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As we near the end of October 2024, it’s important to note that the market trends remain quite strong. Despite plenty of short-term breakdowns in key stocks this week, our Market Trend Model remains bullish on all time frames. This tells me to consider this market “innocent until proven guilty” but to always be looking for signs of a potential market reversal.

A quick review of key market breadth indicators this week shows that we are indeed seeing some of the warning signs often associated with major market tops. Does that mean the top is in, and that we’ll observe a major selloff in November? Not necessarily. But it does tell me to remain vigilant and observant for signs of distribution.

Negative McClellan Oscillator Suggests Short-Term Weakness

Let’s start with a short-term measure of market breadth, the McClellan Oscillator. Think of this indicator as a sort of a momentum reading for breadth conditions. And while other charts we’ll review address more of a long-term reversal in breadth, this indicator in particular is helpful for identifying short-term distribution patterns.

While the McClellan Oscillator did turn briefly positive a couple weeks ago, the indicator has spent most of the month of October in a bearish range. So, even though the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have made higher highs in recent weeks, this tells us that the pace of the advance is slowing, at least as measured by market breadth.


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Another way to think about this negative reading is that some of the smaller and more speculative stocks on the NYSE have already broken down, but the largest names with the biggest weights in the indexes remain strong. And if you look at previous bull market cycles, this is often how those long-term uptrends end.

Many S&P 500 Members Have Already Broken Down

I often use the 50- and 200-day moving averages to measure short-term and long-term trend conditions for individual stocks. Next we’ll look at the percent of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average, showing how many of the S&P 500 members remain above their 50-day moving average.

At the end of September, the reading was around 85%. As of this week, the number is closer to 55%. That suggests that about 30% of the S&P 500 members were above their 50-day moving average about a month ago, but have since broken below this short-term trend gauge. So, even though the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain above their own 50-day moving averages, plenty of individual stocks have already broken down.

Also notice the bearish divergence, with the S&P 500 making higher highs in October while the breadth indicator is making lower highs. This often occurs toward the end of a bull market phase, where the largest names are still driving higher but more speculative and risky stocks have already begun the process of downside rotation.

Bullish Percent Index Speaks Downside Risks

Finally, let’s check out the Bullish Percent Index, a breadth indicator derived from point & figure charts. We can see that over 80% of the S&P 500 members were in a bullish point & figure pattern in late September, but that number is now down to below 70%.

Look over the last two years when this indicator has dipped back below 70%, and you’ll see why the recent breakdown suggests a pullback phase may be imminent. The lone exception was in January 2024, when the S&P 500 continued to pound higher even though the breadth readings were weakening. This was the “golden age” of Magnificent 7 stocks in 2024, where the strength in the largest names was enough to overcome the breadth deterioration readings.

Could the market move higher through Q4 despite these concerning breadth signals? Possibly. But since major market tops usually feature breadth readings just like these, I’m pretty happy taking a more cautious approach to the equity markets as we move into November.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The Halloween effect caught up with the stock market! October 31 ended up being a spooky day for investors.

Tepid earnings from big tech companies and negative news about Super Micro Computer (SMCI) sent stocks plunging, especially semiconductors (more on this below).

Precious metals, which were in a roaring bull rally, also sold off. Gold futures were down 1.84% and silver prices fell 3.76%. Risk aversion seems to be back, with the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) rising by 13.81%, closing at 23.16. As uncertainty about the upcoming US election results creeps up, the VIX could rise further. If there’s one indicator to monitor in the next few trading days, the VIX would make the top of the list.

Economic Data Supports a Rate Cut

There was a smorgasbord of economic data this week, most supporting the idea that the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Some key data that was released are:

  • Wednesday’s JOLTS report shows that in September, US job openings were lower than expected.
  • The GDP for Q3 grew 2.8%, below the 3.1% estimate. Consumer spending was one of the biggest contributors to the GDP growth.
  • October consumer confidence rose over 11%, the biggest one-month rise since March 2021.
  • September Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) shows a 12-month inflation rate of 2.1%.

Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls should give more clarity to the Fed’s interest rate decision.

Tech Sector Gets Slammed

The StockCharts MarketCarpets for S&P 500 stocks by performance was a sea of red (see below). The Technology sector was the worst-performing sector of the day with the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) down 3.21% on Thursday. The largest weighted tech companies in the S&P 500—Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Broadcom (AVGO), and Oracle (ORCL)—took a scary downward ride.

FIGURE 1. STOCKCHARTS MARKETCARPETS FOR OCTOBER 31. The Technology sector got slammed, as did most other sectors. Energy and Utilities were mostly green. Image source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

A big blow to semiconductors was SMCI’s news of its auditor’s resignation. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell 3.65%. SMH has fallen below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) with a declining StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR), moving average convergence/divergence (MACD), and performance relative to the S&P 500 (see chart below).

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF THE VANECK VECTORS SEMICONDUCTOR ETF (SMH). Thursday’s selloff sent SMH below its 50-day moving average. Other indicators show an increase in selling pressure.Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

Thursday’s price action reminds us that things can change quickly, especially when the market has shown indecision for a while. Any negative news will cause a massive selloff, and if it impacts a sector that heavily influences the market, the selloff can be brutal.

There’s More To Come

On a positive note, from a long-term perspective, the broader indexes are still in an uptrend. Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Intel (INTC) reported earnings on Thursday after the close. While all of them beat estimates, Apple’s net income was lower. This could hurt its stock price, but probably not enough to bring the entire market down.

The more important news to pay attention to is Friday’s jobs number. The October nonfarm payrolls will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Friday. As of this writing, the Fed’s probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 94.6%. Let’s see how much that changes after the jobs data comes out.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

An electric motorcycle, made by Swedish-Kenyan manufacturer Roam completed a 6,000-kilometer (3,700-mile) journey from Nairobi, Kenya, to Stellenbosch, South Africa, in 17 days, using only solar power.

While the world record for the longest electric motorcycle journey is 25,000 kilometers (11,300 miles), undertaken over 42 days in the US, Roam hopes that its stunt helps to prove the viability of renewable energy for long-distance travel even in remote areas with poor charging infrastructure.

The batteries were charged en route through a solar panel charging system carried in a support vehicle, which would drive ahead each day, stopping to charge up the batteries, so that when the bike caught up it could swap the dead battery for a fresh one. During the journey, the motorcycle model, the Roam Air, achieved its new single battery record range of 113 kilometers (70 miles), and on the trip’s last day, it traveled 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) in less than 18 hours.

Kituyi split the riding with Stephan Lacock, a postgraduate student at Stellenbosch University who is working on a powertrain simulation project to boost the Roam Air’s efficiency. Accompanied by two support vehicles, they set off on 29 September, traveling through Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia and Botswana, before arriving in Stellenbosch on the morning of 16 October. The team drove along highways and dirt tracks, stopping off at Victoria Falls and Chobe River, where they camped under the stars and among hippos.

On average the team covered around 400 kilometers (250 miles) per day, with about 80 kilometers (50 miles) per battery.

Cloud cover

The biggest challenge the team faced during the journey was the weather. “You can’t force the sun to shine,” says Kituyi, and at some points they ended up adapting their route so that they could escape cloud cover and have an opportunity to recharge the batteries.

While Roam wanted to demonstrate the potential of solar energy as a solution for powering bikes in areas that lack charging infrastructure, Kituyi says that most of Roam’s customers charge their bikes at home with energy from the grid. However, he insists that this mammoth journey would still be possible for people without a solar support car.

“Anywhere you can charge your phone, you can charge the bike,” he says. “That means with enough planning and lodging in hotels that have electricity, you are able to do this journey yourself.”

However, he adds that he’s not expecting many of Roam’s customers to travel cross-continent – rather, riders might need the bike to travel between rural areas and cities. The feat was about “showing the flexibility works,” he says, and countering range anxiety.

Accelerating market

The journey was a collaborative effort between Roam and Stellenbosch University, which launched an Electric Mobility Lab this month, dedicated to advancing sustainable transport solutions.

Roam donated two motorcycles to the lab to support research and develop the bikes further. Kituyi hopes that through powertrain efficiency tests and “accelerated testing,” which involves charging and discharging the battery multiple times a day, the startup will gain a better understanding of the life cycles of the bike and the battery.

He adds that “accelerated testing” requires special facilities, and in the past Roam has carried out these tests outside Africa, including in China. The lab will give Roam the opportunity to keep the testing within the continent, which he says will make it more reliable as it’s undertaken in a similar climate, as well as helping to build Africa’s electric vehicle (EV) market.

According to market research firm Mordor Intelligence, the African EV market is worth an estimated $16 billion, and it is projected to reach $25 billion by 2029. It claims this is driven by increased investment, rising EV sales, and government policies that encourage electrification. For example, Rwanda has eliminated import taxes on electric vehicles and is offering incentives for charging infrastructure development.

They added that African startups are dominating the space, since they have designed bikes to withstand local road conditions, do not rely on traditional charging infrastructure, and offer flexible payment options. Rwanda’s Ampersand currently has a fleet of almost 4,000 and expects this to surpass 40,000 by the end of 2026, whereas Spiro has over 18,000 e-bikes on the road across Kenya, Benin, Togo, Rwanda and Uganda, and has launched in Nigeria.

Roam, founded in 2017 and formerly known as Opibus, has seen this transition firsthand. It started by electrifying safari vehicles, before turning to buses and motorcycles. Today, motorcycles are its main focus and it produces around 40 bikes a day, according to Kituyi. Currently, the bikes are available to buy in greater Nairobi, and in early 2025, it will be expanding across the whole of Kenya, as well as entering Uganda and Rwanda.

“There is a big demand and constant growth of the market for motorcycles,” says Kituyi, adding that he has seen a gradual shift in people’s mindset. “They are getting more confident with the idea of stopping at a restaurant and asking them for electricity to charge their bike.”

He hopes that the recent expedition will help to build trust in EVs even further.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Spain is reeling from its worst flooding in decades, after a year’s worth of rain fell in just hours this week in the country’s southern and eastern regions.

The storm began on Tuesday and has so far killed at least 95 people while dozens more remain missing. It has also flooded towns and roads, caused rivers to burst their banks and left thousands without power or running water.

Valencia, the worst-struck region, saw its heaviest rainfall in 28 years with people caught off guard and trapped in basements and lower floors of buildings. Vehicles abandoned in traffic were swept away by the rising water.

Emergency workers are still fighting to rescue those who are trapped, with operations underway to recover bodies and clear debris.

Here’s what we know.

Where is the worst damage?

Spain’s eastern and southern regions often see autumn rain, but this year’s downpour was unprecedented. Most of the deaths occurred in Valencia, which is located along the Mediterranean coast and is home to more than 5 million people.

The flash flooding in the region, a tourist hotspot during summer months, saw rural villages submerged in water and rendered main highways unusable on Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

A courthouse was turned into a temporary morgue in the region’s capital, the city of Valencia.

At least 40 people, six of whom were in a retirement home, died in the town of Paiporta in Valencia, Spanish state news agency EFE reported, citing its mayor.

Trains have been suspended in Valencia, as have other major public services in other affected regions. Schools, museums, and public libraries were closed into Thursday, according to the local government.

Flooding was also reported in and around the cities of Murcia and Malaga with more than 100 mm (4 inches) of rain falling in some areas. In Malaga, in the region of Andalusia on Spain’s southern coast, a 71-year-old British man died from hypothermia, the city’s mayor said.

What has the response been?

More than 1,000 members of the military have been deployed to assist in rescue efforts, Spain’s Defense Minister Margarita Robles said. Some areas can only be reached by helicopter.

Valencia’s regional leader Carlos Mazon told reporters early Wednesday that bodies were found as rescue teams began to reach areas previously cut off by the floods. As of Thursday morning, emergency services said they had reached all the affected areas.

The Spanish government sent emergency alerts on Tuesday asking people to stay indoors or seek high ground. Extreme rain warnings were put in place for some areas including around Valencia, according to Spain’s Meteorological Agency, AEMET. These warnings called for the potential of 200 mm (8 inches) of rain in less than 12 hours.

In some locations, the rainfall estimates were exceeded in even shorter periods of time. Chiva, which is east of Valencia, received 320 mm of rain in just over four hours, according to the European Severe Weather Database. The Valencia area averages 77 mm (3 inches) for the entire month of October.

However, many people were caught off guard, leaving it too late for them to seek safety. Some took to social media to vent their frustrations, claiming that they received the emergency alert in the midst of the storm.

Hannah Cloke, a professor of hydrology at the UK’s University of Reading, said the high death toll suggests Spain’s regional emergency alerts system failed.

“This suggests the system for alerting people to the dangers of floods in Valencia has failed, with fatal consequences. It is clear that people just don’t know what to do when faced with a flood, or when they hear warnings.”

Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez offered support, pledging his government would do all it could to help flood victims, as he urged people to remain vigilant.

Sanchez visited Valencia on Thursday, where he instructed people to “please, stay home, don’t leave,” adding that “the damage continues” and the priority is to save as many lives as possible.

The Spanish government has also decreed three days of official mourning, starting on Thursday.

Thousands in Valencia’s suburbs were still without power and running water on Thursday, as search operations and debris clearing continued.

The Spanish Securities and Emergencies department has issued weather warnings for many regions. Orange and yellow alerts remained in place in isolated parts of Valencia, while rain continues in Castellon, a province to the north.

Extreme weather warnings continue for portions of eastern and southern Spain, according to AEMET, with more rain expected.

What caused the disaster?

The torrential rain was likely caused by what Spanish meteorologists call a “gota fría,” or cold drop, which refers to a pool of cooler air high in the atmosphere that can separate from the jet stream, causing it to move slowly and often lead to high-impact rainfall. This phenomenon is most common in autumn.

Figuring out the precise role climate change played in Spain’s devastating floods will require further analysis, but scientists are clear that global warming, driven by fossil fuel pollution, makes these types of extreme rainfall events more likely and more intense.

Hotter oceans fuel stronger storms and the Mediterranean hit its highest temperature on record in August. Warmer air is also able to hold more moisture, soaking it up like a sponge to wring out in the form of torrential rain.

“We can’t say anything on the fly,” said Ernesto Rodríguez Camino, senior state meteorologist and a member of the Spanish Meteorological Association. He added though that “in the context of climate change, these types of intense and exceptional rare rainfall events are going to become more frequent and more intense and, therefore, destructive.”

How does this compare?

This week’s floods are the most deadly Spain has suffered in decades.

In 1959, 144 people were killed by a flood in the Spanish town of Ribadelago. However, that disaster was caused by the failure of a dam, releasing water from the Vega de Tera reservoir, rather than a natural event.

The last comparable natural disaster was in 1996, when floods killed 87 people near the town of Biescas in the Pyrenees mountains.

While Spain has experienced significant autumn storms in recent years, nothing comes close to the devastation wrought over the past few days.

The disaster is on a similar level to flooding seen in Germany and Belgium in 2021, which killed more than 230 people.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

In subtle but increasingly vocal ways, Israel’s military leaders are signaling that the country has achieved all it can militarily in Lebanon and Gaza, and it’s time for the politicians to strike a deal.

It comes as Lebanon’s prime minister says that a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel could be imminent. Both candidates for the American presidency have also made clear they do not want wars in Gaza and Lebanon to be on the agenda when they take office.

When the Israel Defense Forces’ top general sat down with officers in northern Gaza – who are waging one of the military’s fiercest operations since last year’s invasion – he went further than ever in suggesting the military phases of both conflicts should end.

“In the north, there’s a possibility of reaching a sharp conclusion,” Herzi Halevi, Chief of the General Staff, said, referring to the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. In Gaza, he said, “if we take out the northern Gaza Brigade commander, it’s another collapse…. I don’t know what we’ll encounter tomorrow, but this pressure brings us closer to more achievements.”

What those achievements should be is the subject of much consternation.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly pledged “absolute victory.” His defense minister and longtime political tormentor Yoav Gallant has bristled at that goal. In August, he told a closed-door parliamentary committee meeting that the idea of “absolute victory” in Gaza was “nonsense,” according to Israeli media.

Gallant’s dim view of Netanyahu’s war goal was made official when earlier this week he reportedly sent a private memo to the prime minister and the rest of his cabinet saying that the war had lost its way.

In Gaza, he wrote, Israel should ensure the release of the remaining hostages, make sure there is no military threat from Hamas, and promote civilian rule. That’s a far cry from the existing, maximalist war aim of eliminating Hamas’ military and governance capabilities.

Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said Wednesday he was optimistic for a potential Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire to be struck “within the next few hours or days,” after speaking with US envoy Amos Hochstein, who arrived in the region on Thursday.

Israel has for the past month carried out a massive, country-wide bombing campaign in Lebanon, and killed Hezbollah’s elusive leader, Hassan Nasrallah. In his interview, Mikati indicated that Hezbollah is no longer insisting that its conflict with Israel will only cease once the war in Gaza ends. That would allow it to accept a ceasefire without an end to the Gaza campaign.

Gallant has said Hamas and Hezbollah have now been rendered totally ineffective as Iranian proxies.

“These two organizations, Hamas and Hezbollah, that were groomed for years as a long arm against the State of Israel, are no longer an effective tool in the hands of Iran,” Gallant said during a memorial service on Sunday. “We know that some goals cannot be achieved by military action alone, and thus, we must honor our moral obligations to bring our captives home, despite the painful compromises involved.”

And yet Netanyahu has remained defiant. When the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, returned from recess this week, the prime minister seemed to repeat his maximalist goal, and indicated he was unlikely to accept a conclusion anytime soon: “The absolute victory is an orderly and consistent work plan that we fulfill step by step,” he said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The winner of the US presidential election could have a sweeping impact on the contentious relationship between the world’s two largest economies and rival superpowers.

But in China, where election news is filtered through heavily censored state and social media, the focus has been more on spectacle than substance – with a sense that no matter who wins, the tensions of the US-China relationship will remain.

Part of the reason for that may well be a consensus in China – from policymakers down to regular citizens – that the die is cast for a US administration that wants to constrain China’s rise on the global stage, regardless of whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former president Donald Trump wins.

Trump’s last term saw the Republican slap tariffs on hundreds of billions worth of Chinese goods, launch a campaign against Chinese telecoms giant Huawei and use racist language to describe the virus that causes Covid-19, which was first identified in China.

The past four years under President Joe Biden have seen a tone shift and effort to stabilize communication. But US concern about China’s threat to its national security has only deepened, with Biden targeting Chinese tech industries with investment and export controls, as well as tariffs, while also appearing to sidestep longstanding US policy in how he has voiced support for Taiwan – a “red line” issue in the relationship for Beijing, which claims the self-ruling island democracy as its own.

Meanwhile, people in China have seen their economic prospects dim as the country has struggled to fully rebound following its stringent pandemic controls amid a wider slowdown and property market crisis, among other challenges.

So, while the presidential campaigns are still playing across China’s daily news coverage and online discussions, interest in the candidates and their policies appears muted compared with past US elections.

“(It) doesn’t matter who it is (that wins),” one social media user wrote in a popular comment on China’s X-like platform Weibo. “Their containment of China won’t ease.”

Watching the ‘turmoil’

As the campaigns unfolded over recent months, Beijing’s state media has honed in on social discord and polarization in the US.

In recent days, the top post under the “US election” hashtag on Weibo has been about American concerns over potential post-election violence. The post, by an arm of state broadcaster CCTV, cites survey data from US media.

A recent cartoon from state-owned newspaper China Daily circulated in domestic media showed the Statue of Liberty being crushed in the jaws of a dragon labeled “political violence.”

“All walks of life in the United States are highly nervous, and public opinion is in turmoil,” reporters from state-run news agency Xinhua wrote in a recent dispatch, which also noted that “as political polarization and divisions in public opinion intensified in this year’s US election, political violence has also intensified.”

A magazine affiliated with Xinhua has alternatively portrayed the elections as “lacking hope,” being ultimately decided by “invisible forces” of power, like Wall Street.

Some nationalist bloggers have published videos and posts at times gleefully playing up what they describe as the potential for a post-election American “civil war” – rhetoric echoed in chatter on social media platform Weibo, which is heavily censored and largely dominated by nationalist voices.

While picking up genuine concerns reported by American and international media in what has been a contentious and violent US election cycle, the coverage and conversation appears geared to telegraph the superiority of China’s own political system. There, China’s ruling Communist Party has an iron grip on political power and discourse.

But despite the coverage, many in China have also keenly observed the democratic process – and pointed out the contrast to their own.

“There’s no perfect system, but at least they allow people to question them,” one social media user said on Weibo.

Candidate of choice?

Both Harris and Trump have been hot topics on Chinese social media platforms.

Harris appeared to be relatively unknown to Chinese social media users prior to becoming the Democratic candidate after Biden’s July withdrawal from the race.

Since then, many posts and videos on Tiktok’s sister video app Douyin have mocked the vice president, for example picking on her laugh – in line with what is often a chauvinistic tone on China’s social media platforms and echoing comments made by Trump himself.

Some posted clips of Harris’ speeches have a positive spin, however. Those point to her middle-class background and rise to the second-highest American office, a contrast to today’s China where the top echelons are stacked with men who often hail from politically elite families.

“This is a true ordinary person’s story,” read one comment with hundreds of likes posted under a video with a clip of a recent Harris speech.

Trump has at times captured tongue-in-cheek admiration across the Chinese internet. As president he earned the nickname Chuan Jianguo, or “Trump, the (Chinese) nation builder” – a quip to suggest his isolationist foreign policy and divisive domestic agenda were helping Beijing to overtake Washington on the global stage.

But after the tumult of the past eight years, Trump fever appears to have cooled.

“People are not optimistic about these two candidates … as their image and abilities can’t compare to those of past figures,” said Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Shanghai’s Fudan University. That’s one reason why the level of Chinese public interest in this election appears lower than in the previous two votes, he said.

View from the top

Whoever wins the US race, Communist Party leaders likely expect there will be little improvement in tense ties, analysts said.

“Looking to the future, regardless of whether Harris or Trump becomes the next US president, the continuity in US policy toward China will almost certainly outweigh any potential major shifts,” said Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing.

Beijing is careful not to directly comment on any views of the election, but likely sees Trump as bringing more uncertainly – and thus risk – into the relationship. The former president has threatened upwards of 60% tariffs on all imports from China and is known for his volatile foreign policy.

But Beijing could see benefit in that if it weakens US overseas partnerships, observers say. The Biden administration has sought to work more closely with allies in Europe and Asia to counter what it sees as the “most serious long-term challenge to the international order” – China, while Trump has repeatedly questioned traditional US alliances.

Chinese leaders will also be closely watching how a Trump presidency would handle the war in Ukraine – with Beijing likely wary of him taking steps to mend US relations with Russia and President Vladimir Putin, a critical ally for Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the global stage. The end of that war – which Trump has claimed he can quickly achieve – would also likely bring more US focus back to Asia-Pacific, which China doesn’t want to see.

But Trump is still seen in Beijing’s policy circles as likely to drive a more fractious relationship with China than Harris would.

The vice president is expected to tread a similar path to that laid by Biden – maintaining pressure on China to limit the development of its technology and military, but trying to keep some exchange and dialogue open.

“That means it will be a mixture of tension, friction, and some limited degree of exchanges and cooperation … (while) Trump would present greater challenges to US-China relations. The main issue is that (Trump) handles US-China relations in an unconventional manner, lacking a sense of proportion and boundaries,” said Wu in Shanghai.

“The most you can say is that the challenges to the relationship will vary depending on who is in office.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Nondairy milk lovers, rejoice.

Starting next week, Starbucks will stop charging coffee drinkers who wish to customize their drinks with nondairy milk options an extra fee, the company announced Wednesday.

The change will go into effect on Nov. 7, the day the company will launch its holiday menu, Starbucks said in a release.

Starbucks said dropping the extra charge will make ‘it easier for customers to make their Starbucks beverage their own’ by customizing popular drink recipes with nondairy milk options, including soy milk, oat milk, almond milk or coconut milk, according to the release.

‘Core to the Starbucks Experience is the ability to customize your beverage to make it yours. By removing the extra charge for non-dairy milks we’re embracing all the ways our customers enjoy their Starbucks,’ Brian Niccol, Starbucks’ chairman and CEO, said in the release.

Substituting a nondairy milk is the second-most-requested customization from customers, according to Starbucks. It falls behind adding a shot of espresso.

The company estimates that customers who pay to modify their milk choices will get a price reduction of more than 10% when the change goes into effect.

‘This is just one of many changes we’ll make to ensure a visit to Starbucks is worth it every time,’ Niccol said in the release.

Starbucks announced earlier that it will discontinue its Oleato olive oil drinks in early November.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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In this exclusive StockCharts video, Joe shows a specific candlestick pattern that, when it develops at the right time, can signal the start of a new upleg. He uses NVDA, MSFT and GLD to explain how this can setup at different times and can give a timely signal to look to enter or in some cases a signal to exit. Joe then covers TNX and some commodities like Silver, Oil and Copper. Finally, he goes through the symbol requests that came through this week, including GOOGL, GBTC, and more.

This video was originally published on October 30, 2024. Click this link to watch on StockCharts TV.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

When the stock market hesitates to move in either direction, it becomes challenging to identify potential trading candidates. For this reason, it’s a good idea to have a checklist of items to go over during the trading day.

One item on my checklist is to run my SCTR (StockCharts Technical Rank, pronounced “scooter”) scan, which looks for stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) with a SCTR rank above 76, 78, or 80. The scan results give you a good idea of which industries show technical strength. The scan is provided at the bottom of this article.

When I ran the scan on October 30 and sorted the results table by the Universe and SCTR columns, several regional banks made the list. This isn’t surprising, given that the Federal Reserve has started cutting interest rates and will likely make further cuts. The demand for consumer loans increases when interest rates are lower.

FIGURE 1. SCAN RESULTS, OCTOBER 30. Several regional banks were filtered in the scan.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Naturally, I pulled up the chart of the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE). Since August, KRE has been in a gradual uptrend, accompanied by a rising S&P Financial Sector Bullish Percent Index ($BPFINA) and a high SCTR score.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF KRE. The regional banks are moving within an uptrend channel and have a high SCTR score and BPI.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Looking back at the scan results, I can save them to a ChartList, analyze the regional banks, and decide which ones to keep and delete. I prefer to do this by viewing the charts in CandleGlance, which I have set up with moving averages and the On Balance Volume indicator. I look to see which stocks are trending up with an OBV that’s above its 20-day SMA.

Glancing at the candlestick charts, the stocks that stand out are as follows:

  • Barclays Plc (BCS)
  • Cincinnati Financial Corp. (CINF)
  • Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
  • Keycorp (KEY)
  • PNC Financial Services (PNC)
  • US Bancorp (USB)

I transferred these symbols to my “watchlists” ChartList, which is where I have all stocks and ETFs that are in consideration. If you haven’t done so, install the StockCharts ChartList Framework to organize your ChartLists.

Analyzing Regional Banks

The next step involves analyzing each of these charts in more detail. Which ones have momentum behind them to make them trend higher? The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) and the relative strength index (RSI) help confirm the momentum. Of the six, the three that stand out are KEY, PNC, and USB. Let’s look at these charts.

Keycorp (KEY)

The momentum looks like it’s slowing in Key Bank’s stock price (see daily chart below), which could be because it’s at or close to a resistance level.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF KEY BANK’S STOCK PRICE. KEY is in an uptrend although the momentum is slowing down. The last three bars, RSI, and MACD are showing sideways movement.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Looking at a three-year timeframe, you’ll see that the stock price is close to the February 2023 high (not shown here). The last three bars show a harami followed by an inverted hammer. So, there could be a slight pullback here, at least to its 25-day exponential moving average.

The RSI and MACD confirm the slowdown in momentum. If KEY pulls back and reverses with increasing momentum, I would consider entering a position. KEY’s all-time high is $23.44, so the stock has room for upside movement.

PNC Financial (PNC)

PNC’s chart is similar to that of KEY. The stock price is trending higher but momentum is slow at the moment. Trading volume has been relatively low in the last few days. If the RSI and MACD indicate increasing momentum and volume picks up, it will alert me to consider adding PNC to my portfolio.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF PNC BANK STOCK PRICE. PNC’s stock price is trending higher but trading volume is relatively low. The RSI and MACD are indicating slow momentum.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

PNC’s all-time high is $202.80, so the stock price has the potential to move higher. It’ll first have to break out of its sideways move.

US Bancorp (USB)

Of the three, US Bank’s stock price has the most chop. The 25-day EMA was erratic, so it was removed from this chart. The 50-day SMA is a smoother measure of the overall trend.

FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF US BANK STOCK. USB is within a trading range. An upside breakout with above-average volume and a rising RSI and MACD crossover would be an indication of an upward-sloping trend.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

KRE must break out from its sideways trading range before considering a long entry. Volume is relatively low, the RSI is moving sideways, and the MACD indicates a slowdown in momentum.

The Bottom Line

The sideways movement seen in the charts that we discussed here reflects the sentiment of the overall market. Earnings and economic data aren’t moving the market much, and trading volume is relatively low. There’s an election and a Fed meeting coming up. The Fed decision will likely have an impact on the price action of regional bank stocks. Does it mean you have to wait until November 7 to make your trading decisions? Patience is key, but if you see an upside breakout with strong momentum that’s convincing, you may have an opportunity to get in early on an upside move.


The SCTR Scan

[country is US] and [sma(20,volume) > 100000] and [[SCTR.us.etf x 76] or [SCTR.large x 76] or [SCTR.us.etf x 78] or [SCTR.large x 78] or [SCTR.us.etf x 80] or [SCTR.large x 80]]


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.