking about sex with one another, and that’s important. However, “they need to have specialists they can talk to” as well, Batalov said.

That’s why he is starting this course. “If you survived, you have to live. Despite the injury, my life is full and interesting, I want to leave and study and share the knowledge,” said Batalov, who is now working again as an osteopath.

The same goes for Tsymbaliuk, the injured combat medic. She decided to live a fulfilling life no matter what. Her boyfriend did not give up and proposed again.

After months of rehabilitation in Germany, and later in Ukraine’s Superhumans Center, she finally married him, realizing “she was full of love that she wanted to fulfil.” Four months ago, they welcomed their first child together.

“I’m not hiding my prosthetic. I’m living a full life. And I’m happy,” she said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Meta on Friday told employees that its plans to end a number of internal programs designed to increase the company’s hiring of diverse candidates, the latest dramatic change ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s second White House term.

Janelle Gale, Meta’s vice president of people, made the announcement on the company’s Workplace internal communications forum.

Among the changes, Meta is ending the company’s “Diverse Slate Approach” of considering qualified candidates from underrepresented groups for its open roles. The company is also putting an end to its diversity supplier program and its equity and inclusion training programs. Gale also announced the disbanding of the company’s diversity, equity and inclusion, or DEI, team, and she said that Meta Chief Diversity Officer Maxine Williams will move into a new role focused on accessibility and engagement.

Several Meta employees responded to Gale’s post with comments criticizing the new policy.

“If you don’t stand by your principles when things get difficult, they aren’t values. They’re hobbies,” one employee posted in a comment that got reaction from more than 600 colleagues.

The DEI policy change follows a number of sweeping policy reversals by the social media company this month. Last week, Meta replaced global affairs head Nick Clegg with Joel Kaplan, a veteran at the company with longstanding ties to the Republican Party. On Tuesday, Zuckerberg announced a new speech policy that included bringing an end to the company’s third-party fact-checking program.

Axios was first to report the DEI changes at the social media company. Meta didn’t immediately provide a comment.

You can read Gale’s memo, which CNBC obtained, in full below:

Hi all,

I wanted to share some changes we’re making to our hiring, development, and procurement practices. Before getting into details, there is some important background to lay out:

The legal and policy landscape surrounding diversity, equity and inclusion efforts in the United States is changing. The Supreme Court of the United States has recently made decisions signaling a shift in how courts will approach DEI. It reaffirms long standing principles that discrimination should not be tolerated or promoted on the basis of inherent characteristics. The term “DEI” has also become charged, in part because it is understood by some as a practice that suggests preferential treatment of some groups over others.

At Meta, we have a principle of serving everyone. This can be achieved through cognitively diverse teams, with differences in knowledge, skills, political views, backgrounds, perspectives, and experiences. Such teams are better at innovating, solving complex problems and identifying new opportunities which ultimately helps us deliver on our ambition to build products that serve everyone. On top of that, we’ve always believed that no one should be given — or deprived — of opportunities because of protective characteristics, and that has not changed.

Given the shifting legal and policy landscape, we’re making the following changes:

On hiring, we will continue to source candidates from different backgrounds, but we will stop using the Diverse Slate Approach. This practice has always been subject to public debate and is currently being challenged. We believe there are other ways to build an industry leading workforce and leverage teams made up of world-class people from all types of backgrounds to build products that work for everyone.

We previously ended representation goals for women and ethnic minorities. Having goals can create the impression that decisions are being made based on race or gender. While this has never been our practice, we want to eliminate any impression of it.

We are sunsetting our supplier diversity effort within our broader supplier strategy. This effort focused on sourcing from diverse-owned businesses; going forward, we will focus our efforts on supporting small and medium sized businesses that power much of our economy. Opportunities will continue to be available to all qualified suppliers, including those who are part of the supplier diversity program.

Instead of equity and inclusion training programs, we will build programs that focus on how to apply fair and consistent practices that mitigate bias for all, no matter your background.

We will no longer have a team focused on DEI. Maxine Williams is taking on a new role at Meta focused on accessibility and engagement.

What remains the same are the principles we’ve used to guide our People Practices:

We serve everyone. We are committed to making our products accessible, beneficial and universally impactful for everyone.

We build the best teams with the most talented people. This means sourcing people from a range of candidate pools but never making hiring decisions based on protected characteristics, (e.g., race, gender, etc.). We will always evaluate people as individuals.

We drive consistency in employment practices to ensure fairness and objectivity for all. We do not provide preferential treatment, extra opportunities or unjustified credit to anyone based on protected characteristics. Nor will we devalue impact based on these characteristics.

We build connection and community. We support our employee communities, people who use our products and those in the communities. We operate our employee community groups (MRGs) continue to be open to all.

Meta has the privilege to serve billions of people every day. It is important to us that our products are accessible to all, and useful in promoting economic growth and opportunity around the world. We continue to be focused on serving everyone and building a multi-talented, industry-leading workforce from all walks of life.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The 10-Year Treasury Yield has gone up a full percentage point, from a low of 3.6% in September 2024 to a level of 4.6% this week. So what does this rapid rise in interest rates mean for your portfolio? Let’s look at the shape of the yield curve by comparing multiple maturities, review how recent moves on the yield curve relate to previous recessionary periods, and analyze the most important charts to gauge a potential impact.

Higher Rates Mean Bad News for Borrowers

The chart of the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) has effectively been in a wide trading range since mid-2023. The 10-Year has fluctuated between lows around 3.6-3.8% and highs in the 4.7-5.0% range. As we’re now seeing a 4.7% yield on the 10-Year, we could be setting up for a retest of the 2023 high around 5.0%.

Higher rates can definitely put pressure on industry groups like homebuilders, because this move in the 10-Year means new home buyers can expect much higher mortgage payments. In terms of broad market implications, the shape of the yield curve could have even more significance in the coming months.

The bottom two panels show the spread between the 10-year point on the yield curve compared to two other maturities: the 3-month and 2-year points. In recent years, we have experienced an inverted yield curve, where the short-term yields are higher than long-term yields.  But with the Fed lowering short-term rates, and long-term rates turning back higher, we once again have a normal shaped yield curve.

The Yield Curve Is No Longer Inverted — So What?

Investors love to debate whether a recession is likely, because that confirms that the economy is no longer growing as it usually does. But given the lag in economic data, investors can actually look at the shape of the yield curve to determine if conditions are present that suggest a recessionary period is coming.

Here, we’re taking the 2-year vs. 10-year points on the yield curve and plotting that spread back to 1985. I’ve placed a red vertical line where the yield curve turned back to a normal shape after being inverted, and I’ve also included orange-shaded areas which represent recessionary periods.

You may notice that over the last 40 years, every time we’ve had an inverted yield curve where the spread then turned back positive, we’ve seen a recession soon afterwards. You may also notice that the performance of the S&P 500 (bottom panel) confirms that the yield curve moving back to a normal shape usually happens just before a bear market begins.

While the long-term implications of a normal shaped yield curve are bullish, as they imply optimism about future economic growth, the reality is that the short-term environment for stocks is usually fairly unstable.

Market Trend Is What Matters Most

So what do we do given this bearish headwind for stocks going into 2025? I would argue that now, more than ever, it pays to follow the trend. As long as the medium-term and long-term trends in the S&P 500 remain constructive, then I’ll want to follow that uptrend until proven otherwise.

My Market Trend Model is designed to track the trend in the S&P 500 on three time frames: short-term (a couple days to a couple weeks), medium-term (a couple months), and long-term (over a year).  As of mid-December, the short-term model turned bearish for the S&P 500. The medium-term and long-term models remain bullish through last Friday.

I consider the medium-term trend to be the most important, as it serves as my main “risk on/risk off” measure. When the model is bullish, that tells me to look for long ideas and take on additional risk. When the model is bearish, that tells me to focus more on capital preservation than capital growth.

The short-term model turned negative five times in 2024, but the medium-term model remained bullish in all five cases. This helped me understand that those were brief pullbacks within a longer uptrend phase. If and when the medium-term model turns negative, you’ll hear me take on a much more cautious tone on my market recap show, as I’ll be looking for opportunities to take risk off the table.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

S&P 500 earnings are in for 2024 Q3, and here is our valuation analysis.

The following chart shows the normal value range of the S&P 500 Index, indicating where the S&P 500 would have to be in order to have an overvalued P/E of 20 (red line), a fairly valued P/E of 15 (blue line), or an undervalued P/E of 10 (green line). Annotations on the right side of the chart show where the range is projected to be based upon earnings estimates through 2025 Q3.



Historically, price has usually remained below the top of the normal value range (red line); however, since about 1998, it has not been uncommon for price to exceed normal overvalue levels, sometimes by a lot. The market has been mostly overvalued since 1992, and it has not been undervalued since 1984. We could say that this is the “new normal,” except that it isn’t normal by GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) standards.

We use GAAP earnings as the basis for our analysis. The table below shows earnings projections through September 2025. Keep in mind that the P/E estimates are calculated based upon the S&P 500 close as of December 31, 2024. They will change daily depending on where the market goes from here. It is notable that the P/E remains outside the normal range.

The following table shows where the bands are projected be, based upon earnings estimates through 2025 Q3.

This DecisionPoint chart keeps track of S&P 500 fundamentals, P/E and yield, and it is updated daily — not that you need to watch it that closely, but it is up-to-date when you need it.

CONCLUSION: The market is still very overvalued and the P/E is still well above the normal range. Earnings have ticked up and are projected to trend higher for the next four quarters. Being overvalued doesn’t require an immediate decline to bring valuation back within the normal range, but high valuation applies negative pressure to the market environment.


Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV’s YouTube channel here!


(c) Copyright 2025 DecisionPoint.com


Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.


Helpful DecisionPoint Links:

DecisionPoint Alert Chart List

DecisionPoint Golden Cross/Silver Cross Index Chart List

DecisionPoint Sector Chart List

DecisionPoint Chart Gallery

Trend Models

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)

On Balance Volume

Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)

ITBM and ITVM

SCTR Ranking

Bear Market Rules

The composition of the top five sectors remains unchanged this week, despite an interrupted trading week. This stability comes against a backdrop of mixed signals and potential defensive rotation in the broader market. Let’s dive into the details and see how these sectors are holding up.

  1. XLY, Consumer Discretionary
  2. XLC, Communication Services
  3. XLF, Financials
  4. XLK, Information Technology
  5. XLI, Industrials

Performance-wise, our equal-weight portfolio of these sectors is down 0.66% against SPY, which itself is down 0.44%. (Note: This analysis is based on data about an hour before market close on Friday, January 10th. Any significant shifts after this time will be addressed in a weekend update if necessary.)

Sector-by-Sector Analysis

Consumer Discretionary: Strong Despite Decline

Consumer Discretionary remains well above its breakout level, which took out the peak of 2021. As a result, the sector has some room to decline — say, back to the support area around 210 — without harming the uptrend. This resilience keeps Consumer Discretionary in a very strong position despite the current price decline.

Communication Services: Promising but Precarious

The Communication Services sector is holding up from a relative perspective. While the relative strength line and RRG lines are still positive, the RS momentum line is stalling. This is causing the tail on the RRG to roll over, albeit still inside the leading quadrant.

The biggest concern for XLC comes from the price chart. After breaking out in November 2024, the sector is dropping back into the boundaries of its old rising channel. In my experience, when price retreats into a rising channel after an upside breakout, it often tests the lower boundary. For XLC, this could mean a drawback to around 90-92.5 — a support area marked by the rising support line of the old channel.

Financials: Breaking Down

XLF, after a few weeks of consolidation, now seems to be breaking a rising trend line. It’s also close to taking out the previous low around 47.60. If we close below this level on the weekly chart, we’ll have a confirmed lower low and lower high in place for XLF — opening up the downside towards the first support level around 46.

Relative strength for XLF is dropping back below its previous resistance level, which should have acted as support, but isn’t. This is causing the RRG lines to roll over, with XLF’s weekly tail close to crossing from leading into the weakening quadrant.

Technology: Stable but Facing Resistance

The technology sector has remained relatively stable, trading in a condensed area with high volatility over the last 2-3 months.

XLK hasn’t managed to break above the resistance just above 240, which is therefore becoming increasingly heavy. However, it’s still within its rising channel, with potential support of around 222. XLK’s relative strength remains stable, slightly moving higher within its trading range, which is causing both RRG lines to move higher.

With RS ratio below 100 and RS momentum above 100, XLK’s tail is inside the improving quadrant with a positive heading — which continues to make it one of the better sectors.

Industrials: On the Edge

The industrial sector, still number 5 on our list, is testing the lower boundary of its rising channel. So far, it hasn’t broken down.

Relative strength is slowing down, continuing the trend from last week. The tail is still inside the weakening quadrant heading for lagging, but the price decline seems to be stalling at the current level.

Industrials is on the edge — a definitive break out of the rising channel would add to its weakness and lead to even weaker relative strength. For now, though, it’s holding above support despite the loss of relative strength.

RRG Analysis: A Mixed Picture

It’s interesting to note that on the RRG for all sectors, our top five are located either in the leading quadrant (XLY, XLC, XLF), the weakening quadrant (XLI), or the improving quadrant (XLK). All other sectors are inside the lagging quadrant, none with a positive heading.

This RRG isn’t the strongest I’ve ever seen, but it’s all a relative game — and that’s what this experiment is about. We’re trying to beat the S&P 500, so we need to be in the sectors furthest to the right, preferably with a strong heading.

Daily RRG: Signs of Defensive Rotation

When we look at the daily RRG, the picture shifts. While XLC, XLK, and XLY are still furthest to the right (albeit without the strongest headings), XLI and XLF are inside the improving quadrant, rapidly heading towards leading. A quick analysis of other sectors shows Utilities (XLU), Health Care (XLV), and Energy (XLE) rapidly approaching the leading quadrant — indicating a more defensive rotation in the near term.

What’s Next?

The daily RRG’s defensive rotation is translating into a weaker chart for SPY. I’ll be creating a separate article focusing more on the development in the S&P 500 to keep it distinct from this “Best 5 Sectors” series. Be on the lookout for that additional analysis shortly.

#StayAlert and have a great weekend. –Julius