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The Democratic National Convention in Chicago drew generally positive impressions from a key swath of voters in battleground states surveyed by The Washington Post.

Optimism, energy and support for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris were the most common themes that stood out to sporadic or uncommitted voters.

To gauge voters’ reactions, The Post sent out an email to participants in a spring poll of registered voters in six battleground states in conjunction with George Mason University’s Schar School.

The callout asked voters to explain: “What stood out to you most from the Democratic convention?” They were also asked to describe ideas they heard that were both good and bad.

Of the 111 respondents, 75 watched or listened to the convention or news about it and were asked for their reactions, offering a glimpse at responses to the Democratic convention among potentially decisive voters, though the sample is too small to provide statistically meaningful results. Those who replied were allowed to answer the questions confidentially, as is typical in public opinion surveys.

One Pennsylvania Democrat, a 55-year-old White woman, saw a re-energized party on display over the four days. “There’s more excitement and anticipation with Kamala Harris than I’ve seen since Obama,” she said. “People seem more energized and hopeful for the future.”

She also listed several issues Democrats talked about that she thought would be good for the country: “Stabilizing the economy, restoring reproductive choices and rights, immigration.”

A Michigan independent woman who leans Democratic noted how different the Democratic convention tone was from the Republican one. “One highlighted inclusivity and joy, and the other fear mongering and misrepresentations and outright lying.” The 70-year-old added that she found it wonderful “to see so many women in so many different positions in government come out and speak. It was inspiring.”

The most common criticisms were that Democrats focused too much time attacking former president Donald Trump while not explaining their policies.

“Most of the speeches seemed to be ad hominem attacks against Trump rather than [talking] about policy,” a 21-year-old White Republican woman in Georgia said.

All of the voters contacted are part of a large pool of people The Post and Schar School have classified as “Deciders,” voters who either had not been firmly committed to President Joe Biden or Trump or whose participation in November is not wholly predictable because of their age, voting history or both. The Post’s Deciders live in one of six key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.

Overall, 50 of the 111 voters who responded said they had a “positive” general impression of the Democratic National Convention, while 25 were negative.

About one-third of the respondents, 36 of them, said they didn’t watch or listen to the convention or the news about it, so they were not asked for their reactions to the Democrats’ convention. Self-identified Democrats and 2020 Biden voters were more likely to watch the Democratic convention, resulting in more positive impressions of the convention.

A Georgia voter who identified as a Republican but will probably vote for Harris said it appeared that people preferred Harris over Biden as the party’s nominee. The 20-year-old Black man characterized the speech by Harris’s husband, Doug Emhoff, as “interesting.” He said he also liked the Obamas’ speeches and hearing Republicans speaking out against Trump.

Others also praised Democrats for bringing in a lineup of Republicans such as former congressman Adam Kinzinger and Stephanie Grisham, a former White House press secretary and aide to former first lady Melania Trump.

“The thing that stood out to me was the fact that registered Republicans came out to speak on Harris’s behalf,” one Democrat from Wisconsin, a 21-year-old White woman, said. She added that she found vice-presidential candidate and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to be relatable and liked his politics.

While many reviews were positive, some felt that the convention spent too much time attacking the other side.

“The thing that stood out the most was too much Trump-bashing. I am 100% against Trump,” said a 47-year-old White man, a Michigan Democrat who plans to vote for Harris. “But I thought that it was unnecessary for so many of the speakers to continue with the same rhetoric about Trump. It was almost too much.”

Some had criticisms of Harris’s message, such as one 32-year-old White man from Michigan.

“Kamala Harris again has failed to outline policy proposals and tell us what she would do as president,” said the man, a Republican-leaning independent. “The things that she has stated she would do are all things that could have been worked towards during her time as Vice President but she did nothing.”

Several voters said they simply enjoyed watching the convention.

A 23-year-old Asian American Democrat from Michigan named “Lil Jon’s performance and Obama’s speech” as his biggest highlights from the convention. And a 36-year-old White woman from Nevada who also identifies as a Democrat said simply, “The speakers were hopeful and inspiring.”

This Deciders callout was conducted by The Washington Post and George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government on Aug. 23, 2024, among a sample of 111 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin who turn out sporadically or were uncommitted to Biden or Trump this spring. Respondents completed the survey online via an email link. The sample was drawn from the participants of a Deciders survey conducted in April and May, which was drawn from an L2 database of registered voters in each state. Deciders are defined as those who voted in only one of the past two presidential elections; are between ages 18 and 25; registered to vote since 2022; did not plan to vote for either Biden or Trump in the May survey; or switched their support between 2016 and 2020.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

Republican nominee Donald Trump looked cheerful playing golf at his New Jersey club one day earlier this month, then appeared bored in an afternoon news conference and dour during a reception with megadonor Miriam Adelson. He publicly mused about staying home during the Democratic National Convention, letting Vice President Kamala Harris hold the spotlight unchallenged.

Several former aides who have known Trump for years said he always preferred to keep a lighter schedule in August, when his family visited Bedminster and he usually golfed almost every day.

But aides did not want a situation where he was watching the convention every night, getting angry, and then just golfing all day and stewing, according to people who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private interactions. Trump also had grown annoyed with the news coverage that depicted him as not working as hard as his opponent, one person who talked to him said.

So the campaign launched back-to-back events over the past week, with the goal of counterprogramming the Democratic convention and securing news coverage, as other campaigns have often done, but also as a way to keep Trump busy.

The candidate, though, often appeared reluctant. He frequently departed from the policy themes assigned to each day’s event — an attempt to keep him focused on poll-tested messages over his pugnacious impulses — illustrating his continued struggle to find his footing in a changed race.

“The stakes for Trump this election are arguably the highest they’ve ever been. His criminal cases don’t go away if he loses. Yet he seems to be phoning it in, running a remarkably low-energy, undisciplined campaign,” said Alyssa Farah Griffin, a former White House spokeswoman who quit after Trump supporters attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. “From spending days off the campaign trail golfing to coming up with frankly weak nicknames like ‘Kamabala,’ it feels like he’s lost his mojo.”

By Friday, though, Trump found a thumping audience in a packed 20,000-seat arena in Glendale, Ariz., the same one Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz filled a few weeks earlier. He polled the audience on the nickname he settled on for Harris (Comrade Kamala) after several false starts, while sarcastically deriding his advisers as “my geniuses.”

“President Trump has had a robust schedule since he first announced in November 2022,” spokesman Steven Cheung said. “He spent the entire week discussing substantive policy, something that Kamala Harris refuses to do, or can’t do.”

A person close to the campaign said Trump does not like reading issue-focused speeches that do not entertain his live audience. At an event Thursday at the southern border, the first words out of Trump’s mouth took aim not at Harris’s immigration policies but instead at the Democrats’ decision to choose Harris as President Joe Biden’s replacement at the top of the ticket.

Cheung said that Trump “is able to connect with voters through a wide range of events — from massive rallies to more policy-oriented events,” always communicating “his vision for America.”

While speaking to reporters at an economic-themed campaign event in Las Vegas on Friday, Trump falsely claimed that Harris did not mention the border and mocked Harris for repeatedly thanking the crowd before delivering her acceptance speech at the convention.

Asked about the perception that the change in Democratic candidates had thrown him off, Trump responded: “No, I think we’re doing great.” He proceeded to complain about how “unfair” the change was.

“I spent $100 million fighting against a man that won in their party, and we had a debate and the debate was good for me,” he said. “And then all of a sudden they take him out and they put somebody new in that never got a vote.”

Trump has publicly acknowledged his challenge in defining Harris, describing his goal as to portray her as a “communist.” His frustration with his advisers burst into public Wednesday when he mocked them for telling him to focus on politics instead of personal insults. He then polled the crowd on which they preferred and, when they predictably cheered louder for personal attacks, Trump joked, “My advisers are fired.”

He has not fired anyone, but he did bring in several former advisers into the campaign earlier this month, including 2016 campaign manager Corey Lewandowski and former spokesman-turned-super PAC chief Taylor Budowich. On Thursday’s border trip, Trump was accompanied by Stephen Miller, his White House speechwriter and immigration hard-liner who has rarely appeared at campaign events during this election cycle.

Amid concerns about the campaign’s focus, some Trump allies have begun trying to fix some problems. His friend Steve Witkoff, for example, helped broker a détente with Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R), whom Trump extensively attacked during a rally in Atlanta this month. On Thursday, Trump watched Kemp speak positively about him in a Fox News interview and responded with a conciliatory social media post.

At the Glendale rally, hosted by the pro-Trump group Turning Point Action, Trump welcomed the endorsement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who suspended his independent presidential bid early on Friday and received a standing ovation from Trump’s crowd. Trump is also hoping soon to roll out an endorsement from Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democratic congresswoman from Hawaii.

Trump tried to cut into Harris’s acceptance speech by live-blogging his real-time reactions on Truth Social, responding with insults, deflections and non sequiturs. He then called in to both Fox News and Newsmax to continue his attacks.

“Donald Trump immediately melted down and hasn’t recovered since,” Harris-Walz spokeswoman Sarafina Chitika said. “Voters are watching an unhinged and unserious man rant on Truth Social, rave on Fox News and hold bizarre rallies where he rambles for hours about his own problems and throws out strange and dangerous ideas.”

Trump’s campaign logged mentions of his name during the Democratic convention, hoping to depict the Democratic Party as less focused on policy and more on being obsessed with him. Across hundreds of name-drops, DNC convention speakers described Trump as a narcissist, a criminal, a charlatan, a race-baiter and more in searing speeches suggesting he remains the unifying target of the Democratic Party.

Most of his allies offered little defense of his character. There was no rapid response operation to respond to Democratic criticism that he inspired a riot at the U.S. Capitol, paid hush money to an adult film actress or was found liable for sexual abuse. Instead, surrogates and aides attacked Harris and Walz for not addressing Republican policy priorities and made a website portraying Harris’s policy record in a negative light.

“They’re focused on Trump rather than the border, inflation or public safety,” Trump campaign spokesman Brian Hughes told reporters on Tuesday in Chicago. “Obviously their convention is about who they’re running against and not what they’re running for.”

Joining Hughes, with large posters behind them highlighting crimes in major cities, Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) mocked the optimistic message of the convention, inside Trump’s luxurious hotel here. “Joy and vibes isn’t going to put food on the table,” he said. “Go take your joy to the mullahs in Iran and see what happens to you.”

In the coming week, Trump will travel to Michigan, hold a town hall in La Crosse, Wis., a rally in Johnstown, Pa., and then to Washington for the Moms for Liberty summit. Harris and Walz, meanwhile, will spend Wednesday and Thursday campaigning together in a bus tour of Georgia, after which Harris will host a Thursday evening rally in the Savannah area.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

It’s been nearly two years since Jackson Hole Jay saw his shadow and we all endured 6 more weeks of harsh market weather. If you need a reminder, August 26, 2022 was the day Fed Chief “Jay” Powell climbed out of his Jackson “Hole” Economic Symposium to announce “more pain ahead!” This is how the stock market weather turned out after Jay saw his shadow in August 2022:

Wall Street was seeing the “light at the end of the tunnel”, while Jackson Hole Jay saw an avalanche from a brutal winter approaching. The bulls sought hibernation for 6 more weeks, while short sellers were skiing the slopes of Colorado. Eventually, all was fine and the secular bull market emerged a bit later than I expected.

Now let’s fast forward to August 2024 and today’s speech. Jackson Hole Jay poked his head out and saw nothing but cloudy skies – no shadow, so potentially a mild market winter ahead. He went back into his Symposium and Wall Street was left feeling like the worst of the market winter was behind it. We know that August/September is not typically kind to market bulls. It’s one of the reasons I’ve been waving that caution flag for the past 5 weeks or so – even longer if we talk only about semiconductors ($DJUSSC). But it’s also difficult to ignore the risks that we could see a melt up – especially in certain areas of the market now that the Fed has FINALLY changed gears. Jackson Hole Jay all but guaranteed the first rate cut in September in what is likely to be a series of rate cuts. Everyone who follows me knows I’m a stock market statistician/historian. I ALWAYS approach August/September with caution, because of historical precedence. But there have been plenty of exceptions where Wall Street ignores those seasonal risks and bids prices higher.

2024 may be one of those years.

Over the coming days, after watching more rotational clues, I will provide our EarningsBeats.com members a game plan to attack the many opportunities ahead. I see certain asset classes and sectors that are likely to outperform, possibly in a very significant way. I see many stocks that are likely to double, triple, possibly more.

Despite the Fed’s much more dovish tone that will benefit U.S. equities, we’ll have HUGE opportunities on pullbacks. And it’s really hard for me to envision a straight-up move in August/September. There’s a chance of that, but much more likely will be the occasional pullbacks that we can use to build positions in key stocks and ETFs that will sweeten our portfolios as equity prices rise in 2024 and 2025.

I will be announcing the 10 equal-weighted stocks that we’ll “draft” into our 3 portfolios – Model, Aggressive, and Income” on Monday, August 26th, at 5:30pm ET. It’ll be designed, hopefully, to take advantage of what’s likely to happen during the balance of Q3 and into Q4. I’ll also be discussing this Fed change in policy and how I believe it’l impact the stock market. You can attend this with a FREE 30-day trial of our service. Be sure to click that link, kick the EB.com tires, and join me on late Monday afternoon. I’d love to see you!

Happy trading!

Tom

Peloton’s (PTON) stock soared over 38% on Thursday after the company posted positive free cash flow for the second quarter in a row—a first since 2021. Is the turnaround working? Maybe. But investors aren’t waiting around—they’re hopping on.

Peloton came to my attention while reviewing the Market Movers panel on the StockCharts dashboard on Thursday. Simply put, it’s an easy way to find extraordinary market moves.

We all remember Peloton’s pandemic glory days. But as the world reopened, Peloton’s stock took a nosedive—and the weekly chart below tells the story.

CHART 1. WEEKLY CHART OF PELOTON STOCK. The picture of this massive 97% plunge tells the entire story.

Under new leadership, Peloton crafted a turnaround strategy in 2022. Now, the results are finally rolling in, and the latest earnings hint that the company could be pedaling back into profitability.

Zoom in to a daily chart covering the last nine months, and you’ll see Thursday’s dramatic spike much more clearly. But you’ll also see that Peloton has several technical headwinds on the way up.

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF PELOTON. Caution: there’s a lot of resistance above.

Still, if Peloton gets its house in order, this price spike may be the earliest technical entry point for what could be a potential “multi-x” return. Assuming this is the case, what are the levels to watch?

In addition to the daily chart seen above, let’s examine a few important levels from a tactical perspective.

CHART 3. DAILY CHART OF PELOTON WITH ADDED INDICATORS. Notice the rectangle formation, which should provide context in terms of support and resistance.

First, notice the spike in the StockChartsTechnicalRank (SCTR), from a low 20 to nearly touching the 90 line, which signals bullishness across multiple indicators and timeframes.

Next, look below the chart at the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). That, too, jumped to a level higher than the previous nine months, indicating a surge in buying pressure.

Now, look at the price action itself. You can still see the resistance levels above, the first of which ($4.80) price is about to be challenged. Check out the rectangle formation (highlighted in orange). If you’re holding shares, you’re hoping the price doesn’t drop back into the middle—ideally, it’ll bounce off support at the top.

If the price dips, there’s another entry point at the bottom of the formation. With Peloton at its lowest amid a turnaround, a bounce is likely—unless Peloton fumbles the ball, so to speak.

If the price closes below the rectangle, more downside could be in play. How much further down before penny stock territory? It’s anyone’s guess. But now, the rectangle formation may serve as yet another cloud of “technical” resistance following a “fundamental” fail.

At the Close

Peloton is riding that fine line between potential turnaround and pitfall. With some evidence of early success, investors are betting on a multi-x recovery. But technical headwinds loom large ahead of its current breakout. Whether Peloton breaks out or dips back down hinges on its ability to execute its turnaround strategy. Stay sharp—this could be a make-or-break moment and a ground-level market opportunity.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

When a stock surges based on a strong earnings report, analyst upgrade, or other fundamental factors, it’s tempting to jump into the stock. But often, when a stock’s price spikes due to a one-off fundamental event, there’ll be a pullback, one that will present a better technical picture of the stock. For this reason, it’s best to scope out stocks that have the potential to be an attractive investment, and then set an alert for when the price hits a certain threshold.

Workday Inc. Stock Has Potential

The StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) ranked Workday Inc. stock as the highest Top Up in the Large Cap category (this can change during the trading day).

STOCKCHARTS SCTR REPORT IDENTIFIES TECHNICALLY STRONG STOCKS.

Workday Stock’s Price Action

The weekly chart of Workday, Inc. (WDAY) below shows the stock has seen pretty choppy action. As a result, WDAY may be an appropriate intermediate-term trade rather than a long-term investment.

CHART 1. WEEKLY CHART OF WORKDAY STOCK. The stock price has broken above its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. If an uptrend (series of higher highs and higher lows) is established, the stock could rise as high as $310.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Applying the Fibonacci retracement levels from the most recent low in October 2022 to February 2024 high, WDAY has broken above its 38.2% retracement level. The stock has yet to show an uptrend (series of higher highs and higher lows). Although the relative strength index (RSI) has moved above 50 (lower panel), its SCTR score is relatively low at around 35, though it’s spiking (top panel). The stock has the potential to reach $310; however, there are a few resistance levels along the way WDAY has to overcome.

When Should You Buy WDAY?

The daily chart shows that WDAY broke out of a trading range with a massive upside gap (see chart below). Before the gap, the stock price was at its 100-day simple moving average (SMA), which looked like a strong resistance level. Note the 100-day SMA is trending downward.

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF WORKDAY STOCK. The stock price gapped higher on a strong earnings report. Is it enough to push the price higher toward its all-time high?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Had it not been for the strong earnings report, the stock may have fallen. The one-day gap up in price makes it difficult to determine when to enter a long position in WDAY stock. The candlestick bar suggests that the stock is trying to move higher, but faces greater selling pressure. This indicates there could be a pullback in price together with slowing momentum. You want to see momentum increase before buying a stock, so it makes sense to add a momentum indicator, such as the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD), to your analysis.

In the daily chart, the MACD line crossed above the signal line (lower panel) and has moved above the zero line. The height of the MACD histogram bars is also increasing. All these point to increasing buying pressure, but it’s in the early stages.

Looking at the overall chart, if WDAY stock price falls and fills the gap, look for an entry point just above the lower blue dashed line as long as the momentum remains strong. If the momentum weakens, there’s no reason to enter a trade.

Conversely, the stock price could continue to rise above the upper blue dashed line. There needs to be an increase in momentum so there’s follow-through in the upside price movement. If accompanied by a rise in the SCTR score above the 70 level, it could make for a profitable position trade, given that WDAY’s stock price could go as high as $310. Always place a stop-loss order a little below your entry price, and if the stock price moves in your favor, use a trailing stop.

When Should You Exit WDAY?

Since this is a position trade, don’t let your emotions get in the way. Any time your entry conditions are violated, exit the trade. There are always opportunities in the stock market. There’s no reason to tie your capital into one trade that’s not going the way you want it to go.

The bottom line. Save WDAY to your ChartList and set an alert for when the SCTR score crosses above 70.

Setting alerts using SCTR is straightforward. Enter the following when creating a new advanced alert:


Alert for WDAY SCTR crossing above 70

[symbol = ‘wday’]

and [sctr > 70]


On the weekly Relative Rotation Graph, the rotation still favors almost every sector over Technology. I discussed the opposite rotations between weekly and daily RRGs in last week’s video, which you can find here.

Real Estate

Working off this weekly chart, many tails are drawing attention to themselves. First of all, XLRE has the longest tail and is powering into the leading quadrant, showing that there is a lot of strength behind this move.

This is confirmed on the price chart, where XLRE is breaking above horizontal resistance, which frees the way for further appreciation. The next target for XLRE is the peak at 46, which was set in August 2022.

Utilities

The second one is Utilities, whose tail has sharply rotated back up toward the leading quadrant, signaling the start of a new up-leg within the already established relative uptrend.

Utilities broke above horizontal resistance a few weeks ago and managed to hold up well, and they now seem to be accelerating higher, targeting the all-time-high level near 78.

The long downtrend in relative strength has stalled, with a potential double bottom in the making. The RRG-Lines are both bottoming out and starting to move higher.

Financials

The financials sector, XLF, is just crossing over into the improving quadrant from lagging as the price is breaking to new all-time highs.

Relative Strength is still captured inside a long trading range, but is on its way to the upper boundary. That is causing the RRG-Lines to turn back up. JdK RS-Momentum has already exceeded 100, and JdK RS-Ratio is closing in on that level.

What is interesting about this particular tail is that it is getting longer. RRG-velocity* is increasing, which suggests an acceleration of the rotation.

*RRG-Velocity measures the distances between the nodes on a tail. By adding up distances, we can calculate the tail length, and by comparing the different distances, we can evaluate whether the rotation is speeding up or slowing down.

Financial – Industries

The RRG above shows the industries inside the financial sector against the S&P 500 as the benchmark. The improvement of relative strength is visible in all groups, as they are all on a positive RRG-Heading between 0-90 degrees. We need to change the benchmark to the financial sector index to find the most promising groups.

This gives a more balanced image of the various industries moving around the sector index (XLF). Where all the industries were on a positive RRG-Heading when benchmarked against $SPX, only four remain when using XLF as the benchmark.

Financial Administration

Going over the individual charts of these four groups, I like the one for $DJUSFA – Financial Administration.

This group halved in value from mid-2021 to mid-2022, then started trading in a range until now. This week, $DJUSFA closed above its previous high, clearing the path for a further rise. This price improvement has also led to an improvement in relative strength, with both RRG lines now rising. This makes it the group that could potentially lead the financials sector in the coming weeks.

This is a small group that holds only four S&P 500 stocks.

Out of these four, when compared to XLF, only FI and GPN show a positive rotation.

Fiserv recently confirmed its uptrend by breaking beyond its most recent peak, around 160, while relative strength seems ready to move out of its trading range.

GPN tested solid support just above 90 twice this year and completed a double bottom from where price is now rallying. The upper boundary of a broad trading range can now be pegged near 140, creating well over 20% upside potential.

#StayAlert and have a great weekend. –Julius


In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, Dave completes a five-part series covering ten charts to watch in August 2024, breaking down to stocks in established downtrends. What would we need to see to confirm a rotation from a distribution phase to an accumulation phase, and where should you set alerts for key charts on your watch list?

This video originally premiered on August 23, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

The body believed to be that of Hannah Lynch, the 18-year-old daughter of British tech tycoon Mike Lynch, has been found by divers searching the wreck of the Bayesian superyacht that sank off Sicily this week, an Italian coast guard official said Friday.

With the wreck located nearly 50 meters (160 feet) underwater, it may still be some time before divers – who have only around 12 minutes to reach and explore the site before having to resurface – are able to retrieve the body.

After retrieving six bodies from the wreck over the past four days, Lynch’s is the final body being searched for by Italian authorities. The body of her father, Mike Lynch, was retrieved and identified on Thursday, an Italian interior ministry official told Reuters.

The British-flagged vessel, with 22 passengers and crew members on board, sank on Monday after its mast, one of the world’s tallest, broke in half during a violent storm. Fifteen people were rescued on Monday and one body was recovered – thought to be that on the onboard chef Recaldo Thomas.

Six others were initially reported missing: Lynch and his daughter; Morgan Stanley International director Jonathan Bloomer and his wife, Judy Bloomer; and prominent American lawyer Chris Morvillo and his wife, Neda Morvillo.

Five days on, Italian authorities are still working to understand how the 56-meter (184-foot) yacht sank so quickly. Unverified security camera footage released Wednesday appeared to show the moment that a waterspout – a type of tornado that spun over Sicily early Monday – sank the vessel.

One witness, the owner of a nearby villa looked out to where the Bayesian was anchored, later watched back his CCTV footage that captured the yacht sinking.

“In just 60 seconds, you can see the ship disappear,” he told Italian outlet ANSA. “You can see clearly what’s happening. There was nothing that could be done for the vessel. It disappeared in a very short time.”

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

An Australian court ruled on Friday that removing a transgender woman from female-only social networking platform Giggle for Girls constituted discrimination, in a landmark decision on gender identity for the country.

Roxanne Tickle in 2022 sued the Australian app and founder Sally Grover for unlawful gender identity discrimination in its services, saying Grover revoked Tickle’s account after seeing her photo and “considered her to be male.”

The Federal Court, Australia’s second-highest, ordered Giggle for Girls to pay Tickle A$10,000 ($6,700) plus legal costs but declined to order the company to issue a written apology, which Tickle had sought.

“Tickle’s claim of direct gender identity discrimination fails, but her claim of indirect gender identity discrimination succeeds,” Judge Robert Bromwich said.

The case marks the first time that the Federal Court has made a ruling on gender identity discrimination since changes were made to the Sex Discrimination Act in 2013.

“This decision is a great win for transgender women in Australia,” said Professor Paula Gerber at Monash University’s Faculty of Law.

“This case sends a clear message to all Australians that it is unlawful to treat transgender women differently from cisgender women. It is not lawful to make decisions about whether a person is a woman based on how feminine they appear,” Gerber said.

Giggle for Girls was marketed as a “safe space” for women to discuss and share their experiences and had some 20,000 users in 2021, court filings show. It suspended operations in 2022 but is due to be relaunched soon, according to Grover.

Bromwich said Giggle for Girls considered only sex at birth as being a valid basis on which a person may claim to be a man or woman. Tickle was assigned male sex at the time of birth but underwent gender-affirming surgery and Tickle’s birth certificate was updated, he said.

“Unfortunately, we got the judgement we anticipated. The fight for women’s rights continues,” Grover said in a post on X.

Tickle called the verdict “healing” and said she had received hateful comments online and that merchandise was created specifically to mock her.

“There is so much hate and bile cast on trans and gender diverse people simply because of who we are,” Australian media quoted her as saying outside the court.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin likes to project himself as a strongman. But his track record of handling recent crises in Russia reveals a different side of his presidential persona: one of paralysis and indecision.

A day and a half after Ukrainian troops stormed a Russian border crossing and continued, almost unimpeded, across the wide green fields of the southern Kursk region, Putin finally made his first public remarks on the matter. He called the incursion a “massive provocation”, accused Ukraine of indiscriminately firing on civilians, and then moved on quickly to other government business, including how to mark Russia’s “Construction Worker’s Day.”

It would take another five days, and the loss of nearly 30 settlements, before he promised a military response.  There was no visit to the region to meet the tens of thousands of evacuees, no declaration of martial law.

In March, after the terror attack at the Crocus City concert hall in Moscow, Russia’s deadliest in decades, it took Putin more than 24 hours to address the nation. Despite a claim of responsibility from ISIS-K, he continued to insist that Ukraine, and the West had played a role. The US had in fact warned Russia an attack could be imminent. Putin never visited the site of the attack, or survivors in hospital.

When Evgeny Prigozhin, then the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, launched his aborted mutiny last June, the Russian leader’s response was marked by inconsistency. After initially slamming the incident as “treachery,” Putin left it two days before speaking publicly again, at which point he thanked the Wagner troops involved for standing down, and offered them military contracts. Then he invited Prigozhin to tea at the Kremlin. Two months later Prigozhin was killed in a mysterious plane crash in Russia.

More distant parallels are also easy to find, and Putin chose this week to highlight one himself.  For the first time in 16 years he visited School No.1 in Beslan, more than a week before the 20th anniversary of the terror attack on the school that killed more than 300 people, many of them children.  In 2017 the European Court of Human Rights found that not only had the Russian authorities failed to act on prior knowledge of an imminent attack, but that the security operation was “disorganized and suffered from a lack of leadership.”

Shock offensive left Kremlin reeling

Experts say Russia’s military response in Kursk has somewhat mirrored the fumbling reactions of its president.

Battlefield accounts have backed up the sense that a motley selection of Russian troops were rushed in, as Moscow grappled with the dilemma of how to balance defending its own soil with keeping up the slow momentum on the eastern front. Ukrainian officials said some troops were redeployed from Kharkiv region and the southern front. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov claimed early on that his special forces unit, the Akhmat brigade, had been deployed. Naval infantry officers from the Black Sea fleet in Crimea are also involved.

The diverse groupings complicated Russian efforts to coordinate its resistance, with one pro-Russian military blogger even noting on August 14 that Ukraine was deliberately creating disruptions and then retreating, “taking advantage of the fact that our diverse forces, who don’t always have good communications with each other, were activated to repel this invasion.”

Russia’s bureaucratic response to the incursion has been equally unwieldy.  Defense Minister Andrei Belousov set up a coordinating council to handle security in the border regions and this week announced he was dividing up responsibilities between no fewer than five different officials.

This, according to the Institute for the Study of War, “will likely create additional confusion within the Russian MoD and friction among the Russian MoD, FSB, and Rosgvardia [Russia’s national guard], all of which are attempting to operate in Kursk Oblast,” and could jeopardize Russia’s ability to mount an effective counterattack.

Ryan, the Australian retired general, agrees Russia is moving beyond the initial knee-jerk response phase, and it should start to look more organized in the days and weeks ahead. But, he believes the past two weeks have also laid bare Putin’s priorities and his own people are not currently top of the list.

“The decision will be Putin’s: What is the most dangerous to him?  Ukrainians in Kursk or not succeeding in the Donbas.  I think at the moment he’s decided that it’s more dangerous to not make this progress in the Donbas than to throw everything at Kursk.”

Experts agree the Kursk incursion has not fundamentally changed Putin’s overarching strategy of attrition – to exhaust Ukraine, and try to outlast its allies. And yet, Ukraine’s surprise move has emboldened those who had previously questioned the West’s policy of limiting certain types of military aid, and their use inside Russia.

And that may well have been part of Ukraine’s strategy.  On August 19, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky allowed his closely held veil of gratitude towards his Western allies to lift momentarily.

“The entire naïve, illusory concept of so-called red lines regarding Russia, which dominated the assessment of the war by some of our partners, has crumbled these days somewhere near Sudzha,” he told a gathering of Ukrainian diplomats, referring to a Russian town that Ukrainian troops had occupied.

His point is that Western fears that Russia may interpret the use of American or British long-range missiles on its soil as a conventional threat worthy of a nuclear response – Russian nuclear doctrine does allow for this – are now more remote than ever, given its lack of a coherent military response to its first foreign occupation since World War II.

“The current NATO strategy for helping Ukraine is a strategy for defeat. It is just a strategy for perpetuating war and allowing Russia to wait us all out,” said Ryan. “We need a fundamental reassessment.”

Former Russian diplomat Bondarev argues Putin’s own reaction serves as further proof that the West needs to formulate a more robust response to Putin’s aggression.

“And that’s why he should not be feared so much.”

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