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The broad market and the group are big drivers for stock performance. Recently, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) led the market lower with sizable declines over the last five weeks. Weakness in QQQ weighed on tech stocks and tech-related industry groups, such as semis, software and cybersecurity. The PerfChart below shows QQQ down 4.62% since July 1st, SPY down a fraction and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) up 7.67%.

QQQ is in the midst of a pullback within a long-term uptrend. Chartists looking for opportunities in tech stocks and tech-related groups should wait for an oversold condition in the Nasdaq 100, which we are doing at TrendInvestorPro. We can identify oversold conditions using price oscillators and breadth indicators. I prefer breadth indicators because they aggregate performance for the average stock within the index.

The chart below shows QQQ with the Nasdaq 100 %Above 50-day SMA indicator in the lower window. First and foremost, QQQ hit a new high in July and remains well above the rising 200-day SMA. Thus, the long-term trend is up. This means the current pullback is a correction within this bigger uptrend.

NDX %Above 20-day SMA is a breadth oscillator that becomes oversold with a move below 10% (green shading). This means more than 90% of Nasdaq 100 stocks are below their 20-day SMAs. This is an oversold extreme that can pave the way for a bounce or breakout. It is important to wait for some sort of upside catalyst because stocks can become oversold and remain oversold. The blue arrow-lines show when this indicator surges above 70% (after becoming oversold). This shows a big increase in upside participation and acts as a bullish signal.

NDX %Above 20-day SMA has yet to become oversold and this means the correction in QQQ and tech stocks could continue. We are monitoring Nasdaq 100 breadth using an indicator that aggregates signals in seven short-term breadth indicators. The last oversold reading was in mid April and it has yet to become oversold. Click here to learn more.

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And then ….. all of a sudden….. things are heating up. Lots of (downside) market action in the past week.

Let’s see what sector rotation and RRGs can tell us.

The RRG at the top is a daily RRG, as recent price action has significantly impacted near-term rotations.

The main takeaway is the concentrated risk-off rotation, with Technology and Consumer Discretionary rotating into the lagging quadrant. To offset the nose-dives in these two sectors, many others came floating to the surface on a relative basis.

Utes Lead, Tech Lags

Looking at the price performance over the last five days (snapshot Friday, 8/2, 1:30 pm ET), we see the defensive sectors rising to the top of the table, while the more offensive sectors are found at the bottom. Investors are flocking to the safe havens of Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Healthcare. The odd ones are Real Estate and Communication services (META is certainly helping here).

The real damage for the cap-weighted S&P 500 comes from Consumer Discretionary and Technology.

Equal Weight Sectors Paint a More Realistic Picture

The RRG showing the equivalent equal-weight sectors paints a pretty clear picture. Three sectors are shooting deeper into the lagging quadrant: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology. Utilities and Healthcare are making the opposite move into leading. The remaining sectors are mixed around the 100 level on the JdK RS-Momentum scale.

This paints a more realistic picture at the sector level, which is less impacted by mega-cap stocks, but it confirms the rotation we also see in the cap-weighted sectors. RISK OFF.

Is the BIG ROTATION Over?

For a few weeks, it was all about the “BIG ROTATION,” the move from large caps into small caps.

I discussed this two weeks ago in this video for StockChartsTV and asked whether that market segment would be big and strong enough to prevent the S&P 500 from falling.

At that time, the rotation was clearly visible, and SPY was holding up above support near 550, so there was no massive “outflow” of money from the S&P 500.

When the market moves lower, by definition, money is flowing out of it. When the market moves higher, new money is put into stocks. When (sector) rotation takes place while the market remains stable, the money is moved around between sectors.

At first, investors pulled their money from mega-cap and large-cap stocks and moved it to other sectors and segments (small caps). But now, money is actually leaving the market.

Interestingly, more money leaving the market seems to come from the small-cap segment.

Large and Small Both Go Down, but At a Different Pace

The RRG shows the ratios between cap-weighted large-cap sectors and cap-weighted small-cap sectors. It uses $ONE as the benchmark to visualize the movement between large- and small-cap sectors.

All tails are on the left-hand side of the graph, indicating that these ratios are in downtrends, meaning large caps are underperforming small caps. But the improvement over the last five days is rapidly becoming visible. All these tails are curling back up, indicating that the downtrends (meaning a preference for small caps over large caps) are starting to level off and improving.

The chart above shows this ratio for XLK:PSCT in combination with an RSI(9). The sharp move lower from the 4.979 peak has come to rest near the developing support line around the levels of the previous lows while the RSI is executing a positive divergence.

Pretty much all of these ratios are showing similar charts.

Hence, on a relative basis, large-cap stocks seem to be making a comeback, but only because they are dropping less fast than the small-caps.

In reality, small-cap technology stocks are dropping like a stone.

And so are large-cap technology stocks, only a little less.

When you are a long-only investor with a capital preservation benchmark, don’t be fooled by RRG tails that are turning upward or rotating into the leading quadrant.

Where it all comes together.

This chart was snapped Friday, 8/2, at 2:30 p.m. ET. The bounce from wherever it will come is very likely to give us more clues about the near future. I would not be surprised to see some “Wham Bam, Thank You, Ma’am” short covering, taking the market a little up from its lows.

What happens from there will be our guide going into next week.

The area between 533 and 537.50 will likely start to serve as overhead resistance, while the way down is now open to the 517.50-520 area.

#StayAlert and have a great weekend. –Julius

The dog days of summer are here. And the stock market gives us a brutal reminder of this.

The first trading day of August began on a very pessimistic note. Thursday’s weak manufacturing data spooked the stock market. All broad stock market indexes, including the S&P 600 Small-Cap Index ($SML) and the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index ($MID), fell sharply after the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) came in at 46.8 (below 50 indicates contraction). 

Friday was even worse after the July jobs report data was well below expectations. The broader indexes continued their slide with the charts of the broader equity indexes ending the week with technical breakdowns. But in the recent past, hasn’t the stock market rejoiced when a softer jobs number was released?

It’s Different This Time

Thursday’s quick shift from green to red shows how this market can shift on a dime. On Wednesday, investors were optimistic about a rate cut in September after hearing Fed Chairman Powell’s comments after the FOMC meeting. Maybe those comments were fresh in everyone’s minds because the following day, investor sentiment shifted drastically. 

After the PMI data came out, concern grew that perhaps the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged in the July meeting may not have been a smart decision. A September rate cut may be too late.

Friday’s weaker-than-expected employment report didn’t help. It magnified the fear and accelerated the selloff in equities. If you dig deeper into the report, it’s enough to create some fear. If the labor force participation rate is rising, as is evident in the July NFP, but there aren’t enough jobs to hire the additional job seekers, unemployment will rise. 

The fear has now shifted from a soft landing to a possible recession. That the Fed hasn’t cut interest rates yet is maybe enough reason for investors to wrap up for the rest of the summer months and reset in September. 

Two bad reports like the ones we just got tend to set off red flags. Stocks got slammed across the board—large caps, mid-caps, small caps, tech stocks, and industrials—all underwent significant drops. Another shift can be seen in the CME FedWatch Tool. Since the July NFP report, there’s a 73.5% chance of a 50 basis-points rate cut in September. 

Sentiment Shift 

So, how bad was the technical damage? The weekly chart of the S&P 500 ($SPX) shows it tested its 20-week simple moving average (SMA) support and closed slightly above it. So, from a longer-term perspective, the damage isn’t as deteriorating as your portfolio or daily chart may suggest. 

CHART 1. WEEKLY CHART OF S&P 500 INDEX. The index tested its 20-week moving average. Will it hold? That’s something to watch next week. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The daily chart tells another story. If there were one word to describe the action in the daily chart below, it would be “wipeout.” Well, maybe it’s not that bad.

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 500 INDEX. The index has broken below the trendline from the October lows but is now at its 100-day simple moving average support. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The S&P 500 has broken below its upward trendline from the October lows and is now testing its 100-day SMA support. The market breadth indicators in the lower panels aren’t showing too much weakening, but it’s something to watch for. 

If the S&P 500 continues its downward move into next week, it could challenge the April lows before returning to firm ground. That would be about a 13% decline in value, which could be a healthy correction. That can be painful to deal with in an overextended market. 

The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) was hit even harder than the S&P 500. In the Nasdaq’s weekly chart, you can see the index is at the support of its 25-week SMA and also hit the support of its March 18 high.

CHART 3. WEEKLY CHART OF NASDAQ COMPOSITE. Keep an eye on some key support levels. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The daily chart below suggests that the index is likely to reach its April lows—almost a 20% move from the high. If tech company earnings follow the trend of either weak guidance or lower-than-expected earnings reports, the Nasdaq could take a deeper dive.

CHART 4. NASDAQ COMPOSITE ALMOST AT A 61.8% FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT. The tech selloff could continue, so keep an eye on the next support levels. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Bonds Step Up

If investors are pulling money out of stocks, where is the money going? Could it be bonds? Maybe. Bonds were one of the bright spots on Thursday. The weekly chart of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) below shows that bonds broke out on strong momentum on Friday. If you’re sitting on some cash, it may be time to allocate a portion of your portfolio to bonds.

CHART 5. WEEKLY CHART OF TLT. Bond prices have broken out to the upside. This could be the time to pay attention to bonds. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

As the stock market indexes dropped, the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) spiked. On Friday, the VIX almost hit 30 but closed below the high. Talk about a panic rise!

Closing Position

Overall, August started badly. This is a difficult market for long-term investors. Should you wait it out or sell your long equity positions and park some of your cash in bonds? It’s best not to focus on all the noise and stop worrying about the day-to-day moves. But you should still monitor important support and resistance levels.

Another point to remember is that we’re amid a seasonally weak period, which tends to be more pronounced during an election year. Let’s hope we’ll get out of this in September without too much damage and perhaps a 50 basis point rate cut.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 closed down 2.06% for the week, at 5346.56, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 2.10% for the week at 39,737.26; Nasdaq Composite closed down 3.35% for the week at 16776.16
  • $VIX up 42.71% for the week closing at 23.39
  • Best performing sector for the week: Utilities
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Technology
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Carvana Co. (CVNA); Insmed Inc. (INSM); MicroStrategy, Inc. (MSTR); Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY); Ryan Specialty Group Holdings, Inc. (RYAN).

On the Radar Next Week

  • July ISM Services PMI
  • August 30-Year Mortgage Rates
  • June Consumer Credit Change
  • July Manufacturing PMI
  • Fed speeches from Daly and Barkin
  • Earnings from Lucid Group (LCID), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD), Palantir Technologies, Inc. (PLTR), and many more.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Famine has officially been declared in at least one refugee camp sheltering hundreds of thousands of people in the Darfur region of Sudan, food security organizations announced, a stark warning of the cost being paid by the population after 15 months of civil war.

Famine has been ongoing in the Zanzam camp near the city of El Fasher since June, according to the United Nations-backed Famine Review Committee (FRC). The camp’s population has swollen to around half a million people since the onset of the current conflict.

Official declarations of famine are exceedingly rare. The FRC’s conclusion is only its third since the monitoring system was set up 20 years ago, and its first in more than 7 years. Declarations are often issued as a clarion call to unlock more money from the international community to prevent further deaths.

Although the finding is limited to the Zanzam camp, the report warned that “many other areas throughout Sudan remain at risk of famine as long as the conflict and limited humanitarian access continue.”

El Fasher, the capital of Sudan’s North Darfur state, has for months been besieged by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a rebel group that took up arms against the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in April 2023. The conflict has laid waste to much of the country’s capital, Khartoum, and has since swept across other regions.

The war has transformed Sudan into what the UN has called “one of the worst humanitarian disasters in recent memory.” More than 10 million people are internally displaced in the country, with more than 25 million people facing acute hunger.

Although Thursday’s report mark the first official declaration of famine, the World Food Programme (WFP) warned in May that people in Darfur had been forced to eat grass and peanut shells as the region was wracked by hunger.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), which the FRC reports to, defines famine as “an extreme deprivation of food,” likely leading to starvation, death, destitution and extremely acute levels of malnutrition. A famine is declared if two adults or four children for every 10,000 people die each day due to outright starvation, or a combination of malnutrition and disease.

The last time the FRC declared a famine was in 2017, when 80,000 people in South Sudan faced famine conditions in parts of Unity State after three years of civil war. The only other declaration came in 2011, when nearly half a million people in Somalia experienced famine due to conflict, droughts and poor rain.

In Sudan, once considered a regional breadbasket, the FRC stressed that the main driver of the famine was not weather, but “conflict and lack of humanitarian access, both of which can immediately be rectified with the necessary political will.”

Another monitoring group, FEWS NET, the UN-backed Famine Early Warning Systems Network, also issued a famine declaration Thursday. Although this was also limited to the Zanzam camp, it warned famine could spread across the rest of El Fasher, which is home to an additional estimated 800,000 people.

Both groups warned the famine at Zanzam is likely to last at least until October and potentially much longer. To prevent this, the FRC urged the warring parties to “ensure the full delivery of services to mitigate the likelihood and severity of famine.”

“As the conflict is the predominant factor driving this famine, all means to reduce or resolve the underlying conflict between the parties involved in Sudan should be exhaustively explored,” it said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The children of two Russian intelligence agents, who were among the detainees released as part of a historic prisoner swap, only discovered their nationality when they were being flown to Moscow, the Kremlin said Friday.

Their parents, Artem Dultsev and Anna Dultseva, were among 24 prisoners swapped as part of a complex, multi-country deal that saw high-profile American detainees and Russian dissidents freed in return.

The pair had been posing as an Argentine couple in Slovenia where they were convicted of spying. Their two children flew back with them on Thursday from Turkey.

The boy and girl “found out that they were Russian only when the plane took off from Ankara,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists.

Russian President Vladimir Putin greeted them on the tarmac in Spanish as they didn’t speak Russian and didn’t even know who Putin was, according to Peskov.

“When the children came down the plane’s steps – they don’t speak Russian – and Putin greeted them in Spanish, he said ‘Buenas noches,’” Peskov said. “They asked their parents yesterday who it was that was meeting them, they didn’t even know who Putin was.”

After coming down the plane’s stairs, Dultseva, holding her tears, hugged Putin, who was standing on the red carpet rolled on the tarmac holding bouquets of flowers. Putin kissed Dultseva on the cheek and shoulder, and gave her and her daughter bouquets.

Putin briefly hugged Dultsev too and then the rest of the released Russians, before the group walked together on the red carpet away from the plane.

Thursday’s massive swap was the result of years of complicated behind-the-scenes negotiations involving the US, Russia, Belarus and Germany, ultimately leading Berlin to agree to Moscow’s key demand – releasing convicted Russian assassin Vadim Krasikov.

A total of eight people, including Krasikov, were swapped back to Russia in exchange for the release of 16 people who were held in Russian detention, including former US Marine Paul Whelan, Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and two other Americans.

Dultsev and Dultseva pleaded guilty to espionage in a court in Ljubljana on Wednesday and were sentenced to serve time in prison.

While living undercover in Slovenia, Dultsev posed as an IT businessman named Ludvig Gisch. After pleading guilty, he was sentenced to more than a year and a half in prison, which the court said was equivalent to time spent. He was set to be deported to Russia and was banned from entering Slovenia for five years.

Dultseva posed as an art dealer and gallery owner and went by the name Maria Rosa Mayer Munos. She was also set to be deported.

During the call with journalists, Peskov also revealed some additional details of prisoner exchange negotiations between Russia and the United States, saying that they were primarily conducted through the FSB and the CIA.

When asked about other Russians detained abroad, Peskov said that “the fate of all our Russians who are held in custody abroad, in the United States, is a matter of constant concern for all our relevant agencies, which will continue the relevant work.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The pounding of sustained gunfire and artillery had rattled Khin Swe’s home in northeastern Myanmar for days, with shelling getting ever closer until it was impossible for her to remain.

“There was nothing we could do to be safe, except to run,” said the 28-year-old online sales rep.

Like many of the residents of Lashio, a major town of about 170,000 people nestled in the mountains of northern Shan state, Khin Swe packed what she could and fled.

Images published by local media in the past few weeks show a mass exodus from the town, with a long line of cars, trucks and bikes laden with belongings snaking through muddy, monsoon-lashed roads.

Since late June, a powerful ethnic rebel army and its allied resistance forces have mounted a renewed offensive to capture Lashio. The strategic garrison town, the largest in Shan state, is the seat of the junta’s regional Northeastern Military Command and the center of its power base in Myanmar’s northeast and areas near the Chinese border, with about 40 battalions under its command.

Myanmar has spiraled into a devastating civil conflict since the junta’s 2021 coup was overwhelmingly spurned by the people, as the military wages a ruthless war against a nationwide armed resistance determined to oust it from power.

On July 25, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), a rebel force of the ethnic Chinese Kokang minority, announced it had “won a decisive victory” against the junta and declared Lashio “fully liberated” following a 23-day operation.

If confirmed, the capture of Lashio would be the biggest victory for the resistance since the coup and mark a turning point in the three-year civil war that has been characterized by increasingly brutal attacks against civilians by junta soldiers and warplanes, and the mass displacement of more than 3 million people.

Junta spokesperson Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun has repeatedly denied that the town and the regional command has been captured, calling the claims “propaganda.” The junta said the rebel group has “devastated civilians’ areas [rather] than military strategic holds.”

Video and images posted to social media and on the MDNAA’s accounts in recent days appeared to show their troops in central Lashio, including at the railway station, prison and a broadcast station, and within hundreds of meters of core military infrastructure.

Analysts say the situation remains fluid and while the rebel group is quickly moving through the town, capturing several battalions especially to the south of the city, fighting is ongoing.

“That sort of position in the very middle of Lashio certainly points toward significant gains within the city,” said Nathan Ruser, an analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, who has been mapping positions of the resistance in Lashio.

For Lashio to fall, “it basically eliminates the junta as an effective organized force from a huge part of the country,” Ruser said. “And for it to appear to be happening after only about a month of clashes shows how much the capabilities of the junta have declined in the last year especially.”

Caught in the crossfire

Khin Swe said Lashio’s residents were used to the sounds of fighting nearby but not within the city itself.

“Artillery shelling was fired constantly at night over the town. With our phones in our hands to keep updated with the news, we all sat anxiously. Some nights, I didn’t dare to sleep as shells roared overhead. At some point I fell asleep and was woken up by the sound of the loud artillery again,” she said. “It was the scariest moment I have ever experienced in my life.”

Khin Swe, whose home was close to the base, described how shelling started near her part of town but had grown in intensity in other areas as the military’s soldiers exchanged fire with the rebels.

She escaped to Myanmar’s second-biggest city Mandalay, a six-hour drive away in normal conditions. Bus fares leaving the city had skyrocketed, she said, as droves of people tried to flee.

Some of her family members decided to stay in Lashio to protect their homes and businesses. Before phone lines got cut off, Khin Swe said her relatives “saw Kokang troops move into the town and position themselves in empty buildings, while they urged the people to leave.”

“I am sure my home has been wrecked, but we can’t reach out to people who are left in the town because the phone connection is cut off,” she said. “My friend who had stayed in the town until very recently told me that most of the houses have been damaged.”

Being among many people displaced by war in Mandalay, Khin Swe said she and her family “are barely surviving.”

“The displacement shelters are full up with the entire population of Lashio town, some of us are struggling to find a place to live. Besides, we don’t have food to eat either,” she said. “Our family could not take some valuable items other than some money, and now we are living with more than 30 people in a place we rented.”

Other Lashio residents caught in the crossfire have written desperate messages for help on local community and neighborhood Facebook groups.

“There are children and elderly being caught in a high school amid crossfire in Lashio, they have not eaten the whole day, I don’t know how to help,” one social media user posted.

“We are a group of three girls with a 70-year-old grandma, we want to leave the town either for Taunggyi or Mandalay, but we are struggling with how,” another resident posted, leaving her phone number.

The fighting, which has extended across Shan state and the neighboring Mandalay region has forced thousands of civilians to flee – many of them multiple times – often to towns and villages also facing a barrage of junta airstrikes and shelling.

The deteriorating humanitarian crisis is being exacerbated by a lack of food and aid, with local community networks risking their lives to reach those in need.

Coordination of anti-coup resistance

Rebels have reportedly seized dozens of junta bases and several northern towns since a renewed offensive in late June by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, a trio of ethnic armed groups fighting alongside the People’s Defence Force (PDF), the armed wing of the national unity government in exile.

The gains for the rebel alliance – made up of the MNDAA, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army – followed the collapse of a Chinese-brokered ceasefire, according to local media and resistance groups.

Last week, the TNLA said it had captured another strategic town in the Mandalay region – Mogok, the center of Myanmar’s lucrative gem mining industry.

Analysts say resistance forces now control many of the roads to Lashio and other key towns in the northeast, preventing the military from resupplying soldiers in its peripheral outposts.

“They’re unable to push forces up because all the roads are controlled by the opposition, so they have a hard time sending reinforcements,” said Miemie Winn Byrd, a retired US Army Lt. Col. and professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies.

Since October, the military has been weakened by a series of territorial losses, troop defections, desertions and loss of manpower. Endemic corruption and poor command within its ranks mean the junta leadership may not have a clear idea of the situation on the ground across the country, including in Lashio, analysts say.

“Because of the corruption, Naypyidaw does not know how many forces it has… they have had a lot of desertions and defections that are going unreported,” Byrd said. “I’m not sure (junta chief) Min Aung Hlaing knows that that city has fallen into the hands of the opposition. I’m not sure his people are telling him that.”

In a recent address, junta spokesperson Zaw Min Tun appeared to counter claims of a weakened military, which he referred to by its local name, the Tatmadaw.

“As long as Myanmar exists, the Tatmadaw will exist. As long as we exist, Myanmar will live even stronger because we will safeguard your lives and your properties. Therefore, you all must work hand in hand to defend your country,” he said.

The anti-coup resistance in Myanmar was once considered a loose grouping of ill-equipped fighters, but recent successes, including the MNDAA’s push into Lashio, has shown a new level of coordination and capability, according to analysts.

“This phase of Operation 1027 has really shown a new level of interoperability and coordination between the ethnic resistance organizations and the political PDF resistance,” said Ruser, referring to the Three Brotherhood Alliance’s name for its ongoing offensive.

“Given the sort of snowballing gains by the resistance, and especially the Three Brotherhood Alliance over the last six to eight months, they’re now a really equipped force. They have artillery, they have plenty of drones, they have all sorts of capabilities that now allow them to really strike apart at qualified and static positions.”

For Khin Swe, the fighting in Lashio has left people divided.

“Chinese people in the town and young people who are in support of revolution are largely in favor of the Kokang group while the older generation, who don’t want war, blame the Kokang for their territorial invasion [and] are in support of the military,” she said.

Khin Swe said she is “saddened to see the destruction” in her hometown but she supports the “revolutionary groups defeating the junta.”

“I am happy and sad at the same time because I don’t know how we will rebuild our home. But the news of Lashio being captured gives us hope that one day in the near future we can go back home,” she said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The statement that upended Venezuela came 24 hours after polls closed in the presidential election.

With the reassuring tone of someone who has consistently been considered an underdog, opposition powerhouse Maria Corina Machado announced that her coalition had gathered more than two-thirds of vote tally sheets from polling centers nationwide, and that they show President Nicolás Maduro had lost his reelection bid.

The tally sheets known as actas — printouts measuring several feet that resemble shopping receipts — have long been considered the ultimate proof of election results in Venezuela. Opposition members knew they had to obtain as many of them as possible to refute the unfavorable election outcome they expected electoral authorities to announce.

Months of preparations and thousands of volunteers participated in the herculean task.

Their effort earned Maduro and his loyal National Electoral Council global condemnation, including from close regional allies, and fueled the anger of Venezuelans fed up with their nation’s cascading economy. In response, the government called for opposition leaders to be arrested, capping an election season marked by repression and irregularities.

This account of the opposition’s effort is based on public statements, as well as interviews with party representatives, volunteers and others involved, all of whom spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of government retribution.

Discipline

Tens of thousands of volunteers participated in training workshops nationwide in recent months. They learned that under the law they could be inside polling centers on Election Day, stationed near voting machines, from before polls opened until the results had been electronically transmitted to the National Electoral Council in the capital, Caracas.

Organizational discipline was key to their success because the ruling party wields tight control over the voting system. Polling places are guarded by soldiers, civilian militia, police and loyalists of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela.

On Sunday, officials attempted to block opposition volunteers from voting centers, and in some places, they succeeded. But elsewhere, the volunteers were unshakable, and once inside voting centers, they did not leave, in some cases until after 11 p.m.

“They took courage with their law in hand, with the polling station manual in hand, and they managed to enter,” Machado said Sunday, before the polls closed. She called party representatives and other volunteers “the heroes of this process.”

The 90,000 party representatives were taught to obtain a copy of the tally sheets — printed from electronic voting machines after polls close — before the results were transmitted to the council.

“Our representatives have the right to their tally sheet,” Machado said. “No representative leaves their voting center without the document in hand.”

The volunteers were also trained to use a custom-made app to report voting center irregularities such as opening delays or power outages, and to scan a QR code printed on every tally sheet.

The ‘chorizo’

Venezuelans have used electronic voting machines for about two decades. The machines record votes, provide a paper receipt for each voter and — after polls close — print copies of the tally sheets, whose length has led to the nickname, “chorizo,” or “sausage’ in Spanish.

The tallies show vote totals broken down by candidate, the QR code and the signatures of party representatives, an employee of the electoral body and poll workers who are drawn by lot to participate.

Every party representative is entitled to a tally sheet, while another copy is placed in an envelope and delivered to the National Electoral Council headquarters.

Infighting and disorganization had consistently limited the ability of government opponents to secure and safeguard the tallies in previous elections. But Machado said the opposition had obtained more than 70% of sheets. That number would eventually grow to over 80%.

The QR code scans gave a team of campaign workers immediate access to voting results, which they tabulated Sunday night and Monday.

The National Electoral Council has not yet shared the tallies on its website, which has been down since Monday. While it is not obligated to post images of the tally sheets, it has previously shared each sheet’s totals.

The council on Monday reported that Maduro received 5.1 million votes, while Edmundo González, representing the Unitary Platform opposition coalition, earned more than 4.4 million. Council President Elvis Amoroso on Friday provided updated results from 96.87% of tally sheets, gave Maduro 6.4 million votes and Gonzalez 5.3 million.

Eight other men vied for the presidency, including Enrique Márquez, a former member of the electoral council, who decried the official results and lambasted authorities for the lack of transparency.

“Most of our witnesses … were prevented from accessing the voting centers,” he told reporters. “Those who were able to enter witnessed the process and waited for the tally sheets, but they were not given to them as required by law and its regulations. Not only does it violate the law, it generates obscurity, opacity, lack of transparency.”

The opposition, electoral experts and foreign governments questioning the official results, including President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil and President Gustavo Petro of Colombia, both Maduro allies, who have urged him to make the sheets public.

By bike, motorcycle, car or boat

Securing the “chorizo” from each of the 30,000 voting machines was only half the battle. The campaign needed to get them all fully scanned using equipment especially designed to copy the tally sheets.

That’s when yet more volunteers came into play. If the party representatives did not feel safe or were unable to reach the places where the scanners were housed, volunteers met the representatives, grabbed the sheets and transported them via motorcycle, car, bike and even boat to the appropriate locations.

By the time National Electoral Council President Elvis Amoroso was shown on television handing Maduro a document certifying his victory, the opposition had scanned more than half of the tally sheets. Hours later, Machado and González stood before reporters and announced the numbers that shook the country: The vote tallies show González received roughly 6.2 million votes versus Maduro’s 2.7 million. The scanned tallies were also uploaded to a searchable website, and anyone who voted could use their government identification number to check out the tally sheet belonging to the machine they used to vote.

The government then claimed that the electoral council’s website had been hacked. National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez insisted Maduro was the indisputable winner and called his opponents violent fascists. He called for Machado and González to be arrested.

Maduro has faced a cascade of criticism ever since. International observers say they were unable to verify the results. Regional allies urged the government to publish the complete vote tallies. On Thursday, the U.S. government congratulated González on his victory.

“At least 12 million Venezuelans peacefully went to the polls and exercised one of the most powerful rights given to people in any democracy: the right to vote,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement. “Unfortunately, the processing of those votes and the announcement of results by the Maduro-controlled National Electoral Council (CNE) were deeply flawed, yielding an announced outcome that does not represent the will of the Venezuelan people.”

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Eight people were arrested and three police officers were injured during violent unrest in Britain’s northeast, the latest in a wave of protests around the country after the fatal stabbing of three children earlier this week.

The eight were taken into custody on Friday night in Sunderland, Northumbria Police Chief Superintendent Helena Barron said in a statement, calling the scenes “completely unacceptable.”

The latest clash came days after violent far-right protests broke out in the northwestern town of Southport, where a teenage boy fatally stabbed three girls aged between six and nine during an event at a dance school. Eight other children also suffered stab wounds, and five of them were in critical condition alongside two adults believed to have been injured while protecting them.

Videos circulating on social media from the Sunderland protest show a local police station on fire and large crowds gathered carrying anti-immigrant signs.

“The shocking scenes we have witnessed in Sunderland this evening are completely unacceptable,” Chief Superintendent Barron said.

“I want to make it absolutely clear that the disorder, violence and damage which has occurred will not be tolerated.”

Earlier this week, police said they believed the crowd in Southport took to the streets over unconfirmed reports speculating on the identity of the teenage stabbings suspect.

The 17-year-old appeared at Liverpool Magistrates’ Court on Thursday and was named as Axel Rudakubana, PA Media reported after a judge lifted the reporting restrictions that normally apply to minors.

He has been charged with three counts of murder and 10 counts of attempted murder, as well as possession of a bladed article.

Police have said the suspect was born in Wales and lived in a village nearby, according to Reuters.

Lewis Atkinson, Labour MP for Sunderland Central, said on X that he was “appalled” by the scenes of destruction in the city on Friday.

“Our city is not represented by a tiny minority causing trouble,” Atkinson added, pledging his “full support” for the police to respond to “criminal thuggery and work to protect all the communities of our city.”

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper warned criminals stoking disorder “will pay the price for their violence and thuggery,” in a post on X on Friday.

“The police have the full backing of Government to take the strongest possible action & ensure they face the full force of the law. They do not represent Britain,” she said.

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At least 32 people have been killed and dozens injured in a suicide attack at a beach restaurant in the Somali capital Mogadishu on Friday, state media SONNA reported Saturday.

Six members of the Somali militant group al-Shabaab targeted the restaurant at the Beach View Hotel using a suicide bomb, according to SONNA.

“Security forces neutralized” five of the attackers who carried out the attack on Lido Beach, SONNA reported. It’s unclear if the sixth attacker has been killed as well.

Al-Shabaab has claimed responsibility for the attack, saying they were targeting Somali officials and officers, according to the SITE Intelligence Group, which tracks online activity of extremist organizations.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

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Call Don Draper, Venu Sports may have a marketing problem

The Disney, Fox and Warner Bros. Discovery jointly-owned streaming service said Thursday it will launch this fall at $42.99 per month. That’s much more expensive than Netflix, Max, Peacock or any other major subscription streaming service. It’s a lot less than the $73-per-month YouTube TV or a standard cable bundle — but those offerings include a wide variety of entertainment content beyond sports.

Venu will give consumers access to a bundle of networks: ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, SECN, ACCN, ESPNEWS, ABC, Fox, FS1, FS2, BTN, TNT, TBS, and truTV. Subscribers will also get ESPN+. The plan is to debut in time for the football season. It doesn’t include CBS and NBC, two networks that have the rights to many sports, including college football and NFL games.

Venu’s theoretical user is someone willing to pay a hefty monthly subscription for a narrow segment of media — live sports, but not all live sports. The service is marketing itself as a product for so-called “cord nevers” — a set of younger consumers who haven’t wanted to pay for cable because it’s too expensive but have been yearning for access to ESPN and other live sports.

It’s entirely unclear this user base will materialize.

There are two major obstacles for Venu to succeed. First, the total addressable market of users who are OK with paying $43 per month for some sports but not OK with paying for cable may not be that high. Many non-cable subscribers are content to watch highlights on YouTube and their favorite influencers for commentary. According to a survey by Kantar, cited by YouTube at its 2024 upfront, 54% of people would rather watch creators break down a major live event than actually watch the event.

On the other end of the spectrum, NFL-crazed younger people will have to buy Peacock and Paramount+ — the streaming services attached to NBC and CBS — to get a full slate of NFL games. They could also get a digital antenna to pair with Venu, but antenna uptake among younger viewers may be a tad oxymoronic.

Other major sporting events — such as the ongoing Olympics — simply won’t be available on Venu, because Olympic broadcaster Comcast’s NBCUniversal isn’t a part of the service.

The second problem is potentially bigger: A product like Venu already exists — and it may already be a better deal than Venu.

For $60 per month, Echostar’s Sling TV offers the popular networks that come with Venu — ESPN, TNT, TBS, Fox and ABC — but it also includes NBC. Moreover, it also comes with CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, Bravo, USA, HLN, Discovery NFL Network, and a slew of other networks — 46 in all, to Venu’s 14. Plus, it comes with an introductory offer where consumers can pay just $30 for the first month.

As of the end of March, Sling TV had 1.92 million subscribers, and it’s not growing. It lost 135,000 customers in the first quarter, which was actually a narrower loss than the 234,000 subscribers it lost in the first quarter a year ago.

At the end of 2021, Sling TV had 2.5 million customers, down from the 2.7 million subscribers it topped out at in 2019.

The company blamed the existence of other streaming services for its decline last quarter.

“We continue to experience increased competition, including competition from other subscription video-on-demand and live-linear OTT service providers, many of which are providers of our content and offer football and other seasonal sports programming direct to subscribers on an a la carte basis,” Echostar said in a filing.

To sum up, Sling TV — a more robust offering than Venu for about $17 more per month — has been losing subscribers for five years and never got more than 2.7 million as its peak.

That’s quite the marketing challenge for Venu, which will need to convince consumers that it’s worth signing up for on the strength of branding and technology.

Or, it will hope that its $43 per month offer lasts long enough that it can take advantage of the $17 delta. The typical pattern for bundles of live networks is they start with an introductory offer only to raise prices. Venu hinted at this in its press release, telling consumers they could lock in the $43 per-month price for 12 months from time of sign-up — suggesting a price increase may be coming.

Venu wants to add more sports to the serve in time, but that will likely cause the price to increase, making the value proposition an even tougher sell for cord-nevers.

Further undercutting Venu, Disney is already planning an ESPN Flagship streaming service in the fall of 2025, which will include ESPN for a lower price than Venu.

Disney, Warner Bros. Discovery and Fox will argue that it’s going for maximum coverage here — kind of like the Apple iPad mini did in slotting into the tech company’s existing product line-up between its phones and larger tablets. Maybe there’s an audience for Venu, and if there is, the companies want to serve it. Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch has already predicted the service can get 5 million subscribers in the next five years.

But even 5 million seems ambitious given Sling TV’s struggles. Getting there will require a lot of money spent on marketing.

And that effort may be so costly that it defeats the purpose.

Disclosure: CNBC parent NBCUniversal owns NBC Sports and NBC Olympics. NBC Olympics is the U.S. broadcast rights holder to all Summer and Winter Games through 2032. NBC Sports broadcasts NFL games.

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