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Looking for breakout stocks and top market leaders? Follow along Mary Ellen shares stock breakouts, analyst upgrades, and sector leadership trends to help you trade strong stocks in today’s market.

In this week’s episode, Mary Ellen reveals the stocks leading the market higher and explains what’s fueling their strength. She highlights base breakouts, analyst upgrades, and leadership stocks gaining momentum. In addition, she screens for emerging breakout candidates you should have on your radar.

This video originally premiered May 16, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

Sector Rotation Shakeup: Industrials Take the Lead

Another week of significant movement in the sector landscape has reshaped the playing field. The Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) paints a picture of shifting dynamics, with some surprising developments in sector leadership. Let’s dive into the details and see what’s happening under the hood.

  1. (6) Industrials – (XLI)*
  2. (4) Financials – (XLF)*
  3. (1) Utilities – (XLU)*
  4. (2) Communication Services – (XLC)*
  5. (3) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
  6. (8) Technology – (XLK)*
  7. (5) Real-Estate – (XLRE)*
  8. (9) Materials – (XLB)*
  9. (11) Energy – (XLE)*
  10. (10) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)
  11. (7) Healthcare – (XLV)*

Weekly RRG

On the weekly RRG, Utilities and Consumer Staples maintain their high positions on the RS-Ratio scale. However, there are signs of waning momentum. Staples has rolled over within the leading quadrant and is now showing a negative heading. Utilities, while still strong, are losing some of their relative momentum.

Financials and Communication Services are hanging on in the weakening quadrant, but their tails are relatively short — indicating potential for a quick turnaround.

The show’s star, Industrials, has made a beeline for the leading quadrant, climbing on the RS-Ratio scale while maintaining a positive RRG heading.

Daily RRG

Switching to the daily RRG, we get a more granular view. Utilities, Staples, and Financials are found in the lagging quadrant, but Staples and Utilities are showing signs of life, turning back up towards the improving quadrant.

Financials, meanwhile, are hugging the benchmark.

The daily chart confirms Industrials’ strength, mirroring its weekly performance.

Communication Services, however, is showing some worrying signs — it’s dropped into the weakening quadrant on the daily RRG, confirming its vulnerable position on the weekly chart.

Industrials

XLI flexes its muscles, pushing against overhead resistance around the $144 mark.

A break above this level could trigger a further acceleration in price.

The relative strength line has already broken out of its consolidation pattern, propelling both RRG lines above 100 and driving the XLI tail deeper into the leading quadrant.

Financials

The financial sector continues its upward trajectory, trading above its previous high and closing in on the all-time high of around $53.

Like Industrials, a break above this resistance could spark a new leg up.

The RS line is moving sideways within its rising channel, causing the RRG lines to flatten—something to watch.

Utilities

XLU has finally broken through its overhead resistance, approaching its all-time high around $83.

After months of pushing against the $80 level, this breakout is a clear sign of strength.

The RS line is still grappling with its own resistance, but the RS-Ratio line continues its gradual ascent.

Communication Services

While XLC is moving higher on the price chart, its relative strength is lagging.

The sideways movement in the RS line is causing both RRG lines to move lower, with the RS-Momentum line already below 100.

This sector is rapidly approaching the lagging quadrant on the daily RRG—definitely one to watch for potential risks.

Consumer Staples

XLP is approaching the upper boundary of its trading range ($83-$85), where it is running into resistance. The inability to push higher while the market is moving up is causing relative strength to falter.

The recent strength has pushed both RRG lines well above 100, but the current loss of relative strength is now causing the RRG-Lines to roll over.

The tail is still comfortably within the leading quadrant, but this loss of momentum could signal a potential setback.

Portfolio Performance

The model portfolio’s defensive positioning has led to some underperformance relative to SPY, with the gap now just under 6%.

However, the model is sticking to its guns, maintaining a defensive stance with Staples and Utilities firmly in the top five.

It’s worth noting that Healthcare has now definitively dropped out of the top ranks. Nevertheless, with Staples and Utilities holding firm, and Technology and Consumer Discretionary still in the bottom half, the overall positioning remains cautious.

These are the periods when patience is key. We need to let the model do its work and wait for new, meaningful relative trends to emerge. It’s not always comfortable to endure underperformance, but it’s often necessary to capture longer-term outperformance.

#StayAlert, –Julius


Earnings season continues with names like Home Depot, Palo Alto Networks, and BJ’s Wholesale flashing signals that investors shouldn’t ignore. Whether you’re following home improvement trends, cybersecurity growth, or retail resilience, these stocks offer insight into where the stock market could be headed next.

Let’s break down the charts, decode the earnings, and explore the setups that could shape your next move.

DIY Boom Fizzling: What Home Depot’s Earnings Might Tell Us

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) reports earnings on Tuesday, and its results will give a peek at how the DIY home retail investor is changing their spending habits. HD’s stock price has struggled and is down about 2.5% year-to-date, but well off its lows. Like most stocks reporting earnings this quarter, investors will listen for any revisions to HD’s guidance, especially considering ongoing economic challenges such as high interest rates and their impact on consumer spending.

Let’s look at the daily chart of HD.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF HOME DEPOT, INC. STOCK PRICE. The $377 area and 200-day moving average act as the middle road for a potential setup.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The chart of HD stock displayed a head-and-shoulders top last quarter, which we warned about. Sadly, that pattern broke to the downside and hit its target some $50 lower. Since bottoming, shares have retreated to where they were before their last report.

The set-up is a coin flip, with the $377 area and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) acting as the middle road. Stock prices are known to gap and trend for roughly two weeks in the gap’s direction before reversing direction.

If HD’s stock price dips, there are clear support and potential entry points. Look for the rising 50-day SMA to hold at around the $360 level. A dip and hold here would be good for the longer-term turnaround story and the bullish case. If there’s a break, wait for a deeper drop to enter HD. A gap above the 200-day SMA should lead to near-term smooth sailing and enable a trader to use the average as a great stop loss guide.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW): Can It Keep Climbing?

It’s one of the biggest names in cybersecurity, and it’s on the verge of getting back to its all-time highs.

Fundamentally, Palo Alto Networks’ annual recurring revenue (ARR) continues to be the significant growth driver. In Q1, ARR grew 40% year-over-year to $4.5 billion. For Q2 2025, the company projected ARR between $4.70 billion and $4.75 billion. Investors will be keen to see if the company meets or exceeds this guidance.

Technically, we wanted to look at this chart on a longer time frame. The five-year weekly chart of PANW below shows the trend is stalling under a double top at the $205 level. There are some good signs that it may be able to get back on track and push to new highs.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF PALO ALTO NETWORKS STOCK PRICE. Monitor the rising 50-week SMA. Will it hold that level after earnings? The MACD is displaying a bullish crossover, which signals a favorable risk/reward setup.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The key level to watch for the bulls is the rising 50-week (blue line) SMA. Shares had consistently trended above this level since initially surpassing it in early 2023. Price action briefly broke below that average, but recaptured it two weeks ago. Now it must hold that level, so watch $178.50 for support on any weakness.

The technical indicator that caught my eye was the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD), which just experienced a bullish crossover. This has a history of leading to great risk/reward setups in a stock. The chart highlights the current crossover and the last two notable ones in green to demonstrate the indicator’s past performance.

Any upside movement should take PANW’s stock price back to the $205 level and a re-test of all-time highs.

BJ’s Wholesale (BJ): Quietly Outperforming

BJ’s has quietly enjoyed a strong 2025, despite tariff talk and negative consumer sentiment. Shares of BJ are up 29% year-to-date and over 44% over the last 52 weeks. While its $14 billion market cap pales in comparison to the $450 billion size of its biggest wholesale competitor in Costco (COST), BJ continues to exceed expectations and thrive.

BJ’s stock price has rallied after four of the last five earnings reports, with an average gain of 8%, including a 12% rally last quarter. Coming into the results, the stock price is starting to rally back towards all-time highs. Maybe this will be the catalyst to break out even higher.

Technically, there is much overhead resistance at the $120 level (see daily chart of BJ below). A break above there should lead to another $10–$15 on the upside. 

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF BJ STOCK. Note the overhead resistance at around the $120 level. On the downside, there’s support at $108 and the rising 100-day SMA.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes only.

Weakness has given investors opportunities as well. There is clear support at the $108 level and the rising 100-day SMA (in green). The long-term trend has been strong and, barring a major change in the fiscal direction of BJ’s, the trends should continue to be your friend and give solid risk/reward entry points. 

Final Thoughts

Charts aren’t just squiggly lines. They’re tools to help you make smarter decisions with your hard-earned money. 

Whether you’re eyeing a potential rebound in Home Depot, the strength of cybersecurity, or a quiet winner like BJ’s, remember: technical patterns can give you an edge, but so can patience and perspective.


Learn how to analyze stock price gaps with Dave! In this video, Dave discusses the different types of price gaps, why all price gaps are not the same, and how you can use the StockCharts platform to identify key levels and signals to follow on charts where price gaps occur. Charts discussed include the S&P 500, First Solar (FSLR), Microsoft (MSFT), and more!

This video originally premiered on May 19, 2025. Watch on StockCharts’ dedicated David Keller page!

Previously recorded videos from Dave are available at this link.

Israel launched a new devastating ground offensive in Gaza over the weekend just as US President Donald Trump departed the region without sealing a ceasefire and hostage deal.

The Israeli military said its forces moved into northern and southern Gaza over the past day as part of the “Gideon’s Chariots” operation, which Israel warned would take place if Hamas doesn’t agree to a new hostage deal on its terms.

The ground operation came after days of heavy airstrikes on the Gaza Strip, which according to health authorities there have wiped out entire families.

Israel says it will allow a “basic amount of food” into the besieged enclave, a move which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hinted was due to intense pressure from Israel’s allies. Hamas and Israel also began indirect talks in the Qatari capital Doha on Saturday.

Here’s what we know about Israel’s new offensive and what it means for Gazans.

What is Israel’s new operation in Gaza?

On Monday, Netanyahu said that Israel plans to take control of all of Gaza.

The official said earlier in May that the plan would be implemented after Trump’s trip to the Middle East to “provide a window of opportunity” to reach a hostage deal.

The warring parties failed to reach a deal during Trump’s visit last week, and Israel pressed on with its operation over the weekend. This began with a series of intense airstrikes last week and was followed by an expanded ground offensive on Sunday.

The Israeli military said Sunday that over the past week, it struck more than 670 “Hamas targets” in a wave of preliminary airstrikes across the enclave.

Health officials in Gaza said on Sunday that the operation killed over 100 people overnight, and shuttered the last functioning hospital in the enclave’s north. Entire families were killed while sleeping, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.

More than 53,000 people have been killed in Gaza since Israel began its war on October 7, 2023, according to the ministry, which added that the majority of the dead are women and children.

What’s happening with Gaza aid?

On Sunday, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office said that due to the “operational need,” Israel will allow a “basic amount of food” to enter Gaza to prevent famine in the enclave, which Israel says would jeopardize its military operation.

Netanyahu has also hinted that his country could lose the support of its closest allies, including the United States, if it doesn’t lift its 11-week blockade on the territory, which has further exacerbated a humanitarian crisis on the ground that aid agencies, including the United Nations, have said could lead to widespread famine.

The UN had warned that Gaza’s entire population of over 2.1 million people is facing a risk of famine following 19 months of conflict and mass displacement.

If “a situation of famine” arose in Gaza, Israel “simply won’t receive international support,” Netanyahu said Monday.

“Even our closest allies in the world – US senators I know personally and who have been staunch, unconditional supporters of Israel for decades – are coming to me and saying: ‘We are giving you all the support to achieve victory – weapons, support for your efforts to eliminate Hamas, protection at the UN Security Council – but there’s one thing we cannot accept: images of mass starvation… If that happens, we won’t be able to support you anymore,’” Netanyahu said in an address posted to Telegram.

“We are approaching a dangerous point we don’t want to reach,” he said, adding that the military would find a “solution to this problem” to achieve its war aims.

Netanyahu’s explanations were largely aimed at mollifying his right-wing supporters who adamantly oppose the entry of any humanitarian aid to Gaza, including to civilians.

Asked when aid will start entering into the enclave, Netanyahu’s office said on Monday that “it will happen in the near future.”

A controversial American-backed organization, Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), tasked with delivering aid to the territory, welcomed the Israeli announcement about allowing food aid as a “bridging mechanism” until the group is fully operational.

The foundation is meant to run a new, tightly controlled mechanism for aid deliveries that has been approved by Israel and the US, which both countries say is designed to prevent Hamas from “stealing” aid. The GHF-run mechanism has come under criticism from top humanitarian officials, who warn that it is insufficient, could endanger civilians and even encourage their forced displacement.

Given that the initial sites would only be in southern and central Gaza, the UN warned, this could be seen to be encouraging Israel’s publicly stated goal of forcing “the entire Gazan population” out of northern Gaza, as Defense Minister Israel Katz put it earlier this month.

Jake Wood, the foundation’s executive director, said Israel has also agreed to allow it to establish two sites in northern Gaza, which he believes can be up and running within the first 30 days of its operations.

The UN’s aid chief, Tom Fletcher, said Friday that there’s no need for an alternative Gaza aid plan. “Let’s not waste time: We already have a plan,” he said.

In one of the strongest condemnations of Israel’s war by a high-ranking UN official, Fletcher said the international community must prevent “genocide” in the enclave.

“Will you act – decisively – to prevent genocide and to ensure respect for international humanitarian law? Or will you say instead, ‘we did all we could?’” he told the UN Security Council.

What is Trump saying?

Trump visited Gulf Arab states last week, including Qatar, where his negotiating team was engaged in ceasefire and hostage talks.

The president said this month that he wanted an end to the “brutal war” in Gaza and did not visit Israel during his tour of the region, which he had already twice bypassed this month in reaching bilateral deals with regional militant groups.

On Wednesday, Trump denied that Israel had been sidelined. “This is good for Israel,” he said. But on Thursday, he said he wanted the US to “take” Gaza and turn it into a “freedom zone.”

He also told Fox News on Saturday that he is not frustrated with Netanyahu, as the Israeli prime minister has got “a tough situation.” While in the Gulf, Trump also acknowledged that people are starving in Gaza and said the US would have the situation “taken care of.”

“We’re looking at Gaza. And we’re going to get that taken care of. A lot of people are starving,” he told reporters in UAE capital Abu Dhabi.

On Sunday, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff told ABC News that the issue with getting aid into Gaza is primarily logistical.

“It is logistically complicated and the conditions on the ground are dangerous,” he said. “That said, we do not want to see a humanitarian crisis and we will not allow it to occur on President Trump’s watch.”

Where does this leave talks?

Israeli Defense Minister Katz said Saturday that the new military operation in Gaza is what pressured Hamas to return to negotiations in Qatar last week. But analysts and officials say it’s more likely that the militant group agreed to restart the talks following Trump’s Middle East visit.

Senior Hamas official Taher Al-Nunu confirmed Saturday that “negotiations without preconditions” had started in Doha, according to Hamas-run al Aqsa TV.

It is unclear how well the discussions are progressing in Doha. Israel on Sunday indicated its openness to ending the war in Gaza if Hamas surrenders, a proposition the group is unlikely to accept as long as Israel continues to insist on Hamas disarming.

Meanwhile, Hamas officials have given conflicting comments about the talks.

Hours later, another senior Hamas leader, Sami Abu Zuhri, denied and contradicted that proposal, posting a statement on Al-Aqsa TV’s Telegram: “There is no truth to the rumors regarding the movement’s agreement to release nine Israeli prisoners in exchange for a two-month ceasefire.”

Zuhri went on to say: “We are ready to release the prisoners all at once, provided the occupation commits to a cessation of hostilities under international guarantees, and we will not hand over the occupation’s prisoners as long as it insists on continuing its aggression against Gaza indefinitely.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The United Kingdom and the European Union have agreed to a landmark deal aimed at “resetting” their post-Brexit relationship, easing restrictions on travel and work for hundreds of millions of people on the continent.

The pact, agreed at a summit in London on Monday, followed months of negotiations between Downing Street and Brussels. It includes agreements on defense, migration, work and travel — and leaders on each side of the Channel will hope it leaves behind years’ worth of tensions.

“This is a historic moment,” EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer as they unveiled the deal on Monday. “We’re turning a page. We’re opening a new chapter in our unique relationship.”

“Britain is back on the world stage,” Starmer added following the meetings at Lancaster House.

But the deal has already threatened to open old wounds; Starmer has been criticized by leaders on Britain’s resurgent populist right, who have claimed the deal weakens the UK’s sovereignty.

Here’s what you need to know.

Slashing ‘red tape’ for trade

The two sides have struck a deal to ease trade between their two markets — one of the most contentious areas of the long-running Brexit negotiations.

Downing Street announced in a statement that it has agreed to reduce the “red tape” currently burdening British businesses exporting food and drink to the bloc on an indefinite basis. Part of that agreement will include the complete removal of some routine checks on animal and plant products, it said.

Starmer’s office added that it hoped the changes would ultimately “lower food prices and increase choice on supermarket shelves” but was resolute that they do not cross certain “red lines” central to the government’s vision of Brexit, including remaining outside of the EU’s single market and customs union.

The trade partners have decided to move toward “a common sanitary and phytosanitary area,” von der Leyen told reporters on Monday. “That means more certainty, more stability for farmers and food producers, and fishermen and fisherwoman, on both sides of the Channel.”

In any case, changes to the trading rules between the two sides are significant: The EU is the UK’s largest trading partner, with the bloc accounting for 41% of Britain’s exports and more than half of its imports last year, according to official figures covering both goods and services. The UK is also a top trading partner for Brussels, and was the second-largest destination for EU goods exports in 2024, Eurostat data shows.

The deal also included commitments to give the EU fishing boats access to British waters for a further 12 years beyond the current agreement, which is set to expire next year. Europe will also open up its electricity market to the UK, a move that von der Leyen praised as a step toward boosting energy security and lowering prices.

The agreement comes as US President Donald Trump’s barrage of tariffs have wreaked havoc on the global trading order. In a joint statement released Monday, the EU and UK said they shared a “commitment to free, sustainable, fair and open trade.”

A new defense pact

The two sides have worked increasingly closely on defense since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and that unity has only grown since the Trump administration threatened to pull its security guarantees for Europe and leave Kyiv to fend for itself against Moscow.

It made defense one of the least controversial aspects of the negotiations, and Monday’s deal saw a formal handshake on a new UK-EU defense partnership. The UK now will gain access to a Europe-wide defense program, allowing British companies to bid for security contracts alongside European rivals.

“This joint procurement will increase our readiness, will close military gaps that we have,” von der Leyen said.

Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have emerged as the leading voices advocating for Kyiv on the global stage, and the two leaders have pushed their European counterparts to boost military spending and join a European bulwark against Moscow’s advances.

What will change for Brits and Europeans?

The two sides will work toward a youth mobility scheme that will allow under-30s to travel and work between the UK and Europe. Starmer has taken pains to insist there is no return to full freedom of movement, a benefit Britons enjoyed when it was a member of the EU, but European officials have stressed that a deal would prove mutually beneficial.

British students are also set to once again have access to Europe’s Erasmus scheme, which allows them to study abroad in other European countries. The two sides agreed to find an agreement on that scheme. “This will allow the next generation to once again live and study in each other’s countries. This will build friendships that will last a lifetime,” von der Leyen said.

And one visible impact of Brexit will disappear: Britons will now be able to use e-gates at European airports when they travel on vacation, joining EU passport-holders in the streamlined queues.

Will the deal open old wounds?

Starmer is striking a deal in a unique political environment. Public sentiment is broadly behind him; Britons increasingly regret the decision to leave the EU, and prize an agreement with the bloc over a similar deal with the US, opinion polling suggests. But the country remains weary of the heated, years-long arguments that engulfed Westminster after the 2016 Brexit vote, and Downing Street is treading carefully to avoid re-opening those wounds.

It may be wishful thinking. The prime minister, whose government is unpopular as it approaches one year in office, is also wary of the threat from the right. The populist Reform UK party is leading opinion polls, and its leader Nigel Farage — the chief architect of the Brexit movement — has already sought to frame Monday’s deal as a surrender to Brussels.

A decision to extend the EU’s favorable access to British fishing waters until 2038 — 12 years longer than the current agreement — provides Farage and other critics ample bait. “We’re becoming a rule-taker from Brussels once again,” Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch complained.

But Starmer will be desperate to set another narrative: that Monday’s deal finally closes a contentious chapter in British politics. “It’s time to look forward,” he said. “To move on from the stale old debates and political fights to find common sense, practical solutions which get the best for the British people.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

France is planning to build a brand new high-security prison in the Amazon rainforest, near the site of the notorious Devil’s Island penal colony that inspired the 1973 movie “Papillon,” starring Steve McQueen.

Speaking on Sunday during a visit to French Guiana, a French territory that borders Suriname and Brazil, Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin said the facility would house drug kingpins and radical Islamists.

The prison will be built in Saint-Laurent-du-Maroni, on French Guiana’s border with Suriname, with space for 500 inmates, including 60 maximum-security prisoners.

Speaking to journalists, Darmanin said the new jail would help to ease prison overcrowding in French Guiana, as well as responding to the growing threat of drug trafficking in the territory.

French Guiana is a major transit point for South American cocaine on its way to markets in Europe, he said.

“Citizens in overseas territories must be able to have the same level of security as those in mainland France,” Darmanin said.

According to the minister, high-ranking criminals are able to use their illicit earnings to corrupt officials, and some are able to continue to run their operations from inside prison..

There are already 49 high-level drug traffickers in custody in French Guiana and other French overseas territories, Darmanin said, adding that these “extremely dangerous” prisoners are not being kept in adequately secure conditions.

The complex, which will also house a court, will cost a total 400 million euros ($451 million), Darmanin said in a post on Facebook on Sunday.

For some, the announcement of the planned facility brought back chilling memories of the penal colony of Cayenne, commonly known as Devil’s Island, which housed French prisoners until 1953.

Devil’s Island became infamous for its inhumane conditions, to the extent that it lent its name to a 1939 film starring Boris Karloff, as well as inspiring the novel “Papillon,” which was subsequently made into two movies.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

“The root causes of the conflict.”

These were startling words from a man purportedly on the path to peace.

But it is the nub of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s position of what must be solved for peace, after two weeks, or three months, depending on how you count, of mounting pressure for an immediate unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Unbothered, taking this most consequential of calls at a music school on the Sochi coast, the Kremlin head has returned to the start – to his false narrative about this war of choice being sparked by NATO expanding too fast.

Five other, different words emerged hours before, that may have echoed in Putin’s ears while he spoke to US President Donald Trump for two hours.

“It is not our war,” said Vice President JD Vance earlier. Reprising his role as the harbinger of very bad news for European security, Vance held out again this remarkable non-threat: that the United States might pull out of the war – presumably from both diplomacy and aid to Ukraine – unless Russia takes steps toward a peace deal it adamantly does not want. Washington backing off is exactly what Russia yearns for, and to earn this dream outcome, it seems Putin has to do absolutely nothing, bar continue to wage a brutal war.

Moments after the call, Trump already sounded like a man stepping back from the fray. Five days earlier he had been the febrile intermediary, the peacemaker willing to bridge the enmity between Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky for a meeting in Turkey. But after his Monday call with Putin, he simply said Ukraine and Russia must talk directly, “as only they can.” He even passed the task to the home of the new American Pope, the Vatican, as a possible venue. The United States may not be out of the process entirely, but it talks like it wants someone else to lead it.

The last 10 days have been a vivid reminder of how little Putin really needs POTUS or his approval. And the logic is simple.

For the best part of three years of war, Russia’s state media has been lecturing its audience they are not only in conflict with Ukraine, but also with all of NATO, including the United States. The presidency of Trump has created a small window in which the Kremlin might talk its way into a better position, or even alleviate the pain of some Western sanctions. But it does not change the central calculation or message of the Kremlin: this is an existential war, about re-establishing their pre-eminence in their near abroad. So much pain and loss has been inflicted on the Russian people through staggering war casualties that delivering middling to poor results might significantly limit the longevity of Russia’s leadership. This isn’t a war they can be seen to have lost.

The limits of what the United States can offer Russia at the moment, in terms of leverage, are visible from space. Yes, the US could escalate sanctions, even, as Trump mulled last week, adding “secondary sanctions” against Russia’s financiers, the oil purchasers of India and China. But that would cause another trade-like rift with world powers that Washington has just made good with. The US could alternatively ease sanctions to coax Russia into concessions. But those kid gloves would irk their European allies, and likely falter without Europe’s practical support.

Any further steps to cause Moscow pain would likely mean Trump had gone further to punish Russia than his predecessor Joe Biden did. That is not the MAGA geopolitical gameplan. It would deepen US involvement in a war where there is, frankly, no end in sight, until one side falters, or sees drastic change in political leadership.

Ukraine in 2025 is a bleak prospect. But the central tenet of European policy was the best choice in a world of ghastly options: Moscow could only be forced into reducing its goals if it saw an infinitely united NATO before it. Its economy, reserve wealth, manpower, or hardware might falter – only one needs to for the war machine to stutter. It is bleak, but Europe is left with little choice. Ukraine has no choice at all.

Trump felt he has a choice. His business acumen sees no merit in a long-term investment in a conflict with an enemy you’d prefer to get along with, the best outcome from which is to return Europe to the peace it knew before. There is no deal to be made here. Putin is not buying anything; he seeks to conquer and take. Trump has nothing to sell, bar the United States’ backing for its traditional allies. There is no way Putin and Trump can both win and retain their stature.

American leadership has for decades been built around something other than good, small deals. Its benevolence toward allies, vast soft power, and military hegemony, has left it the biggest economy on earth, with an undefeatable currency – itself a very good and huge deal.

But Trump sees America’s role as smaller. This may be the moment Trump finally understood Putin as someone who really doesn’t seek his approval or allegiance, and stepped back. If it is, the United States too has stepped back from decades of calling the shots, admitted the limits of its focus and power, and left the most important peace deal since the 1940s to a Hail Mary pass at the Vatican.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The first flight carrying migrants who chose to self-deport from the United States as part of a new Department of Homeland Security initiative offering free flights and $1,000 stipends has landed in Honduras.

A group of 38 Hondurans arrived at Ramón Villeda Morales International Airport on Monday afternoon after applying through a mobile app provided by US Customs and Border Protection, Honduran Deputy Foreign Minister Antonio García said.

“There was a bit of everything. There were mothers with children. Each one was given $1,000, including the children,” García told reporters at the airport, saying that up to 19 children had arrived.

At least four of the children were born in the US and one was born in Mexico. They left the US with their Honduran relatives to avoid family separation, according to Honduran Migration Director Wilson Paz Reyes.

“In this case, the US makes the decision, along with their families, that they return to the country so that family disintegration does not occur,” he said.

One of those deported, Wilson Sáenz, said that after he requested to be removed, authorities flew him to a hotel in Houston, Texas, and from there, he was dropped off at an airport and provided food before his flight home.

Another, Kevin Posadas, said that after applying for self-deportation, officials messaged migrants telling them when to present themselves, and “depending on what state they’re in, they move them to a place that’s closer to send them to Honduras.”

The flight carried 64 people, according to a Homeland Security official. It is expected to continue to Colombia to drop off the remaining migrants who opted for self-deportation, García said.

“Today, DHS conducted its first Project Homecoming charter flight of 64 individuals who voluntarily chose to self-deport to their home counties of Honduras and Colombia,” Homeland Secretary Kristi Noem said. “If you are here illegally, use the CBP Home App to take control of your departure and receive financial support to return home.”

The US Department of Homeland Security announced on May 5 that it would offer undocumented immigrants financial and travel assistance to facilitate their return home through the CBP Home app, through which people can notify the government that they intend to leave the US voluntarily.

Any undocumented immigrant who uses the app to self-deport will receive a stipend of $1,000, to be paid after they confirm their return home through the app, according to the DHS.

The DHS says the initiative will cut deportation costs, which it says currently average more than $17,000 per case.

Those who sign up for self-deportation through CBP Home will also be deprioritized for detention and removal, “as long as they demonstrate they are making meaningful strides in completing that departure,” according to the DHS, which portrays the procedure as a “dignified” and safe way to leave.

“If you are here illegally, use the CBP Home App to take control of your departure and receive financial support to return home. If you don’t, you will be subjected to fines, arrest, deportation and will never be allowed to return,” Noem said.

The app was previously called CBP One and was used by Customs and Border Protection to schedule arrivals for people seeking asylum during the Biden administration.

The self-deportation initiative is part of a $200 million DHS ad campaign pressuring undocumented migrants to leave the US and “stay out.”

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British police arrested a third man in an investigation into a series of arson attacks in north London, including a fire at a house belonging to Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

A 34-year-old man was arrested on Monday morning in Chelsea, southwest London, on suspicion of conspiracy to commit arson with intent to endanger life, London’s Metropolitan Police said in a statement.

Two other men — 21-year-old Ukrainian national Roman Lavrynovych and a 26-year-old man who has not been named — have also been arrested.

Lavrynovych was charged with three counts of arson with intent to endanger life over the three fires, which took place last week.

British police were called last week to the blaze at Starmer’s property in Kentish Town, north London — the constituency he represents. No one was injured, but the entrance to the home was damaged.

Starmer lived at the Kentish Town address with his wife and two children before moving into his official 10 Downing Street residence when he became prime minister last July.

Police are also investigating two other incidents — a fire at the entrance to an apartment block in nearby Islington and a fire involving a car, a Toyota RAV4, in Kentish Town, each taking place on separate days.

The car and both the properties were linked to Starmer, Westminster Magistrates’ Court heard on Friday when Lavrynovych appeared in court.

Counter-terrorism police have led the investigation into the fires given the prime minister’s involvement.

Starmer has called the incidents “an attack on all of us, on our democracy and the values we stand for.”

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