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As he campaigns in one of the nation’s most competitive U.S. Senate races, Montana Republican Tim Sheehy recounts how he started an aerial firefighting business in his barn and built it into a publicly traded company on the front lines of increasingly dangerous wildfires. “That’s a success story,” he said in a June television interview.

Reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission in recent months tell a different story about Bridger Aerospace, known for its “Super Scooper” planes that can remove up to 1,400 gallons at a time from a body of water to dump on a nearby wildfire.

Bridger is facing a cash crunch so dire that there is “substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue,” according to public filings that show the company lost $77.4 million last year and $20.1 million in the first three months of 2024. Several directors have left, including one who flagged concerns about internal auditing, as an unusually slow wildfire season in 2023 put the company at risk of defaulting on its debt.

And then last month, Sheehy said he couldn’t devote enough time to running the company and resigned — a move that Bridger, which had promoted his key role in “every facet” of the business, previously said would happen if he was elected to the Senate.

“The business has disappointed,” said Vince Martin, a North Carolina-based investment analyst and blogger who has examined the SEC filings. “As a result, they don’t have a ton of room for error.”

In response to questions about the company’s finances, the Sheehy campaign released a statement saying, “Tim is proud of the successful company he created, the jobs he created, and he is proud to be an active firefighting pilot protecting our communities and our public lands.”

Bridger, in a statement, noted steady revenue growth at the “fast-growing, ambitious company” over the past five years, adding that it “has materially enhanced the composition and capabilities of its board of directors to lead the company in its next stage of growth.”

The company’s struggles have received little national attention even as Sheehy competes in a closely watched contest that could determine which party controls the Senate. Voters in the deep-red state of Montana heavily back former president Donald Trump — who endorsed Sheehy earlier this year — but have elected Democratic incumbent Jon Tester three times.

“He better win,” Trump said Friday night at a rally with Sheehy just 11 miles from Bridger’s headquarters at the Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport.

Sheehy, 38, has attracted national support largely on the strength of his biography as a war hero and entrepreneur, but his first campaign for public office has exposed some potential vulnerabilities.

Sheehy, an ex-Navy Seal who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, has faced scrutiny over an incident involving a firearm in Montana’s Glacier National Park in 2015. Documents show Sheehy told a park ranger at the time that he accidentally shot himself in his right arm and the wound was treated at a hospital. Sheehy told The Washington Post he did not shoot himself but had lied to the ranger, a federal law enforcement officer, to protect him and his platoon-mates from a potential military investigation into an older bullet wound he said he got in Afghanistan in 2012. He has talked about being shot in the arm in combat while campaigning.

He has also emphasized his business experience, telling voters that he has signed “the front of the paycheck, not just the back” while condemning Congress for the ballooning national debt.

“I’m a business owner,” Sheehy said during a March campaign event. “If my business isn’t doing well, I don’t get paid.”

Yet amid Bridger’s significant losses, Sheehy has received millions of dollars in compensation. He received a $2.3 million bonus on top of a $149,000 base salary in 2023, according to SEC filings, and a bonus of $4.4 million and a $450,000 base salary in 2022, as the company lost $42.1 million. Sheehy received additional income leasing two planes to Bridger and co-owning a business that provides flight training, SEC filings show. Sheehy also sold a plane to the company for $3.9 million; the filings don’t detail if he turned a profit or loss.

“That itself is not wrong, but it doesn’t look great,” said Dhierin-Perkash Bechai, an analyst at AeroAnalysis International, which covers the aerospace and defense industries, referring to Sheehy’s bonuses and additional income from Bridger. “While the company is bleeding cash, Sheehy is still making money.”

Other experts who track the company are more optimistic. Austin Moeller, a New York-based analyst with Canaccord Genuity who said he has met with Sheehy and other executives while researching Bridger, noted the forecast for a busier fire season in 2024. Bridger is cutting costs and expanding operations into Canada and Europe, he said, while lenders have been willing to work with the fledgling public company. Bridger also has multiyear contracts with federal agencies totaling $226 million.

“Tim did a good job as CEO running the early-stage public company, and the current management has the right experience,” Moeller said. “If they need more capital, they have an agreement in place to raise that, so I don’t think there’s any risk of the company going bankrupt.”

At the Friday rally with Trump, Sheehy said he had created hundreds of jobs and called Bridger “a Montana success story.” He described how he personally flies planes, saying “Just last week I was out water bombing, protecting your land.”

***

Sheehy founded Bridger Aerospace in late 2014, after a celebrated Naval career in which he was awarded a Purple Heart and a Bronze Star. He and his wife were starting a new life on 60 acres they purchased near Bozeman, Mont. Sheehy had $300,000 in savings and $100,000 from his parents to settle in Montana and start a new business with a handful of fellow veterans, according to his memoir, “Mudslingers.”

“I can honestly say that the goal was not to become multimillionaires,” he wrote. “The goal was to create a viable business in a region of the country where we wanted to live and to provide jobs that would support the people of that region while doing work that mattered in some way.”

Aerial firefighting seemed promising at a time when wildfires were ravaging the West. Private equity giant Blackstone became a crucial investor as Bridger sought to expand, and by 2022, the company had bought six Super Scoopers, which Sheehy has called “the AK-47 of aerial firefighting planes.”

Sheehy and his business partners also launched a drone company, Ascent Vision Technologies. A defense contractor bought Ascent for about $350 million in 2020, an “incredible” boost to its stakeholders, Sheehy wrote in his book. He personally netted about $75 million, Bloomberg reported.

Sheehy and his executive team started making aggressive moves to grow Bridger. In 2022, the company reached an agreement with Gallatin County, Mont., where it is based, to get access to the municipal bond market. The $160 million raised was slated to pay for two new airplane hangars and to expand the company’s fleet of Super Scoopers, which cost about $30 million each. The deal also came with an 11.5 percent interest rate and a requirement that the company have at least $8 million in cash on hand, public records show.

The company took another chance by merging with an investment corporation in early 2023 to go public. The merger could have added another $323 million to the balance sheet, according to a presentation to investors.

Instead, the merger was an early signal of the challenges ahead, costing the company nearly $17 million, public filings show.

Sheehy downplayed the result in a podcast interview, saying, “We didn’t have an acute need for any of the capital. We don’t need it to run the business. We don’t need it to grow organically.”

Six months later, director Debra Coleman quit the board, effective immediately — “a result of the functioning of the Board’s Audit Committee,” she wrote in a brief resignation letter in September, referring to a panel that typically reviews financial disclosures for accuracy.

Bridger responded that board members “continue to have full confidence in the governance and effective functioning of the Audit Committee Company,” filings show. Coleman, who had retired as a managing director in investment banking at Bank of America Securities, Inc., declined to speak publicly about her decision to leave.

One month after Coleman’s departure, the company canceled a public offering and plans to buy an aircraft company after a sharp decline in its stock price. Those setbacks punctuated the slowest fire season in more than two decades, according to data from the National Interagency Fire Center. Bridger’s annual report for 2023 reflected significant challenges: more than $211 million in debt, the possibility of default on the $160 million bond deal and a violation of the terms of a $12.9 million bank loan.

“Our liquidity position raises substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern,” the report said. “We have incurred significant losses since inception, and we may not be able to achieve, maintain or increase profitability or positive cash flow.”

In another potentially troubling sign, the company said it had “identified material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting.” In other words, the company could not guarantee that its books were accurate, though Moeller said this disclaimer is not unusual among small, newly public companies getting their accounting up to speed.

In a March call with investors, Sheehy touted the company’s record-setting revenue of $67 million in 2023 despite an unusually slow fire season. “While each fire season has its own seasonal and regional fluctuations and complexions, the overall trend of larger wildfires and longer fire seasons continues,” he said.

When Montana-based media outlets covered Bridger’s poor financial performance, the company pushed back at what it called “politically motivated attacks.” Bridger said the media was taking corporate statements out of context and exaggerating the risks and disclaimers it is legally required to put in SEC filings.

“By highlighting these losses and emphasizing risk factors in Bridger’s public filings, these reports do not paint an accurate picture of the future of Bridger Aerospace,” the company said in May. “The fact is that Bridger has been a Montana success story.”

But in another indicator of the company’s hunger for cash, Bridger raised $9.2 million in April by selling common stock to directors and executive officers — a quicker and less expensive way to raise money than selling to the public, analysts following the company said.

Two directors, Todd Hirsch, a Blackstone senior managing director, and McAndrew Rudisill, Bridger’s chief investment officer, resigned on May 31 from Bridger’s board. The departures were “not due to any disagreement with the Company on any matters relating to the Company’s operations policies or practices,” according to an SEC filing.

A Blackstone spokesperson said of Hirsch’s departure: “It is ordinary course for Blackstone to wind down its board representation when it only has an older, small, minority stake remaining in a company.” Rudisill did not respond to requests from The Post for comment.

Sheehy stepped down from the company on July 1, saying, “This exceptional team deserves a fully focused CEO during its busy fire season.” The new executive chairman said the board “has been preparing his possible departure,” though company filings had previously said Sheehy “will resign as Chief Executive Officer if he is elected to U.S. Senate.”

Sheehy, who is now campaigning full time, has a net worth spanning $102 million to $297 million, according to an analysis of his financial disclosure filed in June. He owns a home in Bozeman that property records show is valued at about $2.5 million, a 20,000-acre cattle ranch, rental property in Big Sky, Mont., and cabins in Polson, Mont.

The company’s July 1 report to the SEC notes the continued pressure to raise cash and the purchase of another aerospace company for $17.5 million. It also addresses the “material weaknesses” noted in the annual report, saying Bridger did not misstate its overall financial position.

Moeller says early reports of this year’s wildfire season show a dramatic increase over 2023. The company has also secured an “ATM agreement” with an investment banking firm that allows it to issue up to $100 million in stock.

Bridger, though, has less than $8 million in unrestricted cash as of the end of March — in violation of the requirements of the bond deal — and has reported that it might not be able to meet the minimum cash threshold over the next 12 months. Stock sold 18 months ago at $10 per share closed Friday at $3.27.

Paying down debt, buying four additional Super Scoopers and expanding operations outside the United States are key to the company’s survival, Martin said.

“They’ve simply got to start generating cash,” Martin said. “That’s going to be tough — but it’s possible, particularly if they get a strong fire season … It’s a very narrow path right now.”

Liz Goodwin and Aaron Schaffer contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

Former president Donald Trump predicted Thursday that abortion is “going to be a very small issue” this election, portraying it as a settled matter.

“I think the abortion issue has been taken down many notches,” he said during a news conference at his gilded Mar-a-Lago estate. “I don’t think it’s a big factor anymore.”

But over a thousand miles away, Democrats were betting on the opposite.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, standing beside Vice President Kamala Harris as part of the newly minted Democratic presidential ticket, forecasted that Republicans would do more to restrict abortion nationwide than they were letting on.

“They will ban abortion across this country no matter what Congress says,” Walz warned while speaking at the United Auto Workers Local 900 union hall in Wayne, Mich.

“That’s my choice,” a woman in the crowd shouted.

“Damn right it is,” Walz responded.

In a string of events in battleground states across the country this week, Harris and Walz riled up Democratic supporters with similar one-liners, calling the patchwork of abortion restrictions in various states “Trump’s abortion bans” and promising that “we’ll fight for a woman’s right to choose.” The mention of reproductive health care in any fashion stood in stark contrast to the message from the Republican ticket. Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance (Ohio), held campaign events alongside those by Harris and Walz in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and made little mention of abortion or reproductive health care.

The disparate approach to the issue on the campaign trail highlights the complicated politics of the moment. Republican voters are largely supportive of some abortion restrictions, though there are disagreements on the details, and Trump has taken credit for the Supreme Court overturning federal protections for abortion, saying it was a popular decision. But most Americans say the 2022 Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade was bad for the country. Abortion rights advocates have won battles against antiabortion candidates and ballot referendums since the decision, and Democrats won midterm victories in campaigns that focused heavily on reproductive rights.

Democrats believe they can once again harness that energy to help them keep the White House. But the Trump campaign is betting on a message that voters in individual states now get to decide how to address the issue.

“Has Trump found a way to defuse the issue by saying everybody wanted us to give this back to the states for 50 years, which might not be factual?” Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School poll, said in an interview. “He’s trying.”

Harris has placed blame for the harshest bans on abortions on Trump since the Supreme Court overturned Roe. But the Democratic message around abortion has also expanded to broadly include all reproductive health care, motivated in part by an Alabama Supreme Court ruling earlier this year that sparked outrage and debate over the use of in vitro fertilization. On the campaign trail this week, Walz brought up his own family’s experience using IVF to conceive his children, saying the issue is personal for him.

Walz on Friday described going through “years” of fertility treatments with his wife, and the devastation of learning the treatments had failed. His eldest daughter was conceived via IVF, and the process inspired her name, Hope, he has said.

“So when Vice President Kamala Harris and I talk about freedom, we’re very clear: We mean the freedom to make your own health-care decisions,” Walz told cheering Arizona voters.

At the same time, Trump and Vance have spent little time discussing reproductive health care with voters. Vance did not bring it up in the past two weeks of speeches in five battleground states. And Trump at a news conference Thursday said he believes the issue of abortion bans is resolved because it is being decided on by states — but he also suggested he was open to revoking access to a key abortion pill.

“I’ve done what every Democrat and every Republican wanted to have done,” Trump said. “And we brought that issue back to the states.”

Later in the news conference, Trump was asked if he would direct the Food and Drug Administration to “revoke access” to mifepristone, a medication used for abortions, and he did not reject the idea. (His campaign later said he didn’t hear the question and maintained the issue is settled because the Supreme Court declined to limit mifepristone access, even though that decision has no bearing on whether a future administration could restrict the drug.)

Although Republicans have traditionally advocated for a federal abortion ban, the party has retreated from that position under Trump, striking the language from its party platform at the Republican National Convention last month. Trump has said the issue should be determined by states and has added that he would not sign a federal bill banning or restricting abortion.

About 1 in 8 voters rank abortion as the most important issue for their vote in 2024, according to a KFF poll conducted in February. Those voters were mostly women, young and Black, cohorts that could be critical in this election.

Asked about the messaging and concerns of voters who rank abortion as a major issue, the Trump campaign pointed to the other issues they are focused on, mainly the economy and immigration.

“Kamala Harris is the most unpopular Vice President in history and doesn’t have any policy plans to fix the top issues voters care about, such as ending inflation and securing the border,” Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. “President Trump has been very clear — he supports the rights of states to make decisions on abortion.”

Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said abortion is likely to drive turnout, especially women and young voters. She pointed to the string of ballot referendums, elections and special elections in which voters have sided with fewer restrictions on abortions or stopped harsher bans from passing.

“This is a loser for Republicans,” Kamarck said.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

On Saturday, Hawaii will end voting in its House and Senate primary elections, where Democratic incumbents are expected to easily win their races and are likely to defeat their challengers in November in this solidly blue state.

Leading the top of the ballot in the Democratic primary for Senate is Sen. Mazie Hirono (D), who is favored to win a third term. Hirono was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2013, and before that represented Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District for six years. She will face salesman Clyde Lewman, who ran in the 2022 gubernatorial primary, and former systems engineer Ron Curtis, who ran against her in 2018 as the Republican candidate for the Senate seat.

Hirono has raised more than $4 million, data from the Federal Election Commission shows. Curtis and Lewman had not reported to the FEC that they had raised any campaign funds.

The Republican primary for the Senate seat is a crowded race with six candidates, including former state representative Bob McDermott. McDermott was a member of Hawaii’s House of Representatives from 1996 to 2002 and then again from 2012 to 2022, when he ran against the incumbent, Sen. Brian Schatz (D), in the general election for the U.S. Senate seat.

Of the six Republican candidates on the ballot, only McDermott and Adriel Lam, a veteran who ran for a state Senate seat in 2022, had raised funds as of Thursday evening, FEC data shows. The other candidates are paralegal Melba Amaral, attorney Paul Dolan, attorney Emmanuel Tipon and Arturo Reyes, who has previously run for a U.S. Senate seat as a nonpartisan candidate.

In Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District, incumbent Rep. Ed Case, who has held the seat since 2019, faces Cecil Hale in the Democratic primary. Case first served in Congress from 2002 to 2007, representing the state’s 2nd Congressional District. In the Republican primary, Patrick Largey is running unopposed.

In Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District, both Rep. Jill Tokuda (D), who is seeking her second term, and Republican Steve Bond are running unopposed in their primaries. In 2022, Bond had an unsuccessful run in Hawaii’s Republican primary for a Senate seat.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

Late one night in July 2022 when she was House speaker, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) got word that House Republicans had pulled support for a bipartisan bill to reenergize America’s semiconductor industry.

Some liberal Democrats were also squeamish about providing corporate welfare, so some of her advisers suggested pulling the bill from the next day’s schedule.

“Let me do it my way,” Pelosi recalled, giving instructions to her staff. “Go tell the Republicans to go to hell. We’re going to go without them. We’re going to go without them.”

Not a single Democrat voted against the bill. Once it was clearly passing and heading to President Joe Biden’s desk for his signature, a couple dozen Republicans voted for what would become a popular piece of legislation.

Now the former House speaker, Pelosi recounted that story in a 100-minute interview Wednesday with a half-dozen veteran reporters and columnists who chronicled her 20-year reign as the Democratic leader. The long sit-down was part of her book tour promoting “The Art of Power,” which includes many of these tales of her rise, then fall, and then rise back up to the most powerful post in Congress.

The book, which she started planning many years ago, serves as a lesson in how she wielded power more effectively than most of the other 55 speakers — all White men. It also published just in the wake of another illustration of Pelosi’s continuing influence, even as she has rejoined the rank-and-file without even a seat on a legislative committee.

Many media appearances over the past week have focused on Pelosi’s behind-the-scenes role in helping advise fellow Democrats in their effort to push Biden to step aside from his reelection effort.

While she says she did not call anyone, Pelosi acknowledged receiving “hundreds” of messages from concerned Democrats. She believes the outpouring of support for Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign has validated the actions to persuade Biden to step aside, but it’s left her more than four-decade-friendship with the president upended.

“History’s in a hurry. We’re right in the center of it all here. At some point, I will come to terms with my own piece, my own role in this,” she told reporters Wednesday.

Pelosi intended to write this book many years ago and focus on four key issues that framed her first stint as House speaker: her battles with China over human rights abuses; her opposition to the Iraq War; her critical help to the Bush administration in passing the 2008 financial relief package; and passing the 2010 Affordable Care Act.

But by the time she got around to writing after leaving her leadership post at the end of 2022, Pelosi had experienced the Donald Trump presidency, the 2021 Capitol insurrection and the brutal attack on her husband in October 2022 — all topics that had to be addressed.

In the preface she writes about “Know Your Why,” a slogan she has cited for years as advice to those who want to run for elective office so that they can be grounded by the right principles in the job. Her “why” has always been a three-word mantra — “for the children” — signifying leaving the planet cleaner and safer with a bottom-up economy.

But throughout the Wednesday discussion, and after her actions last month, it is clear that Pelosi has a new “why” in this epilogue phase of her career: defeating Trump.

She pounded a table nine times as she explained that her motivation in opposing Biden’s continued campaign was solely about stopping Trump. “My goal in life was that that man would never set foot in the White House again,” she said.

There’s an echo in her second stint as speaker, which began with the last two years of Trump’s presidency, of her first tenure, beginning with George W. Bush’s final two years in the Oval Office.

Each of those congressional terms, 2007-09 and 2019-21, included strong clashes with the GOP president but then also included major bipartisan deals on global crises that ended up being a political burden for Democrats and not Republicans.

In the fall of 2008 as the financial system collapsed, Pelosi’s Democrats provided the vast majority of votes for the $700 billion bailout, stabilizing the system and avoiding an economic depression. But once Obama took office with massive Democratic majorities, Republicans blamed his administration and Pelosi for the lingering Great Recession and its high unemployment.

Voters recoiled as the titans of Wall Street avoided any criminal liability as millions of homes were lost and the unemployment rate topped 10 percent. “Nobody paid a price,” Pelosi lamented.

Obama officials were unsuccessful in creating a campaign to sell their legislative achievements — including a nearly $800 billion stimulus that cut taxes on the middle class — and it all got lumped into bitter feelings about the economy and the bank bailout.

“I truly believe that was why we lost in 2010,” Pelosi said, a midterm drubbing that lost 63 seats and handed the GOP the majority for eight years.

In 2020, fresh off impeaching Trump over his Ukraine actions, Pelosi again worked with the GOP administration when the coronavirus pandemic killed millions and shuttered parts of the global economy. Democrats again provided most of the votes for several relief packages that tallied almost $3 trillion — even sending direct cash payments to taxpayers that were signed by none other than Trump.

Biden won in November 2020 and Democrats, with majorities in both the House and Senate, set out to clean up the Trump administration’s disjointed handling of the pandemic — beginning with a nearly $2 trillion recovery package.

Month by month, with no effective pushback from Biden and Democrats, voters came to place more blame on the new administration for a crisis that started under the GOP’s watch. Republicans won back the House majority in 2022, this time by a narrow four-seat margin, but they have since used that power to boost Trump at almost every turn.

Pelosi resigned from leadership and returned to life in the rank-and-file, working across the street in a House office building for the first time since 2001.

Pelosi will attend the Democratic National Convention this month in Chicago with no real responsibilities — as leader of her caucus she was the co-chair for the previous five conventions — other than a likely speaking role.

Her main political role these days is still raising money and giving advice when asked by others. No speaker in modern times has left the post and stuck around this long in office, but Pelosi rather enjoys the freedom and dispensing wisdom that sounds like a mix of a crime boss and local party activist.

For dealing with Republicans who made fun of the attack on her husband, she said: “Treat everyone as a friend but know who your friends are.”

But a few unnamed GOP lawmakers received the bluntest of messages. “Some of them,” Pelosi said she replied to them, “I just say: ‘We’re out to get you, you’re dead.’”

When it comes to her discussions with Biden, she returned to a motto that former California governor Jerry Brown taught her when she chaired the state Democratic Party in the early 1980s: “Those who talk don’t know and those who know don’t talk.”

She believes Democrats have essentially missed their window to sell the legislative accomplishments, such as the semiconductor plan and the infrastructure bill, ahead of the November elections.

She is advising the Harris campaign team to focus on future proposals such as the expanded child tax credit that expired.

“Really, if I could do one thing, it would be child care. It’ll make the biggest difference in our economy,” she said.

Her “why,” at least through November, is squarely on defeating Trump, whom she called “unpatriotic” and whom she compared to fascist regimes for his attempts to destroy faith in independent media.

She rejected the thoughts from book reviewers that her book title was meant as a tweak on Trump’s original best-selling memoir in the 1980s, “The Art of the Deal.”

“Nothing that I do has anything to do with him, except his downfall,” Pelosi said.

She treasures some friendships with GOP elder statesmen. George W. Bush is a legitimate friend who hosted her at an event early last year, and Pelosi still hasn’t cooked the steaks that Elizabeth Dole sent her three years ago after she visited Bob Dole before he died.

But she’s got no time for new friendships with younger Republicans who like Trump. Pelosi recalled several of the first-term Republicans from New York asking her to attend events tied to their shared Italian heritage.

“When you’re not there, maybe I’ll come,” Pelosi responded to the crew, several of whom are in swing districts that will determine the majority.

She declined their pleas.

“I do not like you. I’m out to get you, I’m out to get you,” she said. “Your defeat is my goal.”

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

Tim Walz took a page out of Donald Trump’s playbook at his Friday night rally with Vice President Kamala Harris: He bragged about the size of their crowds.

In Philadelphia, the new Democratic ticket packed a 10,000-person arena. A similar crowd showed up in Eau Claire, Wis. “On Wednesday, the largest crowd of the campaign showed up in Detroit, Michigan,” Walz boasted.

Then the vice-presidential pick beamed out at the audience in suburban Phoenix — more than 15,000 people, Democrats said — and delivered the punchline with a big grin.

“It’s not as if anybody cares about crowd sizes or anything,” Walz said.

For years Trump, the GOP nominee for president, has been the one boasting about how many people he could pack into a venue. Now Democrats are eager to play the crowd game, too. With enthusiasm surging for their new presidential ticket, they have spent the week needling Trump on a topic he famously obsesses over.

Trump has pushed back with tallies of his own — often inflated.

“I’ve spoken to the biggest crowds,” Trump said at a news conference this week. “Nobody’s spoken to crowds bigger than me.”

He bragged, implausibly, that his Washington speech on Jan. 6, 2021 — just before a pro-Trump mob stormed the U.S. Capitol — drew more people than the famous “I Have a Dream” speech by civil rights leader Martin Luther King, Jr.

Trump returned to the subject Friday night at his rally in Bozeman, Mont., hours after Walz made his jabs. He mocked the recent attention on Harris: “They said, ‘Oh, she had a big crowd, oh what a crowd’ — the press is talking about the crowd.”

He pointed to his own massive rallies. What about the tens of thousands of people that came to a rally in New Jersey? What about his event last year in Pickens, S. C.? (Trump claimed 82,000 people; local officials pegged a 2023 rally at about 50,000). What about the “Front Row Joes” who show up at every event?

“We have so many people,” Trump said.

A Trump campaign spokeswoman also dismissed Democrats’ newfound interest in large audiences. “Isn’t it funny how the Democrats and Fake News want to talk about crowd sizes now after they have ignored and downplayed the unprecedented and massive crowds that President Trump has been pulling for eight years,” said spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt, who suggested that Harris’s use of celebrity performances at some rallies amounts to bribery.

Harris campaign spokesperson Sarafina Chitika said Trump has been “rage-Truthing about our grassroots enthusiasm and melting down publicly, both online and in front of cameras” while Harris and Walz hit battleground states.

“Donald is welcome to keep doing his thing — our campaign will be putting in the work it will take to win this election,” Chitika said.

Trump has always treated crowd size as an all-important metric. His big 2016 rallies were an early sign of the loyal base that propelled him to the White House and a point of contrast with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Trump began his presidency with the false claim that more than 1 million people showed up for his inauguration; his then-press secretary Sean Spicer dug in to declare, incorrectly, that Trump drew “the largest audience to ever witness an inauguration — period — both in person and around the globe.”

Facing Joe Biden in 2020 and again in 2024, Trump loved to mock Biden for holding smaller events and his campaign delighted in sharing pictures of extra seats at Democratic gatherings. At rallies, Trump often accused the media of ignoring his crowd sizes and demanded that the cameras pan around. His supporters sometimes pointed to the scale of Trump’s rallies to support their false claims that Trump actually won the 2020 election.

Facing pressure this summer to drop out after a devastating debate performance in June, Biden began to point to crowd size: “How many people draw crowds like I did today?” he told ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos.

Stephanopoulos responded: “I don’t think you want to play the crowd game. Donald Trump can draw big crowds.”

Now — with Biden out of the race and Harris finding momentum — Democrats are leaning into the subject, jabbing at Trump and reveling in comparisons to the enthusiasm once generated by Barack Obama.

On social media, Harris’s campaign was eager to compare their big Friday night rally in Glendale, Ariz. to a recent Trump event at a smaller venue in Phoenix. The campaign also jabbed at Trump’s Friday event in Bozeman. “Meanwhile at @realdonaldtrump’s rally …,” Harris’s campaign wrote on X over a video clip showing empty Trump seats — ignoring the fact that Trump was set to speak later than Harris and that many people were still filtering in. The roughly 8,500-person venue in Montana was ultimately packed and rowdy.

Leavitt, the Trump spokeswoman, jabbed back at the Harris team Saturday by noting that black drapes covered some seating at the arena in Arizona.

In interviews, Trump supporters in Bozeman brushed off the show of force by Harris this week. Warren Armstrong, 73, blamed “the fake news” when asked about Harris’s crowds and said, “They make things look great.”

Onstage, Trump vented at the media, too. He claimed media outlets ignored the size of his New Jersey crowd — though many did cover it. “They don’t talk about it because they’re fake,” Trump said.

In Arizona, Julie Jonuska, 63, a yoga therapist from Scottsdale, said Harris “has created more excitement, for sure,” gesturing around the Desert Diamond Arena where thousands of supporters still lingered while Harris and Walz worked the rope line Friday.

Jonuska — who wore a button of Harris’s face reading “say it to my face,” the line Harris deployed at her Atlanta rally daring Trump to debate her — said she believes Harris can reach an audience that Biden could not, saying that “now Trump’s the old man.”

“The crowd is your everyday normal people,” she said. “It’s about the people, and not about one person, like Trump is the party of Trump.”

Knowles reported from Bozeman, Mont. Dylan Wells in Glendale, Ariz., contributed to this report.

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Donald Trump’s presidential campaign said on Saturday that it has been the victim of a foreign hack, after the campaign received questions from news organizations about a lengthy vetting document on vice-presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) sent to the outlets.

“These documents were obtained illegally from foreign sources hostile to the United States, intended to interfere with the 2024 election and sow chaos throughout our Democratic process,” Steven Cheung, a campaign spokesman, said in a statement.

Cheung pointed to a report released Friday by Microsoft in which the company said it had discovered evidence that Iranian hackers had tried to break into the email account of a “high-ranking official” on a U.S. presidential campaign in June.

The company did not publicly identify the campaign or confirm whether it believed the hack had been successful. A person familiar with Microsoft’s work confirmed that the report’s reference was to the Trump campaign.

Cheung did not disclose whether the campaign has been in contact with Microsoft and did not offer evidence for its assertion that the documents were hacked by Iran. But he said in a statement that the timing of the episode described by Microsoft coincides with Trump’s selection of Vance as his running mate.

People familiar with the matter said the campaign separately concluded earlier this summer its email system had been breached but did not disclose it publicly or to law enforcement. The people said some officials were told to take more protective measures on their email accounts. At the time, campaign officials communicated to others that they weren’t sure who hacked the emails. The people spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the internal matter.

Politico was first to report the statement from Trump’s campaign Saturday. The news outlet reported that it had received messages starting July 22 from an anonymous sender offering proprietary information about the Trump campaign, including a copy of a vetting document related to Vance.

On Thursday, The Washington Post was also sent a 271-page document about Vance from a sender who called himself Robert and used an AOL email account. Dated Feb. 23 and labeled “privileged & confidential,” the document highlighted potential political vulnerabilities for the first-term senator. Two people familiar with the document confirmed it was authentic and was commissioned by the campaign from Brand Woodward, a law firm that represents a number of prominent Trump advisers in investigations by state and federal authorities.

The document drew from publicly available information, including past news reports and interviews with the senator. The campaign commissioned several reports of other candidates, too, the advisers said.

The sender would not speak on the telephone with a Post reporter but indicated they had access to additional information, including internal campaign emails and documents related to Trump’s court cases.

“Consider me as an anonymous resource who has access to djtfp24 campaign. There are [sic] other stuff too, that I can send you, if this content is in your field of interest,” the sender wrote in an email to the reporter.

“I hope you understand my limitations and my vulnerable position in the campaign,” the sender added.

On Friday, Microsoft said a group run by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had compromised the email account of a former adviser to a U.S. presidential campaign and used that address in June to contact a senior official who was still engaged in the campaign. That email contained a link to a site that could have allowed Iran to intercept the target’s other emails, Microsoft said. A spokesman for the company said it would not reveal whether the attack had succeeded and declined to comment Saturday.

A spokesperson for the National Security Council said the Biden administration “strongly condemns any foreign government or entity who attempts to interfere in our electoral process or seeks to undermine confidence in our democratic institutions.”

In a statement, the FBI said the agency was aware of the media reports and had no comment. A spokesperson for Iran’s permanent mission to the United Nations did not respond to a request for comment.

U.S. intelligence officials said in July that Iran is working to stoke societal discord in the United States and undermine Trump’s bid to regain the White House, a repeat of Iranian efforts in 2020.

Prosecutors in New York last month also charged a Pakistani man with ties to Iran in a murder-for-hire plot to assassinate a politician or U.S. government official on American soil. The alleged Iranian-backed plot, however, had raised concerns about Trump’s safety in the weeks before the attempted assassination in July, according to U.S. officials familiar with the investigation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal discussions.

In his statement, Cheung referenced reports of that alleged plot: “The Iranians know that President Trump will stop their reign of terror just like he did in his first four years in the White House. Any media or news outlet reprinting documents or internal communications are doing the bidding of America’s enemies and doing exactly what they want.”

A spokesman for Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Cheung’s statement is a marked change in tone from the 2016 campaign, when Trump repeatedly touted internal Democratic emails and other documents released by WikiLeaks that U.S. officials suspected had been stolen by Russia.

“I love WikiLeaks,” Trump said while campaigning against Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in October 2016, after the organization had posted online tens of thousands of emails hacked from the account of Clinton’s campaign chairman.

“This WikiLeaks stuff is unbelievable,” he said two days later, as the site posted daily troves of internal Clinton campaign emails. “It tells you the inner heart; you gotta read it.”

Thomas Rid, professor of strategic studies at Johns Hopkins University, called hacks and leaks — similar to what happened in 2016 and to what the Trump campaign has alleged took place with the Vance report — the “white whale” of foreign influence operations. “Close observers in the intelligence community and beyond have long been waiting for another sighting of that elusive beast: potentially highly impactful, deceptive, perhaps with forgeries slipped into genuine leaked material, with real news value, hard to counter,” he said, but added this did not appear to be it.

Devlin Barrett, Joseph Menn, Aaron Schaffer, Chris Dehghanpoor, Sam Oakford and Toluse Olorunnipa contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

LAS VEGAS — Speaking to supporters at a campaign rally here Saturday night, Kamala Harris told attendees that she knows the issues with the immigration system and how to fix them, touting her work as California attorney general.

“I went after transnational gangs, drug cartels and human traffickers who came into our country illegally. I prosecuted them in case after case, and I won,” Harris said to cheers.

“We know our immigration system is broken and we know what it takes to fix it. Comprehensive reform that includes, yes, strong border security and an earned pathway to citizenship.”

Then she turned her focus on her rival: “Donald Trump [doesn’t] want to fix this problem. He talks a big game — about a lot of things — but he talks a big game about border security. But he does not walk the walk.”

In the nascent weeks of her presidential campaign, Harris has tried to flip the script on the Republican attacks on her immigration record. During her first campaign swing through the Southwest as the Democratic nominee, she continued to portray herself as tough on the border and went on the offensive to attack former president Donald Trump, who has centered much of his campaign on border issues.

Republicans for years have attacked Harris as a failed “border czar” responsible for dealing with the surge of migrants at the border, and those attacks have only grown since she became the nominee. As vice president, she was directed by President Joe Biden to tackle the enduring root causes of migration, like poverty and violence, in Central America. She was never put in charge of the border nor labeled a “czar.”

At the rally, Harris also unveiled a proposal to “raise the minimum wage and eliminate taxes on tips for service and hospitality workers.” Trump proposed eliminating taxes on tips in June during a rally in Las Vegas.

Trump responded to Harris’s support for the idea on Truth Social, saying she “just copied my NO TAXES ON TIPS Policy. The difference is, she won’t do it, she just wants it for Political Purposes! This was a TRUMP idea – She has no ideas, she can only steal from me.”

Supporters waited in extreme heat to attend the event, huddling near large misters pointed at the line. According to a campaign official, more than 12,000 people attended the event held at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas’s Thomas & Mack Center before doors were closed due to the temperatures.

“Local law enforcement made the decision to close the doors to the event due to people becoming ill while waiting outside to go through security in the 109-degree heat. Approximately 4,000 people were in line when the entrances were shut down,” said the official.

In Atlanta last month, she described her border focus while working in California, telling attendees, “I was the attorney general of a border state. In that job, I walked underground tunnels between the United States and Mexico on that border with law enforcement officers.”

Harris has also taken aim at Trump for his immigration policies, blaming him for blocking a bipartisan border security bill earlier this year and arguing that he doesn’t want to resolve the issue.

Earlier this year, we had a chance to pass the toughest bipartisan border security bill in decades. But Donald Trump tanked the bill because he thought it would help him win an election,” she said in Las Vegas. “Well, when I am president, I will sign that bill into law.”

Asked about Harris’s claims, a Trump campaign spokesperson directed The Post to a video shared by Trump on Truth Social on Saturday.

The video says Harris would provide health care for undocumented immigrants, using footage of a Democratic primary debate in 2020, when Harris raised her hand when candidates were asked to do so if their health plan would cover undocumented immigrants. The text on screen concludes: “Failed. Weak. Dangerously liberal.

A Harris campaign ad released Friday highlighted the same components of Harris’s biography that she has raised on the trail when discussing immigration.

“As president, she will hire thousands more border agents and crack down on fentanyl and human trafficking,” the ad’s narrator says, concluding: “Fixing the border is tough. So is Kamala Harris.”

Last week, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted both Arizona and Nevada from “lean Republican” to “toss up,” reversing a move it made in early July before Biden’s decision to leave the presidential race and endorse Harris.

Dan Kanninen, the Harris campaign’s battleground states director, said in a memo Friday that the campaign in Nevada has “the largest in-state operation of any coordinated campaign ever with 13 offices and nearly 100 staff on the ground.” In Arizona, he said, “the campaign has 12 coordinated offices with six more to come — the most of any Arizona coordinated campaign in history,” with more than 120 full-time staffers.

Clark Willits — a supporter from California who drove nine hours to attend the event and then waited outside in the heat for five hours to get inside — dismissed the attacks from the right on Harris’s immigration record.

“I think she can’t skirt it under the rug, so to speak, but I don’t think she has much to worry about when it comes to immigration,” he said. “I believe in her, and I know that she will pass immigration reform, because she takes those matters very seriously as a multiracial individual herself.”

“She gets it,” he added. “Trump, on the other hand, he wants to build a wall. You know, there’s no comparison. So I think it’s a weak argument.”

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

The 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is turning the corner as a long-term trend indicator turns bullish and price extends on a breakout. TLT is also starting to outperform the S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP), for the first time in a long time.

The first chart shows TLT with the 5-day SMA (green), the 200-day SMA (red) and the Percent above MA (5,200,1) in the lower window. This indicator shows the percentage difference between the 5 and 200 day SMAs. Note that I placed signal thresholds at +3% and -3%. This means I want the 5-day SMA to be at least 3% above/below the 200-day SMA for a signal.

We cannot totally eliminate whipsaws, but we can reduce them with smoothing and signal thresholds. In the window above, we can see the indicator turning green and red as the 5-day crosses above/below the 200-day. There were at 21 crosses over the last four years. There were only three crosses using the 3% signal thresholds. Note that a 3% signal triggers with a move above 3% and remains valid until a move below -3%. Percent above MA(5,200,1) exceeded +3% this week to signal the start of a long-term uptrend. Note that Percent above MA is one of 11 indicators in the TIP Indicator Edge Plugin (here).

As featured at TrendInvestorPro, the next chart shows TLT with some classic technical analysis at work, and a breakout to boot. First, TLT surged some 22% from late October to December. It then declined with a falling channel that retraced around 2/3 of this advance. TLT managed to hold well above the October low and break out of the channel. This higher low shows buying pressure stepping in at higher prices (above the October low). The breakout signals a continuation of the 22% advance and targets a move to the next resistance zone (109). Support is set at 90.

We are also seeing TLT outperform the S&P 500 EW ETF (RSP) for the first time in over a year. The indicator window shows the TLT/RSP ratio flattening out in spring-summer and breaking above its June high (red line). It also broke the 200-day SMA. Admittedly, the relative breakout is still a work in progress. The breakout on the price chart, however, looks solid.

We featured the breakout in TLT over a week ago and will continue to monitor it at TrendInvestorPro. This week we covered the significance of a surging VIX and widening yield spreads. We also covered deteriorating breadth and put forth a target zone for SPY going forward. Click here for immediate access.

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In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, Dave presents a special all-mailbag episode, answering viewer questions on optimizing entry points for long ideas, best practices for point & figure charts, and the relationship between gold and interest rates.

See Dave’s chart showing Zweig Breadth Thrust signals for 25 years here.

This video originally premiered on August 9, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

A sigh of relief? The US stock market started the week on a pessimistic note, but changed course toward the end of the week, ending in a more positive tone.

Last week’s weaker-than-expected jobs report scared investors into thinking that perhaps the Federal Reserve was too late in cutting interest rates. However, last week’s ISM Services report and Thursday’s jobless claims eased those concerns.

Stock Market Indexes Are Better, Technically

While the charts of the S&P 500 ($SPX), Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) are showing signs of strength, it’s too early to declare that it’s beginning to rally to the upside. Let’s analyze the charts of all three indexes in more detail and see where they stand.

The Mega-Cap S&P 500 Index

The S&P 500 held the support of its 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and its 50% Fibonacci retracement (from the April low to July high). While the S&P 500 looks like it’s trying to move higher (see chart below), the next resistance level isn’t too far off. The 38.2% Fib retracement at 5400 was a support level for some previous lows. If the S&P 500 reaches that level, the August 2 gap will be filled.

Until the index breaks above the 5400 level, you can’t call this week’s price action a bullish rally. All the more reason to watch the price action in the S&P 500.

CHART 1. DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 500. The index ended the week closing above its 100-day moving average and its 50% Fibonacci retracement level, but it’s too early to call this a bullish move.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Tech-Heavy Nasdaq Composite

The Nasdaq Composite is also improving, but hasn’t reached the ranks of the S&P 500. From a technical standpoint, the Nasdaq Composite is approaching its 100-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement level (from April lows to July high), which could act as a resistance level (see chart below). Looking back, you can see that level was a resistance and support level in the past.

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF NASDAQ COMPOSITE. Watch the resistance level that’s close by. Will the index break through this level, or will it be a resistance level that it’ll have a tough time pushing through?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average differs slightly from the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, but also looks better technically (see chart below). It peaked on July 18, declined a few days later, and tried to reach the previous peak.

The price action is almost like a double top pattern. What’s interesting is that the index almost reached its measured move lower. The measured move from the July 18 high to July 24 trough was 3.4%. From the chart below, you can see that a 3.4% decline from the July 24 low would bring the index to 38,438. The Dow went as low as 38,499 before moving higher.

Overall, it seems that equities are trying to recover. But will the recovery be sustained?

Recession worries may be in the rearview mirror for a while, but investors continue to walk a fine line. On Monday, the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) went as high as 65.73. The last time we saw those levels was in March 2020, when COVID was a concern.

Volatility has come down significantly, but is still above 20. It’s too early to say the market is done with fear; we’ve only started to see a change. Remember, it was just a few days ago when the stock market saw an excessive selloff. Next week, there are important reports on consumer and producer inflation, retail sales, and consumer sentiment.

Inflation Data: What To Know

With rate cut expectations on the radar, you’ll want to stay on top of next week’s inflation data. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates a year-over-year percent change of 3.01% for headline CPI and 3.33% for Core CPI. If the data shows that inflation is coming down as it has been in the last few months, investors could sigh a huge relief. Conversely, if the data comes in hotter than expected, it could throw things off. But that’s unlikely since a rate cut in September is very probable. That’s not to say it’s not possible, though.

Watch the price action in bonds ahead of the US inflation data. Bond prices showed signs of leaving the start line but have retreated. The daily chart of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT below shows the ETF bounced off a support level.

Which direction will TLT move? If the inflation data supports a September rate cut, then TLT will move higher, possibly before the report is released.

Another note is that the CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September at 49.5. That’s a significant drop from the end of last week, when the probability was close to 90%.

Closing Position

Proceed with caution. We’ve seen how quickly the market can change direction. Any piece of negative data could send volatility through the roof again. The stock market is hanging on, and the best you can do is note the important support levels in the broader indexes, sectors, and individual equities. If equities can hang on next week, they’ll be on more solid footing. Right now, you need to have a safety net close by.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

  • S&P 500 closed down 0.04% for the week, at 5344.16, Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.60% for the week at 39,497.54; Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.18% for the week at 16745.30
  • $VIX down 12.91% for the week closing at 20.37
  • Best performing sector for the week: Industrials
  • Worst performing sector for the week: Materials
  • Top 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Insmed Inc. (INSM); Carvana Co. (CVNA); FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI); Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM); SharkNinja, Inc. (SN)

On the Radar Next Week

  • July Producer Price Index (PPI)
  • July Consumer Price Index (CPI)
  • July Retail Sales
  • August Michigan Consumer Sentiment
  • July Housing Starts
  • Fed speeches from Bostic, Harker, Musalem, Goolsbee, 
  • Earnings from Walmart (WMT), Cisco Systems (CSC), Home Depot (HD), among others.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.