Russia is watching US policy like a hawk.

That was Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s message to reporters last week in Kyiv as he answered a question about Moscow’s willingness to negotiate. “It depends on the elections in the United States,” he said.

If elected, Kamala Harris is expected to largely continue the policies of the Biden administration, which have been supportive of Ukraine despite some friction points, like the use of Western weapons to strike deep inside Russia.

Taking a drastically different position, Donald Trump has suggested he will end support for Kyiv’s war effort and claimed he could settle the war “in one day.” Terms of a peace plan floated by his vice-presidential nominee JD Vance are strikingly similar to Putin’s wish list.

American policy is at a crossroads, but that won’t necessarily translate to a turning point in peace negotiations, analysts say.

That’s because nothing suggests Russia is ready to come to the table, regardless of who ends up in the White House.

“What [Trump] thinks he can do, what leverage he has, is unclear at this point – but I don’t think it’s a quick process,” said Thomas Graham, a Russian foreign policy expert and distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

A reduction in US aid spending could very well translate to changes on the battlefield, though, experts say.

Those cracks could come in the form of a Trump administration reducing US aid and taking a lesser role in NATO, or a split US Congress, among other factors. Financial pressures on European allies also play a role, as well as rifts in NATO, with pro-Russian leaderships in member states such as Hungary and Slovakia.

“Absent Western unity, absent a clear demonstration that the West and Ukraine have a common vision of what they’re trying to achieve… Putin has no reason to reconsider what he is doing in Ukraine at this point,” Graham added.

The scope of the war is also too large for a simple negotiation between Moscow and Kyiv, experts say. They argue it’s a much broader conflict between Russia and the West.

For Putin, “Ukraine is just a means to an end, and the end is to further limit US influence in international affairs,” said John Lough, an associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the London think tank Chatham House.

“When [Trump’s] advisers explain to him what’s really going on here and the fact that China has played a key role in sustaining Russia’s ability to continue fighting this war… he may feel suddenly very strongly that he’s not so well disposed to Putin,” Lough said, adding that Beijing will perceive any concessions “as a further indication of US weakness.”

That goes against Trump’s tough rhetoric on the threat posed by China.

Attritional war playing into Putin’s hands

Ukraine is already outmanned, and Putin appears ready to accept a high number of casualties. More than 600,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded, according to NATO.

“The enemy is increasing its troops to drive the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the Kursk region at any cost,” said Oleh Shiryaev, commander of the 225th Separate Assault Battalion that is fighting in Ukraine’s surprise incursion across the Russian border. “Russia’s main element in this war is the number of its troops – these are meaty assaults and offensive actions. They do this in all parts of the frontline.”

But Kyiv knows that’s not enough. On Wednesday, Ukraine’s Parliament voted to extend martial law and the draft for an additional 90 days. There are plans to call up an additional 160,000 people, the National Security Council announced.

Ukraine needs support for both its infantry and its equipment coffers, servicemen said.

“We have ammunition, but as artillerymen say, there is never enough,” said 15th Brigade National Guard Spokesman Vitaliy Milovidov, who is fighting in the eastern Donetsk region, where Russian forces continue to make incremental gains.

If a potential Trump administration cuts US aid, Ukraine would become increasingly outgunned.

European nations are scrambling to increase ammunition production for Ukraine to prevent backsliding, in the event that US support drops off.

But even if US policy continues along the current trajectory, Kyiv’s Western allies don’t appear willing to send the level of resources needed to make major battlefield gains.

“My hunch is that this is going to continue, at a lower intensity possibly, but for a long time,” Chatham House’s Lough added. “A Harris administration certainly wouldn’t sell out the Ukrainians, but it would really test their Ukrainian resolve and whether they are prepared to continue to fight this attritional war.”

That’s why Putin’s strategy also appears aimed at demoralizing Ukraine’s population.

Russia has repeatedly attacked civilians and civilian infrastructure. It has also hammered Ukraine’s energy grid, which exacerbates problems for everyday Ukrainians who will face a winter marred by lack of heating and water.

Analysts say the Ukrainian population is certainly exhausted, but they too don’t appear ready to settle in any way. After the mass killings of civilians in Bucha and Mariupol, the brutal treatment of Ukrainian prisoners in Russian custody, and the forcible deportation of Ukrainian children by the Russian state, they know the brutal realities of Russian occupation.

Zelensky, meanwhile, continues to call for support from both parties. If Trump “just wants to force Ukraine to give up everything and thus reach a deal with Russia, I don’t think that’s possible,” he said Thursday.

Israel expects its “Iron Beam” laser defense system to be operational within one year, saying it will bring “a new era of warfare” as it engages in a war of drones and missiles with Iran and its regional partners.

The Jewish state spent more than $500 million on deals this week with Israeli developers Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, architect of Israel’s Iron Dome, and Elbit Systems to expand production of the shield. Dubbed the Iron Beam, the shield aims to use high-power lasers to counter an array of projectiles, including missiles, drones, rockets and mortars, Israel’s defense ministry said this week.

“It heralds the beginning of a new era in warfare,” Eyal Zamir, director general of the defense ministry, said in a statement this week. “The initial capability of the ground-based laser system… is expected to enter operational service within one year,” he said.

Israel first unveiled a prototype of the Iron Beam in 2021 and has since been working to get it up and running.

The defense ministry’s comments come as Israel presses on with wars in Gaza and Lebanon, and after its military engaged twice in direct missile attacks with Iran.

Since Israel began its war on Hamas in Gaza last year, following the October 7 attack, it has also been fighting a war with the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance” across Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq. Iran and its partners have been seeking to overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome by pelting it with various projectiles, from rockets and drones to mortars and ballistic missiles, experts previously said.

From southern Lebanon, where Israel is now waging a ground war, Hezbollah’s rockets have reached deep inside Israel. Earlier this month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s beachside home in the coastal city of Caesarea was damaged in a drone strike claimed by the Shiite Lebanese group. One of the three drones that were launched evaded Israel’s aerial defense system.

Experts say the Iron Beam could be an added layer of defense for Israel, both in terms of effectiveness and cost.

How does it work?

The system uses a high-power laser that is stationed on the ground. With a range of hundreds of meters to several kilometers, the laser heats up the target’s shell in vulnerable areas, including its engine or warhead, until the projectile collapses.

This is different to Israel’s traditional means of destroying missiles and rockets, where radar is used to identify an incoming threat and then an interceptor missile is fired to destroy the projectile midair.

Compared to the Iron Dome, a laser shield would be cheaper, faster and more effective, experts said.

Israel has been intercepting projectiles almost daily since the war with its northern neighbor began. Just on Tuesday, some 50 projectiles crossed from southern Lebanon into Israeli territory, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said, adding that some were intercepted and others weren’t.

Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, which is helping produce the Iron Beam, said that a laser defense system has “almost zero cost per interception.” In 2022, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said each laser-based interception was expected to cost just $2.

The laser system would be most effective against drones, experts said, which Israel’s Iron Dome has repeatedly failed to intercept.

While Israel’s Iron Dome does intercept and destroy most projectiles, it is primarily designed to counter rockets and missiles, not drones. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are small, light and have a low radar signature, which means Israel’s radar systems will not always detect them the way they detect missiles, which are bigger, experts said. Drones also don’t always have a set destination and may change direction mid-travel.

The laser system will be very effective against drones, Kalisky said. The laser will be able to effectively “heat and destroy” drones and UAVs.

Who else has it?

Other governments have experimented with different types of laser systems. The US Navy has tested high-energy laser weapons that can destroy aircraft mid-flight and the United Kingdom has recently showcased a laser-energy weapon called DragonFire that can be used against aerial threats. The Pentagon has also said that China and Russia are developing lasers that could target satellites.

It is unclear if Iran has developed a laser defense system of its own. In 2022, Iran said it was “capable of manufacturing laser weapons to defend… sensitive regions,” state media said.

Iran is, however, suspected to have the Chinese-made “Silent Hunter” laser weapon, experts said, adding that the laser is not as high-powered as the ones designed for the Iron Beam.

Will it really be a gamechanger?

An Israeli Iron Beam would still have its drawbacks.

The laser system would not operate well in cloudy, rainy or hazy weather, experts said, adding that this decreases the laser’s ability to pass through the atmosphere and reach its target. The system would also require great amounts of power to keep it running.

The project’s aspirations and expected timeframe also remain unclear.

One of the main problems was that to meet their aspirations with this laser technology, governments always needed billions of dollars and decades of research, Bruchmann said. The world is yet to see if Israel “actually cracked the code this time,” and can operate it by next year, he said.

Kalisky of the INSS said that, while it is unclear if the Iron Beam will indeed be a “gamechanger” for Israel, it will still be “another layer of defense,” adding that it will likely be most effective against drones and short-range rockets and missiles. It may not be as effective against ballistic missiles, he said, which Israel’s Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 interceptors have traditionally thwarted.

Experts say the Iron Beam could also act as a deterrent to further attacks by Iran or its proxies. Last month, The New York Times reported that Hamas was keen to carry out its October 7 attack by the end of 2023, fearing Israel would start deploying its laser system, which would have been more effective against Hamas rockets. The newspaper was citing documents seized by the Israeli military and obtained by the Times.

“Iran and its proxies (may) calculate that this would be, from their point of view, a gamechanger,” Bruchmann said, “that it would seriously devalue the tens or hundreds of thousands of missiles they are building up as a strategic arsenal to deter Israel.”

Prince William has said he comes with “no other agenda” than wanting to “help people who are in need,” in a documentary series that follows the future King as he launches a five-year program he hopes will help end homelessness in six locations across the United Kingdom.

The “Homewards” program, launched in collaboration with the prince’s Royal Foundation, will provide up to £500,000 ($648,000) worth of seed funding in each of the six sites to support pioneering homeless initiatives, which – if successful – could be replicated in other locations, both nationally and internationally.

“The ultimate ambition is to prove that we can prevent homelessness in these regions so that others will come along and say, ‘well if they can do it, why can’t we?,’” the Prince of Wales said in the two-part ITV series, which aired in the UK on Wednesday and Thursday. “I don’t believe we should be living with homelessness in the 21st century.”

Filmed over a 12-month period, the documentary follows the prince and other experts on a hunt for potential solutions to the UK’s homelessness crisis.

When the Homewards program was launched last year, William faced some pushback for his involvement, seen by critics as ironic, or even counterintuitive, given his sprawling personal property portfolio. On the UK radio station LBC, he was dubbed the “prince of homelessness” by host James O’Brien.

But William opted to confront his detractors head-on in the film. “Why else would I be here if I’m not using this role properly to influence and help people where I can?” he said. “I like a big challenge, I do like that, but I can’t do it on my own.”

William’s ability to put people at their ease is a quality recognized by many featured in the documentary, including Sabrina Cohen-Hatton, who was formerly homeless but is now an advocate for the initiative, working closely with the prince.

Raised in Newport, south Wales, the 41-year-old started living on the streets when she was 15 years old. “My dad had a terminal brain tumor, he died when I was 9 years old,” she said in the documentary. “The impact on the family was enormous.”

Cohen-Hatton ended up sleeping rough on the streets of Newport to “escape” her family breakdown at home, she said. Like many UK cities, Newport has seen street homelessness almost double over the past three years, according to the documentary.

Now the chief fire officer for West Sussex Fire and Rescue Service in south England, Cohen-Hatton is supporting the prince by scouting out successful homelessness programs across the UK that could be scaled up.

“That’s one of the great things about the prince, he has real convening power. He’s able to get people around the table thinking about a perennial problem in a completely different way, and what their contribution to that could be.”

She added: “From my perspective, he has been absolutely critical in driving this forward.”

For Mick Clarke, CEO of London homelessness charity The Passage, the documentary offers viewers a glimpse of the real William.

“We see him as the real person. When he comes (to The Passage) he’s very relaxed, very chilled. I kind of get a feeling there’s a bit of a family relationship there, given the history back to when he was 11,” he explained in a Q&A after a press screening of the documentary. “He’s also very authentic and people who have lived with homelessness are very good at sussing almost instantly whether someone is straightforward, whether they are authentic or not, and he just feels very comfortable.”

He continued, “I think it shone a light on a side that we see all the time – that these guys will see in the meetings they have with him – but sometimes the public don’t.”

The second episode explored the issue of youth homelessness in the UK and saw the prince offer up Duchy of Cornwall land to build 24 new homes, which are set to be completed in 2025.

The two-part documentary will be available to stream globally on Disney+ from Friday, and viewers in the UK can catch up on ITVX.