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Vice President Harris secured a majority of the pledged delegates to the 2024 Democratic National Convention, Democratic Party officials announced Friday, officially making her the party’s presidential nominee and concluding an unprecedented process after the former Democratic standard-bearer dropped out less than two weeks ago.

The more than 4,000 convention delegates had until Monday to submit their ballots, but no other candidate qualified to challenge Harris, making her selection all but certain. Still, the formal nomination ascent of the first woman of color to lead a presidential ticket marks a milestone for a nation long riven by racial and gender issues.

“I am honored to be the presumptive Democratic nominee for president of the United States,” Harris said on a call with supporters. “And I will tell you the tireless work of our delegates, our state leaders and staff has been pivotal in making this moment possible.”

The announcement was made moments before by Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison, who noted that Harris crossed the threshold just a day after online balloting began. The vote is being held open through Monday.

“The fact that we can say today — just one day after we opened voting — that the vice president has crossed the majority threshold and will officially be our nominee next week, folks, that is simply outstanding,” Harrison said.

After President Biden abruptly bowed out of the race on July 21 and endorsed Harris, Democratic leaders scrambled to create a nomination process that did not rely on state primary contests, all of which Biden had already won. The new nomination contest allowed anyone to run if they obtained 300 signatures of delegates supporting their bid, including no more than 50 from any single delegation, while meeting other basic qualifications.

With top party officials seeking to rally the party to confront the candidacy of Donald Trump, no elected Democratic politician besides Harris announced their intention to seek those signatures. The candidates who did signal their intent to seek the nomination failed to obtain the required signatures.

On Tuesday, the Democratic National Committee said that 3,923 delegates had petitioned to put Harris on the ballot for the nomination, a large majority of the total delegate pool.

Party leaders decided months ago, when Biden was still expected to be the nominee, to use a virtual vote to finalize the nomination, rather than waiting for the party convention in Chicago on Aug. 19-22. They said the early nomination was needed because legal ambiguities in Ohio’s early deadlines meant that Biden could be kept off the ballot in that state.

Ohio ultimately amended its timeline for ballot qualification, but the Democrats stuck to their plans for a virtual nomination. Under the party’s rules, delegates do not need to vote on Harris’s vice-presidential selection.

Democratic convention planners are preparing a symbolic roll call for prime-time television coverage in Chicago, with representatives of each state offering their votes for Harris in a customized fashion.

Harris becomes just the second person of color in America’s nearly 250-year history to head a major presidential ticket, after Barack Obama in 2008. Harris is Black and Indian American, and Trump has recently attacked her identity and suggested that she formerly downplayed her Black heritage, an assertion for which there is no evidence.

Harris will also be the second female major-party nominee, after Hillary Clinton in 2016, when Clinton lost to Trump in a contest that stunned Democrats and upended the political landscape.

Amy B Wang and Maegan Vazquez contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris hired a battery of new senior advisers to her campaign this week, moving swiftly to replace lifetime loyalists of President Biden with Democratic campaign veterans, including multiple leaders of Barack Obama’s presidential bids, according to people briefed on the campaign shifts.

David Plouffe, a top strategist on both of Obama’s presidential campaigns, joins Harris as senior adviser for strategy and the states focused on winning the electoral college. Stephanie Cutter, the deputy campaign manager for Obama’s reelection who has been working in recent months with Harris, is the new senior adviser for strategy messaging. Mitch Stewart, a grass-roots organizing strategist behind both Obama wins, will become the senior adviser for battleground states. David Binder, who led Obama’s public opinion research operation and previously worked for Harris, will expand his role on the Harris campaign to lead the opinion research operation.

All of the new hires will report to campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon, another veteran of Obama’s two campaigns. She managed Biden’s 2020 campaign and built his 2024 operation from the White House before moving to Wilmington, Del., this year. Harris took control of Biden’s campaign as soon as Biden announced he would not seek reelection, an operation consisting of more than 1,300 employees and more than 130 offices. She asked O’Malley Dillon to remain in charge.

“This team is a reflection of the vice president. It brings in people who have worked for her a long time, people who have been with her for the last few years of the administration,” O’Malley Dillon said Friday. “This team represents the vice president and how she looks at building consensus and also driving toward one united front to defeat Trump.”

The specifics of the new hires were described by campaign officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal decisions. People involved said none of the current department heads would be pushed aside. Politico was the first to report Plouffe’s new role.

Harris comes to the campaign with her own brain trust who will take on more senior roles in the campaign. Sheila Nix, her campaign chief of staff, will remain in her role, as will Sergio Gonzales, her campaign strategist, and Jalisa Washington-Price and Megan Jones, her political advisers. Brian Fallon, a veteran of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign who has been working as Harris’s communications director, will be a senior communications adviser, traveling with the candidate. Shelby Cole, Harris’s 2020 digital strategist now at the Democratic National Committee, will also play an increased role.

“With 95 days to go, Vice President Harris is building on its powerhouse team that has already delivered historic grassroots support and record-breaking fundraising,” Nix said in a statement. “These seasoned and respected leaders are a part of Vice President Harris’ steadfast commitment to grow a team that will ensure we do everything possible to win this November.”

The new structure around Harris is expected to address the bifurcated nature of the Biden campaign leadership — with a campaign team in Wilmington that effectively answered to Biden’s inner circle in Washington, which advisers said sometimes slowed decision-making. The team operating out of Delaware will now be significantly larger at the top as it make the final push to Election Day, less than 100 days away.

Biden began planning his reelection bid in September 2022, with a clutch of senior White House advisers who have taken on reduced roles in Biden’s orbit. Anita Dunn, a senior White House aide, recently announced she would leave to advise a super PAC supporting Harris. Top Biden advisers Steve Ricchetti, Mike Donilon and Bruce Reed will all have smaller roles, as will Annie Tomasini and Anthony Bernal, top advisers to Biden and his wife, Jill.

One of the biggest holes to fill is the one left by Donilon, a senior adviser to the Biden campaign who oversaw message development, advertising and polling. Quentin Fulks, the principal deputy campaign manager for Harris, will take over leadership of the campaigns advertising program with the current paid media team. The campaign is finalizing plans to bring on additional ad-makers.

In addition to increasing Binder’s role, the Harris campaign is also bringing on Terrance Woodbury of HIT Strategies, a specialist in Black voter opinion research. Other pollsters who were working for Biden will continue in their roles. Michael Tyler will continue as campaign communications director, and deputy campaign manager Rob Flaherty will continue to oversee digital advertising, social media and grass-roots fundraising.

Former Housing and Urban Development secretary Marcia L. Fudge, who recently came on board as a campaign co-chair, will expand her portfolio to include outreach and strategy. Former congressman Cedric L. Richmond will continue to be a co-chair and Harris adviser. Brian Nelson, undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence at the Treasury Department, is coming over to advise Harris on policy.

Jennifer Palmieri, a communications director in the Obama White House who played the same role for Clinton’s 2016 campaign, will be a senior adviser to Doug Emhoff, the second gentleman. Palmieri worked more recently as a co-host of the Showtime documentary series, “The Circus.”

Liz Allen, who serves as undersecretary for public diplomacy and public affairs at the State Department, will become the chief of staff to Harris’s running mate once that person is chosen in the coming days. Allen worked as Harris’s communications director when she was Biden’s running mate on the 2020 ticket. She worked for Biden when he was vice president and then served as deputy White House communications director at the end of Obama’s second term.

Julie Chavez Rodriguez, Biden’s campaign manager, will remain in her role for Harris, with an expanded portfolio focused on Arizona and Nevada, where Democrats now say they have renewed hope of defeating Trump.

Cutter, who founded political consulting firm Precision Strategies with O’Malley Dillon, has been working with the vice president for months, helping her to prepare for interviews and do media training. White House visitor records show that Cutter was cleared into the White House by the Harris team five times in the first three months of this year. She has also been overseeing the planning for the Democratic National Convention in Chicago later this month, reprising a role she played in 2020.

Cutter was previously a deputy campaign manager for Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign, a deputy White House senior adviser to Obama, a former chief of staff to then-first lady Michelle Obama, and the communications director for John F. Kerry’s 2004 campaign, along with other roles, including a period as a host of the now-defunct CNN show “Crossfire.”

Plouffe also has a long relationship with the campaign. He advised the Biden campaign informally in 2022 when the campaign was first being put together. More recently, he has hosted a podcast about the 2024 race with Kellyanne Conway, a former adviser to Donald Trump who served as his 2016 campaign manager.

Plouffe is expected to end his consulting arrangement with the social media platform TikTok before joining the campaign.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

The U.S. military is repositioning assets and moving additional defensive capabilities into the Middle East to defend against a potential attack on Israel by Iran, U.S. officials said.

The moves come after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, and Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah vowed to retaliate after the killing this week of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and a senior Hezbollah commander, Fuad Shukr.

Haniyeh was assassinated in a brazen attack at a residence in Tehran secured by the country’s vaunted Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Israel has not claimed responsibility, but U.S. officials privately acknowledge it was behind the killing. Washington was not apprised of the operation beforehand and had no role in it, officials have said.

Shukr was killed in an Israeli airstrike in a Beirut suburb in retaliation for an attack last weekend in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights that killed several children while they played on a soccer field.

The events have brought the region closer to full-blown conflict than perhaps at any point since the Gaza war began 10 months ago with a bloody cross-border attack by Hamas.

Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and a group of militias in Iraq and Syria all receive weapons and training from Iran, part of a vast anti-Israel, anti-U.S. network Tehran has supported for years.

U.S. officials have revealed little about how they are preparing for the possibility of an attack, but the White House said Thursday night that President Biden had spoken to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and affirmed his commitment to Israeli security “against all threats from Iran, including its proxy terrorist groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.”

“The President discussed efforts to support Israel’s defense against threats, including against ballistic missiles and drones, to include new defensive U.S. military deployments,” said a brief statement summarizing the two leaders’ call.

U.S. officials at both the Pentagon and White House declined to elaborate on what those defensive deployments entail, but the U.S. military has a broad array of aircraft, ballistic missile defenses and warships in the region.

On Friday, a U.S. official familiar with the situation, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss military movements, said that the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and at least five other warships had relocated in the past two days from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, leaving them off Iran’s shores but moving in the direction of Israel if they sail west around Yemen toward the Red Sea.

Houthi militants in Yemen in recent months have launched numerous attacks on commercial vessels that use the vital shipping route, and on Israel itself, including a deadly drone attack that sneaked past Israeli air defenses and struck a building in Tel Aviv last month. Israel responded with airstrikes on the Yemeni port of Hodeidah.

The recent bloodshed follows a sprawling drone and missile attack by Iran on Israel in April in which the U.S. military intervened, taking down numerous drones and missiles as Israeli forces intercepted others. Iran launched that attack after an Israeli airstrike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria killed two Iranian generals and other Iranian military personnel.

The rising tensions raise the prospect that the Pentagon could respond again in similar fashion.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with Biden after the president’s commitment to Netanyahu and will be ordering several moves in coming days, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said Friday. Austin said the same to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Friday morning, she said.

Among the options available are fighter jets aboard the Theodore Roosevelt, and the naval destroyers nearby, including the USS Daniel Inouye, USS Russell, USS Cole, USS Laboon and USS Michael Murphy. The destroyer USS John S. McCain is also in the region, remaining in the Persian Gulf as the other American warships have moved, said the U.S. official familiar with the repositioning.

Five other U.S. warships are in the eastern Mediterranean Sea and could assist Israel if called upon. They include the USS Wasp, USS Oak Hill, USS New York, USS Bulkeley and USS Roosevelt.

The Bulkeley and the Roosevelt are destroyers with offensive and defensive ballistic missile capabilities, while the other three form the Wasp Amphibious Ready Group, a three-ship team of more than 4,000 U.S. Marines and sailors that includes Marine Corps fighter jets, an infantry battalion and other combat forces from the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit.

The Pentagon also could reposition Air Force fighter jets closer to Israel to assist. In April, two F-15 fighter squadrons deployed nearby from the United States and Britain, shooting down numerous drones. Those movements were not disclosed in advance.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

The U.S. Secret Service did not see warnings from local police about the gunman at former president Donald Trump’s campaign rally last month in part because they were stationed in separate command centers that hurt communication, the agency’s acting director said Friday.

Ronald Rowe Jr. said the agency takes full responsibility for the security failure at the rally in Butler, Pa., on July 13, and he pledged to make changes that could require new investments in personnel and equipment.

He vowed to hold officers accountable if an internal investigation concludes that they violated agency policies. The Secret Service’s probe is separate from the criminal investigation being led by the FBI.

“This was a mission failure. … I am working to make sure this failure never happens again,” Rowe said at a news conference Friday afternoon at the agency’s Washington headquarters. He called the assassination attempt — in which Trump was injured, one rallygoer was killed and two others were injured — a “dark day for our country.”

Rowe offered some new details about the security arrangements for the outdoor rally, saying there were no Secret Service personnel stationed in a unified command center set up by local law enforcement partners who were responsible for security outside the perimeter of the rally grounds.

Rather, the federal agency had established its own communications operation and did not access a message, moments before the shooting, from a local police officer warning of a man carrying a gun. That man was later identified as the shooter, Thomas M. Crooks, who fired multiple shots before being killed by a Secret Service countersniper.

Rowe said that the Secret Service relies on local law enforcement agencies to secure large events and that it was unusual for there to be two command centers.

There are multiple investigations seeking answers to questions about how a 20-year-old gunman managed to use an HVAC system to clamber atop an unsecured roof, traverse across multiple rooftops and then fire shots during a campaign rally.

Rowe became the agency’s acting director after Kimberly Cheatle, a veteran former agent, resigned as director last month — days after lawmakers from both parties lambasted her for not answering urgent questions about the security lapses at the rally.

Rowe testified at a joint Senate committee hearing Tuesday that he could not explain why local law enforcement had failed to spot the shooter on the roof.

He said the Butler rally was the first time the former president’s detail included a Secret Service countersniper. Local law enforcement has provided countersnipers at other rallies. He said Friday that the roof should have been secured and watched.

The FBI is leading the investigation into the shooting and has said it has not yet determined a possible motive.

The assassination attempt, the first on a U.S. leader in decades, has shaken public faith in the elite protective agency whose mission is “zero fail.” Lawmakers said Rowe provided more details, but some remained frustrated that he had not dismissed any of the agents who were directly involved.

The Secret Service said the Friday news conference was part of an effort to increase public transparency from an agency that is designed to keep a low profile.

Trump has said that he would hold more outdoor rallies and that the Secret Service has promised to expand his security.

Rowe told reporters Friday that law enforcement often flag suspicious people they spot at campaign events. At the July 13 rally, law enforcement received more than 100 calls for support, many of them about incidents related to the extreme hot weather that day. He said there were also calls about suspicious people other than Crooks.

The acting secret service director said law enforcement involved in protecting the Trump rally feel “down right now.”

“Every single person in the Secret Service,” Rowe said, “feels the weight of what happened.”

He said: “We will earn back your trust.”

Maria Sacchetti contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

A federal judge in New York on Friday finalized the dismissal of Rudy Giuliani’s bankruptcy case, opening the door for creditors to pursue and potentially seize his assets. That includes two former Georgia election workers who won a $148 million defamation claim against him.

The decision by U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Sean Lane in the Southern District of New York comes two days after Giuliani and his creditors reached an agreement to resolve an estimated $350,000 in administrative fees in the case that were required to be paid before it could be closed.

A proposed order filed Wednesday stated that upon the judge’s approval and case dismissal, Giuliani agreed to transfer $100,000 to an escrow account controlled by his attorneys and satisfy the remainder of the fees with proceeds from the sale of one of his two properties — his New York apartment or his condo in Palm Beach, Fla.

In his order finalizing the dismissal, Lane approved terms of that settlement and formally closed the case. The order prohibits Giuliani from seeking bankruptcy protection again for “a period of one year from the dismissal effective date.”

A spokesman for Giuliani did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The formal dismissal paves the way for the former election workers and other creditors to now pursue legal remedies to collect money owed to them by Giuliani, the former New York mayor. It also allows other pending lawsuits against him that had been frozen by the bankruptcy proceeding to resume, including defamation suits by the voting machine companies Dominion Voting Systems and Smartmatic, and a sexual harassment and wage theft claim by former Giuliani associate Noelle Dunphy.

All are part of a committee of “unsecured creditors” that sought relief in the bankruptcy case.

Lane’s decision comes almost seven months after Giuliani sought bankruptcy protection after he was ordered to immediately pay millions in damages to Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss, two Georgia women he falsely accused of helping to steal the 2020 presidential election while he was serving as former president Donald Trump’s personal attorney. Giuliani also faces criminal charges in Georgia and Arizona related to his alleged actions after the 2020 election.

Giuliani’s creditors accused him of using the bankruptcy case to stall litigation and collection efforts against him. The former mayor was criticized by the judge for his “uncooperative conduct” after he repeatedly filed inconsistent and incomplete financial statements that did not present a full picture of his cash and assets. Giuliani also failed to turn over financial information about his businesses and other holdings, as required by law.

“Transparency into Mr. Giuliani’s finances has proven to be an elusive goal,” Lane wrote in an order last month.

Citing suspicions that Giuliani’s stonewalling was an attempt to hide money, lawyers for the creditors hired Global Data Risk, a firm that includes former FBI and CIA officials, to look for hidden assets. They also suggested they could sue parties that Giuliani claims owe him money as part of their effort to recover debts — potentially including Trump.

In a February court hearing, Giuliani claimed Trump still owes him “about” $2 million in unpaid legal fees related to his work seeking to overturn Trump’s 2020 election loss. He has suggested that debt is with the Trump campaign or the Republican National Committee — though in a Feb. 27 court filing, Giuliani noted a possible claim against Trump personally for unpaid legal fees.

It was not immediately clear if the creditors might still pursue that litigation. Attorneys for the creditors did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

In court filings, Giuliani has listed roughly $153 million in debts to at least 20 people and businesses, including Freeman and Moss. A list of top creditors filed in February said Giuliani owes more than $3.7 million in unpaid legal fees to three law firms — though he is disputing some of those bills — and more than $1 million in state and federal taxes.

The former federal prosecutor has claimed about $11 million in assets — including an estimated $5.6 million New York apartment and his Palm Beach condo, which is valued at $3.5 million. While Giuliani has put his New York property on the market, he had resisted selling his Florida home, with one of his lawyers claiming that a sale could render the 80-year-old “homeless.” The settlement between Giuliani and his creditors suggested the Florida property could soon be for sale — though it was not yet publicly listed.

The settlement said a lien would be placed on both properties “as security” to make sure Giuliani pays fees owed to Global Data Risk and said the firm cannot seek to foreclose on or take other action related to either property for six months after the judge signs off on the agreement.

A financial disclosure report filed in June said Giuliani had less than $100,000 in the bank at the end of May and was funding his living expenses through a rapidly diminishing retirement account. But a lawyer for Freeman and Moss has repeatedly questioned the accuracy of his financial filings, accusing Giuliani of financial “shenanigans” and blowing through money without court authorization.

In recent weeks, Giuliani repeatedly shifted legal strategies in the case. In December, he sought Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, which allows an individual to reorganize and file a plan to pay off debts. But on July 1, Giuliani changed course, asking a judge to reclassify his case under Chapter 7 bankruptcy, which would hand control of his personal and business finances to an outside trustee to liquidate. The request prompted immediate objections from some creditors who accused Giuliani of more delay tactics. He then abruptly joined with Freeman and Moss who had pressed the court to dismiss the case — which Lane agreed to do on July 12.

But Lane, who had not finalized the dismissal, later threatened to reverse that decision and schedule an evidentiary hearing where he would force Giuliani to testify under oath about his finances after he claimed he couldn’t pay fees in the case. The last-minute settlement averted that testimony.

Lane’s order Friday notes he will retain jurisdiction over the matter, including the approval of final administrative costs and “all matters arising from or related to the implementation, interpretation or enforcement” of its terms.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

This week saw the major equity averages continue a confirmed pullback phase, with some of the biggest gainers in the first half of 2024 logging some major losses. Is this one of the most buyable dips of the year? Or is this just the beginning of a protracted decline with much more pain to come for investors?

Today, we’ll walk through four potential outcomes for the S&P 500 index over the next six to eight weeks. As I share each of these four future paths, I’ll describe the market conditions that would likely be involved, and I’ll also share my estimated probability for each scenario.

By the way, we conducted a similar exercise for the S&P 500 back in April, and you may be surprised to see which scenario actually played out!

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

  1. Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.
  2. Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop me a comment and let me know your vote!
  3. Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most optimistic scenario, involving the S&P 500 making yet another new all-time high as the bullish trend resumes.

Option 1: The Super Bullish Scenario

Our first scenario would mean that the brief pullback phase is now over, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq would power to new all-time highs in August. By early September, we’d be talking about the resurgence of the Magnificent 7 names, reflecting on how the markets in 2024 have diverged so much from the traditional seasonal patterns, and discussing the likelihood of the S&P finishing 2024 above the 6000 level.

Dave’s Vote: 5%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

What if the Magnificent 7 stocks take a backseat to other sectors, such as financials and industrials? If the value trade continues to work, as we’ve observed in the last couple weeks, we could see a scenario where lots of stocks are working well but it’s not enough to propel the equity benchmarks much higher. The S&P 500 wouldn’t see much downside in this scenario and would spend the next six to eight weeks between 5400 and 5650.

Dave’s vote: 15%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

How about a scenario where this pullback continues to plague the equity markets, but the pace of the decline lightens up a bit? The mega-cap growth stocks continue to struggle, but we don’t see those full risk-off signals and the VIX remains below 20. By early September, we’re down about 10% overall off the July high, but investors are licking their lips about a potential Q4 rally into year-end 2024.

Dave’s vote: 60%

Option 4: The Super Bearish Scenario

You always need to consider an incredibly bearish scenario, if only to remind yourself that it’s a possibility, even a very unlikely one! What if this pullback is just getting started, the S&P 500 fails to hold the 5000 level, and we see a break below the 200-day moving average? That would mean a similar pullback to what we experienced in August and September 2023, and while we’re talking about the potential for a Q4 rally, we’re all way more concerned that there’s even more downside to be had before it’s all said and done.

Dave’s vote: 20%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios? Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. 

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.   Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The S&P 500 index ($SPX) is a capitalization-weighted stock index. Many lesser capitalization blue-chip stocks that compose these 500 companies have been performance laggards. Though smaller companies in the index, these corporations are among the bluest of the blue-chip stocks. These prestigious corporations have been overshadowed by the immense mega-capitalization companies that have received attention from institutional and individual investors. For the most part, these other and forgotten stocks have better valuations and dividend yields as they have been somewhat neglected by Wall Street.

The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) provides a perspective highlighting these smaller blue-chip stocks in the index. Does this equal-weighted index reveal a market story obscured by the mega-cap dominated S&P 500 index?

S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), Point & Figure Chart Study

S&P 500 Equal Weighted ETF (RSP) PnF Chart Notes:

  • In 2022, an Accumulation Structure began to form.
  • Markup began in 2023 and still continues.
  • Three Horizontal PnF counts are estimated here.
  • Two partial counts confirm each other in the $186 price zone.
  • The entire width of the structure counts to $260.

NASDAQ 100 Index ($NDX) with Relative Strength to the S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP)

This daily chart of the NASDAQ 100 Index ($NDX) illustrates the start and end of the second-quarter rally. A final ThrowOver of the channel line clocks in just as the quarter is ending and the third quarter is beginning. A sudden and sharp reversal is evidence of the rotation away from this mega-cap dominated index and into the broad list of blue chip stocks in the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index. The Relative Strength line reveals the shift.

Broad market rotations can destabilize markets as funds flow away from prior leadership toward new investment themes. Watch for emerging leadership from industry groups and stocks while markets are generally correcting. Point & Figure horizontal counts can help greatly with price projection estimates. However, we must remember that PnF cannot estimate the time needed to reach potential price objectives.

All the Best,

Bruce

@rdwyckoff

Prior Blog Notes: At the end of June, I published a NASDAQ 100 PnF chart study as it was reaching price objectives. The price of the objective range was 19,600 / 20,800. On July 10th the $NDX peaked at 20,690.97, just as the new quarter was beginning. (click here to view the chart study). 

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. 

Wyckoff Resources:

Additional Wyckoff Resources (Click Here)

Wyckoff Market Discussion (Click Here)

This Fed has got to go. It’s time. You’ve overstayed your welcome, Fed Chief Powell. I literally was just shaking my head after reading the changes to the Fed’s policy statement. The changes were in the first two paragraphs, so let me jump right in and show you what changed in the wording and, essentially, what the Fed acknowledged:

Wording in red with a line through it was wording from the prior policy statement that was not in the current policy statement. Wording in red and underlined is new wording in the current policy statement. I think the most important change is the last line in the second paragraph. At the prior meeting, the statement said the FOMC “remains highly attentive to inflation risks”. That clearly showed that the Fed was much more concerned about inflation than the economy. The economy wasn’t even mentioned. But the latest statement now reads that the FOMC “is attentive to risks to both sides of its dual mandate.” The dual mandate, of course, is to maximize employment (economy) and stabilize prices (inflation). So the Fed is now acknowledging that the economy is weakening, which is EXACTLY what I’ve been saying for the past several weeks. We dedicated an event last Saturday to this exact topic to warn our members of the deteriorating economy and what that could mean for the S&P 500.

It’s not pretty.

In order to avoid recession, the Fed needs to act and cut rates. But no, no, no, not this Fed. They’re still looking for a “sustainable” path to its 2% target on inflation, as if this chart doesn’t CLEARLY show a sustainable path:

I’ve been in the camp of a soft landing. Now I’ve decided I don’t like camping. I also don’t like this Fed, if you couldn’t tell. Not only did the Fed leave rates unchanged and fail to give us all a sense of security that rates will drop in September, but it was a UNANIMOUS decision. They’re all going along for this ride with the Fed Chief of Sustainability Powell.

Powell is in the business of creating pain for investors globally. His infamous speech from the stage in Jackson Hole in 2022 completely derailed a massive 700 point-rally in the S&P 500 over the prior 9-10 weeks. This isn’t new.

Do you know how many trillions and trillions of dollars trade every day in the U.S. bond and stock markets? There are BRILLIANT economists in the world’s largest financial firms and all of this money has been SCREAMING at the Fed to cut rates. But they have their own agenda and are the LEAST transparent Fed that I’ve ever seen. Would you like to see some immediate fallout from the Fed paying ZERO attention to the stock and bond markets?

How about this 5-day chart on the IWM (small cap Russell 2000 ETF):

Wednesday 3pm: The moment that Wall Street realized that all its hopes and dreams of a rate cut were crushed and that our economy is as good as gone. Soft landing? Very, very doubtful. The good news is that Christmas specials should be great this year as companies try to get rid themselves of massive inventories.

Listen, it’s not too late to get the recording from last week’s “Why The S&P 500 May Tumble”. It may turn out to be the most important video you watch this year. A FREE 30-day trial membership will do the trick. I laid out the path for the S&P 500 and key growth areas. The only thing I’d change, 5 days later, is the title. A more appropriate title would be “Why The S&P 500 Will Tumble”.

Also, I just recorded a YouTube video last night, “Fed Makes Wrong Move AGAIN!”. Be sure to “Like” the video and “Subscribe” to our YouTube Channel. I appreciate your support!

Sleep well Powell.

Happy trading!

Tom

In July alone, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF jumped upwards of 12%, outpacing the S&P 500, before retracing half that distance. Historically, the Russell (in general) hasn’t done as well as other major indexes, mainly because it doesn’t have the same exposure to fast-growing tech companies. However, that lack of exposure is driving its surge, as investors may be rotating out of tech and into small caps.

What this might indicate: The small cap surge signals a shift in market sentiment, with investors eyeing opportunities beyond the tech sector.

The Macro View

Let’s take a look at the chart below: iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM).

CHART 1. WEEKLY CHART OF IWM. The Russell 2000 proxy is recovering from a decline and a lengthy trading range.

IWM was in a bear market from the end of 2021 to the middle of 2022 (see blue dotted line), losing 31% of its value from its all-time high of $235.46. It then got caught in a broad trading range (see green rectangle), finally breaking out at the beginning of 2024. 

Despite its impressive rise, IWM must break past $235.46 and keep climbing to confirm a new small-cap bull market. 

So, are we at the start of a new bull market for small caps? 

If so, IWM is only 8% away from that mark.

But … Why IWM, and Why Now?

The Russell 2000 is more balanced and diversified than the S&P 500. Its largest stock holding makes up only 1.7% of the index (meaning less concentration risk). Also, IWM trades at a P/E of 16.9, which is cheaper than the S&P’s 24.3 ratio.

Why now? Falling interest rates typically create a favorable economic environment for small caps. Overall, small-cap stocks tend to shine in periods of economic recovery and when interest rates are favorable. 

Depending on your perspective on the economy over the last few years, there are either potential rate cuts on the horizon or both an awful economy and potential rate cuts soon.

Key Levels to Watch

Thursday was a particularly bad day on Wall Street, with the Dow plunging 700 points, the S&P 500 down 1.9%, and the Nasdaq and Russell, losing over 3%. 

Following the broader market, you can see the IWM tumble in the chart below.

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF IWM. Wow, look at that tumble.

If IWM is to challenge its all-time high of $235.46 and proclaim a new bull market, it doesn’t look like it has enough momentum to do so, as the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) shows … well … no convincing money flow either from the bull or bear side. 

The StockChartsTechnicalRank (SCTR) score looks promising, jumping above 90 again (indicating several technical indicators are bullish across multiple timeframes). However, with the broader market being bearish on this day, IWM is feeling the pressure.

The key level to keep an eye on is around $205. High volume concentration (look at the Volume-by-Price indicator) coincides with the projected Kumo support level and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, making it a strong range of interest and potential buying. And if IWM falls below this level, you have down to $187.50—where the 61.8% Fib retracement and the January lowest swing low of the year happen to meet—to find favorable buying opportunities. Keep an eye on momentum; the more bullish, the more favorable.

Closing Bell

Small caps look to be making a comeback. IWM needs to break $235.46 to confirm a new bull market, and it’s just 8% away. Investors may be rotating out of tech stocks and into small caps, drawn by lower P/E ratios and other diversification benefits. If you want to get in on the action, keep an eye on key levels around $205 and $197.50 for buying opportunities. Market sentiment may shift big time as the likelihood of rate cuts looks more promising.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Far-right demonstrations turned violent for a second night across England Wednesday, in the wake of this week’s mass stabbing in Southport – the worst attack on children in the country in recent history.

While a community continues to grieve the murder of three young girls, far-right agitators have mobilized around online misinformation and hateful, anti-migrant and anti-Muslim narratives – fueling disorder in London, Manchester and the northeastern town of Hartlepool.

Chaotic scenes unfolded in the capital on Wednesday night, with protesters from the “Enough is Enough” demonstration throwing bottles and cans at police, and hurling flares toward the gates of Downing Street while chanting far-right, anti-Islam slogans, including, “We want our country back.”

In Manchester, demonstrators wearing balaclavas gathered outside a hotel that houses asylum seekers, and in Hartlepool, police cars were set ablaze by a mob who carried sticks and pelted officers with objects.

More than 100 people in London were arrested for “violent disorder” and an “assault on an emergency worker,” according to the city’s Metropolitan Police. There were two arrests in Manchester, and eight in Hartlepool, according to police there.

The violence follows Tuesday’s night of unrest in the northwest English town of Southport, where a group of far-right protesters hurled bricks at a mosque, set cars and police vehicles on fire and clashed with police barely an hour after a peaceful vigil for Bebe King (6), Elsie Dot Stancombe (7) and Alice Dasilva Aguiar (9) was held across town.

Eight other children suffered stab wounds in the attack and five of them are in critical condition. Two adults also remain in critical condition after being injured in the attack, police said.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned the scenes, saying the protesters “hijacked” the community’s grief.

Met police superintendent Neil Holyoak said that while “it is understandable the public have strong feelings” about the Southport stabbings, “the subsequent violent, unlawful disorder that unfolded was completely unacceptable and driven by misinformation.”

Shortly after Monday’s attack, far-right groups began to circulate a false name for the alleged attacker across social media, and falsely claimed that he was an asylum seeker.

The suspect is a 17-year-old from Banks, Lancashire. He was born in Cardiff, Wales, according to police.

Axel Rudakubana, who was charged with three counts of murder and 10 counts of attempted murder, was named on Thursday after a judge lifted reporting restrictions.

Less than 24 hours after the attack, however, before the suspect’s name had been released, the false name had already received over 30,000 mentions from more than 18,000 unique accounts on X alone – and was amplified by prominent far-right leaders, according to the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD).

That false name had been also recommended to users through X’s algorithm, and was trending as a top recommended search result for users under the “What’s happening” sidebar.

“White nationalists will seize on any opportunity to spread misinformation about Muslims, about anyone who’s not White. So they were immediately on it – and were happy to spread basically whatever would confirm their presuppositions about who had done it,” he said.

Whether it was a malicious actor, or whether it was someone who was looking for “clicks,” is unclear, Squirrell added. “But we do know that the name that they gave out was made up… and that all the details are completely made up.”

Squirrell pointed to the fact that the viral posts about the alleged attacker said that he was on a watch list for MI6, Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service. However, MI5 – MI6’s internal counterpart – is the organization responsible for fighting domestic terrorism. “They gave out details that were basically designed to pick up the attention of the far-right, and also for anyone who is concerned about migration,” he said.

Algorithms tend to favor emotive, sensationalist, outrageous, engaging content – because they are based on engagement.

“Things that people on the far-right – or people who are interested in peddling misinformation as a way of getting engagement – tend to post things that will appeal to the algorithm,” Squirrell said. He added that, while the algorithm played a part, there was also a “huge amount of organizing happening” in a variety of different places that are not algorithmically oriented – for example in far-right groups on the instant-messaging platform Telegram.

Such Telegram groups have been instrumental in organizing these demonstrations.

Hope Not Hate, a UK advocacy group that campaigns against racism and fascism, identified one of the first Telegram groups that appeared on the encrypted social media network just hours after the Southport stabbings.

Like what was being shared on X and other platforms, the Telegram group “Southport Wake Up,” also posted false information about the alleged suspect. Hours after the attack, the group’s creator sent out the details for the first protest: Meet near a Southport mosque on Tuesday.

It was there that the violence began.

The “Southport Wake Up” group is still active, and on Thursday, posted calls for similar disruptions at Muslim centers in other cities across England.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Starmer was set to meet with senior police leaders in London on Thursday.

In a statement, Downing Street said: “While the right to peaceful protest must be protected at all costs, he will be clear that criminals who exploit that right in order to sow hatred and carry out violent acts will face the full force of the law.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com