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So far, this has been a fairly entertaining start to the new year! The S&P 500 started off with a bounce to 6050, pushed briefly below our line-in-the-sand level of 5850, and then finished this week with a retest of 6000. While the VIX remains fairly low relative to historical levels, it feels as if our “emotional volatility” remains pretty elevated!

In recent interviews for !

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

  1. Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.
  2. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop me a comment and let me know your vote!
  3. Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most optimistic scenario, with the QQQ achieving a new all-time high over the next six to eight weeks.

Option 1: The Very Bullish Scenario

What if the S&P 500 resumes the uptrend phase from September through November of 2024? The very bullish scenario would mean the SPX pushes above the previous all-time high at 6100 and does not look back. Trump takes off and, instead of shocking the market with fears of inflation, his new policy decisions represent a more measured approach to tariffs. The Magnificent 7 names resume their leadership role, earnings season is a blowout blast of bullishness, and the S&P 500 hits 6500 before February 1st.

Dave’s Vote: 10%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

Perhaps the Magnificent 7 stocks don’t return to new all-time highs, but continue to remain rangebound over the next month. Value sectors like financials and industrials take on a leadership role, and small caps finally begin to outperform their large cap cousins. Trump’s early policy decisions still feel inflationary, and as a result, investors are hesitant to take on more risk until we get more clarity.

Dave’s vote: 30%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

What if last week was a countertrend move higher, often known as a “dead cat bounce”, and over the next few weeks we see another down leg for the S&P 500? There are notable breakouts in the value sectors, but the mega-cap growth trade still doesn’t take off. Inflation fears increase as the new president takes office, and investors hang on every economic release for signs of optimism. The mildly bearish scenario would mean a retest of the January swing low around 5800, and we begin the month of March wondering whether 5800 will hold this time around.

Dave’s vote: 50%

Option 4: The Super Bearish Scenario

We always have to consider the doomsday scenario, where conditions deteriorate much more quickly than expected. Earnings season is a bust, Trump’s new administration lights up tariffs, and inflationary fears lead to low confidence in the Fed’s ability to take decisive action. The S&P 500 pushes down to the 200-day moving average, and after a brief bounce, drops down to around 5500 by the end of February.

Dave’s vote: 10%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios? Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

An Indian court awarded a life sentence on Monday to a police volunteer convicted of the rape and murder of a junior doctor at the hospital where she worked in the eastern city of Kolkata, rejecting demands for the death penalty and saying it was not a rare crime.

The woman’s body was found in a classroom at the state-run R G Kar Medical College and Hospital on August 9. Other doctors stayed off work for weeks to demand justice for her and better security at public hospitals, as the crime sparked national outrage over a lack of safety for women.

Sanjay Roy, the police volunteer, was convicted by judge Anirban Das on Saturday, who said circumstantial evidence had proved the charges against Roy.

Roy said he was innocent and that he had been framed, and sought clemency.

The federal police, who investigated the case, said the crime belonged to the “rarest-of-rare” category and Roy, therefore, deserved the death penalty.

“I do not consider it as a rarest-of-rare crime,” judge Das said and sentenced Roy to life in jail on both the counts of rape and murder. “Life imprisonment, meaning imprisonment until death.”

The judge said that he had come to the conclusion that it was not a rarest-of-rare crime after considering all the evidence and the circumstances linked to it. He said Roy could go in appeal to a higher court.

The sentence was announced in a packed courtroom as the judge allowed the public to witness proceedings on Monday. The speedy trial in the court was not open to the public.

The parents of the junior doctor were among those in court on Monday. Security was stepped up with dozens of police personnel deployed at the court complex.

The parents had earlier said that they were not satisfied with the probe and suspected more people were involved in the crime.

Their lawyer, Amartya Dey, told Reuters on Monday that they had sought the death penalty for Roy and also demanded that those involved in what they called the “larger conspiracy” be brought to book.

Protesting doctors had said that street protests would continue until justice was done.

India’s federal police cited 128 witnesses in its investigation, of whom 51 were examined during the fast-tracked trial that began in November.

Police had also charged the officer heading the local police station and the head of the college at the time of the crime with destruction of the crime scene and tampering with evidence.

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As the Gaza ceasefire takes hold, aid workers caution that the toughest challenges are yet to come, describing the truce as only the first step on a long road to recovery.

For humanitarian workers and aid agencies, the road is expected to be long and arduous – with challenges including areas in the north of Gaza that remain hard to reach and criminal gangs that loot United Nations convoys carrying precious food, to a looming Israeli ban on the main UN agency responsible for distributing aid in Gaza.

At least 630 aid trucks entered Gaza on Sunday, with at least 300 of them headed to the north, according to a senior UN official. The UN, which said it has 4,000 trucks ready to enter Gaza, says the availability of food is not the problem, but that the delivery mechanism is wrought with obstacles.

Enough food aid is waiting at Gaza’s borders to feed 1 million people for three months, WFP has said. It also has supplies such as food parcels, wheat flour, commodities for hot meals, and nutrition supplements.

But some areas in Gaza remain totally cut off from aid.

“Barely any food has gone into besieged North Gaza for more than two months. Winter cold and rain are further reducing people’s ability to survive,” WFP warned.

Israel launched a military offensive in northern Gaza in October for the third time since the war began, leading to a “full closure” to aid for the first 15 days of that month, Renard said. Israel had said it was battling resurging Hamas fighters.

Some Gaza governorates began slowly opening up after last October, including in Gaza City, Renard said, but parts of the north remained choked ahead of the ceasefire, which came into effect Sunday.

The northern governorates of Jabalya, Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanoun remain severely restricted. “We had to cut everything (there after the Israeli military operation),” he said.

WFP said that in the north, West Erez (Zikim) crossing is operational, but is only supplying aid to Gaza City. “Access to North Gaza governorate has been consistently denied,” it said.

Israeli ban on UN agency

Apart from cutting off parts of the north, an Israeli ban against WFP’s aid partner, UNRWA, is set to come into effect in two weeks. WFP and UNRWA each support 1.1 million people in Gaza, making UNRWA’s role crucial for aid distribution.

The ban came after Israel accused some UNRWA employees of participating in the attack that left 1,200 people in Israel dead. A UN investigation found that nine employees from UNWRA “may have” been involved in the October 7 attack and no longer work at the agency.

UNRWA has, however, long been a target of Israeli criticism. Israel has accused the UN agency of anti-Israel incitement, which UNRWA denies. In 2017, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought to dismantle the UN body.

Last year, Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, passed two bills; one barring UNRWA from activity within Israel, and another banning Israeli authorities from any contact with UNRWA – revoking the 1967 treaty that allows the agency to provide services to Palestinian refugees in areas under Israel’s control.

The move is expected to severely restrict UNRWA from operating in territories Israel occupies, including Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

“We do not know how Israel is going to implement the Knesset bills,” Renard said, adding that the UN agency will nonetheless remain operational.

It is unclear if the UN has a contingency plan for when the ban comes into effect.

The UNRWA official added that the agency has not received “any communications from the government of Israel on how they plan to implement those bills.”

In response, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said that there are “a lot of other agencies” that can help with humanitarian aid into Gaza.

“We have states that want to help to achieve that goal. So UNRWA is not an objective. UNRWA is also not the solution,” Sa’ar told reporters Sunday, adding that “the UN is in a position to help assure that the objective of the humanitarian aid to Gaza residents won’t be hurt.”

Criminal gangs in Gaza

Another challenge faced by aid groups is looting of relief supplies by criminal gangs operating in Gaza.

One of the ways aid trucks try to mitigate that risk is to use protected roads that aim to circumvent looting areas.

Israel has repeatedly accused the UN of allowing aid that’s been delivered into Gaza to pile up at the enclave’s borders without being distributed. But Renard said that convoys are often looted as soon as they enter Gaza.

Distributors “are too afraid of losing the cargo,” he said.

Palestinian NGOs inside Gaza have previously accused Israeli forces of targeting civil police and other aid safeguarding bodies “to incite chaos and lawlessness.”

“The law and order remain a sticky point, but with the ceasefire coming in, would the blue police be able to operate?” Renard questioned, referring to Gazan civil police.

The war in Gaza has killed more than 46,900 people during the 15 months it has dragged on, according to the health ministry there, as well as decimating large swathes of the territory and displacing nearly the entire population.

The number of people killed is believed to be significantly higher than the figure reported by authorities in the enclave, according to findings announced by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and published in The Lancet journal, which found that the ministry has underreported the death toll due to violence by approximately 41%.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

A British teenager on Monday pleaded guilty to charges of murdering three young girls in a knife attack in northern England in July, a crime that horrified the nation and was followed by days of nationwide rioting.

Axel Rudakubana, 18, changed his pleas from not guilty to guilty on what was due to be the first day of his trial at Liverpool Crown Court.

He pleaded guilty to the murder of Bebe King, 6, Elsie Dot Stancombe, 7, and Alice Dasilva Aguiar, 9, who were at a Taylor Swift-themed dance event in the town of Southport in July.

Rudakubana also pleaded guilty to 10 charges of attempted murder relating to the attack, as well as producing the deadly poison ricin and the possession of an al Qaeda training manual.

Judge Julian Goose said he would sentence Rudakubana on Thursday and that a life jail term was inevitable. Goose noted that the victims’ families were not present to see Rudakubana plead guilty as the prosecution opening was not expected until Tuesday.

Rudakubana, who was 17 at the time of the incident, initially refused to speak when asked to confirm his name, as he had at all previous hearings which meant that not guilty pleas had been entered on his behalf in December.

But, after consulting with his lawyer, he confirmed he wished to change those pleas.

British-born Rudakubana was arrested shortly after the attack in the quiet seaside town north of the city of Liverpool.

Despite the discovery of the al Qaeda manual, police have said the incident was not being treated as terrorism-related.

In the wake of the murders, large disturbances broke out in Southport after false reports spread on social media that the suspected killer was a radical Islamist migrant.

Those disturbances spread across Britain with attacks on mosques and hotels housing asylum seekers, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer blaming the riots on far-right thuggery. More than 1,500 people were arrested.

This story has been updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Eight people died and seven were injured in a fire at a nursing home outside Belgrade on Monday which authorities said was caused by arson, Serbian state TV RTS reported.

The fire started at 3.30 a.m. (9:30 p.m. Sunday EST) local time with 30 people in the home, RTS reported, quoting the head of the government’s department for emergency situations, Luka Causevic.

The fire was put out quickly and all the injured were taken to hospitals in Belgrade. One woman is in a serious condition and on a ventilator, RTS reported.

The prosecutors office said the fire was caused by one of the residents of the nursing home, who was among those who died.

A detailed statement will be released later on Monday.

“There are indications that this tragedy was caused by criminal activity of one individual,” Nemanja Starovic, the minister for labor, employment and social issues, told RTS.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Migrant shelters in Tijuana – located across the border from San Diego, California – are bracing for a possible surge in the influx of migrants should US President Donald Trump carry out his mass deportation plan.

Their worries stem from Trump’s promise to carry out mass deportations once in office.

During his inaugural speech on Monday, Trump reiterated his pledge. “We will begin the process of returning millions and millions of criminal aliens back to the places from which they came,” he said from the US Capitol.

Bracing for the potential surge of migrants entering the city, authorities in Tijuana declared a state of emergency last week.

However, the city’s Mayor Ismael Burgueño Ruiz said last week that Tijuana “isn’t alarmed” and calls the measure “preventive” in case Trump “really does what he says he’s going to do.” Burgueño says the city has prepared spaces should there be a surge of deportees.

‘It’s not just about providing a bed’

Yet Murphy, who has been the director of Casa del Migrante since 2013, says space is not the only issue. “You have to care for them, who is going to organize programs and training for migrants,” Murphy said, adding that he believes local authorities should work closer with the shelters to mitigate any potential crisis.

Marín said shelters need “more economic resources for food, comprehensive medical services” to help with “voluntary return programs to places of origin, more programs where integration and dignity are promoted through employment, more specific attention for people of sexual diversity, [and] more mental health services.”

The Mexican federal government is also preparing for the potential influx of migrants by announcing the creation of new shelters in border towns and “attending caravans.”

In the face of mounting uncertainty, shelters remain committed to their mission.

“With the possible mass deportations, we are working on projects to help these people psychologically and spiritually and for those who want to be a part of the Tijuana community, those who don’t want to return to their place of origin,” said Pauletti.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Born from “gunboat diplomacy,” the Panama Canal is under threat from US saber rattling once again.

More than 100 years after the construction of the engineering marvel that linked the Atlantic and Pacific oceans – and 25 years after the canal was returned to Panama by the US – the waterway faces renewed intimidation from an American president.

US President Donald Trump in his inaugural address on Monday vowed to wrest the canal back. “We have been treated very badly from this foolish gift that should have never been made and Panama’s promise to us been broken,” Trump said, claiming that Panama overcharges the US Navy to transit the canal.

“Above all China is operating the Panama Canal,” Trump also said, a frequent claim he has made without providing any evidence. “And we didn’t give it to China, we gave it to Panama and we are taking it back!”

Panamanian officials have scoffed at Trump’s latest claims that the country charges too much for ships to transit the canal or that China secretly has taken control of the waterway.

Still, his threats are not taken idly by Panamanians who consider the canal to be central to their national identity and depend on lucrative canal traffic. In 2024, the canal earned nearly $5 billion in total profits. According to a study released in December by IDB Invest, 23.6% of Panama’s annual income is generated from the canal and companies that provide services related to the canal’s operations.

Panama has also experienced several US military interventions over the years.

“All he [Trump] needs is to land ten thousand troops and that’s it,” said Ovidio Diaz-Espino, who was born in Panama and is the author of “How Wall Street Created a Nation: J.P. Morgan, Teddy Roosevelt, and the Panama Canal.” He added: “We don’t have an army.”

How the US imposed a canal on Panama in the first place

In 1903, Panama was a restive department of Colombia, with many Panamanians advocating openly for independence from a central government on the other side of the impassable Darien Gap jungle that they felt neglected them. Colombia, though, had little interest in letting go of the strategically located territory.

For generations, outsiders had considered the narrow isthmus to be the perfect spot for a trans-oceanic canal that would shorten the sea voyage by thousands of miles. Ships would no longer need to circumnavigate South America, braving the treacherous waters off Cape Horn. But the actual excavating of “the Big Ditch,” as it became known, was far more challenging than any undertaking previously attempted.

A French attempt to build a canal in the 1880s was met with disaster after scores of workers died from yellow fever and malaria amid allegations of financial mismanagement. The attempt, led by the famed developer of the Suez Canal Ferdinand de Lesseps, all but bankrupted France.

Failing to reach terms with Colombia to build a US canal, then US President Theodore Roosevelt sent gunships to Panama’s Atlantic and Pacific coasts to support calls for Panamanian independence. But celebrations in Panama after declaring independence were short-lived; public opinion in the new nation soured quickly over a treaty signed with the US that granted Americans open-ended use of the future canal.

Panamanians accused their envoy to the US, French engineer and soldier Philippe-Jean Bunau-Varilla, of betraying their interests to make a fortune from the deal he cut with the US. But dependent on the US to protect their freedom from Colombia, Panama’s hands were tied.

The US imported workers to build the canal from across the Caribbean. An ingenious system of locks designed by the US Army Corps of Engineers raised ships from ocean level to Gatun Lake, the largest man-made lake at the time, where they could cross the isthmus.

The final explosion that flooded the canal was triggered from the White House via telegraph in 1913 by then-President Woodrow Wilson. “Canal is opened by Wilson’s finger,” read the headline in next day’s New York Times.

The US-controlled canal quickly became a vital asset for American commerce and the US Navy.

Panama received a $10 million initial payment from the US for the territory followed by $250,000 each year. Many Panamanians resented that the canal that divided their country in half was off limits to them.

“It was colonialism. The country was divided in two and you couldn’t even go inside,” said author Diaz-Espino of the Canal Zone. “They had everything. They had golf courses, they had recreation centers and at the other side of the fence was Panama.”

Tensions steadily rose until January 1964 when riots broke out after demonstrators entered the off-limits Canal Zone and tried to raise the Panamanian flag there. Twenty-two Panamanian students and four US Marines died in the fighting that ensued.

For 13 years, US and Panamanian officials discussed a plan to return the canal to Panama during both Democrat and Republican administrations. Finally, in 1977, then-President Jimmy Carter reached an agreement with then-Panamanian strongman Omar Torrijos for the US and Panama to jointly administer the crucial waterway, with the canal being fully turned over to Panama at midnight on December 31, 1999.

“Fairness and not force should lie at the heart of our dealings with the nations of the world,” Carter said at the signing ceremony for the accords.

But the final agreement still gave the US the right to intervene militarily to keep the canal open – a condition that could potentially be exploited by Trump in an attempt to retake the canal by force but unlikely to meet legal scrutiny as the canal continues to see record traffic.

The lucrative Panama Canal

In 2007, Panama began work on the canal’s largest expansion in nearly a century, a new set of locks that would allow larger ships – more than one and a half times the size the ships that previously transited the waterway to travel through the canal. The new locks cost Panama more than $5 billion and went into operation in 2016. They also more than doubled the marine traffic the canal could handle.

The expanded canal has reaped billions of dollars for Panama and helped the country become a rare bastion of stability in Central America where other nations are beset by poverty and violent drug trafficking that fuel migration to the US.

And its success has been noticed. “Panama is doing so well with the canal, there are many workers, there is so much employment,” Trump said in 2011. “The US foolishly gave the canal for nothing.”

Panama officials have made clear they would not stand for any attempt to seize the lucrative waterway, which about 5% of all global maritime traffic passes through. “I fully reject the insinuating words by President Donald Trump at his inaugural address relating to Panama and its canal,” Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino said on X on Monday. “The canal is and will remain Panamanian and its administration will remain under Panamanian control with respect to its permanent neutrality.”

But the specter of another US intervention has alarm bells sounding from a country that depends on both its namesake waterway and on good relations with Washington.

“The Panama Canal is our oil, and this is as if you’re threatening to take oil from Saudi Arabia, to take away the oil wells,” said Diaz-Espino. “This would be devastating to the country. We’d be left with the debt and without the income.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

World leaders congratulated President Donald Trump on his inauguration Monday, with many urging stronger alliances or continued cooperation between their countries and the United States, in carefully crafted social media posts and statements.

Trump’s return to the White House portends a seismic shakeup in international relations, with the new president immediately ordering the US’ withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and World Health Organization, as world leaders brace for new tariffs on goods and the impact of Trump’s “America first” agenda.

Some populist leaders celebrated Trump’s return, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who called the US president a “dear friend,” and Hungary’s Victor Orbán who declared, “now it’s our turn to shine.”

But not all the messages were congratulatory.

Some leaders expressed their anger at remarks Trump made during his Inauguration Day speech, or with the controversial raft of executive actions he signed almost immediately after entering the Oval Office.

Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino rejected Trump’s promise that the US would be “taking back” the Panama Canal. The vital waterway in Central America was built by the US but is now controlled by Panama.

“The Canal is and will continue to be Panama’s,” Mulino reiterated in a statement. “There is no presence of any nation in the world that interferes with our administration,” he added, apparently referring to Trump’s claim that China is “operating” the canal.

Other regional neighbors were also critical of Trump.

Cuba condemned Trump’s decision to put the Communist-run island back on the US list of state sponsors of terrorism, with its president calling the move, “an act of arrogance and disregard for the truth.”

“This is not surprising. His goal is to continue strengthening the cruel economic war against Cuba for the purpose of domination,” Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel wrote on X.

Cuba’s Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez also issued a scathing response to the decision, saying Trump was “drunk with arrogance.”

But outgoing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau struck a more conciliatory tone, despite Trump’s recent jibes about making Canada the 51st US state and indication that he will impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico on February 1.

Trudeau congratulated Trump and said Canada looks forward to working with the new administration, “while protecting and defending the interests of Canadians.”

Wartime leaders

Trump repeatedly signaled his wish to end the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine during his campaign and major players in both conflicts have adjusted their positions accordingly in the months since his November election victory.

On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video statement that “the best days of our alliance are yet to come.” He also thanked Trump for his assistance in brokering Israel’s ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas.

“Your first term as President was filled with groundbreaking moments,” Netanyahu said. “I’m confident that we will complete the defeat of Iran’s terror axis and usher in a new era of peace and prosperity for our region.”

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed openness to rebuilding relations with the new US administration, saying he welcomed statements from Trump and his team “expressing a desire to restore direct contact with Russia.”

Trump on Monday said he plans to meet Putin once talks are set up, a process he said was already underway.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has been trying to win over Trump and convince him to continue US military assistance as Kyiv fends off Moscow’s invasion, said Trump’s inauguration was a day of “change” and “hope.”

He also praised Trump’s “peace through strength policy,” saying it provides an opportunity to achieve “a long-term and just peace.”

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said, “With President Trump back in office we will turbo-charge defense spending and production.” Trump previously said he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any NATO member country that doesn’t meet spending guidelines and would not offer such a country US protection.

Allies’ hopes

Several Asian leaders also took to social media to congratulate Trump, expressing hopes for continued alliances. US security and military assistance to countries in the Asia-Pacific has been a cornerstone of previous administrations’ foreign policy, which has centered around countering an increasingly assertive China.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said in a post on X that he looks “forward to collaborating with you to reinforce the enduring Japan-US partnership and jointly pursue our shared goal of a free and open Indo-Pacific.”

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te offered his “sincere congratulations” to Trump and Vice President JD Vance, saying “Taiwan looks forward to working with your administration to promote enduring freedom, peace and prosperity around the world.”

In Europe, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz congratulated Trump on X, saying, “For a long time, Germany and the US have been working together successfully promoting prosperity and freedom on both sides of the Atlantic. We will continue to do so for the wellbeing of our citizens.”

United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer said, “the special relationship between the UK and the US will continue to flourish for years to come.”

Starmer recently criticized those “spreading lies and misinformation” about child sex grooming gangs in the UK, responding to Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and Trump adviser, who had accused the prime minister of being “complicit in the rape of Britain” over historic child sex abuse in parts of England.

European Union leaders also looked to strengthen the transatlantic partnership with the US.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, “the EU looks forward to working closely with you to tackle global challenges,” while European Parliament President Roberta Metsola said in an address to the legislature that the future “will not be without its challenges.”

Middle Eastern endorsement

Leaders and diplomats in the Middle East also expressed hope for closer relations with the US.

Syria’s de facto leader, the former rebel chief Ahmed al-Sharaa, said, “We are confident that (Trump) is the leader to bring peace to the Middle East and restore stability to the region.”

Al-Sharaa, better known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, became the de facto head of Syria’s interim government after his Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), toppled longtime dictator Bashar al-Assad in December.

“We look forward to improving the relations between our two countries based on dialogue and understanding,” he said in a statement “on behalf of the New Administration of Syria.”

Saudi Arabia’s Ambassador to the US Reema Bandar Al-Saud posted photos from the inauguration in Washington on her X account, including of her meeting Trump.

“As our two nations celebrate 80 years of friendship, it was my honor to convey our leadership’s heartfelt congratulations on behalf of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,” she wrote.

“The relationship between our two countries is historic and we look forward to continuing our work together for the benefit of both our peoples, our region, and the world.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

For many of America’s 170 million TikTok users, US President Donald Trump’s move to delay a legal ban of the popular social media platform was cause for celebration.

But in China, where TikTok’s parent company is based, the reception has been less positive, largely because Trump has suggested he could require the company to give up a 50% stake to avert its shutdown.

The future of TikTok should be “decided by companies” in line with Chinese law, China’s Foreign Ministry said Monday ahead of Trump’s inauguration.

The US should “earnestly listen to the voice of reason” and “provide an open, fair, just and non-discriminatory business environment” for companies from all countries, spokesperson Mao Ning said when asked about the joint venture proposal.

Hours after his inauguration Monday, Trump issued an executive order delaying for 75 days the enforcement of a controversial law, which requires that TikTok be banned in the US unless it sells to a buyer from America or one of its allies.

The executive action followed a pledge from Trump on Sunday that he would delay enforcement. TikTok said that assurance allowed it to come back online after going dark for more than 12 hours over the weekend.

The delay will help the Trump administration “determine the appropriate course forward in an orderly way that protects national security while avoiding an abrupt shutdown of a communications platform used by millions of Americans,” the order said.

Trump has repeatedly suggested that he could be open to an American buyer purchasing half of the company and running it as a 50-50 joint venture with its current Chinese owner ByteDance.

A joint venture involving a US firm with a 50% stake in TikTok would soften the letter of the controversial law, though it’s unclear whether US lawmakers or TikTok, which denies that it poses a national security risk to Americans, would accept it.

Backlash in China

On Chinese social media, where TikTok’s fate has appeared as one among many efforts from the US to stymy Beijing’s technical prowess, Trump’s suggestions were met with distain.

Tens of millions of users on the social media platform Weibo flocked to hashtags related to the potential 50-50 ownership, with many decrying the US government’s “robbery.”

“Apple and Tesla should also give up 50% of their shares to Chinese companies then,” one comment with thousands of likes said.

“We need 50% control of Nvidia then!” said another commentator, referring to the US chipmaker.

“China will not let ByteDance kneel down,” another comment read, referring to TikTok’s parent company. “Robbery does not change its nature just because it changes from 100% to 50%,” the comment added.

Media giant ByteDance does not operate TikTok in China, but its sister app Douyin is popular domestically.

Meanwhile, an editorial in the state-run nationalist tabloid Global Times on Tuesday looked at the handling of the US ban and concluded that “the trap some Americans set for TikTok has ensnared them instead.”

“The political manipulation of an overstretched concept of security against TikTok has not only caused fluctuations in the emotions of the American public, but has also led to ‘deep personal pain’ for some who rely on it for their livelihood,” the editorial read.

TikTok and tariffs

Despite the uncertainty around the fate of TikTok, both the US and China have appeared to show their interest in dialogue as the new administration gets underway.

In a phone call with Trump on Friday, Chinese leader Xi Jinping called for a “new starting point” in US-China relations and stressed their “extensive common interests.” Trump noted that the call included discussion of TikTok.

Xi also dispatched Chinese Vice President Han Zheng to Trump’s inauguration, the seniormost official Beijing has ever sent to an American presidential inauguration.

Trump’s executive order on TikTok stands as one of a range of signals from the newly sworn-in president that he is willing to negotiate with Beijing, despite campaigning on a hardline stance on the country, the US’s key geopolitical rival.

Trump on Monday also refrained from slapping tariffs on Chinese goods, something observers suggested could be on his day one agenda. While on the campaign trial, Trump threatened upwards of 60% tariffs on Chinese imports into the US, and Beijing has been braced for sharper economic competition with the US under his term.

When asked about those tariffs Monday, Trump said duties he imposed as president the first time around were still in place. He did not name any timeline within which when he might levy more duties, despite saying tariffs against Mexican and Canadian goods were likely to go into place February 1.

But Trump also suggested tariffs could be linked to TikTok’s fate – raising questions about the kind of hard bargaining the president may have in mind in the months ahead.

In remarks in the Oval Office Monday, Trump posited levying as much as 100% tariffs on China if Beijing didn’t approve a potential future agreement.

“If we wanted to make a deal with TikTok and it was a good deal and China wouldn’t approve it … I think ultimately, they’d approve it because we’d put tariffs on China, maybe,” he said, while suggesting this wasn’t the only approach he could take.

Beijing has previously suggested it has the legal authority to block any deal involving TikTok, because a sale or divestiture would involve “exporting technology” – an apparent reference to the potential sale of the app’s proprietary algorithm.

Trump ally and Tesla CEO Elon Musk also joined the fray discussing the future of TikTok by alluding to the “need for change” in comments Sunday on X, the social media platform he owns. According to Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, Chinese officials are discussing a possible option that involves selling at least a portion of the US version of the app to Musk’s X.

Musk pointed out how X is not available in China. Most major American-owned tech platforms are blocked in the country due to Beijing’s stringent controls on speech and information under the so-called Great Firewall.

“I have been against a TikTok ban for a long time, because it goes against freedom of speech,” Musk wrote. “That said, the current situation where TikTok is allowed to operate in America, but 𝕏 is not allowed to operate in China is unbalanced. Something needs to change.”

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Taipei, Taiwan (AP) — An earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of six struck southern Taiwan early Tuesday, according to the US Geological Survey, leaving 15 people with minor injuries.

The quake hit at 12:17 a.m. local time, with its epicenter 12 kilometers (7 miles) north of Yujing at a preliminary depth of 10 kilometers (6 miles), USGS said. Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration recorded a magnitude of 6.4.

There were no immediate reports of deaths from the quake, though rescuers were still assessing damage.

Taiwan’s fire department said 15 people were sent to the hospital for minor injuries. Among them were six people, including one child, who were rescued from a collapsed house in Nanxi District, Tainan city. The Zhuwei bridge on a provincial highway was reported to be damaged.

Last April, a magnitude 7.4 quake hit the island’s mountainous eastern coast of Hualien, killing at least 13 people and injuring more than 1,000 others. The strongest earthquake in 25 years was followed by hundreds of aftershocks.

Taiwan lies along the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” the line of seismic faults encircling the Pacific Ocean where most of the world’s earthquakes occur.

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