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The biggest obstacle to resolving Russia’s war in Ukraine is the status of Crimea and the four mainland Ukrainian regions occupied by Russia, said US special envoy Steve Witkoff, calling them “the elephant in the room” in peace talks.

In a long interview with podcast host Tucker Carlson, Witkoff – who also revealed Russia’s President Putin had commissioned a portrait of Donald Trump and sent it to him – said the administration was making progress “that no one thought was possible” with Russia, but that issues of territory still need ironing out.

The four mainland regions, which Witkoff appeared to struggle to name and needed prompting from Carlson, were illegally annexed during Russia’s full-scale invasion and Kyiv vehemently opposes giving them up.

The Kremlin has since staged referenda on joining Russia in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, which Kyiv and the international community decried as a propaganda exercise, but which Witkoff claimed was evidence of their desire to split from Ukraine.

“They’re Russian-speaking,” Witkoff said of the four eastern regions. “There have been referendums where the overwhelming majority of the people have indicated that they want to be under Russian rule.”

Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy who also plays a key role in talks with Russia, said the “constitutional issues within Ukraine as to what they can concede… with regard to territory” had become “the elephant in the room” during negotiations. Talks are set to resume Monday in Saudi Arabia, with US officials set to meet officials from both Russia and Ukraine.

“The Russians are de facto in control of these territories. The question is: Will the world acknowledge that those are Russian territories?” Witkoff asked. “Can (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelensky survive politically if he acknowledges this? This is the central issue in the conflict.”

Zelensky stressed last weekend that Ukraine’s position “is that we do not recognize the occupied Ukrainian territories as Russian.”

The US raised the issue during talks with Ukrainian delegates in the Saudi city of Jeddah, Zelensky said, adding that he hopes the question can be resolved during later peace talks, rather than discussions over an initial ceasefire. “It is dragging out the process for a long, long time,” he said.

‘Gracious’ Putin

Witkoff said he was impressed by how “gracious” the Russian leader has been during the pair’s discussions, praising him as “smart” and “straightforward.”

Before meeting Putin in Moscow, Witkoff said someone in the Trump administration warned him to “watch it, because he’s an ex-KGB guy,” referring to Putin’s former career in the Soviet Union’s security agency.

Witkoff said he downplayed the person’s fears, saying Putin’s background in the agency was a measure of his intelligence. “In the old days, the only people who went into the KGB were the smartest people in the nation… He’s a super smart guy,” he recalled saying.

“I don’t regard Putin as a bad guy,” Witkoff said, saying it was “gracious” of the Russian leader to receive him in Moscow for talks earlier this month.

That meeting “got personal,” he said, recalling how Putin “had commissioned a beautiful portrait of President Trump from the leading Russian artist,” which Witkoff took home to the president.

Witkoff said also that, following the assassination attempt against Trump in September, Putin said that he “went to his local church and met with his priest and prayed” for Trump, “not because he… could become the president of the United States, but because he had a friendship with him.”

Trump was “clearly touched” by Putin’s story and the portrait, Witkoff said.

Witkoff implied that resolving the war in Ukraine could lead to cooperation on a broader range of issues, and that the two sides were thinking about “integrating their energy policies in the Arctic,” sharing sea lanes, collaborating on artificial intelligence and sending liquefied natural gas “into Europe together.”

“Who doesn’t want to have a world where Russia and the United States are doing, collaboratively, good things together?” he asked.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Pope Francis will be discharged on Sunday from the hospital where he has spent more than a month being treated for double pneumonia, Dr. Sergio Alfieri, the head of the team taking care of the pontiff announced.

“The Holy Father will be discharged from tomorrow in stable clinical condition with a prescription to partially continue drug therapy and a convalescence and rest period of at least two months,” Alfieri told reporters at a news conference at Gemelli on Saturday.

“Today we are happy to say that tomorrow he will be at home,” he added.

Francis has been in hospital since February 14.

The pontiff is also expected to also make his first public appearance on Sunday at the hospital’s balcony before making his way back to the Casa Santa Marta, his residence since the 2013 conclave, according to Vatican spokesman Matteo Bruni.

The 88-year-old pontiff will offer a blessing and greeting to well-wishers at the end of Sunday’s Angelus prayer, the Vatican press office said earlier on Saturday. Francis usually leads the prayer and offers a reflection each week, but has not done so for the past five Sundays.

The pope’s hospitalization has been his longest stay in Gemelli since his election 12 years ago. While he has not been seen in weeks, his presence has been felt with the Vatican releasing a short audio message from the pope as well as a photo last weekend showing him praying at that hospital’s chapel.

News of his discharge comes after the Vatican said this week that the Pope’s condition appeared to be improving, adding that his pneumonia is considered under control.

Last week, the pope approved a new three-year reform process for the Catholic Church, sending a strong signal he intends to remain in the post despite his lengthy stint in hospital.

Reforms on the table include how to give greater roles to women in the Catholic Church, including ordaining them as deacons, and the greater inclusion of non-clergy members in governance and decision making.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Iceland’s minister for children and education has resigned after admitting she had a child with a teenager more than three and a half decades ago, according to Icelandic media.

Ásthildur Lóa Thórsdóttir revealed that she had started a relationship with a 15-year-old boy when she was 22 and had a son with him, Iceland’s public broadcaster RUV reported on Thursday.

Thórsdóttir met the boy while working as a counselor for a religious group, the Icelandic broadcaster said, before giving birth to his child when she was 23 and he was 16.

The age of consent is 15, according to the country’s penal code. However, it is illegal for adults to have sexual relations with a child under 18 if they are entrusted to teach them, with perpetrators facing up to 12 years in prison.

The father told RUV he had never seen himself as a victim in this situation, but noted that he was in a difficult place in his life and at home turned to the church group for support.

Iceland’s public broadcaster reported that the relationship was kept secret but that the father was present for the birth of his child and initially allowed contact, but nearly all access was cut off before his son turned 1.

He was however required to pay child support for 18 years.

The young father sought assistance from the Ministry of Justice and the church’s family service to see his child, but Thórsdóttir refused him visitation rights, according to Iceland’s public broadcaster.

Shortly after RUV’s report on Thursday, Thórsdóttir resigned from her ministerial position, the public broadcaster said. She will continue to represent the People’s Party as a member of parliament.

Iceland’s prime minister said Thórsdóttir had met with the country’s three party leaders but it had been her decision to resign, according to RUV.

“We discussed the options together and heard her account of the matter in detail for the first time at that meeting,” Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir said at a news conference Friday, RUV reported. The leader reiterated that Thórsdóttir had swiftly taken responsibility by resigning.

“Of course, this is an unfortunate matter, but it has nothing to do with our work,” Frostadóttir said, adding that the prime minister’s office had not finished investigating the matter since it was brought to their attention a week ago.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Raucous, lightning-paced and brimming with eye-catching fan costumes, the Hong Kong Rugby Sevens is like no other sporting spectacle.

Each spring since 1982, for one rowdy weekend, Hong Kong Stadium – nestled among skyscrapers and lush jungle, and just a lofted drop-kick from the city’s fabled nightlife – has transformed into the Asian financial hub’s biggest and wildest party.

Rugby enthusiasts from all over the world make the pilgrimage to the Hong Kong tournament, the jewel in the crown of the World Rugby Sevens Series circuit – which showcases the shorter, faster and higher-octane version of the traditional 15-a-side game.

It draws teams from rugby powerhouses such as New Zealand, South Africa and Fiji, yet the appeal is never just about the sport. With its carnival atmosphere and legendary party spirit, the three-day event joins other Asian showpieces such as the Singapore Grand Prix and Australian Open in drawing tourists and business travelers alike.

“It’s probably the most fun event that Hong Kong does throughout the year. It’s where everyone comes to party,” said Bill Coker, a 33-year-old teacher and Sevens regular.

This year, however, the revelry will unfold against a very different backdrop.

After more than four decades in the heart of Hong Kong Island, the Sevens is moving across the harbor into a flashy new home on the city’s Kowloon peninsula: a shimmering, 50,000-seat stadium in the brand-new Kai Tak Sports Park.

Officially opened this month, and due to host rock band Coldplay for four nights in April, the sprawling waterfront complex is part of Hong Kong’s bid to reclaim its status as Asia’s premier destination for mega-events, after losing out to rival cities like Singapore and Tokyo in attracting some of the world’s biggest stars.

The nearly $4 billion project is central to Hong Kong’s efforts to revive its economy and international image, following years of stringent pandemic restrictions and a sweeping national security crackdown that fueled an exodus of foreign workers, local professionals and global companies.

John Lee, the city’s leader, hailed the new venue as “a state-of-the-art new stage of Hong Kong.” “Like this very stadium’s retractable roof, the sky is the limit,” he declared at a star-studded opening ceremony.

The new stadium is significantly more spacious, glamorous and high-tech than its dated predecessor, boasting spectacular views of Victoria Harbor and the city’s skyline. Yet, it also sits further from downtown.

While many fans and players are excited about the new venue – designed specifically to enhance the rugby experience – one lingering question remains: Can it preserve the party spirit that has long defined the Hong Kong Sevens?

“Everyone knows that the bar’s going to be pretty high to get that aura it’s created over the years. It’s about whether that aura is passed on from the old stadium,” said former New Zealand captain and sevens Hall of Famer DJ Forbes. “I’m sure everyone – the South Stand in particular – will be doing their best to make the players feel that vibe and energy. It will be interesting to see how it pans out.”

State-of-the-art stadium

Sitting on the former site of Hong Kong’s iconic old airport, the Kai Tak Stadium shimmers with shades from blue and purple to silver depending on the angles, thanks to a facade of 27,000 self-cleaning aluminum panels.

With its retractable roof, configurable seating and adaptable pitch – which will be stored in the neighboring mainland Chinese city of Shenzhen when not in use – the stadium can accommodate a wide range of sports and entertainment events. Yet, at its core, it was purpose-built for rugby, with the goal of heightening the intense, electric atmosphere that defines the Sevens, said Paul Henry, a senior principal at Populous, the architecture firm behind the sports park.

“We’ve designed more rugby stadiums than anyone else in the world, and the most important thing with rugby is: how close can we get everyone to the action on the field?” Henry said.

To achieve this, the design team optimized the geometry of the stadium, giving each seat enough space while wrapping them as tightly around the pitch as possible. “What that translates to is great noise, great atmosphere, and that’s what matters,” he said. (The seats also come with individual air-conditioning outlets underneath, a welcome relief during Hong Kong’s unforgiving summers.)

Another way to intensify the audience experience is by containing and amplifying crowd noise. The stadium’s retractable roof – which can open and close fully within 30 minutes – is engineered with the highest level of acoustic insulation the firm has ever incorporated. “As soon as you close the roof, the noise stays in, and the atmosphere just gets elevated,” Henry said.

“The atmosphere is going to be crazy,” said Cado Lee, one of Hong Kong’s most experienced men’s players, after touring the stadium. “I think it’ll all hit us when we run out onto the field and see everyone in the packed stands.”

The players were equally impressed by the stadium’s 20 changing rooms each equipped with physiotherapy facilities and video analysis tools.

All about the party

For the new stadium’s designers, the trick to replicating the party spirit of past Sevens tournaments hinged on faithfully recreating the infamous South Stand – a designated zone for hardcore revelers at the old stadium.

There, spectators competed to outdo one another with outrageous costumes and copious amounts of booze. Sudden showers of beer, cider, and other mysterious fluids became as integral to the vibe as the deafening roar of the crowd. At night, after the final whistle was blown, thousands of jubilant fans poured into the streets, heading toward the city’s bars to continue the debauchery, sometimes till dawn.

Even the players couldn’t resist the infectious energy. “It’s definitely more of a party – with some rugby involved,” said Christy Cheng, former captain for the Hong Kong Women’s Sevens.

At the Kai Tak Stadium, the new South Stand features the exact same seating capacity and nearly identical entrance ways. But instead of the familiar green hillside backdrop of the old open-air stadium, the new South Stand is framed by a sweeping glass curtain wall that offers panoramic views of the harbor and the Hong Kong skyline.

It is against this towering vista that bands, including the UK’s Kaiser Chiefs, will take the stage in between the matches, on a vast terrace just above the stand. Bridging the North and South stands is a 100-meter-long drinks service station dubbed “Asia’s longest bar,” designed to ease the notoriously long queues as fans scramble for top-ups between games.

“It will be familiar, but it will be amplified so much more,” Henry said of the new party vibe.

For some, that promise remains the Sevens’ biggest allure. “I only ever go to the South Stand,” said Dalton Huskins, who has been five times. “In all honesty, I’m not a huge rugby fan, but when the Sevens comes around, I’m like: I can take an interest in rugby for a few days,” said the 32-year-old, who plans to show up this year dressed as a “sexy farmer.”

Local hero Salom Yiu, Hong Kong’s longest-serving Rugby Sevens player, relishes what will be a rare experience as a spectator after his emotional retirement from the sport at last year’s edition.

“I’ve actually never been to the South Stand in my life, even after 14 years of competing in this tournament, so this time will be my first. I really want to feel the party spirit,” he said.

James Farndon, chief executive of Hong Kong China Rugby, the event’s main organizer, said he expected “all of the traditions and atmosphere of the Sevens to not just continue but to be amplified by the state-of-the-art venue at Kai Tak.”

“At the same time we are also very excited to see what new traditions are created by the fans inside the stadium this year.”

But what about the after-party?

For many fans and players alike, the Sevens isn’t just about what happens on the field – it’s also about what comes after. The post-match revelry has long been a big part of the tournament’s charm.

Coker, the teacher and a South Stand regular, recalled how the shared journey from the stadium to bars in the nearby Wan Chai district was an experience in itself. “It was really nice because you had thousands of people walking out of the stadium together. Everyone was singing, everyone was in good spirits, and they were all going towards Wan Chai,” he said.

Players felt the same way. “At the previous stadium, we could go straight to the party districts easily. But here, how will they make up for it?” wondered Yiu, the local Sevens legend.

The 28-hectare sports park, which includes a mall and a hotel, boasts dozens of restaurants popular with local families and friends on weekends, yet few can rival the high-energy, late-night revelry of the downtown bar strips.

To add to the festive spirit, pop-up food and beer stalls will line the “fan village,” an outdoor space just outside the stadium, during the tournament. But with a closing time of 11 p.m., they may wind down just as the night is getting started for diehard revelers.

Nevertheless, with or without the after-party, this year’s Sevens is set to carry forward a nearly half-century-old tradition.

“The Sevens is one of the reasons why rugby is so big in Hong Kong. People you meet from back home fly in for it, because everyone has heard about it,” said Luke Linssner, who has been playing rugby since he was nine.

For Cheng, the former captain, the Hong Kong Sevens will always hold a special place – with its sea of costumes and unmatched sense of fun.

“That’s what sports is all about – to be able to bring people together and create that magical atmosphere together,” she said. “I really look forward to making new memories.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Robert Antic has never been to Hungary’s annual Budapest Pride, due to mark its 30-year anniversary this summer. But now, the 37-year-old content creator who is representing Hungary at this year’s “Mr. Gay Europe” wants to join the festivities for the first time – and the timing is no coincidence.

Hungarian lawmakers on Tuesday passed a new law which bans Pride events in the country and allows authorities to use facial recognition technology to identify those attending any events that go ahead despite the ban – something campaigners say is illegal and part of a wider crackdown on the LGBTQ+ community.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban welcomed the ban, which he said would outlaw gatherings that “violate child protection laws.”

“We won’t let woke ideology endanger our kids,” he posted on X on Tuesday.

The move sparked lively protests in Budapest earlier this week, with organizers of the city’s Pride vowing to continue with the annual festival despite the new law and declaring: “We will fight this new fascist ban.”

For Antic, who describes himself as a “proud gay man,” the ban is a violation of his right to express himself.

Despite the fears that the new law brings, Antic said he still considers Pride a “fundamental event” for the community.

“No matter the challenges or restrictions, it’s important for people to come together and celebrate who they are,” he said. “I believe change is possible.”

‘New laws to segregate us’

The Hungarian government, led by Orban’s nationalist-populist party, regularly stands at odds with the rest of the European Union despite being a member.

Earlier this month, Hungary, the only EU member state opposing Ukraine from joining, refused to sign a statement of support for Kyiv that was agreed to by all other countries within the union. Orban is also a close ally of US President Donald Trump, with the two sharing both an ideology and political approach.

Orban’s party has been enacting anti-LGBTQ+ legislation for several years now, often under the guise of so-called “child-protection.”

In 2020, the country effectively barred same-sex adoption, with Orban’s office saying at the time that the move strengthened “the protection of Hungarian families and the safety of our children.”

A year later, the country banned the distribution of content related to homosexuality or gender change to under 18s, something the European Commission said violated “a number of EU rules.”

As a self-described queer person, he has attended every Pride event held in Budapest since he arrived.

Though the new law made him momentarily question whether his move to the city had been the right decision, he decided that his presence, along with other members of the LGBTQ+ community, is “now more important than ever.”

“It makes me want to be more obvious (as a queer person),” he said.

For June, a 24-year-old non-binary, bisexual teacher and tattoo artist who did not want to share their last name for privacy reasons, Hungary is a challenging place to be openly LGBTQ+.

In an effort to create more spaces for LGBTQ+ people in Budapest to meet, June has for the past two years held an event called Queer Picnic on the city’s central Margaret Island.

Some 70 people showed up to the first picnic after June advertised it on social media, with dozens showing up the following year.

Despite the escalating clampdown, June said that they would organize another event this year, despite the ban on LGBTQ+ gatherings. “Queer Picnic for now will be a really great solace for people during these times,” they said.

“People want to feel normal – that’s all we want. We just want to feel normal,” they added. “It’s the government that keeps inventing new laws to further segregate us.”

‘Highly intrusive level of surveillance’

As members of the LGBTQ+ community are vowing to defy Hungary’s new law, politicians and non-governmental organizations around the world are speaking out against it too.

“This government wants to turn the clock back by decades and drag the country back to a much darker past,” a cross-party group of European Parliament members declared on Wednesday.

Ghoshal said the law’s reliance on “the worn-out claim that it is protecting children by criminalizing LGBTIQ people and their allies is a blatant ploy to misuse children for political gain.”

Despite criticism from human rights groups and opposing legislators – some of whom let off smoke flares in Hungary’s parliament on Tuesday – the law was passed in a 136-27 vote, with support from Orban’s party and their minority coalition partner the Christian Democrats.

Orban may be trying to appeal to right-wing voters – Hungary’s opposition party, Tisza, leads Orban’s Fidesz in polls, according to Reuters, a year before elections in the country.

Meanwhile, other critics have homed in on the government’s planned use of facial recognition tools to police the ban.

Anna Bacciarelli, a senior researcher at Human Rights Watch, said that Hungary is subject to the European Union’s AI Act, which, she says, “explicitly prohibits the use of facial recognition in public spaces unless there is justification on national security grounds and when it is subject to judicial oversight.”

Another danger of facial recognition technology is that it has been shown to misidentify people, particularly those from minority groups, according to Serhat Ozturk, a legal officer at UK-based nonprofit Privacy International.

June, the non-binary tattoo artist, said the threat of facial recognition being used if this year’s Pride goes ahead initially scared them, but as they heard more people say that they would go anyway in defiance of the law, it “lit a flame” within them.

“I’m realizing that these are all tactics to silence us,” June said. “And if that is their goal, then we must continue. We have to continue fighting. That is all that we can do.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Investors have closely watched Nvidia’s week-long GPU Technology Conference (GTC) for news and updates from the dominant maker of chips that power artificial intelligence applications.

The event comes at a pivotal time for Nvidia shares. After two years of monster gains, the stock is down 15% over the past month and 22% below the January all-time high.

As part of the event, CEO Jensen Huang took questions from analysts on topics ranging from demand for its advanced Blackwell chips to the impact of Trump administration tariffs. Here’s a breakdown of how Huang responded — and what analysts homed in on — during some of the most important questions:

Huang said he “underrepresented” demand in a slide that showed 3.6 million in estimated Blackwell shipments to the top four cloud service providers this year. While Huang acknowledged speculation regarding shrinking demand, he said the amount of computation needed for AI has “exploded” and that the four biggest cloud service clients remain “fully invested.”

Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore noted that Huang’s commentary on Blackwell demand in data centers was the first-ever such disclosure.

“It was clear that the reason the company made the decision to give that data was to refocus the narrative on the strength of the demand profile, as they continue to field questions related to Open AI related spending shifting from 1 of the 4 to another of the 4, or the pressure of ASICs, which come from these 4 customers,” Moore wrote to clients, referring to application-specific integrated circuits.

Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar said the slide was “only scratching the surface” on demand. Beyond the four largest customers, he said others are also likely “all in line looking to get their hands on as much compute as their budgets allow.”

Another takeaway for Moore was the growth in physical AI, which refers to the use of the technology to power machines’ actions in the real world as opposed to within software.

At previous GTCs, Moore said physical AI “felt a little bit like speculative fiction.” But this year, “we are now hearing developers wrestling with tangible problems in the physical realm.”

Truist analyst William Stein, meanwhile, described physical AI as something that’s “starting to materialize.” The next wave for physical AI centers around robotics, he said, and presents a potential $50 trillion market for Nvidia.

Stein highliughted Jensen’s demonstration of Isaac GR00T N1, a customizable foundation model for humanoid robots.

Several analysts highlighted Huang’s explanation of what tariffs mean for Nvidia’s business.

“Management noted they have been preparing for such scenarios and are beginning to manufacture more onshore,” D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria said. “It was mentioned that Nvidia is already utilizing [Taiwan Semiconductor’s’] Arizona fab where it is manufacturing production silicon.”

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon said Huang’s answer made it seem like Nvidia’s push to relocate some manufacturing to the U.S. would limit the effect of higher tariffs.

Rasgon also noted that Huang brushed off concerns of a recession hurting customer spending. Huang argued that companies would first cut spending in the areas of their business that aren’t growing, Rasgon said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

After reaching an all-time around $540 in mid-February, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) dropped almost 14% to make a new swing low around $467. With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq bouncing nicely this week, investors are struggling to differentiate between a bearish dead-cat bounce and a bullish full recovery.

There was no question that valuations had become incredibly rich going into the end of 2024, so some sort of corrective move was widely anticipated in Q1 2025. But was the February to March drawdown enough to appease the valuation trolls and empower investors to buy weakness to drive prices to further all-time highs? Today, we’ll lay out four potential outcomes for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

As I share each of these four future paths, I’ll describe the market conditions that would likely be involved, and I’ll also share my estimated probability for each scenario. The goal of this example of “probabilistic analysis” is to expand our thinking of what’s possible, to break down our preconceived market biases, and to open our minds to alternative points of view.

Before we do so, though, I’d love to revisit the last time we conducted this exercise on the Nasdaq 100 back in December 2024.

Going into early January, it appeared that Scenario 4, the Super Bearish scenario, was matching very closely with market action. But a very choppy month of January kept prices fairly stable, and by the end of January the Nasdaq 100 was very close to the end of our Scenario 3.

Back to the current market environment, we’re thinking a Very Bullish Scenario would mean the QQQ continues the current uptrend, which eventually becomes a full recovery to retest the February 2025 high. On the other hand, if this week is really more of a dead cat bounce, then the Super Bearish Scenario could take us all the way down to retest the August 2024 lows.

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

  1. Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.
  2. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop me a comment and let me know your vote!
  3. Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most optimistic scenario, involving the QQQ continuing this week’s rally to retest the recent all-time high.

Scenario 1: The Very Bullish Scenario

I’ve heard plenty of calls that last week’s low was actually “the” low and the bottom is now in. But for the Nasdaq 100 to get all the way back up to $540, we would need to see a dramatic recovery in the Mag 7 names. Without a rally from the mega-cap growth trade, I don’t think it’s even possible for this sort of bull phase to play out.  Given the continued weakness in charts like META, I’d say this is a low probability.

Dave’s Vote: 5%

Scenario 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

What if we do see a recovery in most sectors and themes outside the Mag 7 stocks? Scenario 2 would mean the QQQ can only get up to around $200, because without the biggest growth names participating the uptrend has limited momentum. Breadth conditions would definitely improve in this scenario, as stocks thrive on a decent Q1 earnings season.

Dave’s vote: 20%

Scenario 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

The two bearish scenarios would mean that the recent upswing starts to turn lower as renewed fears of inflation, geopolitical risk, and a weak earnings season all weigh on risk assets. A mildly bearish scenario means perhaps that we see some signs of optimism as investors begin to feel more familiar with the flurry of policy decisions from Washington. And even though we haven’t gained much ground by the end of April, it definitely feels as if the bear phase is limited.

Dave’s vote: 30%

Scenario 4: The Super Bearish Scenario

What if the flurry of policy decisions we’ve seen is just an appetizer, and the main course arrives in April? Given the global instability and economic concerns, it’s not hard to envision a scenario where the February to March drop was the first in a multi-wave decline that takes the QQQ back down to the August 2024 lows. This scenario seems like the most likely outcome based on the breadth and momentum deteriorations we’ve been tracking for months on our daily market recap show.

Dave’s vote: 45%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios?  Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The Zweig Breadth Thrust is best known for its bullish reversal signals, which capture a material increase in upside participation. There is, however, more to the indicator because traders can also use the “setup” period to identify oversold conditions. This report will explain the original Zweig Breadth Thrust and show how these signals work.

Note that our breadth models turned bearish in mid March and the major index ETFs triggered long-term downtrend signals. I am now watching for something that would prove this stance otherwise, such as a Zweig Breadth Thrust. A set up is in the making using S&P 500 data, but this has yet to translate into a signal. We will follow this setup closely in the coming days. Click here for a trial and full access to our reports and videos.

A Sharp Increase in Advancing Stocks 

The Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) indicator uses NYSE advance-decline data to identify major shifts in the percentage of advancing stocks (breadth). The first step is to calculate the percentage of advancing stocks (advances divided by advances plus declines). Second, apply a 10-day EMA. Thus, the indicator is the 10-day EMA of Advances/(Advances + Declines). This formula comes from Greg Morris’ book, the Encyclopedia of Breadth Indicators.

A value of .40 means the 10-day EMA is just 40%, which shows an extremely low percentage of advancing stocks. A value of .615 means the 10-day EMA is 61.5%, which shows an exceptionally large percentage of advancing stocks. For reference, the chart below shows NYSE Advances and Declines in the middle window and the ZBT indicator in the lower window.

From Setup to Signal

The Zweig Breadth Thrust triggers when the indicator moves from an extremely low level to an exceptionally high level in a short period. Such moves show a major turnaround in participation (advancing stocks). A setup occurs when the indicator dips below .40 (40%), and the Zweig Breadth Thrust signals when the indicator surges above .615 (61.5%) within 10 days.

The chart above shows the ZBT indicator (!BINYBT) in the top window, the digital signal in the middle window (!BINYBTD) and the NY Composite in the lower window. The blue shadings show the indicator surging from below .40 to above .615 within a 10 day window (April and November 2023). The pink shadings show two signals that missed the 10 day cutoff.

This indicator can also identify short-term oversold conditions with a move below .40 (40%). The gray vertical lines show instances when this indicator became oversold (March, August, September and October 2023, April and December 2024). Short-term oversold conditions reflect an extreme pullback that can lead to a bounce.

Solid Rationale, but Something Missing

There is a solid rationale behind the Zweig Breadth Thrust, but something is missing. Those “somethings” are Nasdaq stocks. I suspect Zweig used NYSE breadth because he developed it when the big board (NYSE) dominated trading (80s). The Nasdaq is now a major exchange so a modern breadth indicator should include Nasdaq stocks. I would suggest using S&P 500 or S&P 1500 stocks. Nasdaq stocks account for around 30% of the S&P 500, which is the most important benchmark and where institutions are active. Nasdaq stocks account for around 33% of the S&P 1500, a broad index that covers large-caps, mid-caps and small-caps.

The NYSE ZBT Indicator did not move below .40 in mid March, but versions using the S&P 1500 and S&P 1500 did on March 13th. This means two things. First, the S&P 500 and S&P 1500 became oversold and ripe for a bounce. Second, a possible Zweig Breadth Thrust is setting up with March 27th as the cut off date.

The full version of this report is reversed for subscribers. We show how to set up the ZBT indicator using S&P 500 and S&P 1500 breadth, review past signals and analyze the current situation. This report includes custom SharpCharts with links and a video for deeper understanding. Click here to subscribe and gain immediate access. 

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We wrote about the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) poll results a few weeks ago. Since then, the bearish activity on the chart has broken a record for the poll. Going back to the poll’s inception in 1987, we have never seen four weeks in a row of bearish readings above 55%. We are now at bearish extremes for this indicator.

Remember that sentiment, which this poll measures, is contrarian. This means that when market participants are extraordinarily bearish, it is a bullish indication. The opposite also applies; extraordinarily bullish readings are bearish for the market.

Clearly, you can see that, even after and during the bear market in 2022, we never saw a cluster of readings this high. This has put the bull/bear ratio at a very low reading. Typically speaking, this would result in an upside reversal.

One thing we would say is that sometimes poll takers are RIGHT! So while we do see extremely bearish readings, we wouldn’t bet the house that this isn’t a bear market. At DecisionPoint.com we have been monitoring our indicators and participation and we are considering that we are in the throes of a bear market rally and that it isn’t likely to stick around. However, charts like this do have us wondering if the correction is all we’ll get.

Conclusion: Sentiment is extremely bearish on AAII and typically this will lead to a sustained rally. However, we have to understand that sometimes the respondents are correct and we’ll see more downside after all.


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Bear Market Rules


Seeing that the earnings slate is light, this week we focus on certain stocks to watch during uncertain times.

If you are jittery and risk-averse, we have two safer (boring) stocks, plus one tech stock that has shown great relative strength compared to its peers. Let’s do a deep dive into all three.

American International Group (AIG)

Insurance stocks have done quite well in the current volatile environment. As inflation fears mount, it’s ironic that an inflationary sector is a good one to buy in the current cycle.

We can go with a basket of insurance stocks by adding the iShares U.S. Insurance ETF (IAK), which is up 7.3% YTD, but, for this article, let’s focus on one of its leaders, AIG.

Fundamentally, results have been solid and bolstered by a strong buyback program. AIG pays a dividend of 1.9%. Analysts, according to Bloomberg data, have the equivalent of 12 buys, 8 holds, and 0 sells with an average price target at current levels of $85.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF AIG. The stock is one of strongest within its sector and is likely to be more stable.

Technically, let’s keep it simple. Looking at multiple time frames, we are seeing breakouts. There are great risk/reward set-ups based on these patterns. It’s one of the strongest within the sector and looks attractive above $80. 

Shares won’t run up like a tech stock, but, in tougher and unpredictable times, look for more stable and slow growth with solid returns; thus, one of the best within the insurance sector.

John Deere (DE)

Another stock with great relative strength within the Industrial sector is DE. It’s up 11.3% year-to-date and outperforming both the Industrials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) (up 0.2% year-to-date) and the S&P 500 (-4%).

Fundamentally, John Deere’s guidance was not solid. Tariff concerns were mentioned, but — and this is a BIG BUT — CEO John May noted in the call that “75% of all products that we sell in the U.S. are assembled here in the U.S.” This fits well with the narrative coming out of Washington.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF DE. After breaking out of a two-year base, it looks like a great setup.

Technically, we see another great set-up. Shares experienced a major break-out of a two-year base on a weekly timeframe. The daily chart, while a tad more choppy, looks solid as well. The risk/reward set-up is also favorable to the bulls.

Again, kinda boring, but pullbacks have been bought. An upside target of $540 over the next year is very plausible given the base it broke out of on the weekly. Use a near-term stop on a pullback just under the $440 level, depending on your risk tolerance.

Broadcom (AVGO)

Broadcom (AVGO) is anything but boring. It’s the third biggest weight in the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH), fourth in the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) and eighth in S&P 500. It’s one of the biggest stocks in a sector that has been struggling. And yet, when you look at it technically, it’s a top name with great relative strength.

Fundamentally, AVGO had a great quarterly result. AI chip revenue was up 220% y-o-y to $12.2 billion. The $69 billion acquisition of VMWare (end of 2023) is starting to pay dividends, as it helped expand its software business now that it has a full year under its belt. Like most semiconductor stocks, it hasn’t recovered since the DeepSeek news.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF BROADCOM STOCK. AVGO has retraced to its 200-day simple moving average and looks like a good risk/reward setup.

Yet technically, shares have retraced back to the rising 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and held. That level also coincides with the gap from which it broke above. Thus, the former major resistance area now becomes support. This gives investors a good risk/reward set-up, using the recent lows just below $177 as a near-term stop.

We can also see a bullish crossover in the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD), which signaled a buy signal last week. Between solid support holding, good technical relative strength, and a MACD buy signal, shares could run back to $215. That target would reach its declining 50-day moving average. If we see momentum come back into the sector, this should lead the rally.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.