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A year before J.D. Vance was elected to the Senate, he advocated for a novel way to enhance the political strength of families — by giving parents the ability to cast tens of millions of additional votes on behalf of their children.

Vance, now the Republican nominee for vice president, in a 2021 speech called for encouraging Americans to have more babies and allowing them to more fully advocate for their children.

“When you go to the polls in this country as a parent, you should have more power,” he told the conservative Intercollegiate Studies Institute. “You should have more of an ability to speak your voice in our democratic republic than people who don’t have kids. Let’s face the consequences and the reality. If you don’t have as much of an investment in the future of this country, maybe you shouldn’t get nearly the same voice.”

Such a voting system would almost surely face legal challenges, experts in election law said. It would also create logistical hurdles. Election officials would need to track which voters were eligible to cast multiple ballots and regularly update their voter rolls to account for moves, divorces and court decisions in child custody cases.

Vance appears unlikely to push for the idea if he’s elected to the White House alongside GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump. Vance has not written legislation on the issue since he was elected to the Senate in 2022. Vance spokesman William Martin called his 2021 proposal “nothing more than a thought experiment on strengthening parents’ rights and not a concrete policy proposal.”

Trump has spent years baselessly calling into doubt mail-in ballots and other parts of the country’s elections system. A Trump spokesman did not say whether he supported Vance’s idea of letting parents cast additional votes for their children.

Vance, the best-selling author of the 2016 memoir “Hillbilly Elegy,” made his 2021 remarks a few weeks after he launched his Senate bid. In his 35-minute speech, Vance argued the right had lost control of all the nation’s cultural institutions and needed to encourage families to have more children to avert a “civilizational crisis” and reinvigorate the economy. He criticized the media, including The Washington Post, and lauded Hungarian President Viktor Orban’s policy of giving newly married couples loans that are forgiven if they stay together and have children.

Vance derided many Democratic leaders for not having children — including Vice President Harris, who has two stepchildren and is now the Democrats’ likely presidential nominee.

“What is the one thing that unites every single one of them?” Vance said of Harris and three other Democratic leaders. “Not a single one of them has any children. Now why is that? Why have we let the Democrat Party become controlled by people who don’t have any children?”

The next day, at another event, Vance said the left had built “an entire political movement that is explicitly anti-child and anti-family.”

Harris spokesman Ammar Moussa accused Vance of engaging in “ugly, personal attacks.” “Unlike Donald Trump and JD Vance, Vice President Harris understands that every single American has a stake in this country’s future,” Moussa said. In response, Vance’s campaign released a statement from Vance’s aunt Lori Meibers that called criticism of him “disgusting.”

The idea Vance floated was fleshed out this month in a law review article titled “Give Parents the Vote” by Northwestern University law professor Joshua Kleinfeld and Harvard law professor Stephen Sachs. Giving parents the chance to vote on behalf of their children would “profoundly alter the incentives of American parties and politicians,” they wrote.

Vance has not reviewed the article, according to his campaign, and he has not publicly gone into the level of detail that the authors do.

There are more than 70 million children in the United States, according to the Census Bureau, and they account for nearly a quarter of the population. They have major stakes in climate change, the size of the federal government’s debt and long-term policies, Kleinfeld and Sachs wrote. They wrote that allowing parents to vote for children has to be taken seriously even if it sounds like a “silly provocation” at first.

Under their plan, single parents would get to cast ballots on behalf of their children. Two parents who had shared custody would each effectively cast half a vote for each child. That way, a child’s ballot would be cast even if the parents disagreed on whom to vote for. That part of the plan would complicate the work of election officials, who would be responsible for keeping track of the “fractional votes” cast on behalf of children.

Kleinfeld and Sachs downplayed the potential for fraud, saying election officials could establish systems to identify suspicious activity like ones the Internal Revenue Service uses to find people who falsely claim dependents on their tax returns. In response to questions, Sachs in an email called the logistical considerations of their proposal “a hurdle, but not an insurmountable one.”

Allowing parents to cast votes for children is in line with giving them the power to make educational and medical decisions on their behalf, the pair wrote in their law review article.

Which party would benefit from allowing parents to vote on behalf of their children is unclear, they wrote.

“As to policy, while both parties will surely assemble new coalitions around issues of interest to parents, it’s hard to know what those issues will be,” they wrote, predicting politicians would start to push for “more child tax credits, more focus on school quality, more emphasis on public safety, more environmental protection, and more concern with long-term financial risk.”

In his 2021 speech, Vance didn’t delve into the details of his proposal, such as what to do when parents disagree on how to cast a child’s ballot or whether to allow someone to vote on behalf of orphans who are wards of the state. He also did not address whether noncitizens who are barred from voting would be allowed to cast ballots on behalf of their children who were born in the United States and have citizenship. (Vance recently signed on to legislation meant to prevent granting birthright citizenship to the children of immigrants who are in the county illegally.)

Joshua Douglas, an election law professor at the University of Kentucky, said he was intrigued by allowing parents to vote for children but questioned whether it would pass muster in court.

“My guess is that a court would more likely strike it down as violating the idea of equal representation because it’s one person getting more technical votes,” he said. “Even though they’re voting almost as a proxy for their children, they’re getting more votes than someone who doesn’t have kids.”

Edward Foley, an election law professor at Ohio State University, agreed such a system would face a tough road in court.

He expressed doubts about the merit of the proposal. Democracy is built on the idea that all voters get an equal say and are responsible for thinking about what’s best for the entire community, not just themselves, he said.

“I applaud the idea of making sure that our political system is well designed to think about the interests of kids,” he said. “But that doesn’t mean giving extra votes to parents. It means everybody as a voter should be thinking about all the interests that are worthy of protection.”

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

It had the feeling of a fond farewell. There wasn’t a heavy dose of bitterness, and there was more than a hint of pride.

But the man who has probably given more eulogies than any other U.S. politician had a significant amount of wistfulness tucked inside his Oval Office address. A bit like he is starting to reconcile with the idea that he is soon exiting political life, something that has guided him for more than five decades. The man who entered political life as one of the youngest U.S. senators in history is coming to terms with leaving as the nation’s oldest president in history.

“Nowhere else on earth could a kid with a stutter, from modest beginnings in Scranton, Pennsylvania, and Claymont, Delaware, one day sit behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office as president of the United States,” Biden said. “But here I am.”

But he’s here for only a little bit longer.

The whole point of the address was to explain to the nation his decision Sunday to abandon his run for reelection and endorse Vice President Harris as his successor. In a way, he didn’t really accomplish that. There wasn’t a heavy dose of introspection in the speech, with emotions no doubt still raw over leaving a race that in his core he still felt he may have been able to win. He didn’t acknowledge the bitterness felt over those he considered friends stating publicly that it was time for him to go.

Instead it was the first of what will be many farewells — and also the first attempt to claim credit for what he hopes will cement his legacy. He has long been frustrated by what he sees as the lack of credit he has received for his accomplishments, feeling that voters should have given him higher marks for steering the country through the pandemic, an economic fallout and entrenched political divisions.

“I’ve come so far since my inauguration,” he said.

During his remarks, he listed his accomplishments and laid out some of his priorities for the final months he has left. He pointed mostly to foreign-policy efforts, including strengthening NATO to fight Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, trying to secure a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in exchange for the release of the remaining hostages and bringing home Americans who have been detained abroad.

He mentioned a series of domestic accomplishments, including a stronger economy, broader manufacturing base and a burst of computer chips manufacturing and science innovation.

“We finally beat Big Pharma,” Biden said at one point. That was the bungled line he had during a June 27 debate with former president Donald Trump, when he instead confusingly said, “We finally beat Medicare!”

It wasn’t the only problem in his confused, rambling performance during the debate, but it was that line more than any other that led party leaders to raise significant questions about the 81-year-old president, call on him to drop out and cause him to give the Wednesday night address. One reason that the decision was so hard for Biden was that he has genuinely felt that he has had a historically successful presidency, and he didn’t feel like he had completed the tasks he set out to do.

He also hinted in the remarks that he himself felt he deserved a second term but acknowledged that the doubt about him within his party was growing too all-consuming for him to overcome.

“I believe my record as president, my leadership in the world, my vision for America’s future — all merited a second term,” he said. “But nothing, nothing can come in the way of saving our democracy. That includes personal ambition.”

“So I’ve decided the best way forward is to pass the torch to a new generation,” he added.

He spoke from the Oval Office, a place that he called a “sacred space.” He referred to the portraits around him, of Thomas Jefferson (“wrote the immortal words that guide this nation”) of George Washington (“showed us presidents are not kings”) and Franklin D. Roosevelt (“inspired us to reject fear.”)

“I revere this office,” he said. “I love my country more. It’s been the honor of my life to serve as your president.”

There was no hint of second-guessing the decision he announced just three days earlier, and he has fully backed Harris.

“I’d like to thank our great vice president, Kamala Harris,” Biden said. “She’s experienced. She’s tough. She’s capable. She’s been an incredible partner to me and a leader for our country. And now the choice is up to you, the American people.”

First lady Jill Biden sent out a handwritten note just after the remarks. She made clear that she was also backing Harris. But as a fierce defender of her husband, she also made clear that she was most appreciative of those who had avoided second-guessing a loyal party stalwart who thought he could still run.

“To those who never wavered, to those who refused to doubt, to those who always believed, my heart is full of gratitude,” she wrote. “Thank you for the trust you put in Joe — now it’s time to put that trust in Kamala. Love, Jill.”

Four years ago, Biden had said that he viewed himself “as a bridge, not as anything else.” He pointed to a new generation of leaders that were the future of the country. For most of his time in office, though, he viewed that bridge as an eight-year one. He saw no need to step aside.

His remarks on Wednesday night illustrated in the starkest of ways that the end of his bridge is in sight, and a new era has arrived.

“There is a time and a place for long years of experience in public life,” Biden said. “There’s also a time and a place for new voices. Fresh voices. Yes, younger voices. And that time and place is now.”

He tapped on the Resolute Desk for emphasis.

Toward the end of his remarks, he seemed to take the tone of a man who had finished a race, of a college graduate reviewing an academic career, or of a worker getting ready to leave their station for the final time before retirement.

“I gave my heart and my soul to our nation, like so many others,” he said. “I’ve been blessed a million times in return with the love and support of the American people. I hope you have some idea how grateful I am to all of you.”

It’s still not goodbye exactly. He vowed to stay active for another six months, in what will be one of the longest lame-duck periods in recent memory.

As he spoke, in a portrait just behind him, was a photo of his late son Beau, who died of cancer in 2015. It was Beau who urged his father to stay active in public life. It was Beau who was very much the inspiration to run for office. And it was Beau who still brings a tear to his eyes when he speaks about him. Biden never mentioned him, but his presence was clearly felt as he seemed to feel like he made good on the pledge to his son to remain active.

He was, as he always has been, surrounded by family.

Sitting nearby was his wife and some of his grandchildren. His son Hunter was along the curved oval wall, along with his daughter Ashley and granddaughter Finnegan.

Toward the end of the remarks, Ashley reached for the hand of her mother, Jill Biden.

When his remarks concluded, the family and staff in the room burst into applause.

“This has been the honor of a lifetime,” Biden told the room.

Yasmeen Abutaleb contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

Tops and bottoms are so much fun to predict, but key signals are not always accurate. That’s where a healthy dose of skepticism comes in. At EarningsBeats.com, we try to put as many signals together as possible, looking for corroboration. That helps to build confidence in the signals. For example, I turned short-term cautious last week for a few reasons.

First, I’m a student of history and I know that the period from the July 17th close through the July 24th close is the 3rd worst week of the year historically. That covers all trading days since 1950 on the S&P 500 and since 1971 on the NASDAQ. The annualized returns for this July 17-24 period on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are -16.37% and -32.12%, respectively. Also keep in mind that the worst period of the year is NOT May 1st through October 31st as the “go away in May” folks, who obviously do little research, would have you believe. Instead, it’s July 17th through September 26th. During this period, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have produced annualized returns of -2.36% and -5.40%, respectively. That may not seem like much, but consider that the -2.36% annualized return on the S&P 500 covers 3,643 trading days since 1950. That’s the equivalent of 14+ years. How excited would you be about investing if I told you that the S&P 500 would go down an average of 2.36% per year through 2038? Probably not too excited. Well, that’s the equivalent of what has happened during this bearish period since 1950. The NASDAQ’s -5.40% annualized return for the same period covers 2622 trading days, or roughly 10 years. This is just a small sample of the quality research that we provide our members every day.

Second, last week was max pain week. That’s the week when monthly options expire. This is generally a very difficult period for U.S. equities and last week was no exception. Every month, we provide our members a list of approximately 135-140 stocks, showing their closing price as of the Friday before monthly options expiration Friday. We then provide each stock’s max pain price, which essentially is the price point at which market makers would pay out the least amount of options premium. Let me give you a few examples of how this worked so beautifully last week. Below I’m providing stock symbols, their closing price (CP), their max pain price (MP), and their low price (LP) last week:

  • NVDA: 129.24 CP, 100.89 MP, 116.56 LP
  • AMZN: 194.49 CP, 172.48 MP, 180.11 LP
  • AMD: 181.61 CP, 160.07 MP, 150.62 LP
  • MSFT: 453.55 CP, 426.13 MP, 432.00 LP
  • AMAT: 243.40 CP, 217.99 MP, 210.26 LP

Do you see the value in knowing about max pain? It literally saved many of our members thousands of dollars. I don’t use this information to guarantee me that a stock is going to drop to its max pain price. Instead, I use this information as a directional clue, no different than a positive or negative divergence, key price support or resistance, overbought and oversold territory, etc. It’s simply one more clue that max pain provides. And I’d say the clue was quite helpful for July.

Next, how about the reversal just as the 5-day SMA of the equity only put call ratio ($CPCE) hit a key complacency level that tends to mark tops?

The red circles highlight the two times that this signal didn’t work out well, but plenty of others worked just fine, especially last week’s, tipping us off to a reversal to the downside.

Finally, any time I see the correlation between the S&P 500 and the Volatility Index ($VIX) turn positive, the odds increase that we’ll see a reversal in the S&P 500 – either lower off an uptrend or higher off a downtrend. Check this latest positive correlation that once again sparked a reversal:

You can see that the VIX and SPX move opposite one another most of the time, resulting in a correlation that is almost always in the -0.50 to -1.00 range. Trips above zero, however, do offer a hint as to a possible market reversal and this latest signal also worked again. Remember, these are ALL short-term cautious signals, not long-term.

What To Look For Longer-Term

There’s a TON to watch, but let me give you 3 short-term technical clues I’ll be watching, in order of importance:

  1. Technology (XLK)
  2. Semiconductors ($DJUSSC)
  3. NVIDIA Corp (NVDA)

It’s no secret that technology represents 32% of the S&P 500 and 50% of the NASDAQ 100. If this group breaks down, the odds of a further drop would increase significantly. Let’s look at the XLK:

Let me say that bearish patterns forming during secular bull markets MUST confirm. I give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls every single time during a secular bull market advance, which is exactly what we’ve had on our hands since the April low. But we have external factors like the Fed that could quickly change the technical picture, which is why I’m watching these other signals so closely.

This is an absolutely CLASSIC head & shoulders topping pattern. All of the markers are present. First, a negative divergence printed with a bearish engulfing candle at the top. The resulting low changed the character of the chart, at least temporarily, by printing a lower low. Note that the selling did stop at the 50-day SMA and also above both gap support and price support. Unfortunately, we’re left with a down-sloping neckline, which if violated, would be much more bearish. The bounce that we’re seeing could be the formation of an important right shoulder at the now-declining 20-day EMA and/or the bottom of gap resistance, or possibly slightly higher to rein in the last buyers before a much more significant decline. The measurement of this head & shoulders pattern, if executed, would be roughly 205, a far cry from the current 226 level.

We should also keep an eye on the RSI. The bounce off 40 was beautiful, but normal bull market pullbacks touch that level and then take off. A return trip to RSI 40, or below, would start to paint a more bearish picture.

Next, semiconductors:

Semiconductors will be the primary key for technology. This chart doesn’t look a whole lot better than the XLK chart itself. I circled 4 very bearish days in the past month that suggest significant distribution. Prior to mid-June, I don’t know if we had 4 similar days earlier in all of 2024. RSI support is teetering with one test already at 40. We have a double bottom on the AD line and a rapidly-deteriorating PPO, though, for now, it remains above centerline support. We don’t have a major breakdown just yet, but key warning signs are there. And the semis represent a huge chunk of the XLK. I’m not showing it here, but the DJUSSC has a negative divergence on its weekly chart, so short-term breakdowns could become much more severe.

Working our way down the totem pole, next up is NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), which has problems of its own. Because it’s the poster child of semiconductors, a breakdown in this critical stock would be very detrimental to both the semiconductor group and technology, as a whole. Check out NVDA and zero in on its key areas of support:

Listen, here’s your leader in semis. Everyone will be watching to make sure NVDA holds support. Make no mistake, I am BULLISH NVDA, the semis, and technology over the long-term, but could Q3 be a problem? Yes, it very well could.

To conclude, I’m worried about the market here. I see issues building not just on the charts above, but within our economic structure. The Fed may have a lot to say about how deep the current selling/downtrend goes. I’m not a fan of Fed Chief Powell and I’ve been quite vocal about the Fed’s delay in cutting the fed funds rate. This lack of rate cuts is just now beginning to show up in deteriorating economic conditions. This is important enough that I wanted to hold an event this Saturday for our EB.com members. I’ll be discussing the many warning signs that are now popping up, along with what it would take for me to turn much more bearish. If you’ve followed me, you know that I don’t get bearish every other week. I have not been bearish since I said to go long U.S. stocks on June 17th, 2022, during the depths of the 2022 cyclical bear market.

If you would like to join this event, “Why The S&P 500 May Tumble”, on Saturday, July 27th at 10:00am ET, simply CLICK HERE to learn more and to register. We are very likely to reach capacity, so please register TODAY. We’ll get your FREE 30-day trial started and you’ll be able to experience all the benefits of an EarningsBeats.com membership.

Be careful out there!

And, as always, happy trading!

Tom

In this video from StockCharts TV, Julius takes a look at the markets through the lens of the “market factors” panel you can find on your StockCharts dashboard. Starting from the RRG, he then moves to the individual charts for these factors and notes a low correlation for small-cap value stocks. This makes them a good group to look in for new (buying) opportunities, as they seem to be moving relatively agnostic to the moves in the S&P 500 and S&P composite indices.

This video was originally broadcast on July 23, 2024. Click anywhere on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past episodes of Julius’ shows can be found here.

#StayAlert, -Julius

Almost everyone felt the ground shake on July 19 when security vendor CrowdStrike (CRWD) initiated a faulty software update that caused a Windows systems failure worldwide, and millions of screens displaying the infamous blue screen of death (a.k.a. BSOD). Crowdstrike’s stock price fell 11% on Friday and dropped further by over 13% on Monday.

I was supposed to check in for a United Airlines flight the day following the incident when I suddenly received an alert that my flight had been canceled. It took only a second to learn that CrowdStrike was responsible for the mess.

Preparing for a Crowdstrike News Trade

If you’ve been watching the market, you might have guessed that CRWD would take a hit while its rival, Palo Alto Networks (PANW), got a boost. CRWD, the second-largest cybersecurity company in the US, had decent fundamentals. But, the big question is how it will handle the looming customer lawsuits.

If you’re bullish on CRWD and think it will recover from its debacle (which isn’t over, btw), its recent drop presents a prime buying opportunity. Let’s assume this is what you’re looking for. Here are the key levels to watch.

CrowdStrike: Key Levels to Watch

Looking at CrowdStrike’s daily chart, you can see that before the July 19 slip-up, CRWD was already overextended (check the black dotted lines). This was evident in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF).

CHART 1. DAILY CHART OF CROWDSTRIKE. CRWD has entered a buy zone, but watch out for momentum (and watch the news).

Although this is an important “technical” indication, you’ll want to keep an eye on it, because it will be compounded by even more negative media coverage (as in stories of ongoing failures, commercial impact, potential lawsuits, etc.). 

As long as you keep that in your sights, take a look at the Fibonacci Retracement levels (in blue) and the support/prior resistance lines (green dotted lines). Buyers jumped in at $245 where the 50% Fib and upper support lines converged. Should the price continue to slump, the range between $245 and $207, where the 61.8% Fib line and second support level converge, serves as a strong buying point.

The Ichimoku Cloud not only gives you a picture of the projected uptrend (should it continue) but also a range for potential support on the higher end of the price action. If the price falls below $207, you will have to reassess the technical, fundamental, and news-driven context.

The Close

While CRWD, the second-largest US cybersecurity company, faces challenges and potential lawsuits, its recent stock dip might be a buying opportunity for the optimistic. Keep an eye on momentum, the buying levels, and the news updates. Things can get a lot better or a lot worse for the company in the weeks to follow.

P.S. Grayson Roze’s ChartWatchers Post on CrowdStrike

CHART 2. GRAYSON ROZE’S TAKE ON CROWDSTRIKE’S PRICE ACTION.

Grayson Roze is eyeing the chart and thinking, “Is this a massively bullish moment for CRWD?” The stock just bounced off prior resistance-turned-support and its 200-day MA in a longer-term uptrend. If this bottom holds, we could see a bullish formation. CrowdStrike’s recent chaos, taking half the internet offline, shows its critical role like Amazon or Google. Roze uses the Traffic Light indicator on ACP, marking bullish, bearish, and neutral zones, to set thresholds based on his analysis.

You check out his chart here.



Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Two people were killed and at least 13 injured Tuesday when an elevated walkway collapsed in a condemned Italian slum notorious for its links to organized criminal groups.

The Italian Fire Brigade said a 29-year-old man and a 35-year-old woman were killed in the collapse at the Le Vele housing slum in the Neapolitan suburb of Scampia.

More than 800 people were living as squatters in the apartment complex at the time, including 300 children, according to the fire brigade. All have been evacuated to tent camps set up by the country’s civil protection agency.

The complex was made famous in Roberto Saviano’s “Gomorrah” book, film and television series, which detailed the exploits of the Camorra, a powerful Neapolitan mafia-like group.

Several criminal groups tied to the Camorra operated out of the apartments and wings, many of which were protected behind heavy fencing and bullet-proof glass, according to local police who regularly raided the buildings. It was also notorious as a venue for drug deals.

The housing complex, built in the 1970s and 1980s, originally consisted of four apartment buildings shaped like sails (“vele”) joined by elevated walkways. But in 2020 regional authorities ordered the site to be cleared and razed. Since then, three of the buildings have been demolished and only one now remains.

The cause of the collapse at that one remaining building is not yet clear, but the structure has been condemned for years and amenities like running water, electricity and gas are all brought in illegally.

In recent years, the complex has been inhabited by people who lost their homes during a devastating earthquake in 1980 that killed nearly 2,500 people and left 250,000 homeless. Many of those people moved to the complex while waiting for new homes promised by the national government that never materialized.

After the order to clear the complex in 2020, the local municipality launched a redevelopment project to house those still living at La Vele. That project is still ongoing but remains unfinished.

Naples mayor Gaetano Manfredi expressed his condolences to those affected by the collapse and offered assistance to those who still live there.

“Now is the time to think about the victims – but I want to reiterate that our redevelopment project will not stop and our commitment to Scampia will be even stronger than before,” Manfredi said.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also expressed sadness at the news.

“In this hour of pain, my condolences go to the victims’ families together with a thought of closeness for the wounded and their loved ones,” she wrote on social media. She also thanked emergency services for their help.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

At least six people are dead and seven missing after a fishing vessel carrying 27 onboard sank in the South Atlantic about 200 miles off the coast of the Falkland Islands.

The fishing vessel, FV Argos Georgia, requested assistance soon after it began sinking east of the islands at about 4 p.m. local time Monday, the Falkland Islands government said in press release Tuesday.

The crew abandoned ship and some managed to board life rafts, the government said.

Some of those who boarded the life rafts have since been rescued, but a search is continuing for those still missing, the statement said.

Citing British and Spanish maritime authorities, the Associated Press reported that 14 people had made it onto a life raft and were rescued by nearby fishing boats. It said at least six people had died and seven remained missing. At least 10 of the crew members were identified as Spaniards, the AP reported.

Those who have been rescued will be taken to the King Edward VII Memorial Hospital in the capital Stanley for medical assessments, according to the Falkland Islands government.

A search and rescue operation involving helicopters and vessels began on Monday and will continue throughout the night on Tuesday.

The Falkland Islands said that a search and rescue helicopter had unsuccessfully attempted to rescue crew members on Monday evening but was thwarted due to “extremely challenging weather conditions and very limited time on scene due to range.”

“The helicopter returned to Stanley Airport to refuel prior to a second attempt but the weather worsened further, and rotary wing SAR operations were suspended,” it added.

In addition to the Falkland Islands government, the search and rescue operation involves the government of South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands, HQ British Forces South Atlantic Islands, the UK Maritime & Coastguard Agency, the management company of the fishing vessel, and other fishing vessels at sea.

“The Falkland Islands government sends their thoughts to all the families involved,” it added.

Argentina’s Navy said it had also attempted search and rescue operations after being alerted about the ship’s sinking.

The Falkland Islands, which lie about 300 miles east of the tip of South America, are a British-ruled overseas territory over which Britain and Argentina fought a brief war in 1982. Britain won that war but Argentina continues to claim the islands, which it refers to as Las Malvinas.

According to the Associated Press, the Argos Georgia is managed by Argos Froyanes Ltd, a privately-owned joint British-Norwegian company, and was sailing under the flag of St Helena, another British overseas territories in the South Atlantic.

“This accident highlights the harshness of fishing activity and the sacrifice and risk that sea professionals experience,” said Carmen Crespo, chair of the Committee on Fisheries, for the European Parliament in a statement on Tuesday.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

An interim deal to smooth deliveries to Philippine marines marooned on a ship at a hotly disputed reef in the South China Sea appears to be in doubt after Manila and Beijing gave opposing accounts over what they had agreed to.

Fears of a conflict with global implications have risen in recent months following a series of increasingly violent clashes between Chinese coast guard vessels and Philippine ships at Second Thomas Shoal in the contested Spratly Islands, where Manila grounded a navy ship in 1999 to press its claims.

Following de-escalation talks, Manila and Beijing both said they had reached a “provisional arrangement” on the resupply of necessities to Philippine marines stationed aboard the BRP Sierra Madre – without either side conceding their maritime claims.

But analysts were skeptical about whether the temporary deal would hold after the two sides provided conflicting details of what their agreement entails.

Here’s what you need to know.

What’s in the deal?

Neither Manila nor Beijing has released the text of the temporary agreement reached on Sunday to cool tensions at the reef, known as Ayungin Shoal in the Philippines and Ren’ai Jiao in China, which is located about 200 kilometers (125 miles) from the Philippine island of Palawan.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Monday that Beijing had agreed to allow Manila to resupply its personnel on the Sierra Madre with living necessities “in a humanitarian spirit.”

Those resupply missions could only take place “if the Philippines informs China in advance and after on-site verification is conducted,” spokesperson Mao Ning told a regular news briefing.

“China will monitor the entire resupply process,” she added.

Those remarks met pushback in Manila.

The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said in a statement on X that the country would continue to assert its rights in the South China Sea, noting the provisional agreement with Beijing had been reached “without compromising national positions.”

Therefore, the Chinese statement “regarding prior notification and on-site confirmation is inaccurate,” the DFA said.

The Philippines made the deal in good faith, was ready to implement it, and urged China to do the same, the statement added.

How did we get here?

Beijing claims “indisputable sovereignty” over almost all of the 1.3 million-square-mile South China Sea, and most of the islands and sandbars within it, including many features that are hundreds of miles from mainland China. The Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei and Taiwan also hold competing claims.

In 2016, an international tribunal in The Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines in a landmark maritime dispute, which concluded that China has no legal basis to claim historic rights to the bulk of the South China Sea.

China has ignored the ruling: Manila says Beijing continues to send its maritime militia and coastguard vessels to Mischief Reef and Scarborough Shoal in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.

Under President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr, the Philippines has taken increasingly assertive steps to protect its claim to shoals in the South China Sea, leading to several confrontations off the Philippine islands.

They include standoffs between Chinese boats and tiny wooden Philippine fishing vessels; Chinese attempts to block the resupply of the BRP Sierra Madre with water cannons; and a bold move by a lone Filipino diver armed with a knife to sever a massive floating Chinese barrier.

In a major escalation on June 17, the Philippines and China blamed each other for a clash near Second Thomas Shoal in which a Philippine serviceman lost a thumb.

Footage released by the Philippine military showed Chinese coast guard officers brandishing an axe and other bladed or pointed tools at the Filipino soldiers and slashing their rubber boat, in what Manila called “a brazen act of aggression.”

The clash took place just weeks after President Marcos warned that the death of any Filipino citizen at the hands of another country in the South China Sea would be “very close” to an act of war.

What’s at stake?

The resource-rich South China Sea is widely seen as a potential flashpoint for global conflict, and Western observers say tensions could erupt if China, a global power, decides to act more forcefully against the Philippines, a US treaty ally.

Washington and Manila are bound by a mutual defense treaty signed in 1951 that remains in force, stipulating that both sides would help defend each other if either were attacked by a third party.

The US is not a claimant to the South China Sea, but says the waters are crucial to its national interest of guaranteeing free passage through seas worldwide.

The US Navy regularly conducts freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) in the South China Sea, saying the US is “defending every nation’s right to fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows.”

Beijing denounces such operations as illegal.

In remarks at the Aspen Security Forum on July 19, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the United States would “continue to support the Philippines and stand behind them as they take steps” to resupply the Sierra Madre.

“The most important thing right now is to see de-escalation and to see the ability of the Philippines to do resupplies. We believe that is achievable, and we’re going to drive to make that happen,” Sullivan said.

What happens next?

Analysts have cast doubt on whether the temporary deal between Manila and Beijing will ever be implemented.

Gregory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, said both sides may have withheld the written details to allow them to save face – and their differing interpretations could undermine the agreement.

“We’ll only know for sure when we see how China reacts to the next Philippine resupply mission,” he said.

“If the resupply gets through unmolested despite the fact that the Philippines certainly won’t tell China in advance or allow any inspection of the cargo, then that will be a victory for Manila’s strategy over the last two years. And it will certainly be a relief to the United States.”

Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at the US-based RAND Corporation think tank, said the deal did not address the underlying territorial disputes and appeared to have failed before it had even started.

“The China-Philippines deal is already falling apart, probably because Beijing wishes to keep the appearance of diplomatic engagement while continuing to uphold its bottom line interests – a low-risk and highly effective strategy,” he said.

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A reality show contestant who killed and ate a protected bird has been let off with a warning after New Zealand wildlife officials said cast members were tired, hungry and placed in a “unique” situation.

The weka, named on the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s red list of threatened species, is protected in mainland New Zealand, where the penalty for killing one is a prison sentence of up to two years or a fine of nearly $60,000.

“Race to Survive” pits nine teams of two contestants in a 150-mile race across New Zealand’s harsh terrain, in which they must find their own food and water to compete for a $500,000 prize, according to USA Network, which airs the show.

In a clip from the show, Jones apologizes and says he knew eating the weka was against the law, but he was desperate and hungry, RNZ reported.

Jones and his teammate Oliver Dev were disqualified after the incident.

New Zealand’s Department of Conservation said following an investigation it had issued written warnings to Jones and the show’s producers – but stopped short of tougher action.

“The unique set of circumstances – cast members were fatigued and suffering from significant hunger, in an unusual group dynamic situation – meant we felt a warning letter was prudent,” said Dylan Swain, the department’s team lead for investigations.

“Nonetheless, killing and eating a native protected species in this matter is unacceptable and the company is ‘on notice’ about the need for its program participants to adhere to conservation legislation.”

The weka has a “famously feisty and curious” personality, according to the department, and is known for its loud “coo-et” call, which is presented as a duet, with the male taking on the lower, slower part.

“Weka are usually heard, not seen,” the department says on its website.

Once widespread, its populations now fluctuate depending on food conditions, which had led to the bird’s legal protection in mainland New Zealand. The harvest of weka is legal on some of the country’s surrounding islands.

Swain said the producers of “Race to Survive” had a permit to film on public conservation land and were aware that protected species and plants could not be harvested or eaten.

In a statement, “Race to Survive” production said it alerted authorities as soon as they became aware of the weka incident.

“Contestants were all thoroughly briefed ahead of time, and reminded throughout the competition, of all of New Zealand’s wildlife rules and guidelines,” its statement said.

“It was determined that a contestant did in fact violate a rule, so appropriate action was taken, and the team was disqualified from the competition.”

Jones and Dev were favored to win before they were pulled off the course, according to USA Network.

New Zealand has a plethora of unique flora and fauna due to its long geological isolation from the supercontinent Gondwana, according to independent conservation organization Forest and Bird.

This long isolation and the absence of mammalian predators means many native species are defenseless against attack – including flightless birds like the weka.

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A powerful and rapidly intensifying typhoon is barreling toward Taiwan, disrupting ongoing military drills and prompting authorities to close financial markets, schools and offices.

Typhoon Gaemi is expected to strengthen into a super typhoon before making landfall on Taiwan’s northeastern coast Wednesday evening.

It is then forecast to continue toward China’s Fujian province on Thursday, bringing more strong winds and downpours to a country already hit hard by weeks of extreme rain and deadly flooding.

Gaemi is currently the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic, with maximum sustained winds of 220 kilometers per hour (140 miles per hour), according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

It will land near the epicenter of April’s earthquake in Hualien county. The 7.4 magnitude quake was the largest Taiwan had seen in 25 years, injuring more than 1,000 people and collapsing buildings.

Taiwan is often struck by typhoons and has a generally strong track record in preparing for the damaging winds and downpours they can bring, especially in the cities. The more at risk populations tend to be more remote and mountainous areas, especially on the east side of the island, where landslides can be pose a major danger.

Taiwan’s Central Meteorological Agency has issued a sea and land typhoon warning for the entire main island as Gaemi’s powerful winds are expected to strengthen further to 240 kph (150 mph).

Heavy rain hit Taiwan ahead of the storm’s landfall on Wednesday, with the island’s mountainous areas already reporting rainfall approaching 200 millimeters (8 inches). Rainfall well over 500 mm (20 inches) is possible for the central mountains of Taiwan, according to the CMA.

Typhoon Gaemi is strengthening in Pacific waters that have been at their warmest temperatures on record. Scientists have found that hotter oceans caused by the human-caused climate crisis are leading storms to intensify more rapidly.

Gaemi, the first typhoon of the season to affect Taiwan, has strengthened by 96 kph (60 mph) in the last 24 hours, well exceeding the definition of rapid intensification which is 56 kmh (35 mph) in 24 hours.

Most Taiwanese cities, including the capital Taipei, chipmaking hub Hsinchu and the southern city of Kaohsiung, closed schools and offices on Wednesday while Taiwan Railways suspended some rapid train services.

Dozens of flights have also been canceled for Wednesday and Thursday, with three of Taiwan’s largest carriers – EVA Air, China Airlines and Starlux Airlines – announcing disruptions due to the typhoon.

Taiwan’s defense authorities said they had to modify ongoing annual five-day Han Kuang War Games due to the typhoon. The live-fire drills are the biggest annual military exercises of their kind in Taiwan, where the armed forces are increasingly vigilant against the threat of invasion from China.

“We will adjust some of the air and naval elements given the typhoon situation,” defense ministry spokesperson Sun Li-fiang told reporters in Hualien.

Typhoon Gaemi has also forced the closure of schools and government offices in the Philippines as heavy rains hit the Manila capital region and the main island of Luzon. Some flights have been canceled and the Philippine Stock Exchange said it would cease all trading Wednesday.

Images show roads and streets in Manila flooded by rains brought by Typhoon Gaemi, as people wade through knee-deep water.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. earlier said more than 770,000 people have been affected by the typhoon and southwest monsoon in the country’s southern regions, and 4,500 personnel were on standby to assist with search and rescue operations.

More extreme weather misery for China

Because the storm is strengthening prior to hitting Taiwan, Gaemi will also be stronger than previously expected when it hits China Thursday afternoon local time (early Thursday morning ET).

Though weakened, Gaemi is expected to make landfall in China as the equivalent to a strong Category 1 or low-end Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 145 to 160 kph (90 to 100 mph.)

The worst of the winds are expected to occur in coastal areas of Fujian province, but heavy rain will spread across Fujian, southern Zhejiang and Jiangxi provinces for the rest of the week.

By the weekend, the remnants of Gaemi will likely spread heavy rainfall farther north into areas of China like Henan, Shanxi and Hebei provinces which have been hit hard by flooding in recent days.

For many in China, the prospect of another major storm bringing more water is a big concern.

In the past two weeks, tens of thousands of people have been evacuated across multiple provinces in China following deadly floods and landslides, which have blocked highways, destroyed homes and caused devastating financial losses as they wiped out crops and livestock.

Torrential rainfall hit southern, central and eastern parts of the country and led to major emergency response efforts in a flood season that has started some two months ahead of its typical schedule.

In Henan province, the flooding came after a period of scorching temperatures that complicated efforts to grow and irrigate vital crops in parts of central China’s agricultural heartland. Then, extreme rain inundated tens of thousands of acres of cropland and forced more than 100,000 people to evacuate their homes, according to state media.

The flooding in Henan and surrounding provinces – and the double hit of arid heat and floods in a matter of weeks – has prolonged what has already been a devastating period of extreme weather across China that’s forecast to continue.

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