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The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

UnitedHealth Group revealed Thursday it is facing a Justice Department investigation over its Medicare billing practices.

It comes after the Wall Street Journal reported in May that the Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation into the health-care giant over possible Medicare fraud. In response at the time, the company said it stands “by the integrity of our Medicare Advantage program.”

In July, the Journal also reported that the DOJ interviewed several doctors about UnitedHealth’s practices and whether they felt pressured to submit claims for certain conditions that bolstered payments from the Medicare Advantage program to the company.

That marked the second time this year that the insurer’s Medicare Advantage business has come under federal scrutiny. The Journal also reported in February that the DOJ is conducting a civil investigation into whether the company inflated diagnoses to trigger extra payments to its Medicare Advantage plans.

But in March, UnitedHealth moved a step closer to ending a yearslong legal battle with the DOJ that began with a whistleblower who alleged the company illegally withheld at least $2 billion through the Medicare Advantage program. A special master assigned to the case by the judge issued a recommendation in favor of UnitedHealth, saying the DOJ lacked evidence.

UnitedHealthcare’s Medicare and retirement segment, which includes the Medicare Advantage business, is UnitedHealth Group’s largest revenue driver, raking in $139 billion in sales last year.

The update in the probe comes after a tumultuous last year for UnitedHealthcare, the nation’s largest and most powerful private health insurer. Shares of UnitedHealthcare’s parent company, UnitedHealth Group, are down more than 42% for the year after it suspended its 2025 forecast amid skyrocketing medical costs, announced the surprise exit of former CEO Andrew Witty and grappled with the reported probe into its Medicare Advantage business.

The company’s 2024 wasn’t any easier, marked by a historic cyberattack and the torrent of public blowback after the murder of UnitedHealthcare’s CEO Brian Thompson.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Alphabet reported second-quarter results on Wednesday that beat on revenue and earnings, but the company said it would raise its capital investments by $10 billion in 2025.

Here’s how the company did, compared with estimates from analysts polled by LSEG:

Wall Street is also watching several other numbers in the report:

The company’s overall revenue grew 14% year over year, higher than the 10.9% Wall Street expected, but Alphabet is going to spend more on artificial intelligence in 2025 than it anticipated.

In February, the company said it expected to invest $75 billion in capital expenditures in 2025 as it continues to expand on its AI strategy. That was already above the $58.84 billion Wall Street expected at the time.

The company increased that figure on Wednesday to $85 billion, saying it was raising it due to “strong and growing demand for our Cloud products and services.” The company expects to further increase capital expenditures in 2026, Alphabet finance chief Anat Ashkenazi said on an earnings call.

The company reported revenue of $13.62 billion for its cloud computing business, which is a 32% increase from a year ago. Last week, OpenAI announced that it expected to use Google’s cloud infrastructure for its popular ChatGPT service. Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai said “we are very excited to be partnering with them.”

Alphabet’s net income increased to $28.20 billion, up nearly 20% from the previous year.

The company’s search and advertising units still showed growth in the second quarter despite AI competition heating up. The company’s search unit brought in $54.19 billion during the quarter, and its advertising revenue grew to $71.34 billion — up about 10.4% from $64.61 billion the year prior.

YouTube advertising revenue came in at $9.8 billion, higher than Wall Street expected.

The company said its “Other Bets” segment, which includes its self-driving car unit Waymo and life sciences unit Verily, brought in $373 million — up from $365 million a year ago. Other Bets reported a loss of $1.25 billion, up from the $1.13 billion a year ago.

AI Overviews, Google’s AI search product that summarizes search results, now has upward of two billion monthly users across more than 200 countries and territories, Pichai said during Wednesday’s earnings call. That’s up from 1.5 billion monthly users last quarter.

The Gemini app, which has the company’s AI chatbot, now has more than 450 million monthly active users, Pichai said.

When asked about large spending on AI talent, Ashkenazi said Alphabet makes “sure that we invest appropriately to have the best and brightest minds in the industry.”

Google made a splash in the AI talent wars, announcing earlier in July that it would bring in Windsurf CEO Varun Mohan and other top researchers at the AI coding startup as part of a $2.4 billion deal that also includes licensing the company’s technology.

Total operating expenses increased 20% to $26.1 billion, Ashkenazi said on Wednesday. The biggest driver of growth was expenses for legal and other matters due in part to a $1.4 billion charge related to a settlement, she said on Wednesday’s earnings call. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in May announced a $1.37 billion settlement with Google related to a data privacy rights lawsuit it made against the company in 2022.

Ashkenazi said Alphabet’s third-quarter revenue “could see a tailwind” due to several reasons. That includes a negative impact for advertising, which benefited from “strong spend on U.S. elections” in late 2024, particularly on YouTube, she said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Uber announced a new feature Wednesday that pairs women drivers and riders, in its latest move to address safety on the ride-hailing platform.

The new tool, which the platform will begin piloting next month in the U.S., allows women passengers to match with women drivers when booking or pre-booking rides, and create a preference in their app settings. Women drivers can also choose to drive women.

“It’s about giving women more choice, more control, and more comfort when they ride and drive,” Camiel Irving, Uber’s vice president of U.S. and Canada operations, said in a release.

The company said the rider’s preference isn’t guaranteed but the feature increases the chances women will be paired in the app.

Uber will pilot the program in Los Angeles, San Francisco and Detroit. The company also said it tested the feature in countries such as France, Germany and Argentina.

This isn’t Uber’s first foray into gender preferences on its platform.

In 2019, Uber rolled out a women rider preference feature for female drivers in Saudi Arabia after women won the right to drive in 2018. That offering later expanded to about 40 countries. A survey from the company in 2015 found that about a fifth of its U.S. drivers were women.

Over the years, ride-hailing companies such as Uber and Lyft have faced safety concerns and questions over the roles these platforms have played in various sexual assault and harassment incidents.

Uber has rolled out several features in recent years to improve safety on the platform, including teen accounts and rider and pin verification.

Competitor Lyft launched an option in late 2023 that pairs women and nonbinary drivers and riders.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

UnitedHealth Group revealed Thursday it is facing a Justice Department investigation over its Medicare billing practices.

It comes after the Wall Street Journal reported in May that the Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation into the health-care giant over possible Medicare fraud. In response at the time, the company said it stands “by the integrity of our Medicare Advantage program.”

In July, the Journal also reported that the DOJ interviewed several doctors about UnitedHealth’s practices and whether they felt pressured to submit claims for certain conditions that bolstered payments from the Medicare Advantage program to the company.

That marked the second time this year that the insurer’s Medicare Advantage business has come under federal scrutiny. The Journal also reported in February that the DOJ is conducting a civil investigation into whether the company inflated diagnoses to trigger extra payments to its Medicare Advantage plans.

But in March, UnitedHealth moved a step closer to ending a yearslong legal battle with the DOJ that began with a whistleblower who alleged the company illegally withheld at least $2 billion through the Medicare Advantage program. A special master assigned to the case by the judge issued a recommendation in favor of UnitedHealth, saying the DOJ lacked evidence.

UnitedHealthcare’s Medicare and retirement segment, which includes the Medicare Advantage business, is UnitedHealth Group’s largest revenue driver, raking in $139 billion in sales last year.

The update in the probe comes after a tumultuous last year for UnitedHealthcare, the nation’s largest and most powerful private health insurer. Shares of UnitedHealthcare’s parent company, UnitedHealth Group, are down more than 42% for the year after it suspended its 2025 forecast amid skyrocketing medical costs, announced the surprise exit of former CEO Andrew Witty and grappled with the reported probe into its Medicare Advantage business.

The company’s 2024 wasn’t any easier, marked by a historic cyberattack and the torrent of public blowback after the murder of UnitedHealthcare’s CEO, Brian Thompson.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

In this video, Mary Ellen spotlights the areas driving market momentum following Taiwan Semiconductor’s record-breaking earnings report. She analyzes continued strength in semiconductors, utilities, industrials, and AI-driven sectors, plus highlights new leadership in robotics and innovation-focused ETFs like ARK. From there, Mary Ellen breaks down weakness in health care and housing stocks, shows how to refine trade entries using hourly charts, and compares today’s rally to past market surges. Watch as she explores setups in silver and examines individual stocks like Nvidia, BlackRock, and State Street.

This video originally premiered on July 18, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

Markets don’t usually hit record highs, risk falling into bearish territory, and spring back to new highs within six months. But that’s what happened in 2025.

In this special mid-year recap, Grayson Roze sits down with David Keller, CMT, to show how disciplined routines, price-based signals, and a calm process helped them ride the whipsaw instead of getting tossed by it. You’ll see what really happened under the surface, how investor psychology drove the swings, and the exact StockCharts tools they leaned on to stay objective. 

If you’re focused on protecting capital, generating income, and sleeping well at night while still capturing the upside, this is a must-watch. Discover which charts deserve your attention now, what to ignore, and how to prep for the back half of 2025. 

This video premiered on July 23, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

The chart of Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) has completed a roundtrip from the February high around $740 to the April low at $480 and all the way back again.  Over the last couple weeks, META has now pulled back from its retest of all-time highs, leaving investors to wonder what may come next.

Is this the beginning of a new downtrend phase for META?  Or just a brief pullback before a new uptrend phase propels META to new all-time highs?

Today we’ll look at two potential scenarios, including the double top pattern and the cup and handle pattern, and share which technical indicators and approaches could help us determine which path plays out into August.

The double top scenario basically means that the late July retest of the previous all-time high was the end of the recent uptrend phase.  The double top pattern is literally when a major resistance level is set and then retested.  The implication is that a lack of willing buyers means the uptrend is exhausted, and there is nowhere to go but down.

While the 21-day exponential moving average is currently in play for META, I would say that a break below the 50-day moving average could confirm this as the correct scenario.  If that smoothing mechanism does not hold, then the price action would imply less of a pullback and more like the beginning of a real distribution phase.

What is META pulls back but then resumes an uptrend phase, leading META to another new all-time high?  That would result in a confirmed cup and handle pattern, created by a large rounded bottoming pattern followed by a brief pullback.  The key to this pattern is the “rim” of the cup, which sits right at $740 for META.

Given the pullback META has demonstrated so far in July, I would say that a break above the $740 level would basically confirm a bullish cup and handle pattern.  That would suggest much more upside potential for META, as the stock would literally go into previously uncharted territory.

So how can we determine which scenario is more likely to play out?  This is where we need to incorporate more technical indicators into the discussion, as a way to further validate and confirm our investment thesis.

Just to review, I think a break above $740 would confirm a bullish cup and handle pattern.  I would also say that a break below the $680 level, which would represent a move below the 50-day moving average as well as the June swing lows, would basically confirm a bearish double top pattern.

We can also use the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to help determine whether META remains in a bullish trend phase.  During bull phases, the RSI rarely gets below 40, because buyers usually step in to “buy the dips” and keep the momentum fairly constructive.  So if the price would break down, and the RSI would not hold that crucial 40 level, that could mean a bearish outlook is warranted.

Finally, we can use volume-based indicators to assess whether moves in the price are supported by stronger volume readings.  Here I’ve included the Accumulation/Distribution Line, which tracks the trend in daily volume readings over time.  We can see that the high in July resulted in a divergence, as the A/D line was trending lower.  If the A/D line would break below its June and July lows, marked by a dashed red line, that would represent a bearish volume reading for META.

Technical analysis is less about predicting the future, and more about determining the most probable scenarios based on our analysis of trend, momentum, and volume.  I hope this discussion shows how the outlook for META can be easily determined and tracked using the best practices of technical analysis!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

There’s a new player making waves in an industry dominated by big banks.

Imprint, the 5-year-old credit card startup, beat out banks in a competitive bidding process for a new co-branded card from online shopping platform Rakuten, CNBC has learned.

The deal is the most recent sign that Imprint is gaining traction in the co-branded credit card industry.

The New York-based startup also just raised $70 million in additional capital, boosting its valuation by 50% to $900 million less than a year from its previous round, according to Imprint CEO Daragh Murphy.

Credit card partnerships with retailers, airlines and hotels are some of the most hotly contested deals in finance. Brands often go through extensive bidding processes to select a card company, while the companies compete for the right to issue cards to millions of loyal customers. The industry’s largest players include JPMorgan Chase, Capital One, Citigroup and Synchrony.

“We’re talking to Fortune 500 companies about being their partner and them choosing us over Synchrony, over Barclays, over U.S. Bank,” Murphy said in an interview. “We have to kind of walk and talk like we’re a big, important company, even though we still have a startup ethos.”

That’s why the company recently raised capital, bringing its total to $330 million, most of which is held on the firm’s balance sheet, according to Murphy. Those funds help show potential partners that Imprint has staying power, he said.

Imprint also has about $1.5 billion in credit lines from banks including Citigroup, Truist and Mizuho, which it uses to extend loans to card customers, Murphy said. The startup is behind the cards from brands including Eddie Bauer, Brooks Brothers and Turkish Airlines.

To offer its credit cards, Imprint usually partners with one of two small banks, First Electronic Bank or First Bank and Trust. Imprint handles the customer experience, including the technology and credit decisions, while using the credit card rails of regulated banks.

In the case of the Rakuten card, Imprint is relying on the American Express network, which allows users to get Amex purchase protections and other perks. It is using First Electronic Bank to help issue the cards.

“Though we’re not a regulated bank, we’re effectively building a bank,” Murphy said. “We have to do all the same things as a bank. We’re a capital markets company; we’re a compliance company; we’re a risk and credit and fraud company; we’re a technology company.”

To gain a toehold in the market for co-branded cards, which can be used anywhere credit cards are accepted, Imprint decided it would focus on a seamless digital experience for customers, Murphy said. That requires technology integration that is difficult for established players who rely on third-party companies including Fiserv to complete transactions, he said.

“The banks are in trouble because they don’t own the technology that the credit card runs on,” Murphy said. “Every credit card in your wallet, whether it’s Chase … or from Citi or Synchrony, they rely on two or three different third parties to power the technology.”

Imprint also decided to set itself apart by making it easy for customers to pay off their loans, Murphy said. Card companies including Bread Financial and Synchrony make a far larger percentage of revenue from late fees than Imprint does, he said.

“You shouldn’t have all these regressive late fees, and you shouldn’t make it hard to pay,” Murphy said. “The easier we make it to pay, the more likely you are to use the card, and the more likely you are to use the card, the better it is for everybody.”

Finally, Murphy said the company’s low customer acquisition costs allow it to fund more rewards for card users.

The new Rakuten card, for instance, offers users an extra 4% in cash back in addition to what customers earn through shopping on the online portal, capped at $7,000 in spending per year.

Users also earn 10% in cash back while dining at Rakuten’s partner restaurants, and 2% cash back on groceries and non-partner restaurants.

The previous Rakuten credit card was issued by Synchrony and discontinued in 2022.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Corporations are continuing to spend on business travel, but are being strategic about how they allocate those dollars amid ongoing trade uncertainties, according to new reports from the travel and expense platform Navan and the Global Business Travel Association.

Corporate travel spending activity increased 15% year over year in the second quarter of 2025, according to a business travel index published Tuesday from Navan.

Navan’s index, backed by Nasdaq, is derived from millions of corporate business transactions on its platform. It examines the amount spent and number of transactions relating to airline travel, hotel reservations and expense transactions from corporate cards.

Amy Butte, Navan’s CFO, said during an interview that from talking with other chief financial officers over the past few months, she never got the sense that corporate leaders would stop spending on business travel altogether. Instead, they are in “wait and see” mode.

“If you’re making choices about where you’re being cautious, we’re not seeing people be cautious in the area of relationship building, either with their customers or with their teammates. We’re still seeing the spend allocated towards travel as a key component of any business strategy,” Butte said.

But while global business travel is expected to reach a new high of $1.57 trillion in 2025, according to a Monday report by the Global Business Travel Association, that total represents 6.6% year-over-year growth, which is less than the 10.4% increase that was previously predicted. GBTA cited trade tensions, policy uncertainty and economic pressures as the reasons for the more moderate growth.

A string of sentiment polls by GBTA also shows that corporate travel optimism for the rest of 2025 appears muted. The percentage of respondents who said they were optimistic about the overall outlook for the business travel industry in 2025 dropped sharply from 67% in November 2024 to 31% in April and declined slightly again this month to 28%.

The findings from both reports, grouped together with commentary from airline CEOs last week, show C-suite leaders are still largely left in wait-and-see mode amid President Donald Trump’s fluid tariff policies, but companies appear now to have a better read on how they will manage the uncertainty.

“Historically, corporate travel has been the first thing, one of the easiest things, to minimize if you’re a company,” Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian said during the company’s earnings call this month, adding that corporate travel on the airline has been flat on a year-over-year basis.

But Butte said that Navan has not seen a drop-off in business travel. Instead, businesses are shifting how they are spending.

For example, Butte said businesses are continuing to commit to individual, face-to-face meetings, rather than spending on large group outings. The Navan index shows that spending on personal meals, meaning one-on-one meetings held over a meal, was up 9.8% from last year, while spending on team events and meals was the only category in the report that declined.

Navan did see some compression earlier in the year in the share of higher-priced airline tickets purchased that were first class or business class, Butte said, but she added that the platform has since seen an acceleration as uncertainty has lessened.

Airfare prices have also declined so far this year, which means business and consumers alike are spending less on plane tickets. Airfare fell 3.5% in June from a year earlier while inflation overall rose, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

GBTA CEO Suzanne Neufang said during an interview that CFOs have not cut travel spending off entirely, but are looking for efficient ways to get employees on the road. This may look like booking multicity trips, scheduling multiple meetings per trip or booking fewer trips per month, she said.

Neufang said the business travel industry has been focused over the past five years on making sure every trip has a purpose and delivers a return on investment.

“Gone are the days when there’s really frivolous business traveling,” Neufang said.

The new findings on business travel spending also come as airlines are reporting their quarterly earnings.

When Delta reported earnings on July 10, Bastian said he expects both consumer and corporate confidence to improve in the second half of the year, creating an environment for travel demand to accelerate.

Delta and other airlines saw travel demand come in weaker than expected at the beginning of the year, especially from price-sensitive customers traveling domestically. Bastian said back in April that Trump’s trade policies were hurting bookings.

Bastian took a more positive tone this month, telling CNBC that corporate travel has stabilized as businesses have more clarity and confidence than they did earlier this year. But he said corporate travel is in line with last year, not the 5% to 10% growth Delta expected at the start of the year.

Meanwhile, Delta President Glen Hauenstein said on an earnings call this month that corporate travel trends are “choppy” and overall corporate volumes are expected to be “flattish” over last year.

United Airlines reported earnings last week. CEO Scott Kirby said during the company’s call with analysts that so far this month, the airline has seen a double-digit acceleration in business demand as uncertainty has declined.

Andrew Nocella, United’s executive vice president and chief commercial officer, added that the business traffic growth is “across the board” and not restricted to any singular hub or vertical, which he said reflects lessening macroeconomic uncertainty.

Southwest Airlines, Alaska Airlines and American Airlines are scheduled to report their quarterly results this week.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS