Pope Francis’ death fires the starting gun on what many see as a battle for the soul of the church – pitting those who want to continue his progressive reforms against a small but powerful group who want to reverse them.

Francis dramatically reshaped the group of prelates who will soon cast their votes for his successor in front of Michelangelo’s fresco of The Last Judgment in the Sistine Chapel.

Only cardinals under the age of 80 have a vote, and he chose most of them.

The first pontiff from the Global South, he decided to rip up the old, unwritten rule book which saw bishops of certain dioceses – most of them in Italy, Europe and the United States – automatically being made cardinals.

Instead, Francis sought to internationalize the College of Cardinals, giving red hats to a host of countries that had never been represented by a cardinal before, such as Tonga, Myanmar, Mongolia, the Central African Republic and Haiti.

His reforms made the body more representative of the global Catholic community, while the cardinals he selected, by and large, share his vision of the Church. All of this makes it more likely that the cardinals will choose a pope who represents continuity with Francis.

But conclaves can throw up surprises and, despite the reforms Francis made, there is a small, yet determined, minority unhappy with the most recent papacy, who will be looking for ways to change course.

Some of the opposition is well funded and the pre-conclave maneuvering has been going on for several years. These cardinals were concerned by Francis’s openness to giving communion to divorced and remarried couples, his welcome to LGBTQ+ Catholics and his strong criticism of what he described as “backwardist” Catholics wanting to take the Church back to a different way.

His critiques of economic inequality and focus on migrants’ rights and the climate crisis jarred with Catholics who wanted a pope to lay down the law on moral teachings.

While in hospital, the pope signed off on a three-year reform process, including how to give greater roles to women in the Catholic Church, including ordaining them as deacons, and the greater inclusion of laity in governance and decision making.

The reforms have been examined through a structure called the Synod of Bishops, which has been the primary vehicle through which the pope has implemented his pastoral agenda during his papacy. In recent years he’s sought to involve Catholics from across the globe in the renewal process.

The big question is how the next pope will continue this process, which is scheduled to continue until 2028.

The debate will likely heat up in earnest after Pope Francis’ funeral on Saturday, as attention then turns to the coming conclave – the start date for which has not been confirmed.

A group to watch carefully are the cardinals over the age of 80 who, while unable to vote, can play an important part in the vital pre-conclave meetings and informal discussions taking place in Roman trattorias or cardinals’ apartments.

A portion of these retired cardinals were not appointed by Francis, and some have opposed the direction in which the first Latin American pope tried to take the Church.

Cardinal Blase Cupich of Chicago and Cardinal Oswald Gracias, the retired archbishop of Bombay could both exercise this “kingmaker” role, as could Cardinal Christophe Pierre, the former papal ambassador to the United States or Cardinal Arthur Roche, a British Vatican official. Then there is Honduran Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga, who is hugely experienced, multilingual and will be supporting a candidate who is in keeping with Francis’ pastoral priorities.

Cardinal Marc Ouellet, the Canadian prelate who for years ran the Vatican’s office for appointing bishops, is also a figure likely to influence proceedings, as could Ghanian Cardinal Peter Turkson, who runs the pontifical academy of sciences, and Cardinal Timothy Dolan of New York. Some of the most critical voices come from among the retired cardinals such as Joseph Zen from Hong Kong, who has been a vocal critic of Francis and the Vatican’s diplomatic rapprochement with China.

There is also a sizeable number of cardinals who may wish to follow the Francis reforms but to do so with a pope who is more predictable and with less of the “shock and awe” of the late pontiff.

Open opposition to reforms

During the Francis pontificate, a group of cardinals took the highly unusual step of publicly challenging the pope over his decision to allow communion for divorced and remarried Catholics while, on two occasions, anonymous memos from unnamed cardinals strongly criticizing Francis were published.

The first was released under the pseudonym “Demos” and later turned out to have been written by Australian Cardinal George Pell, whom Francis had appointed as Vatican treasurer. The second, “Demos II,” accused the late pope of governing in an autocratic style and said the next pontiff must work for the “recovery and reestablishment of truths that have been slowly obscured or lost among many Christians.”

The forthcoming conclave will take place amid the glare of social media and the cardinals will need to make sure they vet candidates closely. One church historian has written about the possible “catastrophe” of a newly elected pope being forced to resign in an imagined scenario where allegations of failing to deal with a sexual abuse complaint suddenly surface online. This papal election takes place in an atmosphere where one allegation, if it sticks, could quickly torpedo a candidacy.

Then there are plenty of forces in the church seeking to influence the vote, many of them well funded, organized and with ties to the United States. In December 2024, a website, titled “The College of Cardinals Report,” was launched giving a breakdown on where the cardinals stand on blessing same-sex couples, ordaining women deacons and “Vatican-China secret accords.” The site comes from groups who are deeply opposed to the Francis pontificate.

And six years earlier, it emerged that a group in the United States was seeking more than $1 million to compile dossiers on candidates in an attempt to prevent a repeat of the conclave that elected Francis. When members of this group, “The Red Hat Report,” presented their project, they portrayed it as an attempt to improve governance and accountability within the Church and said “we may not have had Pope Francis” had it been in existence then.

For several years before the pope’s death, those opposed to his papacy had been discussing how to influence the next conclave. In 2020 two books, both titled “The Next Pope,” were published, both by authors known to be critics of Francis. One of them was even circulated among his peers by Dolan, the US cardinal, despite church laws that say prelates must not publicly discuss possible papal candidates.

A driving force behind some of the pre-conclave maneuvers was Pell, who had a formidable network of contacts and was politically skilled: the Australian prelate had reportedly pushed conservative Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő as a papal candidate.

After his conviction for child sex abuse was overturned by the High Court of Australia, Pell returned to Rome and took on an active role preparing for the next conclave. However, Pell’s death in January 2023 at the age of 81 left the opposition to Francis without an obvious leader.

Dividing lines

When the cardinals decide who should be elected pope, various factors will be taken into consideration. A potential dividing line might emerge over the pope’s decision to allow same-sex blessings, with several bishops in Africa and Eastern Europe strongly resisting this move. Would the African and Eastern European cardinals vote as a bloc for a candidate who is sympathetic to their views on this topic?

Francis’ choice of cardinals from very different parts of the world means that some of the papal electors do not know each other that well. Some also do not speak Italian, the working language of the Vatican (although English and Spanish are widely used). This would give an advantage to any candidate who has been able to get to know the cardinals well and has a role convening or leading them during the pre-conclave period.

In 2005, Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger’s guidance of the pre-conclave meetings, his linguistic abilities and the homily he preached at a Mass ahead of the vote played a key part in his election as Pope Benedict XVI.

After the action-packed Francis papacy, there may be other cardinals who, although supportive of the late pope, want someone who is less of a newsmaker and disruptor. They might opt to go for someone low-key.

Nevertheless, it seems likely that whoever is chosen as pope will be expected by Catholics across the world to continue with the major reforms that Francis began, and to try to continue to “institutionalize” the changes that he called for in the Catholic Church.

But don’t discount the determination of those seeking to find any way they can to slam the brakes on the Francis project.

Multiple people, including children, were injured after a car plowed through a crowd outside a school in eastern China on Tuesday, according to a report from a state-controlled broadcaster.

The car knocked down pedestrians and students outside the school in the city of Jinhua in the province of Zhejiang as classes were finishing for the day, a traffic radio program reported on Wednesday.

The number of people injured and the severity of their injuries is not yet known. It was unclear whether it was an accident or a deliberate act.

Sudden acts of violence targeting random members of the public, including school children, have surged across the country in recent years as economic growth stutters, unnerving a population long accustomed low rates of violent crime and ubiquitous surveillance.

In a video shared by Voice of Traffic, a radio program from state-owned Guangdong Radio and Television, a woman who witnessed Tuesday’s event said the car “just kept rolling down” and “a lot of people were crushed underneath it.”

“People were knocking on (the driver’s) window,” she added.

In a country where the ruling Communist Party prizes stability, officials have often carefully controlled or outright censored information following attacks on the public.

As of Wednesday afternoon, the central government had not commented on the incident and state broadcaster CCTV had not reported on it. Censors have also swooped in to moderate online discussion and remove videos posted to Chinese social media.

Many online users have taken to warning each other to be cautious of random acts of violence. People are said to be becoming more “desperate and unstable” and taking “revenge against society” amid China’s growing economic woes, which now also include the imposition of sky-high tariffs by US President Donald Trump.

In recent months, China has seen several cases of violence against the public. In November, 35 people were killed after a man rammed his car into crowds exercising at an outdoor sports center in southern China, in what was the deadliest known attack on the public in a decade. The same month, multiple students were also injured after a car rammed into people outside an elementary school in the southern province of Hunan.

Eight people were killed and 17 others injured in a mass stabbing at a college campus in eastern China, also in November. Other recent incidents include a stabbing attack near an elementary school in Beijing in October, which injured five people, including three children.

A 6.2-magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Istanbul on Wednesday leading to scenes of panic in the Turkish metropolis, officials said.

The quake occurred in the Sea of Marmara close to Silivri, which lies around 70 kilometers (40 miles) to the west of the city, and aftershocks are continuing, according to Turkey’s Disaster and Emergency Management Agency (AFAD)..

Istanbul authorities said there had been no loss of life but that 151 people were injured after “jumping from heights due to panic.”

No residential buildings were damaged, authorities added, but one abandoned building collapsed in the central Fatih District.

In February 2023, Turkey experienced one of its deadliest earthquakes in the last century, when a 7.8 magnitude quake struck 23 kilometers (14.2 miles) east of Nurdagi, in the southern Gaziantep province, at a depth of 24.1 kilometers (14.9 miles).

That quake also hit northern Syria, killing more 50,000 people across both countries.

With two key fault lines in its vicinity – the North Anatolian and the East Anatolian – Turkey is one of the most seismically active regions in the world, a reality that has amplified concern over Istanbul’s earthquake preparedness.

Once the capital of the Byzantine and the Ottoman empires, the densely populated city is home to around 16 million people. It lies precariously close to the North Anatolian fault, which passes within 20 kilometers (12.4 miles) of Istanbul and through the Sea of Marmara, according to the Geological Society of London.

Historically, that fault has led to several disastrous earthquakes, including a 7.6 magnitude quake that struck the nearby city of Izmit in 1999, killing over 17,000 people, and displacing an estimated 500,000 others.

An earthquake occurs when the Earth’s crust shifts abruptly, with energy radiated out as seismic waves and shaking that can violently impact people, buildings and infrastructure.

Those waves and factors related to the shifting ground determine an earthquake’s magnitude, as measured through 10 on the scale most commonly used to describe quakes. An earthquake that measures between 6 and 6.9 is classified as “strong.”

This story has been updated with additional developments.

Britain’s Prince Louis turned 7 on Wednesday, and a new photo has been released to mark the occasion.

The image was published on the social media accounts of Louis’ parents, Prince William and Catherine, Princess of Wales.

“Wishing Prince Louis a very Happy 7th Birthday!” the caption reads.

The photo, taken by British photographer Josh Shinner, shows Louis sitting on a log, wearing a collared shirt, green V-neck sweater and jeans.

His relaxed smile reveals that he is missing two front teeth.

The photo was also posted on the royal family’s social media accounts, with the message “Happy Birthday to Prince Louis!”

Louis is the youngest of William and Catherine’s three children and is fourth in line to the British throne.

It has become a tradition for the Waleses to mark their children’s birthdays by sharing a new image. Many of the past portraits have been taken by Kate, who is an enthusiastic amateur photographer.

However, in a handful of instances, renowned professional photographers, including Mario Testino, Chris Jackson and Millie Pilkington, have been behind the camera.

A cardinal convicted of financial crimes by the Vatican is claiming he can take part in the forthcoming conclave despite being listed as a “non-elector.”

Cardinal Giovanni Angelo Becciu, once one of the most powerful figures in the Vatican, was ordered by Pope Francis in 2020 to resign the “rights and privileges” of a cardinal after he became embroiled in a Vatican financial scandal.

The Sardinian cardinal previously held the position of “sostituto” (“substitute”) in the Holy See’s Secretariat of State – a papal chief of staff equivalent.

The role offered Becciu walk-in privileges to see the pope and he commanded huge authority across the church’s central government. He was later moved to a position running the Vatican’s saint-making department.

Becciu was convicted of embezzlement and fraud in 2023 and handed a five-and-a-half-year jail sentence. He is the first cardinal to be convicted by the Vatican’s criminal court.

But the cardinal, who has always maintained his innocence, launched an appeal that’s currently still under consideration. He’s allowed to continue to live in a Vatican apartment while this process is underway.

While the Holy See press office has listed him as a “non-elector,” Becciu told a Sardinian newspaper on Tuesday that “there was no explicit will to exclude me from the conclave nor a request for my explicit renunciation in writing.”

The decision of his participation will likely be decided by the dean of the College of Cardinals, Giovanni Battista Re, and Cardinal Pietro Parolin, who will oversee the conclave proceedings inside the Sistine Chapel.

The investigation into Becciu centered on the Holy See’s disastrous investment in a London property that saw the church lose tens of millions of dollars.

During his papacy, Francis sought to clean up Vatican finances and changed the law to ensure that Becciu, as a cardinal, could be judged by a Vatican tribunal of judges.

Although Becciu lost his rights and privileges as a cardinal, he was never technically removed from the College of Cardinals. He is allowed to take part in the pre-conclave discussions.

Only cardinals under the age of 80 are allowed to vote in a papal election. As it currently stands, there are 135 eligible cardinals who will participate in conclave. Becciu is 76 and still eligible when it comes to his age.