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Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump threatened to jail people “involved in unscrupulous behavior” related to voting in the 2024 election, suggesting without evidence that the election could be stolen from him — and prompting widespread condemnation from election officials who said such rhetoric could provoke violence.

Trump’s remarks, made in a social media posting on Saturday night, represent the most overt signal yet that he may not accept the result in November if he loses.

Trump has a history of railing against election officials and raising unsubstantiated claims of fraud when his political fortunes appear uncertain, as they do now in his extremely close race with Vice President Kamala Harris. His comments are his most direct threats made against those tasked with administering elections this year.

In reality, illegal voting is exceedingly rare. But Trump appears to be replaying his efforts to sow doubt about the voting process ahead of the 2020 election — actions that contributed to the deadly Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.

“WHEN I WIN, those people that CHEATED will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the Law, which will include long term prison sentences so that this Depravity of Justice does not happen again,” Trump wrote on Saturday on his Truth Social platform. “We cannot let our Country further devolve into a Third World Nation, AND WE WON’T!”

Trump, who began his message with the words “CEASE & DESIST,” went on to threaten a wide range of the kinds of people who would face prosecution and prison time, including campaign donors and those involved in administering elections.

“Please be aware that this legal exposure extends to Lawyers, Political Operatives, Donors, Illegal Voters & Corrupt Election Officials,” he wrote, adding that such people will be “sought out, caught, and prosecuted at levels, unfortunately, never seen before in our Country.”

David Becker, who founded the nonprofit Center for Election Innovation & Research, urged the public to reject Trump’s inflammatory language.

“I can’t begin to describe the abnormality and disturbing behavior that would cause a presidential candidate, a former president, to threaten public servants with mass arrest,” said Becker, who previously worked as a lawyer for the Justice Department for seven years.

Several election officials also called threats of violence “unacceptable.”

“Donald Trump will not accept the results of the election unless he wins,” said Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold (D). “This is another step in his campaign to undermine confidence in our elections, which has led to unprecedented threats of violence against election officials.”

A spokesperson for the Trump campaign did not reply to a request on Sunday afternoon for comment on Trump’s post.

On Sunday, Trump doubled down on his baseless claims of election fraud, saying on Truth Social that he expects to win the key swing state of Pennsylvania “by a lot, unless the Dems are allowed to CHEAT.”

Late last month, during a conversation with the conservative Moms for Liberty group, Trump conceded that he lost the 2020 election “by a whisker” — marking one of his most clear public acceptances that he lost the election to Biden. Days later, he once again publicly acknowledged that he did not win the 2020 presidential election, telling podcaster Lex Fridman that he “lost by a whisker.”

In the wake of the 2020 election, Trump and his allies pushed to overturn the election results through phone calls, speeches, tweets and media appearances in six swing states where certified results declared Joe Biden the winner.

Trump most recently began escalating his rhetoric about election fraud when Harris replaced President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket and pulled ahead in some polls. In remarks before the Fraternal Order of Police last week, the former president urged officers to patrol polling places because it would intimidate would-be cheaters.

“I hope you watch for voter fraud,” he said. “Watch for the voter fraud because we win without voter fraud. … You can keep it down just by watching because, believe it or not, they’re afraid of that badge. They’re afraid of you people.”

But while Trump’s post on Saturday falsely claimed that there was “rampant Cheating” in the 2020 presidential race, Trump’s efforts to overturn his loss in the last election faltered in multiple courts when his lawyers and allies could not produce evidence of widespread voter irregularities. In nearly four years since, Trump and his allies have failed to substantiate his claims that he lost the 2020 race due to fraud.

In one of those cases, U.S. District Judge Steven D. Grimberg, whom Trump named to the bench in 2019 in the Northern District of Georgia, wrote that the president’s attempt to block certification of Biden’s win in the state “would breed confusion and potentially disenfranchisement that I find has no basis in fact or in law.”

Election officials who are credibly found to have engaged in criminal activities are already prosecuted in the country. Last month, for example, Tina Peters, a former county clerk in Colorado and Trump ally, was found guilty of seven charges connected to allowing a purported computer expert to copy election data from her office as Trump and his allies searched for evidence to prove their baseless claims of election fraud. Another county election official, Misty Hampton of Coffee County, Ga., faces felony charges along with 14 others, including Trump, for their role in trying to overturn the 2020 result.

And, in the years after Trump began baselessly alleging fraud in the 2020 election, some states such as Iowa, Georgia and Arizona have passed laws beefing up penalties for some election-related offenses despite a lack of evidence that elections in their states were run unfairly. In some cases, these new state election laws effectively criminalize election workers’ errors, raising concerns about the possibility of unfair prosecutions like the kind Trump appeared to describe in his post.

Threats and harassment of election workers have skyrocketed since Trump and his allies began denying the results of the 2020 election, amplifying their false claims on television, podcasts and social media. The developments caused a mass exodus of veteran election administrators from their jobs, and prompted scores of election offices around the country to harden their physical workspaces with bulletproof glass, emergency buttons and extensive crisis training.

Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D), who was directly targeted by armed pro-Trump protesters who gathered outside her home after the 2020 election, on Sunday told The Washington Post that no threats from Trump will dissuade her from performing her duties this election year.

Benson said that her job — and the job of every election official in the country — is to “rise above this noise and focus on continuing to ensure our elections are fair, secure, accessible, and that the results continue to be an accurate reflection of the will of the people.”

Seth Bluestein, a Republican Philadelphia city commissioner, said that every election official he knows “is focused on doing their job well, which unfortunately now also includes preparing for potential threats and violence.”

And Jeff Greenburg, a former director of elections in Mercer County, Pa., said on Sunday that the “continued demonization of election officials is disappointing, disheartening, irresponsible and infuriating.”

“Words matter and this does nothing but potentially put those dedicated public servants in harm’s way. It has to stop,” he said.

On Sunday, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, a Trump campaign surrogate, minimized Trump’s comments in an interview with NBC News’s “Meet the Press,” saying that the former president was “just putting people on notice” that the country must have “free and fair elections.”

But a Republican official in a battleground state who spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk candidly about Trump’s comments found the former president’s post more alarming.

“He sounds like he is losing it,” the Republican official said. “Sad, someone should do something, like replace him as a candidate.”

Toluse Olorunnipa contributed reporting.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

The Republican leadership of the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Sunday released a sprawling report on the U.S. exit from Afghanistan three years ago, blasting President Joe Biden and his administration as the callous and “dogmatic” orchestrator of a foreign policy failure so extreme that it ranked “far worse” than even America’s catastrophic withdrawal from Vietnam in 1975.

Democrats swiftly dismissed the 240-page report, the product of a two-year GOP investigation, as “nakedly partisan” and as the cynical manipulation of tragedy for use as a “political football.”

The document arrives just two months ahead of a tightly contested presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, and on the eve of their highly anticipated debate Tuesday in Philadelphia. Both parties said the timing of its release was intended to underscore Republicans’ recent efforts to revive public scrutiny of the withdrawal, which the committee’s chairman, Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Tex.), suggested could “disqualify” Harris in the minds of voters.

The committee has said as well that even with the report’s publication, its work will continue with the pursuit of additional witness testimony.

It was Trump, as president in February 2020, who negotiated the oft-criticized deal, known as the Doha agreement, with Afghanistan’s Taliban militant group to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners and withdraw all U.S. forces the following year.

In recent weeks, though, he has aggressively defended his decision to cut a deal while seeking to draw voters’ attention instead to the chaos that ensued in Kabul during August 2021, as Biden executed the agreement and brought America’s longest war to a messy and violent end. Trump last week accused Biden and Harris of bearing responsibility for the suicide bomb attack during the withdrawal that killed 13 U.S. service members “just like they pulled the trigger.”

But while the GOP report contains some minor new details, there are no major revelations that go beyond prior reporting already in the public domain via separate investigations conducted by the Defense Department, the State Department, news outlets and analysts, as well as the foreign affairs committee itself. And it contains no evidence that Harris played a major role in the withdrawal’s execution.

The report focuses intently on the chaotic and desperate noncombatant evacuation operation (NEO), a three-week crisis marred by images of horror as Afghans trying to escape the Taliban’s return to power died amid the crush of desperate crowds, while clinging to departing U.S. planes and in the suicide bombing just outside Kabul’s airport.

Among its findings that the committee emphasized were revelations first publicized months ago, such as the evacuation request coming on the day the Taliban entered Afghanistan’s capital, and one diplomat’s assertion that the U.S. Embassy’s top official had violated covid-19 protocols.

But the report stops short of presenting significant new evidence about the airport attack, an event Republicans have portrayed as the most egregious of Biden’s failures in overseeing the withdrawal. “Debate over whether the Abbey Gate attack was a lone suicide bomber or a complex attack, including gunfire after the bomb, has yet to be resolved,” the report says, citing a lack of aerial surveillance at the time of the attack, and the destruction of evidence by the Defense Department in the aftermath. A person familiar with the Defense Department’s investigation of the bombing said previously that it is true some photographs snapped by a sniper team overseeing the bombing site went missing.

And the report does not fulfill the GOP’s larger promise of accountability to the aggrieved families of the 13 slain Americans, some of whom appeared onstage at the Republican National Convention to show their support for Trump, who has shown them compassion and vowed transparency in ways that they say Biden has not.

“All they want — they want a phone call or a meeting from Harris or from Biden to say, ‘We know we did things wrong. It didn’t go well. And we are taking those lessons into account so that it never happens again,’” said Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), an Afghanistan war veteran who serves on the foreign affairs committee.

It’s unclear how deeply voters will consider the Afghanistan withdrawal when they cast their votes in November, and whether they are willing to link the catastrophic exit to Harris, whom Trump and McCaul have endeavored to cast as a critical decision-maker.

Within the pages of the report, “Biden-Harris administration” appears repeatedly — an adjustment that the committee’s Republican staff said it made in the final weeks of drafting the document. Yet there is scant mention of her as an individual, with the committee appearing to conclude that her most damaging behavior during the withdrawal was her absence of dissent.

“With the ascendance of Vice President Kamala Harris to the top of the Democratic presidential ticket, the GOP performance has reached a crescendo — Republicans now claim she was the architect of the U.S. withdrawal though she is referenced only three times in 3,288 pages of the Committee’s interview transcripts,” the panel’s Democrats said in a memorandum released simultaneously with the Republican report.

The Harris campaign said in a statement ahead of the report’s release that “Trump gave the Taliban everything they wanted,” referring to the Doha agreement. “Despite the deal’s drastic implications for U.S. military strategy and the safety of U.S. troops and allies, Trump left the Biden-Harris Administration with zero plans for an orderly withdrawal — only a dangerous, costly mess.”

The report’s larger conclusions are unsurprising. It pins the failures of the war’s endgame squarely on the Biden administration, which it says “prioritized the optics of the withdrawal over the security of U.S. personnel on the ground.” The administration’s last-minute move to organize the mass evacuation of noncombatants — largely Afghans who had worked in support of the U.S. mission — “created an unsafe environment” at Kabul’s airport, it says, ultimately resulting in the deaths of 13 service members.

“The Biden-Harris administration knew such an attack was not only possible but likely, yet they still failed to take the appropriate measure to mitigate the risk,” the report states.

What’s more, the report charges, Biden was determined to withdraw — regardless of the cost, the warnings from his generals or the apparent deterioration of security as the Taliban steadily gained ground. It also says officials “misled and, in some instances, directly lied to the American people at every stage of the withdrawal,” and accuses the entire administration of a vast “cover-up” led in large part by the White House National Security Council.

Sharon Yang, a White House spokesperson, characterized the GOP’s report as a “recycled, partisan” attack. “The fact remains,” she said in a statement, “that ending our longest war was the right thing to do and our nation is stronger today as a result.”

Republicans argue otherwise. The aftermath of the withdrawal has degraded U.S. national security and U.S. credibility on the world stage, as Afghanistan has again become “a haven for terrorists,” the report alleges, while America’s Afghan allies who were left behind have faced imprisonment, torture and murder at the hands of the Taliban. The chaotic exit “created a tidal wave of problems in Afghanistan, the United States, and around the world,” the report says, leaving billions of dollars’ worth of U.S. weapons and currency behind to the Taliban. And it “created a crisis within the U.S. military and among American veterans,” undermining recruitment and retention, it claims.

The report allots little space to the 19 years of war and policy decisions that came before the 2021 withdrawal, including under two Republican administrations. That task falls to the bipartisan congressionally mandated Afghanistan War Commission, which will deliver its own comprehensive report in 2026.

Democrats on Sunday panned the new report and noted the total absence of Democratic involvement in its drafting. “It is a politicized, cherry-picked report … a nakedly partisan campaign thing,” the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, Rep. Jim Himes (Conn.), said on CBS News’ “Face the Nation.” That is all it was “designed to do,” Himes said — “not shed light on a tragedy.”

The foreign affairs committee’s Democratic staff, led by Rep. Gregory W. Meeks (D-N.Y.), produced a 56-page document that largely echoes the administration’s previous defense of its handling of the evacuation. It highlights, for instance, that when the evacuation was over, “the Biden Administration had facilitated the largest humanitarian airlift in U.S. history and ended the United States’ longest war” — a rosy gloss on an endeavor that left thousands of Afghan allies and their families behind.

Meeks, in a letter to fellow Democrats, characterized the Republicans’ report as having excluded “anything unhelpful to a predetermined, partisan narrative” and said their GOP colleagues took “particular pains to avoid facts involving former president Trump.”

Asked on “Face the Nation” whether the GOP’s investigation identified any “mistakes by the Trump administration,” McCaul singled out Zalmay Khalilzad, the envoy Trump dispatched to negotiate the withdrawal with the Taliban. The report heaps ample blame on him while seemingly excusing Trump from Khalilzad’s decision-making.

Khalilzad responded to some of the report’s allegations against him, including the charge that he kept military leaders in the dark during U.S.-Taliban negotiations. “That is factually incorrect,” Khalilzad wrote on social media. “Far from having been kept in the dark, the military … fully participated in the negotiations with the Taliban.” He cited the direct involvement of Gen. Mark A. Milley, then the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Gen. Austin “Scott” Miller, who was the top commander in Afghanistan at the time of the Doha talks. “No agreement was made on any military issue without the full knowledge of our military leaders and their participation in decisions made by our leaders,” Khalilzad asserted.

He also pushed back on the report’s claim that he personally excluded the Afghan government from the negotiations, writing that the Afghan government and the Taliban were never able to reach a “mutual agreement on a new government” and that “there was widespread pessimism” among U.S. officials “that the Afghan leaders would put their country first and seek a realistic compromise.”

For his part, Trump, in 2021, celebrated Biden’s decision to stick with the withdrawal agreement his administration made with the Taliban — “Getting out of Afghanistan is a wonderful and positive thing to do,” he said at the time — and in the weeks before the Afghan government’s collapse, he touted how he’d made it difficult for Biden to do anything other than follow through with the withdrawal he put in motion.

“They couldn’t stop the process,” he said at a political rally in June of that year, referring to the Biden administration. “Twenty-one years is enough, don’t we think?” he continued, overstating the length of the conflict by a year. “ … They couldn’t stop the process. They wanted to, but it was very tough to stop the process.”

Danielle Douglas-Gabriel and Marianna Sotomayor contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

As we have discussed many times, financial markets are fractal. Different timeframes produce similar price structures. This is a very valuable phenomena for the study and practice of trading. When tracking the intraday time frame; Wyckoff structures of Accumulation, Markup, Distribution and Markdown repeat over and over. This creates a laboratory for study and analysis. Below is just such a case study. By paying attention to the intraday charts, the Wyckoffian often identifies setups brewing in the larger timeframes. The market’s intention in the larger picture is often first revealed in the intraday.

S&P 500 Index, Intraday 30-Minute Timeframe

Chart Notes

1.      The upward stride of the $SPX (30-minute timeframe) accelerated into Preliminary Supply (PSY) creating a local climactic event.

2.      The continuation of momentum carried the index into a Buying Climax (BC). Note the poor quality of the rally from the PSY to the BC. Supply is present!

3.      The Automatic Reaction was sudden and deep with expanding volume. Large sellers were present and motivated to reduce their holdings.

4.      The BC is critical Resistance and the AR is Support in the newly formed range-bound structure.

5.      A Cause was being built from the PSY to the Last Point of Supply (LPSY) that had the character of Distribution. Volatility on weakness to the Support line tipped off the presence of active selling and supply. Volume expanded during the second half of the Distribution structure. More Supply, Supply, Supply!

6.      A Last Point of Supply (LPSY) completed the Distribution which was confirmed by the immediate gap reversal and expanding spread on the return to the Support line. This volatility supported the conclusion that Distribution was complete and Markdown was the next phase. The decline below Support confirmed Markdown in progress.

7.      Downtrends, even small versions, are typically volatile with large up and down swings. They are ideal for study purposes, while only the most accomplished traders should consider campaigning them.

S&P 500 Index, 1-Box Method, 15 Minute Data, ATR Scale (12.51 pts)Distribution is a Cause building process for the next trending move of the index, which is expected to be downward. A 15-minute Point & Figure chart with ATR Scaling is used to estimate the potential for the extent of the subsequent decline. With this 1-Box reversal PnF chart we identifed two count segments. Counting from right to left the count was taken from the Last Point of Supply (LPSY) to the Buying Climax (BC) and to the Preliminary Supply (PSY). Two count estimates were generated: 5,366.75 and 5,291.73.

Chart Notes

1.      Using the vertical chart of the Distribution and the chart analysis and then identifying those points on the PnF, two counts were taken. The lower objective estimate suggested that the decline could take back the rally from August 14th to the BC high on August 22nd. So, volatility could ensue as there is little natural support to those lower objective levels.

2.      Volume was quite high into the PSY and the BC, which indicated active selling on a scale up by the Composite Operator (C.O.) community. Thereafter, C.O. selling was persistent at the 5,642.01 Resistance level. Note that volume expanded throughout the second half of the Distribution. This further confirmed the Distribution hypothesis.

3.      Supply engulfed the index as it fell out of the Distribution, and this can be seen in the very high downside volume. A rally into the underside of the prior Support zone is possible. Selling would be expected to continue from under the old Support zone.

4.      How, and if, the index approaches the PnF price objectives will tell much about the subsequent intention of the $SPX index. The stock market is always an unfolding picture.

This intraday structure is a Tempest in a Teapot for its small size in time and potential extent of the move. This is valuable training and good practice for a Wyckoffian. Please take the time to zoom out to the larger daily and weekly charts to study the greater picture. As they are fractal, your practice will speed the learning curve. And your path to mastery.

All the Best,

Bruce

@rdwyckoff  

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. 

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The TSAA-SF annual conference will be held on Saturday Sept 14th 2024 at Golden Gate University. It is an all day hybrid event, held both in person and via zoom. This year’s speakers include:

 * John Bollinger, CFA, CMT – Creator of Bollinger Bands, Author, Investor

 * Linda Raschke – Author of “Trading Sardines” Trader/Investor

 * Damon Pavlatos – CEO of Future Path Trading LLC & PhotonTrader

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 * Mike Jones – Data Engineer & Analytics Consultant

We are always on the lookout for chart patterns. Recently, we’ve found a bearish head-and-shoulders developing on Semiconductors (SMH).

Looking at the daily chart below, we can see the pattern developing. However, we do have to point out participation. Note the very low percentages on %Stocks > 20/50EMAs. These are clearly oversold readings and, if we look back at the vertical green lines that mark cardinal price bottoms, you’ll note they were at these levels. One thing to keep in mind is that oversold conditions can persist in a bear market. SMH is down over 20% from the July top, so we could see low readings for some time.

The Silver Cross Index is about to see a Bearish Shift across the signal line, and that would give us a Bearish Bias in the intermediate term. It is already at a very low 36% reading, suggesting how unhealthy this group is.

This head-and-shoulders pattern looks dangerous. Textbooks tell us that a break below the neckline would imply a downside move that is the height of the pattern. That would take price back down to 120.00. We doubt that will happen, but 160.00 doesn’t seem out of the question if this pattern executes.

Conclusion: Semiconductors (SMH) are in a bear market and are now forming a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern that would imply a drop well below 160.00. Given participation readings are very oversold, we aren’t so sure it will see that kind of devastation, but we definitely should be prepared for more downside from this group.


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This week, the market appeared to shift dramatically from “stalling out at all-time highs” to more of a “big time risk-off selloff move” kind of situation. The warning signs were building in August, but, so far, September is ringing all kinds of market topping alarm bells. Let’s review three key charts that tell the story of this shift in investor sentiment.

Weaker Momentum Indicates Bulls are Exhausted

When the S&P 500 first tested the 5650 level in July, the daily RSI pushed above 80 to reinforce the strong positive momentum. Then, when that level was retested in late August, the RSI was down around 60.

What appeared to be a potential pause before an upside breakout now seems to be a confirmed double top pattern with weakening momentum characteristics. This suggests an exhaustion of bullish sentiment and looks awfully similar to previous market tops.


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To be clear, the S&P 500 still remains within 5% of an all-time high.  But with the SPX down over 4% this week, and the Nasdaq 100 down almost 6%, bears appears to be back in control of the major market averages.

Elevated Volatility Implies Elevated Risks

I was super surprised to see the VIX come back down to the mid-teens in mid-August after spiking to one of its highest levels in history. Through late August, the VIX remained below the 20 level, suggesting a low-volatility environment.

This week, the VIX pushed back above that crucial 20 level, signaling elevated uncertainty and therefore elevated risk for stocks. Every day the VIX remains above 20 should give less comfort to bulls cautiously looking for a dramatic upside reversal.

Newer Dow Theory Flashes Bearish Non-Confirmation

Finally, we can look what I call the “Newer Dow Theory,” an adaptation of Charles Dow’s foundational work relating the movements of two major equity indexes. While Dow used the Dow Transports and Dow Railroads to gauge economic strength, I like to consider an equal-weighted S&P 500 and equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 to compare the performance of “old economy” versus “new economy” names.

Over the last six weeks, while the S&P 500 itself has stalled out around the 5650 level, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) has actually achieved a new all-time high. At the same time, the Direxion Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted ETF (QQQE) has actually displayed a lower peak. Dow called this configuration a “bearish non-confirmation,” where a new high from one index was not confirmed by the price action of another. And this bearish non-confirmation is a common feature of major market peaks.

As a trend-follower, I would argue that the primary trend in the S&P 500 remains bullish as long as the index remains above the August swing low around 5200. But given the growing signs of deterioration in these key macro charts, the likelihood of further downside in September feels very real.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

After initially forming a fresh incremental lifetime high, the markets succumbed to selling pressure from higher levels after spending some indecisive sessions during the week. The week that went by saw some early signs of the Nifty entering into broad corrective consolidation while ending near its low point of the trading range. Given the corrective undertone, the trading range got wider as well; the Nifty 50 oscillated in a 532.35-point trading range. The volatility spiked as well; the volatility barometer India VIX surged by 13.63% to 15.22 on a weekly basis. While setting a distinct corrective undertone, the headline index closed with a net weekly loss of 383.75 points (-1.52%).

In the previous technical note, it was categorically pointed out that the Nifty stays significantly deviated from its means; the nearest 20-week MA which is at 23795 is 1057 points below the current levels. The 50-week MA which is at 22208 is currently over 2640 points below the current close. Even if the Nifty attempts a modest mean-reversion, it can see this corrective bias getting extended. The derivative data suggests that the Index has dragged its resistance levels lower; the zone of 25000-25250 is now an important resistance for the index. So long as the Nifty is below this zone, it is likely to stay prone to profit-taking bouts from higher levels.

Expect the markets to start the fresh week on a soft and tepid note. The levels of 25075 and 25250 are likely to act as resistance points for Nifty; the supports come in lower at 24600 and 24480 levels.

The weekly RSI stands at 67.74; it has slipped below the 70 levels from the overbought area which is bearish. It however stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and above its signal line; however, the narrowing Histogram hints at an imminent negative crossover in the coming weeks.

A Bearish Engulfing candle has emerged; the occurrence of such a candle following an uptrend has the potential to disrupt the current trend. However, this will need confirmation going ahead from here.

The pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that the markets are showing some first signs of fatigue at higher levels. The zone of 25000-25250 has become an immediate resistance zone and until the Nifty moves past this zone convincingly, it is unlikely to show any trending move on the upside. It continues to deviate from its mean; this may keep the index somewhat vulnerable to corrective retracements.

All in all, the markets will likely continue exhibiting tentative behavior; unless the mentioned resistance zone is not taken out convincingly, the Nifty may remain under broad consolidation or corrective pressures. Defensive setup may also remain evident, pockets like IT, Pharma, FMCG, Energy, etc., may do well. Avoiding excessive leveraged exposures and staying highly selective while making fresh purchases is strongly recommended. While vigilantly guarding profits at higher levels, a cautious approach is advised for the coming week.


Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show the Nifty Pharma, IT, Consumption, and Midcap 100 indices are inside the leading quadrant. Though the Midcap 100 index is giving up on its relative momentum, these groups are likely to relatively outperform the broader markets over the coming weeks.

The Nifty Auto and PSE Indicex are inside the weakening quadrant; the PSE pack is showing strong improvement in its relative momentum against the broader Nifty 500 index.

The Nifty Financial Services, Commodities, Infrastructure, Banknifty, PSU Bank, Metal, the Realty indices continue to languish inside the lagging quadrant are are set to relatively underperform the broader Nifty 500 index. The Nifty Energy Index is also inside the lagging quadrant; however, it is seen sharply improving its relative momentum against the broader markets.

The Media and the Services sector indices are currently placed inside the improving quadrant.


Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  


Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

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Pope Francis emphasized the importance of a Catholic Church serving marginalized communities as he concluded his first full day in Papua New Guinea on Saturday, as part of a lengthy Asia tour.

Speaking to church leaders in the capital, Port Moresby, he told them to focus on the “peripheries of this country” and those in the most deprived urban areas.

He insisted the church was committed to helping those who are wounded “morally and physically” due to “prejudice and superstition.” According to rights group Human Rights Watch, Papua New Guinea is one of the most dangerous places in the world for women or girls, due to high rates of sexual violence.

Francis delivered his remarks at the Shrine of Mary Help of Christians church, where the Catholic community undertakes various charitable and educational works.

Beforehand he had visited the Caritas Technical Secondary School, a school for underprivileged girls, and those from the “street ministry” and “Callan services,” which work with the poorest and those with disabilities.

His decision to visit the school — which provides educational opportunities for girls — was significant given the discrimination and violence women suffer in Papua New Guinea. At the shrine, Francis also heard remarks from two women involved in church ministry.

The pope also spoke off-the-cuff during his talk, insisting twice that bishops and priests in Papua New Guinea follow the “style of God,” which is “closeness, tenderness and compassion.”

At the end, he greeted the crowd outside the church and, speaking in English, thanked them for their patience before offering them a blessing. He also joked with them to “pray for me, and not against me.”

Francis seemed in good spirits and everywhere he went was given a traditional welcome by groups from across Papua New Guinea in colourful tribal dress, singing and dancing.

The 87-year-old is currently on the longest trip of his pontificate – a marathon 12-day visit of four countries in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific, which also includes East Timor and Singapore.

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Massive train disruptions in Germany left hundreds of passengers stranded on Saturday, as authorities worked to restore traffic following a technical malfunction. Some traffic has since resumed.

Train services in central Germany have been “massively affected” due to a technical fault, the German rail company Deutsche Bahn said.

There were widespread train cancellations in the greater Frankfurt area due to a radio communications failure, public broadcaster ARD’s news service Tagesschau reported.

Trains traveling to or departing from Frankfurt were affected, and traffic through the major travel and financial hub was halted, according to Tagesschau.

Hundreds of passengers were stranded at Frankfurt’s Central Station on Saturday, without knowing when they could resume their journeys, Tagesschau reported.

One of the biggest transport associations in Germany, the Rhine/Main Regional Transport Association, or RMV, said in a post on social media on Saturday that due to a technical fault in radio communications, “train services in the RMV area have been suspended until further notice” and that neither S-Bahn trains nor regional trains could run.

“The duration of the disruption cannot currently be foreseen,” RMV said at the time.

It remains unclear what caused the technical fault.

Later on Saturday, Deutsche Bahn said the technical problem had been resolved. “Rail traffic in central Germany is starting up again. There may be disruptions until the end of the day,” it said.

Frankfurt is one of the most important European transport hubs with around 1,200 local and long-distance trains in regular service every day, according to Tagesschau.

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Three people have been killed and two wounded in an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon, authorities in the country said Saturday.

The Lebanese Ministry of Public health said three emergency workers were killed in the attack as they tried to contain a fire in the town of Froun, Nabatieh district. It said the attack was the second time an ambulance team had been targeted within 12 hours and was a violation of international law.

However, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said the strike had “eliminated terrorists” from the Amal movement, a Hezbollah-allied Shia group. The Amal movement released a statement saying two of its members had been killed “while performing their humanitarian and national duty in defense of Lebanon and the South.”

Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati characterized the strike as “a blatant violation of international laws and a blatant aggression against human values,” and called on Western ambassadors and other international representatives to attend an emergency meeting at his headquarters in Beirut on Monday.

He said the meeting aimed to demand accountability and “pressure the Israeli enemy that does not care about any law and continues to ignite the fire of its crimes against Lebanon and the Lebanese.”

Cross-border fire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah has been an almost daily occurrence since the war in Gaza began.

Hezbollah said Saturday it had responded to the strike on Froun by launching “a squadron of suicide drones” on a newly established IDF headquarters in Ayelet, northern Israel, and a “salvo of Al-Falaq missiles” at the Kiryat Shmona settlement. The IDF said it had identified several UAVs crossing from Lebanese territory, but that no injuries had been reported.

Lebanon’s Civil Defense director Brigadier General Raymond Khattar extended his “deepest condolences” to the families of those affected.

He also wished a “speedy recovery” to one of the injured men, whom the Civil Defense identified as Mohammad Amasha. The injured man had been “transferred to Tebnin Governmental Hospital, where he is undergoing surgery due to a serious injury he sustained as a result of the raid,” the Civil Defense said.

This is a developing story. More to come.

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Supporters of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro began flooding Sao Paulo’s main boulevard for an Independence Day rally Saturday, buoyed by the government’s blocking of tech billionaire Elon Musk’s X platform, a ban they say is proof of their political persecution.

A few thousand demonstrators, clad in the yellow-and-green colors of Brazil’s flag, poured onto Av. Paulista. References to the ban on X and images of Musk abounded.

“Thank you for defending our freedom,” read one banner praising the tech entrepreneur.

Saturday’s march is a test of Bolsonaro’s capacity to mobilize turnout ahead of the October municipal elections, even though Brazil’s electoral court has barred him from running for office until 2030. It’s also something of a referendum on X, whose suspension has raised eyebrows even among some of Bolsonaro’s opponents all the while stoking the flames of Brazil’s deep-seated political polarization.

“A country without liberty can’t celebrate anything this day,” Bolsonaro wrote on his Instagram account Sept 4., urging Brazilians to stay away from official independence day parades and instead join him in Sao Paulo.

Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered X’s nationwide ban on Aug. 30 after months of feuding with Musk over the limits of free speech. The powerful judge has spearheaded efforts to ban far-right users from spreading misinformation on social media, and he ramped up his clampdown after die-hard Bolsonaro supporters ransacked Congress and the presidential palace on Jan. 8, 2023, in an attempt to overturn Bolsonaro’s defeat in the presidential election.

The ban is red meat to Bolsonaro’s allies, who have accused the judiciary and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s government of colluding to silence their movement.

“Elon Musk has been a warrior for freedom of speech,” staunch Bolsonaro ally and lawmaker Bia Kicis said in an interview. “The right is being oppressed, massacred, because the left doesn’t want the right to exist.”

“Our liberties are in danger, we need to make our voices heard. De Moraes is a tyrant, he should be impeached, and people on the streets is the only thing that will convince politicians to do it,” added retiree Amaro Santos as he walked down the thoroughfare Saturday,

Musk, a self-proclaimed “free speech absolutist,” has also urged Brazilians to turn out in droves for the rally, resharing someone else’s post claiming that X’s ban had awakened people “to the fact that freedom isn’t free and needs to be fought for.” He’s also created an X account, named for the controversial jurist, to publish sealed court orders directing X to shut down accounts deemed unlawful.

But De Moraes’ decision to ban X was far from arbitrary, having been upheld by fellow Supreme Court justices. And while expression, online and elsewhere, is more easily censored under Brazil’s laws than it is in the US, Musk has emerged as both a cause célèbre and a mouthpiece for unrestricted free speech.

Since 2019, X has shut down 226 accounts of far-right activities accused of undermining Brazil’s democracy, including those of lawmakers affiliated with Bolsonaro’s party, according to court records.

But when it refused to take action on some accounts, de Moraes warned last month that its legal representative could be arrested, prompting X to disband its local office. The US-based company refused to name a new representative — as required in order to receive court notices — and de Moraes ordered its nationwide suspension until it did so.

A Supreme Court panel unanimously upheld de Moraes’ decision to block X days later, undermining Musk’s efforts to cast him as an authoritarian bent on censoring political speech.

The more controversial component of his ruling was the levy of a whopping $9,000 daily fine for regular Brazilians using virtual private networks (VPNs) to access X.

“Some of these measures that have been adopted by the Supreme Court appear to be quite onerous and abusive,” said Andrei Roman, CEO of Brazil-based pollster Atlas Intel.

In the lead-up to Saturday’s protest, some right-wing politicians defied de Moraes’ ban and brazenly used a VPN to publish posts on X, calling for people to partake in the protests.

The march in Sao Paulo is organized in parallel to official events to celebrate Brazil’s anniversary of independence from Portugal. Commemorations have been fraught with tension in recent years, as Bolsonaro used them while in office to rally supporters and show political strength.

Three years ago, he threatened to plunge the country into a constitutional crisis when he declared he would no longer abide de Moraes’ rulings. He has since toned down the attacks — a reflection of his own delicate legal situation.

Bolsonaro has been indicted twice since his term ended in 2022, most recently for alleged money laundering in connection with undeclared diamonds from Saudi Arabia. De Moraes is overseeing an investigation into the Jan. 8 riot, including whether Bolsonaro had a role in inciting it.

This post appeared first on cnn.com