In this video, Mary Ellen spotlights the areas driving market momentum following Taiwan Semiconductor’s record-breaking earnings report. She analyzes continued strength in semiconductors, utilities, industrials, and AI-driven sectors, plus highlights new leadership in robotics and innovation-focused ETFs like ARK. From there, Mary Ellen breaks down weakness in health care and housing stocks, shows how to refine trade entries using hourly charts, and compares today’s rally to past market surges. Watch as she explores setups in silver and examines individual stocks like Nvidia, BlackRock, and State Street.
New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.
If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.
The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.
How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.
While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.
From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.
New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up
If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.
As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.
Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.
The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”
The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.
Active Bullish Patterns
We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.
Failed Bearish Patterns
In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.
The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.
We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.
Here are some charts that reflect our areas of focus this week at
XLU Leads with New High
Even though the Utilities SPDR (XLU) cannot keep pace with the Technology SPDR (XLK) and Communication Services SPDR (XLC), it is in a leading uptrend. XLU formed a cup-with-handle from November to July and broke to new highs the last two weeks. ETFs hitting new highs are in strong uptrends and should be on our radar.
Metal Mania in 2025
In a tribute to Ozzy, metals are leading the way higher in 2025. The PerfChart below shows year-to-date performance for the continuous futures for 12 commodities. Copper, Platinum and Palladium are up more than 45% year-to-date, while Gold is up 28.38% and Silver is up 35.30%. QQQ is up 10.52% year-to-date, but lagging these metals. The other commodities are mixed.
Multi-Year Highs for Silver and Copper
The next chart shows 11 year bar charts for five metals. Gold broke out in early 2024 and led the metals move with an advance the last 21 months. Silver and copper broke out to multi-year highs. Platinum broke above its 2021 high and Palladium got in the action with an 18 month high. There is a clear message here: metals are moving higher and leading as a group.
Home Construction Hits Moment of Truth
The Home Construction ETF (ITB) hit its moment of truth as it rose to its falling 40-week SMA. Notice that ITB failed just below this moving average in August 2023. During the 2023-2024 uptrend, the 40-week SMA was more friendly as ITB reversed near this level in October 2023 and June 2024. ITB surged to the falling 40-week SMA in July, but the long-term trend is down and this area could be its nemesis.
Microsoft has laid off over 15,000 people so far in 2025. The stress of the belt-tightening has gotten to CEO Satya Nadella.
“Before anything else, I want to speak to what’s been weighing heavily on me, and what I know many of you are thinking about: the recent job eliminations,” Nadella wrote in a memo to employees Thursday.
After Microsoft’s latest labor reductions, investors pushed the stock’s closing price above $500 for the first time on July 9. The company announced the layoffs of about 9,000 people a week earlier. Microsoft employed 228,000 people as of June 2024. It hasn’t provided a new figure that takes into account its layoffs this year, but Nadella wrote that headcount is basically flat.
“This is the enigma of success in an industry that has no franchise value,” he wrote. “Progress isn’t linear. It’s dynamic, sometimes dissonant, and always demanding. But it’s also a new opportunity for us to shape, lead through, and have greater impact than ever before.”
The cuts at Microsoft are reflective of an overall trend across the tech industry, with over 80,000 positions eliminated to date in 2025, according to one count. Recruit Holdings announced earlier this month that it would lay off 1,300 people from its human resources technology segment that includes the Indeed and Glassdoor websites. The company’s CEO pointed to artificial intelligence in a memo, Bloomberg reported.
On social media in recent months, some Microsoft employees have become disheartened about the company’s cutbacks, given its stature.
“I have loved working for this company, still do, but this has done so much damage to that loyalty because it has shown that Microsoft’s espoused values do not apply to business decisions at the macro level,” a person who lists themselves as a Microsoft directed on LinkedIn posted last week.
Microsoft is the world’s most valuable public company after Nvidia, whose chips have become a critical piece of the AI arms race. Microsoft’s Windows and Office franchises remain dominant, and its Azure cloud services have seen faster growth in recent years as OpenAI and other companies rent out Nvidia graphics cards to run AI models.
In the memo, Nadella touched on Microsoft’s mission for the past 10 years, which has been to empower every person and every organization on the planet to achieve more, and how the rise of AI is changing it.
“We must reimagine our mission for a new era,” he wrote. “What does empowerment look like in the era of AI? It’s not just about building tools for specific roles or tasks. It’s about building tools that empower everyone to create their own tools. That’s the shift we are driving — from a software factory to an intelligence engine empowering every person and organization to build whatever they need to achieve.”
Trump administration regulators have approved Skydance Media’s $8 billion bid to acquire CBS News parent company Paramount, paving the way for a tectonic shift in ownership of one of America’s three major networks.
The Federal Communications Commission said Thursday that it had approved the acquisition, with FCC Chairman Brendan Carr adding in a news release that the move would bring change to the company’s news coverage. Paramount owns CBS, which includes CBS News.
‘Americans no longer trust the legacy national news media to report fully, accurately, and fairly. It is time for a change,’ Carr said. ‘That is why I welcome Skydance’s commitment to make significant changes at the once storied CBS broadcast network. In particular, Skydance has made written commitments to ensure that the new company’s programming embodies a diversity of viewpoints from across the political and ideological spectrum.’
‘Today’s decision also marks another step forward in the FCC’s efforts to eliminate invidious forms of DEI discrimination,’ Carr added.
David Ellison; Shari Redstone.AP; Getty Images
In recent days, Paramount’s new owner made a number of concessions to the FCC, including agreeing to not implement any diversity, equity or inclusion programs. Skydance also said it would ‘undertake a comprehensive review’ of CBS and ‘will commit, for a period of at least two years, to have in place an ombudsman.’ That role would report to the president of the new company.
A number of companies that have billion-dollar transactions pending before Carr’s FCC have also backed off of DEI programs, including Verizon and T-Mobile.
The concessions also came after Paramount Global settled a lawsuit with President Donald Trump for $16 million. Trump brought that suit, saying the way CBS edited a ’60 Minutes’ interview with former Vice President Kamala Harris was ‘election and voter interference.’
The lone Democrat in FCC leadership, Commissioner Anna Gomez, did not mince words about the push to secure promises from the companies.
“After months of cowardly capitulation to this Administration, Paramount finally got what it wanted,’ she said in an emailed statement.
‘In an unprecedented move, this once-independent FCC used its vast power to pressure Paramount to broker a private legal settlement and further erode press freedom,’ she added. ‘Once again, this agency is undermining legitimate efforts to combat discrimination and expand opportunity by overstepping its authority and intervening in employment matters reserved for other government entities with proper jurisdiction on these issues.’
‘Even more alarming, it is now imposing never-before-seen controls over newsroom decisions and editorial judgment, in direct violation of the First Amendment and the law.’
Skydance is run by David Ellison, son of Oracle founder and Trump ally Larry Ellison. While the younger Ellison made a donation to President Joe Biden’s re-election fund in February 2024 shortly before the former president bowed out of the race, Trump recently signaled his comfort with his takeover of Paramount and its assets, which in addition to CBS News include Nickelodeon, Comedy Central, The CW, MTV, BET and film franchises like “Smurfs” and “Sonic the Hedgehog.”
“Ellison is great. He’ll do a great job with it,” Trump said in June.
There is likely to be a sea change in the editorial direction of CBS News under its new ownership. In a recent filing, Ellison and Skydance said they’d told Carr that they were committed to pursuing a focus on “American storytelling” while touting a new, “unbiased” editorial direction for CBS News. Their meeting came shortly after Paramount agreed to settle Trump’s lawsuit.
It also came just days after CBS announced it was canceling “The Late Show,” currently hosted by Stephen Colbert — an announcement Trump praised on social media. Colbert had recently criticized the parent company’s multimillion-dollar settlement with Trump, while CBS said the cancellation was “purely a financial decision against a challenging backdrop in late night.”
There had been signs of an editorial shift ahead of the merger. Most notably, longtime “60 Minutes” editor Bill Owens announced he was stepping down this spring, citing CBS News’ fading editorial independence. Shortly after, CBS News President and CEO Wendy McMahon was pushed out. Last week, The New York Times reported Skydance was in early talks to acquire the conservative-leaning The Free Press media outlet. Meanwhile, “Daily Show” host Jon Stewart has said he did not know whether his program would survive the merger.
Skydance has spent years pursuing Paramount and eventually realized it could successfully execute the transaction by purchasing Paramount’s parent, National Amusements, the company once helmed by Sumner Redstone, the father of the company’s current chairwoman, president and CEO, Shari Redstone. Yet the proposed deal continued to face hurdles, first under the Biden administration then at the outset of Trump’s term. Its approval came in what was its third deadline extension period.
In this video, Mary Ellen spotlights the areas driving market momentum following Taiwan Semiconductor’s record-breaking earnings report. She analyzes continued strength in semiconductors, utilities, industrials, and AI-driven sectors, plus highlights new leadership in robotics and innovation-focused ETFs like ARK. From there, Mary Ellen breaks down weakness in health care and housing stocks, shows how to refine trade entries using hourly charts, and compares today’s rally to past market surges. Watch as she explores setups in silver and examines individual stocks like Nvidia, BlackRock, and State Street.
New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.
If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.
Is the market’s next surge already underway? Find out with Tom Bowley’s breakdown of where the money is flowing now and how you can get in front of it.
In this video, Tom covers key moves in the major indexes, revealing strength in transports, small caps, and home construction. He identifies industry rotation signals, which are pointing to aluminum, recreational products, and furnishings. Tom then demonstrates how to use StockCharts’ tools to scan for momentum stocks in emerging leadership groups — see why SGI tops Tom’s list. He ends with a discussion of post-earnings reactions from major names like GOOGL, TSLA, IBM, and LVS.
And, of course, Tom wraps every idea with clear chart setups you can act on today.
This video premiered on July 24, 2025. Click this link to watch on Tom’s dedicated page.
Missed a session? Archived videos from Tom are available at this link.
The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.
How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.
While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.
From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.
New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up
If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.
As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.
Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.
The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”
The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.
Active Bullish Patterns
We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.
Failed Bearish Patterns
In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.
The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.
We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.
UnitedHealth Group revealed Thursday it is facing a Justice Department investigation over its Medicare billing practices.
It comes after the Wall Street Journal reported in May that the Department of Justice is conducting a criminal investigation into the health-care giant over possible Medicare fraud. In response at the time, the company said it stands “by the integrity of our Medicare Advantage program.”
In July, the Journal also reported that the DOJ interviewed several doctors about UnitedHealth’s practices and whether they felt pressured to submit claims for certain conditions that bolstered payments from the Medicare Advantage program to the company.
That marked the second time this year that the insurer’s Medicare Advantage business has come under federal scrutiny. The Journal also reported in February that the DOJ is conducting a civil investigation into whether the company inflated diagnoses to trigger extra payments to its Medicare Advantage plans.
But in March, UnitedHealth moved a step closer to ending a yearslong legal battle with the DOJ that began with a whistleblower who alleged the company illegally withheld at least $2 billion through the Medicare Advantage program. A special master assigned to the case by the judge issued a recommendation in favor of UnitedHealth, saying the DOJ lacked evidence.
UnitedHealthcare’s Medicare and retirement segment, which includes the Medicare Advantage business, is UnitedHealth Group’s largest revenue driver, raking in $139 billion in sales last year.
The update in the probe comes after a tumultuous last year for UnitedHealthcare, the nation’s largest and most powerful private health insurer. Shares of UnitedHealthcare’s parent company, UnitedHealth Group, are down more than 42% for the year after it suspended its 2025 forecast amid skyrocketing medical costs, announced the surprise exit of former CEO Andrew Witty and grappled with the reported probe into its Medicare Advantage business.
The company’s 2024 wasn’t any easier, marked by a historic cyberattack and the torrent of public blowback after the murder of UnitedHealthcare’s CEO Brian Thompson.
Alphabet reported second-quarter results on Wednesday that beat on revenue and earnings, but the company said it would raise its capital investments by $10 billion in 2025.
Here’s how the company did, compared with estimates from analysts polled by LSEG:
Wall Street is also watching several other numbers in the report:
The company’s overall revenue grew 14% year over year, higher than the 10.9% Wall Street expected, but Alphabet is going to spend more on artificial intelligence in 2025 than it anticipated.
In February, the company said it expected to invest $75 billion in capital expenditures in 2025 as it continues to expand on its AI strategy. That was already above the $58.84 billion Wall Street expected at the time.
The company increased that figure on Wednesday to $85 billion, saying it was raising it due to “strong and growing demand for our Cloud products and services.” The company expects to further increase capital expenditures in 2026, Alphabet finance chief Anat Ashkenazi said on an earnings call.
The company reported revenue of $13.62 billion for its cloud computing business, which is a 32% increase from a year ago. Last week, OpenAI announced that it expected to use Google’s cloud infrastructure for its popular ChatGPT service. Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai said “we are very excited to be partnering with them.”
Alphabet’s net income increased to $28.20 billion, up nearly 20% from the previous year.
The company’s search and advertising units still showed growth in the second quarter despite AI competition heating up. The company’s search unit brought in $54.19 billion during the quarter, and its advertising revenue grew to $71.34 billion — up about 10.4% from $64.61 billion the year prior.
YouTube advertising revenue came in at $9.8 billion, higher than Wall Street expected.
The company said its “Other Bets” segment, which includes its self-driving car unit Waymo and life sciences unit Verily, brought in $373 million — up from $365 million a year ago. Other Bets reported a loss of $1.25 billion, up from the $1.13 billion a year ago.
AI Overviews, Google’s AI search product that summarizes search results, now has upward of two billion monthly users across more than 200 countries and territories, Pichai said during Wednesday’s earnings call. That’s up from 1.5 billion monthly users last quarter.
The Gemini app, which has the company’s AI chatbot, now has more than 450 million monthly active users, Pichai said.
When asked about large spending on AI talent, Ashkenazi said Alphabet makes “sure that we invest appropriately to have the best and brightest minds in the industry.”
Google made a splash in the AI talent wars, announcing earlier in July that it would bring in Windsurf CEO Varun Mohan and other top researchers at the AI coding startup as part of a $2.4 billion deal that also includes licensing the company’s technology.
Total operating expenses increased 20% to $26.1 billion, Ashkenazi said on Wednesday. The biggest driver of growth was expenses for legal and other matters due in part to a $1.4 billion charge related to a settlement, she said on Wednesday’s earnings call. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in May announced a $1.37 billion settlement with Google related to a data privacy rights lawsuit it made against the company in 2022.
Ashkenazi said Alphabet’s third-quarter revenue “could see a tailwind” due to several reasons. That includes a negative impact for advertising, which benefited from “strong spend on U.S. elections” in late 2024, particularly on YouTube, she said.
