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If one word could characterize this week’s stock market price action, it would be “sideways.” At least it’s better than trending lower.

The stock market seemed comfortable with the Federal Reserve’s message on Wednesday, but lost that upside momentum and wasn’t able to follow through on the upside move until the last 30 minutes of Friday’s trading.

The Dow ($INDU), S&P 500 ($SPX), and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) managed to eke out gains, ending the week on a slightly optimistic note.

On the bright side, the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) pulled back from its March 10 level. Even quadruple witching Friday—when contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single-stock futures all expire—didn’t see volatility spike too high. That said, the VIX is still elevated, relatively speaking, so we’re not exactly in complacent territory.

Quarterly earnings reports from Nike, Inc. (NKE), FedEx Corp. (FDX), and Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) didn’t help. The most troubling of the three is FDX. FedEx’s performance indicates the overall health of the U.S. economy. Tariffs, declining consumer confidence, and uncertainty about economic growth could be headwinds, for FedEx and other companies.

The weekly chart of FDX below shows the stock is trading below its 150-week exponential moving average (EMA) with its 40-week EMA trending lower. FDX has been underperforming the Industrials Select Sector SPDR (XLI) since early September 2024.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF FEDEX STOCK. FDX is trading below its 150-week EMA and underperforming the Industrial sector. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Be sure to save this chart to your ChartLists. It acts like a monitor to check the U.S. economy’s pulse.

Precious Metals Shine

But it’s not all negative. Gold and silver prices have trended higher with gold hitting an all-time high this week. The daily six-month chart of gold futures ($GOLD) below shows that gold prices are trading above $3,000 per ounce.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES. Gold prices have rallied most of the year and could keep rising if investors invest in safe-haven assets such as gold. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

In addition to trading above its 50- and 200-day SMAs, gold is outperforming the S&P 500. A rise in gold prices indicates risk-off sentiment, and, if investors continue to sell off stocks, gold prices could rise further. This is another valuable chart to monitor when uncertainty reigns.

Next week is heavy on macro data, so this back-and-forth movement could continue. Fasten your seatbelts.


End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 up 0.51% on the week, at 5667.56, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.2% on the week at 41,985.35; Nasdaq Composite up 0.17% on the week at 17,784.05.
  • $VIX down 11.39% on the week, closing at 19.28.
  • Best performing sector for the week: Energy
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Utilities
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Elbit Systems, Ltd. (ESLT); XPeng, Inc. (XPEV); Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR); Applovin Corp. (APP); Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB)

On the Radar Next Week

  • March S&P Global PMI
  • February PCE
  • Q4 GDP Growth Rate (final)
  • Fed speeches from Bostic, Barr, Kugler, and others

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

China is practicing “dogfighting” satellites as part of its expanding capabilities in space, according to the United States Space Force, which warned that Washington’s key rivals are closing the technology gap as space becomes increasingly critical to security on Earth.

The Space Force observed “five different objects in space maneuvering in and out and around each other in synchronicity and in control,” its vice chief of space operations Gen. Michael A. Guetlein said Tuesday at a defense conference.

“That’s what we call dogfighting in space. They are practicing tactics, techniques, and procedures to do on-orbit space operations from one satellite to another,” Guetlein said, using a term that typically refers to close-range aerial combat between fighter jets.

While the purpose of such operations was not clear – and some experts question the use of the term – Guetlein’s comments come as analysts say a growing number of countries, including China, have sought to develop counterspace technologies.

Such capabilities could enable a country to destroy or disable satellites, potentially allowing them to interrupt a rival military’s communications or operations like launching and detecting missiles. Such interference could also wreak havoc on global navigation systems used for everything from banking and cargo shipping to ambulance dispatch.

The US has been closely watching China’s rapid rise as a space power in recent decades, not only through its ambitious lunar and deep-space exploration programs, but also what analysts describe as its deepening counterspace capabilities.

In response to a question about China and Russia, Guetlein said they had developed “exquisite” capabilities. He cited the deployment of jammers to disrupt satellite signals, the ability to dazzle intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance satellites with lasers, as well as maneuvers involving grappling with a satellite and towing it to a different orbit.

“This is the most complex and challenging strategic environment that we have seen in a long time, if not ever,” Guetlein said, adding that the force needs “capabilities to deter and, if necessary, defeat aggression” to “guarantee that the advantage is in our favor” into the future.

“There used to be a capability gap between us and our near peers, mainly driven by the technological advancement of the United States … that capability gap has significantly narrowed,” he said.

The “dogfighting” incident referenced by Guetlein involved a series of Chinese satellite maneuvers in 2024 in low Earth orbit involving three Shiyan-24C experimental satellites and two Chinese experimental space objects, the Shijian-6 05A/B, a Space Force spokesperson said.

Beijing has released little public information about its experimental satellites and such operations. The country included safeguarding its “security interests in outer space” among its national defense goals in a 2019 white paper but has long said it stands “for the peaceful use of outer space” and opposes an arms race there.

‘Dogfighting’ in space?

Given the physical dynamics in space, the maneuvers described by Guetlein as “dogfighting” would look very different from those in the air between fighter jets, in this case involving satellites maneuvering around one another using propellant, experts say.

Analysts have long been closely monitoring interactions between satellites and other objects in space. Typically referred to as “rendezvous and proximity operations,” these maneuvers can be used for peaceful operations like satellite maintenance or clearing debris – but could also allow countries to interfere with adversaries’ assets.

“Close maneuvering around other satellites could suggest the development of a counterspace weapon because getting close to another satellite means you could potentially grab it, launch a net or projectile at it, or use an energy weapon, like a laser or jammer,” said Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington.

“But getting close to another satellite might also suggest other purposes, like in-space servicing or refueling. It could also be one satellite trying to take a picture of the other one,” he said, adding that China is launching “more and more satellites that demonstrate the ability to conduct sophisticated maneuvers.”

“We don’t really know for sure, at least not publicly, what any of these satellites are up to, but some are probably doing surveillance and also testing out new space technologies that could be used as counterspace weapons,” Swope added.

There is no confirmed public evidence of China using counterspace capabilities against any military targets, the independent US-based Secure World Foundation said in an annual report on countries’ counterspace capabilities last year.

Russia and the US are also known to conduct proximity operations to their own and other satellites, she added.

“It’s hard to say if this Chinese capability is something that the US doesn’t have since we’re learning about it from US commercial SSA (space situational awareness) companies, who are generally reluctant to discuss what US satellites are up to,” she said.

Referring to China’s operations as “dogfighting” in space is “not helpful” because it “automatically ascribes hostile intentions to activities that frankly the US also undertakes,” Samson added.

Currently, the US doesn’t have an acknowledged operational program to target satellites from within orbit using other satellites or spacecraft, though it could likely quickly field one in the future, according to SWF’s annual report.

That’s because the US has done extensive “non-offensive” testing of technologies to approach and rendezvous with satellites, including close approaches of its own military satellites and several Russian and Chinese military satellites, the foundation said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The southern Ukrainian port city of Odesa was engulfed in flames late Thursday after being struck by a large-scale Russian drone attack, hours after US President Donald Trump expressed optimism about ending the war and as peace talks are set to resume on Monday.

Trump – who recently held separate phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelensky on implementing a partial ceasefire – projected optimism about reaching an end to the war on Thursday, saying “we’re doing pretty well in that regard.”

Delegations from Russia and the US are expected to resume talks on ending the war on Monday in Saudi Arabia, both countries’ officials said, following an earlier round of talks in February.

Zelensky said a team from Ukraine will also attend, with parallel meetings likely to take place, and urged Putin to “stop making unnecessary demands that only prolong the war.”

“I believe we’ll get it done. We’ll see what happens,” Trump said on Thursday, referring to the talks.

Hours after Trump spoke, Russia launched a “massive” drone attack on Odesa, hitting civilian targets and injuring at least three people, including a minor, local officials said.

A high-rise residential building and a shopping center were among the targets, local governor Oleh Kiper said.

Czech President Peter Pavel was in the port city on an official visit at the time of the attack, Ukrainian official Oleksiy Kuleba said.

Meanwhile, Russian assaults wounded at least five others near the southern city of Zaporizhzhia on Thursday, local governor Ivan Fedorov said.

Nearly 200 drones also hit the Kirovohrad region in central Ukraine overnight into Thursday, wounding 10 people, including four children, and damaging homes, a church, and key infrastructure, Zelensky said.

“Russian strikes on Ukraine do not stop, despite their propaganda claims. Every day and every night, nearly a hundred or more drones are launched, along with ongoing missile attacks. With each such launch, the Russians expose to the world their true attitude towards peace,” Zelensky said Thursday on X.

Ukraine and Russia have exchanged aerial assaults in the days since the Kremlin agreed to temporarily halt attacks on energy infrastructure targets, but stopped short of signing off on a broader ceasefire sought by the US.

Overnight into Thursday, Ukraine struck a military airfield deep inside Russian territory, sparking a huge explosion and destroying nearby houses, Russian and Ukrainian officials said.

Ukraine’s military confirmed it was behind the attack on Engels airbase – more than 465 miles from the Ukrainian border – saying it targeted the airbase because it is used by Russia’s air force “to launch missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine and terrorist attacks against the civilian population.”

Zelensky on Wednesday accused Putin of already breaking his pledge, saying that Russia attacked Ukraine with 150 drones, including strikes on energy facilities.

Zelensky has said he is “ready” to pause attacks on Russia’s energy and civilian infrastructure, saying his team will prepare a list of civilian targets to be included in a future deal.

Ukraine “unconditionally agrees” to a ceasefire, but is “waiting for the aggressor to agree,” Zelensky said Thursday while speaking at a press conference in Norway.

Putin announced the halt on energy infrastructure attacks on Tuesday after a lengthy call with Trump. “Vladimir Putin responded positively to this initiative and immediately gave the Russian military the corresponding order,” a Kremlin readout said.

As part of its demands for a broader ceasefire, the Kremlin laid out several tough conditions that Putin had previously insisted on – such as a halt to all foreign military aid and intelligence to Kyiv, and a halt to any Ukrainian mobilization or rearming during that period.

Zelensky spoke to European leaders on Thursday as they reaffirmed their support for Ukraine, calling on other Western leaders to match words of support for Kyiv with deeds, as Trump escalates his courting of Russia.

“The stronger they are on the battlefield, the stronger they are behind the negotiation table,” the European Union’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas said of the Ukrainians, according to Reuters.

The meetings in Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh on Monday are designed for US and Russian officials to hammer out more specific language on the deal reached by Trump and Putin, as well as other areas of negotiation toward a full ceasefire. The talks won’t involve Cabinet-level US officials, the State Department said Wednesday.

This story has been updated with additional information.

Correction: This story has been updated to correct the name of the Ukrainian official Oleksiy Kuleba.

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Sudan’s army has reclaimed the Presidential Palace in the capital, Khartoum, in a significant victory over a rampaging militia that controls swaths of the war-torn country.

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have viciously scrambled for territory since fighting broke out between them in April 2023. The conflict has triggered one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises and has left more than 28,000 people dead with 11 million others forced to flee their homes, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data initiative.

The RSF has laid siege to Khartoum and the Sudanese seat of power since the start of the war. On Friday, the government said its troops had seized control of the Presidential Palace and would continue its push to retake the capital.

“Today the flag is raised, the palace is back, and the journey continues until victory is complete,” information minister Khalid Al-Aiser wrote on X.

The Sudanese justice ministry hailed the “liberation of the Republican Palace,” describing it as “a symbol of national sovereignty.”

“It is quite significant for SAF and central and north Sudanese possibilities of IDPs return,” she said, adding that some questions, however, remained answered.

“The question of Sudan’s governance and to what extent SAF is open to a political process with RSF and other political actors or continues with the war remains a question.”

Photos of government troops celebrating at the palace were shared on social media by the military.

“Our forces … completely destroyed the enemy’s personnel and equipment and seized large quantities of its equipment and weapons,” a military spokesperson said Friday morning in a televised broadcast.

Later on Friday, the RSF said in a Telegram post that “the battle for the Republican Palace is not over yet,” adding that its forces “are still present in the vicinity of the area” and had “carried out a swift military operation targeting a gathering … inside the Republican Palace, killing more than 89 enemy personnel and destroying various military vehicles.”

Local media reported that the palace was hit by a drone, killing an unknown number of soldiers, as well as journalists from the state broadcaster.

Parts of Khartoum are still held by the RSF militia which controls the country’s western, southern and central regions, including Darfur where ethnically motivated killings are common. The SAF administers the eastern and northern parts of the country.

Retaking Khartoum would be symbolic for the SAF whose rival the RSF had begun steps to establish a parallel government. But it would also come at a great cost for the Sudanese people as civilians are often caught in the crossfire.

“Dozens of civilians, including local humanitarian volunteers, have been killed by artillery shelling and aerial bombardment by the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces in eastern Khartoum and north Omdurman since 12 March,” a spokesperson for the United Nations Human Rights Office, Seif Magango, said Thursday as fighting intensified in the capital.

Sudan’s warring parties have each been accused of war crimes. In January, the United States accused the RSF of committing genocide, the second in the country in two decades.

This month, a new report from UNICEF also linked the SAF to atrocities that included sexual violence against young children, some as young as one.

“Credible reports indicate that the RSF and allied militia have raided homes in eastern Khartoum, carrying out summary killings and arbitrary detentions, and looted food and medical supplies from community kitchens and medical clinics,” Magango added. “SAF and affiliated fighters are also reported to have engaged in looting and other criminal activities in areas they control in Khartoum North (Bahri) and East Nile. Widespread arbitrary arrests are ongoing in East Nile.”

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Ivik Knudssen-Ostermann, whose company runs boat tours to see Greenland’s glittering blue icebergs, says his bank has told him to expand ahead of an expected influx of tourists after US. President Donald Trump put the island in the global spotlight.

Trump’s comments, coupled with the opening of a new international airport in the capital Nuuk, have already boosted arrivals and more are expected.

“Already now, we are getting many more bookings than we have received earlier, especially because of a man with the last name of Trump. He has really put Greenland on the map once again,” Knudsen-Ostermann, operator of Greenland Cruises, said, standing on the dock of an ice-packed harbor.

Greenland became the focus of international attention in January when Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., arrived at the newly opened Nuuk airport.

Since then, the US president has doubled down on his pledge to make the Arctic island part of the United States, as he eyes its vast wealth of rare earth minerals critical for high-tech industries.

Greenland is hoping new airports will bolster its tourism and mining industries to diversify the economy, which is currently reliant on fishing for 95% of its exports.

The country’s vast ice sheet, glaciers, deep fjords and abundance of marine life, including whales, are the key attractions, while pride in the local Inuit culture is also growing.

The opening of the airport in Nuuk in November last year has made travel to the island easier. United Airlines is set to begin direct flights from New York to Nuuk in June, replacing the previous route which required tourists to fly via Copenhagen and transit at the former U.S. military base Kangerlussuaq.

Ilulissat, Greenland’s main tourist hub known for its UNESCO-listed ice fjord, is also due to open a new international airport in 2026, while another international airport is under construction in Qaqortoq in southern Greenland.

“We will see quite a significant growth this summer already,” said Jens Lauridsen, CEO of Greenland Airports.

While the bank is telling Knudsen-Ostermann to get more boats and more people, he says he is cautious.

“I want to see what the new airport brings us, what 2025 brings us. We don’t know the future, so I’m holding back a little,” he said.

Statistics Greenland reported a 14% year-on-year rise in the number of passengers on international flights to Greenland in January. The number of hotel nights has seen a steady increase over the past decade, with 355,000 recorded last year, up from 210,000 in 2014, it said.

Three-quarters of tourism operators reported an increase in bookings in the three months following the opening of Nuuk’s new airport, according to Visit Greenland.

Lars Ipland, a Danish tourist in Nuuk, said Greenland was one of the last parts of the world he hadn’t seen.

“It’s a part of Denmark, so I thought I have to see it. Now with all the attention, you don’t know what’s happening next week or if it’s another flag up here or whatever they decide to do.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Violent clashes erupted across several cities in Turkey between opposition supporters and state security forces for a second day, as demonstrators demand the release of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, according to videos and reports from Turkish media outlets.

Police in capital city Ankara and Istanbul fired tear gas and used water cannons to disperse protesters gathering, social media videos and local media outlets in Turkey showed.

Turkish authorities detained Imamoglu – a key political rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – on Wednesday, as part of corruption and terrorism investigations. Detention orders were also issued for about 100 others connected to the mayor, including his press adviser Murat Ongun, according to state-run news agency Anadolu Agency on Wednesday.

Friday’s protests follow several violent instances on Thursday. At least 16 police officers were injured during clashes with protesters across Turkey on Thursday, according to Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya, and at least 53 people were detained. It’s unclear how many protesters were injured during the ongoing protests.

On Thursday, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader, Ozgur Ozel, addressed crowds in Istanbul while on a bus rooftop. “We will not stay home while you keep our elected representative locked up. From now on we are on the streets. They are asking me ‘Are you calling people to take the streets?’ Yes, yes, yes!” Ozel said.

Erdogan has dismissed opposition anger as “theatrics” and “slogans” for which Turkey has no time.

Thousands again protested outside the Istanbul municipality building on Friday, defying a four-day ban on street gatherings in the city, waving Turkish flags and chanting slogans in protest over the decision. Protests led by university students also gathered steam in Ankara and Izmir, where the prohibition is also in effect.

Imamoglu was elected mayor in 2019 and again in 2024. The next presidential vote is scheduled for 2028, but some analysts say Erdogan could call for early elections, which would allow him to bypass term limits.

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Russia and Ukraine traded blame on Friday over an attack on a gas metering station that lies in Russia’s Kursk region, just a few hundred meters from their shared border.

The attack on the facility in Sudzha comes just days after the US proposed both sides pause attacks on energy infrastructure.

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed Kyiv had “deliberately attacked” the station, which has been under Ukrainian control since Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into Kursk in August 2024.

Moscow claims Ukrainian forces blew up the facility while “retreating from the Kursk region” with the aim of “discrediting the US president’s peace initiatives.”

Kyiv has described those accusations as “groundless” and claimed they are aimed at discrediting Ukraine and misleading the international community.

“Indeed, the station has been repeatedly shelled by the Russians themselves,” Ukraine’s General Staff said in a Telegram post on Friday.

According to the Ukrainian military, Russia struck the same station with missiles as recently as three days ago.

“The attempts by the Russians to deceive everyone and pretend that they are adhering to the ceasefire will not work, (neither) will the fake news about the strikes on the gas station,” Ukraine’s Presidential Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak posted on X Friday.

The Sudzha gas metering station was the last route through which Russian natural gas was delivered to Europe through Ukraine. Natural gas transportation through Sudzha was terminated on the morning of January 1, 2025, after Kyiv refused to renew the contract.

The attack on the station comes more than a week after the announcement by Russian forces that they had recaptured Sudzha, the largest town that Ukraine has occupied during its incursion into Kursk. Ukraine’s occupation of parts of Kursk is seen as its sole territorial bargaining chip amid pressure to negotiate an end to the war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to temporarily halt attacks on energy targets in Ukraine after a lengthy telephone call with President Donald Trump on Tuesday, though he stopped short of signing off on a broader ceasefire to end the three-year-long conflict in Ukraine.

On Wednesday Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he would support a pause on striking energy targets after his phone call with Trump.

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Self-proclaimed misogynist Andrew Tate is back in Romania along with his brother Tristan to report to the police, following a trip to Florida that triggered a state-level criminal probe.

The online celebrity, who has amassed a massive following peddling sexist content about male dominance, is facing charges over human trafficking and forming an organized criminal group with his brother in Romania. They have denied all wrongdoing.

The pair, both dual British and American citizens, left Romania late last month after prosecutors lifted a travel ban on them. They flew to Florida, only to find themselves subject to a new criminal investigation by state authorities there.

They spoke to reporters Saturday after returning to Romania.

“We’re here to clear our names and exonerate ourselves,” Andrew Tate said, speaking outside his house in Bucharest.

“After all we’ve been through, we truly deserve the day in court where it is stated that we’ve done nothing wrong and that we should never be in court in the first place.”

He referred to allegations against them as “garbage.”

The Tates are required to regularly check in with police. Their next check-in is due on March 24, according to Reuters.

Earlier Friday, Andrew Tate posted a picture of the pair on the flight, saying: “Innocent men don’t run. THEY CLEAR THEIR NAME IN COURT.”

“Spending 185,000 dollars on a private jet across the Atlantic to sign one single piece of paper in Romania,” he wrote.

Romanian authorities arrested the brothers in December 2022 and placed them under police custody. They were later placed under house arrest.

Prosecutors in Romania accused them of forming an organized criminal group that stretched across the country, as well as the United Kingdom and the US, trafficking women and sexually exploiting them with physical violence and coercion.

Andrew Tate is also accused of raping one of the alleged victims. Separately, the two faced an investigation into allegations of human trafficking of minors and sex with a minor lodged against the brothers.

Andrew and Tristan Tate have denied all allegations of wrongdoing, with Andrew writing on X that the brothers “have always been innocent.”

Days after they arrived in Florida late last month, Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier announced an active criminal investigation into the brothers, led by the Office of Statewide Prosecution. Florida has “zero tolerance for people who abuse women and girls,” he added.

The brothers’ defense attorney accused Uthmeier of throwing “ethics law out of the window.”

The brothers are also being investigated for allegations of rape and human trafficking in the UK, where they have also denied wrongdoing.

Andrew Tate also faces a civil suit there by four women, accusing him of rape and coercive control.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

US President Donald Trump said he thinks Vladimir Putin wants peace. Ukraine and its European allies don’t believe he does, while the Russian leader himself said he wants peace but then refused to sign up to it when presented with the option.

What Putin really wants, though, is much, much bigger.

The Russian president has made no secret of the fact that he believes Ukraine should not exist as an independent state and he has repeatedly said he wants NATO to shrink back to its Cold War-era size.

But more than anything, he wants to see a new global order — and he wants Russia to play the starring role in it.

Putin and several of his most trusted allies emerged from the remnants of the KGB, the Soviet-era intelligence agency. They have never forgotten the humiliation of the fall of the Soviet Union and are not happy with the way the world has turned out since then.

Putin rose to power during the chaos of the 1990s, when the Russian economy collapsed and had to be rescued by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank – another humiliation for the former superpower.

But from 2000, when Putin became president, steadily rising oil prices made Russia and many Russians richer than ever before. And Russia had a voice. It was invited into the G7 group of the world’s largest economies – renamed the G8 after it joined.

“Putin was happy to throw all that away on behalf of his citizens because of higher geopolitical aims,” Berzina said. Russia was expelled from the G8, sanctioned by the West and ostracized on the global stage because of its aggression against Ukraine.

Berzina said it was never good enough for Russia to be “the eighth in the G7.”

“That doesn’t work within Russia’s understanding of its own exceptionalism. It is the largest country in the world, the richest in (natural) resources, so how can it simply be one of the players?” she said.

To understand what Putin wants from the current talks with the US, it’s key to remember that the two sides are talking because the United States made a policy U-turn under Trump — not because of a fundamental change in Russian thinking.

Trump wants the war in Ukraine to end as soon as possible, even if it means further territorial losses for Ukraine.

This means Putin has little to lose from talking.

Trump has claimed that “Russia holds all the cards” in the war with Ukraine, but the battlefield has been mostly stalled for the past two years.

While Russia is making some incremental gains, it is definitely not winning – though this could change if the US was to stop supplying arms and intelligence to Ukraine.

For Putin and the people around him, Trump’s push for a ceasefire simply presents an opportunity to secure quick wins while keeping an eye on the long-term goals, he said.

“Putin is an opportunist. He likes creating dynamic, chaotic situations, which throw up a whole variety of opportunities. And then he can then just pick which opportunity appeals to him, and he can change his mind,” Galeotti said.

Long term plan

Putin and his aides have made it very clear that their long-term goals have not changed. Even as they talk about wanting peace, Russian officials have continued to insist that the “root causes” of the conflict in Ukraine must be “eliminated.”

In the Kremlin’s view, these “root causes” amount to Ukraine’s sovereignty and its democratically elected President Volodymyr Zelensky, as well as NATO’s expansion to the east in the past 30 years.

Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 to force a regime change in Kyiv, planning to install a pro-Moscow government. His goal was to turn Ukraine into a vassal state like Belarus and prevent it from joining the European Union and NATO in the future.

He has not achieved that goal by using military force, but that doesn’t mean he has abandoned it.

Instead, he might try to achieve it by other means.

“The easiest way for Russia to attain what it wants in a different country is not through military means, but through interference and electoral process,” Berzina said, adding that it is possible – even likely – that this is what Moscow would try to do after a ceasefire was in place.

This is likely why Russia keeps questioning Zelensky’s legitimacy and pushing for an election – and why Kremlin was delighted when Trump adopted this narrative and called the Ukrainian leader “a dictator without elections.” Ukraine’s martial law – imposed because of Russia’s aggression – prohibits elections from taking place while the conflict is ongoing.

Trump and his vice president, JD Vance, have rejected the idea that Ukraine could join NATO any time soon and Putin has asked for a US commitment that this will not happen to be part of any ceasefire agreement.

But Berzina said that Ukraine’s European allies are not buying Putin’s promises that he would stop fighting if Ukraine became – as he called it – neutral.

“No matter what Trump and Putin think they can arrange this week or this year, many people in Europe now find Putin fundamentally untrustworthy,” she said.

“Could there be a desire for Russia to try its hand again militarily? Sure. And that is why the Europeans are very clear-eyed on the potential for future military engagement.”

It’s all personal

Andrei Soldatov, a Russian investigative journalist and security expert who lives in exile in London, said Putin and his aides believe they can “try to get something out of Trump right now.”

“They think they can win some tactical battles but that he would not give them what they really want, which is a complete rearrangement of security arrangements in Europe,” he said.

Russia’s wariness of the US goes far back.

“It’s very personal to them because they were all young KGB officers back then, and they lost their social standing, they lost a place in Russian society, they lost the country as they describe it now, and it was extremely humiliating,” Soldatov said.

“They really believe that the West has been after the complete destruction and subjugation of Russia for centuries. It’s not just propaganda, they really, really believe in this.” But Putin has also framed his plan for Ukraine within his own – inaccurate — interpretation of history, which goes well beyond the fall of the Soviet Union. Putin has often argued that Ukraine is not a real country because Ukraine and Ukrainians are part of a larger “historical Russia”

Experts say this is, of course, nonsense.

“What he’s talking about is the fact that Russia and Ukraine and Belarus share a political ancestor called Rus … but it’s very much not the same thing as any modern country. It was an early to late medieval political entity and to say that Ukraine doesn’t have a right to exist because of this shared ancestor — no country looks the same as in the 10th century,” said Monica White, an associate professor in Russian and Slavonic Studies at the University of Nottingham.

Putin has also often turned to Russia’s religious identity in support of his plan. The leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, is one of the loudest supporters of the war.

“After the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia lost its connection with the ancestral Orthodox lands and I think part of Putin’s project is to try to bring back that thread connecting 10th century Rus with this pure orthodox continuity,” White said. “What he’s doing is actually not so different from some of the early Romanov Tzars who kept trying to get back the Orthodox lands that were under either Ottoman or Catholic rule, and they eventually did.”

Putin’s overwhelming desire is to return Russia to the global stage with a bang, she suggests – by creating a wedge between Europe and the US and teaming up with the West’s other adversaries.

“Russia wants to be at all the important tables – so whatever comes next, maybe it doesn’t have to mean territorial conquest in Europe, but I think it does have to be in a starring role in the more powerful bloc, if it sees that to include China or Iran or others, a bloc that is defined by its willingness to disrupt and destabilize,” White added.

Putin clearly believes that Russia – the largest country in the world by area – should be involved in running the world. He might have a like-minded man in the White House. Trump has made it clear that he believes the biggest and most powerful countries should get what they want – whether it’s Greenland, the Panama Canal, or a chunk of Ukraine.

“I think that the fundamental point is that, as far as Trump is concerned, Ukraine is a bought and paid for vassal state and has to understand its place and accept that, essentially, America will work out some kind of a deal with Russia and then bring it back to Ukraine,” Galeotti said.

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Investors have closely watched Nvidia’s week-long GPU Technology Conference (GTC) for news and updates from the dominant maker of chips that power artificial intelligence applications.

The event comes at a pivotal time for Nvidia shares. After two years of monster gains, the stock is down 15% over the past month and 22% below the January all-time high.

As part of the event, CEO Jensen Huang took questions from analysts on topics ranging from demand for its advanced Blackwell chips to the impact of Trump administration tariffs. Here’s a breakdown of how Huang responded — and what analysts homed in on — during some of the most important questions:

Huang said he “underrepresented” demand in a slide that showed 3.6 million in estimated Blackwell shipments to the top four cloud service providers this year. While Huang acknowledged speculation regarding shrinking demand, he said the amount of computation needed for AI has “exploded” and that the four biggest cloud service clients remain “fully invested.”

Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore noted that Huang’s commentary on Blackwell demand in data centers was the first-ever such disclosure.

“It was clear that the reason the company made the decision to give that data was to refocus the narrative on the strength of the demand profile, as they continue to field questions related to Open AI related spending shifting from 1 of the 4 to another of the 4, or the pressure of ASICs, which come from these 4 customers,” Moore wrote to clients, referring to application-specific integrated circuits.

Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar said the slide was “only scratching the surface” on demand. Beyond the four largest customers, he said others are also likely “all in line looking to get their hands on as much compute as their budgets allow.”

Another takeaway for Moore was the growth in physical AI, which refers to the use of the technology to power machines’ actions in the real world as opposed to within software.

At previous GTCs, Moore said physical AI “felt a little bit like speculative fiction.” But this year, “we are now hearing developers wrestling with tangible problems in the physical realm.”

Truist analyst William Stein, meanwhile, described physical AI as something that’s “starting to materialize.” The next wave for physical AI centers around robotics, he said, and presents a potential $50 trillion market for Nvidia.

Stein highliughted Jensen’s demonstration of Isaac GR00T N1, a customizable foundation model for humanoid robots.

Several analysts highlighted Huang’s explanation of what tariffs mean for Nvidia’s business.

“Management noted they have been preparing for such scenarios and are beginning to manufacture more onshore,” D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria said. “It was mentioned that Nvidia is already utilizing [Taiwan Semiconductor’s’] Arizona fab where it is manufacturing production silicon.”

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon said Huang’s answer made it seem like Nvidia’s push to relocate some manufacturing to the U.S. would limit the effect of higher tariffs.

Rasgon also noted that Huang brushed off concerns of a recession hurting customer spending. Huang argued that companies would first cut spending in the areas of their business that aren’t growing, Rasgon said.

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