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After reaching an all-time around $540 in mid-February, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) dropped almost 14% to make a new swing low around $467. With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq bouncing nicely this week, investors are struggling to differentiate between a bearish dead-cat bounce and a bullish full recovery.

There was no question that valuations had become incredibly rich going into the end of 2024, so some sort of corrective move was widely anticipated in Q1 2025. But was the February to March drawdown enough to appease the valuation trolls and empower investors to buy weakness to drive prices to further all-time highs? Today, we’ll lay out four potential outcomes for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

As I share each of these four future paths, I’ll describe the market conditions that would likely be involved, and I’ll also share my estimated probability for each scenario. The goal of this example of “probabilistic analysis” is to expand our thinking of what’s possible, to break down our preconceived market biases, and to open our minds to alternative points of view.

Before we do so, though, I’d love to revisit the last time we conducted this exercise on the Nasdaq 100 back in December 2024.

Going into early January, it appeared that Scenario 4, the Super Bearish scenario, was matching very closely with market action. But a very choppy month of January kept prices fairly stable, and by the end of January the Nasdaq 100 was very close to the end of our Scenario 3.

Back to the current market environment, we’re thinking a Very Bullish Scenario would mean the QQQ continues the current uptrend, which eventually becomes a full recovery to retest the February 2025 high. On the other hand, if this week is really more of a dead cat bounce, then the Super Bearish Scenario could take us all the way down to retest the August 2024 lows.

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

  1. Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.
  2. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop me a comment and let me know your vote!
  3. Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most optimistic scenario, involving the QQQ continuing this week’s rally to retest the recent all-time high.

Scenario 1: The Very Bullish Scenario

I’ve heard plenty of calls that last week’s low was actually “the” low and the bottom is now in. But for the Nasdaq 100 to get all the way back up to $540, we would need to see a dramatic recovery in the Mag 7 names. Without a rally from the mega-cap growth trade, I don’t think it’s even possible for this sort of bull phase to play out.  Given the continued weakness in charts like META, I’d say this is a low probability.

Dave’s Vote: 5%

Scenario 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

What if we do see a recovery in most sectors and themes outside the Mag 7 stocks? Scenario 2 would mean the QQQ can only get up to around $200, because without the biggest growth names participating the uptrend has limited momentum. Breadth conditions would definitely improve in this scenario, as stocks thrive on a decent Q1 earnings season.

Dave’s vote: 20%

Scenario 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

The two bearish scenarios would mean that the recent upswing starts to turn lower as renewed fears of inflation, geopolitical risk, and a weak earnings season all weigh on risk assets. A mildly bearish scenario means perhaps that we see some signs of optimism as investors begin to feel more familiar with the flurry of policy decisions from Washington. And even though we haven’t gained much ground by the end of April, it definitely feels as if the bear phase is limited.

Dave’s vote: 30%

Scenario 4: The Super Bearish Scenario

What if the flurry of policy decisions we’ve seen is just an appetizer, and the main course arrives in April? Given the global instability and economic concerns, it’s not hard to envision a scenario where the February to March drop was the first in a multi-wave decline that takes the QQQ back down to the August 2024 lows. This scenario seems like the most likely outcome based on the breadth and momentum deteriorations we’ve been tracking for months on our daily market recap show.

Dave’s vote: 45%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios?  Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The Zweig Breadth Thrust is best known for its bullish reversal signals, which capture a material increase in upside participation. There is, however, more to the indicator because traders can also use the “setup” period to identify oversold conditions. This report will explain the original Zweig Breadth Thrust and show how these signals work.

Note that our breadth models turned bearish in mid March and the major index ETFs triggered long-term downtrend signals. I am now watching for something that would prove this stance otherwise, such as a Zweig Breadth Thrust. A set up is in the making using S&P 500 data, but this has yet to translate into a signal. We will follow this setup closely in the coming days. Click here for a trial and full access to our reports and videos.

A Sharp Increase in Advancing Stocks 

The Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) indicator uses NYSE advance-decline data to identify major shifts in the percentage of advancing stocks (breadth). The first step is to calculate the percentage of advancing stocks (advances divided by advances plus declines). Second, apply a 10-day EMA. Thus, the indicator is the 10-day EMA of Advances/(Advances + Declines). This formula comes from Greg Morris’ book, the Encyclopedia of Breadth Indicators.

A value of .40 means the 10-day EMA is just 40%, which shows an extremely low percentage of advancing stocks. A value of .615 means the 10-day EMA is 61.5%, which shows an exceptionally large percentage of advancing stocks. For reference, the chart below shows NYSE Advances and Declines in the middle window and the ZBT indicator in the lower window.

From Setup to Signal

The Zweig Breadth Thrust triggers when the indicator moves from an extremely low level to an exceptionally high level in a short period. Such moves show a major turnaround in participation (advancing stocks). A setup occurs when the indicator dips below .40 (40%), and the Zweig Breadth Thrust signals when the indicator surges above .615 (61.5%) within 10 days.

The chart above shows the ZBT indicator (!BINYBT) in the top window, the digital signal in the middle window (!BINYBTD) and the NY Composite in the lower window. The blue shadings show the indicator surging from below .40 to above .615 within a 10 day window (April and November 2023). The pink shadings show two signals that missed the 10 day cutoff.

This indicator can also identify short-term oversold conditions with a move below .40 (40%). The gray vertical lines show instances when this indicator became oversold (March, August, September and October 2023, April and December 2024). Short-term oversold conditions reflect an extreme pullback that can lead to a bounce.

Solid Rationale, but Something Missing

There is a solid rationale behind the Zweig Breadth Thrust, but something is missing. Those “somethings” are Nasdaq stocks. I suspect Zweig used NYSE breadth because he developed it when the big board (NYSE) dominated trading (80s). The Nasdaq is now a major exchange so a modern breadth indicator should include Nasdaq stocks. I would suggest using S&P 500 or S&P 1500 stocks. Nasdaq stocks account for around 30% of the S&P 500, which is the most important benchmark and where institutions are active. Nasdaq stocks account for around 33% of the S&P 1500, a broad index that covers large-caps, mid-caps and small-caps.

The NYSE ZBT Indicator did not move below .40 in mid March, but versions using the S&P 1500 and S&P 1500 did on March 13th. This means two things. First, the S&P 500 and S&P 1500 became oversold and ripe for a bounce. Second, a possible Zweig Breadth Thrust is setting up with March 27th as the cut off date.

The full version of this report is reversed for subscribers. We show how to set up the ZBT indicator using S&P 500 and S&P 1500 breadth, review past signals and analyze the current situation. This report includes custom SharpCharts with links and a video for deeper understanding. Click here to subscribe and gain immediate access. 

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We wrote about the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) poll results a few weeks ago. Since then, the bearish activity on the chart has broken a record for the poll. Going back to the poll’s inception in 1987, we have never seen four weeks in a row of bearish readings above 55%. We are now at bearish extremes for this indicator.

Remember that sentiment, which this poll measures, is contrarian. This means that when market participants are extraordinarily bearish, it is a bullish indication. The opposite also applies; extraordinarily bullish readings are bearish for the market.

Clearly, you can see that, even after and during the bear market in 2022, we never saw a cluster of readings this high. This has put the bull/bear ratio at a very low reading. Typically speaking, this would result in an upside reversal.

One thing we would say is that sometimes poll takers are RIGHT! So while we do see extremely bearish readings, we wouldn’t bet the house that this isn’t a bear market. At DecisionPoint.com we have been monitoring our indicators and participation and we are considering that we are in the throes of a bear market rally and that it isn’t likely to stick around. However, charts like this do have us wondering if the correction is all we’ll get.

Conclusion: Sentiment is extremely bearish on AAII and typically this will lead to a sustained rally. However, we have to understand that sometimes the respondents are correct and we’ll see more downside after all.


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Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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Seeing that the earnings slate is light, this week we focus on certain stocks to watch during uncertain times.

If you are jittery and risk-averse, we have two safer (boring) stocks, plus one tech stock that has shown great relative strength compared to its peers. Let’s do a deep dive into all three.

American International Group (AIG)

Insurance stocks have done quite well in the current volatile environment. As inflation fears mount, it’s ironic that an inflationary sector is a good one to buy in the current cycle.

We can go with a basket of insurance stocks by adding the iShares U.S. Insurance ETF (IAK), which is up 7.3% YTD, but, for this article, let’s focus on one of its leaders, AIG.

Fundamentally, results have been solid and bolstered by a strong buyback program. AIG pays a dividend of 1.9%. Analysts, according to Bloomberg data, have the equivalent of 12 buys, 8 holds, and 0 sells with an average price target at current levels of $85.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF AIG. The stock is one of strongest within its sector and is likely to be more stable.

Technically, let’s keep it simple. Looking at multiple time frames, we are seeing breakouts. There are great risk/reward set-ups based on these patterns. It’s one of the strongest within the sector and looks attractive above $80. 

Shares won’t run up like a tech stock, but, in tougher and unpredictable times, look for more stable and slow growth with solid returns; thus, one of the best within the insurance sector.

John Deere (DE)

Another stock with great relative strength within the Industrial sector is DE. It’s up 11.3% year-to-date and outperforming both the Industrials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) (up 0.2% year-to-date) and the S&P 500 (-4%).

Fundamentally, John Deere’s guidance was not solid. Tariff concerns were mentioned, but — and this is a BIG BUT — CEO John May noted in the call that “75% of all products that we sell in the U.S. are assembled here in the U.S.” This fits well with the narrative coming out of Washington.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF DE. After breaking out of a two-year base, it looks like a great setup.

Technically, we see another great set-up. Shares experienced a major break-out of a two-year base on a weekly timeframe. The daily chart, while a tad more choppy, looks solid as well. The risk/reward set-up is also favorable to the bulls.

Again, kinda boring, but pullbacks have been bought. An upside target of $540 over the next year is very plausible given the base it broke out of on the weekly. Use a near-term stop on a pullback just under the $440 level, depending on your risk tolerance.

Broadcom (AVGO)

Broadcom (AVGO) is anything but boring. It’s the third biggest weight in the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH), fourth in the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) and eighth in S&P 500. It’s one of the biggest stocks in a sector that has been struggling. And yet, when you look at it technically, it’s a top name with great relative strength.

Fundamentally, AVGO had a great quarterly result. AI chip revenue was up 220% y-o-y to $12.2 billion. The $69 billion acquisition of VMWare (end of 2023) is starting to pay dividends, as it helped expand its software business now that it has a full year under its belt. Like most semiconductor stocks, it hasn’t recovered since the DeepSeek news.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF BROADCOM STOCK. AVGO has retraced to its 200-day simple moving average and looks like a good risk/reward setup.

Yet technically, shares have retraced back to the rising 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and held. That level also coincides with the gap from which it broke above. Thus, the former major resistance area now becomes support. This gives investors a good risk/reward set-up, using the recent lows just below $177 as a near-term stop.

We can also see a bullish crossover in the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD), which signaled a buy signal last week. Between solid support holding, good technical relative strength, and a MACD buy signal, shares could run back to $215. That target would reach its declining 50-day moving average. If we see momentum come back into the sector, this should lead the rally.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

If one word could characterize this week’s stock market price action, it would be “sideways.” At least it’s better than trending lower.

The stock market seemed comfortable with the Federal Reserve’s message on Wednesday, but lost that upside momentum and wasn’t able to follow through on the upside move until the last 30 minutes of Friday’s trading.

The Dow ($INDU), S&P 500 ($SPX), and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) managed to eke out gains, ending the week on a slightly optimistic note.

On the bright side, the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) pulled back from its March 10 level. Even quadruple witching Friday—when contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single-stock futures all expire—didn’t see volatility spike too high. That said, the VIX is still elevated, relatively speaking, so we’re not exactly in complacent territory.

Quarterly earnings reports from Nike, Inc. (NKE), FedEx Corp. (FDX), and Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) didn’t help. The most troubling of the three is FDX. FedEx’s performance indicates the overall health of the U.S. economy. Tariffs, declining consumer confidence, and uncertainty about economic growth could be headwinds, for FedEx and other companies.

The weekly chart of FDX below shows the stock is trading below its 150-week exponential moving average (EMA) with its 40-week EMA trending lower. FDX has been underperforming the Industrials Select Sector SPDR (XLI) since early September 2024.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF FEDEX STOCK. FDX is trading below its 150-week EMA and underperforming the Industrial sector. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Be sure to save this chart to your ChartLists. It acts like a monitor to check the U.S. economy’s pulse.

Precious Metals Shine

But it’s not all negative. Gold and silver prices have trended higher with gold hitting an all-time high this week. The daily six-month chart of gold futures ($GOLD) below shows that gold prices are trading above $3,000 per ounce.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES. Gold prices have rallied most of the year and could keep rising if investors invest in safe-haven assets such as gold. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

In addition to trading above its 50- and 200-day SMAs, gold is outperforming the S&P 500. A rise in gold prices indicates risk-off sentiment, and, if investors continue to sell off stocks, gold prices could rise further. This is another valuable chart to monitor when uncertainty reigns.

Next week is heavy on macro data, so this back-and-forth movement could continue. Fasten your seatbelts.


End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 up 0.51% on the week, at 5667.56, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.2% on the week at 41,985.35; Nasdaq Composite up 0.17% on the week at 17,784.05.
  • $VIX down 11.39% on the week, closing at 19.28.
  • Best performing sector for the week: Energy
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Utilities
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Elbit Systems, Ltd. (ESLT); XPeng, Inc. (XPEV); Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Applovin Corp. (APP); Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB)

On the Radar Next Week

  • March S&P Global PMI
  • February PCE
  • Q4 GDP Growth Rate (final)
  • Fed speeches from Bostic, Barr, Kugler, and others

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

China is practicing “dogfighting” satellites as part of its expanding capabilities in space, according to the United States Space Force, which warned that Washington’s key rivals are closing the technology gap as space becomes increasingly critical to security on Earth.

The Space Force observed “five different objects in space maneuvering in and out and around each other in synchronicity and in control,” its vice chief of space operations Gen. Michael A. Guetlein said Tuesday at a defense conference.

“That’s what we call dogfighting in space. They are practicing tactics, techniques, and procedures to do on-orbit space operations from one satellite to another,” Guetlein said, using a term that typically refers to close-range aerial combat between fighter jets.

While the purpose of such operations was not clear – and some experts question the use of the term – Guetlein’s comments come as analysts say a growing number of countries, including China, have sought to develop counterspace technologies.

Such capabilities could enable a country to destroy or disable satellites, potentially allowing them to interrupt a rival military’s communications or operations like launching and detecting missiles. Such interference could also wreak havoc on global navigation systems used for everything from banking and cargo shipping to ambulance dispatch.

The US has been closely watching China’s rapid rise as a space power in recent decades, not only through its ambitious lunar and deep-space exploration programs, but also what analysts describe as its deepening counterspace capabilities.

In response to a question about China and Russia, Guetlein said they had developed “exquisite” capabilities. He cited the deployment of jammers to disrupt satellite signals, the ability to dazzle intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance satellites with lasers, as well as maneuvers involving grappling with a satellite and towing it to a different orbit.

“This is the most complex and challenging strategic environment that we have seen in a long time, if not ever,” Guetlein said, adding that the force needs “capabilities to deter and, if necessary, defeat aggression” to “guarantee that the advantage is in our favor” into the future.

“There used to be a capability gap between us and our near peers, mainly driven by the technological advancement of the United States … that capability gap has significantly narrowed,” he said.

The “dogfighting” incident referenced by Guetlein involved a series of Chinese satellite maneuvers in 2024 in low Earth orbit involving three Shiyan-24C experimental satellites and two Chinese experimental space objects, the Shijian-6 05A/B, a Space Force spokesperson said.

Beijing has released little public information about its experimental satellites and such operations. The country included safeguarding its “security interests in outer space” among its national defense goals in a 2019 white paper but has long said it stands “for the peaceful use of outer space” and opposes an arms race there.

‘Dogfighting’ in space?

Given the physical dynamics in space, the maneuvers described by Guetlein as “dogfighting” would look very different from those in the air between fighter jets, in this case involving satellites maneuvering around one another using propellant, experts say.

Analysts have long been closely monitoring interactions between satellites and other objects in space. Typically referred to as “rendezvous and proximity operations,” these maneuvers can be used for peaceful operations like satellite maintenance or clearing debris – but could also allow countries to interfere with adversaries’ assets.

“Close maneuvering around other satellites could suggest the development of a counterspace weapon because getting close to another satellite means you could potentially grab it, launch a net or projectile at it, or use an energy weapon, like a laser or jammer,” said Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington.

“But getting close to another satellite might also suggest other purposes, like in-space servicing or refueling. It could also be one satellite trying to take a picture of the other one,” he said, adding that China is launching “more and more satellites that demonstrate the ability to conduct sophisticated maneuvers.”

“We don’t really know for sure, at least not publicly, what any of these satellites are up to, but some are probably doing surveillance and also testing out new space technologies that could be used as counterspace weapons,” Swope added.

There is no confirmed public evidence of China using counterspace capabilities against any military targets, the independent US-based Secure World Foundation said in an annual report on countries’ counterspace capabilities last year.

Russia and the US are also known to conduct proximity operations to their own and other satellites, she added.

“It’s hard to say if this Chinese capability is something that the US doesn’t have since we’re learning about it from US commercial SSA (space situational awareness) companies, who are generally reluctant to discuss what US satellites are up to,” she said.

Referring to China’s operations as “dogfighting” in space is “not helpful” because it “automatically ascribes hostile intentions to activities that frankly the US also undertakes,” Samson added.

Currently, the US doesn’t have an acknowledged operational program to target satellites from within orbit using other satellites or spacecraft, though it could likely quickly field one in the future, according to SWF’s annual report.

That’s because the US has done extensive “non-offensive” testing of technologies to approach and rendezvous with satellites, including close approaches of its own military satellites and several Russian and Chinese military satellites, the foundation said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The southern Ukrainian port city of Odesa was engulfed in flames late Thursday after being struck by a large-scale Russian drone attack, hours after US President Donald Trump expressed optimism about ending the war and as peace talks are set to resume on Monday.

Trump – who recently held separate phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelensky on implementing a partial ceasefire – projected optimism about reaching an end to the war on Thursday, saying “we’re doing pretty well in that regard.”

Delegations from Russia and the US are expected to resume talks on ending the war on Monday in Saudi Arabia, both countries’ officials said, following an earlier round of talks in February.

Zelensky said a team from Ukraine will also attend, with parallel meetings likely to take place, and urged Putin to “stop making unnecessary demands that only prolong the war.”

“I believe we’ll get it done. We’ll see what happens,” Trump said on Thursday, referring to the talks.

Hours after Trump spoke, Russia launched a “massive” drone attack on Odesa, hitting civilian targets and injuring at least three people, including a minor, local officials said.

A high-rise residential building and a shopping center were among the targets, local governor Oleh Kiper said.

Czech President Peter Pavel was in the port city on an official visit at the time of the attack, Ukrainian official Oleksiy Kuleba said.

Meanwhile, Russian assaults wounded at least five others near the southern city of Zaporizhzhia on Thursday, local governor Ivan Fedorov said.

Nearly 200 drones also hit the Kirovohrad region in central Ukraine overnight into Thursday, wounding 10 people, including four children, and damaging homes, a church, and key infrastructure, Zelensky said.

“Russian strikes on Ukraine do not stop, despite their propaganda claims. Every day and every night, nearly a hundred or more drones are launched, along with ongoing missile attacks. With each such launch, the Russians expose to the world their true attitude towards peace,” Zelensky said Thursday on X.

Ukraine and Russia have exchanged aerial assaults in the days since the Kremlin agreed to temporarily halt attacks on energy infrastructure targets, but stopped short of signing off on a broader ceasefire sought by the US.

Overnight into Thursday, Ukraine struck a military airfield deep inside Russian territory, sparking a huge explosion and destroying nearby houses, Russian and Ukrainian officials said.

Ukraine’s military confirmed it was behind the attack on Engels airbase – more than 465 miles from the Ukrainian border – saying it targeted the airbase because it is used by Russia’s air force “to launch missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine and terrorist attacks against the civilian population.”

Zelensky on Wednesday accused Putin of already breaking his pledge, saying that Russia attacked Ukraine with 150 drones, including strikes on energy facilities.

Zelensky has said he is “ready” to pause attacks on Russia’s energy and civilian infrastructure, saying his team will prepare a list of civilian targets to be included in a future deal.

Ukraine “unconditionally agrees” to a ceasefire, but is “waiting for the aggressor to agree,” Zelensky said Thursday while speaking at a press conference in Norway.

Putin announced the halt on energy infrastructure attacks on Tuesday after a lengthy call with Trump. “Vladimir Putin responded positively to this initiative and immediately gave the Russian military the corresponding order,” a Kremlin readout said.

As part of its demands for a broader ceasefire, the Kremlin laid out several tough conditions that Putin had previously insisted on – such as a halt to all foreign military aid and intelligence to Kyiv, and a halt to any Ukrainian mobilization or rearming during that period.

Zelensky spoke to European leaders on Thursday as they reaffirmed their support for Ukraine, calling on other Western leaders to match words of support for Kyiv with deeds, as Trump escalates his courting of Russia.

“The stronger they are on the battlefield, the stronger they are behind the negotiation table,” the European Union’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas said of the Ukrainians, according to Reuters.

The meetings in Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh on Monday are designed for US and Russian officials to hammer out more specific language on the deal reached by Trump and Putin, as well as other areas of negotiation toward a full ceasefire. The talks won’t involve Cabinet-level US officials, the State Department said Wednesday.

This story has been updated with additional information.

Correction: This story has been updated to correct the name of the Ukrainian official Oleksiy Kuleba.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Sudan’s army has reclaimed the Presidential Palace in the capital, Khartoum, in a significant victory over a rampaging militia that controls swaths of the war-torn country.

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have viciously scrambled for territory since fighting broke out between them in April 2023. The conflict has triggered one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises and has left more than 28,000 people dead with 11 million others forced to flee their homes, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data initiative.

The RSF has laid siege to Khartoum and the Sudanese seat of power since the start of the war. On Friday, the government said its troops had seized control of the Presidential Palace and would continue its push to retake the capital.

“Today the flag is raised, the palace is back, and the journey continues until victory is complete,” information minister Khalid Al-Aiser wrote on X.

The Sudanese justice ministry hailed the “liberation of the Republican Palace,” describing it as “a symbol of national sovereignty.”

“It is quite significant for SAF and central and north Sudanese possibilities of IDPs return,” she said, adding that some questions, however, remained answered.

“The question of Sudan’s governance and to what extent SAF is open to a political process with RSF and other political actors or continues with the war remains a question.”

Photos of government troops celebrating at the palace were shared on social media by the military.

“Our forces … completely destroyed the enemy’s personnel and equipment and seized large quantities of its equipment and weapons,” a military spokesperson said Friday morning in a televised broadcast.

Later on Friday, the RSF said in a Telegram post that “the battle for the Republican Palace is not over yet,” adding that its forces “are still present in the vicinity of the area” and had “carried out a swift military operation targeting a gathering … inside the Republican Palace, killing more than 89 enemy personnel and destroying various military vehicles.”

Local media reported that the palace was hit by a drone, killing an unknown number of soldiers, as well as journalists from the state broadcaster.

Parts of Khartoum are still held by the RSF militia which controls the country’s western, southern and central regions, including Darfur where ethnically motivated killings are common. The SAF administers the eastern and northern parts of the country.

Retaking Khartoum would be symbolic for the SAF whose rival the RSF had begun steps to establish a parallel government. But it would also come at a great cost for the Sudanese people as civilians are often caught in the crossfire.

“Dozens of civilians, including local humanitarian volunteers, have been killed by artillery shelling and aerial bombardment by the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces in eastern Khartoum and north Omdurman since 12 March,” a spokesperson for the United Nations Human Rights Office, Seif Magango, said Thursday as fighting intensified in the capital.

Sudan’s warring parties have each been accused of war crimes. In January, the United States accused the RSF of committing genocide, the second in the country in two decades.

This month, a new report from UNICEF also linked the SAF to atrocities that included sexual violence against young children, some as young as one.

“Credible reports indicate that the RSF and allied militia have raided homes in eastern Khartoum, carrying out summary killings and arbitrary detentions, and looted food and medical supplies from community kitchens and medical clinics,” Magango added. “SAF and affiliated fighters are also reported to have engaged in looting and other criminal activities in areas they control in Khartoum North (Bahri) and East Nile. Widespread arbitrary arrests are ongoing in East Nile.”

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Ivik Knudssen-Ostermann, whose company runs boat tours to see Greenland’s glittering blue icebergs, says his bank has told him to expand ahead of an expected influx of tourists after US. President Donald Trump put the island in the global spotlight.

Trump’s comments, coupled with the opening of a new international airport in the capital Nuuk, have already boosted arrivals and more are expected.

“Already now, we are getting many more bookings than we have received earlier, especially because of a man with the last name of Trump. He has really put Greenland on the map once again,” Knudsen-Ostermann, operator of Greenland Cruises, said, standing on the dock of an ice-packed harbor.

Greenland became the focus of international attention in January when Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., arrived at the newly opened Nuuk airport.

Since then, the US president has doubled down on his pledge to make the Arctic island part of the United States, as he eyes its vast wealth of rare earth minerals critical for high-tech industries.

Greenland is hoping new airports will bolster its tourism and mining industries to diversify the economy, which is currently reliant on fishing for 95% of its exports.

The country’s vast ice sheet, glaciers, deep fjords and abundance of marine life, including whales, are the key attractions, while pride in the local Inuit culture is also growing.

The opening of the airport in Nuuk in November last year has made travel to the island easier. United Airlines is set to begin direct flights from New York to Nuuk in June, replacing the previous route which required tourists to fly via Copenhagen and transit at the former U.S. military base Kangerlussuaq.

Ilulissat, Greenland’s main tourist hub known for its UNESCO-listed ice fjord, is also due to open a new international airport in 2026, while another international airport is under construction in Qaqortoq in southern Greenland.

“We will see quite a significant growth this summer already,” said Jens Lauridsen, CEO of Greenland Airports.

While the bank is telling Knudsen-Ostermann to get more boats and more people, he says he is cautious.

“I want to see what the new airport brings us, what 2025 brings us. We don’t know the future, so I’m holding back a little,” he said.

Statistics Greenland reported a 14% year-on-year rise in the number of passengers on international flights to Greenland in January. The number of hotel nights has seen a steady increase over the past decade, with 355,000 recorded last year, up from 210,000 in 2014, it said.

Three-quarters of tourism operators reported an increase in bookings in the three months following the opening of Nuuk’s new airport, according to Visit Greenland.

Lars Ipland, a Danish tourist in Nuuk, said Greenland was one of the last parts of the world he hadn’t seen.

“It’s a part of Denmark, so I thought I have to see it. Now with all the attention, you don’t know what’s happening next week or if it’s another flag up here or whatever they decide to do.”

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Violent clashes erupted across several cities in Turkey between opposition supporters and state security forces for a second day, as demonstrators demand the release of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, according to videos and reports from Turkish media outlets.

Police in capital city Ankara and Istanbul fired tear gas and used water cannons to disperse protesters gathering, social media videos and local media outlets in Turkey showed.

Turkish authorities detained Imamoglu – a key political rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – on Wednesday, as part of corruption and terrorism investigations. Detention orders were also issued for about 100 others connected to the mayor, including his press adviser Murat Ongun, according to state-run news agency Anadolu Agency on Wednesday.

Friday’s protests follow several violent instances on Thursday. At least 16 police officers were injured during clashes with protesters across Turkey on Thursday, according to Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya, and at least 53 people were detained. It’s unclear how many protesters were injured during the ongoing protests.

On Thursday, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader, Ozgur Ozel, addressed crowds in Istanbul while on a bus rooftop. “We will not stay home while you keep our elected representative locked up. From now on we are on the streets. They are asking me ‘Are you calling people to take the streets?’ Yes, yes, yes!” Ozel said.

Erdogan has dismissed opposition anger as “theatrics” and “slogans” for which Turkey has no time.

Thousands again protested outside the Istanbul municipality building on Friday, defying a four-day ban on street gatherings in the city, waving Turkish flags and chanting slogans in protest over the decision. Protests led by university students also gathered steam in Ankara and Izmir, where the prohibition is also in effect.

Imamoglu was elected mayor in 2019 and again in 2024. The next presidential vote is scheduled for 2028, but some analysts say Erdogan could call for early elections, which would allow him to bypass term limits.

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