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A fire broke out at a ski resort hotel in northwestern Turkey on Tuesday, killing at least 10 people and injuring another 32, according to the country’s Interior Minister.

The fire, which broke out at a hotel in the Kartalkaya resort in Bolu province, was reported around 3:27 a.m. local time, Turkey’s Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said on X.

The resort is a popular destination for holiday-makers in the winter, especially during school holidays, which run from January until the first week of February.

There were around 234 guests staying at the hotel, Governor Abdulaziz Aydin told the state-run Anadolu Agency.

Two of the victims died after jumping out of the building “in a panic,” Aydin said.

According to Yerlikaya, authorities mobilized 267 emergency personnel to respond to the blaze.

A number of videos, some shared on social media and others broadcast by Turkish TV stations, showed flames coming out of the top floors of the hotel. Some people were seen using tied bed sheets to try to escape the blaze.

Turkey’s Interior, Tourism and Health ministers are en route to the Kartalkaya resort and are expected to hold a press conference later on Tuesday, the ministries said.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

So far, this has been a fairly entertaining start to the new year! The S&P 500 started off with a bounce to 6050, pushed briefly below our line-in-the-sand level of 5850, and then finished this week with a retest of 6000. While the VIX remains fairly low relative to historical levels, it feels as if our “emotional volatility” remains pretty elevated!

In recent interviews for !

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

  1. Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.
  2. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop me a comment and let me know your vote!
  3. Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most optimistic scenario, with the QQQ achieving a new all-time high over the next six to eight weeks.

Option 1: The Very Bullish Scenario

What if the S&P 500 resumes the uptrend phase from September through November of 2024? The very bullish scenario would mean the SPX pushes above the previous all-time high at 6100 and does not look back. Trump takes off and, instead of shocking the market with fears of inflation, his new policy decisions represent a more measured approach to tariffs. The Magnificent 7 names resume their leadership role, earnings season is a blowout blast of bullishness, and the S&P 500 hits 6500 before February 1st.

Dave’s Vote: 10%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

Perhaps the Magnificent 7 stocks don’t return to new all-time highs, but continue to remain rangebound over the next month. Value sectors like financials and industrials take on a leadership role, and small caps finally begin to outperform their large cap cousins. Trump’s early policy decisions still feel inflationary, and as a result, investors are hesitant to take on more risk until we get more clarity.

Dave’s vote: 30%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

What if last week was a countertrend move higher, often known as a “dead cat bounce”, and over the next few weeks we see another down leg for the S&P 500? There are notable breakouts in the value sectors, but the mega-cap growth trade still doesn’t take off. Inflation fears increase as the new president takes office, and investors hang on every economic release for signs of optimism. The mildly bearish scenario would mean a retest of the January swing low around 5800, and we begin the month of March wondering whether 5800 will hold this time around.

Dave’s vote: 50%

Option 4: The Super Bearish Scenario

We always have to consider the doomsday scenario, where conditions deteriorate much more quickly than expected. Earnings season is a bust, Trump’s new administration lights up tariffs, and inflationary fears lead to low confidence in the Fed’s ability to take decisive action. The S&P 500 pushes down to the 200-day moving average, and after a brief bounce, drops down to around 5500 by the end of February.

Dave’s vote: 10%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios? Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Our strategy at EarningsBeats.com just simply makes good common sense. If you want to find the best earnings reports BEFORE they’re reported, follow relative strength. I’ve explained this many times, but let me do it again. Wall Street firms talk to management of companies throughout the quarter until four weeks before the company’s quarter ends and the extended period leading up to when a company makes its earnings announcement to the public. This prohibits anyone from gaining insider information before it’s released to the public.

Following the price action is, in some ways, gathering information prior to quarterly reports being released. But it’s legal. It provides us a sense of what the big Wall Street firms believe about a company’s prospects and those firms communicate frequently with management teams during “non-quiet periods”.

During past quarters, I’ve done studies on how company’s report earnings given their relative strength status among peers. It’s been quite obvious to me that if you are a relative leader in price performance on your charts heading into an earnings report, then odds are much greater that the company will release strong results. It’s definitely no guarantee, but in trading, we’re looking for clues that boost our odds. After 40 years of investing/trading, I’m not aware of ANY strategy that works all the time.

Bank Earnings

JP Morgan Chase (JPM) posted great results, but it was very easy to assume great earnings were coming. Why? Well, look at the chart and check out the relative strength line, which hit a 52-week high in December, the last month of Q4:

This is the definition of a leading stock within a leading industry group. Those bottom two panels are as important a clue as anything I’ve seen in determining whether a company will beat its revenue and earnings estimates. In the case of JPM, this revenue and earnings beat led to higher price action, but that’s not always the case. Therein lies the reason why buying leading relative strength stocks will not always mean a gap higher in price. There’s this thing called, “buy on rumor, sell on news” that can result in selling after a hugely bullish revenue and earnings beat. But the beats tell me to add JPM to a watch list and pounce on the buy side when it’s appropriate (breakout, pullback to support, etc.).

Our last EB Digest newsletter article from Wednesday, January 15th featured another financial stock that looks quite similar to JPM in terms of relative strength and being a leader in a leading industry group. Check out Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR), which will report its earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell:

IBKR has been strong, gaining 114.45% over the past year, but it’s relative strength keeps pushing higher and higher. It’s also a part of a very strong investment services industry group ($DJUSSB). I see another HUGE earnings report coming on Tuesday. I’m not sure whether it gaps higher or not, but if revenues and earnings beat consensus estimates, the IBKR will be saved onto a Watch List (for us, that means our Strong Earnings ChartList, or SECL). Then we could consider buying on an after-earnings pullback sometime down the road.

Weekly Market Recap

Every weekend, I recap the prior week’s action and today’s was quite interesting. After all, what do the inflation folks cling onto now? We just saw both December Core PPI and December Core CPI come in below expectations and the 10-year treasury yield ($TNX) dropped like a rock. Meanwhile, we’ve now seen the yield curve uninvert, leading to strength in banks ($DJUSBK). For a discussion about all of this, be sure to check out our YouTube video, “The Ghost of Inflation? Market SOARS on Tame Inflation Data”. While you’re there, please help us by hitting the “Like” and “Subscribe” buttons. Leave a comment and let me know if you agree or disagree with my discussion.

EB Digest – FREE Newsletter

If you’re not already an EB Digest subscriber, please register now. It’s completely FREE with no credit card required and it’s simple to sign up. REGISTER HERE to enter your name and email address and, on Tuesday, I’ll send you yet another leading stock in a leading industry group poised to deliver BLOWOUT earnings results when they report.

Happy trading!

Tom

World leaders have been rushing to get on Donald Trump’s good side since his reelection as US president, arguably none more so than Ukraine.

In his annual New Year address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had “no doubt that the new American president is willing and capable of achieving peace and ending Putin’s aggression,” in comments that embody his approach to winning over Trump.

Just days later, Zelensky told an American podcaster that Trump won as he was a “much stronger” candidate than Kamala Harris, adding, “He showed that he can do it intellectually and physically.”

Zelensky isn’t alone among prominent Ukrainians in trying to butter up Trump. In November, a Ukrainian MP from Zelensky’s party even nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize, according to a letter seen by the Kyiv Independent.

Such tactics have long been favored by foreign powers. Think of how China took Trump to the Forbidden City or the UK government enlisted the royals during his last term in the White House.

Years on, the stakes could not be higher for Ukraine. Kyiv enters 2025 on the backfoot in its war against Russia, with Ukrainian forces struggling to hold back Russian advances in the east, where they are vastly outnumbered. Its chances of retaking occupied Russian territory anytime soon look increasingly slim.

Under outgoing President Biden, the US became the single largest provider of military assistance to Ukraine and Kyiv remains keenly aware that it needs to stay on Trump’s side to secure future support.

‘Peace through strength’

“He must at least try to get him on Ukraine’s side in order to secure the best possible outcome for Ukraine, which depends enormously on American support.”

Trump has repeatedly stressed the need to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, suggesting that negotiations could be on the horizon. His envoy’s plan to end the war contains much that will please the Kremlin.

Zelensky has said he wants to “work directly” with the new president and appears more willing to – or perhaps has no choice but to – make battlefield concessions.

“Of course, Ukraine would want to recapture all land it lost. However, after three years of this exhausting war, recapturing all land is nowhere in sight. With a heavy heart, Ukrainians are slowly coming to accept this,” Hosa said.

Zelensky has frequently described Trump as strong, an apparent effort to appeal to a president-elect who has made “peace through strength” a rallying call.

“Trump could be crucial. I think this is the most important thing for us. His qualities are like that. He can be decisive in this war. He can stop Putin,” Zelensky told United News, Ukraine’s wartime TV network, earlier this month.

Aligning interests

Another factor is that unlike previous US administrations, Trump fundamentally believes he can have good relations with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. He has long expressed his admiration for Putin while other world leaders have shunned him and has pledged to meet with him “very quickly” after he takes office.

For his part, Putin – who was condemned as a “butcher” by Biden – seems open to building ties with Trump. Following Trump’s election win, Putin offered his congratulations, calling him a “courageous man.” During his year-end news conference in December, he said he was ready to meet with him.

Lutsevych believes that the Ukrainian government is trying to present Kyiv’s defeat over Moscow as something that would strengthen America’s “power projection” on the world stage.

“This is the game; whether Trump will believe this is a viable strategy is another question,” she said.

And Zelensky has offered other benefits. In October last year, he pitched the idea of swapping out some US forces based in Europe with Ukrainian troops once Russia’s war in Ukraine is over. He argued that the wartime experience of Kyiv’s forces could be put to good use, bolstering NATO – the military alliance which Ukraine has been offered assurances it will join – and helping to ensure security in Europe, something that is likely to appeal to a US leader who has demanded Europe do more on defense.

Zelensky has also appealed to Trump’s business-focused mind. His so-called ‘Victory Plan,’ unveiled in October last year, includes a significant deal with the US on minerals – a critical resource Ukraine is rich in.

According to a report in the New York Times, the signing of the minerals deal was pushed back twice, with the possible motive of allowing Trump to take credit for it when he takes office.

Lutsevych posited that Kyiv would be making a lucrative offer to the US, in economic terms. “We’ve seen that in this ‘Victory Plan,’ that it includes critical minerals, it includes investments… [Ukraine is] basically trying to say that it can be profitable for America.”

But while flattering Trump is a common tactic, his unpredictability means there are few guarantees it will work.

Trump’s welcome by then-British monarch, Queen Elizabeth II, back in 2019 did not stop him from firing off a series of angry tweets moments before stepping off his plane, describing London Mayor Sadiq Khan as a “stone cold loser.” He then labeled then-British Prime Minister Theresa May as “foolish.”

Hosa believes there is evidence Zelensky’s approach is paying off, with Trump acknowledging it would take longer than 24 hours to end the conflict – a claim he made in July 2024 – in a sign of his shifting attitude.

“He [Zelensky] faced a choice: flatter Trump or be forced to capitulate to Putin,” Hosa said.

“Flattery is a small price to pay for a better outcome than that.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

At least 70 people were killed and more injured in northern Nigeria on Saturday when a petrol tanker truck overturned, spilling fuel that exploded, the country’s national emergency agency said.

The accident in Niger state follows a similar blast in Jigawa state last October that killed 153 people, one of the worst such tragedies in Nigeria.

“As of this report, over 70 bodies have been recovered, 56 individuals are injured, and more than 15 shops have been destroyed,” the National Emergency Management Authority said in a statement.

“The injured have been transported to hospitals for treatment, while recovery efforts for the deceased are ongoing.”

A Reuters witness said residents and officials were digging graves with a view to bury the victims on Saturday night in accordance with Islamic rites. Niger is a largely Muslim state in Africa’s most populous nation.

Earlier, Kumar Tsukwam, the Federal Road Safety Corps sector commander for Niger state, said most of the victims were impoverished local residents who had rushed to scoop up the spilled petrol after the truck overturned.

“Large crowd of people gathered to scoop fuel despite concerted efforts to stop them,” Tsukwam said in a statement.

Tsukwam said firefighters had managed to put out the fire.

Such accidents have become common in Africa’s largest oil producer, killing dozens of people in the country grappling with its worst cost of living crisis in a generation.

The price of petrol in Nigeria has soared more than 400% since President Bola Tinubu scrapped a decades-old subsidy when he came into office in May 2023.

Bologi Ibrahim, spokesperson to Niger state governor, said residents should give priority to their safety when petrol tanker trucks are involved in accidents.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Carrying her small daughter, an Israeli mother stood amid a crowd of people next to the helipad of the Sheba Medical Center in Tel Aviv, which on Sunday received the three former hostages released in a ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas.

“How good is it that you’ve come home,” read a sign in Hebrew held by the young daughter.

The helicopters, which took off from southern Israel, near the Gaza border, carried Romi Gonen, Doron Steinbrecher and Emily Damari – the first of 33 hostages set for release during the first phase of the deal that went into effect Sunday morning.

The three women were kidnapped by Hamas during its attack on October 7, 2023, which killed more than 1,200 people and took more than 250 others captive.

Footage shared by the Israeli government shows the three women arriving at the hospital, draped in Israeli flags and embracing their families.

In exchange, Israel is expected to release 90 Palestinian prisoners and detainees, including 69 women and nine minors, the youngest of them 15 years old.

Near the Sheba hospital, a group of Israelis played music and sang patriotic songs on Sunday night. As medical vehicles carried the hostages from helicopters to the medical facility, dozens chased the vans, chanting their names.

“Thank you, thank you,” one woman cried as she was embraced by another.

Earlier in the so-called Hostages Square in central Tel Aviv, a wave of applause overtook the plaza once the hostages were announced to be in the custody of the Red Cross.

People hugged, waved flags and cried at the news. For many Israelis, it was a moment they had dreamt of throughout the 15 months of war in Gaza.

“Romi is coming back! Emily is coming back! Doron is coming back!” a group chanted in the square.

Confirmation of the handover for the crowd came on a large television screen in the square, which was broadcasting Al Jazeera with Israeli commentary playing in the background.

‘Everybody is crying’

Among those waiting for the hostages’ release was 29-year-old Shay Dickman, who stood at the center of the square carrying banners of all three women. She is a cousin of Carmel Gat, who was kidnapped by Hamas on October 7, 2023, and killed in captivity. Another cousin of hers was released in the short-lived ceasefire-and-hostages deal of November 2023.

Tania Coen-Uzzielli, director of Tel Aviv Museum of Art, had been watching the square – where Israelis gather daily to express solidarity with the hostages – from her nearby museum every day.

She said that previously, she had sometimes felt that the return of the hostages was “wishful thinking.” Their release brings “unbelievable” emotions, she said.

Coen-Uzzielli said she could feel “the pulse” of the plaza every day, as it is right next to her museum.

“Everybody is crying,” she said.

Mai, another woman, who declined to give a second name, said, “We can breathe a little more again” after months of waiting. “And we are going to be here until the very last one comes back.”

The first phase of the agreement is expected to last six weeks, during which time 30 other hostages are to be gradually released.

The war has been devastating to Palestinians living in the besieged enclave. The military offensive launched by Israel in response to Hamas’ October 7 attacks has killed nearly 47,000 Palestinians and injured 110,750 more, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.

The war has also displaced nearly all of Gaza’s population of more than 2 million people, flattened swathes of the territory in an Israeli bombing campaign and triggered a spiraling humanitarian crisis.

Israel has not committed to ending the war, but has said it will take part in negotiations to progress the ceasefire to its next phases. Mediators in Cairo, including Egypt, Qatar and the United States, will monitor the implementation of the deal.

Coen-Uzzielli, the art museum director, said she hopes that the remaining hostages are freed and that the war finally comes to an end.

“I really hope that an international force will influence the ultimate decision to continue the release of the hostages and to stop this tragic war,” she said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

More than 80 people were killed in the country’s northeast over the weekend following the government’s failed attempts to hold peace talks with the National Liberation Army, a Colombian official said.

Twenty others were injured in the violence that has forced thousands to flee as Colombia’s army scrambled to evacuate people on Sunday, according to William Villamizar, governor of North Santander, where many of the killings took place.

Among the victims are community leader Carmelo Guerrero and seven people who sought to sign a peace deal, according to a report that a government ombudsman agency released late Saturday.

Officials said the attacks happened in several towns located in the Catatumbo region near the border with Venezuela, with at least three people who were part of the peace talks being kidnapped.

Thousands of people are fleeing the area, with some hiding in the nearby lush mountains or seeking help at government shelters.

“We were caught in the crossfire,” said Juan Gutiérrez, who fled with his family to a temporary shelter in Tibú after they were forced to leave behind their animals and belongings. “We had no time to grab our things. … I hope the government remembers us. … We are helpless here.”

Colombia’s army rescued dozens of people on Sunday, including a family and their pet dog, whose owner held a pack of cold water against the animal’s chest to keep it cool as they evacuated by helicopter.

Defense Minister Iván Velásquez traveled to the northeast town of Cúcuta on Sunday where he held several security meetings and urged armed groups to demobilize.

“The priority is to save lives and guarantee the security of communities,” he said. “We have deployed our troops throughout the entire region.”

Officials also prepared to send 10 tons of food and hygiene kits for approximately 5,000 people in the communities of Ocaña and Tibú, the majority of them having fled the violence.

“Catatumbo needs help,” Villamizar said in a public address on Saturday. “Boys, girls, young people, teenagers, entire families are showing up with nothing, riding trucks, dump trucks, motorcycles, whatever they can, on foot, to avoid being victims of this confrontation.”

The attack comes after Colombia suspended peace talks with the National Liberation Army, or ELN, on Friday, the second time it has done so in less than a year.

Colombia’s government has demanded that the ELN cease all attacks and allow authorities to enter the region and provide humanitarian aid.

“Displacement is killing us here in the region,” said José Trinidad, a municipal official for the town of Convención, located in the North Santander region. “We’re afraid the crisis will worsen.”

Trinidad called on insurgent groups to sit down and hammer out a new agreement so “us civilians don’t have to suffer the consequences that we’re suffering right now.”

The ELN has been clashing in Catatumbo with former members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, a guerrilla group that disbanded after signing a peace deal in 2016 with Colombia’s government. The two are fighting over control of a strategic border region that has coca leaf plantations.

In a statement Saturday, the ELN said it had warned former FARC members that if they “continued attacking the population … there was no other way out than armed confrontation.” The ELN has accused ex-FARC rebels of several killings in the area, including the Jan. 15 slaying of a couple and their 9-month-old baby.

Army commander Gen. Luis Emilio Cardozo Santamaría said Saturday that authorities were reinforcing a humanitarian corridor between Tibú and Cúcuta for the safe passage of those forced to flee their homes. He said special urban troops also were deployed to municipal capitals “where there are risks and a lot of fear.”

The ELN has tried to negotiate a peace deal with the administration of President Gustavo Petro five times, with talks failing after bouts of violence. ELN demands include that it be recognized as a political rebel organization, which critics have said is risky.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Pope Francis has criticized US President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to deport immigrants as a “disgrace.”

The pontiff, speaking during an Italian television interview, was asked about the incoming Trump administration’s plans to expel undocumented immigrants through an aggressive slate of immigration executive orders by the incoming president, who will be inaugurated Monday.

“If it is true, it will be a disgrace, because it makes the poor wretches who have nothing to pay the unpaid bill. It won’t do. This is not the way to solve things,” Francis said during the Sunday interview.

The Pope has made advocacy for migrants a key part of his papacy, insisting they should be welcomed and integrated into societies.

It’s also a topic which resonates personally with Francis. In his new autobiography, the Pope recalled how his paternal grandparents and father had planned to sail in 1927 on the Principessa Mafalda from Italy to Argentina, which sank with the loss of many lives, but ended up making a later crossing.

Francis has signaled that he is ready to take a critical approach to the new Trump administration with his appointment of Cardinal Robert McElroy as the next Archbishop of Washington, DC.

McElroy has described mass deportations of immigrants as “incompatible with Catholic doctrine.”

On Sunday, Cardinal Blase Cupich of Chicago, also criticized the deportation plans. In 2016, Francis suggested then-presidential candidate Trump was “not Christian” for his anti-immigration views.

During the interview, the Pope also said he was appointing a nun, Sister Raffaella Petrini, as president of the commission which governs the Vatican City State.

Petrini will take over from a cardinal in her new role and is expected to take up her position in March. He appointment follows the Pope’s decision earlier this month to appoint the first female leader of a Vatican department.

The Pope also said that his arm, which had been in a sling after he injured it in a fall, is now “moving better.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Chinese leader Xi Jinping may not have personally accepted US President-elect Donald Trump’s invitation to his inauguration, but Beijing has taken the rare step of dispatching a top official to join the swearing-in ceremony in Washington.

Chinese Vice President Han Zheng is expected to attend Monday’s inauguration after meeting incoming US Vice President JD Vance Sunday, in a trip observers say is a significant – but potentially risky – goodwill gesture as Beijing looks to avert major friction with Trump and his incoming cabinet of China hawks.

While Han is the most senior Chinese official to attend a US inauguration, his position of vice president is largely symbolic within China’s political system. True authority lies with the ruling Communist Party’s powerful Politburo Standing Committee, from which Han retired in 2022.

But sending a high-profile official – and one who has previously represented Xi at international events including the coronation of Britain’s King Charles III – signals Beijing’s interest in a reset of fraught relations between the US and China, observers say.

Han has used the visit to meet with members of the American business community, including Tesla CEO and close Trump associate Elon Musk, according to Chinese state agency Xinhua.

In his meeting with Musk, Han called on American companies, including Tesla, to promote US-China trade relations, Xinhua reported. Tesla operates its largest manufacturing plant outside the United States in Shanghai. Musk has yet to confirm the meeting.

Han’s arrival in the US follows a phone call between Xi and Trump Friday, where the Chinese leader congratulated Trump on his reelection and called for a new start in relations.

“We both attach great importance to our interactions, both hope for a good start of the China-US relationship during the new US presidency, and are willing to secure greater progress in China-US relations from a new starting point,” Xi told Trump in the call, according to a readout from the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

Trump confirmed on his social media platform Truth Social that he held a “very good” phone call with Xi, and that they discussed subjects including trade, fentanyl and Chinese-owned social media app TikTok.

The incoming US president on Sunday also pledged to delay enforcement of a controversial law, upheld by the Supreme Court last week, that would see the app banned in the US if its China-based parent company Bytedance does not divest it.

The app – whose fate is closely tied to tech and national security frictions between the US and China – went dark for roughly 12 hours over the weekend before restoring service following Trump’s statement.

TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew is expected to be seated prominently at the incoming president’s inauguration Monday.

Han in Washington

China’s Han and Vance discussed a “range of topics including fentanyl, balancing trade, and regional stability” in their meeting, the Trump-Vance transition team said in a statement on Sunday.

In its readout of the meeting, Chinese state media outlet Xinhua said Han stressed that China is willing to work with the United States to “promote the stable, healthy and sustainable development of China-US relations.”

Han also acknowledged “differences and frictions” over economics and trade, but pointed to the “common interests” and “space for cooperation” between the two countries and called for them strengthen dialogue and consultation, Xinhua reported.

Han’s attendance at the Trump inauguration comes as Trump has broken with precedent set by recent administrations to invite foreign leaders, including Italy’s right-wing leader Giorgia Meloni and Argentina’s Javier Milei.

The incoming president’s invitation last month to Xi – the authoritarian leader of America’s main geopolitical rival – was an exceptionally rare gesture, particularly as the incoming president campaigned on ratcheting up economic competition with China and placing hefty tariffs on Chinese goods.

Xi would have been highly unlikely to attend Monday’s exercise in the democratic transfer of American power, given both the geopolitical context and the lengthy and detailed preparations that typically precede any travel by the Chinese leader.

Chinese ambassadors to the US have attended recent inaugurations, as is standard for many countries, though China’s Foreign Ministry did not confirm that then-Ambassador Cui Tiankai attended President Joe Biden’s.

US-China relations have frayed in recent years, over myriad issues. Those issues include Beijing’s mounting aggression in the South China Sea and toward the self-ruling democracy of Taiwan, as well as US efforts to limit China’s access to American high tech – stressors unlikely to change any time soon, regardless of who is in the White House.

But pushing for less fractious relations is in Beijing’s interests, observers say, as it seeks to stabilize its ailing economy and avoid deepening a damaging tech and trade war with its top single-country trade partner.

In a meeting with representatives of the US-China Business Council, the US Chamber of Commerce and other business people on Sunday, Han called the American business community the “backbone of US-China relations,” according to Xinhua. Han said he hoped that American businesses would “continue to invest in China” and play an “active bridging role” between the two sides, Xinhua reported.

His comments follow what has been a period of trepidation for the American business community about doing business in China, given tensions between the two countries and Beijing’s tightened regulatory scrutiny over foreign access to sensitive information.

Chance for a reset?

Dispatching Han for the inauguration sends a message that “China takes (Trump’s) invitation seriously and is willing to take the risk,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington.

That risk, Yun said, is that Trump slaps tariffs on China just days after entering the White House – a move that Beijing would see as making it look foolish.

On the campaign trail, Trump threatened levying tariffs of upwards of 60% on Chinese imports to the US. In November, he said that China will face higher tariffs on its goods – by 10% above any existing tariffs – citing the role played by Chinese suppliers in America’s drug crisis.

Beijing is not alone in facing such economic threats. A procession of world leaders and their representatives have jostled for meetings in recent months to start building a rapport with Trump, who is known to link foreign policy with personal chemistry.

But even as Beijing faces looming economic frictions and suspicions about its ambitions from within the incoming administration, it’s still likely to see opportunity within Trump’s presidency, observers say.

During the Biden administration, Beijing baulked at US efforts to deepen security coordination with American allies in Asia, as well as the president’s stated support for the US defense of Taiwan, the self-ruling island that Beijing claims.

Now, it sees an opportunity as the incoming Trump administration will come in with its own, distinct priorities for its China policy, according to Suisheng Zhao, director of the Center for China-US Cooperation at the University of Denver.

Trump is expected to focus on economic competition with China rather than on the threat of Beijing to an American-led liberal world order, as the Biden White House did. The incoming president has also in the past expressed an affinity with Xi, calling the Communist Party leader “tough” and “smart.”

“Trump likes Xi Jinping, he likes strongmen, strong leaders,” Zhao said. “Xi Jinping senses these opportunities, and he is equally eager to reset and to test the water at this time.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

A senior Taliban figure has urged the group’s leader to scrap education bans on Afghan women and girls, saying there is no excuse for them, in a rare public rebuke of government policy.

Sher Abbas Stanikzai, political deputy at the Foreign Ministry, made the remarks in a speech on Saturday in southeastern Khost province.

He told an audience at a religious school ceremony there was no reason to deny education to women and girls, “just as there was no justification for it in the past and there shouldn’t be one at all.”

The government has barred females from education after sixth grade. Last September, there were reports authorities had also stopped medical training and courses for women.

In Afghanistan, women and girls can only be treated by female doctors and health professionals. Authorities have yet to confirm the medical training ban.

“We call on the leadership again to open the doors of education,” said Stanikzai in a video shared by his official account on the social platform X. “We are committing an injustice against 20 million people out of a population of 40 million, depriving them of all their rights. This is not in Islamic law, but our personal choice or nature.”

Stanikzai was once the head of the Taliban team in talks that led to the complete withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan.

It is not the first time he has said that women and girls deserve to have an education. He made similar remarks in September 2022, a year after schools closed for girls and months and before the introduction of a university ban.

But the latest comments marked his first call for a change in policy and a direct appeal to Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada.

Ibraheem Bahiss, an analyst with Crisis Group’s South Asia program, said Stanikzai had periodically made statements calling girls’ education a right of all Afghan women.

“However, this latest statement seems to go further in the sense that he is publicly calling for a change in policy and questioned the legitimacy of the current approach,” Bahiss said.

In the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, earlier this month, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Malala Yousafzai urged Muslim leaders to challenge the Taliban on women and girls’ education.

She was speaking at a conference hosted by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the Muslim World League.

The UN has said that recognition is almost impossible while bans on female education and employment remain in place and women can’t go out in public without a male guardian.

No country recognizes the Taliban as the legitimate rulers of Afghanistan, but countries like Russia have been building ties with them.

India has also been developing relations with Afghan authorities.

In Dubai earlier this month, a meeting between India’s top diplomat, Vikram Mistri, and Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi showed their deepening cooperation.

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