Author

admin

Browsing

In this video, Mary Ellen spotlights the areas driving market momentum following Taiwan Semiconductor’s record-breaking earnings report. She analyzes continued strength in semiconductors, utilities, industrials, and AI-driven sectors, plus highlights new leadership in robotics and innovation-focused ETFs like ARK. From there, Mary Ellen breaks down weakness in health care and housing stocks, shows how to refine trade entries using hourly charts, and compares today’s rally to past market surges. Watch as she explores setups in silver and examines individual stocks like Nvidia, BlackRock, and State Street.

This video originally premiered on July 18, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

Sector Rotation Stalls, Tech Remains King

Despite a slight rise in the S&P 500 over the past week, the sector rotation landscape is presenting an intriguing picture. For the first time in recent memory, we’re seeing absolutely no changes in the composition of the sector ranking — not just in the top five, but across the board. Will this stability kick off a return to a period of more significant trends in relative strength and a return to outperformance for the portfolio?

  1. (1) Technology – (XLK)
  2. (2) Industrials – (XLI)
  3. (3) Communication Services – (XLC)
  4. (4) Financials – (XLF)
  5. (5) Materials – (XLB)
  6. (6) Utilities – (XLU)
  7. (7) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)
  8. (8) Consumer Staples – (XLP)
  9. (9) Real-Estate – (XLRE)
  10. (10) Energy – (XLE)
  11. (11) Healthcare – (XLV)

Technology

The tech sector continues to flex its muscles, moving up on the price ratio scale while maintaining a stable momentum around 103. This sustained strength is a clear indication that tech remains the sector to beat in the current market environment.

On the daily RRG, we’re seeing a nice rotation backup for tech while inside the weakening quadrant, a sign of strength that confirms the move on the weekly RRG. The raw RS line for tech is climbing almost straight up, reflecting very strong RRG lines. There might be a slight loss of momentum, but make no mistake, tech is still the strongest player in the game.

Industrials

Industrials is currently rotating out of the leading quadrant and sits on the verge of moving into weakening. However, it’s crucial to note that it still holds the second-highest rank based on the RS ratio. This positioning suggests that the odds for a rotation back up towards the leading quadrant are still in play.

The daily RRG shows industrials confirming its strength with a move further into the leading quadrant, moving up on the RS ratio scale while keeping stable momentum.

After breaking out of overhead resistance, the price chart continues higher, and a new higher low is visible on the relative strength line. This keeps the RS ratio line at elevated levels, though the RS momentum line is still moving lower just above 100. If this RS line can maintain a series of higher highs or higher lows, I expect the RS momentum line to bottom out soon and follow the RS ratio higher.

Communication Services

The communication services sector is positioned inside the weakening quadrant on the weekly RRG but has hooked back to the left and is now even lower on the RS ratio scale. It’s moving towards the lagging corner, which is a concerning trend for its top 5 position.

On the daily RRG, communication services have moved into the lagging quadrant. It has started to slow down on the negative momentum, but we need a rotation back up on this daily RRG into the improving quadrant and back to leading to have that weekly tail curl back up to its leading quadrant as well.

The price chart shows the sector holding up after breaking higher, with a pullback now finding support at the level of old resistance, respecting the rule that old resistance is expected to work as support going forward. The problem child here is the raw RS line, which has fallen below its rising support line. This is taking its toll on the RRG lines, with both RS ratio and RS momentum rolling over and starting to move down.

Financials

Financials are inside the lagging quadrant on the weekly RRG, moving at a negative heading. This means that a significant amount of strength is needed from the daily tail to keep this sector within the top five.

On the price chart, financials are playing around with overhead resistance around 52, with a small consolidation area and a pennant-like formation suggesting more upside potential on the price chart.

However, this is not confirmed on the relative strength chart, where the RS line has broken its rising trend and is moving lower.

Materials

Materials are also inside the lagging quadrant on the weekly RRG and traveling a negative heading, like financials. Here, also, strength is needed from the daily teams to keep the sector inside the top five.

Materials are holding up on the price chart after a break that could be described as a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern. The relative strength line remains contained within the boundaries of its falling channel, but hugging the falling resistance line.

We need a break higher to turn that trend around. Only an upward breakout of that relative downtrend will turn the RRG lines around and provide a lifeline for materials to maintain its position inside the top five.

Portfolio Performance

The portfolio continues to lag the S&P 500, currently sitting around 8% behind. It seems to be stabilizing for now, but it’s not exactly what we want, of course. A drawdown of around 8-10% is not unprecedented, based on historical backtests; however, it’s somewhat disappointing that it occurs right when we begin operating in a semi-live environment.

That said, the fact that we’re now stable with no changes after a period of significant volatility over recent months could be a sign that we’re ready to enter a new period with stable relative trends that can bring the portfolio back to outperformance.

#StayAlert and have a great week. –Julius


The Nifty traded in a broadly sideways and range-bound manner throughout the previous week and ended the week with a modest decline. The Index oscillated within a narrow 276-point range, between 25144.60 on the higher end and 24918.65 on the lower end, before settling mildly lower. The India VIX declined by 3.60% over the week to 11.39, suggesting continued complacency in the markets. On a weekly basis, Nifty ended with a net loss of 181.45 points or (-0.72%).

The Nifty is presently consolidating just below a key resistance zone after attempting a breakout above a rising channel. This zone, between 25100 and 25350, has proven to be a supply area where profit-taking has emerged. While the broader trend remains intact and the Nifty is above key moving averages, it is still within a complex zone of consolidation. This pause in momentum comes after a sharp up move from the lows near 21743 in April. A strong breakout above the 25265 –25350 zone, with a closing confirmation, may resume the uptrend. Conversely, a sustained move below 24750 could trigger incremental weakness and drag the Nifty towards lower supports.

 As we head into the new week, the markets may see a cautious start amid the current range-bound setup. The immediate resistance is at 25150, followed by 25400. On the lower side, the key support zones are placed at 24750 and further near 24380.

The weekly RSI stands at 56.54 and remains neutral without showing any divergence against price. It has made a fresh 14-period low, which is bearish. The MACD remains above its signal line on the weekly chart, continuing to indicate a positive crossover. No significant candlestick formation was observed for the week.

From a pattern analysis perspective, Nifty is trading just below the upper bound of a rising channel that it had briefly broken out of. With the Index slipping below the support levels of 25000-25150, it faces resistance at this zone again, failing to follow through on the breakout. Price action is still above the 20-week and 50-week moving averages, maintaining a bullish undertone from a medium-term perspective. However, the ongoing sideways action indicates a lack of fresh directional conviction.

Given the current technical structure, it would be prudent for traders to remain selective and protect profits at higher levels. The markets are not displaying signs of aggressive strength, and unless there is a convincing move above 25350, a stock-specific approach with tight risk management is advised. Traders may avoid aggressive fresh buying until a directional move is clearly established. Cautious optimism, with a focus on stocks exhibiting stronger relative strength, is the ideal approach for the coming week.


Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. 

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty Media and the Metal Index have rolled inside the leading quadrant. The Midcap 100, Realty, and PSU Bank Index are also inside the leading quadrant. These groups are likely to relatively outperform the broader Nifty 500 Index.

The Nifty Bank, PSE, and the Financial Services Index are inside the weakening quadrant. They may experience a decline in relative performance compared to the broader markets.

The Nifty Services Sector Index, Pharma, Consumption, and the FMCG Index continue to languish inside the lagging quadrant. Among these groups, the Pharma Index shows improvement in its relative momentum against the broader markets.

The IT Index is inside the improving quadrant; it continues to improve its relative momentum against the benchmark. The Auto Index, which is also inside the improving quadrant, is seen deteriorating in relative momentum.


Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  


Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

CHICAGO — Cardi B was part of Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show. What she did exactly, well, that turned into a perplexing question for two major prediction markets.

At least one Kalshi trader filed a complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over how the prediction market handled Sunday’s appearance by the Grammy-winning rapper. The result of a similar event contract on Polymarket also drew the ire of some users on that platform.

Prediction markets provide an opportunity to trade — or wager — on the result of future events. The markets are comprised of typically yes-or-no questions called event contracts, with the prices connected to what traders are willing to pay, which theoretically indicates the perceived probability of an event occurring.

The buy-in for each contract ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what traders think could happen.

More than $47.3 million was wagered on Kalshi’s market for “ Who will perform at the Big Game? ” A Polymarket contract had more than $10 million in volume.

Celebrities including Pedro Pascal, Karol G and Cardi B during the Super Bowl halftime show on Sunday.Kevin Mazur / Getty Images for Roc Nation

Cardi B joined singers Karol G and Young Miko and actors Jessica Alba and Pedro Pascal on a starry front porch during the halftime spectacle. She danced to the music, but it was unclear whether she was singing along during the show, which included performances by Ricky Martin and Lady Gaga.

Due to “ambiguity over whether or not Cardi B’s attendance at the 2026 Super Bowl halftime show constituted a qualifying ‘performance,’” Kalshi cited one of its rules in settling the market at the last price before trading was paused: $0.74 for No holders and $0.26 for Yes holders. The platform returned all the money to its users.

Polymarket’s contract was resolved as Cardi B had performed, but the yes was disputed. A final decision on the contract is expected to be announced on Wednesday.

In the CFTC complaint — first reported by the Event Horizon newsletter and posted by Front Office Sports — the trader alleges that Kalshi violated the Commodity Exchange Act with how it resolved the Cardi B contract. The trader — a Yes holder — is seeking $3,700.

A CFTC spokesman declined comment on Wednesday.

The Super Bowl capped a big NFL season for prediction markets.

Kalshi reported a daily record high of more than $1 billion in total trading volume on the day of the game, an increase of more than 2,700% compared to last year’s Super Bowl. The season-long total for all Super Bowl winner futures was $828.6 million, up more than 2,000% from last year.

The increased activity on Sunday caused some deposit issues. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara posted on X on Monday that the “traffic spike was way bigger than our most optimistic forecasts.” She said the platform had reimbursed processing fees on the effected deposits and added credits to users who experienced delays.

Robinhood Markets highlighted the strength of its prediction markets when it announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and full 2025 on Tuesday.

“I think we are just at the beginning of a prediction market super cycle that could drive trillions in annual volume over time,” CEO Vlad Tenev said during an earnings call. “This year is going to be a big year. Olympics are going on right now. World Cup coming in the summer.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

In this video, Mary Ellen spotlights the areas driving market momentum following Taiwan Semiconductor’s record-breaking earnings report. She analyzes continued strength in semiconductors, utilities, industrials, and AI-driven sectors, plus highlights new leadership in robotics and innovation-focused ETFs like ARK. From there, Mary Ellen breaks down weakness in health care and housing stocks, shows how to refine trade entries using hourly charts, and compares today’s rally to past market surges. Watch as she explores setups in silver and examines individual stocks like Nvidia, BlackRock, and State Street.

This video originally premiered on July 18, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

The operator of roughly 180 Eddie Bauer stores across the U.S. and Canada has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, blaming declining sales and a litany of other industry headwinds.

The bankruptcy filing marks the third time in a little over two decades for the storied-but-now-tired brand that began as a Seattle fishing shop, later outfitted the first American to climb Mount Everest and made thousands of newfangled down jackets and sleeping bags for the military during World War II.

Eddie Bauer LLC said Monday it had entered into a restructuring pact with its secured lenders as it made the filing in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of New Jersey.

Most Eddie Bauer retail and outlet stores in the U.S. and Canada will remain open as the company winds down certain locations. It noted that it will conduct a court-supervised sales process, and if a sale can’t be executed, it will begin a wind-down of its U.S. and Canadian operations.

“This is not an easy decision,” said Marc Rosen, CEO of Catalyst Brands, which maintains the license to operate Eddie Bauer stores in the U.S. and Canada. “However, this restructuring is the best way to optimize value for the retail company’s stakeholders and also ensure Catalyst Brands remains profitable and with strong liquidity and cash flow.”

Eddie Bauer’s stores outside of the U.S. and Canada are operated by other licensees, are not included in the Chapter 11 filings, and will stay open, according to the release.

Authentic Brands Group continues to own the intellectual property associated with the Eddie Bauer brand and may license the brand to other operators, the company said. The operations of other brands in the Catalyst Brands portfolio are not affected by this filing and will continue in the normal course, according to the company.

Eddie Bauer’s e-commerce and wholesale operations will also not be impacted by the wind down, as they are operated by a company called Outdoor 5, LLC. That was a transition it made in January and became effective Feb. 2.

Eddie Bauer joins a growing list of U.S. retailers this year that are closing stores, as companies reorganize under bankruptcy protection or pare down their operations to focus on the most profitable businesses.

The parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue said last month that it was seeking bankruptcy protection, buffeted by rising competition and the massive debt it took on to buy its rival in the luxury sector, Neiman Marcus, just over a year ago. A few days later, the parent company said it was closing most of its Saks Off 5th stores.

Amazon said earlier this month that it was closing almost all of its Amazon Go and Amazon Fresh locations within days as it narrows its focus on food delivery and its grocery chain, Whole Foods Market.

Eddie Bauer’s namesake founder — an avid outdoorsman — started the company in Seattle in 1920 as Bauer’s Sports Shop, according to the brand’s website. In 1945, after making more than 50,000 jackets for the military, it launched a mail-order catalog.

“Bauer’s Sports Shop was not just a place where people purchased clothing and gear, it was a community hub where folks gathered to share their wisdom, learn, and talk about their experiences in the outdoors,” the website says.

The company created an American goose-down insulated jacket, known as the “Skyliner,” in 1936, and it became the company’s first patented jacket. It also outfitted the first American to climb Mount Everest — James W. Whittaker — with an Eddie Bauer parka in 1963.

After Bauer retired in 1968 and sold the business to his partner, the outdoor brand shifted more toward casual apparel and was bought by General Mills Inc. in 1971 and then by Spiegel Inc. in 1988. After Spiegel filed for bankruptcy in 2003 and most of its assets were sold, the remainder of the company was reorganized in 2005 as Eddie Bauer Holdings Inc.

In June 2009, Eddie Bauer filed bankruptcy and was acquired by Golden State Capital, the following month. In 2021, it was acquired by Authentic Brands and SPARC Group LLC.

A year ago, Catalyst was formed by the merger of SPARC and JCPenney, which Simon Property Group and fellow mall landlord Brookfield bought out of bankruptcy.

Rosen noted that even prior to the inception of Catalyst Brands last year, Eddie Bauer was in a “challenged situation.”

“Over the past year, these challenges have been exacerbated by various headwinds, including increased costs of doing business due to inflation, ongoing tariff uncertainty, and other factors,” he said.

He noted that while Catalyst’s leadership was able to make improvements in product development and marketing, those changes could not be implemented fast enough to fully address the problems created over several years.

Eddie Bauer had nearly 600 stores at its peak in 2001, according to CoStar Group Inc., a commercial real estate data firm.

In a note published earlier this month, Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData Retail, wrote that while the Eddie Bauer name is “well known,” the brand hasn’t kept pace with rivals like Swedish outdoor brand Fjallraven and Canadian label Arc’teryx. He also cited issues with quality deteriorating, which, for an outdoor brand measured by the performance of its products, is very problematic.

“And for many younger shoppers, the brand is seen as somewhat old-fashioned and a bit irrelevant,” he said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

In this video, Mary Ellen spotlights the areas driving market momentum following Taiwan Semiconductor’s record-breaking earnings report. She analyzes continued strength in semiconductors, utilities, industrials, and AI-driven sectors, plus highlights new leadership in robotics and innovation-focused ETFs like ARK. From there, Mary Ellen breaks down weakness in health care and housing stocks, shows how to refine trade entries using hourly charts, and compares today’s rally to past market surges. Watch as she explores setups in silver and examines individual stocks like Nvidia, BlackRock, and State Street.

This video originally premiered on July 18, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.