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‘Like the world has forgotten us:’ As Iran-Israel conflict escalates, Gazans fear their suffering will become invisible

4 Mins Read

The young girl sits on the dusty floor, clutching her father’s shoe close to her chest as she cries and screams in anger. Bisan Qwaider is unconsolable. Her father has just been killed while trying to get food for her and her 10 hungry siblings.

Shadi knew travel to the area was dangerous: Ma’an had been under an Israeli evacuation order for some time and has come under Israeli bombardment. But, despite the risk, his children were hungry and he believed he could get some food there for them.

Gaza is facing a hunger crisis. A UN-backed report published in late April warned that one in five people in Gaza were facing starvation and that the entire enclave was edging closer to famine. The situation has only worsened since then, according to the UN.

Sha’ath said Qwaider was killed in an airstrike and his body was pulled from the rubble on Sunday. He is one of hundreds of people who have died while attempting to find food in Gaza in recent weeks, according to Gaza health authorities.

In late May, Israel partially lifted an 11-week total blockade on Gaza, but humanitarian organizations say the aid entering now is only a tiny fraction of what is needed.

“Without immediate and massively scaled-up access to the basic means of survival, we risk a descent into famine, further chaos, and the loss of more lives,” the UN’s humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher said last week.

The humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza has sparked outrage around the world, recently prompting even some of Israel’s closest allies to speak up.

France, the United Kingdom and Canada issued a rare statement last month criticizing Israel and threatening “concrete steps” if the situation in Gaza does not improve. The UK paused trade negotiations with Israel and sanctioned West Bank settlers last month, and the European Union said it would review a key cooperation agreement with Israel.

But as tensions continue to escalate between Israel and Iran, people in Gaza are now worried that even the limited pressure on Israel over their suffering will quickly evaporate.

“All the (focus) has shifted to the Israeli-Iranian war, even though the Gaza Strip has been wiped off of the map,” Mustafa said.

One in 40 dead

More than 55,300 people have been killed and more than 128,700 injured in Gaza since October 7, 2023, according to health authorities there.

The numbers are staggering: The death toll represents some 2.5% of the entire Gaza population, meaning that out of every 40 Palestinians living in Gaza before the war, one is now dead.

And the deadly hunger crisis is worsening. The International Committee of the Red Cross said on Monday that people are struggling to access basic goods because of Israeli restrictions on what can be brought into the territory.

Meanwhile, a US and Israeli-backed aid initiative, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) – a controversial organization that was established amid Israeli accusations that Hamas is stealing aid in Gaza and profiting off its sale – is struggling to fulfill the task.

The organization has been criticized by multiple international aid agencies that it isn’t fit for purpose.

According to Gaza health authorities, at least 300 people have been killed since the GHF opened its distribution points in late May, which are located in areas surrounded by active combat zones.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said last week that Israeli authorities have allowed only a select number of UN agencies and international non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to resume the delivery of aid into Gaza after partially lifting the blockade and that “only very limited amounts of certain food items, nutrition supplies, some health supplies, and water purification items” are allowed.

Other aid supplies, such as shelter materials, hygiene products and medical equipment are still being blocked by Israel, according to OCHA.

For young Bisan Qwaider, the only thing from her father she could get a hold of was his shoe.

As she screamed for her father, she looked to the sky and shouted a message for those she believed were responsible for his death. “May God hold you accountable,” she said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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Iran’s Mossad paranoia grows, amid fears of Israeli spies wearing ‘masks, hats and sunglasses’

4 Mins Read

Iran has arrested dozens of people on suspicion of spying as fears grow in the Islamic Republic over the extent of its infiltration by Israel’s Mossad intelligence service.

Since Israeli strikes began Friday, 28 people in the capital have been arrested and accused of spying for Israel, while on Monday, one man arrested on that charge two years ago was hanged in what appeared to be a message to any would-be collaborator.

The Iranian regime has also arrested scores of people across the country for allegedly sharing articles online “in support of the Zionist regime” – accusing them of disrupting the “psychological security of society” – including 60 people in Isfahan, where Israel claims to have targeted a nuclear site.

The wave of arrests comes as Tehran reels from the revelation that Mossad operatives smuggled weapons into Iran before Israel’s unprecedented attack and used them to target the country from within.

So heightened have Iranian suspicions become since then that its Intelligence Ministry has been asking the public to report suspicious activity and issuing guidance on how to spot collaborators.

One statement from the ministry urges people to be wary of strangers wearing masks or goggles, driving pickup trucks and carrying large bags or filming around military, industrial, or residential areas.

Elsewhere, a poster published by the state-affiliated Nour News – which is close to Iran’s security apparatus – singled out for suspicion people who wear “masks, hats, and sunglasses, even at night” and those who receive “frequent package deliveries by courier.”

The poster asks people to report “unusual sounds from inside the house, such as screaming, the sound of metal equipment, continuous banging” and “houses with curtains drawn even during the day.”

Another poster, attributed to the police and published on state media, advised landlords who had recently rented their homes to notify the police immediately.

The fears of Israeli penetration only amplify the anxieties felt by the increasingly isolated leadership of the Islamic Republic, which has been rocked in recent years by anti-regime protests sparked by the death of a young woman in the custody of the country’s so-called morality police.

The same force used to crack down on those protests, the Basij (a paramilitary wing of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard) has been deployed in night patrols to increase “surveillance” in the wake of the Israeli infiltration, according to Iran’s state-controlled media.

In a video statement Monday, Iran’s chief of police Ahmad-Reza Radan urged “traitors” to come forward, suggesting those who realized they had been “deceived by the enemy” might receive more lenient treatment and be “honored” by Iran – while those who were caught would be “taught a lesson that the Zionist enemy is being given now.”

The head of Iran’s judiciary Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i called for “swift” punishment of those accused of collaborating with Israel.

“Let’s say we have apprehended someone who is collaborating with (Israel), this matter under these war-like conditions … must be prosecuted swiftly and punished swiftly,” he said.

The Iranian regime’s rising paranoia comes as more details emerge of the Mossad operation that smuggled weapons into Iran ahead of the first strikes on Friday.

According to Israeli officials, operatives established a base for launching explosive drones inside Iran, then used those drones to target missile launchers near Tehran.

Precision weapons were also smuggled in, they say, and used to target surface-to-air missile systems, clearing the way for Israel’s Air Force to carry out more than 100 strikes with upward of 200 aircraft in the early hours of Friday local time.

Intelligence gathered by the Mossad in Iran also reportedly gave Israel’s Air Force the ability to target senior Iranian commanders and scientists.

Since then, according to Iranian media outlets, the government has seized equipment allegedly used during the Israeli operation – including 200 kilograms of explosives, several suicide drones, launchers and equipment used to manufacture the drones – in the city of Rey in Tehran province.

A video published by the state-affiliated Fars News Agency showed a building with drone parts and other equipment.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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14 killed in worst Russian strikes on Kyiv in weeks

3 Mins Read

Russian overnight drone and missile attacks on Kyiv killed 14 people, officials said on Tuesday, in the deadliest strikes on the capital in weeks.

More than 55 people were wounded in the city, according to Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko, making it one of the deadliest nights for its residents in weeks.

Kyiv residents heard loud sirens from late Monday, through the early morning hours of Tuesday, making it a loud and sleepless night for many in the city. The sirens continued as day broke Tuesday – an alarm purportedly for a ballistic threat, according to the Ukrainian Air Force.

Of those wounded, more than 40 have been taken to hospitals, Klitschko said, with residential buildings and other infrastructure severely damaged.

“We hope that no dead will be found under the rubble, but we cannot rule it out,” Klitschko added. “The death toll may increase.”

“During the attack on Kyiv in the Solomyanskyi district, a 62-year-old US citizen died in a house opposite to the one where medics were providing assistance to the victims,” Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko said in a message on Telegram, without giving details.

Paramedics and police were seen working to rescue people wounded in a building that appears partially collapsed, according to video posted by the State Emergency Service of Ukraine.

Smoke could be seen rising from the site and debris was strewn all over the ground. Vehicles in front of the building were charred and destroyed.

Some 27 locations in different districts came under fire, according to a statement from Ukraine’s Minister of Internal Affairs, Ihor Klymenko.

“Rescuers, police and medics are working. They are doing everything they can to help the victims, clear the rubble and save lives,” he said.

The strikes come as Trump announced he would return to Washington a day early from the Group of 7 summit in Canada.

His early departure means he will miss a key meeting with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the event.

It would have been the leaders’ third meeting since Trump took office in January.

Ukrainian officials had been hoping that a positive interaction with Trump could advance Kyiv’s case as Russia has ramped up its airborne attacks in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu arrived in Pyongyang on a “special mission” from Russian leader Vladimir Putin, according to Russian state news agency TASS.

Shoigu is scheduled to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Tass reported Tuesday.

Pyongyang has continued support for Moscow’s war on Ukraine as world leaders push for an end to the three-year conflict.

North Korea has sent soldiers and millions of munitions, including missiles and rockets, to Russia over the past year, according to a May report by an international watchdog, the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team.

The US has warned that Russia may be close to sharing advanced space and satellite technology with North Korea in exchange for continued support for the war in Ukraine.

In April, Russia launched its deadliest wave of attacks on Kyiv in nine months, sending 70 missiles and 145 drones toward Ukraine, mainly targeting the capital city, killing at least 12 people and injuring 90 more.

Under Trump, the US has been less willing to equip badly outgunned Ukraine directly, has pushed European partners to pick up more of the support and threatened to walk away altogether from peace talks.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

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In Business

Anne Wojcicki to buy back 23andMe and its data for $305 million

2 Mins Read

Anne Wojcicki, the co-founder and former CEO of 23andMe, has regained control over the embattled genetic testing company after her new nonprofit, TTAM Research Institute, outbid Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, the company announced Friday.

TTAM will acquire substantially all of 23andMe’s assets for $305 million, including its Personal Genome Service and Research Services business lines as well as telehealth subsidiary Lemonaid Health. It’s a big win for Wojcicki, who stepped down from her role as CEO when 23andMe filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in March.

Last month, Regeneron announced it would purchase most of 23andMe’s assets for $256 million after it came out on top during a bankruptcy auction. But Wojcicki submitted a separate $305 million bid through TTAM and pushed to reopen the auction. TTAM is an acronym for the first letters of 23andMe, according to The Wall Street Journal.

“I am thrilled that TTAM Research Institute will be able to continue the mission of 23andMe to help people access, understand and benefit from the human genome,” Wojcicki said in a statement.

23andMe gained popularity because of its at-home DNA testing kits that gave customers insight into their family histories and genetic profiles. The five-time CNBC Disruptor 50 company went public in 2021 via a merger with a special purpose acquisition company. At its peak, 23andMe was valued at around $6 billion.

The company struggled to generate recurring revenue and stand up viable research and therapeutics businesses after going public, and it has been plagued by privacy concerns since hackers accessed the information of nearly seven million customers in 2023.

TTAM’s acquisition is still subject to approval by the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Eastern District of Missouri.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Trump made millions on guitars, Bibles and watches with his name on them, disclosure reveals

2 Mins Read

President Donald Trump continues to enjoy income streams from scores of luxury properties and business ventures, many of which are worth tens of millions of dollars, according to a financial disclosure form filed late Friday.

Released by the Office of Government Ethics, Trump’s 2025 financial disclosure spans 234 pages in all, including 145 pages of stock and bond investments. It is dated Friday with Trump’s signature.

One of the largest sources of income is the $57,355,532 he received from his ownership stake in World Liberty Financial, the cryptocurrency platform launched last year. The form shows that World Liberty’s sales of digital tokens have been highly lucrative for Trump and his family. Trump’s three sons, Donald Jr., Eric and Barron, are listed on the company’s website as co-founders of the firm.

Separately, Trump’s meme coin, known on crypto markets simply as $TRUMP, was not released until January and is therefore not subject to the disclosure requirements for this form, which covered calendar year 2024.

It was a lucrative year for Trump when it came to royalty payments for the various goods that are sold featuring his name and likeness.

Among the royalty payments:

The filing also includes a listing of liabilities, including at least $15,000 on an American Express credit card and payments due to E. Jean Carroll, the woman who successfully sued Trump over sexual abuse and defamation, though he is still seeking to appeal the decision.

The rest of the document includes dozens of pages of lengthy footnotes about his various assets.

The form was filed to comply with federal requirements for executive branch office holders. By comparison, the form former President Joe Biden filed in 2024 was 11 pages and consisted largely of conventional sources of income like bank and retirement accounts, while Kamala Harris’ was 15 pages.

Many of Trump’s key assets are held in a revocable trust overseen by Donald Trump Jr., his eldest son. They include more than 100,000 shares of Trump Media and Technology Group, the social media company that went public in 2024. Trump is the largest shareholder, and his nearly 53% is worth billions of dollars. Those holdings were still disclosed in the form.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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Starbucks moves to the next phase in its turnaround: Winning over employees

7 Mins Read

As Starbucks aims to bring back customers and assuage investors with its turnaround strategy, it is also winning over its store managers with promises to add more seating inside cafes and promote internally.

Since CEO Brian Niccol’s first week at the company, he’s been pledging to bring the company “back to Starbucks” to lift sluggish sales. That goal was in full view at the company’s Leadership Experience, a three-day event in Las Vegas for more than 14,000 store leaders this week.

Starbucks unveiled a new coffee called the 1971 Roast, a callback to the year that its first location opened at Pike Place in Seattle. The finalists at Starbucks’ first-ever Global Barista Championships referred to “back to Starbucks” as they prepared drinks for judges. Even the Wi-Fi password was “backtostarbucks!”

To investors, Niccol has already presented a multi-part strategy that involves retooling the company’s marketing strategy, improving staffing in cafes, fixing the chain’s mobile app issues and making its locations cozier. The company also laid off roughly 1,100 corporate workers earlier this year, saying it aimed to operate more efficiently and reduce redundancies.

Starbucks shares have climbed nearly 20% since April and are trading just shy of where they were after a nearly 25% spike the day Niccol was announced as CEO.

While Starbucks has taken major steps to win back customers and Wall Street, it’s also trying to regain faith among its employees. Staffers have had concerns about hours and workloads for years, sparking a broad union push across the U.S.

To excite the chain’s store managers, Starbucks executives’ pitch this week focused on giving them more control. Before launching new drinks, like a protein-packed cold foam, the company is first testing them in five stores to gain feedback from baristas.

When the chain increases its staffing this summer, managers will have more input on how many baristas they need. And next year, most North American stores will add an assistant manager to their rosters.

“You are the leaders of Starbucks. Your focus on the customer is critical. Your leadership is critical. And as you return to your coffeehouses, please remember: coffee, community, opportunity, all the good that follows,” Niccol said on Tuesday.

Niccol’s “back to Starbucks” strategy centers on the idea that the company’s culture has faltered. Its Leadership Experience, typically held every couple of years, was the first since 2019 — three CEOs ago.

“We are a business of connection and humanity,” Niccol said on Tuesday afternoon, addressing a crowd of more than 14,000 managers. “Great people make great things happen.”

As more customers order their lattes via the company’s app, its cafes have lost their identity as a “third place” for people to hang out and sip their drinks.

To return to Starbucks’ prior culture, the company is unwinding previous decisions — like removing seats from its cafes. In recent years, the chain has removed 30,000 seats from its locations. Those renovations have irritated both customers and employees; the manager of Niccol’s local Starbucks in Newport Beach, California, even asked him to remove her store from its renovation list because she wanted to keep the seating, according to Niccol.

“We’re going to put those seats back in,” Niccol said, bringing a big wave of applause from the audience.

He earned more applause from the audience when discussing the chain’s plans to promote internally as it eventually adds 10,000 more locations in the U.S.

Although historically roughly 60% of Starbucks store managers have been internal promotions, the company wants to raise that to 90% for its retail leadership roles. Thousands of new cafes means 1,000 more district managers, 100 regional directors and 14 regional vice presidents for the company — and more upward career mobility for its store leaders.

Staffing more broadly has been a concern for Starbucks and its employees, fueling a wave of union elections across hundreds its stores. Past management teams have cut down on the labor allotted to stores, helping profit margins at the cost of burning out baristas and slowing service.

Under Niccol, Starbucks is changing the trend. The company is accelerating plans to roll out its new Green Apron labor model by the end of the summer, because tests have shown that it improves service times and boosts traffic. As part of the model, managers will have more input on how much labor their store needs.

And Chief Partner Officer Sara Kelly received a standing ovation from the crowd for her announcement that most North American locations will receive a full-time, dedicated assistant store manager next year.

“For much of the time, your store is operating without you there, and you share that even when you’re not in the store, you’re not able to fully disconnect, and it can feel like the weight of everything is on your shoulders. … It affects everything, the partner experience, the customer experience, the performance of your store,” Kelly said, addressing the store managers in the audience.

Underscoring the challenges Niccol faces in recapturing the company’s brand, the two speakers who scored the most applause from store managers are no longer actively involved in the company.

Former chairwoman Mellody Hobson scored standing ovations during both her entry and exit onto the arena’s stage. Hobson, wiping tears from her eyes, thanked the Starbucks employees whom she said always made her feel welcome in their stores.

She stepped down from her position earlier this year, ending a roughly two-decade tenure that culminated with her becoming the first African American woman to become the independent chair of a Fortune 500 company. Hobson also serves as co-CEO of Ariel Investments.

Hobson ceded her position as chair of the board to Niccol when he joined the company in September. Niccol credited her with poaching him from Chipotle as Starbucks sought to find a leader who could turn around its flailing business.

“A quick conversation [with Hobson] turned into something really special for me,” Niccol said.

And Hobson’s longtime friend Howard Schultz also earned standing ovations from store managers.

Schultz, the three-time CEO who grew Starbucks from a small chain into a coffee powerhouse, made a surprise appearance at the Leadership Experience on Wednesday morning. It marked the first time that he’s appeared with Niccol publicly since the board tossed out his handpicked successor, Laxman Narasimhan, and selected the then-Chipotle CEO to take the reins.

Starbucks has long been plagued by questions about its succession, given Schultz’s former willingness to return to the helm of the company. But since Niccol’s appointment, industry analysts have thought that he might finally be the CEO who manages to escape Schultz’s lingering influence over the coffee giant.

The ghost of Schultz lingered earlier in the event. Niccol shared a story about being inspired hearing Schultz speak at Yum Brands, Niccol’s then-employer, back in 2008. The 71-year-old chairman emeritus also appeared in video form on Tuesday afternoon to thank Hobson for her service to the company.

During his conversation with Niccol on Wednesday, Schultz co-signed his plan to get “back to Starbucks,” saying that he did a cartwheel in his living room the first time that he heard about it.

He also asked managers to bring that energy back to their own Starbucks locations.

“Be true to the coffee, be true to your partners,” Schultz told the audience. “And I know we’re going to come out of here … like a tidal wave and surprise and delight the world and prove all those cynics wrong again, just as we did in 1987.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

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What the S&P 500, VIX, and ARKK are Telling Us Now

5 Mins Read

While the S&P 500 ($SPX) logged a negative reversal on Wednesday, the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX), Wall Street’s fear gauge, logged a positive reversal. This is pretty typical: when the S&P 500 falls, the VIX rises.

Here’s what makes it interesting: the VIX has quietly crept up in three of the last four days. Before the midday pivot, the VIX hit its lowest level since February 21, 2025. And while that wasn’t the low in February, it was close. As the chart below depicts, back then, the VIX’s intraday low occurred on February 14, 2025, a few days before the SPX topped on February 19.

It wasn’t a screaming sell signal for equities. The S&P 500 was set to follow through on the big cup-with-handle pattern breakout, even though two straight bullish patterns failed in December and January.

Ultimately, the combination of the S&P 500 failing to get much higher than 6,100 and the VIX bouncing near support set the stage for the market rolling over. It was, of course, news-induced, but the market’s character had been changing since December, when breadth first took a major hit.

So, with the VIX closer to that same support zone now than it has been at any time the last few months and the S&P 500 back above 6,000, the pendulum has swung back near the extreme levels where the fireworks began. But there are two major differences now vs. then.

Bullish Patterns Are Working

Bullish patterns weren’t holding up well in December, January, and February (and then again in March). But they are working now.

Let’s not take this for granted. The S&P 500 starts the day with three live bullish patterns, and the index already hit one upside objective (5,840).

Most importantly, the index has extended above the breakout zones of the two biggest ones by 5.4% and 9%, respectively (see charts below). This means it could endure a not-so-small drawdown, and the patterns (and their upside targets) would remain in place. The index had no such cushion in February.

Still No 1% Declines

Since April 21, the S&P 500 has logged just one 1% decline, which now spans 35 trading days. It had 20 over the prior 71 days since January 6, 2025. That’s a rate of 2.8% vs. 28%. We had literally 10 times more 1% declines from January to April 21.

We didn’t see too many 1% losses in the first few weeks of 2025 either (see chart below). But with the index continuously failing at resistance, it just couldn’t leverage the low-volatility environment like it did from late 2023 through late 2024. As described above, in the last two months, the S&P 500 has been capitalizing on breakouts on low two-way volatility.

So, could all of this completely flip again with a massively surprising “unknown unknown” headline? There’s always that risk. And we know about the big collection of sell signals out there (MACD and Demark).

All of this suggests a respite is due. Bulls and bears seem to agree about that. What they don’t agree upon is the severity of that next pullback. There’s no use in trying to predict how far or how damaging it will be, however. As long as the bullish patterns remain intact, the nascent uptrend has a chance to continue in the months to come.

Zooming In: ARKK’s Strong Run

Let’s take a closer look at one of the more popular growth-focused ETFs: ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). Despite finishing off its highs, ARKK logged its fourth straight gain yesterday and is now up eight of the last nine trading sessions. Over that time, it has fully leveraged the bull flag we mentioned two weeks ago. The target from that pattern is near $67.

ARKK also logged its third straight trading box breakout in the last few days. So, from a short-term pattern perspective, things have continued to work for the stock.

Indicator-wise, ARKK is now officially overbought for the first time since last December. Over the last year, here’s how the ETF has fared after first reaching overbought territory.

Last July, ARKK hit its summer top just a few days after becoming overbought. In November and December (while ARKK’s upswing continued through mid-February), the ETF pulled back to levels below where the relative strength index (RSI) first hit 70 over the ensuing days/weeks both times.

In other words, this is not the best trading setup for new short-term longs. We expect the risk-reward to improve after the next pullback.

ARKK is also approaching the upper threshold of its big two-year trading channel, which could slow things down soon.

The Bottom Line

The S&P 500 is rising slowly and steadily, volatility is still relatively low, and growth plays like ARKK are looking strong, although they may be due for a pullback in the near term. Keep an eye on the chart patterns that are forming and look for investment opportunities on pullbacks.

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Bearish Divergence Suggests Caution For S&P 500

4 Mins Read

With Friday’s pullback after a relatively strong week, the S&P 500 chart appears to be flashing a rare but powerful signal that is quite common at major market tops. The signal in question is a bearish momentum divergence, formed by a pattern of higher highs in price combined with lower peaks in momentum, which indicates weakening buying power after an extended bullish phase.

Today, we’ll share a brief history lesson of previous market tops starting with the COVID peak in 2020. And while we don’t necessarily see a sudden downdraft as the most likely outcome, this bearish price and momentum structure suggests limited upside for the S&P 500 until and unless this divergence is invalidated.

First, let’s review some classic market tops, see how divergences are formed, and learn what often comes next.

The year 2020 started in a position of strength, continuing the uptrend phase of 2019. But conditions soon deteriorated, with weaker momentum and breadth signals flashing cautionary patterns. In the chart below, we can see the higher highs and higher lows in price action in January and February 2020.

Notice how the RSI was overbought at the January peak but not overbought at the February top? This pattern of higher prices on weaker momentum is what we’re looking for, as it implies a lack of buying power and therefore limited upside.

Almost two years later, the market had been driven higher due to an unprecedented amount of liquidity injected into the financial system. Toward the end of 2021, however, we saw the familiar bearish divergence flash again.

Here, we can see the higher price highs in November 2021 through January 2022 were marked by lower readings on momentum indicators like RSI. It’s worth noting here that these divergences don’t happen in a vacuum. In other words, we can use other tools in the technical analysis toolkit to evaluate the trend and determine if the price is reacting as expected to the bearish divergence.

In the weeks after the 2022 peak, we can see that the price broke down through an ascending 50-day moving average. The RSI eventually broke below the 40 level, confirming the rotation from a bullish phase to a bearish phase. So while the divergence itself does not imply a particular path in the months after the signal, it alerts us to use other indicators to validate and track a subsequent downtrend move.

More recently, the February 2025 market peak featured some classic momentum patterns going into the eventual top.

Starting in August 2024, we can see a series of higher price highs that were accompanied by improving RSI peaks. As the price was moving higher, the stronger momentum readings confirmed the uptrend phase. Then, starting December 2024, the next couple price peaks were marked with weaker momentum readings. This bearish divergence with price and RSI once again signaled waning momentum going into a major market peak.

That brings us to the current S&P 500 chart, featuring yet another bearish momentum divergence. And based on what we’ve reviewed so far, you can probably understand why I’m a bit skeptical going into next week!

To be fair, I’ve highlighted price and momentum divergences from significant market tops, many of which came after extended bull market phases. In this case, we’re still only two months off a major market low. However, I would argue the basic premise still holds true. With Friday’s pullback, the S&P 500 appears to be flashing this same pattern of higher prices on weaker momentum. Considering this negative rotation on momentum, I would anticipate at least a retest of the May swing low around 5770.

What would change this tactical bearish expectation? The only way for a bearish divergence to be negated is for the price to continue higher on stronger momentum. So, until we see the price make a new peak combined with the RSI pushing back up to overbought levels, a pullback may be the most likely scenario in the coming weeks.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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Week Ahead: NIFTY May Continue Showing Resilience; Broader Markets May Relatively Outperform

4 Mins Read

An attempt to break out of a month-long consolidation fizzled out as the Nifty declined and returned inside the trading zone it had created for itself. Over the past five sessions, the markets consolidated just above the upper edge of the trading zone; however, this failed to result in a breakout as the markets suffered a corrective retracement. The trading range stayed wider on anticipated lines; the Index oscillated in a 749-point range over the past week. The volatility rose; the India Vix climbed 3.08% to 15.08 on a weekly basis. The headline Index closed with a net weekly loss of 284.45 points (-1.14%).

We have a fresh set of geopolitical tensions to deal with Israel attacking Iran. The global equity markets are likely to remain affected, and India will be no exception to this. Having said this, the Indian markets are relatively stronger than their peers and are likely to stay that way. Despite the negative reaction to the global uncertainties, Nifty has shown great resilience and has remained in the 24500-25100 trading zone, in which it has been trading for over a month now. There are high possibilities that over the coming week, the Nifty may stay volatile and oscillate in a wide range, but it is unlikely to create any directional bias. A sustainable trend would emerge only after Nifty takes out 25100 on the upside or violates the 24500 level.

The levels of 25100 and 25300 are likely to act as resistance points in the coming week. The supports are likely to come in at 24500 and 24380.

The weekly RSI stands at 57.67; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bullish and remains above its signal line.

The pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that the Nifty has failed to break above the rising trendline resistance. This trendline begins from 21150 and joins the subsequent higher bottoms. Besides this, it reinforces the 25100 level as a strong resistance point. For any trending upmove to emerge, it would be crucial for the Index to move past this level convincingly.

Overall, it is unlikely that the Nifty will violate the 24500 levels. The options data shows very negligible call writing below 24500 strikes, increasing the possibility of this level staying defended over the coming days. Unless there is a situation with more gravity to be dealt with, the markets may stay largely in a defined trading range. The sector rotation stays visible in favor of traditionally defensive pockets and low-beta stocks. We continue to recommend a cautious stance as long as the Index does not move past the 25100 level and stays above that point. Until then, a highly stock-specific approach is recommended while guarding profits at higher levels.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against the CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), representing over 95% of the free-float market cap of all the listed stocks. 

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty Midcap 100 has rolled inside the leading quadrant and is set to outperform the broader markets relatively. The Nifty PSU Bank and PSE Indices are also inside the leading quadrant; however, they are giving up on their relative momentum.

The Nifty Infrastructure Index has rolled into the weakening quadrant. The Banknifty, Services Sector Index, Consumption, Financial Services, and Commodities Sector Indices are also inside the weakening quadrant. While stock-specific performance may be seen, the collective relative outperformance may diminish.

The Nifty FMCG Index languishes in the lagging quadrant. The Metal and Pharma Indices are also in the lagging quadrant, but they are improving their relative momentum against the broader Nifty 500 Index.

The Nifty Realty, Media, Auto, and Energy Sector Indices are inside the improving quadrant; they may continue improving their relative performance against the broader markets.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

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In Stocks

The Best Five Sectors, #23

4 Mins Read

This Time Technology Beats Financials

After a week of no changes, we’re back with renewed sector movements, and it’s another round of leapfrogging.

This week, technology has muscled its way back into the top five sectors at the expense of financials, highlighting the ongoing volatility in the market.

Communication Services and Consumer Staples have swapped places since last week, while Technology has entered at number five, pushing Financials down to sixth. The remaining sectors from seven to eleven remain unchanged.

This constant shuffling is a clear indicator of the market’s indecision. Imho, such volatility usually doesn’t accompany a sustainable trend, and that’s precisely what’s hurting trend-following models right now.

  1. (1) Industrials – (XLI)
  2. (2) Utilities – (XLU)
  3. (4) Communication Services – (XLC)*
  4. (3) Consumer Staples – (XLP)*
  5. (6) Technology – (XLK)*
  6. (5) Financials – (XLF)*
  7. (7) Real-Estate – (XLRE)
  8. (8) Materials – (XLB)
  9. (9) Consumer Discretionary – (XLY)
  10. (10) Healthcare – (XLV)
  11. (11) Energy – (XLE)

Weekly RRG Analysis

On the weekly Relative Rotation Graph, the Technology sector is showing impressive strength. Its tail is well-positioned in the improving quadrant, nearly entering the leading quadrant with a strong RRG heading. This movement explains Technology’s climb back into the top ranks.

Industrials remains the only top-five sector still inside the leading quadrant on the weekly RRG. It continues to gain relative strength, moving higher on the JdK RS-Ratio axis, while slightly losing relative momentum. All in all, this tail is still in good shape.

Utilities, Communication Services, and Consumer Staples are all currently in the weakening quadrant. Utilities and Staples show negative headings but maintain high RS-Ratio readings, giving them room to potentially curl back up. Communication Services is losing ground on the RS-Ratio scale but starting to pick up relative momentum.

Daily RRG: A Different Picture

Switching our focus to the daily RRG reveals a somewhat different story:

  • Industrials has moved into the lagging quadrant, losing ground on the RS-Ratio scale
  • Utilities and Staples are rolling back into the lagging quadrant with negative headings — not a great sign
  • Communication Services remains close to the benchmark
  • Technology shows the strongest tail, nearly completing a leading-weakening-leading rotation

This daily view underscores the strength we’re seeing in the Technology sector on the weekly timeframe.

Industrials: Facing Resistance

XLI dropped back below its previous high after a strong showing the week prior. There’s significant resistance between $142.50 and $145.

In a worst-case scenario, I think XLI could even retreat to the gap area between $137.50 and $139.

The uptrend remains intact, but more buying power is needed for a convincing break to new highs.

Utilities: Range-Bound

XLU is now trading in a range between roughly $80 on the downside and $83 on the upside.

It needs to break above the former high to continue building relative strength.

The raw RS line has returned to its trading range, dragging both RRG lines lower — not the strongest outlook for this defensive sector.

Communication Services: Testing Resistance

The sector peaked almost exactly at resistance offered by its previous high around $105, then closed at the lower end of the bar.

The raw RS line is managing to stay within its rising channel, albeit horizontally.

A sustained upward price movement is crucial for maintaining relative strength here.

Consumer Staples: Struggling to Break Higher

XLP continues to face heavy overhead resistance between $82 and $83.

Its inability to break higher is starting to hurt relative strength.

The raw RS line has moved down from a recent high, dragging the RRG lines lower.

The RS-Momentum line has already crossed below 100, positioning the weekly tail inside the weakening quadrant.

Technology: The Comeback Kid

XLK, the new kid on the block (again), tested its overhead resistance level around $244, peaking slightly above it last week before closing lower.

Recent strength has pushed the raw RS line convincingly higher, taking out its previous peak from mid-December.

Both RRG lines are pointing strongly upward, with RS-Momentum already above 100 and RS-Ratio rapidly approaching 100.

Portfolio Performance

With all this sector leapfrogging, especially involving the heavyweight Technology sector, the gap between the top five sectors’ performance and SPY has widened to around 7%.

The drawdown continues, but I’m sticking with this experiment and trusting the model to come back and start beating SPY again.

Yes, a 7% lag sounds significant (and it is), but it can change rapidly in such a concentrated portfolio. One or two strong weeks could easily turn this performance around, particularly if big sectors like Technology and potentially Consumer Discretionary become part of the top five.

#StayAlert and have a great week. –Julius

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