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In my recent podcast interview with every trading day at 5:00pm ET on our YouTube channel!


After a major low in October 2023 around $103, ICE spent the next 12 months in a primary uptrend formed by a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Note the bearish momentum divergence that occurred going into the late October high around $167, and how the subsequent pullback found support right at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous uptrend phase.

Over the last six weeks, ICE has reversed course and now sits above two upward-sloping moving averages as it has achieved a new all-time high. The bottom panel provides a fantastic reminder of the value of buying strong charts after they have pulled back to potential support levels, and also shows the impressive outperformance ICE has experienced in 2025.

The daily chart of Visa (V) features a cup-and-handle pattern for much of 2024, with a rounded bottom pattern ending with a brief pullback before a breakout above the “rim” of the cup. From that breakout around $290 in early November 2024, Visa has not looked back. This week, V achieved a new 52-week high, continuing a trend of outperformance that goes back to that November breakout.

Visa is a great example of what comprises a strong technical configuration. Price is making higher highs and higher lows, the two moving averages are both sloping higher, the RSI remains in a bullish range between 40 and 80, and the relative strength has been trending higher. As long as those features remain, the chart suggests further upside potential.

Not all financial names have been breaking out this week, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) a great example of stocks that have pulled back even though the long-term trend remains strong. This week, JPM dropped to test its 50-day moving average, in a similar fashion to other pullbacks through the last 18 months.

Even with those frequent drawdowns, however, JPMorgan has sustained a bullish momentum configuration, with the RSI usually finding a low around 40 on price pullbacks. The relative strength has improved over the last six months, as JPM has managed to move higher while leading growth names have been struggling to hold key support levels.

One of the most common momentum factors measured by quantitative models is called the “12-1” factor, meaning the 12-month return minus the one-month return. A stock that has experienced a strong 12 months but a weak one-month would score the best. I would guess those momentum models are grading JPM quite well given the recent pullback and long-term bullish phase.

The best way I’ve found to weather periods of market uncertainty is to focus on relative strength, looking for stocks that are able to outperform their struggling benchmarks. These three stocks in the financial sector prove that there are charts out there with decent technical configurations; you just need to know where to look!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The meeting between Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Washington on Thursday resulted in an “unprecedented” invitation to the US president from Britain’s King Charles III.

But what was actually in the letter that Starmer handed over?

Presenting Trump with the missive from the British monarch in the Oval Office, Starmer said it contained an invitation for an “unprecedented second state visit.”

“This is really special. This has never happened before. Unprecedented,” Starmer said, putting a hand on Trump’s shoulder.

“I think that just symbolizes the strength of the relationship between us,” he continued, adding: “I think the last state visit was a tremendous success. His Majesty the King wants to make this even better than that. So, this is – this is truly historic.”

As he took and opened the letter, Trump described the King as “a great, great gentlemen” and remarked on his “beautiful” signature.

“He’s a beautiful man. A wonderful man,” the president said, adding: “I’ve gotten to know him very well, actually.”

The contents of the letter that Trump flashed to reporters show the King eager to build on the strength of his personal relationship with the president.

In the first paragraph, Charles appears to outline the “breadth of challenges across the world” and “the vital role” their two countries have to play in “promoting” the values that “matter so much to us all.”

He starts the second paragraph by reminiscing about Trump’s previous visits to the UK during his first term as president, and thoughtfully provides him with options for how they could next meet in a way that is most convenient for the president.

“I remember with great fondness your visits to the United Kingdom during your previous Presidency, and recall our nascent plan for you to visit Dumfries House, in Scotland, as the global pandemic began and all bets – and flights! – were off… I can only say that it would be a great pleasure to extend that invitation once again, in the hope that you might at some stage be visiting Turnberry and a detour to a relatively near neighbour might not cause you too much inconvenience. An alternative might perhaps be for you to visit Balmoral, if you are calling in at Menie,” he writes.

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    Charles suggests the two could meet when Trump is already in Scotland for some leisure time, with Trump’s golf resort in Turnberry just 30 miles from Dumfries House, Charles’ 18th-century mansion near Glasgow. Trump’s golf course at the Menie Estate in Aberdeenshire is about 60 miles northeast of Balmoral Castle.

    The King then looks for some common ground: “There is much on both Estates which I think you might find interesting, and enjoy – particularly as my Foundation at Dumfries House provides hospitality skills-training for young people who often end up as staff in your own establishments!”

    The King closes the letter by saying a visit would present “an opportunity to discuss a wide range of issues of mutual interest” and “would offer a valuable chance to plan a historic second state visit,” adding that they can together discuss “a range of options for location and programme content.”

    “In so doing, working together, I know we will further enhance the special relationship between our two countries, of which we are both so proud,” Charles concludes.

    This post appeared first on cnn.com

    It was improbable from the start.

    For months, even as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted he wanted to bring the hostages home from Gaza, he resisted signing a ceasefire agreement with Hamas. Sustained pressure from thousands-strong marches could not get him to the signing table.

    But the combined pressure of the outgoing and incoming American presidents got Netanyahu to agree to a 42-day truce for the release of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for more than 1,700 Palestinian prisoners, and an infusion of aid into Gaza. (Ultimately, 38 hostages were released over 39 days.)

    The agreement he did ultimately sign, then-US President Joe Biden argued, was essentially the same deal that had been on the table for nearly a year.

    The final, 42nd-day of that truce is Saturday. The ceasefire agreement stipulates that the truce can continue so long as negotiators are talking, so it may well hobble on. But as tough as negotiations for the first phase were, whatever comes next will be much more difficult.

    Phase two of a ceasefire, which is supposed to last another 42 days, would see the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza and the release of all living hostages held by Hamas – estimated to number 24 men – in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

    But talks about what comes next have only just begun, and Netanyahu has made it increasingly clear that he has no interest in that framework.

    Netanyahu blew past the February 3 deadline to send a negotiating team to talk about phase two, choosing instead to visit US President Donald Trump in Washington. At the 11th hour, on Thursday, he announced that he would send a team to Cairo – but without its chief negotiator, his close political ally, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer.

    “We are committed to the release of all hostages, and we will continue to search for different ways to do so,” Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said Thursday while meeting with his Czech counterpart. There was no mention of the fact that that framework exists – agreed to in the Qatari capital in January.

    Hamas has repeatedly committed itself to the ceasefire. Despite walking close to the edge when it sent to Israel the body of an unknown Palestinian woman instead of Shiri Bibas – mistakenly, the group says – it has largely stuck to the agreement.

    But it has yet to answer the big question: Will it disarm and leave Gaza?

    Hamas’s leaders, scattered between Gaza and across the region, are bullish one moment and conciliatory the next – but have consistently refused to engage on the question of disarmament.

    Hamas “was not erased” by the war, Osama Hamdan, a member of the group’s political bureau, said in Qatar last week. “Whoever comes to fill Israel’s place (in Gaza) will be treated like Israel.” Hamas, he said, has “an opportunity to expand.”

    Hazam Qassem, a spokesperson for the group, said that week that he was “surprised” by a suggestion from an Arab League official that the “resignation of Hamas represents the interest of the Palestinian people.”

    And yet on Wednesday, another political bureau official, Husam Badran, said that the group was willing to step aside from governing Gaza. “Our only condition is for this to be an internal Palestinian matter – we will not allow any regional or international party to get involved,” he told Al Arabiya. “As long as there is national consensus, Hamas will not be involved in the governance.”

    Netanyahu still refuses to say what he envisions for Gaza’s post-war future, except to say that he endorses Trump’s plan for “a different Gaza” – the emigration of all 2.1 million Palestinians in the enclave, and the construction of a Gulf State-like Xanadu. And he thinks neither the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority nor Hamas should govern Gaza.

    Objectionable though it may be, Trump’s plan capitalized on a vacuum of leadership not just from Netanyahu, but in the region. Arab leaders are scrambling to come up with their own vision for rebuilding Gaza – while allowing the Palestinians to remain.

    Extending phase one indefinitely would suit an Israeli prime minister whose extremist ministerial allies want to start bombing Gaza again and then re-establish the Jewish settlements that Israel forced out 20 years ago.

    That does not mean war is imminent in Gaza.

    “There isn’t a desire to relaunch the war,” the Israeli source said. “However there is a desire to go along with the US, hand in hand with the US.”

    “There is an understanding in Israel that Trump wants a more regional settlement. So that obviously doesn’t mean that the war will start again right away.”

    Netanyahu may seek to get more hostages home while continuing to keep the military massed on Gaza’s borders on a hair trigger.

    The question for the coming hours and days will be whether Hamas would agree to give up its most important negotiating asset – hostages – without any commitment to end the war.

    “Netanyahu’s plan to extend phase 1 in order to release more hostages without obligating to end the war and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza will be totally rejected by Hamas,” the longtime former Israeli negotiator-turned-peace activist Gershon Baskin said on Monday.

    Hamas’ leaders inside Gaza, he opined, “are becoming increasingly independent from the Hamas leaders outside.” Those exiled leaders, he said, are more willing than the battle-front commanders to resume the war, “with the full awareness that their leverage is the lives of the remaining hostages.”

    Those inside Gaza “will not hesitate taking revenge on the hostages if the fighting resumes,” he said. “The war is over, even if Netanyahu fails to recognize it. The alternative to Hamas will be the result of political decisions and not more warfare.”

    Kareem Khadder and Zeena Saifi contributed to this report.

    This post appeared first on cnn.com

    An Israeli man who was held hostage by Hamas for 491 days has described how he was starved while in captivity and recalled the moment on his release from Gaza – when he found out his wife and daughters had been killed during the October 7, 2023 attacks.

    Eli Sharabi was released earlier this month along with Ohad Ben Ami and Or Levy as part of the Gaza ceasefire and hostages agreement between Israel and Hamas.

    The 52-year-old Sharabi said his captors had not told him that his wife Lianne and daughters Noiya and Yahel were killed during the 2023 attack. Instead, he learned of their fate after his release.

    In an emotional televised interview that aired Thursday on Israeli Channel 12, he recalled the moment he was taken by the Red Cross to an Israel Defense Forces post where psychologists and a family friend, a social worker, awaited. “I said, ‘Bring me my wife and the girls,’” Sharabi recalled. “She told me, ‘Osnat [his sister] and Mom are waiting for you.”

    Choking back tears, Sharabi added: “It was clear that there’s no need to tell. Because at that moment, she had already told me. It’s clear that the worst has happened.”

    “I really hope they didn’t feel pain in their last moments. That it happened fast and wasn’t painful. I hope they are in a good place,” he added, his voice breaking.

    Sharabi also shed light on the plight of the remaining hostages, including his close friend Alon Ohel with whom he had shared a tunnel and formed an “unbreakable bond.”

    Sharabi said hostages were given one meal a day – often a bowl of pasta or half a pita – totaling just 250-300 calories. “We’d cut the pita into four pieces and nibble one slice for 10 minutes, pretending it was enough,” Sharabi said, adding that he dreamed of his mother’s cooking. “You dream of opening a fridge … taking an egg, a vegetable, water. That’s freedom.”

    The Channel 12 interview concluded with a plea from Sharabi: “People must understand – every hostage is someone’s child, parent, sibling. Don’t forget them.”

    The ceasefire deal has seen the release of 38 hostages held by Hamas, five of whom were freed separately to the deal, as well as thousands of Palestinian prisoners and detainees held by Israel.

    The first phase of the truce is set to end this weekend and negotiators are yet to agree on what comes next.

    This post appeared first on cnn.com

    Pope Francis suffered a sudden episode of respiratory difficulty and was put on a breathing machine on Friday, according to the latest medical update from the Vatican.

    The episode was complicated by vomiting, some of which he aspirated, the Vatican said. Medical staff treated the aspiration issue before putting the pope on mechanical ventilation, it said.

    The Vatican added that the pontiff “remained alert and oriented at all times.”

    A spokesperson later noted that he is not considered out of danger at this point.

    Francis was first admitted to Rome’s Gemelli Hospital two weeks ago, after being plagued by a string of lung-related medical struggles, including bronchitis and then pneumonia. His current hospitalization is his forth, and now longest, stay since he became pope in 2013.

    The pontiff has suffered from lung-related issues for much of his life. As a young man, he suffered from severe pneumonia and had part of one lung removed.

    The Vatican has been releasing twice daily updates on the pope’s health. On Thursday, it said that Francis’ condition was “improving” but his prognosis remained unclear.

    The Argentinian leader’s schedule has been cleared to accommodate his intensive medical treatment.

    Earlier on Friday, the Vatican announced that the pope will not lead next week’s Ash Wednesday service, marking the start of Lent, for only the second time in his 12-year papacy. A cardinal is expected to lead the service instead.

    This story has been updated.

    This post appeared first on cnn.com

    Twenty-five people have been arrested in a global operation over AI-generated child sexual abuse material, said Europol, the European Union’s law enforcement agency, in a statement Friday.

    Operation Cumberland, which was led by Danish law enforcement, is one of the world’s first cases involving this kind of child abuse material, which Europol said made it “exceptionally challenging for investigators.”

    The operation spanned 19 countries, including a number of European nations, as well as Australia and New Zealand, according to the statement.

    The case began when a Danish man was arrested in November 2024, Europol said. The man allegedly produced AI-generated child sexual abuse material, then distributed it on an online platform he ran. Users would pay to access the platform and “watch children being abused,” Europol said.

    Some 273 suspects were identified, with more arrests expected to take place in the coming weeks, the agency said.

    Those already arrested were “part of a criminal group” whose members distributed fully AI-generated images of minors, it alleged.

    “These artificially generated images are so easily created that they can be produced by individuals with criminal intent, even without substantial technical knowledge,” Catherine De Bolle, Europol’s Executive Director, said in the statement.

    “This contributes to the growing prevalence of child sexual abuse material, and as the volume increases, it becomes progressively more challenging for investigators to identify offenders or victims,” she added.

    Even though the content investigated in Operation Cumberland was “fully artificial” with “no real victim depicted,” AI-generated child sexual abuse material “still contributes to the objectification and sexualization of children,” the statement read.

    The law enforcement agency will soon be launching an online campaign that will highlight “the consequences of using AI for illegal purposes,” it added.

    This post appeared first on cnn.com

    As consumers face skyrocketing egg prices, US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reports an increase of people attempting to smuggle eggs across the border from Mexico.

    The CBP’s San Diego Field Office reported Thursday seeing a 158% increase in egg interceptions since the fiscal year of 2024.

    Egg prices have jumped to all-time highs due in part to an outbreak of avian flu, or bird flu, that has been afflicting egg-laying hens in the US since 2022. Across the past three years, about 166 million birds have been affected by the deadly avian flu, according to the US Agriculture Department.

    “It is critical that we keep our traveling public informed to safeguard our agricultural industry while continuing to facilitate legitimate trade and travel,” Sidney Aki, CBP director of field operations in San Diego said in a statement Thursday.

    Further east in Texas, El Paso area CBP not only reported busting 64 pounds of methamphetamine but “CBP agriculture specialists issued 16 civil penalties totaling almost $4,000 linked to the attempted smuggling of prohibited agriculture and food products including raw eggs,” the CBP said in a press release on February 21.

    The director of field operations for the CBP’s Laredo, Texas, office posted a video on X this week warning people not to import eggs saying, “The Laredo Field Office along with CBP would like to remind the public that it is prohibited to import raw/fresh eggs, raw chicken, or live birds.”

    Travelers are required to declare all agricultural products to CBP officers and agriculture specialists or face fines of up to $10,000.

    Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins announced on Wednesday a plan to invest $1 billion in strategies to rein in soaring egg prices. Yet in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, Rollins acknowledged that it “won’t erase the problem overnight.” Rather, she said the egg market won’t stabilize for another “three to six months.”

    The average cost of a dozen eggs in January was $4.95, almost double the price from a year prior and surpassing a record high, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    This post appeared first on cnn.com

    Fatima Tawfeeq, 63, has lived through numerous Israeli military operations in the occupied West Bank. She witnessed Israel’s takeover of the Palestinian territory in 1967 and lived through Israel’s crackdown during the first and second intifadas, the fierce Palestinian uprisings against Israeli control.

    But this is the first time she’s had to flee her home in Nur Shams. She says Israeli forces expelled her from it earlier this month and converted it into a military barracks.

    Tawfeeq and her family are among roughly 40,000 Palestinians who’ve been displaced from their homes since Israel launched an expanded military campaign in the West Bank in late January, almost immediately after the Gaza ceasefire began.

    The Israeli military says it is targeting Palestinian militant groups who have mounted attacks on Israeli soldiers and civilians, but Palestinians and human rights groups say the expanded assault is increasingly indiscriminate – killing civilians and destroying civilian infrastructure in a manner that is consistent with collective punishment.

    Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz has said the current military operation could last until the end of the year and that displaced civilians will not be allowed to return to their homes until the operation is complete.

    “I have instructed the IDF to prepare for a prolonged stay in the camps that have been cleared for the coming year – and not to allow residents to return and terrorism to grow again,” Katz said on Sunday.

    ‘Where are we supposed to go?’

    Tawfeeq, her husband and several of her grandchildren are living alongside other families, among piled up bedrolls and blankets that have been strung up to create family “rooms.” There is no central heating, and the inside of the concrete building they share feels even colder than outside.

    Her 11-year-old grandson Mahmoud passes the time by jumping from a stage in the hall next to their makeshift quarters onto the bedrolls below.

    But he misses home and recalled the moment Israeli forces ordered his family and their neighbors to leave their homes at around 2:30 a.m. earlier this month.

    “The Israeli military came and started calling on the loudspeakers,” he said. “So everyone started to gather their belongings and started leaving.”

    Mahmoud’s mother rushed him out of the house.

    “I didn’t have time to pack anything,” he said. “I didn’t take anything with me. I left with the clothes I am wearing today.”

    As Mahmoud recounts the events of that night, his 9-year-old sister Rou’ya begins to tear up. Amid the trauma of their displacement, their mother has had to leave them to take their younger brother to the hospital.

    “I want mama,” Rou’ya says, crying.

    Rou’ya explains that she was terrified of the military. She had never seen Israeli soldiers up close before and feared that the soldiers would take their home and give it to Israeli settlers.

    Their grandmother, forced from her own home, worries what a year-long operation will mean for her and her family, becoming emotional as she thinks of being separated from her other grandchildren.

    “Eventually, they will hold wedding parties and we will need to leave. Where are we supposed to go?” Tawfeeq asked. “An entire year is difficult.”

    The prospect of prolonged displacement is also straining the resources of communities like Kafr al-Labad that have taken in some of those forced from their homes.

    “We are trying to provide for these needs with the support of local families and benefactors, but frankly, this issue is a significant burden and challenge,” Amin Barghoush, a municipal representative of Kafr al-Labad, said.

    He said support from the Palestinian Authority, which partially controls the West Bank, has been minimal and his community’s goodwill is being stretched amid the prospect of a prolonged crisis.

    “Tulkarem Governorate has become one of the most affected areas. We might have one of the highest refugee populations in the country,” he said. “What we are witnessing is comprehensive destruction, an economic blockade and the devastation of infrastructure in the refugee camps.”

    Widespread destruction

    The road into the Nur Shams camp, established to house Palestinian refugees in 1952, is now unrecognizable. The pavement has been dug up by the Israeli military’s D-9 bulldozers – mounds of asphalt and dirt piled up on the sides of roads, often pouring into shops and homes. Sewage seeps into the muddy streets.

    Inside the camp, the destruction is even more stark. Some residential buildings have been demolished; a hole is punched into the side of a mosque; chunks of broken concrete now bare the inside of someone’s home to the outside world.

    In sections of the camp – and the same can be said of Jenin and Tulkarem camps – the destruction is reminiscent of what the Israeli military has wrought on the Gaza Strip.

    Indeed, Israel’s military operations in the West Bank are increasingly resembling those in Gaza. Drone strikes and airstrikes are now regularly carried out here where they were once a rarity. And for the first time in more than two decades, the Israeli military this week deployed tanks to the West Bank.

    In Jenin camp, the Israeli military has conducted dozens of controlled explosions, destroying buildings where it says its troops located explosives and other “terrorist infrastructure.” It is a claim Jenin’s mayor Mohammad Jarrar disputes, saying many were residential buildings where dozens of families lived.

    Israeli forces have killed 66 people in the West Bank since the start of the latest operation on January 21, according to figures from the Palestinian Ministry of Health, and local officials say the majority of those killed have been civilians.

    The Israeli military says it is targeting militants and said Friday that it has killed “70 terrorists” since the beginning of the operation.

    The overall impact of the Israeli operation on civilians, though, is indisputable.

    Inside the chilly wedding hall, Rou’ya longs for the toys she would arrange in her room before reading them stories. Mahmoud says he craves the privacy of his own bedroom. They both want to go home.

    “Even if they demolish our house, we will rebuild it,” Mahmoud said. “The camp is better. We have our family and our friends.”

    This post appeared first on cnn.com

    A fish under a roof. A stick figure without a head. A series of lines that look like a garden rake.

    These symbols are part of an entirely undeciphered script from a sophisticated ancient civilization thousands of years old. And they remain an enduring mystery that has sparked heated debates, death threats to researchers, and cash prizes for the coveted answer.

    The latest such prize was offered last month by the chief minister of one Indian state: $1 million to anyone who can decode the script of the Indus Valley civilization, which stretched across what is now Pakistan and northern India.

    “A really important question about the pre-history of South Asia could potentially be settled if we are able to completely decipher the script,” said Rajesh P. N. Rao, a computer science professor at the University of Washington who has worked on it for more than a decade.

    If deciphered, the script could offer a glimpse into a Bronze Age civilization believed to rival ancient Egypt and Mesopotamia. Some believe this vast domain held millions of people, with cities that boasted advanced urban planning, standardized weights and measures, and extensive trade routes.

    Perhaps more importantly, it might help answer fundamental questions about who the Indus Valley people and their descendants were – a politically fraught debate about the disputed roots of modern India and its indigenous inhabitants.

    “Whichever group is trying to claim that civilization would get to claim that they were among the first to have urban planning, this amazing trade, and they were navigating seas to do global trade,” Rao said.

    “It has a lot of cachet if you can claim that, ‘Those were our people who were doing that.’”

    Why is it so hard to decipher?

    Though the script has remained unsolved since its earliest samples were published in 1875, we do know a little about Indus Valley culture itself – thanks to archaeological excavations of major cities like Mohenjo-daro, located in what is now Pakistan’s Sindh province, about 510 kilometers (317 miles) northeast of Karachi.

    These cities were designed along a grid system like New York City or Barcelona, and were equipped with drainage and water management systems – features which at that point were “unparalleled in history,” one paper said.

    Throughout the second and third millennia BC, Indus merchants traded with people across the Persian Gulf and the Middle East, their ships bringing copper ingots, pearls, spices and ivory. They crafted gold and silver jewelry, and built faraway settlements and colonies.

    Eventually around 1800 BC – still more than 1,000 years before the birth of ancient Rome – the civilization collapsed and people migrated to smaller villages. Some believe climate change was the driving factor, with evidence of long droughts, shifting temperatures, and unpredictable rainfall that could have damaged agriculture in those final few centuries.

    But what we know about the Indus civilization is limited compared with the wealth of information available about its contemporaries, such as ancient Egypt, Mesopotamia, and the Maya. That is largely because of the undeciphered script, which was found on artifacts such as pottery and stone seals.

    There are a few reasons it’s been so hard to decode. First, there aren’t that many artifacts to analyze – archaeologists have only found about 4,000 inscriptions, compared with an estimated 5 million words available in ancient Egyptian, which includes hieroglyphics and other variants.

    Many of those Indus relics are very small, often stone seals measuring one square inch – meaning the script on them is short, most sequences containing only four or five symbols.

    Crucially, there isn’t yet a bilingual artifact containing both the Indus Valley script and its translation into another language, as the Rosetta Stone does for ancient Egyptian and ancient Greek. And we don’t have clues such as names of recognized Indus rulers that could help crack the script – the way the names of Cleopatra and Ptolemy helped decipher ancient Egyptian.

    There are some things that experts largely agree on. Most believe the script was written from right to left, and many speculate it was used for both religious and economic purposes, such as marking items for trade. There are even some interpretations of signs that multiple experts agree on – a headless stick figure representing a person, for instance.

    However, until a Rosetta Stone equivalent is found, these remain unproven theories. “No unanimity has been reached even on the basic issues,” wrote Indus experts Jagat Pati Joshi and Asko Parpola in a 1987 book that catalogued hundreds of seals and inscriptions.

    Even decades later, “not a single sign is deciphered yet,” said Nisha Yadav, a researcher at the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research in Mumbai, who worked with Rao on the project and has studied the script for nearly 20 years.

    Controversial theories

    For some people, solving the script isn’t just about intellectual curiosity or academic study – it’s a high-stakes existential question.

    That’s because they believe it could settle the controversy of who exactly the Indus people were, and which way migration flowed, in or out of India.

    There are two main groups vying to claim the Indus civilization. One group argues the script has links to Indo-European languages such as ancient Sanskrit, which spawned many languages now spoken across northern India.

    Most scholars believe Aryan migrants from Central Asia brought Indo-European languages to India. But this group argues it was the other way around – that Sanskrit and its relatives originated in the Indus Valley civilization and spread out toward Europe, said Rao.

    He described their claim as: “Everything was within India to begin with … Nothing came from outside.”

    Then there’s a second group that believes the script is linked to the Dravidian language family now largely spoken across South India – suggesting Dravidian languages were there first, widely spoken across the region before being pushed out by the arrival of Aryans in the north.

    M. K. Stalin, the southern Tamil Nadu state leader offering the $1 million prize, is among those who believe the Indus language was a Dravidian ancestor – which Rao described as the more “traditional” theory, though there are respected scholars on both sides.

    Then there are some like Indus expert Iravatham Mahadevan, who argued there’s little point in the debate since the distinction between northern Aryans and southern Dravidians isn’t clear anyway.

    “There are no Dravidian people or Aryan people – just like both Pakistanis and Indians are racially very similar,” he said in a 1998 interview.

    “We are both the product of a very long period of intermarriage, there have been migrations … You cannot now racially segregate any element of the Indian population.”

    Still, the question is fraught. In a 2011 TED Talk, Rao said he received hate mail after publishing some of his findings. Other researchers have described receiving death threats – including Steve Farmer, who along with his colleagues stunned the academic world in 2004 by arguing the Indus script doesn’t represent a language at all, but is merely a set of symbols like those we’d see on modern traffic signs.

    How they’re trying to crack it

    Despite these tensions, the script has long enamored researchers and amateur enthusiasts, with some dedicating their careers to the conundrum.

    Some, like Parpola – one of the eminent experts in the field – have tried figuring out the meaning behind certain signs. For instance, he suggests, in many Dravidian languages the words for “fish” and “star” sound the same, and stars were often used to symbolize deities in other ancient scripts – so Indus symbols that look like fish might represent gods.

    Other researchers, like Rao and Yadav, are more focused on finding patterns within the script. To do this, they train computer models to analyze a string of signs – then take away certain signs until the computer can accurately guess what the missing symbols are.

    This is useful for several reasons: We can better understand patterns in how the script works – like how the letter “Q” is most often followed by “U” in English – and it can help researchers fill in the gaps for artifacts with damaged or missing signs.

    Significantly, knowing these common patterns can help identify sequences that don’t follow the rules. Yadav pointed to seals found in West Asia, far from the Indus Valley; while they used the same Indus signs, they followed entirely different patterns, suggesting the script may have evolved to be used across different languages, similar to the Latin alphabet.

    Then there are your average Joes, fans of the puzzle who want to try their hand at solving it. With the announcement of the $1 million prize – though no clear information about where people can apply for it – amateurs have flocked to experts to eagerly share their theories.

    “I used to get about one or two emails a week. But now, after the prize was sent out, I pretty much get emails every day,” Rao said. They come from all sorts of people around the world, writing in different languages – with even families working on the puzzle together.

    After so many years, Rao swings between optimism and resignation. Any further breakthrough would require international multi-disciplinary teamwork, massive funding, and even political negotiations to allow excavations in border areas disputed by India and Pakistan, he said.

    But on good days, he’s still hopeful. So is Yadav, who has been fascinated by the Indus Valley civilization since learning about in the fourth grade. Even without the promise of a solution, the beauty of the task draws her back year after year.

    “I look forward to working on the problem every day,” she said. “If we decipher the script, it will open a window into the lives and ideology of Indus people. We will get to know a lot of things about our ancestors … what they were thinking, what were they focused on?”

    These details are “just hiding from us today,” she added. “That keeps me glued to the problem rather than anything else.”

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    Western leaders scrambled to back Ukraine after Friday’s acrimonious meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky deepened the already yawning fault lines between Washington and many of its key allies.

    The remarkable Oval Office exchange highlights a tricky balancing act facing Western capitals since Trump’s return to office in January: maintaining steadfast support for Zelensky and Kyiv against Russian aggression, while not alienating a famously transactional president who appears increasingly sympathetic to President Valdimir Putin, tolerates little criticism and is upturning decades of transatlantic security alliances.

    UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who met Trump in the White House on Thursday in one of the trickiest visits by a British leader to Washington in decades, spoke with both the US president and Zelensky following their shouting match, according to a Downing Street spokeswoman.

    Starmer “retains his unwavering support for Ukraine and is playing his part to find a path forward to a lasting peace, based on sovereignty and security for Ukraine,” the spokeswoman said.

    The UK is set to host a summit of European leaders on Sunday to discuss support for Kyiv. Zelensky is expected to attend what’s likely to be a much more welcoming setting for the Ukrainian leader, with Starmer having urged Trump against accepting any peace deal in Ukraine that would “reward” Russia or its allies.

    Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, a key Trump ally in Europe, also called for a summit with the US and European nations to discuss the war in Ukraine, saying that division makes the West weaker.

    Europe’s leaders and officials have been blindsided by a staggering collapse in American support for Ukraine in the past weeks, after almost three years of ironclad backing by the previous administration of Joe Biden. Many still cannot understand why US President Donald Trump has turned so furiously on Zelensky and conceded key concessions to Putin before even starting talks.

    Zelensky has spoken to French President Emmanuel Macron and to European Council President António Costa following his scathing exchange with Trump at the White House, according to a Ukrainian source with knowledge of the situation.

    “There is an aggressor, which is Russia, and an attacked people, which is Ukraine,” Macron later said in a statement.

    “Nobody wants peace more than the Ukrainians do,” wrote German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on X. “Therefore we are working on a common path to a lasting and just peace. Ukraine can rely on Germany – and on Europe.”

    Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, said in a statement that it’s “clear that the free world needs a new leader.” European Union leaders also issued a joint statement urging Zelensky to “be strong.”

    Zelensky has also spoken to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, a source said.

    “Ukraine, you’ll never walk alone,” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda said, while Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna cautioned that if “Ukraine stops fighting, there will be no Ukraine.”

    There was swift vocal support too from key US allies outside Europe.

    Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his country would “continue to stand with Ukraine.”

    “Russia illegally and unjustifiably invaded Ukraine. For three years now, Ukrainians have fought with courage and resilience. Their fight for democracy, freedom, and sovereignty is a fight that matters to us all,” Trudeau wrote on X.

    Australia’s prime minister reiterated his country’s support for Kyiv, saying it will “continue to stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

    “We stand unequivocally with Ukraine in their struggle, because we regard that as a struggle for the upholding of international law,” Anthony Albanese said.

    Ukraine, you’ll never walk alone’

    A notable exception to the wave of European solidarity was Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a far-right populist and Trump ally, who took to X to stand with the US president.

    “Strong men make peace, weak men make war,” Orban wrote. “Today President (Trump) stood bravely for peace. Even if it was difficult for many to digest. Thank you, Mr. President!”

    The tense exchange with Trump boosted Zelensky’s backing among many at home, with Ukraine’s lawmakers rallying behind Kyiv’s leader.

    Merezhko said there’s “absolutely no doubt” that the Ukrainian parliament will back Zelensky.

    “We are united behind our president but at the same time, we hope that wisdom and common sense will prevail.”

    Ukraine’s military, who have spent more than three years holding back a far larger Russian force with the help of US and European aid, also maintained a message of defiance, at least on public channels.

    “Trump understands the aggressive manner of negotiations and is trying to crush Zelensky,” said Stanislav Buniatov, another Ukrainian military officer, in a Telegram post. “There would have been no heated talks if Trump had offered at least a ceasefire on the contact line with minimal amendments.”

    One military officer, who goes by the callsign Aleks, said on Telegram he doesn’t “give a damn” about the kind of peace Trump offers.

    “It’s better to fight to death than to freeze the war and then be drained again in three years,” he said.

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