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It took 11 years since Facebook acquired it for $19 billion, but Meta is finally bringing ads to WhatsApp, marking a major change for an app whose founders shunned advertising.

Meta announced Monday that businesses will now be able to run so-called status ads on WhatsApp that prompt users to interact with the advertisers via the app’s messaging features. The ads will only be shown to users within WhatsApp’s “Updates” tab to separate the promotions from people’s personal conversations. Additionally, Meta will begin monetizing WhatsApp’s Channels feature through search ads and subscriptions.

The debut of ads on the messaging app represents a significant step in Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s plans to make WhatsApp “the next chapter” in his company’s history, as he told CNBC’s Jim Cramer in 2022. The move to monetize WhatsApp also comes amid Meta’s high-profile antitrust case with the Federal Trade Commission over the company’s blockbuster acquisitions of the messaging app and Instagram.

Already, Meta allows advertisers to run so-called click-to-message ads on Facebook and Instagram that steer users to WhatsApp where they can directly engage with businesses. Messaging between brands and consumers “should be the next pillar of our business,” Zuckerberg told analysts in April, adding that WhatsApp now has over 3 billion monthly users, including “more than 100 million people in the U.S. and growing quickly there.”

Now, companies can run those kinds of ads within WhatsApp itself. The new status ads appear in a user’s Updates tab within that tab’s “Status” feature that can be used to share pictures, videos and text that vanish after 24 hours, akin to Instagram Stories.

Since Meta bought WhatsApp in 2014, the popular messaging app has continued to grow worldwide. But unlike Facebook, Instagram and most recently Threads, WhatsApp has never allowed advertising.

WhatsApp’s co-founders, Jan Koum and Brian Acton, were public in their scorn for the advertising industry, and the duo left Facebook after reportedly clashing with executives who were eager to inject the app with advertising and other practices they shunned.

The social media company does not reveal WhatsApp’s specific sales, but analysts have previously estimated the app’s revenue to be between $500 million and $1 billion from charging businesses for tools and services so they can message customers on the app.

Meta will “use very basic information” to recommend which ads to show WhatsApp users, Nikila Srinivasan, Meta’s head of product for business messaging, said Friday. This includes a person’s country, city, device, language and data like who they follow or how they interact with ads.

The company debuted WhatsApp’s Updates tab in June 2023 along with an accompanying Channels feature that allows people and organizations to send broadcast messages and updates to their followers as opposed to personal conversations. Meta will also monetize the Channels feature, the company said Monday.

Organizations and people who are Channel administrators will now be able to spend money to boost the visibility of their respective Channels when a person searches for them via a directory, similar to ads on Apple’s and Google’s app stores.

Additionally, channel administrators will be able to charge users monthly subscription fees to access exclusive updates and content, Meta said Monday. The company will not immediately make money from those monthly subscription fees, but it plans to eventually take a 10% cut of those subscriptions, a spokesperson said.

Meta hopes that by limiting its new ads to WhatsApp’s Updates tab it will disrupt users as little as possible, Srinivasan said. Users’ status updates as well as personal messages and calls on WhatsApp will remain encrypted, she said.

“We really believe that the Updates tab is the right place for these new features,” Srinivasan said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

President Donald Trump’s business organization has announced the creation of a new wireless phone service that will carry the president’s name.

Trump Mobile, as the service will be known, will soon be available for what Donald Trump Jr. described as “real Americans” seeking “true value from their mobile carriers.” The eldest of Trump’s children, who serves as executive vice president of the Trump Organization, which runs the president’s businesses, made the remarks at a press event in New York City on Monday morning alongside his brother Eric Trump, who also oversees the Trump Organization.

According to the TrumpMobile.com website, the plan starts at $47.45 a month, reference to the elder Trump having served as the 45th and 47th president.

By comparison, Boost Mobile and Verizon’s Visible offer similar unlimited service for $25 per month. T-Mobile and Spectrum offer unlimited plans for $30.

Users can change to Trump Wireless while still keeping their existing phones. At the same time, the Trump Organization is also rolling out a $499 gold-colored phone, dubbed the T1, later this year as part of the service’s launch.

The announcement represents another example of the unprecedented line-blurring the president has undertaken by running the country while his branded business ventures continue to operate and make millions.

Late Friday, the president filed financial disclosure forms for 2024 showing hundreds of Trump-branded business ventures in operation as of last year. The Trump Organization, the main corporate entity run by the president’s family, earned more than $57 million from sales of digital tokens launched by its World Liberty Financial cryptocurrency platform. Trump has aggressively wielded the powers of the executive office to threaten businesses whose policies he does not support.

The launch of a wireless phone is a particularly striking case, since it comes as the president seeks to bring more production of electronics, including smartphones, to the United States. Trump has explicitly threatened Apple with tariffs for not making its iPhones stateside. Trump has sought to exert a strong influence over the heavily regulated telecom industry through Brendan Carr, the attorney Trump appointed to lead the Federal Communications Commission. Carr has cited traditional carriers for allegedly abusing workforce diversity requirements and censoring conservative voices.

The White House referred a request for comment to the Trump Organization. It did not respond to a follow-up query asking whether the president planned to use his own branded wireless service or the T1 phone.

According to its website, Trump Mobile is “powered” by Liberty Mobile Wireless. Florida state business records indicate Liberty Mobile was first registered in 2018 by its president and CEO, a Miami-area entrepreneur named Matthew Lopatin. He did not respond to an emailed request for comment.

Representatives for the three major U.S. phone carriers did not respond to requests for comment.

Trump Mobile’s T1 PhoneTrump Mobile

According to its website, Trump Mobile users would be able to receive telemedicine on their phone, roadside assistance and unlimited texting to at least 100 countries.

The service and phone are not actually made by the Trump Organization. The company is licensing the president’s name to a wireless service that is supported by the three major U.S. phone carriers. In a separate appearance with Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo’s “Mornings with Maria” show Monday, Eric Trump said the phones would also be made in the U.S. but did not state the manufacturer. He also said the service’s call center would be based in St. Louis.

The announcement appears to echo one made earlier this month by the trio of actor-hosts of the popular “SmartLess” podcast, who said they were launching their own wireless service by purchasing network capacity from T-Mobile.

Another actor, Ryan Reynolds, has invested in Mint Mobile, which also uses T-Mobile’s network. Both Mint and SmartLess have been pitched as value services for users who don’t have need for unlimited data.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Kraft Heinz said Tuesday that it will remove FD&C artificial dyes from its products by the end of 2027, and will not launch any new products in the U.S. containing those ingredients.

The company said in a release that about 10% of its U.S. items use FD&C colors, the synthetic additives that make many foods more visually appealing. Kraft Heinz brands that sell products with these dyes include Crystal Light, Kool-Aid, MiO, Jell-O and Jet-Puffed, according to a Kraft Heinz spokesperson.

The company removed artificial colors, preservatives and flavors from its Kraft macaroni and cheese in 2016 and its Heinz ketchup has never used artificial dyes, according to Pedro Navio, North America president at Kraft Heinz. It is unclear how removing the dyes will affect the company’s business, as consumers could perceive the products as healthier but also may be less drawn to duller colors.

Cases of Kool-Aid Jammers are stacked at a Costco Wholesale store in San Diego on April 27, 2025.Kevin Carter / Getty Images

The decision follows pressure from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and Department of Health and Human Services, led by Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., for the food industry to pull back on artificial dyes as part of a larger so-called Make America Healthy Again platform.

The FDA in April announced a plan to phase out the use of petroleum-based synthetic dyes by the end of next year and replace them with natural alternatives. Besides the previously banned Red No. 3, other dyes that will be eliminated include red dye 40, yellow dye 5, yellow dye 6, blue dye 1, blue dye 2 and green dye 2, FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said at the time.

Kennedy said at the time that the FDA and the food industry have “an understanding,” not a formal agreement, to remove artificial dyes. The Health and Human Services secretary discussed removing artificial food dyes during a meeting in March with top food executives from companies including Kraft Heinz, PepsiCo North America, General Mills, WK Kellogg, Tyson Foods, J.M. Smucker and the Consumer Brands Association, the industry’s top trade group.

A spokesperson for Kraft Heinz said on Tuesday that the company looks forward to partnering with the administration “to provide quality, affordable, and wholesome food for all.”

Momentum against food dyes had been building for years. In January, before President Donald Trump and Kennedy took office, the FDA announced a ban on the use of Red No. 3 dye in food and ingested drugs. The dye gives many candies and cereals their bright red color, but is also known to cause cancer in laboratory animals. The FDA allowed Red No. 3 to be used by food manufacturers for years, though the state of California had already banned the dye in 2023.

Kraft Heinz said in the release Tuesday that it has made more than 1,000 recipe changes over the past five years to improve product nutrition.

“The vast majority of our products use natural or no colors, and we’ve been on a journey to reduce our use of FD&C colors across the remainder of our portfolio,” Navio said. “Above all, we are focused on providing nutritious, affordable and great-tasting food for Americans and this is a privilege we don’t take lightly.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

While the S&P 500 ($SPX) logged a negative reversal on Wednesday, the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX), Wall Street’s fear gauge, logged a positive reversal. This is pretty typical: when the S&P 500 falls, the VIX rises.

Here’s what makes it interesting: the VIX has quietly crept up in three of the last four days. Before the midday pivot, the VIX hit its lowest level since February 21, 2025. And while that wasn’t the low in February, it was close. As the chart below depicts, back then, the VIX’s intraday low occurred on February 14, 2025, a few days before the SPX topped on February 19.

It wasn’t a screaming sell signal for equities. The S&P 500 was set to follow through on the big cup-with-handle pattern breakout, even though two straight bullish patterns failed in December and January.

Ultimately, the combination of the S&P 500 failing to get much higher than 6,100 and the VIX bouncing near support set the stage for the market rolling over. It was, of course, news-induced, but the market’s character had been changing since December, when breadth first took a major hit.

So, with the VIX closer to that same support zone now than it has been at any time the last few months and the S&P 500 back above 6,000, the pendulum has swung back near the extreme levels where the fireworks began. But there are two major differences now vs. then.

Bullish Patterns Are Working

Bullish patterns weren’t holding up well in December, January, and February (and then again in March). But they are working now.

Let’s not take this for granted. The S&P 500 starts the day with three live bullish patterns, and the index already hit one upside objective (5,840).

Most importantly, the index has extended above the breakout zones of the two biggest ones by 5.4% and 9%, respectively (see charts below). This means it could endure a not-so-small drawdown, and the patterns (and their upside targets) would remain in place. The index had no such cushion in February.

Still No 1% Declines

Since April 21, the S&P 500 has logged just one 1% decline, which now spans 35 trading days. It had 20 over the prior 71 days since January 6, 2025. That’s a rate of 2.8% vs. 28%. We had literally 10 times more 1% declines from January to April 21.

We didn’t see too many 1% losses in the first few weeks of 2025 either (see chart below). But with the index continuously failing at resistance, it just couldn’t leverage the low-volatility environment like it did from late 2023 through late 2024. As described above, in the last two months, the S&P 500 has been capitalizing on breakouts on low two-way volatility.

So, could all of this completely flip again with a massively surprising “unknown unknown” headline? There’s always that risk. And we know about the big collection of sell signals out there (MACD and Demark).

All of this suggests a respite is due. Bulls and bears seem to agree about that. What they don’t agree upon is the severity of that next pullback. There’s no use in trying to predict how far or how damaging it will be, however. As long as the bullish patterns remain intact, the nascent uptrend has a chance to continue in the months to come.

Zooming In: ARKK’s Strong Run

Let’s take a closer look at one of the more popular growth-focused ETFs: ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). Despite finishing off its highs, ARKK logged its fourth straight gain yesterday and is now up eight of the last nine trading sessions. Over that time, it has fully leveraged the bull flag we mentioned two weeks ago. The target from that pattern is near $67.

ARKK also logged its third straight trading box breakout in the last few days. So, from a short-term pattern perspective, things have continued to work for the stock.

Indicator-wise, ARKK is now officially overbought for the first time since last December. Over the last year, here’s how the ETF has fared after first reaching overbought territory.

Last July, ARKK hit its summer top just a few days after becoming overbought. In November and December (while ARKK’s upswing continued through mid-February), the ETF pulled back to levels below where the relative strength index (RSI) first hit 70 over the ensuing days/weeks both times.

In other words, this is not the best trading setup for new short-term longs. We expect the risk-reward to improve after the next pullback.

ARKK is also approaching the upper threshold of its big two-year trading channel, which could slow things down soon.

The Bottom Line

The S&P 500 is rising slowly and steadily, volatility is still relatively low, and growth plays like ARKK are looking strong, although they may be due for a pullback in the near term. Keep an eye on the chart patterns that are forming and look for investment opportunities on pullbacks.


With Friday’s pullback after a relatively strong week, the S&P 500 chart appears to be flashing a rare but powerful signal that is quite common at major market tops. The signal in question is a bearish momentum divergence, formed by a pattern of higher highs in price combined with lower peaks in momentum, which indicates weakening buying power after an extended bullish phase.

Today, we’ll share a brief history lesson of previous market tops starting with the COVID peak in 2020. And while we don’t necessarily see a sudden downdraft as the most likely outcome, this bearish price and momentum structure suggests limited upside for the S&P 500 until and unless this divergence is invalidated.

First, let’s review some classic market tops, see how divergences are formed, and learn what often comes next.

The year 2020 started in a position of strength, continuing the uptrend phase of 2019. But conditions soon deteriorated, with weaker momentum and breadth signals flashing cautionary patterns. In the chart below, we can see the higher highs and higher lows in price action in January and February 2020.

Notice how the RSI was overbought at the January peak but not overbought at the February top? This pattern of higher prices on weaker momentum is what we’re looking for, as it implies a lack of buying power and therefore limited upside.

Almost two years later, the market had been driven higher due to an unprecedented amount of liquidity injected into the financial system. Toward the end of 2021, however, we saw the familiar bearish divergence flash again.

Here, we can see the higher price highs in November 2021 through January 2022 were marked by lower readings on momentum indicators like RSI. It’s worth noting here that these divergences don’t happen in a vacuum. In other words, we can use other tools in the technical analysis toolkit to evaluate the trend and determine if the price is reacting as expected to the bearish divergence.

In the weeks after the 2022 peak, we can see that the price broke down through an ascending 50-day moving average. The RSI eventually broke below the 40 level, confirming the rotation from a bullish phase to a bearish phase. So while the divergence itself does not imply a particular path in the months after the signal, it alerts us to use other indicators to validate and track a subsequent downtrend move.

More recently, the February 2025 market peak featured some classic momentum patterns going into the eventual top.

Starting in August 2024, we can see a series of higher price highs that were accompanied by improving RSI peaks. As the price was moving higher, the stronger momentum readings confirmed the uptrend phase. Then, starting December 2024, the next couple price peaks were marked with weaker momentum readings. This bearish divergence with price and RSI once again signaled waning momentum going into a major market peak.

That brings us to the current S&P 500 chart, featuring yet another bearish momentum divergence. And based on what we’ve reviewed so far, you can probably understand why I’m a bit skeptical going into next week!

To be fair, I’ve highlighted price and momentum divergences from significant market tops, many of which came after extended bull market phases. In this case, we’re still only two months off a major market low. However, I would argue the basic premise still holds true. With Friday’s pullback, the S&P 500 appears to be flashing this same pattern of higher prices on weaker momentum. Considering this negative rotation on momentum, I would anticipate at least a retest of the May swing low around 5770.

What would change this tactical bearish expectation? The only way for a bearish divergence to be negated is for the price to continue higher on stronger momentum. So, until we see the price make a new peak combined with the RSI pushing back up to overbought levels, a pullback may be the most likely scenario in the coming weeks.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

In this video, Mary Ellen spotlights breakouts in Energy and Defense, Technology sector leadership, S&P 500 resilience, and more. She then unpacks the stablecoin fallout hitting Visa and Mastercard, highlights Oracle’s earnings breakout, and shares some pullback opportunities.

This video originally premiered June 13, 2025. You can watch it on our dedicated page for Mary Ellen’s videos.

New videos from Mary Ellen premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

With oil prices surging and geopolitical unrest stirring in the Middle East, it’s no surprise that energy stocks are drawing renewed attention. And, quite frankly, this week didn’t have many market-moving earnings. So this week, we skate to where the puck is, or, in this case, where traders’ eyes will be focused—the Energy sector.

In the past, we have witnessed this sector spike due to conflicts, and changes can come quickly. The following setups appear to favor continued and quick momentum to the upside.

Energy: A Sector on the Move

Let’s begin with the big picture: the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE). This ETF offers a broad view of the energy landscape. Yes, 40% of this ETF consists of just two stocks — Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX). So these two will drive the bus when it comes to price action. However, when looking at the entire sector, we see some good risk/reward setups worth monitoring.

From early 2024, XLE has been trading in a rather wide neutral range. In April, though, the ETF broke down and fell out of that range. That was due in part to cheaper oil prices and a reaction to Liberation Day tariffs. This ended up being a classic bear trap, as price held its 200-week moving average (red circle above) and moved back into its range.

The adage, “from false moves come fast moves in the opposite direction,” is well in play here, and given the fundamental backdrop of oil spiking due to conflict, the push higher should continue.

From a risk/reward set-up, the ETF could climb towards the top end of its range and likely break out higher. The risk is at the bottom of the neutral range — support at $82.50 with a first stop upside target of $95. Given Friday’s close, it’s not too much of a risk/reward difference, but momentum indicators suggest the upside is achievable, possibly quickly.

The weekly Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is flashing a strong buy signal, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is breaking a downtrend going back to its August 2024 peak. It has all the makings of a run to resistance and potential breakout, with conservative upside targets of $108 given the range from which the ETF is breaking out.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY): A Buffett Favorite Reawakens

If you’ve followed Warren Buffett’s investments, you’ll recognize Occidental Petroleum (OXY). The stock has been beaten down for quite some time, but, last week, it awoke from its slumber.

OXY shares spiked on Friday, which puts it at a key inflection point. This price action caught our eye, since we are focusing on some good setups from a risk/reward perspective. There could be more room for the stock to run.

OXY enters the week at its weekly downtrend, going back to its 2024 peak at $69.56. Technically, there is major resistance ahead, but it seems poised to attack those levels and has a lot to reverse, which can give investors a nice percentage gain in the meantime.

If shares can eclipse this recent downtrend, then expect a quick run to its 200-week moving average at the $52/$53 level. This level acted as a major consolidation point for years; the once mighty support area could act as resistance and must be watched closely. However, a date with this level looks quite promising and represents a 15% gain from Friday’s close.

If momentum continues and OXY breaks through that level, it’s smooth sailing for another 15+% upside toward the $60 area. OXY could continue to its 2022–2023 consolidation area and do so quickly.

Baker Hughes (BKR): Is It Ready to Wake Up?

Lastly, we turn to Baker Hughes (BKR), an oilfield services and technology company that has been a major laggard since its February peak of $48.85. Technically, it enters the week at a major inflection point.

BKR has formed an ascending triangle, which is nearing its breaking point. That point happens to be at its longer-term downtrend and its 200-day moving average, which makes for an interesting setup.

Downside risk could see shares fall back to their 50-day moving average and the rising short-term average that’s within this tradable formation. If BKR breaks below that level, all bets for this near-term rally are off. 

The upside risk favors the bulls. If BKR were to break out, this would confirm a new uptrend, with upside targets 15–20% higher than Friday’s close.

Final Thoughts

The setups we’re seeing in the Energy sector offer a favorable balance between risk and reward. Be mindful of the downside risks and place your stops in the event the position goes against you. Remember, energy markets can shift quickly, especially when geopolitical tensions are involved.


When you see headlines about geopolitical tensions and how the stock market sold off on the news, it can feel unsettling, especially when it comes to your hard-earned savings. But what you might not hear about in the news is what the charts are indicating.

Look at what happened in the stock market recently. On Friday, investors were bracing for a rocky start this week, expecting geopolitical tensions to shake up the stock market. That’s not what unfolded. After Friday’s +1% dip, the U.S. indexes bounced back, starting the week off on a positive note. It just goes to show how quickly things can shift, and often, not in the way we might anticipate.

A Closer Look at the S&P 500

The S&P 500 ($SPX) looks like it’s back on track and attempting to move toward its all-time high. Volatility has also retreated, and oil prices, which went as high as $77.62 a barrel, have pulled back to slightly above $71.

Think of it this way: if you took Friday’s price action out of the equation, the S&P 500 has been moving steadily by grinding out its narrow range sideways move. The uptrend in equities is still in play, despite the Middle East conflict.

The StockCharts Market Summary page shows that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) are trading well above their 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), while the Dow Industrials ($INDU) is struggling to remain above the benchmark. Small-cap stocks continue to struggle, which suggests that growth leadership continues to be on investors’ radars. You can see this in the sector performance panel, which shows Technology in the lead.

Since tech stocks make up a significant portion of the S&P 500, let’s take a closer look at the daily chart.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF S&P 500. The week started off on a positive note despite Middle East tensions. Monitor trends, key levels, and momentum indicators.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

As mentioned earlier, not much has happened in the S&P 500 despite Friday’s selloff. The overall uptrend is still in place. The index is trading above its 21-day exponential moving average. The S&P 500 is about 1.84% away from its all-time high.

However, even though the bias is slightly bullish, there are indications that the market’s momentum isn’t strong at the moment. Here’s why:

  • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is faltering, indicating momentum isn’t quite there yet. Note the RSI is not moving higher with the index, meaning it’s diverging.
  • The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) has been relatively flat and sloping slightly downward since the end of May. This confirms the stalling momentum indicated by the RSI.
  • The 200-day SMA is above the 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA needs to cross above the 200-day SMA to confirm the bullish bias.

What to Watch

Keeping the trend direction and momentum in mind, here are some levels to monitor on the chart.

  • Just below 6150: This area represents the S&P 500’s all-time high. If the index reaches this level, it will likely be met with resistance. A break above this level would elevate bullish sentiment and show upside momentum in the market.
  • Between 5950 and 6050: The S&P 500 has been moving within this range for most of the month. It almost seems as if it’s waiting for something to act as a catalyst to move it in either direction. When it happens, the RSI and PPO will indicate whether momentum is to the upside or downside.
  • The 5775 area: This level represents the March 24 to March 26 high and the May 12 and May 23 lows. A break below this level would not be bullish for the S&P 500. Note that the 200-day SMA is close to this level.

The Bottom Line

The stock market always has its ups and downs, and some days may feel more uncertain than others. However, by focusing on long-term trends and support or resistance levels based on past highs and lows, you can approach your investment decisions with a more objective mindset.

Instead of reacting to news headlines, consider adding the “lines in the sand” — key support and resistance levels, trendlines, price channels — to your charts. These can be added to daily, weekly, or monthly time frames. Monitoring the market’s action at these levels can offer valuable insights and better prepare you for whatever comes your way.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

For the past month Chinese aircraft carrier strike groups have been operating further from home shores and in greater strength than ever before, testing state-of-the-art technology and sending a message they are a force to be reckoned with, analysts and officials say.

Since early May, a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) flotilla led by the carrier Shandong has conducted exercises north of the Philippines; its newest carrier, the soon-to-be commissioned Fujian, has been on sea trials in disputed waters west of the Korean Peninsula; and its oldest carrier, the Liaoning has led exercises in the Pacific waters of Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

During the drills the Fujian for the first time conducted aircraft take-off and landing operations at sea using its advanced electromagnetic catapult system (EMALS), regional defense officials said.

That’s a significant development. Only one other carrier in the world has that system – the US Navy’s newest carrier, the USS Gerald R Ford.

Last Monday, the Japanese Defense Ministry said the Shandong and its support ships had been exercising in the waters southeast of the island of Miyako Island in southern Okinawa prefecture, putting two Chinese carrier strike groups in the open Pacific for the first time.

At the center of that box of exercises is Taiwan, the democratically ruled island claimed by China’s Communist Party despite never having controlled it.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has vowed to “achieve reunification” with the island, using force if necessary.

Analysts noted that the Pacific exercises specifically covered areas through which US naval support of Taiwan, in the event of conflict there, would have to pass.

“The projection of power is beyond China’s own defensive needs,” the Taiwanese official said, unless it wants to assert the entire first island chain is its internal waters.

The first island chain stretches from Japan to the Philippines and further down to Indonesia as is seen as a strategically vital line to both China and the US.

Some analysts say Beijing may be laying the groundwork for that with so-called “salami slicing” tactics, or pushing its claims and presence in small but unrelenting steps until it’s too late for an opponent to stop them.

Besides Taiwan, the waters inside that first island chain include the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands, called the Diaoyus in China and, like Taiwan, claimed by it as sovereign territory.

Chinese maritime forces have been increasing their visibility around those islands. According to statistics from the Japanese Defense Ministry, more than 100 Chinese vessels have appeared in the contiguous zone of the islands – the waters between them – for all but one of the past 24 months.

Also within the first island chain are disputed islands in the South China Sea that have seen violent flare-ups between Chinese and Philippine forces as Beijing tries to aggressively assert its claim over geographical features in the waterway through which trillions of dollars in trade passes each year.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called out Beijing tactics at a recent defense forum in Singapore.

“Any unilateral attempt to change the status quo in the South China Sea and the first island chain by force or coercion is unacceptable,” Hegseth said in a speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue, noting the persistent PLA presence around Taiwan and harassment and intimidation tactics in the South China Sea.

“It has to be clear to all that Beijing is credibly preparing to potentially use military force to alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific,” Hegseth said.

Reaching well into the Pacific

While Hegseth focused on China’s activities inside the first island chain, the PLA Navy’s recent movements have it operating carriers beyond the second island chain, which runs from the Japanese main island of Honshu southeast to the US territories of Saipan and Guam and then southwest to Yap, Palau and New Guinea.

Japanese officials reported last week two Chinese carrier groups operating well out into the open Pacific.

“It is believed that China is planning to improve the operational capability of its aircraft carriers and their ability to conduct operations in distant areas of the sea,” Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said last Monday, noting that China has demonstrated for the first time the ability to operate a carrier in the waters east of Iwo Jima and close to Japan’s easternmost island Minamitorishima.

“The PLA is demonstrating a capability for sustained carrier ops outside of the first island chain. This is certainly a significant milestone for the PLAN,” said Ray Powell, director of SeaLight, a maritime transparency project at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation.

“Beijing is using the PLAN to signal its growing maritime power and willingness to use it,” said Carl Schuster, a former US Navy captain and Hawaii-based analyst.

A PLA Navy press release on Tuesday acknowledged the carrier activity in waters well out into the Pacific and emphasized that they are defense-minded.

“The Chinese Navy’s Liaoning and Shandong aircraft carrier formations recently went to the Western Pacific and other waters to conduct training to test the troops’ far sea defense and joint combat capabilities. This is a routine training,” the release quoted Chinese navy spokesperson Wang Xuemeng as saying, adding that the exercises are “not targeting specific countries.”

Overall, Schuster said China is making a very clear statement with the series of exercises.

“Although Beijing has characterized these activities as routine training and trials, its neighbors did not miss the related strategic message: China has become a major naval power that can and will apply that power in their waters if it chooses,” Schuster said.

New ships, new reach

Only one other naval power, the United States, has the capability to operate two or more carrier strike groups at such distances.

US Navy carrier strike groups usually consist of the carrier plus cruisers and/or destroyers equipped with the Aegis missile system to defend the prized asset at their heart.

Analysts noted the Chinese carrier groups in the Pacific have a similar formation and include some of the PLAN’s newest and most powerful surface ships, large Type 055 guided-missile destroyers as well as new but smaller Type 052DM destroyers.

With a displacement of around 12,000 tons, the Type 055s are considered by many naval analysts to be the most powerful surface combatants afloat and a centerpiece of what is now the world’s largest naval force, a title the PLAN took from the US Navy around 2020.

A report Tuesday in the state-run Global Times said the PLAN may be looking to operate carrier strike groups in all the world’s oceans like the US Navy does.

Chinese military affairs expert Zhang Junshe told the tabloid that Beijing’s expanding overseas business and cultural interests justify its naval expansion, including the ability of carriers to operate far from Chinese shores.

New carrier training may be seen in the Indian and Atlantic oceans, Zhang said.

The newest carrier

The Fujian, China’s newest aircraft carrier, is likely to be pivotal in the any PLA Navy plans to operate well out into the Pacific or other oceans.

Estimated to displace 80,000 tons, it’s believed to the largest non-American warship ever built and able to carry a fleet of about 50 aircraft, up from 40 on Liaoning and Shandong.

During its sea trials in the Yellow Sea last month, the Fujian conducted aircraft take-off and landing operations, according to South Korean defense officials.

The trials marked the first time a Chinese carrier had conducted such an activity inside the Provisional Measures Zone (PMZ), a disputed area where China and South Korea have agreed to both oversee fisheries management, but where friction between Beijing and Seoul persists.

The take-off and landing operations are significant as it marks the first time the Fujian has done so at sea, using its electromagnetic catapult system.

The system allows carrier aircraft to take off with heavier weapon and fuel loads than those operating off the Shandong and Liaoning, which feature ski-jump type take-off ramps, enabling Fujian’s aircraft to strike enemy targets from greater distances.

The Fujian is expected to carry the naval version of the J-35, a twin-engine stealth fighter jet that can’t operate off a China’s older carriers.

And China is building another carrier, for now known as the Type 004, which is expected to not only employ EMALS technology, but also – unlike Fujian but like the USS Ford – be nuclear-powered.

Nuclear power will extend the range of Chinese naval air fleet significantly because, as the carrier doesn’t need to be refueled, it can stay at sea longer and farther away from replenishment tankers.

“Beijing’s carrier program, like its fleet, is expanding and improving rapidly, not just with new ships but with new aircraft. That trend signals Beijing’s maritime intent,” Schuster said.

But even with the new equipment and expanded range, analysts expressed caution on overestimating the PLA Navy’s abilities.

Compared to the US, which has been operating carrier strike groups in the far seas for decades, China is very much at the beginning of the learning curve.

“China’s carrier force is still very much developmental at this stage. Still, China is closing the gap,” said Powell, the SeaLight analyst.

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Since Israel began its concerted attack on Iran on Friday, calls for regime change in Iran have grown louder – from hawks in the United States Congress to Israeli officials and some Iranian activists abroad.

They argue that the Islamic Republic is significantly weakened, and that now is the time to capitalize on domestic unrest and public discontent to bring about the overthrow of its ruling clerical establishment, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at its head.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Fox News on Sunday that Israel’s operation “could certainly” result in regime change, as the government in Iran is “very weak.” He claimed that “80% of the people would throw these theological thugs out.”

“They shoot women because their hair is uncovered. They shoot students. They just suck the oxygen out from these brave and gifted people, the Iranian people,” Netanyahu said. “The decision to act, to rise up this time, is the decision of the Iranian people.”

Freedom of speech is heavily restricted in Iran, and there have been no major public calls from within the country to overthrow the regime following Israel’s attacks. But experts say Netanyahu may be misreading Iranian public sentiment – and that the strikes could backfire.

Israel’s attacks are more likely to direct public anger toward Israel, as domestic issues are briefly put aside while Iranians run for shelter, experts say.

Iran has in recent years seen nationwide protests against the regime, especially in 2022 and 2023, sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman arrested by Iran’s morality police for allegedly not wearing her headscarf properly. Many activists have since been detained, and authorities have sought repress further protest, instilling fear with a rise in criminal prosecutions and executions. Disgruntlement is widespread.

But experts, and Iranians currently living under Israeli bombardment, said that most Iranians don’t see Netanyahu or his government as having the solution to their domestic problems.

An uprising is very unlikely right now

“The people of Iran have fought against the Islamic Republic for years, striving for democracy and freedom,” the journalist said from Tehran. “But I believe that in the current situation, those who are terrified under missiles and explosions, trying to protect their children and loved ones, do not have the psychological or practical capacity to ‘take to the streets.’ The streets, which are constantly under attack, are now emptier than ever.”

“Moreover, from the public’s perspective, the Islamic Republic has not yet become weak enough to collapse through protests. Any action against the regime during wartime will lead to brutal repression,” the journalist said, adding that “now the regime has free rein to label anyone it wants as an Israeli spy.”

Others say during a time of national crisis, people are more likely to favor unity, no matter how dissatisfied they are. To them, foreign intervention is a red line.

“There is no support that they will give to Netanyahu’s war on themselves and their society. If anything, they are organizing now to help each other defend their country,” Azizi said, referring to anti-regime Iranians. “Any idea that this will lead to a popular uprising of some sort that will bring down the regime has very little basis in reality.”

Even in the diaspora, where many anti-regime Iranians live, there is anger at Israel’s actions, with activists calling for unity in the face of Israel’s assault.

Narges Mohammadi, one of Iran’s most prominent human rights activists and 2023 Nobel Peace Prize winner, who has spent years in prison in Tehran on what supporters say are politically motivated charges, posted on X: “Iranian Civil Society Says No to War!”

She and other Iranian activists, including fellow Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi and filmmakers Jafar Panahi and Mohammad Rasoulof, all of whom have been pursued by the regime for their activism, wrote a joint opinion piece in France’s Le Monde newspaper Monday calling for an end to the war – but they also demanded that Iran stop enrichment of uranium and that the regime step down.

“This conflict not only destroys infrastructure and claims civilian lives but also constitutes a serious threat to the very foundations of human civilization,” they wrote.

In recent years, Israel has strengthened ties with Reza Pahlavi, the US-based son of Iran’s deposed monarch. Pahlavi voiced support for Israel’s actions, drawing praise from some in the Iranian diaspora and accusations of betrayal from others.

“Soon in Tehran,” Israeli Minister of Diaspora Affairs Amichai Chikli posted on X on Friday, along with a picture of himself shaking hands with a smiling Pahlavi. Pahlavi told BBC News on Sunday that Israel’s conflict with Iran was an opportunity to bring down the Iranian regime.

“The ultimate solution is regime change,” he said. “Now, we have an opportunity, because this regime is at its weakest point. There’s (a) window in which we can operate and hopefully liberate our country.”

His US-backed father had warm ties with Israel before he was overthrown by the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

‘Region cannot be reshaped through force’

Israel has pounded Iran with strikes for four days, striking residential areas and the country’s civilian infrastructure. At least 224 people have been killed in the country since hostilities began Friday, the health ministry said Sunday, according to state media.

Israel has said it is doing so to stop the Islamic Republic from acquiring a nuclear weapon and has targeted several of the country’s nuclear sites, but civilians appear to have borne the brunt of the attacks.

Iran has retaliated by firing 370 ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones at Israel, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office said. By Monday morning, 24 people had been killed in Israel and 592 others had been wounded.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Monday that “the residents of Tehran will pay the price,” later clarifying that Israel didn’t intend to harm civilians.

Israeli officials “don’t even pretend” to care about the safety of Iranian civilians, said Azizi, the Iran expert.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called for unity, in a statement released through state media. “The people of Iran must join hands and stand strong against the aggression that has been launched against us,” Pezeshkian said, adding that the Iranians were “not the aggressors” and defending Iran’s right to a peaceful nuclear program.

In its operation, Israel has taken out some of Iran’s most senior military officials, including in the powerful Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Even if the leadership changes, it may not look like what Netanyahu hopes for, Iran experts said.

“Regime change is a possibility, just not the kind that Netanyahu has in mind,” Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of the Amwaj news outlet, wrote on X. “Among potential medium-term outcomes of Israel’s war on Iran: military-led administration, possibly armed with nuclear weapons.”

Netanyahu’s call for regime change by force has also alarmed other countries in the region.

Speaking to the Paris-based journal Le Grand Continent, Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the president of the United Arab Emirates, warned that “when a country feels under attack, nationalism tends to intensify.”

Asked about Netanyahu’s call for an uprising in Iran, Gargash said: “The region cannot be reshaped through force and confrontation. We may be able to resolve some problems in the short term, but this will lead to others that are at least as serious.”.

“Of course, we’re glad to see the leaders of this regime – whose hands are stained with the blood of our children – killed. But the death of ordinary people is painful.”

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