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We are always on the lookout for chart patterns. Recently, we’ve found a bearish head-and-shoulders developing on Semiconductors (SMH).

Looking at the daily chart below, we can see the pattern developing. However, we do have to point out participation. Note the very low percentages on %Stocks > 20/50EMAs. These are clearly oversold readings and, if we look back at the vertical green lines that mark cardinal price bottoms, you’ll note they were at these levels. One thing to keep in mind is that oversold conditions can persist in a bear market. SMH is down over 20% from the July top, so we could see low readings for some time.

The Silver Cross Index is about to see a Bearish Shift across the signal line, and that would give us a Bearish Bias in the intermediate term. It is already at a very low 36% reading, suggesting how unhealthy this group is.

This head-and-shoulders pattern looks dangerous. Textbooks tell us that a break below the neckline would imply a downside move that is the height of the pattern. That would take price back down to 120.00. We doubt that will happen, but 160.00 doesn’t seem out of the question if this pattern executes.

Conclusion: Semiconductors (SMH) are in a bear market and are now forming a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern that would imply a drop well below 160.00. Given participation readings are very oversold, we aren’t so sure it will see that kind of devastation, but we definitely should be prepared for more downside from this group.


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Much like the southeastern portion of the U.S. frets over the potential of devastating hurricanes, stock traders and investors brace for their own financial hurricane this time of year. Last week, we saw the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) tumble, dropping nearly 6% during a holiday-shortened trading week. This isn’t unusual. The NDX has lost ground during September in 9 of the past 12 years:

Look at those average monthly returns for each calendar month over the past 12 years – since the secular bull market began in 2013. 9 of the 12 calendar months average double digits gains, with July (+4.4%), November (+3.9%), and May (+2.7%) topping the list. December (-0.1%) is the only other month showing a negative average return, though it’s essentially breakeven. That leaves September, which has averaged moving lower by 2.4% over the past 12 years, as the worst performer among all calendar months.

As August ends, it reminds me of Metallica’s hit, “Enter Sandman”. Remember the line, “exit light, enter night”? August is the light (at least on a relative basis) and September is the night. As soon as the calendar flipped, sellers appeared and were ready to rumble. Thus far, the bulls haven’t put up much of a fight.

There is a silver lining, however. We just need to escape September first. Here’s a seasonality chart of the S&P 500:

This covers the past 12 years, or the entirety of the current secular bull market, which, in my opinion, began the day that the S&P 500 cleared its 2000 and 2007 tops. That was on April 10, 2013 and the S&P 500 never looked back. Study those average monthly returns. You can clearly see a significant drop off in August and especially September, right? Then, like a water faucet being turned from cold to hot, the market heats up big time in Q4. By simply adding the monthly returns in each calendar quarter, you can see the following historical performance of the S&P 500 by calendar quarter:

  • Q1 (January, February, March): +2.2%
  • Q2 (April, May, June): +3.4%
  • Q3 (July, August, September): +1.2%
  • Q4 (October, November, December): +5.9%

Does this guarantee us excellent market returns in Q4 2024? Of course not. But it is ONE bullish historical signal that you should be aware of, especially if we begin to see bottoming signs form technically. The absolute BEST period of the year to be invested in the S&P 500 from a long perspective is from the October 27th close through the following January 18th close. The S&P 500 has ended that period higher that it began in each of the last 7 years and in 14 of the last 15 years. And if we stretch it further, that upcoming period has risen 38 of the last 41 years. It’s not a slam dunk, but the odds of the period ending higher sure do favor the bulls by a WIDE margin.

Let me add to this bullish history with one more fact. Since 1982, this October 27th close to January 18th close has seen the S&P 500 climb more than 10% 8 times, more than 9% 12 times, and more than 8% 16 times! Yet we’ve only seen 3 declines over that same period. The % lost in those 3 years are 8.98% (2016), 13.68% (2008), and 2.29% (2001). I’ll take my bullish chances when the September/October low forms.

I talked about potential levels on the S&P 500 when it finally reaches bottom over the next handful of weeks. My weekly market recap video for the week ended September 6th, “Where Is The Likely S&P 500 Bottom?”, is ready for your viewing pleasure. Please “Like” the video and “Subscribe” to our channel, if you haven’t already. Feel free to leave me a comment with your thoughts on the S&P 500 as well.

Also, on Monday, I’ll be breaking down a chart that looks like it is heading lower in a big, big way in our FREE EB Digest newsletter. If you’d like to see the article and you’re not already a free subscriber, CLICK HERE to register. There is no credit card required and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Happy trading!

Tom

Three Israeli border guards have been killed in a shooting at the Allenby Crossing on the border between the occupied West Bank and Jordan, the Israeli Emergency Services said Sunday.

The identity of the assailant is unknown at this time, and the Jordanian Interior Ministry said it begun an investigation.

The manager of the crossing, Alex Chen, said the shooter was a Jordanian driver, adding that the crossing has been closed until further notice. “The terrorist shot dead three employees of the Allenby terminal at close range,” before being killed by a security guard, he said.

All three land crossings between Israel and Jordan were closed following the attack, the Israel Airports Authority said. The Allenby crossing mainly serves Palestinians and foreigners, with Israelis not permitted to use it.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said “a terrorist approached the area of the Allenby Bridge from Jordan in a truck, exited the truck, and opened fire at the Israeli security forces operating at the bridge.”

“Three Israeli civilians were pronounced dead as a result of the attack,” the IDF said, adding that the assailant had been shot dead. The IDF also published a photograph of the hand gun it said was used in the attack.

Israeli police spoke of “several casualties at the scene,” and also said the shooter had “been neutralized.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned the shooting, saying the border guards were murdered by a “despicable terrorist.”

In remarks at the beginning of the weekly government meeting, Netanyahu said Israel was “surrounded by a murderous ideology led by Iran’s axis of evil.”

The incident on Sunday comes almost two weeks after Israel’s military launched one of its most expansive operations in the West Bank in years, carrying out raids, bulldozing highways, and launching airstrikes in multiple parts of the occupied territory.

Clashes in the West Bank have become more frequent since Israel began its war in Gaza in response to Hamas’ attack on southern Israel on October 7.

Israeli troops and settlers have killed nearly 700 Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem since October, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Ramallah, whose figures do not distinguish between militants and civilians.

Jordan became the second Arab country to sign a peace deal with Israel in 1994. It has been highly critical of Israel’s military operations in the West Bank and Gaza.

Jordan is a close ally of the United States, from which it receives substantial military aid.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Filipino pastor Apollo Carreon Quiboloy, who is wanted by both the FBI and local law enforcement officers on sexual abuse and human trafficking charges, has been arrested weeks after a standoff with the police.

In posts on Facebook, the Philippines’ Interior Minister Benhur Abolos, confirmed that the preacher, who had been on the run for three years, “has been caught.”

National police arrested Quiboloy, a self-styled “appointed son of God” and founder of the Kingdom of Jesus Christ church (KOJC), along with four of his aides in the southern city of Davao after they surrendered, according to Filipino state media.

At 1:30 p.m. local time (1:30 a.m. ET), the detainees were issued a 24-hour ultimatum to come out from the church’s sprawling 30-hectare (75 acre) compound. They surrendered four hours later, Philippine News Agency reported.

They have since been transported out of Davao by military aircraft, with booking procedures taking place at police headquarters in Quezon City near the country’s capital, Manila, according to state media.

“I thank him (Quiboloy) for the realization to face the law. I also thanked the KOJC members and supporters for their cooperation and I hope this is the start of healing,” Director of Police Regional Office 11, Brig. Gen. Nicolas Torre III, said, according to Philippine News Agency.

Police had been attempting to arrest the preacher and five of his alleged accomplices in a raid that began more than two weeks ago in Davao.

Nearly 2,000 officers had surrounded the church compound, where Quiboloy was believed to be hiding, in a violent standoff with the preacher’s followers. His followers allegedly threw stones at officers and blocked a highway with burning tyres, Davao police said on Facebook.

A 2021 US indictment accused the 74-year-old preacher and his alleged accomplices of running a sex trafficking ring that coerced girls and young women to have sex with him under threats of “eternal damnation.” Quiboloy has denied all the charges against him.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Israeli airstrikes in central Syria have killed three people and injured at least 15 others, state-run Syrian news agency SANA reported Sunday.

SANA said there had been several explosions and “air defense engagements” in the central region of Syria, including in the Tartous and Hama governorates, that resulted in multiple civilian casualties.

The Syrian news agency cited a military source as saying “the Israeli enemy launched an air aggression from the direction of northwest Lebanon, targeting a number of military sites in the central region” shortly before 8.30 p.m. local time on Sunday.

The source said Syrian air defenses had intercepted and shot down some of the missiles.

SANA said the strikes had damaged the Wadi al-Uyun highway in Masyaf and caused a blaze that firefighters were working to control.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Pope Francis arrived in the tiny Southeast Asian nation of East Timor on Monday for the penultimate stop on a marathon trip through Asia and the South Pacific for the 87-year-old leader.

But clerical sexual abuse is also hanging over this leg of the pope’s visit to the region as revelations of abuse concerning high profile East Timor clergy emerging in recent years.

East Timor, also known as Timor Leste, is one of the world’s youngest countries and has deep ties to the Catholic Church, which was influential in its tumultuous and bloody fight for independence from Indonesia.

The country of just 1.3 million people is the second most Catholic country in the world, with 97% of the population identifying as Catholic – the highest share outside of the Vatican.

The government of East Timor allocated $12 million for Francis’ first visit to the deeply devout country, which has been criticized as an exorbitant burden given it remains a small economy and one of Asia’s poorest nations.

The pontiff’s visit also puts fresh scrutiny on the scourge of sexual abuse in the church and on whether Francis will directly address the issue while he’s in East Timor, as he has done in other countries.

Two years ago, the Vatican acknowledged that it had secretly disciplined East Timor bishop and Nobel Peace Prize winner Carlos Ximenes Belo, after he was accused of sexually abusing boys in his home nation decades before.

In past trips abroad, Francis has met with victims of abuse. Though not on the official program of his visit, some analysts have said if Pope Francis addresses the abuse while in East Timor, it would send a strong message to survivors and those who have not come forward both in the country and around the region.

A regional bastion of Catholicism

Pope Francis’ 12-day visit to Asia includes Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor and Singapore – underscoring a significant shift inside the Catholic Church as it pivots to Asia.

He is the second pope to visit East Timor, after Pope John Paul II in 1989, but it’s the first papal visit for the country since it gained independence in 2002. The visit comes less than a week after the country marked the 25th anniversary of its vote to secede from Indonesia.

Located between northwestern Australia and Indonesia, the country occupies half of the island of Timor and was used by the Portuguese since the 17th century as a trading post for sandalwood.

Four hundred years of ensuing Portuguese colonial rule led to the widespread spread of Catholicism in East Timor and other cultural differences from Muslim-majority Indonesia.

Today, East Timor’s economy is heavily reliant on its oil and gas reserves, and still contends with high levels of poverty following decades of conflict.

Like other countries in the region, East Timor is in the middle of the United States and China’s push for influence in Asia, with US ally Australia at the forefront in providing assistance.

East Timor is also on track to become the 11th member of the Southeast Asian bloc ASEAN, which could happen next year.

Bishop Belo and sex abuse allegations

A leading pro-democracy figure during the Indonesian occupation was Bishop Belo, the former head of the Catholic Church in East Timor, who won the Nobel Peace Prize alongside President Jose Ramos-Horta in 1996 for their work in bringing a peaceful end to the conflict.

In 2022, the Vatican confirmed that it had sanctioned Belo two years prior, following allegations from two men who said the bishop raped them when they were teenagers and gave them money to buy their silence.

The Vatican said that Belo — who is understood to be based in Portugal — had been placed under travel restrictions, “prohibition of voluntary contact with minors, of interviews and contacts with Timor Leste.”

While the allegations against Belo date back to the 1980, the Vatican said it first became involved in the case in 2019.

Dutch newspaper, De Groene Amsterdammer, broke the news and said its investigation found that other boys were also allegedly victims of Belo’s abuse dating back to the 1980s.

Belo has never been officially charged in East Timor and has never spoken publicly about the accusations.

In a separate case, in 2021, a court in East Timor sentenced defrocked American priest Richard Daschbach to 12 years in prison for sexually abusing young, vulnerable girls in his care.

Daschbach, a missionary who ran a shelter for orphaned children in a remote part of the country, admitted to sexually abusing girls in 2018. The Vatican expelled him from the church following his confession.

It was the first time that allegations of sexual abuse committed by a priest had gone to trial in East Timor.

Many abuse victims in East Timor have been reluctant to come forward due to the church’s deep connection to the independence struggle, and because of the government’s treatment of the few who have been convicted.

Since Pope Francis became the leader of the world’s 1.2 billion Catholics in 2013, multiple reports detailing decades of sexual abuse, systemic failures and cover-ups across multiple countries have been released.

While he was criticized for some of his actions – such as when he defended a Chilean bishop accused of covering up a sex scandal in 2018, a decision he later described as a “grave error” – he has since taken a firm stance on the issues and introduced some reforms, including provisions for holding lay leaders of Vatican-approved associations accountable for cover-ups of sexual abuse.

The church and East Timor’s independence struggle

Amid civil war, East Timor was annexed by Indonesia in 1976 and declared the country’s 27th province following Portugal’s democratization and its decision to shed its colonies the year before.

Between 1975 and 1999, more than 200,000 people – about a quarter of the population – were killed in fighting and massacres or died as a result of famine as Indonesia’s occupying forces tried to brutally assert control.

Indonesia was condemned by the international community for its crackdown, including in 1991 when its troops massacred young independence supporters at the Santa Cruz cemetery in East Timor’s capital Dili. The capture and jailing of Timorese guerilla leader and now Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao the following year further fanned a resurgence in opposition to Indonesian rule.

It was Indonesian President Suharto’s fall from power in 1998 and an ensuing shift in policy toward East Timor that paved the way for a UN-sponsored referendum on East Timor’s independence – which passed with more than 78.5% support in 1999.

Soon after the vote, pro-Jakarta militias backed by the Indonesian military went on a killing and looting rampage in the capital, attacking churches, and targeting priests and those seeking refuge as they hunted down independence supporters.

Much of East Timor’s infrastructure was destroyed in the violence and about 200,000 people were forced to flee their homes. An Australian-led international peacekeeping mission ultimately intervened and East Timor officially won independence in 2002.

During Indonesian occupation, the Catholic Church played a huge role in defending people from attacks and pushing for a vote on independence – its church workers and the clergy paying a bloody price as a result.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

A man wanted for allegedly throwing scalding coffee on a baby in an unprovoked attack at a park in the northern Australian state of Queensland is now the subject of an international manhunt.

Queensland Police Detective Inspector Paul Dalton said Monday that officers were working with international partners to find the man, identified as a 33-year-old foreign national, who is known to have fled the country four days after the alleged attack.

A nine-month-old boy, known only as Luka, suffered serious burns on his face, arms and legs when the man allegedly threw the piping hot drink on him as he sat with his mother on the grass at Hanlon Park in Brisbane on August 27.

Closed circuit television video released by police shows the man running from the scene, wearing a blue plaid shirt, black hat and glasses.

Dalton said early investigations were delayed by false information about the man’s name and the suspect’s own surveillance of the police operation.

“It soon became apparent to us that this person was aware of police methodologies, was certainly conducting counter surveillance activities, which made the investigation quite complex,” Dalton told reporters.

After the attack, the man took a cab to Brisbane’s city center, then drove by car across the state border to New South Wales before flying from Sydney Airport on August 31.

“It wasn’t until the first of September that we were able to put a name to the face in the CCTV,” said Dalton, who declined to name the man or his destination for fear of hampering the investigation.

Dalton said police had identified the man shortly after he fled, telling reporters: “I was in the investigation center when we put a name to the face, and it was a very happy room, only for us to do a check in 15 minutes and find out we lost him.”

Dalton described the man as an “itinerant worker” who had come and gone from Australia on various visas since 2019 and had last entered the country in January 2022.

Police have been unable to determine the man’s motive.

“I’m continually scratching my head. We can’t find a motive,” Dalton said. “A rational, normal person, you would think, wouldn’t do something like that. But that’s not always the case.”

The boy’s mother, who can’t be identified for legal reasons, told local media at the time it was “all very quick and chaotic.”

“I didn’t really understand what had happened at the time, but I just started screaming for help and yelling out that it was hot and that my son was burnt,” said the mother.

Onlookers rushed over with water to douse the child before he was taken to hospital, where he has since reportedly undergone multiple surgeries for severe burns to his chin, neck, chest and back.

At the time, police released CCTV video of the man with a request for people who recognized him to come forward.

“The footage is quite clear. I’m very confident that if you’re looking at that footage and you know that person in there, you’re going to know who it is,” Dalton told media on August 28.

The investigation took police to New South Wales and Victoria, where the man had lived at several addresses on various work and holiday visas.

Police said they’d spoken to his colleagues about his movements.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

U.S. passenger airlines have added nearly 194,000 jobs since 2021 as companies went on a hiring spree after spending months in a pandemic slump, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation. Now the industry is cooling its hiring.

Airlines are close to their staffing needs but the slowdown is also coming in part because they’re facing a slew of challenges.

A glut of flights in the U.S. has pushed down fares and eaten into airlines’ profits. Demand growth has moderated. Airplanes are arriving late from Boeing and Airbus, prompting airlines to rethink their expansions. Engines are in short supply. Some carriers are deferring airplane deliveries altogether. And labor costs have climbed after groups like pilots and mechanics signed new contracts with big raises, their first in years.

Annual pay for a three-year first officer on midsized equipment at U.S. airlines averaged $170,586 in March, up from $135,896 in 2019, according to Kit Darby, an aviation consultant who specializes in pilot pay.

Since 2019, costs at U.S. carriers have climbed by double-digit percentages. Stripping out fuel and net interest expenses, they’ll be up about 20% at American Airlines this year and around 28% higher at both United Airlines and Delta Air Lines from 2019, according to Raymond James airline analyst Savanthi Syth.

It is more pronounced at low-cost airlines. Southwest Airlines’ costs will likely be up 32%, JetBlue Airways’ up nearly 35% and Spirit Airlines will see a rise of almost 39% over the same period, estimated Syth, whose data is adjusted for flight length.

Friday’s U.S. jobs report showed air transportation employment in August roughly in line with July’s.

But there have been pullbacks. In the most severe case, Spirit Airlines furloughed 186 pilots this month, their union said Sunday, as the carrier’s losses have grown in the wake of a failed acquisition by JetBlue Airways, a Pratt & Whitney engine recall and an oversupplied U.S. market. Last year, even before the merger fell apart, it offered staff buyouts.

Other airlines are easing hiring or finding other ways to cut costs.

Frontier Airlines is still hiring pilots but said it will offer voluntary leaves of absence in September and October, when demand generally dips after the summer holidays but before Thanksgiving and winter breaks. A spokeswoman for the carrier said it offers those leaves “periodically” for “when our staffing levels exceed our planned flight schedules.”

Southwest Airlines expects to end the year with 2,000 fewer employees compared with 2023 and earlier this year said it would halt hiring classes for work groups including pilots and flight attendants. CFO Tammy Romo said on an earnings call in July that the company’s headcount would likely be down again in 2025 as attrition levels exceed the Dallas-based carrier’s “controlled hiring levels.”

United Airlines, which paused pilot hiring in May and June, citing late-arriving planes from Boeing, said it plans to add 10,000 people this year, down from 15,000 in both 2022 and 2023. It plans to hire 1,600 pilots, down from more than 2,300 last year.

It’s a departure from the previous years when airlines couldn’t hire employees fast enough. U.S. airlines are usually adding pilots constantly since they are required to retire at age 65 by federal law.

Airlines shed tens of thousands of employees in 2020 to try to stem record losses. Packages of more than $50 billion in taxpayer aid that were passed to get the industry through its worst-ever crisis prohibited layoffs, but many employees took carriers up on their repeated offers of buyouts and voluntary leaves.

Then, travel demand snapped back faster than expected, climbing in earnest in 2022 and leaving airlines without experienced employees like customer service agents. It also led to the worst pilot shortage in recent memory.

In response, companies — especially regional carriers — offered big bonuses to attract pilots.

But times have changed. Even air freight giants were competing for pilots in recent years but demand has waned as FedEx and UPS look to cut costs.

American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said in an investor presentation in March that the carrier added about 2,300 pilots last year and that it expects to hire about 1,300 this year.

“We will be hiring for the foreseeable future at levels like that,” he said at the time.

Despite the lower targets, students continue to fill classrooms and cockpits to train and build up hours to become pilots, said Ken Byrnes, chairman of the flight department at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.

“Demand for travel is still there,” he said. “I don’t see a long-term slowdown.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

With less than 10 weeks before the presidential election, Donald Trump had a message for voters in late August: He would be selling more digital trading cards for $99 each.

“Fifty all new stunning digital trading cards — it’s really something,” Trump says in the ad. “These cards show me dancing and even holding some bitcoins.”

Buy 15 or more of the digital cards, he said, and he would mail a single physical trading card. Those came with a special perk: “An authentic piece of my suit that I wore for the presidential debate.” Five of the suit pieces would even be autographed, he promised. Those willing to buy 75 of the cards — at a total cost of $7,425 — were invited to attend a gala dinner at his country club in Florida, he said. “Let’s have fun together,” he said

On Tuesday, he again took to Truth Social for another post: selling a book — $99 without his autograph, $499 with his autograph — of pictures of himself. “A MUST HAVE on U.S. History,” he called it.

In both cases, the money was not going to his campaign but to for-profit ventures he earns millions from promoting. No presidential candidate has ever so closely linked his election with personal for-profit enterprises, selling a staggering array of merchandise that includes signed Bibles where he receives a royalty for hawking them, pricey sneakers, gold necklaces, cryptocurrency cards, pens, books, licensing fees on overseas properties and more.

His company’s website also sells a variety of political merchandise at higher prices than his campaign charges for the same items. A “Make America Great Again” hat that sells for $55 on his company website costs $40 through the campaign. A 3×5 flag from the campaign costs $43, while the same size flag on the company’s site costs $86.

“There’s no precedent in history at all, and certainly not in modern history, for somebody who has monetized the office or running for office of president the way he has,” said Don Fox, former general counsel for the U.S. Office of Government Ethics.

But Trump’s various moneymaking strategies also further a narrative that Democrats say resonates with voters: that the former president only cares about himself.

“One of the many arguments we make against Trump is that he cares solely about himself and his bottom line more than anything else, including the American people, it manifests itself in all sorts of different ways,” said Ammar Moussa, director of rapid response for the Harris campaign. “We have a lot of different proof points, and it’s not just him hawking bibles and ugly sneakers. It’s also, for instance, when he uses donor money to pay for his personal legal fees.”

A spokeswoman for Trump did not answer questions about how many deals he had struck, how much money he had made or whether he would continue such deals should he win the White House.

“President Trump left his multibillion-dollar real estate empire to run for office, donated his presidential government salary, and was the first President to actually lose net worth while serving in the White House,” spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said. “Unlike most politicians, President Trump didn’t get into politics for profit. He ran for president because he genuinely loves the people of this country and wants to make America great again.”

There are advisers and lawyers inside the campaign who say the deals are a little “slimy,” but “Trump relishes being able to market his name,” said one campaign adviser, who like some others spoke on the condition of anonymity to reveal internal details.

“His general belief is, ‘If I’m going to get attacked and have to pay all these lawyers and deal with everything, I need to make some money off it,’” the adviser said.

Trump has privately complained that being president has cost him money at some of his hotels, golf courses and luxury properties, a fact that is borne out by federal financial disclosures. In other places, he has made far more money because of the gig — jacking up his Mar-a-Lago Club’s membership fee to $700,000, for example, giving people a chance to have access to him.

“There’s nothing surprising considering the individual,” Fox said. “How does any of that commercialization of his former office and the one that he seeks again — how does that translate to making the lives of ordinary Americans better? It doesn’t. It just goes to lining his own pocket.”

Douglas Brinkley, a presidential historian at Rice University, said former presidents have often made money by selling books, giving speeches or serving on boards. “They raise money for their libraries, and they get big checks for their memoirs,” Brinkley said.

But he said no president or major-party presidential candidate had ever marketed themselves the way Trump has — with extensive licensing deals for gear, or merging a campaign for the presidency with a private business enterprise.

“In the sense of marketeering themselves in the way that Trump does, selling bobbleheads and MAGA gear, it’s a new lurch into campaign capitalism and profiteering off the White House,” he said. “It’s a real blurring of the lines between his private marketeering and campaign politics. You can quickly confuse the voting public.”

Leavitt called Brinkley’s criticism “an absurd allegation from someone who has no idea what he’s talking about.”

“President Trump had multiple No. 1 best-selling books long before he ever stepped foot in the White House,” she said.

Trump is interested in licensing deals and one-off deals where he does not have to make large time commitments, according to people who have dealt with the issue. In particular, he has liked the book deals where he makes millions from writing, or approving quick captions on pictures and signing some of the books — both with an upfront payment and a portion of the sales. He also has expressed a preference for deals where he can be paid to show up somewhere, particularly at events at his own club.

A person with knowledge of the discussions said the deals usually came directly to Trump or family members and were later scrutinized by lawyers, often after Trump had already said yes. Most of the deals were in the low millions of dollars, this person said.

“What he was willing to do depended on how much money he was getting, who was asking and what mood he was in,” the person said.

Trump often caused challenges to his lawyers and aides — for example, he demanded that the pro shop in his golf course sell MAGA hats, which was campaign merchandise that his private club cannot sell. Eventually, lawyers suggested an iPad be brought into the clubhouse so that people could make a donation to his campaign to get the hats.

Trump has sold a license agreement to a company that markets a panoply of products branded in his name. Those include various styles of golf shoes, perfume, coolers, and sandals among other projects. Trump hawked the athletic shoes during a stop at a Pennsylvania sneaker event this year, because part of the deal required him to promote them.

Last year, he reported making $300,000 from promoting a Bible with musician Lee Greenwood, who often appears at Trump events. The former president, who is not known to be particularly religious, asked his supporters to pay about $60 for the Bible. Greenwood approached Trump directly about the deal, people familiar with the matter said.

“All Americans need a Bible in their home, and I have many. It’s my favorite book,” Trump said in a Truth Social video. “I’m proud to endorse and encourage you to get this Bible. We must make America pray again.”

Some of Trump’s former and informal advisers have discussed launching a Trump vodka line, according to people familiar with the discussions. So far, that has not come to market. A person close to Trump said he has no plans to endorse or start a vodka line.

One of the more prominent deals includes Trump promoting shoes with his name and autograph on them. Those include “Never Surrender Gold Low Tops” that cost $499. There is a “Crypto President” pair of bitcoin orange sneakers for the same price, and a $299 pair of “Fight Fight Fight” shoes that include his bloody face and his arm foisted in the air after the July attempted assassination attempt in Butler, Pa.

“GetTrumpSneakers.com is not political and has nothing to do with any political campaign. 45Footwear is not owned, managed or controlled by Donald J. Trump, The Trump Organization, CIC Ventures LLC or any of their respective principals or affiliates. 45Footwear uses Donald J. Trump’s name, likeness and image under paid license from CIC Ventures LLC, which license may be terminated or revoked according to its terms,” the website says.

CIC Ventures is a Trump company. The deal includes Trump getting profits in exchange for promotion and autographed materials. He also had to approve the designs.

It is unclear exactly who profits — Trump advisers would not say, and 45Footwear is affiliated with an LLC by the same name that is based in Sheridan, Wyo., according to state records. The LLC was filed by a Wyoming lawyer named Andrew Pierce.

Pierce’s bio on his company’s website says he was “initially a Caribbean business developer” who “learned the hard way the importance of correct business structuring. His firsthand experiences led him to advocate for accessible legal guidance, culminating in the creation of WyomingLLCAttorney.com.”

On some occasions, Trump has benefited from political organizations that he controls. For example, at various political events, donors, supporters and allies are given copies of his picture book, including at the Republican National Convention in July, per attendees. The party has purchased the books.

One adviser described Trump spending hours signing the copies of the book but said he viewed it as worth the money.

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MOSINEE, Wis. — Former president Donald Trump wants to correct the record: Actually, women love him.

“Somebody said women don’t like Donald Trump,” the Republican presidential nominee told the crowd at a recent rally in Johnstown, Pa. “That’s wrong. I think they love me, I love them.”

Polling says otherwise.

President Joe Biden won women by 15 points over Trump in 2020, according to exit polls, up from former secretary of state Hillary Clinton’s 13-point victory among women in 2016. Polls suggest that this year, women prefer Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris over Trump by similar margins. Harris led Trump by 13 points among women in an ABC News/Ipsos poll released last Sunday. Before the Democratic National Convention last month, the same poll found her leading him by six points among women.

Trump appears to be trying to narrow that gap. In just the past several weeks, he has promised to have the government or private insurance companies pay for in vitro fertilization treatments (without offering specifics), debuted a muddled, confusing plan to address child-care costs (“a very important issue”) and promised his administration “will be great for women and their reproductive rights” (though he has also bragged about appointing three of the Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade). But he also spent much of a 49 minute news conference Friday railing against women who have accused him of sexual misconduct, describing their allegations as meritless.

At a rally Saturday in Mosinee, Wis., Trump again said he supports exceptions to abortion bans in cases of rape or incest, or to protect the life of the mother. But he also continued to praise the Supreme Court justices who made strict abortion bans possible by overturning Roe, saying he was “happy we had Supreme Court justices that had the courage to do that.”

“We did a great thing when we got Roe v. Wade out of the federal government,” the former president said. “We put it in the hands of the people and they’re voting.”

Trump’s rush of comments on child care, abortion rights and IVF are “clearly an effort to appeal to female voters,” said Tresa Undem, a partner at PerryUndem research, a polling firm that studies gender issues. But she predicted Trump’s efforts would not have much impact.

“Maybe some of his pro choice voters … maybe it sort of provides a little bit of relief if they hear he supports IVF, if they hear he supports abortion in some cases,” Undem said. “But I don’t think it’ll draw voters to him.”

In interviews at Trump’s rally at an airport in this small central Wisconsin city, women who support him said they were surprised by the gender gap in polling. Only some attendees had heard about his IVF proposal. Several said they were pro-life but supported his messaging that abortion laws should be left up to the states.

“I’m not going to vote for someone because they’re a woman,” said Pam Botwinski, a 68-year-old rally attendee from Mosinee, referring to Harris. “They always say he’s against women,” she added, before noting that Trump employs women throughout his campaign. “I mean come on, open your eyes.”

Darcy Yde, a nurse who also attended the Mosinee rally, described Trump’s IVF proposal as “pro-life” and said it could help him attract more female voters. She also acknowledged Trump’s latest messaging on abortion.

“He doesn’t want to turn off voters so he has to be a little muddy about that, I understand that,” Yde said, who identified herself as pro-life. “I think that it’s okay. I think that’s a subject that we’ve gone through so many times and I think people just kind of put it to the side because there are other big issues to contend with.”

In response to a request for comment, the Trump campaign did not expand on his IVF or child care statements and did not offer more detail on how the campaign plans to appeal to female voters.

Democrats hope that at least some Republican women will follow the lead of former congresswoman Liz Cheney and other GOP women who have turned against Trump.

“They’re misogynistic pigs,” Cheney, who represented Wyoming and has been a fierce Trump critic, said of Trump and Vance in an interview on Friday. “If you listen to what [Vance] he said about women and you look at Donald Trump, and what he has done and what he says about women, these are not people we can entrust with power again.”

Trump’s event in Mosinee had all the traditional trappings of a Trump rally. Attendees held signs that said “Drain the Swamp.” A screen behind the stage featured messages that highlighted the approaching the Nov. 5 election, encouraging attendees to “Make a plan to Vote” and to volunteer for the campaign. But Trump spoke behind bulletproof glass, a recent change since a gunman attempted to assassinate him in Butler, Pa., in July.

Attendees cheered as Trump’s airplane, Trump Force One, flew overhead, and they chanted “Fight, Fight, Fight” — echoing Trump’s own words after the assassination attempt — as he came onto the stage.

Trump’s speech was billed as focused on “draining the swamp,” but the former president, as he often does, rambled from subject to subject, complaining about immigrants, transgender people and his legal cases, and peppered his comments with falsehoods, including baseless claims that the Bureau of Labor Statistics intentionally manipulated its job numbers and that all new jobs are going to undocumented immigrants.

Trump didn’t talk about his IVF proposal or revisit his child care comments at Saturday’s rally. But he found time to compliment some of his fans from North Carolina on their hair. “I never see their husbands, so I don’t know what the hell is going on there,” he said. “Beautiful. And they’re always perfectly coifed. That means they have money.”

Trump received 56 percent and 58 percent of the vote in Marathon County, Wis., in 2016 and 2020, outperforming Mitt Romney and President George W. Bush. President Barack Obama is the only Democratic presidential candidate to carry the county in recent years, winning it in 2008.

The rally marked Trump’s second visit to Wisconsin in a little more than a week. Harris leads by four points in the state, according to The Washington Post’s polling average.

Dan Keating and Emily Guskin contributed to this report.

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