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Rioters attacked a hotel used to house asylum seekers in the UK town of Rotherham on Sunday, as the country faces the worst social unrest it has seen in years.

The violence was triggered by the stabbing of three young girls in Southport, northwest England, earlier in the week. The far right has seized on and spread a wave of disinformation, including false claims the attacker was an immigrant, to mobilize anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant protests. Police say the suspect was born in Britain.

In the latest violence, the Holiday Inn Express Hotel in Rotherham was targeted by protesters who stormed the building, with reports of it being set on fire, according to PA Media. Rioters threw objects and sprayed fire extinguishers at police officers during the clashes.

Some of the rioters waved England flags as they chanted and faced off with officers. According to PA, at least one injured officer wearing riot gear was seen being carried from the scene.

British Home Secretary Yvette Cooper condemned the attack. “The criminal, violent attack on a hotel housing asylum seekers in Rotherham is utterly appalling. Deliberately setting fire to a building with people known to be inside,” she wrote on X.

It comes as the UK’s policing minister has said that there will be a “nick them quick” approach to far-right rioters who have caused unrest across the country, but added there was no need to bring in the army.

In comments to the BBC, Dame Diana Johnson stressed that the plan was to carry out swift arrests and charges in order to take rioters off the street as quickly as possible and act as a deterrent to prevent further unrest.

More than 90 people were arrested in multiple cities and towns on Saturday and authorities put extra measures in place to maintain order.

The violent unrest is the worst seen since the riots of 2011 and provides a huge challenge to the Labour government of Keir Starmer just weeks after it won power.

“We’ve seen obviously, arrest which is very important, and we want to send a very clear message that if people get involved in this criminal disorder, that they will be brought to account. They will be charged, they will be taken to court, and there will be penalties,” Johnson said.

There have been discussions to bring in the army to assist police, but currently “there is no need to bring in the army,” Johnson said. “The police have made it very clear that they have all the resources they need at the moment. There’s mutual aid, as I’ve just described, and they have the powers that they need.”

Joe Mulhall, Director of Research at Hope Not Hate – a charity which campaigns against racism and fascism – has warned that the social media platform X, formerly Twitter, has become a central space for the spreading of dangerous disinformation and the promotion of the protests.

“A number of the most important figures spreading disinformation and exacerbating tensions, most notably Stephen Lennon (a.k.a. Tommy Robinson), had previously been de-platformed on X but have been given their accounts back since Elon Musk took control of the platform.

“This has resulted in far-right extremists once again being able to reach millions of people with their dangerous and divisive propaganda.”

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Rescuers in Gaza raced to dig victims from the rubble on Sunday after Israeli airstrikes on two school buildings left at least 30 people dead, according to the Palestinian Civil Defense. The strikes continue a bloody weekend, after a similar lethal attack on Saturday.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Israel Security Agency have taken responsibility for the strike, saying that they were targeting “terrorists operating inside Hamas command and control centers” that were “embedded” within the schools.

“If a warning had been given, the number of deaths would have been lower,” Basal said.

Sunday’s strike follows a series of strikes on the Al-Huda and Al-Hamama schools — also targeting alleged Hamas infrastructure, according to the IDF — that left at least 17 dead on Saturday.

In that case, Basal said, “the first bombing was unexpected and resulted in a large number of martyrs and injured individuals. While the martyrs and injured were being retrieved, the occupation forces issued a warning that another strike was imminent.”

The death toll from Israeli military action in Gaza since October 7 reached 39,583 on Sunday, with a further 91,398 people injured, according to the Ministry of Health in Gaza. Israel launched the action in Gaza following the Hamas attacks, wihich killed around 1,200 people.

This story has been updated with additional information.

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Mali has severed diplomatic ties with Ukraine after the country supplied intelligence to Malian rebels involved in an ambush against Wagner Group forces in July.

“The transitional government of the Republic of Mali condemns the hostility of the authorities of Ukraine who do not observe that Mali has always called for a peaceful settlement of the crisis between the Russian Federation and Ukraine,” government spokesman Colonel Abdoulaye Maiga said in a televised statement on Sunday.

Andriy Yusov, a representative of Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), previously said Kyiv had provided the militants with intelligence for the attack, saying on Ukrainian television in late July that “the rebels received necessary information, which enabled a successful military operation against Russian war criminals.”

The attack was claimed by a Tuareg rebels group along with the al Qaeda affiliate in the Sahel, JNIM (Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin). Known for ad hoc cooperation, they appear to have collaborated to trap the Russian convoy.

After the attack, JNIM claimed that a “complex ambush” had wiped out the convoy, killing 50 Russians and several Malian soldiers, and published videos showing several vehicles ablaze as well as dozens of bodies in the area. A Tuareg militant group spokesman said some Malian troops and Russian fighters had also been captured during the battle.

According to some unofficial Russian Telegram channels, as many as 80 Russians were killed. That would make it by far the worst loss for Russian paramilitaries in several years of operating in Africa, as the Kremlin has sought to use proxy forces to challenge Western influence across the Sahel and central Africa and prop up unstable regimes.

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Following a military blockade, panic and chaos rip through a besieged island: residents scramble to withdraw cash, foreign nationals rush to be evacuated, riots break out in prisons and television networks are hacked into broadcasting enemy propaganda.

These fictitious scenes have stirred emotion and imagination in Taiwan over what an imminent Chinese invasion may look like, since their release last month in a trailer for “Zero Day,” a forthcoming Taiwanese television series.

The 10-part show is the first in Taiwan to dramatize a possible invasion by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). That threat has loomed over the self-governing island for decades but is now gaining pace as a more powerful and aggressive China ruled by the Communist Party increasingly flexes its military might, pushing tensions to new heights.

The 17-minute trailer hit close to home in Taiwan, making headlines in local media and garnering more than a million views on YouTube.

“As a 21-year-old, I almost burst into tears when I watched it. Every scene in those 17 minutes felt so close to us. Maybe one day in the future, these scenarios will become the reality around us,” said a top comment with more than a thousand upvotes.

But the show also attracted criticism, including from opposition politicians, who said it created panic and exaggerating the crisis.

The specter of war is nothing new for Taiwan, a progressive democracy living in the shadow of authoritarian China, which views the island as its own territory and has vowed to seize it by force if necessary.

Many of Taiwan’s 23 million people have grown used to Beijing’s military threats, even as they become more regular and prominent under Xi Jinping, China’s strongman leader.

But Hsin-mei Cheng, the showrunner of “Zero Day,” worried that her fellow Taiwan citizens have grown “too numb” to the danger of an impending conflict.

“But as the crisis looms larger over the past two years, I think it’s about time we take a hard look at it and open this Pandora’s box,” she said.

A first in Taiwan

In late 2022, more than half a year into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and months after former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei prompted a massive show of force from Beijing, Cheng decided to turn China’s threats against Taiwan into a TV drama.

It was an unprecedented project in an industry that had traditionally shunned sensitive political topics, Cheng said, but she found no shortage of like-minded partners along the way.

Robert Tsao, a chip tycoon and one of Taiwan’s richest men, became the show’s first major investor. The tech billionaire who founded Taiwan’s first semiconductor company, UMC, has previously warned of China’s threat and donated tens of millions of dollars to help Taiwan bolster its defense.

Cheng also assembled a team of 10 directors, each responsible for an episode in “Zero Day” that tells an independent story. Her main criterion for picking the crew: not afraid of being banned by China.

The vast Chinese market of 1.4 billion people has long been a draw for Taiwan’s actors and directors. But as tension rises across the strait, Taiwanese artists are increasingly faced with a choice between vocally toeing Beijing’s political line or being blocked from its lucrative market.

“The existence of this series shows that there are investors and talents who are willing to resist China’s aggression, and there’s a market for them,” said Lo Ging-zim, who directed the show’s trailer and one of the episodes.

“We are all worried and anxious about Taiwan’s present and future, and we hope to contribute what we can with our own skills.”

Taiwan’s government and its military were supportive of the series, too.

The Presidential Office allowed the show to film on its premises, including a room where the president delivers addresses. And with the military’s approval, the production crew shot scenes aboard a warship during its routine drills.

Getting the authorities on board wasn’t easy.

“It took a lot of communication and persuasion at first,” Cheng said. But the officials understood the importance of the issue at stake and the power of films and TV shows in shaping public perception, she added. “Eventually, they decided it could be a good thing if someone makes a TV series about it.”

The show also received funding from Taiwan’s Ministry of Culture. But Lo, the director, stressed it was part of a broader program to support the island’s film and TV industries.

Neither the funding nor the access for filming gives the government any right to interfere with the production, Lo said, adding that “not a single word of the script had been modified by the government.”

“This is not a political propaganda video or patriotic film,” he said.

That level of artistic and political freedom would be impossible in mainland China and even in the city of Hong Kong, which once boasted a comparatively free and outspoken film industry that has been tamed in recent years as part of a wider crackdown.

Some Hong Kong artists have since moved to Taiwan, including Chapman To, who is starring in “Zero Day.” A vocal supporter of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement, To became a naturalized Taiwanese citizen in 2022.

The shooting of “Zero Day”, which started in March, is expected to be wrapped up by the end of November and the show is planned for broadcast in Taiwan next year.

The production team is also in touch with streaming services including Netflix for a potential international release, though discussions are still in the early stages, Lo said.

‘Red infiltration’

Most of the series takes place in the week-long countdown to “Zero Day” – the day of the fictional attack.

It starts with Beijing imposing a naval and aerial blockade on Taiwan, under the pretext of search and rescue for a PLA aircraft that “vanished” near the island. In the final episode, Chinese soldiers make landing in Kinmen, a frontline island controlled by Taiwan.

Cheng noted the show doesn’t feature many bloody scenes of military combat – instead, much of the focus is placed on “red infiltration” by China’s ruling Communist Party.

“For me, the war has already begun in Taiwan. It is not being fought through guns and cannons, but through information and infiltration. It’s permeating our daily lives,” she said.

Taiwan officials have increasingly warned against China’s cognitive warfare operations, including disinformation campaigns to sway public opinion.

In “Zero Day,” Chinese infiltration and cognitive warfare takes on many forms – from the lure of money and power to the threat of violence.

In the trailer, a Taiwanese influencer casually encourages her fans to give up the fight and endorse a “peace agreement” with Beijing while livestreaming herself savoring an ice cream; elsewhere, a group of felons walk free from prison and instigate unrest, attacking those who refuse “unification.”

Neither of these scenarios are unimaginable. Thanks to the island’s free speech protections, which were hard won after decades of martial law rule, it is not unusual to see Taiwanese celebrities and influencers parroting Beijing’s talking points. Meanwhile, Taiwan authorities have long publicly accused certain organized crime groups of spreading pro-Chinese Communist Party influence.

In another chilling scene in the trailer, the president’s emergency address to Taiwan is hacked during a live broadcast, with an AI deepfake declaring war on China. Then, television screens across the island abruptly cut to a newscast on Chinese state TV. With an eerie smile, an anchor in a pink suit announces, “the PLA promises all Taiwanese compatriots will be fully protected” and urges them to report any “pro-independence forces” in hiding.

Su Tzu-yun, a military expert at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research who has served as an adviser to “Zero Day,” said the series would be “an important force in countering China’s ‘gray zone tactics’” – or actions just below what might be considered acts of war.

“In the face of fear, people can build up confidence, and this can indirectly and partially offset China’s influence warfare.” he said. “At the same time, when this film is shown on international streaming platforms, viewers around the world can learn about Taiwan from a new perspective,” he added.

The teaser has drawn praise as well as criticism.

Some blamed the series for creating panic. Lee Yen-hsiu, a member of parliament from the opposition Kuomintang party – which in recent decades has pushed for closer ties with China – accused the show of exaggerating the threat of war and further deterring international tourists from visiting Taiwan.

Others accused the trailer of making the Taiwan government look too feeble in the face of aggression from China – which has a military, population and economy that dwarfs Taiwan’s.

Lo, the director, said the government’s capability and Taiwan’s social cohesion were deliberately weakened in the show to highlight the power of Chinese infiltration – and alert Taiwanese people to be more vigilant in real life.

“We want to explore what part of humanity will show up in such a state – would it be fragility, fear and greed or courage and empathy?” he said.

“I believe every Taiwanese person has their own version of Zero Day attack in their mind. We were just the first to make it into a series.”

Cheng didn’t mind the mixed reaction.

“We all think it’s a good thing. As long as the show generates attention and discussion, it means that it resonates with something in people’s hearts,” she said.

Cheng said she didn’t want the show to cause division in Taiwan. During the production process, the crew tried to search for a common denominator that could represent the aspirations of all Taiwanese people.

They found an answer and placed it in the trailer – in the form of a line in the presidential address – “We will always believe, without choices, there’s no freedom. Without freedom, there’s no Taiwan.”

“I hope the show can serve as a wakeup call to the Taiwanese people: what should we do when we still have the right to choose?” Cheng said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

North Korea claims it is sending 250 new tactical ballistic missile launchers toward its border with South Korea, in the latest bellicose declaration by leader Kim Jong Un against its neighbor.

Photographs published by the North Korean state newspaper Rodong Sinmun showed what appears to be vehicle-based missile launchers, with dozens of large green military trucks lined up in neat rows before Kim.

In an elaborate and orchestrated ceremony on Sunday night, a crowd of spectators cheered as vehicles rolled past and fireworks shot into the sky.

Kim personally oversaw the transfer of equipment to military commanders and chiefs of staff, and delivered a speech claiming the new missile launchers were built with North Korean technology, state media reported.

He added that the display is the first stage of planned missile force construction for the North’s military border units.

“Dialogue or confrontation can be our choice, but what we must be more thoroughly prepared for is confrontation,” Kim said, adding it was the “keynote of our policy toward the US that we have consistently maintained.”

North Korea will make it clear that “if the US ignores our repeated warnings and continues to attempt to undermine the security of the region, it will have dire consequences for its own security,” the dictator added.

What we know about North Korea’s abilities

The border between North and South Korea is already one of the most militarized in the world, and Pyongyang has long claimed that it has huge amounts of artillery and military hardware pointed south.

Sunday’s display in Pyongyang comes during a summer of heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula, with North Korea entering into a new military “strategic partnership” with Russia in June.

While the photos appear to show dozens of green transporter-erector launcher vehicles, and trucks equipped with missile launchers positioned behind the driver’s cab, it’s unclear if any of the vehicles had functioning missiles during Sunday’s event.

Joseph Dempsey, research associate for defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said on Monday it was difficult to assess if any of the missiles were loaded at the ceremony – but “it would seem unlikely and illogical based on practicality and safety.”

He added that the launcher’s design and terminology is “associated with the Hwasong-11D, a short-range ballistic missile which North Korea claims can be armed with a tactical nuclear warhead.”

“Assuming all 250 launchers are functional it’s unclear if North Korea has produced the corresponding capacity of 1,000 missiles (and beyond),” he added. “It’s highly improbable at least that North Korea has anywhere near that number of tactical nuclear warheads.”

Since conducting its first nuclear test more than a decade ago, North Korea has advanced its weapons capabilities, with the ambition of miniaturizing a warhead so that it can fit on a long-range missile.

Experts say North Korea has likely already manufactured a small stockpile of nuclear warheads – but it remains unproven whether it has been able to make them small and light enough to be fitted on a missile.

North Korea’s ability to deploy a nuclear warhead on any kind of missile is unproven.

Rising tensions

Pyongyang had warned late last year that it would deploy new military hardware along the military demarcation line that separates it from the South, after Seoul partially pulled back from a 2018 agreement designed to ease tensions along the border.

But any goodwill generated by the agreement has evaporated in recent years, and both countries have now officially abandoned it.

Kim, who did not get the concessions he wanted from the US and South Korea during subsequent talks after 2018, has since ramped up the North’s ballistic missile program, pledging to give Pyongyang a nuclear deterrent like that possessed by Washington.

In response to the North Korean buildup, the US and South Korea – along with Japan – have stepped up their military cooperation via exercises and deployments that Pyongyang sees as a threat.

There have been at least three incidents of South Korea firing warning shots since May after North Korean military personnel crossed the demarcation line, the midpoint of the Demilitarized Zone between the two countries.

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Israel’s envoy to Japan has hit out at authorities in Nagasaki after they declined to invite him to a peace ceremony commemorating the 1945 atomic bombing of the city, accusing the local mayor of “inventing” security fears.

The decision by Nagasaki contrasts with that of Hiroshima, which hosts its ceremony on Tuesday and has invited Israel.

Both cities had been under pressure from activists and bomb survivor groups to exclude Israel due to its bombardment of Gaza, where tens of thousands of Palestinians have been killed since Israel began targeting militant group Hamas following the October 7 attack.

Russia and Belarus have both been disinvited over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and campaigners had hoped Nagasaki and Hiroshima – which both suffered the horror unleashed by nuclear weapons at the end of World War II – would do the same.

Nagasaki’s mayor Shiro Suzuki told reporters last week that Israel’s exclusion from Friday’s upcoming memorial was due to security concerns and was not a political decision.

“I would like to emphasize that this decision was not based on political considerations, but rather on our desire to hold the ceremony to commemorate the victims of the atomic bombings in a peaceful and solemn atmosphere, and to ensure that the ceremony goes smoothly,” he said, calling the decision “difficult.”

But Gilad Cohen, Israel’s ambassador in Tokyo, rejected that argument.

“I am really surprised by him hijacking this ceremony for his political motivations,” the diplomat added.

Cohen did not reveal more about why he felt there were no security concerns, citing confidentiality. But he pointed out authorities in Hiroshima took no issue with security over Israel’s attendance.

He said he would be laying floral tributes at Hiroshima Peace Park on Tuesday to commemorate the victims of atomic bombing and their families.

The diplomat noted that Iran, which backs both Hamas and Hezbollah, is set to attend the Nagasaki ceremony.

“This is exactly the opposite message that should be sent to the free world and to civilization,” he said.

He did not reveal whether the embassy has made an official complaint to the Japanese government but called Tokyo “an ally of Israel.”

The bombing of Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, and Nagasaki three days later led to Japan’s unconditional surrender and brought an end to World War II. But it also killed tens of thousands of people, both instantly and in the months and years to come due to radiation sickness.

Each year the two cities hold memorials attended by diplomats to promote global peace and the idea that nuclear weapons must never be used again.

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China’s internet exploded with joy and pride Monday after the country’s swimmers ended the United States’ decades-long reign in the men’s 4×100 meters medley at the Olympics, a spectacular win for a Chinese team that has faced intense scrutiny in the wake of a doping controversy.

Pan Zhanle, who set the world record in the 100m freestyle last week, powered China from third position into the lead in the final leg of the relay on Sunday, overtaking his American and French rivals in a stunning reversal.

Pan finished in 45.92 seconds, faster than the 46.40 seconds he swam four days earlier in the 100m final.

Team USA finished 0.55 seconds behind the Chinese team, failing to take gold in the event for the first time since the US boycotted the 1980 Moscow Olympics and ending its unbeaten streak stretching back to the men’s medley debut at the 1960 Games.

This is China’s second gold in swimming at the Paris Olympics, following Pan’s record-setting win last Wednesday. But outside China, their success has been met with scrutiny – including from some of their peers in the world of elite swimming.

The Chinese swim team has come under immense pressure following revelations that nearly half the group Beijing sent to the Tokyo Olympics in 2021 had months earlier tested positive for a banned performance enhancing substance.

The swimmers had been cleared by China’s Anti-Doping Agency shortly before the Tokyo Games, after it ruled that the positive tests for a banned heart medication were the result of contamination, likely from a hotel restaurant. The global sports doping watchdog World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) accepted the assessment without an appeal.

The accusations, first reported by the New York Times and German public broadcaster ARD in April, have sparked backlash in the swimming world, where doping can result in years-long bans for athletes who violate the rules.

Concern only deepened last week, after WADA acknowledged a separate 2022 case in which two Chinese swimmers tested positive for trace amounts of a banned anabolic steroid. They were provisionally suspended but later cleared of a violation by Chinese officials – again citing contamination linked to food, WADA said.

In China, many social media users saw the Chinese swim team’s historic win in the relay as a resounding vindication.

The victory dominated discussions on Chinese social media on Monday, creating several top trending topics on microblogging site Weibo. The hashtag “Pan Zhanle’s stunning reversal” racked up more than 500 million views, as did another hashtag about the relay gold medal.

Pan, who turned 20 on Sunday, called the team gold medal his birthday present.

“I fulfilled the promise I made a year ago by celebrating my 20th birthday with a team gold medal,” he wrote in a viral post on Weibo, where the swimmer became an overnight celebrity with 1.6 million followers.

“A new journey has begun, and the goals have been quietly set. I hope I can make an even greater contribution to the team. The Chinese swim team is always the best!”

Pan also won fans for his confidence and candidness.

In a pool-side interview with state broadcaster CCTV right after the event, some of Pan’s teammates said they were not happy with their own performance in the earlier legs of the relay. Pan cheered and praised his teammates: “The race is over, and the championship is ours. It shouldn’t be us who are dissatisfied; it should be the others.”

‘We won fair and square’

In China, where the swim team has long been a source of Olympic glory, the doping allegations have brought outrage and accusations of unfair treatment – especially over the scrutiny the team has faced this summer.

Nearly a dozen Chinese swimmers who tested positive three years ago are competing in the Paris Olympics, including two of the quartet that won relay gold on Sunday.

Double gold-medalist Pan did not test positive in 2021, but he has also faced questions over his stellar performance in Paris.

After Pan smashed the world record in the 100m freestyle last week, Brett Hawke, a former Australian Olympic swimmer and coach, posted on Instagram that “it’s not humanly possible to beat that field” and that the swim was “not real life. Not in that pool, against that field.”

Back in China, state media and internet users have rallied to Pan’s defense. On Monday, many Chinese social media users applauded Pan for defying the pressure and proving his accusers wrong.

“If breaking the record the first time didn’t convince the foreigners, this stunning reversal surely did. (Pan’s) so impressive and dominant!” said a comment with 2,300 upvotes.

“Our strength speaks for itself. We won the gold fair and square,” said another.

But overseas, doubts linger.

After Sunday’s relay, British triple Olympic gold medalist Adam Peaty called for stricter doping testing after the British team finished fourth in the race.

“I think we’ve got to have faith in the system, but we also don’t,” he said, according to Reuters. “I think it’s just got to be stricter.”

“One of my favorite quotes I’ve seen lately is there’s no point in winning if you don’t win it fair,” Peaty said. “And I think you know that truth in your heart. Even if you touch and you know you’re cheating, you don’t win it, right.

“So, for me, if you’ve been on that and you have been contaminated twice, I think as an honorable person, you should be out of the sport.”

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Trump Media said Friday it has started rolling out a TV streaming service that aims to air “neglected” content on its social media platform Truth Social.

The company’s stock price, which trades under the ticker DJT on the Nasdaq, jumped more than 6% Friday morning on the heels of the news.

DJT shares had been in a slump since the share price briefly surged after former President Donald Trump, who is the company’s majority shareholder, survived an assassination attempt on July 13. Before Friday, the share price had fallen more than 33% after that bump.

Trump, who is the Republican presidential nominee, owns nearly 59% of the company’s stock.

In a press release Friday, Trump Media said it is now stress testing the TV streaming service, dubbed Truth+, on its “new content delivery network.”

Once deployed, the company said, Truth Social users will be able to use the service simultaneously while they browse the platform’s existing microblogging content.

“We’re establishing a reliable home for great TV content that is neglected by the big corporations or is at risk of cancellation,” Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes said in the release.

That content will initially include news, commentary, weather and lifestyle and entertainment channels, with plans to expand with Christian- and family-focused programming, the company said.

The company, which has billed itself as a conservative alternative to social media giants such as Facebook and X, claimed in the release that its streaming service will be “uncancellable by Big Tech.”

Trump Media last month as part of the rollout of its content network announced an asset acquisition agreement with the LLCs WorldConnect IPTV Solutions and JedTec.

ProPublica on Tuesday reported that JedTec is an obscure entity led by James Davison, a major Republican donor and energy magnate whose business interests could be affected if Trump wins a second term as president.

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President Biden’s withdrawal and Vice President Harris’s selection as the presumptive Democratic nominee has reset the 50-state race for the White House.

Former president Donald Trump had gained in national and state-level polls after a June debate in which Biden appeared confused and was at times unable to answer questions.

But in the two weeks since Biden dropped out and Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee, Democrats’ poll numbers — and their chances of holding the White House — have rebounded. The path to victory for Harris once again runs through seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

“The Democratic base is coming home,” said Amy Walter, publisher and editor in chief of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. “In states that we know that are evenly divided and have been very, very close for these last few elections, they kind of snap back to being very, very competitive and will be the focus of the 2024 campaign.”

Although Trump’s paths to victory were expanding in late June and early July, the race “is now contracting back to the original six or seven battleground states,” Walter added.

Trump and Harris are now in a virtual tie, with Trump at 46 percent support and Harris at 45.4 percent support, according to a Washington Post average of national polls. In July, Trump had 46.8 percent support while Biden had 45.2 percent support, according to The Post’s polling average.

As of Saturday, Trump still led in five of the seven battlegrounds, according to The Post’s polling average.

Trump leads Harris by five points in Georgia and Arizona, four points in North Carolina and Nevada and two points in Michigan, The Post’s averages estimate. Trump and Harris are tied in Pennsylvania, while Harris has a slight edge in Wisconsin. Harris is performing about one percentage point better in those states than Biden was before he dropped out.

Harris is doing better with Black voters, which could help bring Georgia back into play for Democrats, polling suggests. But she may not be able to replicate Biden’s appeal with White, non-college voters, which could impact her chances in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Democrats are “seeing tremendous enthusiasm for Vice President Harris and her vision in the states, whether it’s brand new supporters showing up at field offices in Nevada and Pennsylvania to knock doors or the 1,000 Georgia voters who signed up to volunteer after her rally in Atlanta,” Josh Marcus-Blank, states communications director for Harris, said in an emailed statement.

Strategists from both parties see Pennsylvania as a near must-win state for both Trump and Harris. Pennsylvania is also the state where Republicans and Democrats are investing the most in TV ad spending. Democrats are spending more than $56 million on television ads in the state between July 21 and the November election, according to the firm AdImpact. Republicans are spending $61 million.

After Pennsylvania, Democrats have spent the most on presidential television ads in Michigan, followed by Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina and Nevada. For Republicans, television ad spending after Pennsylvania was highest in Georgia, followed by Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina and Nevada.

“If I were in their shoes, I wouldn’t be banking on anything outside of the blue wall saving me,” said Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist, of the Harris campaign. “If you’re banking on Arizona, and Georgia and North Carolina saving you from losing the blue wall, that’s not a bet I’d want to make … The pivotal state remains Pennsylvania. If you win it, you’ve got a chance.”

Many Republicans say Harris is enjoying a honeymoon period, with the rollout of her candidacy, her upcoming vice-presidential announcement and the Democratic National Convention weeks away. New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu predicted that in his state, Harris’s poll numbers will hit a “high-water mark around mid-to-late August” and said that “if she doesn’t have enough of a buffer they’re going to come back down.”

Trump “has been gaining ground and leading in battleground and blue states,” Karoline Leavitt, a Trump campaign spokesperson, said in a statement. “As more voters understand how weak, failed and dangerously liberal Kamala Harris is, President Trump’s chances in these battleground states and traditionally Democrat strongholds will only get better,” she added.

Still, Democrats see Harris as more competitive than Biden in the Sun Belt states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

“She has appeal to some constituencies within the party that were lagging with Biden,” including younger voters and Black and Hispanic voters, said David Axelrod, a former senior adviser to President Obama. “That puts into play some of those Sun Belt states that have seemed out of reach. They’re still a stretch but they’re not nearly the stretch they were.”

Axelrod added that while there’s more energy and optimism for Democrats, “everybody should be sober that given the map, it is still a difficult race.”

At Trump’s rally in Atlanta on Saturday, several Trump voters said they saw Harris as a more formidable opponent than Biden because of her age. But they expected Trump to prevail in Georgia.

Kirk Barnett said Harris is “probably” a tougher opponent. “She is coherent,” he said.

The candidates’ travel will offer clues for how they see the map going forward. Trump held a rally in Georgia this weekend, days after Harris also visited the state. Harris, meanwhile, plans to hit all seven battleground states this week, when she introduces her running mate. Harris’s running mate choice will also shed further light on her campaign strategy. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is among the potential running mates she’s vetting, along with Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly.

As November approaches, analysts caution that the shape of the race remains uncertain.

In the course of a month, Biden had a debate that changed the direction of the presidential race, Trump was nearly assassinated and Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ticket, Walter noted.

“All those things happened and it’s not like the polls flipped,” she said.

Emily Guskin and Scott Clement contributed to this report.

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JD Hamel was a high school senior in an Ohio steel town when the United States invaded Iraq in 2003. The future senator and nominee for vice president, who uses Vance for his surname now, joined the Marines a few weeks later confident, he later recalled, that freedom and democracy would follow.

But his optimism was short lived as the war, deemed necessary by President George W. Bush after spurious intelligence indicated a dire threat to U.S. security, quickly proved a deadly quagmire instead.

“My entire life has been influenced and affected by the decisions we made a month before I enlisted,” Vance said last year in a speech at the conservative Heritage Foundation. He lamented how those who were “the most wrong” about Iraq “suffered no consequences.” The U.S. foreign policy establishment, he asserted, “has learned zero lessons from what is perhaps the most unforced and catastrophic error in the history of this country.”

Those comments are emblematic of the antiestablishment views Vance, 40, has promulgated before and since becoming Donald Trump’s running mate. And while his military service represents only a brief period of his early adulthood, he and his political opponents both have seized on his service in the early days of his addition to the ticket.

If elected, Vance would become the first to serve at such a senior level from among the generation of men and women who went to war after 9/11. He spent four years in the Marines, from ages 18 to 23, deploying once to Iraq for six months in his capacity as a public affairs specialist, a job that entailed writing news releases, taking photos and interacting with journalists. He did not face combat.

Vance’s rhetoric, however, has puzzled some who served with him, as he has shifted from a moderate Republican sharply critical of Trump just a few years ago to a hard line ally now who has echoed the former president’s falsehoods about the 2020 election and made demeaning comments about “childless cat ladies” and prominent Democrats.

Cullen Tiernan, who served with Vance, said he was not interested in assessing Vance’s statements about past elections, adding “a lot of this election chatter is looking backwards.” Asked if he intends to vote for his friend, Tiernan, who identifies as left-leaning, said he was undecided.

“I love JD, I really want to vote for him, but it’ll take me some time to get there. I want to hear what Harris has to say,” he said. “I’m going to take my time and give it a lot of deep thought.”

Some Democrats have sought to minimize Vance’s military record because he saw no combat and argued that his allegiance to Trump is an affront to the Constitution and core values of honor, courage and commitment that every U.S. Marine promises to uphold.

Vance’s former military colleagues defended him against such allegations that his service record should be left out of criticism of his politics. Shawn Haney, a retired Marine officer whom Vance has praised for her mentorship during those years, said she doesn’t agree with “much of his current politics.”

Yet Haney she is able to “separate the person from the candidate and have those unconditional feelings of pride for someone that I have served with, mentored, and considered a friend for almost 20 years.”

Vance, through a spokesman, declined to comment for this article.

A transformation

In his 2016 best-selling memoir “Hillbilly Elegy,” Vance wrote that he first considered joining the Marines at the suggestion of a cousin who had served. He was interested in attending college, he wrote, but had a spotty high school transcript and worried he would struggle with the debt and lack of structure that college life would bring.

In September 2003, Vance shipped off to boot camp in Parris Island, S.C., where a team of frothing drill instructors hounded him and the other recruits, barking orders and pushing them to their physical and emotional limits. He dropped 45 pounds in that time and emerged from the experience with a newfound confidence, his book says.

After graduating from entry level training, Vance went home to visit family and friends in Middletown, Ohio. He saw a “world of small expectations” and “learned helplessness,” he wrote — people who believe their choices have no effect on their lives. Marines are taught the opposite.

When Vance arrived at Cherry Point, an airfield in North Carolina, to start his first assignment, he was, like most new to the military, not a “worldly guy,” said Wil Acosta, who supervised him. Acosta recalled how more seasoned Marines in their unit felt protective of him and once imparted their counsel to ensure Vance wouldn’t get scammed by the high-interest loan car lots that ring a lot of bases.

Vance was reserved at first, said Curt Keester, who also served with him at Cherry Point. Eventually, though, Vance opened up, sharing stories about his older sister, Lindsay Ratliff, her children, and his colorful grandmother, known as “Mamaw.” He has described her as a gun-toting, foul-mouthed “hillbilly” who stepped in as his mother struggled with drug addiction. Keester said Vance spoke less about his mom in those days.

Tiernan said Vance loved reading and was a fan of the authors Ayn Rand, C.S. Lewis and J.R.R. Tolkien. In their free time, they enjoyed visiting the beach, watching football at Buffalo Wild Wings, and playing poker.

‘Affected deeply’ in Iraq

Vance deployed to Iraq from August 2005 to February 2006, and was posted at Al-Asad air base in the western part of the country. The American public had largely soured on the war as sectarian bloodshed soared and it became clear the United States could not easily disentangle itself from the conflict.

Shortly after he arrived, Vance wrote on a blog that he was “a little homesick, but mostly happy to be here and finally contribute, even if only a small part, to our country’s mission.” A spokesman confirmed the blog’s authenticity.

In the weeks before Vance’s deployment, Bush addressed the nation attempting to rally support by describing Iraq as part of a broader war against terrorism. Months later, the president acknowledged that “much of the intelligence” cited by the administration to make the case for its occupation was “wrong.”

While overseas, Vance lived in trailer-like containerized housing, rooming with Tiernan and spending hours watching DVDs sent from home or pirated and sold to them in base shops, his friends recalled.

The public affairs Marines did much of their work at desks, but they sometimes left the relative safety of their base to capture the stories of service members more directly in harm’s way. Vance’s articles from Iraq appear under the byline James D. Hamel, his legal name at the time. Among them are interviews with pilots and an account of a visit by the Marine Corps’ top general.

Vance, in his book, wrote that he was “lucky to escape any real fighting” but “affected deeply” by a day in which he encountered an Iraqi boy whom he handed an eraser, prompting the boy to become “overjoyed” at the small gift despite attending a school without running water.

While Vance wrote that he doesn’t believe in “transformative moments,” the exchange was “pretty close.” He had long resented his own family’s circumstances, he added, and changed his perspective as he observed what it was like to come of age in war-ravaged Iraq.

“I began to appreciate how lucky I was: born in the greatest country on earth, every modern convenience at my fingertips, supported by two loving hillbillies, and part of a family that, for all its quirks, loved me unconditionally,” Vance wrote.

Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), a former Marine infantry officer who deployed to Iraq four times, has made perhaps the sharpest attack on Vance’s service record. Speaking in July on the left-leaning “Pod Save The World” podcast, Moulton said Vance “didn’t do much fighting” during the war and “doesn’t exactly uphold Marine values.”

“I consider him one of the biggest hypocrites in Congress,” Moulton said. “Someone who wrote a book completely contradicted by his candidacy. Someone who assailed Trump before he became a sycophant. This is a man who does Trump’s bidding, and I suspect that is the sole reason that he picked him, or at least the most important reason.”

Haney, the retired officer who supervised Vance, expressed frustration at attacks on his military record. His politics and comments are fair game, she said, but he volunteered to serve at a tense and dangerous time, and did so honorably, she added.

Haney said that when Vance returned to Cherry Point from Iraq, she selected him to be a representative to local media, even though his rank at the time, corporal, was junior to the officer typically assigned to the position. He was the “obvious choice,” she said, because he had shown he could learn on the fly and handle the responsibility, she recalled.

Vance, Haney said, appeared then to be a conservative and showed an interest in politics, noting that he also wanted to hear others talk about their own views.

“He probably always had a healthy dose of cynicism,” she said. “But he also had a good ability to assess, and he understood he had a limited view.”

‘He calls it like he sees it’

After his enlistment ended in 2007, Vance attended Ohio State University and then Yale Law School, where he sharpened his views of an America divided between liberal elites and more conservative masses, which he later explored in his book that vaulted him to fame.

Vance and his fellow Marines have kept in touch, shooting texts back and forth and exchanging holiday cards. A few attended his wedding in Kentucky in 2014. Three years later, Vance and several of the Cherry Point Marines gathered in North Carolina for a reunion, Keester said.

After Trump selected Vance as his running mate, Tiernan sent a congratulatory text. “Thanks dude,” he replied, Tiernan recalled.

Some of Vance’s friends see shades of his Marine Corps experience poking through in his foreign policy views, notably his aversion to how much money the United States spends abroad — particularly in Ukraine. In an April speech on the Senate floor, he said he realized after deploying to Iraq that the premise of that war was “a lie” and drew parallels to Washington’s military and financial support for Kyiv now.

“It’s the same exact talking points 20 years later,” Vance said, though the situation remains much different, with an American invasion in Iraq leading to a years-long insurgency and a Russian assault on Ukraine prompting the United States to deliver weapons and other resources without sending its own troops.

Vance has had a rocky debut as Trump’s running mate, drawing unwanted scrutiny to old, controversial comments. His critics, including some Republicans, have questioned whether Vance is the right running mate for Trump, and whether the Trump campaign spent enough time vetting him.

Vice President Harris, who has replaced President Biden atop the Democratic ticket, has assailed Vance for his shift toward Trump, claiming last month that he’d be “loyal only to Trump, not to our country.”

Vance responded during a campaign event days later in Michigan, a crucial battleground. “Well, I don’t know, Kamala,” he said. “I did serve in the United States Marine Corps and build a business. What the hell have you done other than collect a check?”

Tiernan said Vance’s observations as a young man have provided a vantage from which he can scrutinize the nation’s military and political leaders.

“He calls it like he sees it,” Tiernan said. “He can question it from a place of personal experience.”

Aaron Schaffer contributed to this report.

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