The S&P 500 index managed to log one of its strongest weeks in 2025. Short-term breadth conditions have improved, and the crucial 5500 level has now been broken to the upside. Are we in the later stages of a countertrend rally, or just in the early innings of a broader recovery for stocks?

Let’s review three key charts together and evaluate the evidence.

Trendline Break Suggests Further Short-Term Strength

My daily chart of the S&P 500 has featured a thick pink trendline since March, when a lower peak around 5800 provided a perfect opportunity to define the downtrend phase. With the quick reversal off the early April low around 4850, the SPX has finally broken back above this trendline.

To be clear, after a breakout of this magnitude, I’m always looking for confirmation from the following day. Will additional buyers come in to push this chart even further to the upside? Assuming that’s the case, then I’m immediately drawn to a confluence of resistance in the 5750-5850 range. The 200-day moving average is currently sitting right around the late March peak, and both of those levels line up well with a price gap back in November 2024.

If the S&P 500 can finally break above that resistance range, I would expect much further upside for risk assets.

Breadth Conditions Confirm Short-Term Market Strength

One of the biggest improvements I’ve seen coming out of the early April low is the upgrade in short-term breadth conditions. The McClellan Oscillator has broken back above the zero level, most days this week saw more advancers than decliners, and the Bullish Percent Index has definitely improved.

In the bottom panel, we can see that the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index has risen from a low just above 10% at the April low to finish this week at 64%. That confirms that over half of the S&P 500 members generated a point & figure buy signal in the month of April!

But the middle panel shows the real challenge here, in that long-term measures of breadth are still clearly in the bearish range. Just 35% of the S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving average, similar to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. It’s only if this indicator can push above the 50% level that the S&P 500 could stand a real chance of sustainable gains above 5750.

The Stoplight Technique Lays Out a Clear Playbook

I love to overlay a “stoplight” visualization on a chart like this, helping me clarify how I’ll think about risk depending on where the S&P 500 sits at any given point.

I would argue that a confirmed break above resistance at 5500 brings the S&P 500 chart into the “neutral” bucket. In this way, we’re respecting the fact that a rally from 4850 to 5500 is a fairly impressive feat, but also acknowledging that the SPX remains below its most important long-term trend barometer, the 200-day moving average.

If we see further gains in the weeks to come, the SPX may indeed push into the bullish range, which for me would mean a push above 5750-5800. In that scenario, the S&P 500 would be clear of its 200-day moving average, and I would feel much more comfortable adding risk to the portfolio. Until and unless we see that upside follow-through, though, I’ll remain comfortably defensive.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Shares of Tesla Inc. (TSLA) have been decidedly rangebound over the last two months, bouncing between support around $220 and resistance at $290. The recent price action, as well as the momentum characteristics, have confirmed this sideways trend for TSLA. How the stock exits this consolidation phase could make all the difference!

In this article, we’ll look at this intriguing technical setup, showing how changes in momentum could confirm a new breakout phase. From there, we’ll examine how we can use a “stoplight” technique to better define risk and reward for this leading growth stock.

It’s Definitely Time to Go Fishing

Jesse Livermore famously said, “There’s a time to go long, time to go short, and time to go fishing.” And were he alive today, I think the chart of Tesla would definitely elicit a “time to go fishing” mindset for Livermore.

With the stock bouncing consistently between clear support and clear resistance, this appears to be in a straightforward consolidation phase.

After peaking in December 2024 around $480, TSLA dropped to a March 2025 low around $220. From there, the price has rotated between the 200-day moving average as resistance and that $220 level as support. To be clear, the countertrend rallies in March and April have been impressive, but they have not yet provided enough upside pressure to propel Tesla back above the crucial 200-day moving average.

Momentum Indicators Confirm the Sideways Trend

As we love to highlight on our daily market recap show, RSI can be such a valuable tool to assess the interplay between buyers and sellers. During a bullish phase, the RSI usually ranges between 40 to 80, as dip buyers use pullbacks to add to existing positions.

We can see this pattern from June 2024 through the end of January 2025, as the RSI remained above 40 on pullbacks within the bullish trend phase. Then, in February 2025, the RSI pushed below 40 as TSLA broke below its 50-day moving average. We’ve color-coded this section red, showing how the entire range of the RSI drifted lower during a clear distribution phase.

Over the last six weeks, the RSI has been in a tight range between 40 and 60. As the price of Tesla has remained rangebound, the momentum readings suggest an equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Until the RSI breaks out of its own sideways range, the chart is suggesting we wait for new information to change the picture.

A Breakout Above $290 Would Suggest a Bullish Resolution

So if we apply a “stoplight technique” to the chart of Tesla, we can better visualize how we might approach this stock from a technical perspective as we negotiate an end to this consolidation pattern.

If we see a positive resolution to the pattern, and TSLA is able to finally clear price resistance and the 200-day moving average around $290, that would indicate a new accumulation phase with further upside potential. A break below $220, on the other hand, would suggest a lack of willing buyers at support and, most likely, a new distribution phase.

As long as TSLA remains below $220 and $290, Jesse Livermore would suggest we “go fishing” instead of taking a shot at an underwhelming chart!

One more thing… I’ve heard from many investors that struggle with selling too early, leaving potential future gains on the table.  Is there anything more painful than that?  My recent video may give you some ideas of how to address this in your own investment process.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

If you’ve been exploring ways to take your options trading to the next level, the OptionsPlay Add-On for StockCharts is the single most impactful upgrade you can make. And now, it’s even better.

Courtesy of a big and highly-anticipated update, the Strategy Center within the OptionsPlay Add-On now runs directly on your ChartLists—allowing you to discover optimal Covered Calls, Short Puts, Debit and Credit Spreads, and Iron Condors on the stocks you follow or scan for. This new feature turns OptionsPlay into a fully personalized strategy engine, delivering the options ideas you need, when you need them.

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Speaking overall, the stock market hasn’t changed course after last week’s bounce; the upside momentum is still here, albeit acting a little tentative. One piece of news that may have helped move the market higher on Tuesday, though, was President Trump’s decision to scale back on auto tariffs.

Investors seem to be looking forward to any news of progress on trade negotiations and key economic data, namely Q1 GDP, March personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), and the April jobs report. There are also some important earnings this week, including META Platforms, Inc. (META), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), and Apple, Inc. (AAPL), among others. So, don’t be surprised if there’s some turbulence this week.

Recent economic data hasn’t moved the needle much. The latest JOLTS report showed fewer job openings in March, but layoffs declined. This indicates the labor market is still strong. The April nonfarm payrolls report on Friday will bring more clarity.

Consumer confidence took a hit, falling to its lowest reading since May 2020. This drop reflects concerns about tariffs and how they might push up prices. The bottom line is that consumers are nervous about what’s ahead.

Technical Update

Despite its bounce, the S&P 500 ($SPX) is still down around 9.0% from its February high, but up about 15% from its April lows. The weekly chart below has the Fibonacci retracement levels from the October 2022 lows to the February 2025 highs. The index bounced off its 50% retracement level and is now above its 38.2% level. It’s also trading below its 40-week simple moving average (SMA), which is the equivalent of a 200-day SMA.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART ANALYSIS OF S&P 500. The index has bounced off its 50% Fibonacci retracement level, and breadth is improving. However, the market appears to be in a wait-and-see mode, and any negative news could send the index lower. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

It’s encouraging to see the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index (BPI) above 50%, and the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average showing slight signs of reversing from a downtrend. However, the S&P 500 appears indecisive and is waiting for some catalyst to move the index in either direction.

Does the daily chart show a different scenario? Let’s take a look.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART ANALYSIS OF S&P 500. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level is an important level to monitor since it could act as a support level. Resistance levels to the upside are the 50-day moving average, the 61.8% Fib retracement level, and the 200-day moving average. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The daily chart of the S&P 500 above shows the index trading below its 200-day SMA. In addition, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (from the February 2025 high to the April 2025 low) is acting as a support level. One point to note is the wide-ranging days in April, which have subsided toward the end of the month. This suggests investors have calmed down—the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) has pulled back and is now below 30.

The short-term perspective shows the trend is leaning toward moving higher. Keep an eye on the 5500 level as support and the 50-day SMA as the next resistance level. If the S&P 500 can break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level with strong momentum, that’s reason to be optimistic. A break above the 200-day SMA would be more optimistic.

While the S&P 500 is inching higher, something is brewing beneath the surface—a shift toward the more defensive sectors.

Sector Rotation: Defensive Gains

The Relative Rotation Graph below shows that for the week, defensive sectors—Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Health Care—are leading, while offensive sectors, like Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services, are lagging.

FIGURE 3. RELATIVE ROTATION GRAPH. Defensive sectors are leading while offensive sectors are lagging. Monitor sector rotation carefully as we head into a volatile trading week. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

This isn’t unusual, since investors are feeling more cautious and looking for stability.

What’s Ahead?

There’s still key economic data to monitor this week. Here’s what’s ahead:

• Wednesday: March personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s favored inflation measure. A stronger-than-expected number could send the market lower since it may make the Fed more hawkish. There’s also the Q1 GDP growth, which will indicate if economic growth is stalling or continues to be strong.
• Friday: April nonfarm payrolls will give us an idea of the strength of the labor market. Evidence of a strengthening labor market would reduce the probability of an interest rate cut, which could put pressure on stocks.

Closing Position

The market is feeling cautious, waiting for the next catalyst to send stock prices higher or lower. And any of this week’s events—economic data, big tech earnings, and trade talks—could make or break this week’s price action. However, even if the S&P 500 trends higher, it doesn’t necessarily mean the big tech growth stocks are leading the move higher. Do a sector drill-down from our new Market Summary page and invest accordingly.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.