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As Israel and Hamas edge closer to a possible ceasefire-hostage agreement, a small number of families whose loved ones remain captive in Gaza are saying “No” to a deal.

Many members of the Tikva (Hope) Forum fringe group, including settlers in the occupied West Bank, hold right-wing ideologies. They oppose the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israel as part of the deal, arguing that a partial release of Israeli hostages from Gaza is unacceptable. Instead, they insist that defeating Hamas through strong military action should be the top priority, and is the best strategy to retrieve hostages.

The Tikva Forum, which says it was founded to bring the hostages home “from a place of strength, faith, national responsibility and concern for the unity and security of all Israelis,” is distinct from the Hostage Families Forum – which represents the majority of the hostage families, and has been leading protests advocating for a ceasefire and hostage deal.

Tzvika Mor, Tikva Forum’s co-founder, believes his son Eitan, who is being held in Gaza, would want him to oppose the deal.

“I know definitely that Eitan wants me to make sure that the State of Israel will be safe,” he said, adding that if his son was not in captivity, he would have been “a soldier in Gaza or Lebanon or Syria.”

The first phase of the deal is expected to see the release of children, women, the sick and the elderly who are held in Gaza for the freeing of hundreds of Palestinians from Israeli jails, some of whom were accused of killing Israelis.

Boaz Miran, who is also part of the Tikva Forum, also opposes the deal. His brother Omri was kidnapped by Hamas-led militants on October 7, 2023 from Kibbutz Nahal Oz in southern Israel, leaving behind his wife, Lishay, their two young daughters. The first phase of the deal is unlikely to see his brother released, given that it prioritizes women, children and the elderly.

Boaz has campaigned against the deal along with other families attached to the Tikva Forum. Members of the group often share views similar to those of Israel’s far-right politicians, who also oppose the deal, such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who threatened to withdraw from Netanyahu’s coalition if a deal is signed, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who said a deal would be a “catastrophe.”

Both ministers are settlers with hardline views about Palestinians.

‘Monsters as our neighbors’

Mor, the co-founder for the forum, resides in the Jewish settlement of Kiryat Arba, near Hebron in the occupied West Bank. His son was kidnapped by Palestinian militants from the Nova Festival on October 7. He said that at least 15 families are part of the forum, but that many prefer to stay out of the limelight.

Miran and other members of the Tikva forum reject the Gaza deal in its current form, saying that hostages should come back in one wave, and that Palestinian “terrorists” should not be freed. “We believe all the captives should be returned in one deal, from a position of strength,” Miran said.

He also believes that the release of Palestinian prisoners would be catastrophic for Israel.

Israel holds at least 10,000 Palestinian prisoners, according to the Commission of Detainees Affairs and the Palestinian Prisoners’ Society, including 3,376 people who have been held under administrative detention – a controversial procedure that allows Israeli authorities to hold people indefinitely on security grounds without trial or charge, sometimes based on evidence that isn’t made public. Ninety-five children are currently under administrative detention, according to the Commission of Detainees Affairs and the Palestinian Prisoners’ Society.

The proposed deal is set to be implemented in three phases, the first of which would last 42 days. In the first phase, 33 hostages held by Hamas and its allies since October 7 will be released, including women, children, men over the age of 50 and wounded people. Israel would release “many hundreds” of Palestinian prisoners in exchange, an Israeli official said, including Palestinians convicted of killing Israelis.

Negotiations to reach the second and third phases of a ceasefire agreement – which is intended to end the war – would begin on the 16th day of the implementation of the deal, according to the Israeli official.

Miran said that while he celebrates the release of each hostage, the deal as it stands would mean that the joy of some families would mean sadness for others, adding that “this deal will determine the fate of my brother Omri to rot in the tunnels of Hamas for months or even years to come.”

The Israeli government believes 98 hostages are still being held in Gaza – most of whom were abducted on October 7, 2023, dozens of whom are believed to be dead.

The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has raged for 15 months, turning Gaza into a wasteland and displacing at least 90% of Palestinians since October 2023, according to the United Nations. More than 46,000 people have been killed – mostly women and children, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

India on Thursday became the fourth country to successfully achieve an unmanned docking in space, a feat seen as pivotal for future missions as New Delhi cements its place as a global space power.

The United States, Russia and China are the only other countries to have developed and tested the docking capability.

“Spacecraft docking successfully completed! A historic moment,” the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) said on X.

The Indian space agency’s mission, called the Space Docking Experiment (SpaDex), involved deploying two small spacecraft, weighing about 220 kilograms each, into low-earth orbit. The two spacecraft, called Target and Chaser, blasted off from the Satish Dhawan Space Center in southern Andhra Pradesh state on December 30 aboard an Indian-made PSLV rocket.

On Thursday, they conducted a rendezvous before docking together.

India’s “SpaDex mission marks the beginning of a new era in space exploration, showcasing India’s technological prowess and ambition,” Minister for Space Jitendra Singh said on X at the time it launched.

In-docking technology is critical for future space endeavors, such as satellite servicing and when multiple rocket launches are required to achieve mission objectives.

Domestically developed docking technology will be crucial if India is to succeed in advancing its ambition of putting an Indian national on the moon, building a home-grown space station, and returning lunar samples, according to the ISRO.

The technology will allow India to transfer materials from one satellite or spacecraft to another, such as payloads, lunar samples or, eventually, humans in space, Singh told reporters at a press conference on December 31.

As part of the mission, the docked spacecraft will also demonstrate the transfer of electric power between them, once they are linked. This is essential for operating in-space robotics, spacecraft control, and payload operations during future missions.

Before the docking, India on Sunday conducted a “trial attempt” where the two satellites were brought progressively closer together in orbit until they reached 3 meters apart, before moving back to a “safe distance.”

The successful docking came after the experiment was twice postponed on January 7 and 9 due to technical issues, and the spacecraft drifting more than expected during a maneuver to bring them closer together.

A global space race

India’s space ambitions have accelerated under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was elected to a third term last June and who has tried to assert India’s place on the global stage.

In 2023, India joined an elite space club becoming the fourth country to land a spacecraft on the moon. The historic Chandrayaan-3 mission, the first to make a soft landing close to the moon’s unexplored South Pole, has collected samples that are helping scientists understand how the moon was formed and evolved over time.

As part of its ambitious plans, India aims to launch its first crewed mission to space in the next few years, and put an astronaut on the moon – a feat only ever achieved by the US – by 2040.

The country has also set its sights on building its own space station by 2035, which will be called the “Bharatiya Antariksha Station,” and launching its first orbital mission to Venus in 2028. It also plans to return moon samples as part of its ongoing lunar Chandarayaan program in 2027.

India has also made a major push to commercialize its space sector in recent years, allowing private enterprise and easing approvals for foreign investment, which has focused on building and launching small satellites into low-Earth orbit more cheaply.

For Sunday’s docking experiment, the rocket and spacecraft were integrated and tested at private company Ananth Technologies, in a first for the country.

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Sydney (Reuters) — Voting began on Thursday to elect a new government in Vanuatu, a month after a 7.3-magnitude earthquake struck the Pacific island nation’s capital Port Vila, killing at least 16 people, triggering landslides and damaging several major buildings.

A snap election had to be called after Vanuatu President Nikenike Vurobaravu in November dissolved the parliament following a no-confidence motion against him and Prime Minister Charlot Salwai.

Vanuatu has experienced 18 months of political instability, with three prime ministers in that time.

The country’s constitution requires an election within 60 days after the dissolution of parliament. There are more than 300,000 registered voters to elect representatives for 52 seats.

Official results could be available only after several days as ballots have to be brought to Port Vila from outlying islands.

Despite widespread damage from the earthquake, Vanuatu’s Principal Electoral Officer Guilain Malessas said the distribution of ballot boxes would be completed by Thursday morning.

“We are grateful for the good weather conditions currently in Vanuatu. The deployments are proceeding safely and on time,” Malessas told the Vanuatu Daily Post on Wednesday.

Among the buildings damaged in December’s earthquake was one housing the new U.S. embassy, which only opened last year.

Washington has been working to boost its diplomatic presence in the Pacific to counter what it sees as a growing threat from China, its main strategic rival.

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Kyiv, Ukraine (AP) — British Prime Minister Keir Starmer arrived in Ukraine Thursday with a pledge to help guarantee the country’s security for a century, days before Donald Trump is sworn in as US president.

The British government says Starmer and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will sign a “100-Year Partnership” treaty in Kyiv, covering areas including defense, science, energy and trade.

Starmer’s unannounced visit is his first trip to Ukraine since he took office in July. He visited the country in 2023 when he was opposition leader, and has twice held talks with Zelensky in 10 Downing Street since becoming prime minister.

One of Ukraine’s biggest military backers, the UK has pledged 12.8 billion pounds ($16 billion) in military and civilian aid to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion three years ago, and has trained more than 50,000 Ukrainian troops on British soil. Starmer is due to announce another 40 million pounds ($49 million) for Ukraine’s post-war economic recovery.

But the UK’s role is dwarfed by that of the United States, and there is deep uncertainty over the fate of American support for Ukraine once Trump takes office on January 20. The president-elect has balked at the cost of US aid to Kyiv, says he wants to bring the war to a swift end and is planning to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, for whom he has long expressed admiration.

Kyiv’s allies have rushed to flood Ukraine with as much support as possible before Trump’s inauguration, with the aim of putting Ukraine in the strongest position possible for any future negotiations to end the war.

Zelensky has said that in any peace negotiation, Ukraine would need assurances about its future protection from its much bigger neighbor.

Britain says its 100-year pledge is part of that assurance, and will help ensure Ukraine is “never again vulnerable to the kind of brutality inflicted on it by Russia,” which seized Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and attempted a full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The deal commits the two sides to cooperate on defense — especially maritime security against Russian activity in the Batlic Sea, Black Sea and Sea of Azov — and on technology projects including drones, which have become vital weapons for both sides in the war. The treaty also includes a system to help track stolen Ukrainian grain exported by Russia from occupied parts of the country.

“Putin’s ambition to wrench Ukraine away from its closest partners has been a monumental strategic failure. Instead, we are closer than ever, and this partnership will take that friendship to the next level,” Starmer said ahead of the visit.

“This is not just about the here and now, it is also about an investment in our two countries for the next century, bringing together technology development, scientific advances and cultural exchanges, and harnessing the phenomenal innovation shown by Ukraine in recent years for generations to come.”

Zelensky says he and Starmer also will discuss a plan proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron that would see troops from France and other Western countries stationed in Ukraine to oversee a ceasefire agreement.

Zelensky has said any such proposal should go alongside a timeline for Ukraine to join NATO. The alliance’s 32 member countries say that Ukraine will join one day, but not until after the war. Trump has appeared to sympathize with Putin’s position that Ukraine should not be part of NATO.

As the grinding war nears the three-year mark, both Russia and Ukraine are pushing for battlefield gains ahead of possible peace talks. Ukraine has started a second offensive in Russia’s Kursk region, where it is struggling to hang onto a chunk of territory it captured last year, and has stepped up drone and missile attacks on weapons sites and fuel depots inside Russia.

Moscow is slowly taking territory at the cost of high casualties, along the 600-mile (1,000-kilometer) front line in eastern Ukraine and launching intense barrages at Ukraine’s energy system, seeking to deprive Ukrainians of heat and light in the depths of winter. A major Russian ballistic and cruise missile attack on regions across Ukraine on Wednesday, and compelling authorities to shut down the power grid in some areas.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Government inspectors documented unsanitary conditions at several Boar’s Head deli meat plants, not just the factory that was shut down last year after a deadly outbreak of listeria poisoning, federal records show.

Newly released reports from Boar’s Head plants in New Castle, Indiana; Forrest City, Arkansas; and Petersburg, Virginia, described multiple instances of meat and fat residue left on equipment and walls, dripping condensation falling on food, mold, insects and other problems dating back roughly six years. Last May, one inspector documented “general filth” in a room at the Indiana plant.

The U.S. Agriculture Department released the inspection records in response to Freedom of Information Act requests from The Associated Press and other news organizations.

The problems documented at the three factories echo some of the violations found at the Jarratt, Virginia, plant linked to the food poisoning outbreak. The newly released reports describe:

Boar’s Head officials said in an email Monday that the violations documented in the three factories “do not meet our high standards.” The company’s remaining plants continue to operate under normal USDA oversight, they added. The Sarasota, Florida-based company has marketed itself for decades as a premier provider of deli meats and cheeses, advertising “excellence that stands apart in every bite.”

Records from a fourth Boar’s Head plant in New Holland, Michigan, do not show similar problems.

Boar’s Head stopped making liverwurst and shuttered its Jarratt, Virginia, plant in September after listeria poisoning tied to the product sickened more than 60 people in 19 states, including 10 who died.

Health officials in Maryland initially discovered listeria contamination in a package of unopened liverwurst. The company recalled more than 7 million pounds of ready-to-eat deli meat and poultry sold nationwide. About 2.6 million pounds was eventually recovered, according to the Agriculture Department’s Food Safety and Inspection Service.

The conditions revealed at the other Boar’s Head plants are “really concerning,” said Thomas Gremillion, director of food policy at the Consumer Federation of America, a nonprofit advocacy group.

“It’s reasonable for some people to decide they don’t want to eat deli meat,” he said. “Companies like Boar’s Head, they should have to earn consumers’ trust.”

Boar’s Head faces multiple lawsuits connected to the outbreak.

“This makes me extremely angry and sad,” said Garett Dorman, whose mother, Linda Dorman, 73, of Oxford, Pennsylvania, died in July after eating Boar’s Head liverwurst. She had cancer, and liverwurst was one of the few foods she would eat, he said. He is suing the company, according to court documents filed by Marler Clark, a Seattle law firm.

“I believe Boar’s Head needs to completely revamp their program at all of their facilities,” Dorman said in an email. “Boar’s Head needs to put the welfare of people as their highest priority.”

Lawmakers including Sen. Richard Blumenthal and Rep. Rosa DeLauro have sharply criticized USDA officials for not taking stronger action against the company, despite documentation of repeated problems. The USDA inspector general is reviewing the agency’s handling of the situation. The U.S. Department of Justice is investigating whether criminal charges are warranted.

“The new records released by FSIS should be considered by the DOJ, especially as they potentially point to a wider, systemic problem,” the lawmakers said in a statement. “These reports make clear that there is a culture of noncompliance of critical safety and sanitary protocols.”

In a report released Friday, USDA officials said “inadequate sanitation practices” contributed to the outbreak. Product residue, condensation and structural problem in the buildings were key factors, the agency found. State inspectors working in partnership with USDA had documented mold, insects, liquid dripping from ceilings, and meat and fat residue on walls, floors and equipment, the AP previously reported.

USDA officials have promised new measures to control listeria in plants that make ready-to-eat foods, including broader testing, updated training and tools, increased inspections, more food safety reviews and stronger oversight of state inspectors who act on behalf of the agency.

Boar’s Head is hiring a “food safety culture manager,” according to Frank Yiannas, a former official at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration who is now advising the company.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Meta is set to cut about 5% of its workforce, focusing on the company’s lowest-performing staffers, CNBC confirmed Tuesday.

CEO Mark Zuckerberg informed employees about the decision to “move out low performers faster” in a memo posted on the company’s internal Workplace forum on Tuesday. Zuckerberg told employees 2025 will “be an intense year.”

The company specified that it is “exiting approximately 5% of our lowest performers” in a separate message posted by a company director. Meta has more than 72,000 employees, according to its most recent quarterly report.

Meta said employees affected by the layoffs will be notified by Feb. 10 and receive severance in line with what the company has provided previously. The cuts represent Meta’s largest layoffs since it eliminated 21,000 jobs, or nearly a quarter of its workforce, in 2022 and 2023.

Bloomberg was first to report the cuts, citing an internal memo.

The move follows several major operational changes within Meta aimed at building closer ties with President-elect Donald Trump.

Last week, Zuckerberg announced Meta would end its third-party fact-checking program in favor of a “Community Notes” model used on Elon Musk’s platform X, where individual users provide more context to posts.

“The recent elections also feel like a cultural tipping point towards once again prioritizing speech, so we’re going to get back to our roots and focus on reducing mistakes, simplifying our polices and restoring free expression on our platforms,” Zuckerberg said in a video announcement.

Below is Zuckeberg’s internal memo, which CNBC obtained.

Meta is working on building some of the most important technologies of the world. AI, glasses as the next computing platform and the future of social media. This is going to be an intense year, and I want to make sure we have the best people on our teams.

I’ve decided to raise the bar on performance management and move out low performers faster. We typically manage out people who aren’t meeting expectations over the course of a year, but now we’re going to do more extensive performance-based cuts during this cycle, with the intention of back filling these roles in 2025. We won’t manage out everyone who didn’t meet expectations for the last period if we’re optimistic about their future performance, and for those we do let go, we’ll provide generous severance in line with what we provided with previous cuts.

We’ll follow up with more guidance for managers ahead of calibrations. People who are impacted will be notified on February 10 or later for those outside the U.S.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The election of Donald Trump in November and a swing back to Republican power in Washington is already starting to make an impact in the business world, according to Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon.

The bank executive said on a conference call Wednesday that other CEOs are feeling better about the direction of the economy and their businesses since the presidential election, even though Trump has yet to take office.

“There has been a meaningful shift in CEO confidence, particularly following the results of the U.S. election,” Solomon said, according to a transcript from FactSet.

“Additionally, there is a significant backlog from sponsors and an overall increased appetite for dealmaking supported by an improving regulatory backdrop,” he continued.

The comments line up with some survey data that suggests renewed confidence among business leaders. The latest Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions showed an improved outlook for the next 12 months. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to its highest level since October 2018 in December.

To be sure, executives on JPMorgan Chase’s earnings call said that the optimism among business leaders has not yet resulted in loan growth, according to a FactSet transcript.

Stocks rose sharply in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s win, as investors cheered the prospect of lower taxes and fewer regulations. However, many of those gains have since disappeared, in part due to a recent rise in interest rates.

Trump, who is set to return to the White House on Monday, is seen as broadly more business-friendly than outgoing President Joe Biden. During his campaign, Trump floated lowering taxes and reducing regulation, including around energy. However, his proposed tariffs have made some investors and business leaders nervous about the potential for higher prices and a disruptive trade war.

Solomon’s comments came on a conference call discussing Goldman’s fourth-quarter results. The bank beat estimates on the top and bottom lines for the period, with its profit roughly doubling year over year.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Foul-mouthed superheroes and family-friendly fare propped up the domestic box office during the final months of 2024.

Full-year ticket sales were down just 3.4% from 2023, reaching $8.74 billion, a far cry from the nearly 27% shortage seen at the midway point of 2024.

The combination of Disney and Marvel’s “Deadpool & Wolverine,” Pixar’s “Inside Out 2,” Disney Animation’s “Moana 2” and Universal’s “Wicked,” all of which were released after June, buoyed ticket sales and turned a billion-dollar deficit into just $300 million, according to data from Comscore.

“While 2024 was one of the most challenging ever for theatres, the massive comeback that began in June due to the residual impact of the strikes and resultant production delays that threw the release slate into disarray in the early part of the year is nothing short of remarkable,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore.

Box-office analysts had predicted the 2024 box office would lag significantly behind the $9 billion tallied in 2023. After all, the production calendar was disrupted by dual Hollywood labor strikes the year prior, postponing major blockbuster releases into the second half of 2024. Some were even delayed until 2025 and 2026.

“Expectations entering the year were saddled with the weight of release delays caused by industry strikes, on top of the ongoing adjustment to modern consumer habits that have taken hold in a world of shorter theatrical windows and increased demand for state-of-the-art experiences inside cinemas themselves,” said Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory.

The first-half ticket sales slump was a disappointment after the box office had seen steady annual growth in the wake of the pandemic. However, industry analysts foresee a rebound in 2025 and the potential to break the $10 billion mark in 2026.

The next two years are stacked with blockbuster franchises and films tied to popular, existing intellectual property. And while there has been some worry that the industry had become too inundated with licensed material, particularly in the superhero genre, 2024 has proven that audiences will still come out in droves for these films.

In fact, all of the top 10 highest-grossing films of 2024 were from major film franchises or tied to popular IP. And that’s a good sign, considering 2025 and 2026 are set to be packed with big titles.

“The year will see a resumption of a franchise-heavy-driven lineup,” wrote Eric Handler, managing director at Roth MKM, in a recent research note. “Vying for the highest-grossing movies of the year should be ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash,’ ‘Jurassic World: Rebirth’ and ‘Wicked: For Good,’ all of which should be able to surpass $400 [million].”

Disney, in particular, benefited from franchise films in 2024. The company is responsible for three of the four top-grossing films of the year — Pixar’s “Inside Out 2,” Marvel’s “Deadpool & Wolverine” and Disney Animation’s “Moana 2.”

“Inside Out 2” jump-started the box office, taking in more than $650 million domestically and becoming the first film since Warner Bros.′ “Barbie” to top $1 billion at the global box office.

Joy and Anxiety in a scene from ‘Inside Out 2.’ Disney

This was an import win for Disney’s Pixar animation hub. A once prolifically successful studio, Pixar has suffered at the box office in the wake of the pandemic. Much of its difficulties have come, in part, because Disney opted to debut a handful of animated features directly on streaming service Disney+ during theatrical closures and even once cinemas had reopened.

As a result, prior to “Inside Out 2,” no Disney animated feature from Pixar or its Walt Disney Animation studio had generated more than $480 million at the global box office since 2019. “Inside Out 2″ ultimately became the highest-grossing film of 2024.

The second-highest was Disney’s first-ever R-rated Marvel feature. “Deadpool & Wolverine” hit theaters in July and quickly earned the record for the highest debut of an R-rated film ever. It went on to top $1 billion at the global box office, the only R-rated film other than Warner Bros.′ “Joker” to do so, and also became the highest-grossing R-rated film of all time.

“Deadpool & Wolverine” brought a much-needed boost to the Marvel Cinematic Universe, which has struggled with consistency at the box office in the wake of the record-shattering “Avengers: Endgame” in 2019.

Handler said the superhero genre is seeking “a bit of redemption,” noting that Marvel has three major releases in 2025: “Captain America: Brave New World,” “Thunderbolts*” and “The Fantastic Four: First Steps.”

Warner Bros. will also debut its first film under James Gunn and Peter Safran, its new heads of the DC Studio. All eyes will be on “Superman: Legacy,” especially after the woeful box office of “Joker: Folie a Deux.”

Disney also had “Moana 2,” the fourth-highest-grossing film of the year. It arrived at Thanksgiving, shattering the record for the highest-opening film during that five-day holiday period with $221 million in domestic ticket sales. It went on to snag $404 million domestically and over $900 million globally.

Together, these films alongside other theatrical releases helped Disney reach more than $2.2 billion at the domestic box office last year, accounting for about 25% of the industry’s total haul.

Universal, fueled by “Wicked,” “Despicable Me 4,” “Twisters” and “Kung Fu Panda 4″ represented 21.6% of the total market share with $1.8 billion in box-office receipts for the year. “Wicked” was the third-highest-grossing film of 2024, collecting $432 million domestically and breaking the curse of movie musicals at the box office. It also became the highest debut of a Broadway adaptation in cinematic history.

Warner Bros. tallied $1.19 billion, or 13.7% market share. Sony snared $1 billion, or 11.5%, and Paramount rounded out the top five with $880 million, or 10%.

“The late year ’24 moviegoing rally has set up a solid 2025 for movie theatres,” Dergarabedian said. ”[G]iven the more stable calendar with a more orderly cadence, frequency and importantly a greater number of wide release films … the resultant momentum will virtually guarantee even bigger results for theatrical exhibition this year.”

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal is the distributor of “Wicked,” “Despicable Me 4,” “Twisters” and “Kung Fu Panda 4,” and the owner of Fandango.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

S&P 5850 has been the most important “line in the sand” for stocks since the pullback from the 6000 level in November 2024. With the SPX closing below that 5850 level on Friday, we see further corrective pressures with the 200-day moving average as a reasonable downside target. Today, we’ll break down a series of projection techniques that have helped us hone in on this potential area of support.

The Break of 5850 Completes a Head-and-Shoulders Top

One of the most widely-followed patterns in technical analysis, the fabled head-and-shoulders topping pattern, is formed by a major high surrounded by lower highs on each side. After the S&P 500 established a lower high in December, we immediately started looking for confirmation of this bearish pattern.

To confirm a head-and-shoulders top, and initiate downside targets on a chart, the price needs to break through the “neckline” formed by the swing lows between the head and two shoulders. While price pattern purists may advocate for a downward-sloping trendline to capture the intraday lows of the neckline, I’ve been focused on the price level of SPX 5850. As long as the S&P remained above that level of support, then the market could still be considered in a healthy bullish phase. But a close below the 5850 level on Friday tells me that this corrective move may just be getting started.

Let’s consider some ways to identify a potential downside objective, first using the pattern itself.

Calculating a Minimum Downside Objective

As delineated in Edwards and Magee’s classic book on price patterns, you can use the height of the head-and-shoulders pattern to identify an initial downside objective. Basically, take the distance from the top of the head to the neckline, and then subtract that value from the neckline at the breaking point.

Based on my measurements on the S&P 500 chart, this process yields a downside target of right around 5600. It’s worth noting that Edwards and Magee considered this a “minimum downside objective”, implying that there certainly could be further deterioration after that point has been reached.

Now let’s consider some other technical analysis tools that could help us to validate this potential downside target.

A Confluence of Support Confirms Our Measurement

If we create a Fibonacci framework using the August 2024 low and the December 2024 high, we can see a 38.2% retracement around 5725, which lines up fairly well with the swing low from late October. Perhaps this could serve as a short-term support level during the next downward phase?

As I review the chart, however, I’m struck by the fact that the 50% retracement lines up almost perfectly with our price pattern objective. Many early technical analysts, including the infamous W.D. Gann, favored the 50% retracement level as the most meaningful to watch.

You may also notice that the 200-day moving average is gently sloping higher, rapidly approaching our “confluence of support” around 5600. Given the agreement between multiple technical indicators on this price point, we consider it the most likely downside target given this week’s breakdown.

I would also point that while I feel that identifying price targets can be a helpful exercise, as it gives you a framework with which to evaluate further price action, the most important signals usually come from the price itself. How the S&P 500 would move between current levels and 5600 may tell us a great deal about the likelihood of finding support versus a more bearish scenario in the coming weeks.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Gold has been in the headlines over the last few months, perhaps more so now than in years. This heightened attention stems from shifts in global conditions, including worldwide inflation, escalating geopolitical tensions, a surge in central bank gold purchases, de-dollarization efforts, and the influence of BRICS nations.

If you follow financial media, $3,000 an ounce is the key number, according to analysts from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citi research, though their timings may vary.

Regardless, the global economy can change a lot over the next few months, especially when the new White House administration takes hold. So, despite analyst projections, keep a close eye on the technical action, as it will likely reflect these changes moving forward.

The weekly chart of gold futures ($GOLD) below gives a wider perspective on gold prices today.

FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES. Note how gold started going slightly parabolic in March 2024. Is it topping?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Gold began its upward trend after hitting a low during the fall of 2022. Throughout most of 2023, the yellow metal remained trapped within a broad trading range. However, in March 2024, gold broke out of this range, gaining significant momentum. This rally culminated in a three-month consolidation pattern, which is where gold is today.

Side note: While this consolidation pattern may resemble a symmetrical triangle to many, it lacks a few key characteristics—especially in terms of volume—so I am reluctant to label it as such.

Gold is generally considered to have a negative correlation with the US Dollar ($USD). As shown in the price overlay, the dollar has been rising since October 2024. Typically, when the dollar strengthens, gold prices decline. However, gold’s reaction to the dollar’s recent advance appears to be relatively subdued so far. So where does that leave us now, with rate-cut uncertainties weighing on market sentiment and inflation data, namely the CPI and PPI, set for release this week?

Shift over to a daily chart comparing $GOLD with the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), a popular choice for stock investors seeking exposure to gold. I’ll compare both charts since they differ slightly.

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES AND GLD. Note the differences between the ETF and the futures, despite their correlations. Note that $GOLD is EOD, so you are not seeing the current decline at the time of writing.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The difference between gold in the futures market and GLD is quite notable. Since futures trade 24 hours a day, price gaps are rare. Additionally, trading volume differs slightly, with the futures market typically attracting larger institutional traders compared to GLD.

If you follow financial news, you may have noticed that many analysts highlight $2,600 as a key support level, suggesting that gold has the potential for further upside. This would be comparable to $238-$240 in GLD. If gold breaks below those levels, the next swing low, one that marks the lowest price point of the consolidation, it would be near $2,544, and for GLD it’s at $236. A break below these levels would invalidate the current uptrend and potentially lead to more downside.

In this scenario, it’s important to reevaluate the broader context—considering technical, fundamental, and geopolitical factors—to gain a clearer understanding of what might be unfolding.

If you’re curious about the momentum and money flow for $GOLD and GLD, you’ll notice a slight difference in their readings. This disparity could provide some actionable insights.

Take a look at a daily chart of gold futures:

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES. Compare this to the GLD chart below, which has the same set of indicators.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

  • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a slight rise in momentum starting at the pattern’s low shown in the previous chart; currently, the RSI is above the 50-line and rising.
  • The Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) marks the difference between the futures and the ETF. Here, the ADL line has risen above the price whereas it had been moving below it and then unison to it. This paints a picture of bullish accumulation potentially leading price toward a positive breakout.

The daily chart of GLD doesn’t show the same ADL reading.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF GLD. The ADL reading is declining rather than ascending here.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The RSI is the same as the $GOLD chart above, but the ADL in GLD’s chart appears to be descending rather than ascending. This suggests that money flow is decreasing in GLD, while it is increasing in the gold futures market.

Here’s one way to interpret this: If the ADL is rising in the futures but declining in the ETF, it could indicate a divergence in behavior between both markets: institutional and large-scale traders are accumulating positions, signaling confidence in gold, while retail investors are taking profits, less certain about gold’s prospects or more concerned about its risks.

Essentially, this brings up the question: If the institutional traders are the so-called “smart money,” are they going to lead gold higher before the retail crowd jumps in? That’s something to keep in mind as you chart the market.

At the Close

Gold remains a focal point in today’s market, much of it driven by economic and macroeconomic concerns. If gold prices break out above or below its current consolidation range, keep an eye on the key levels. Also, note that institutional actions currently differ from retail sentiment. Is the “smart money” leaning more bullish? That’s something to consider in the days ahead.

Again, the larger economic context is slippery and subject to variants, meaning conditions can change quickly. So, if you want to invest in gold, monitor these changes closely.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.