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Rail accident kills 12 in western India after passengers jump onto tracks over fire alert

2 Mins Read

At least 12 train passengers were killed in western India Wednesday after being struck by another train on an adjacent track after they jumped from their coaches in panic to escape a rumored fire incident, the Press Trust of India reported.

At least six other people were injured, the news agency cited police officer Dattatraya Karale as saying.

The accident occurred in Jalgaon, one of the largest cities in Maharashtra, near the Pardhade railroad station, 410 kilometers (255 miles) northeast of Mumbai, India’s financial capital.

PTI said the victims jumped off the Pushpak Express train, which had stopped after some passengers pulled an emergency chain. Those who disembarked were hit by another express train on the adjacent railroad track, PTI quoted railway spokesman Swapnil Nila as saying.

“Our preliminary information is that there were sparks inside one of the coaches of the Pushpak Express due to either a ‘hot axle’ or ‘brake-binding’ (jamming), and some passengers panicked. They pulled the chain, and some of them jumped down on the tracks. At the same time, Karnataka Express was passing on the adjoining track,” a senior railway official told PTI.

Despite government efforts to improve rail safety, hundred of accidents occur every year on India’s railways, which is the largest train network under one management in the world.

In 2023, two passenger trains collided after derailing in eastern India, killing more than 280 people and injuring hundreds in one of the country’s deadliest rail crashes in decades.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is focusing on the modernization of the British colonial-era railroad network in India, which has become the world’s most populous country with 1.42 billion people.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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China’s navy commissions new-generation frigate as competition rises with US and others

3 Mins Read

China’s navy has commissioned a new-generation frigate as competition rises with the US and other regional powers, saying the ship will “play a vital role in enhancing the overall combat effectiveness” of its forces.

China already has the world’s largest navy in terms of number of hulls, although its technology is sometimes seen as lagging. Its largest competitor, the US, has warned its Navy could be outnumbered and has called for a building program as well as reforms to put damaged ships into action sooner.

China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy operates mainly in waters off the Chinese east coast and in the huge and strategically crucial South China Sea, which China claims almost in its entirety. A key mission also remains backing up the army in any attack on Taiwan, the self-governing island democracy about 160 kilometers (100 miles) off the Chinese coast that Beijing has vowed to annex by force if necessary.

The first Type 054B frigate, christened the Luohe, was commissioned Wednesday in Qingdao, a port city in northern China where the PLAN’s northern fleet is based.

The ship has a displacement of approximately 5,000 tons and includes stealth technology, combat command systems and firepower integration, “significantly enhancing overall performance,” the navy said.

“With strong capabilities for comprehensive combat operations and diverse military missions, the warship will play a vital role in enhancing the overall combat effectiveness of naval task forces,” it added.

The Luohe’s armaments include a variety of machine guns for close combat and anti-air and anti-ship missiles, according to defense publications, some of which say the ship could become the backbone of the Chinese navy.

The statement said nothing about future 054Bs, but at least two more are believed to have been launched and another is under construction. China has around 234 warships compared to the US Navy’s 219, including around 50 frigates and the same number of destroyers. China has two operating aircraft carriers and another undergoing sea trials, along with a massive and powerful coast guard.

Recent wargames have shown China would lose many more vessels in a simulated clash with the US, but would be able to absorb the losses and continue fighting.

The PLAN has also sent ships further abroad including the Mediterranean Sea and the Caribbean in its attempts to use its navy as an extension of its growing economic and diplomatic clout. PLAN and Chinese coast guard ships have also patrolled in the East China Sea, where China claims a group of uninhabited islands controlled by Japan. While planes and ships from both sides have come into contact, no shots have been fired during such incidents.

The US and other nations have deliberately sailed close to islands, some of them human-made, to challenge China’s claim to them. Beijing has ignored a UN-backed court’s ruling that threw out most of China’s territorial claims.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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Coral bleaching on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef reaches ‘catastrophic’ levels, study finds

4 Mins Read

Record ocean heat has taken a devastating toll on one of the world’s greatest natural wonders, with coral bleaching on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef reaching “catastrophic” levels, a new study has found.

More than 50% of affected corals monitored near an island in the reef’s south were killed last year during the most “severe and widespread bleaching” to ever hit the area, according to a team of Australian scientists.

In 2024, the reef experienced its worst summer on record. Soaring ocean temperatures smashed records, causing the reef’s seventh mass bleaching event. Corals are bleached white when marine heat waves put corals under stress, causing them to expel algae from their tissue, draining their color.

The culprit is the burning of planet-heating fossil fuels, which is driving up global temperatures. Coral damage was also accelerated last year by the El Niño weather pattern, which heats ocean temperatures in this part of the world.

Scientists from the University of Sydney tracked 462 coral colonies at the reef’s One Tree Island over the course of five months last year, beginning at the heat wave’s peak in early February.

By May, 370 of those colonies were bleached and, by July, 52% of the bleached corals were dead, according to the peer-reviewed study published in Limnology and Oceanography Letters.

Some coral species monitored had a mortality rate of 95%, with researchers observing the start of “colony collapse” where the dead skeleton detaches from the reef and turns to rubble.

Another species, the Goniopora, became infected by black band disease, which invades the coral’s tissue and can kill it.

“Our findings underscore the urgent need for action to protect coral reefs, which are not only biodiversity hotspots but also crucial for food security and coastal protection,” said lead author Maria Byrne, from the School of Life and Environmental Sciences at the university.

Byrne said the area studied is in a protected part of the reef, far from the coast and free from mining activities and tourism.

But the reef, “despite its protected status, was not immune to the extreme heat stress that triggered this catastrophic bleaching event,” she said.

Covering nearly 133,000 square miles (345,000 square kilometers), the Great Barrier Reef is the world’s largest coral reef, home to more than 1,500 species of fish and 411 species of hard corals. It contributes billions of dollars to the Australian economy each year, mainly through tourism, and is promoted heavily to foreign visitors as one of the country’s – and the world’s – greatest natural wonders.

The authors said mass bleaching is becoming “a biennial event” and as such “reinforces the need for urgent global action now to adhere to ambitious climate and reduced emissions targets.”

The bleaching hit areas of the reef not impacted before, and disease and death were found in coral species considered resilient, the study found.

“Seeing the impacts on a reef that has largely avoided mass bleaching until now is devastating,” said Shawna Foo, a marine scientist and co-author of the study. “The high rates of mortality and disease, particularly in such a remote and pristine area, highlight the severity of the situation.”

Severe mass bleaching at the Great Barrier Reef had previously been observed in 1998, 2002, 2016, 2017, 2020 and 2022.

The 2022 bleaching was the first during a La Niña event, El Niño’s counterpart, which tends to have a cooling influence – raising serious concerns about the reef’s outlook.

The authors said their research was a “wake-up call for policymakers and conservationists” as its implications extend beyond ecology and conservation to communities that depend on the reef for fishing, tourism and coastal protection.

“The resilience of coral reefs is being tested like never before, and we must prioritize strategies that enhance their ability to withstand climate change,” said Ana Vila Concejo, co-author of the study from the university’s School of Geosciences.

“Our findings underscore the need for immediate and effective management interventions to safeguard these ecosystems.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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Bank of America CEO says financial industry will jump into crypto payments if regulators allow it

2 Mins Read

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said Tuesday that the U.S. banking industry will embrace cryptocurrencies for payments if regulators allow it.

The head of the second largest U.S. bank by assets was asked by CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin about how the industry’s approach to crypto could change given President Donald Trump’s enthusiasm for digital currencies.

“If the rules come in and make it a real thing that you can actually do business with, you’ll find that the banking system will come in hard on the transactional side of it,” Moynihan said in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

American banks have largely avoided letting customers use crypto for retail transactions, although their institutional trading and wealth management arms have participated in markets for bitcoin ETFs. Leaders in the industry, including JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, have lambasted bitcoin as a currency for criminals and fraudsters.

“If you go down the street here and you go in and buy lunch, right, if you can pay with Visa, Mastercard, a debit card, Apple Pay, etc, this would just be another form of payment,” Moynihan explained. “We have hundreds of patents on blockchain already, we know how to enter the field.”

The veteran Bank of America CEO didn’t address the idea of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin as an investment or store of value, saying it is “really a separate question.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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‘Moana 2’ tops $1 billion, extending Disney’s box office domination

2 Mins Read

The Walt Disney Company’s box office domination continued over the holiday weekend.

“Moana 2” topped $1 billion during the Martin Luther King Jr. Day weekend, becoming the studio’s third 2024 release to reach the coveted benchmark after Marvel Studios’ “Deadpool and Wolverine” and Pixar’s “Inside Out 2.” No other Hollywood studio had a film cross $1 billion last year.

“Moana 2” snared $442.8 million at the domestic box office and $567.1 million in international markets, the company posted over the weekend. It is the fourth film from the Walt Disney Animation arm to surpass $1 billion in ticket sales alongside “Frozen,” “Frozen II” and “Zootopia.”

This feat is another feather in the cap for Disney, which had struggled in the years after the pandemic to gain tractions with its animated releases. Much of the company’s difficulties stemmed, in part, from decisions to debut a handful of animated features directly on its streaming service Disney+. This trained parents to look for new content at home even after theatrical closures ended and films returned to cinemas.

“Inside Out 2” not only marked a return to form for Disney, but it helped jumpstart the overall domestic box office in June. It snared more than $650 million domestically and became the first film since Warner Bros′ “Barbie” to top $1 billion at the global box office.

It also marked the first time a Pixar or Walt Disney Animation film generated more than $480 million at the global box office since 2019. “Inside Out 2″ ultimately became the highest-grossing film of 2024.

“Deadpool and Wolverine,” “Inside Out 2″ and “Moana 2,” along with a handful of other theatrical releases, helped Disney reach more than $2.2 billion at the domestic box office last year, accounting for about 25% of the industry’s total haul, according to data from Comscore.

With “Moana 2” crossing the billion-dollar mark, Disney now has 32 billion-dollar movies — including three films it acquired when it bought Fox in 2019, according to the company. For context, there have only been 56 films that have topped $1 billion at the global box office, meaning Disney is responsible for nearly 60% of the highest-grossing films in cinematic history.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Goldman Sachs rolls out an AI assistant for its employees as artificial intelligence sweeps Wall Street

5 Mins Read

Goldman Sachs is rolling out a generative AI assistant to its bankers, traders and asset managers, the first stage in the evolution of a program that will eventually take on the traits of a seasoned Goldman employee, according to Chief Information Officer Marco Argenti.

The bank has released a program called GS AI assistant to about 10,000 employees so far, with the goal that all the company’s knowledge workers will have it this year, Argenti told CNBC in an exclusive interview. It will initially help with tasks including summarizing or proofreading emails or translating code from one language to another.

“Think about all the tasks that you might want to complete with regards to a variety of use cases for all those professions that can be now at your fingertips,” Argenti said. The Goldman assistant is a “very simple interface that allows you to have access to the latest and greatest models.”

Goldman’s move means that, along with JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, the world’s top three investment banks have aggressively released generative AI tools to their workforce, a remarkable development since ChatGPT went viral about two years ago.

Wall Street has embraced generative artificial intelligence faster than any other disruptive technology in recent years, experts say, because of how adept large language models are in replicating aspects of human cognition.

Today it can respond to queries, write emails and summarize lengthy documents, but expectations are high that future versions will exhibit so-called agentic abilities, meaning they can perform multistep tasks with little human intervention.

In speaking with CNBC about his vision for artificial intelligence at the firm, Argenti — who joined from Amazon in 2019 — repeatedly likened the AI program to a new employee that will absorb Goldman culture over the coming years.

Initially, the tool will mostly produce answers based on Goldman data that has been fed into AI models from OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini and Meta’s Llama, depending on the task, said Argenti. The bank is also looking at models from companies including Anthropic, Mistral and Cohere, he added.

“The AI assistant becomes really like talking to another GS employee,” Argenti said.

“As we progress, the second step is when you’re starting to have this agentic behavior, that is, ‘I’m completing a task on behalf of a Goldman employee, and I need to take a set of steps,’” he said. “That’s where the model is going to start to do things like a Goldman employee, not only say things like a Goldman employee.”

This helps explain why companies have forbid employees from using ChatGPT for work, instead moving to create their own platforms to tap the technology. It allows firms to not only keep their information secure, but to also craft AI platforms that increasingly resemble the best examples of their own workforce.

“For the AI to have a very specific identity that reflects the tenets, the values, the knowledge and the way of thinking of the firm is extremely important,” Argenti said.

In practice, that means that just as an experienced Goldman employee would know to double-check their work with multiple data sources or use a specific algorithm for a calculation, the AI will absorb those lessons, he said.

But Argenti says he is most excited by the prospect of what comes later, in perhaps three to five years, as AI models increasingly blur the lines between human and machine thinking.

This stage of AI at Goldman would have the model “actually reason more and become more like the way a Goldman employee would think,” he said.

So instead of being handed a run book, which is tech industry parlance for a set of step-by-step instructions for completing tasks or responding to incidents, the AI would be able to generate detailed plans “in the way that an experienced Goldman employee would do,” Argenti said.

The prospects of that future — and the fact that Wall Street’s workers are helping train a technology that may make some roles obsolete, while augmenting other jobs and creating new roles altogether — may send a fresh wave of anxiety through employee ranks.

Like at Goldman, other major investment banks are on target to give generative AI tools to their entire workforces in the coming months.

More than 200,000 JPMorgan employees currently have access to in-house generative AI tools, according to a person with knowledge of that bank who declined to be identified speaking about internal matters. Roughly 40,000 Morgan Stanley employees had access to it as of late last year, the bank said in October.

Finance and technology are seen as among the industries where employees are most prone to upheaval because of generative AI, allowing companies to potentially generate billions of dollars in additional profits. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg told podcaster Joe Rogan earlier this month that its AI will be capable of writing code as well as mid-level software engineers this year.

Global investment banks may shed as many as 200,000 jobs in the next three to five years as the companies implement AI, according to a report from Bloomberg’s research arm. The report, based on a survey of tech executives at major banks, said that support and operations roles known as the back and middle office were most at risk.

At Goldman, however, the official stance is that AI will empower employees to do more, not necessarily result in the need for fewer humans.

“The importance of having a phenomenal human workforce is actually going to be amplified,” Argenti said.

“In my opinion, it always boils down to people,” he said. “People are going to make a difference, because people are going to be the ones that actually evolve the AI, educate the AI, empower the AI, and then take action.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Netflix shares soar as company reports surging revenue, tops 300 million subscribers

3 Mins Read

Shares of Netflix soared more than 13% Tuesday after the company posted fourth-quarter results that beat on the top and bottom lines.

The company surpassed 300 million paid memberships during the quarter, adding a record 19 million subscribers. Netflix said the growth was driven by its content slate, improved product and typical fourth-quarter seasonality.

The company also shared that including “extra member accounts,” its global audience is estimated to be exceed 700 million.

Here’s how Netflix performed for its most recent quarter, ended Dec. 31, compared with Wall Street estimates:

Earnings per share: $4.27 vs. $4.20, according to LSEG

Revenue: $10.25 billion vs. $10.11 billion, according to LSEG

Paid memberships: 301.63 million vs. 290.9 million, according to StreetAccount

Net income for the period was $1.87 billion, or $4.27 per share, up from $938 million, or $2.11 per share, during the same quarter a year earlier.

Revenue in the fourth quarter jumped 16% year-over-year, reaching $10.25 billion, higher than the $10.11 billion Wall Street had predicted.

For the full year 2025, Netflix raised its revenue expectations to a range of $43.5 billion to $44.5 billion, around $500 million higher than its previous forecast to reflects improved business fundamentals and the expected carryover benefit of its stronger-than-expected fourth quarter performance.

The fourth quarter was the last for which Netflix will report quarterly paid subscriber counts, as previously announced. Instead, it will start reporting a bi-annual “engagement report” alongside its second- and fourth-quarter releases.

The streamer on Tuesday touted the success of its fourth-quarter slate, which included the release of season 2 of the hit series “Squid Game” as well as live sporting events like the record-breaking Jake Paul and Mike Tyson boxing match and National Football League games on Christmas Day.

This year, the company said it plans to improve its core business with more series and films, enhance its product experience and continue to grow its ads business. Netflix is expected to delve further into the live event space and games, as well.

The company also has the return of “Strangers Things” and “Wednesday,” two of its biggest hits, ahead for 2025. Additionally, the streamer will release a collection of new films from top directors and actors including Daniel Craig and Rian Johnson’s third “Knives Out” film, a Russo Brothers project called “The Electric State” starring Millie Bobby Brown, “Happy Gilmore 2” with Adam Sandler and a new take on Frankenstein from Guillermo del Toro.

“We’re fortunate that we don’t have distractions like managing declining linear networks and, with our focus and continued investment, we have good and improving product/market fit around the world,” the company said in its earnings report Tuesday.

Netflix also announced it would raise prices on some streaming tiers between $1 and $2 per month.

Netflix’s cheaper, ad-supported tiers accounted for more than 55% of sign-ups in countries where the option is offered, the company said. Netflix also noted that memberships on its ad-supported plans grew around 30% quarter-over-quarter.

“We’re on track to reach sufficient scale for ads members in all of our ads countries in 2025,” the company said. “A top priority in 2025 is to improve our offering for advertisers so that we can substantially grow our advertising.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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With Trump digital coins, billions of dollars — and crypto’s credibility — are at stake

6 Mins Read

The creation of billions of dollars of digital wealth for the Trump Organization started with a social media post Friday. 

At 9:44 p.m. ET, the then-president-elect announced the creation of a new digital token: $TRUMP.    

“My NEW Official Trump Meme is HERE! It’s time to celebrate everything we stand for: WINNING!” Donald Trump’s X account posted. “Join my very special Trump Community. GET YOUR $TRUMP NOW. Go to http://gettrumpmemes.com — Have Fun!”

The announcement came with little fanfare. But what would ensue in the coming days — including wild price swings and Melania Trump’s own digital token — would roil the crypto community, including some Trump supporters, just as he was set to return to the Oval Office.

The $TRUMP and $MELANIA tokens, as they’re referred to on social media, belong to the crypto category known as memecoins — digital assets that use blockchain technology similar to bitcoin. 

Because there is no asset like underlying cash flows backing memecoins like $TRUMP and $MELANIA, anyone who owns them will only make money if they sell them at a higher price than at which they bought them. 

That includes the coin creators — and Trump and his family — themselves. 

Though long a part of the crypto universe, memecoins have in recent months enjoyed a resurgence after Trump emerged victorious in November and promised to embrace blockchain technology and crypto markets. 

In the case of $TRUMP and $MELANIA, the coins were launched on Solana, a blockchain that collects fees to process transactions and is known for faster throughput, meaning it is less prone to seizing up when transaction volumes are high. It is not clear who knew about their launch before it occurred aside from the coins’ developers and the Trump Organization. 

The slew of recent memecoin launches have triggered fresh skepticism and warnings about scams due to the freewheeling nature of memecoins. Because they are not formal investment vehicles, they are almost entirely unregulated, and anybody can start one under any name at any time, often for free. Platforms like CoinMarketCap that track digital tokens showed dozens of duplicate TRUMP coins. 

Bloomberg News summarized memecoin sales as “the crystallization of ‘greater fool’ investing, of an asset that’s only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it at a given moment in time.”

“I’m not sure people quite grasp how much of the crypto world is reacting to the Trump memecoin launches,” Molly White, a software engineer and cryptocurrency chronicler, posted on X alongside screenshots from reactions that ranged from frustration to anger.

White later told NBC News that the launch of the coins seemed to dash hopes from some that Trump would help further legitimize the crypto industry.

“There’s now a fear that people who are not super familiar with this industry will see it as a cash grab and not see all the good uses of crypto that exist,” she said. “They worry this will give crypto a bad name.”

Part of that frustration centered on Trump’s recent emergence as a champion for all things crypto. During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump made clear his support for crypto, speaking at the annual Bitcoin Conference and pledging to consider creating a “strategic bitcoin reserve” that would see the U.S. purchase billions’ worth of the cryptocurrency in a bid to encourage price support and adoption. Trump has also launched a line of NFTs, and his family launched a crypto banking platform last year. 

And Trump’s memecoin looked poised to be a major success, at least at first. The price of $TRUMP took off almost immediately, and by Saturday morning a single coin was trading at $75 — a 650% rise, at least, from its Friday launch price. Crypto enthusiasts who track transactions — many blockchains, including the one used by $TRUMP, are public-facing — reported some holders who had bought in early holding millions of dollars’ worth of the token. 

A Trump transition team spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment. 

The $TRUMP surge suddenly reversed when another coin came on the scene — from Trump’s own spouse.

On Sunday afternoon, Melania Trump’s X account posted that her $MELANIA memecoin was live. Donald Trump’s X account reposted that message.

The price of $TRUMP immediately plunged upon $MELANIA’s appearance, with some suggesting demand for one would eat into interest in the other.

“$MELANIA coin is being viewed as a competitor against $TRUMP coin,” market commentary group The Kobeissi Letter wrote on X. “This has resulted in a sharp drop in demand for $TRUMP.”  

Later Sunday, a $BARRON coin also started to trade, further adding to the market concerns. However, $BARRON’s connection, if any, to Trump’s youngest son, Barron, or the Trump family was not clear. No official Trump social media accounts have posted about it.

As the price of $TRUMP began falling, backlash ensued. 

“Dear @realDonaldTrump : Please fire whoever recommended going forward with the Melania launch today,” Ryan Selkis, a longtime crypto advocate and political conservative, wrote on X on Sunday as the price of $TRUMP began to fall. “1. They don’t know what they’re doing. 2. They cost you a lot of $ and goodwill. 3. They don’t have your interests in mind.”

By Tuesday, the price of $TRUMP had not recovered from the decline. Still, shortly after Trump’s swearing-in, the combined holdings among the Trump- and Melania-related corporations that launched the coins were worth tens of billions, at least on paper, according to crypto news website CoinDesk — and possibly worth more. 

Because all holders’ wallets, including those of Trump and the coin’s creators, are visible on the blockchain, any transactions they’re involved in will be closely watched. And a large sell-off from those wallets would likely trigger a major price fall, according to Ari Redbord, head of legal and government affairs at TRM Labs, a firm that monitors crypto projects.

But Redbord said Trump’s celebrity adds a factor that’s worth watching.

“Obviously Trump, because of who he is, elevates a memecoin launch like nothing we’ve ever seen before,” he said. 

Trump has released a voluntary ethics document designed to limit private financial interests from shaping his official policy agenda.  

But the president’s involvement in the crypto project also raises questions over potential use by illicit actors or foreign governments, Redbord said. 

Consumers need to realize that there are “far fewer” protections with memecoins than traditional stocks, he said.

“It’s highly volatile,’ Redbord added, saying ‘consumers really need to understand what they’re investing in, because you’re going to lose big and you could potentially win big.”

Mark Cuban, a technology investor and ardent Trump critic who has also been involved in crypto, warned on X that the Trumps’ direct foray into the industry would usher in a new era of fraudulent activity, with unsavvy investors the victims.

“Hello every scam targeted at everyone and anyone who has no clue about crypto,” Cuban said on X on Monday about the coins. “Good bye whatever hope the crypto industry had of legitimizing itself.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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How the S&P 500 Reaches 6500 By March 2025

4 Mins Read

So far, this has been a fairly entertaining start to the new year! The S&P 500 started off with a bounce to 6050, pushed briefly below our line-in-the-sand level of 5850, and then finished this week with a retest of 6000. While the VIX remains fairly low relative to historical levels, it feels as if our “emotional volatility” remains pretty elevated!

In recent interviews for !

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

  1. Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.
  2. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop me a comment and let me know your vote!
  3. Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most optimistic scenario, with the QQQ achieving a new all-time high over the next six to eight weeks.

Option 1: The Very Bullish Scenario

What if the S&P 500 resumes the uptrend phase from September through November of 2024? The very bullish scenario would mean the SPX pushes above the previous all-time high at 6100 and does not look back. Trump takes off and, instead of shocking the market with fears of inflation, his new policy decisions represent a more measured approach to tariffs. The Magnificent 7 names resume their leadership role, earnings season is a blowout blast of bullishness, and the S&P 500 hits 6500 before February 1st.

Dave’s Vote: 10%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

Perhaps the Magnificent 7 stocks don’t return to new all-time highs, but continue to remain rangebound over the next month. Value sectors like financials and industrials take on a leadership role, and small caps finally begin to outperform their large cap cousins. Trump’s early policy decisions still feel inflationary, and as a result, investors are hesitant to take on more risk until we get more clarity.

Dave’s vote: 30%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

What if last week was a countertrend move higher, often known as a “dead cat bounce”, and over the next few weeks we see another down leg for the S&P 500? There are notable breakouts in the value sectors, but the mega-cap growth trade still doesn’t take off. Inflation fears increase as the new president takes office, and investors hang on every economic release for signs of optimism. The mildly bearish scenario would mean a retest of the January swing low around 5800, and we begin the month of March wondering whether 5800 will hold this time around.

Dave’s vote: 50%

Option 4: The Super Bearish Scenario

We always have to consider the doomsday scenario, where conditions deteriorate much more quickly than expected. Earnings season is a bust, Trump’s new administration lights up tariffs, and inflationary fears lead to low confidence in the Fed’s ability to take decisive action. The S&P 500 pushes down to the 200-day moving average, and after a brief bounce, drops down to around 5500 by the end of February.

Dave’s vote: 10%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios? Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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What is the World Health Organization and why does Trump want to leave it?

6 Mins Read

“Ooh, that’s a big one,” Donald Trump said Monday as he signed an executive order – one of dozens during his first hours as president – to withdraw the United States from the World Health Organization.

What lies behind the move, and what could the impact be? WHO, the United Nations health agency that helps protect the health and security of the world’s people, receives about a fifth of its budget from the US.

Trump has blasted WHO as “corrupt” and accused it of ripping America off, and millions of Americans who voted for him are increasingly skeptical of the value of such international structures. But experts have warned that the withdrawal of WHO’s most influential member could harm global health.

In a statement Tuesday, the organization said it regretted the US decision, noting that it had, “over the past 7 years implemented the largest set of reforms in its history, to transform our accountability, cost-effectiveness, and impact in countries.”

The US withdrawal is the “most momentous” of all the executive orders signed Monday, said Lawrence Gostin, a public health law professor at Georgetown University, warning it “could be sowing the seeds for the next pandemic.”

Here’s how Trump’s decision could affect WHO and global health more widely.

What does WHO do?

WHO is one of several global institutions that emerged from the wreckage of World War II. After the world was torn apart by nationalism and conflict, countries agreed to sacrifice some aspects of their sovereignty for the common good.

The agency was founded in 1948 in an attempt to protect the world’s health. Its constitution, signed by all UN members at the time, warned that “unequal development” in the health systems of different countries was a “common danger.” The organization’s objective is “the attainment by all peoples of the highest possible level of health.”

Thomas Parran, then the US surgeon general, said WHO was more than a health agency, but a “powerful instrument forged for peace” that would “contribute to the harmony of human relations.”

Today, the agency works in more than 150 locations around the world, leads efforts to expand universal health coverage and directs the international response to health emergencies, from yellow fever to cholera and Ebola.

The agency has, however, been criticized for being inefficient, opaque, overly reliant on private donors and hamstrung by political concerns.

What has it achieved?

WHO’s most notable achievement was the eradication of smallpox, which marked a rare instance of cooperation between the US and the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

In 1967, the organization set the ambitious target of wiping out the disease in a decade. The last known case was in Somalia in 1977. By 1980, WHO could declare smallpox eradicated – the only infectious disease to achieve this distinction.

Because the organization is so large, its effects are often “diffuse,” said Francois Balloux, director of the Genetics Institute at University College London (UCL). He pointed to the near-universal upward trend in life expectancy since WHO’s founding as an achievement for which the agency also deserves credit.

More recently, it has led responses to disease outbreaks like Ebola in West Africa, which killed at least 11,000 of the more than 28,000 people infected from 2014-2016. Working with local authorities, WHO conducted research on the safety of a newly developed vaccine – which achieved near-perfect efficacy and helped stem the spread of the disease.

Why does Trump want to withdraw?

Trump first tried to exit WHO during his first term in 2020, accusing the organization of “severely mismanaging and covering up” the spread of Covid-19.

Trump has long said he believes the coronavirus originated in a laboratory in Wuhan, China, which Beijing has sought to obscure. Notably, WHO has shared some of Trump’s concerns and in December – five years since the first case of Covid-19 was detected – called for China to be more transparent to help the world understand how the pandemic began.

During his latest election campaign, Trump was more brazen, calling the organization “nothing more than a corrupt globalist scam” which “disgracefully covered the tracks of the Chinese Communist Party.”

By focusing on the origins of Covid-19, Trump has understated the role that WHO – spearheaded by the US – played in combating the virus once it began to spread, experts say.

Alan Bernstein, director of the Global Health initiative at the University of Oxford, said WHO was crucial in convincing China to release the genetic sequence early in 2020, which was the basis of the vaccines developed in the US.

There is also a financial aspect to Trump’s animosity. The president has previously said that the US contributes around $500 million a year to WHO, compared to China’s $40 million, despite its far larger population.

As he signed Monday’s executive order, Trump was asked whether, as president during Covid-19, he appreciated the importance of agencies like WHO.

“I do, but not when you’re being ripped off like we are,” he replied.

This worldview misses the benefits of cooperation, said Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh, Scotland.

What happens next?

It takes a year to withdraw fully from the agency – which is why Joe Biden was able to halt the US exit four years ago, in one of the first acts of his presidency.

But there are signs that the departure could be swifter this time. Monday’s executive order called on the secretary of state and director of the Office of Management and Budget to pause funding “with all practicable speed.”

Perhaps anticipating Trump’s exit, WHO launched a request earlier this month for $1.5 billion in funding to address 42 ongoing health emergencies. The organization declined to make that connection on a call with reporters on Friday, just days before Trump took office.

Tedros said Tuesday that he “regrets” Trump’s decision, stressing that the US also gains from the agency to which it contributes.

“For over seven decades, WHO and the USA have saved countless lives and protected Americans and all people from health threats. Together, we ended smallpox, and together we have brought polio to the brink of eradication. American institutions have contributed to and benefited from membership in WHO,” Tedros said.

Balloux, of UCL, said the decision could delay the eradication of polio and hamper efforts to combat tuberculosis and HIV.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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