In this video, Mary Ellen reviews the market’s flat momentum as uncertainty reemerges after weak AMZN, TSLA and GOOGL reports – PLUS more tariff talk from Trump. She also highlights the move into defensive sectors as growth stocks continue to struggle. Lastly, she shares the top stocks that are keeping the S&P 500 in an uptrend.
New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.
If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.
In what can be called an indecisive week for the markets, the Nifty oscillated back and forth within a given range and ended the week on a flat note. Over the past five sessions, the Nifty largely remained within a defined range. While it continued resisting the crucial levels, it also failed to develop any definite directional bias throughout the week. The Nifty stayed and moved in the 585-point range. The volatility significantly declined. The India VIX came off by 15.77% to 13.69 on a weekly note. While trading below crucial levels, the headline index closed flat with a negligible weekly gain of 51.55 points (+0.22%).
A few important technical points must be noted as we approach the markets over the coming weeks. Both the 50-Day and 50-Week MA are in very close proximity to each other at 23754 and 23767, respectively. The Nifty has resisted to this point, and so long as it stays below this level, it will remain in the secondary corrective trend. For this secondary trend to reverse, the Nifty will have to move past the 23750-24000 zone, one of the critical market resistance areas. Until we trade below this zone, the best technical rebounds will face resistance here, and the markets will remain vulnerable to profit-taking bouts from higher levels. On the lower side, keeping the head above 23500 will be crucial; any breach of this level will make the markets weaker again.
Monday is likely to see a quiet start to the week; the levels of 23700 and 23960 will act as resistance levels. The supports come in at 23350 and 23000 levels.
The weekly RSI stands at 46.20. It remains neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bearish and stays below its signal line. A Spinning Top occurred on the candles, reflecting the market participants’ indecisiveness.
The pattern analysis weekly charts show that after violating the 50-week MA, the Nifty suffered a corrective decline while forming the immediate swing low of 22800. The subsequent rebound has found resistance again at the 50-week MA at 23767, and the Nifty has retraced once again from that level. The zone of 23700-24000 is now the most immediate and major resistance area for the Nifty over the immediate short term.
Unless the Nifty crosses above the 23700-24000 zone, it will remain in a secondary downtrend. On the lower side, keeping head above the 23500 level will be crucial; any violation of this level will take Nifty towards the 23000 mark. The markets may continue to reflect risk-off sentiment overall. Given the current technical setup, remaining highly selective while making fresh purchases would be prudent. All technical rebounds should be used more to protect gains at higher levels. At the same time, staying invested in stocks with strong or at least improving relative strength while keeping overall leveraged exposures at modest levels is important. A cautious and selective approach is advised for the coming week.
Sector Analysis For The Coming Week
In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.
Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show defensive and risk-off setups building up in the markets. Nifty Bank, Midcap 100, and Realty Indices are inside the leading quadrant. But all these pockets show a sharp loss of relative momentum against the broader markets.
The Nifty Financial Services Index has slipped inside the weakening quadrant. The Nifty Services Sector and IT indices are inside the weakening quadrant. The Pharma Index is also inside this quadrant but is seen as attempting to improve its relative momentum.
The Nifty Media, Energy, and PSE indices are inside the lagging quadrant.
The Nifty FMCG, Consumption, and Commodities groups have rolled inside the improving quadrant, indicating a likely onset of the phase of relative outperformance. The Auto, Infrastructure, Metal, and PSU Bank indices are inside the improving quadrant. Among these groups, the PSU Bank Index is seen rapidly giving up on its relative momentum.
Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.
In this video, Dave breaks down the formerly high-flying Mag 7 stocks into three distinct buckets. These include long & strong (META, NFLX & AMZN), broken down (TSLA, AAPL, MSFT & NVDA), and questionable (GOOGL). He also shows how GOOGL is not the only leading name featuring a bearish momentum divergence in February 2025, and what that could mean for the broad equity markets!
Do you remember when NVDA stock had a very high StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score for most of 2023 and 2024? If not, that’s OK. You’ll remember when you look at the chart of NVDA later in this article.
The chip company we know so well — NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) — has seen its share of euphoria and panic. NVDA’s stock price gained 239% in 2023 and 171.24% in 2024. Mega tech companies plan to increase their AI spend in 2024, which could boost NVDA’s stock price, given NVDA’s dominance in AI chips. But this doesn’t make the stock price immune from selloffs. We saw how the news on January 27 about DeepSeek’s ability to build AI models more cost-effectively sent investors scrambling to sell off NVDA shares.
The NVDA stock price fall was the biggest one-day loss the stock market has seen as of this writing. This price action gave investors a dose of reality — even the best-performing stock can go through a steep plunge when you least expect it. Fortunately, investors overcame the initial DeepSeek scare and NVDA’s stock price is on its path to recovery.
Let’s walk through NVDA’s stock price charts, starting with the weekly chart (see chart below).
FIGURE 1. WEEKLY CHART OF NVDA STOCK. It’s been in a steady uptrend since the end of 2022. After the recent pullback to its 50-week simple moving average, the stock has been struggling.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
After the pullback from November 2021 to October 2022, the stock has been on a relatively sustained uptrend. At the end of January 2023, NVDA’s SCTR score crossed above 76, a threshold level I use to identify a stock that’s gaining technical strength. For the most part, the SCTR score remained above this threshold until the end of 2024.
The SCTR score is now inching toward the 76 level, and NVDA stock’s price is at its 21-week exponential moving average (EMA).
Let’s see what the daily chart is displaying.
FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF NVDA STOCK. After the massive fall on January 27, NVDA’s stock is showing signs of recovery. It still needs more upside momentum to push the stock price higher. However, if the stock price moves to the downside, there are clear support levels to monitor.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
When NVDA’s stock price fell on January 27, the close was below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which caused a big drop in the stock’s SCTR score. Even after recovering from the fall, the stock price again dipped below its 200-day SMA on February 3. The stock is now on its way to filling the DeepSeek down gap.
The SCTR score is less than 70 and looks like it’s stalling. The stock price is between the 21-day EMA and 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Both are relatively flat. The stock needs more momentum to break through the resistance of the SMA.
Other criteria to consider are:
The rate of change (ROC) is still in negative territory.
The percentage price oscillator (PPO) has just crossed above its signal line. The PPO histogram is just above the zero line.
The relative strength index (RSI) is just above the 50 line.
Volume is still tepid.
Overall, NVDA’s stock price is showing hesitancy and could move in either direction. A push to the upside would move the stock price higher, hitting its previous highs. But the momentum behind it has to be strong.
If the stock price falls, watch the following support levels:
The 21-day EMA.
Price action between $127 and $129.
Price action between $113 and $115.
A reversal from a pullback with follow-through is a great place to accumulate positions. Make sure to monitor the chart and get a feel for when the bulls become more dominant.
The Bottom Line
NVDA’s stock price movement is leaning toward the downside, which isn’t unusual in an uncertain investment environment. You’re better off looking at the overall trend and applying objective analytical tools, such as the SCTR Reports and technical indicators, in order to identify strength and momentum in a specific stock, exchange-traded fund, or index. Make your investment decisions based on what the charts and tools are indicating; not on the noise you hear.
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.
On Monday morning, President Trump announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports — a sweeping policy move that’s certain to reshape the Materials sector. While this can negatively affect several industries, domestic steel producers are likely to benefit from increased demand.
How Markets Reacted to the 25% Tariff Announcement
The StockCharts MarketCarpets provides a clear visual of how investors reacted when the tariff announcement made headlines.
FIGURE 1. MARKETCARPETS VIEW OF THE MATERIALS SECTOR. Notice the top gainers consist of domestic metals producers.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
The stocks that gained the most following the announcement were Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) and Nucor Corporation (NUE), both domestic steel producers, as well as Newmont Corporation (NEM), a mining company focused on gold and copper extraction.
The surge in STLD and NUE reflects investor expectations that tariffs will curb foreign competition, allowing US steelmakers to raise prices and expand market share. NEM also gained, likely due to broader market concerns over trade tensions and inflation. On top of this, copper — a key industrial metal — could see supply chain shifts or price fluctuations, depending on how tariffs impact global trade flows.
Let’s take a longer-term look at these stocks relative to the Materials sector and the broader market (S&P 500). Below is a PerfCharts view of their relative performance over the last year.
FIGURE 2. PERFCHARTS OF THE S&P 500, XLB, STLD, NUE, AND NEM. Though NEM outperformed, the other stocks and the Materials sector underperformed the broader market.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
Global steel production decreased in 2024. So it’s no surprise that the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB), our sector proxy, underperformed the S&P 500, and that many steel producers and miners would also underperform the broader market and sector. Interestingly, NEM outperformed the S&P 500, XLB, STLD, and NUE in 2024 due to surging gold prices, strong financial performance, increased gold production, and free cash flow.
Still, if the new tariff environment remains unchanged, then NEM and especially STLD and NUE may have plenty of room to run. Let’s take a look at the sector and all three stocks to see if there are any present trading opportunities.
FIGURE 3. 5-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF XLB. Sector performance tends to follow a cyclical pattern, with March, July, and November historically seeing the highest close rates and average gains.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
Geopolitical shifts under the new administration will likely reshape seasonal trends. Nevertheless, historical context remains valuable. Over the past five years, March has been XLB’s second-strongest month, with a 75% higher-close rate and an average gain of 4.8%. That’s the seasonality picture.
Now, let’s look at the price action from a longer-term trend perspective. Below is a weekly chart of XLB.
FIGURE 4. WEEKLY CHART OF XLB. While the Materials sector has lagged behind the S&P 500, it’s been trending upward nevertheless.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
This five-year chart shows XLB underperforming the S&P 500. If you go back a few decades, this negative performance has been steady. Yet XLB, due to overall market growth, inflation, and sector-specific cycles, has been trending up in absolute terms.
Demand for materials is cyclical, and the Materials sector Bullish Percent Index ($BPMATE), a breadth indicator, illustrates this clearly. Currently, the BPI is moving upwards, with 31% of stocks within the sector flashing Point & Figure buy signals. Typically a crossover from below to above 30% would issue a bull alert; a move above 50% would strongly favor the bulls, signifying that buyers have the edge. Understanding XLB’s broader trend helps contextualize whether the stocks within the sector are moving with or against the sector’s trend relative to their trajectories.
FIGURE 5. DAILY CHART OF NEM. Is it a new bullish trend or a bear rally?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
NEM is attempting to recover from a steep selloff that began in October. The key question is whether the bullish reversal signals the start of a robust recovery or a temporary bounce within a sustained downtrend.
To gain insight into this question, let’s examine a couple of indicators: one that measures momentum and another that analyzes volume. Volume-wise, the Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) plotted behind the price shows strong money flow into the stock, its buying pressure supporting NEM’s recovery. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is showing strong bullish momentum, yet indicates that NEM may be sailing into overbought conditions.
The key levels to watch are near the top line (Leading Span B, red cloud) and the projected bottom line (also the Leading Span B, but in the green section) of the Ichimoku Cloud. If price declines at or near the top, but bounces at the bottom, the bullish reversal thesis remains intact, signaling a potential early buying opportunity for those looking to get into the stock. If prices fall below the bottom level, the downtrend is likely to resume.
Now let’s look at the domestic steelmakers on the list, starting with a weekly chart of STLD.
FIGURE 6. WEEKLY CHART OF STLD. The stock price looks like it’s in a volatile ascent.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
I’m highlighting a weekly rather than a daily chart for two reasons: First, you can’t see the larger (trend) context on a daily chart, and second, the key levels are just as apparent in the weekly as in the daily chart.
Over the last six years, of which the last three are shown on the chart, STLD has been trending upward with increasing volatility. Steel production in the US may have decreased significantly in 2024, yet STLD prices continue to cumulatively rise. This trend underscores the inherent cyclicality of the steel industry, as evidenced by the fluctuating prices.
NOTE: Although “seasonality” and cyclicality can be related, the latter refers more to macroeconomic, industry, and supply-demand shifts. These typically drive fluctuations in a manner that gets smoothed out in seasonality charts. So, when I use the term “cyclicality,” I’m referring to these fluctuations before them being “averaged out” in a seasonality calculation.
The ZigZag line illustrates the major swing highs and lows that define the trend, as well as key support and resistance levels. If STLD’s uptrend were to maintain its trajectory, price must stay above the swing low level slightly above $110 (see magenta line) and eventually break above resistance at the most recent swing high at $155. Given this is a weekly chart, it may take months to play out (assuming the longer-term uptrend sustains itself).
Note, however, that the selling pressure appears to be the dominant driver for near-term volume, according to the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). If volume precedes price in this particular instance, then a pullback may be imminent.
Last, but not least, take a look at a daily chart of NUE.
FIGURE 7. DAILY CHART OF NUE. The stock is in a downtrend and all the indicators spell a bear rally.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.
NUE may have jumped 6.24% on Monday, but what are investors rushing into? While Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports are likely to boost domestic steel producers, NUE is amid an arguably robust downtrend.
Its response to the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement (drawn from the December high to low) isn’t promising either, making the recent surge look more like a bear rally than a bullish trend reversal. Additionally, the CMF has remained largely negative, dipping well below the zero line and recently crossing it again, indicating that selling pressure continues to dominate.
However, there are shoots of hope, as NUE appears to be rising against the broader Dow Jones U.S. Iron & Steel Index ($DJUSST) of which NUE is a component (see magenta line). If NUE stays above the $115 level (the most recent swing low), then such a level may signal a bottom. Of course, you’ll want to make sure that volume and momentum support are aligned with this potential reversal.
At the Close
If you’re bullish on U.S. steel producers, consider adding these stocks to your ChartLists, keeping a close watch on the MarketCarpets Materials sector view, and staying informed on industry news. With these tools and insights, you’re likely to spot a market opportunity.
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.
When three Israeli hostages emerged at the weekend, emaciated and gaunt after 16 months in Hamas captivity, Israelis were shocked by the images.
But inside the Israeli government, top officials were not surprised.
And many of the remaining Israeli hostages are also believed to be in even worse condition, the officials said. “From this moment onward, we expect worse scenes,” a second Israeli official said.
Eli Sharabi, Or Levy and Ohad Ben Ami were paraded by Hamas militants during a handover ceremony on Saturday, the three latest Israeli hostages to be freed by the militant group since the implementation of the ceasefire-for-hostages deal between Israel and Hamas.
The three men appeared drastically thinner than before their release, and their relatives subsequently raised concerns about their physical and mental treatment during their captivity.
Hamas has since postponed the next hostage release scheduled to take place in Gaza on Saturday “until further notice,” accusing Israel of breaking the ceasefire deal. This has heightened fears surrounding the status and wellbeing of the dozens of Israelis still being held in the enclave.
Israel’s intelligence indicates that Hamas has been treating male hostages worse than female captives, the second official said, and there is especially heightened concern for the condition of the male soldiers held captive by Hamas.
Many male hostages have been fed less and kept in far worse conditions, the officials added, citing Israeli assessments.
Evidence supporting that intelligence has only grown in recent days, as the freed hostages and their families described elements of their captivity.
Or Levy’s brother Michael said when he saw his brother on Saturday for the first time in 16 months, he wasn’t the same person who left home on October 7, 2023.
“He came back in poor physical condition. Anyone who saw the pictures and videos couldn’t ignore it. For 16 months, he was hungry, barefoot and in constant fear that every day can be his last,” Michael said, according to the Hostages Families Forum Headquarters.
Returning hostages said that several male hostages were being held in chains and are severely malnourished.
In a heart-wrenching interview on Israel’s Channel 12, the mother of 24-year-old hostage Alon Ohel shared what she had learned about her son.
“He has shrapnel in his eye, he has shrapnel in his shoulder, he has shrapnel in his arm. Alon was bound in chains, this entire time, and he had almost no food — at most one pita a day, over a very, very, very long time, more than a year,” Idit Ohel said.
Speaking at a news conference on Sunday, Ella Ben Ami said her father, Ohad, “went through hell” in Gaza and noted that the remaining Israeli hostages are suffering the same conditions her father did.
“I had many pictures in my mind of my dad, but nothing prepared me for those pictures of him on that stage in Gaza. I was sure that I would be strong, but I fell on the floor and screamed, ‘I’m sorry,’” she said.
The Israeli military meanwhile said on Tuesday that Shlomo Mantzur, who at 85 was the oldest hostage taken on October 7, was killed during the Hamas-led attack and his body has since been held in Gaza.
The Israel Defense Forces said Tuesday they notified his family after confirmation of his death “based on intelligence gathered in recent months” and following approval by a committee of the Ministry of Health, in cooperation with the Ministry of Religious Services and the Israeli Police.
It’s only three weeks into a fragile ceasefire, and Israel and Hamas are eachratcheting up allegations that the other party has violated the deal.
So far, 16 out of 33 hostages scheduled for release in the current phase of the agreement have been freed by Hamas, and 656 Palestinian prisoners from a list of nearly 2,000 have been released by Israel. But the weekly exchanges may now be disrupted after Hamas accused Israel of violating the agreement and said it would postpone Saturday’s hostage release “until further notice.”
Israel has hit back, with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying late Tuesday that the Gaza ceasefire will end if Hamas does not release hostages as planned on Saturday.
“If Hamas does not return our hostages by Saturday noon – the ceasefire will end, and the IDF will return to intense fighting until Hamas is completely defeated,” Netanyahu said in a video statement.
US President Donald Trump, whose envoy helped mediate the agreement along with officials from Egypt and Qatar, has suggested dismissing the multi-staged approach of the deal altogether and giving Hamas an ultimatum to release all the hostages at once.
Here’s what each side is saying, and where the deal could go from here:
Hamas says Israel violated the deal
On Monday, Hamas threatened to postpone the next hostage release, accusing Israel of violating the ceasefire deal by targeting Palestinians with gunfire in various parts of Gaza, delaying the return of displaced people to the heavily bombarded north, and not allowing the agreed humanitarian aid to enter the enclave.
The militant group also accused Israel of delaying the entry of essential medicines and hospital supplies, as well as not allowing tents, prefabricated houses, fuel, or rubble-removing machines into Gaza.
On Tuesday, the Gaza health ministry said that 92 people in the enclave had been killed in Israeli military operations since the ceasefire came into effect.
Abu Obeida, a spokesman for Hamas’ armed wing, said in a social media post on Monday: “We affirm our commitment to the terms of the agreement as long as the occupation commits to them.”
In a later statement, Hamas added that there was still an opportunity for the release to go forward as planned, saying that Israel has sufficient time “to fulfill its obligations.”
Israel says delay is ‘complete violation’ of deal
Hamas’ postponement is a “complete violation of the ceasefire agreement and the deal to release the hostages,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Monday.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a meeting with his political and security cabinet on Tuesday, where they expected next steps.
Katz said he instructed the military to “prepare at the highest level of alert for any possible scenario in Gaza.” The Israeli military also said it was raising the level of readiness in southern Israel and that it would reinforce the area to enhance its “readiness for various scenarios.”
Those announcements also come after Israeli forces opened fire on Sunday in the eastern areas of Gaza City, close to the Gaza border, killing three Palestinians, Palestinian authorities said. The incident happened close to the border fence near Nahal Oz, an Israeli kibbutz, or agricultural commune. Following that incident, Katz said: “Anyone who enters the buffer zone, their blood is on their own head – zero tolerance for anyone who threatens IDF (Israel Defense Forces) forces or the fence area and communities.”
What did Trump say?
President Trump has urged Israel to “let all hell break out” and cancel the ceasefire and hostages deal if Hamas does not return those still being held in Gaza by Saturday.
“As far as I’m concerned, if all of the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday at 12 o’clock – I think it’s an appropriate time – I would say, cancel it and all bets are off and let hell break out,” the president told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday,
Trump added that all hostages ought to be returned, not two or three “in drips and drabs,” which is the phased manner of releases outlined in the deal.
Pressed on what “all hell” might entail in Gaza, Trump said, “You’ll find out, and they’ll find out – Hamas will find out what I mean.”
Trump and his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff are part of the team that helped broker the ceasefire, which was finalized with cooperation between the Biden and Trump camps just before the new administration took office.
The US president went on to say that Palestinians would not have a right to return to Gaza under his plan to take US ownership of the enclave and rebuild it.
Trump also told reporters on Monday: “I think a lot of the hostages are dead.” At least 34 of the hostages are dead, according to Israel, though the true number is expected to be higher.
How likely is the ceasefire to hold?
In short, no one knows.
It took about a year of negotiations to reach the current deal. The first ceasefire, in November 2023, lasted about a week.
The current agreement is set up to progress in three distinct phases, the first of which is already halfway through.
As well as the release of 16 hostages so far, phase one has seen the entry of more humanitarian aid and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from parts of Gaza. The Israeli military has retained its presence along Gaza’s borders with Egypt and Israel.
Israel has to date released around a third of the nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners agreed for the exchange, some of them held without charge, and others facing life sentences.
Following Israel’s withdrawal from a key militarized zone dividing Gaza, Palestinians began returning to what’s left of their homes in theheavily bombarded north. The “overwhelming destruction of homes and communities in the north” has left people without viable shelter, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, which has said “the need for food, water, tents and shelter materials in that area remains critical.”
Meanwhile, negotiations for the second and third phases have barely started.
Netanyahu waited until last weekend – one week after a deadline for further ceasefire talks – to send his delegation to Qatar. Israeli media has speculated that he is simply running out the clock until phase one of the deal expires on March 1.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a key member of Netanyahu’s coalition, has threatened to quit the government if Israel doesn’t return to war after the first phase of the truce.
Plastic tubes meander from Rosella’s nose to a nearby oxygen tank that’s bigger than she is, as she flicks through a book of her drawings: a flower, a house, a chicken.
The 9-year-old needs non-stop medical attention for the bone condition she was born with that has left her ribs pushing dangerously on her lungs, one of which is not working as it should.
Rosella and her mother are refugees living in one of nine remote camps dotted along Thailand’s mountainous border with Myanmar.
About 100,000 people live in the camps, having fled decades of fighting between the Myanmar military and ethnic minority rebel groups. The situation at the border has worsened in recent years by the junta’s coup and ensuing civil war.
Mae La is the biggest camp and its US-funded hospital is the only source of health care for more than 37,000 people living there – mostly from the ethnic Karen minority.
When the Trump administration ordered a 90-day freeze on almost all international aid, halting the US’ entire global development network overnight, the camp hospital was forced to shut its doors, sending shock waves through the refugee community.
Video posted by refugees on social media showed patients at the center being lifted from their hospital beds and carried out in hammocks covered in blankets.
Rosella was moved to a nearby improvised health center, along with other patients with chronic conditions. But there are no longer any doctors to treat her.
Numerous aid workers in northern Thailand described widespread panic and confusion following the sudden suspension of aid, especially among those whose work provides life-saving services to some of the world’s most vulnerable and impoverished people on both sides of the border.
“We have never faced a problem like this before,” said Saw Bweh Say, secretary of the Karen Refugee Committee, which represents refugees in the Thai camps.
Anxiety over medicine and food
Refugees in the Thai border camps live a fragile and isolated existence.
They cannot legally work and need a permit to even leave the camp. The Thai government considers the camps temporary settlements, but some communities have been there for generations.
Basic services such as health care, education, sanitation, water and food are provided by international aid donors. In Mae La, and six other camps, those funds come almost entirely from the US – the world’s largest aid donor – through the International Rescue Committee.
Though the camp hospitals are more akin to field clinics, with tin roofs and intermittent power, they are the only source of health care for tens of thousands of people.
“If it’s an emergency, how can we face the situation? That burdens a lot of people here,” said Ni Ni, 62, who has heart failure and kidney disease.
For some, it’s already too late. In nearby Umpiem camp, an elderly lady with breathing problems died after she could not access supplemental oxygen due to the hospital closure, an IRC spokesperson said.
Obtained by CNN
An IRC spokesperson said they had to start shutting outpatient departments and other facilities in the camps following the stop-work order. Management of the medical facilities, equipment and water system has been transferred to Thai authorities and camp commanders, though the IRC continues to source medicine and fuel using non-US funds.
Teams of refugee medics, midwives and nurses are working round-the-clock helping to plug the gaps, while families scramble for alternative treatment for their loved ones.
“Karen families donated medicine and oxygen tanks, but that’s not enough,” said Pim Kerdsawang, an independent NGO worker in the border city of Mae Sot.
Compounding their concerns is the cost of food. Feeding more than 100,000 refugees across all nine camps for one month costs $1.3 million dollars, and the organization that provides the food and cooking fuel says it has only enough money to last for a month and a half.
Refugees use a food card system to buy items in the camp shops, which is paid for by The Border Consortium. The food and cooking fuel are funded by State Department’s Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration (PRM), the group said.
“The main concern is not having the means to provide the refugees with food and cooking fuel. So far, there is no alternative to the US grant,” said Leon de Riedmatten, executive director ofThe Border Consortium.
The organization has started prioritizing the most vulnerable refugees who have no income of their own, Riedmatten said, as the aid freeze and continuous arrival of new refugees fleeing violence in Myanmar drains the funds.
Thai hospitals bear the brunt
When Tawatchai Yingtaweesak heard the camp hospitals had shut, his team raced to see how they could help.
Tawatchai is director of the Tha Song Yang hospital, about a 30-minute drive from sprawling Mae La.
With no doctors on duty in the camps, his hospital and several others have stepped in to treat refugees with serious and emergency conditions.
Tawatchai said suddenly closing the US-funded hospital was “dangerous” and, since the aid freeze, his facility has taken in between 20 and 30 refugee patients.
He is working with camp medics and helping to deliver oxygen, among other supplies, but says this can only be a temporary fix. His hospital serves about 100,000 people and while they can cope, he worries that this year’s rainy season will overwhelm them.
Typically starting around June, the monsoon is “high season for disease,” Tawatchai said, with a surge in mosquito-borne diseases and children with pneumonia.
Naw Mary, 32, was rushed to the maternity ward at Tha Song Yang on Sunday, suffering from high blood pressure. Far from her family and home at the camp, she was about to give birth to her first child.
“They said it was risky to deliver a child in the camp without a doctor and facilities so they referred me to this hospital,” Naw Mary said.
Nervous and excited to bring her baby into the world, Naw Mary also said she’s concerned about follow-up care for her newborn and herself.
“Why did they have to stop helping the refugees?” she asked.
‘Those who are really in need’
The pain created by the US aid freeze goes beyond the refugee camps.
They include cuts to vaccine, education and resettlement programs, domestic violence shelters, anti-human-trafficking initiatives, safe houses for dissidents, and help for displaced people.
For more than 30 years, the Mae Tao clinic near Mae Sot has been a lifeline for vulnerable and impoverished migrants from Myanmar. The clinic handles almost 500 patients a day, and 20% of its funding comes from the US.
Now that funding has been put on hold, the clinic has to reallocate part of its budget so their health care services are not impacted.
“This fund we only use for vulnerable people and those who are really in need,” said Saw Than Lwin, deputy director of organization and development at Mae Tao.
Nearby the clinic, aid workers with the Burma Children Medical Fund load boxes of supplies containing food, infant formula baby milk powder, medicine, and eye screening kits, into a van.
It’s headed across the Moei River, a border between Thailand and Myanmar, to help thousands of people just kilometers away displaced by Myanmar military airstrikes and ground attacks.
The needs in Myanmar are huge, aid workers say, where millions of people struggle with hunger, trauma and the constant threat of attacks.
“The places that we’re working in are the remotest areas in all of Burma, very hard to reach communities without other alternatives to medical assistance,” said Salai Za Uk Ling, founder of the Chin Human Rights Organization.
About 30% of CHRO’s funding comes from the USAID and the group, which provides medical and mental health care to tens of thousands of people in Myanmar’s northwest, has had to cut vital services and lay off staff in the past three weeks.
“Rural communities, people who are living in displaced situation, don’t know a whole lot about international politics, all they care about is their daily survival,” Za Uk said.
“How do we even begin to explain to them why this is happening?”
In Myanmar’s Kayah state, also known as Karenni, the aid suspension has meant teachers’ salaries cannot be paid, leaving kids without education, said Banya Khung Aung, founder and director of the Karenni Human Rights Group.
If they had more notice, groups like his could have sourced alternative funding, he said.
Waivers not being processed
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has claimed the US is continuing to provide lifesaving humanitarian aid. Rubio, now the acting administrator of USAID, reiterated last week that he had issued a blanket waiver for lifesaving programs.
“If it’s providing food or medicine or anything that is saving lives and is immediate and urgent, you’re not included in the freeze. I don’t know how much more clear we can be than that,” Rubio said, questioning the competency of organizations that haven’t applied for a waiver.
Even if funds are made available after the 90-day freeze, “who would then communicate to us or be knowledgeable enough to process what is left of the system?” asked Za Uk from CHRO.
“By time that any funding reaches us, unfortunately for those suffering from serious medical condition might be lost.”
In his January 20 executive order, President Donald Trump said the “US foreign aid industry” serves to “destabilize world peace” and is “in many cases antithetical to American values.”
But those affected in northern Thailand are some of the world’s most vulnerable people who rely on US aid to survive.
In Mae La camp, Rosella can’t stray far from her oxygen tank. She needs one tank every two days, her mother said.
Complicating their family’s situation is that Rebecca is five months pregnant. She used to get her ultrasounds and prenatal care at the hospital, but that has all stopped as well.
“I don’t know what to do. There are no doctors to go and see right now for this pregnancy,” she said.
“I’m worried for my daughter and this pregnancy, worried for everyone.”
A couple who bought a London mansion for £32,500,000 ($40,200,000)have been told by a court that they can hand the property back and recoup most of their costs after the house was found to have a huge moth infestation.
Situated on one of the quiet leafy streets just outside Notting Hill, Horbury Villa seemed like the perfect northwest London home. But behind its grand Victorian façade, a colony of moths living in the insulation wreaked havoc across the house, which contains a pool, spa, gym, cinema and wine room.
Iya Patarkatsishvili, the daughter of a Georgian billionaire, and her husband Yevhen Hunyak bought the house in May 2019 from William Woodward-Fisher, a surveyor and residential real estate developer, according to the judgment published Monday.
However, the couple said that once they moved in they found moths on their toothbrushes, towels and wine glasses. The insects also caused damage to their clothes, some of which were thrown away.
At one point, Hunyak said he would kill between 10 and 35 moths every day, while his family and cleaners did the same.
A judge has found in the couple’s favor, ruling that Woodward-Fisher made “fraudulent misrepresentations” and “concealed a serious clothes moth infestation of the insulation in the house” before the sale, according to a press summary of the judgment, published Monday.
Mr Justice Fancourt ruled that Woodward-Fisher had falsely answered three queries before selling the house, including by saying that he didn’t know of any vermin infestation or of any hidden defect in the property.
According to the judgment, Woodward-Fisher’s wife had noticed a problem with clothes moths (Tineola Bisselliella) in early 2018 after new insulation was installed as part of major building works. The help of extermination specialists was enlisted to deal with the problem. She then forwarded some of these emails about the infestation to her husband Woodward-Fisher, the judgment said.
Fancourt noted in his judgment that he didn’t think Woodward-Fisher was “consciously trying to deceive the Claimants. He simply wanted to sell the house and move on.”
As well as granting Patarkatsishvili and Hunyak most of their money back, minus an amount to take into account the period they lived there, Fancourt also awarded them “substantial damages” and all the costs they incurred trying to get rid of the moths.
Amid the maelstrom of indignation around Donald Trump’s proposal to “take over” Gaza, French President Emmanuel Macron has called for “respect” for Palestinians and their Arab neighbors, batting away the US president’s idea of a mass displacement of Gazans from their homeland.
“The right answer is not a real estate operation, this is a political operation,” he said.
While France has been forthright in its support for Israel’s right to defend itself after Hamas’ October 7, 2023, massacre, Macron has not shied from publicly decrying Israel’s policies and conduct in its military operations in Gaza and Lebanon.
France suspended arms exports to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in October 2024, calling on other nations to follow suit.
“I always reiterated my disagreement with (Israeli) Prime Minister Netanyahu,” Macron said. “I don’t believe, once again, that such a massive operation targeting sometimes civilian people is the right answer.”
Macron said any “efficient” response to rebuilding Gaza “doesn’t mean automatically that you should lack respect to people or countries,” highlighting the wishes of Palestinians to remain on their homelands and the unwillingness of both Jordan and Egypt to accept large numbers of Gazan refugees.
The provocative proposal lofted by Trump outlined a plan to remove Palestinians from Gaza to neighboring Egypt and Jordan, with the US taking “long-term ownership” of the enclave.
Trump stirred up storms of criticism for bigging up Gaza’s real estate potential, suggesting he could redevelop it into a “Middle Eastern Riviera.”
It’s not the first time those in Trump’s orbit floated that idea. Last year, his son-in-law Jared Kushner, who served as a senior adviser to Trump in his first term, suggested “cleaning up” Gaza by booting out civilians to unlock the “very valuable” waterfront potential of the territory.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu backed Trump’s “remarkable idea” during a visit to the US last week. In recent months Israel has seen a wave of far-right settler groups planning and advocating for the redevelopment of Gaza, calling for Arab people to leave and to re-establish Jewish settlements.
Any such land grab from the Palestinians would be illegal under international law, and likely to spark further global condemnation.
Already, like France, the international community has come out vocally against Trump’s plans.
The United Nations was robust, its secretary-general warning Trump against “ethnic cleansing.” Spain’s foreign minister told radio station RNE that “Gazans’ land is Gaza.” In Western Europe, only Dutch far-right figurehead Geert Wilders broke ranks to endorse the plan. “Let Palestinians move to Jordan. Gaza-problem solved!” he wrote on X.
German President Walter Steinmeier said the suggestion was “unacceptable,” and the country’s foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, said it would “lead to new suffering and new hatred.”
But some allies have tried to play both sides, keeping Trump happy while trying to uphold longheld norms over Palestinian rights. “On the issue of Gaza, Donald Trump is right,” UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy told reporters in Ukraine this week. “Looking at those scenes, Palestinians who have been horrendously displaced over so many months of war, it is clear that Gaza is lying in rubble.”
Lammy went on to add: “We have always been clear in our view that we must see two states and we must see Palestinians able to live and prosper in their homelands in Gaza.” His boss, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, also stressed that Palestinians must be allowed back to their homes in Gaza.
France has been full-throated in shooting down plans to displace Palestinians, with the government’s spokesperson describing such a move as a “destabilizing question in the Middle East.”
