The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs on Monday as investors await key inflation data to provide further clues about whether this year’s market rally is sustainable. Earnings from some major financial giants and consumer companies are also on the docket.

The broad market index ended the day up 0.1% at 5,572.85, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.28% to 18,403.74. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 31 points lower, or 0.08%, at 39,344.79.

The S&P 500 is coming off its fourth positive week in the last five amid ongoing optimism that easing inflation — and any pockets of weakness in the economy — could lead to a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

The June consumer price index, which will be released Thursday, could bolster those hopes if the headline number shows a slight improvement. Producer price index data will be released Friday.

Last week, labor data reflected a slightly cooling jobs market, spurring expectations of a rate cut. Although the U.S. economy added more jobs in June than anticipated, there was also an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate, to 4.1% from 4%. Traders are currently expecting two interest rate cuts in 2024, with the first in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

“We believe the fundamental backdrop remains supportive for equities, driven by solid economic and earnings growth, interest rate cuts, and rising investment in AI,” UBS strategist Vincent Heaney wrote in a Monday note.

PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines are set to post results on Thursday. Then, a slew of major banks, including Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, will kick off second-quarter earnings season on Friday.

The U.S. Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates before year’s end. That could make future trips abroad more expensive for the nation’s travelers.

That’s due to how interest-rate policy affects the strength of the U.S. dollar.

Here’s the basic idea: An environment of rising U.S. interest rates relative to those in other nations is generally “dollar positive,” said Jonathan Petersen, senior markets economist and foreign exchange specialist at Capital Economics.

In other words, rising rates underpin a stronger U.S. dollar versus foreign currencies. Americans can buy more stuff with their money overseas.

The opposite dynamic — falling interest rates — tends to be “dollar negative,” Petersen said. A weaker dollar means Americans can buy less abroad.

Fed officials in June signaled they expect to cut rates once in 2024 and four additional times in 2025.

“Our expectation for now is the dollar will come under more pressure next year,” Petersen said.

However, that’s not necessarily a foregone conclusion. Some financial experts think the dollar’s strength may have staying power.

“There have been quite a few headlines calling for the U.S. dollar’s demise,” Richard Madigan, chief investment officer at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, wrote in a recent note. “I continue to believe the dollar remains the one-eyed man in the land of the blind.”

The Fed started raising interest rates aggressively in March 2022 to tame high pandemic-era inflation. By July 2023, the central bank had raised rates to their highest level in 23 years.

The dollar’s strength surged against that backdrop.

The Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index is higher than at any pre-pandemic point dating to at least 2006, when the central bank started tracking such data. The index gauges the dollar’s appreciation relative to currencies of the nation’s main trading partners such as the euro, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen.

For example, in July 2022, the U.S. dollar reached parity with the euro for the first time in 20 years, meaning they had a 1:1 exchange rate. (The euro has since rebounded a bit.)

In early July, the U.S. dollar hit its strongest level against the yen in 38 years.

A strong U.S. dollar gives “a discount on everything you’re purchasing while you’re abroad,” Petersen said.

“In a sense, it’s never been cheaper to go to Japan,” he added.

A record number of Americans visited Japan in April, according to the Asian nation’s tourism board. Benjamin Atwater, a communications specialist at InsideAsia Tours, a travel agency, attributes that partly to the financial incentive bestowed by a strong dollar.

In fact, he personally recently extended a work trip to Japan by a week and a half — instead of opting to travel elsewhere in Asia — largely because of the favorable exchange rate.

Everything from meals, hotels, souvenirs and the rental car were a “great value,” said Atwater, who lives in Denver and has long wanted to travel to Japan.

“It was always portrayed as one of the most expensive places you can go, [but] I was getting some of best steaks I’ve ever had for like $12,” he said.

In reality, the dynamics driving dollar fluctuations are more complex than whether the Fed raises or lowers interest rates.

The differential in U.S. rates versus other nations is what’s significant, economists said. Fed policy doesn’t exist in a vacuum: Other central banks are also simultaneously making interest-rate choices.

The European Central Bank cut interest rates in June, for example. Meanwhile, the Fed has kept rates higher for longer than many forecasters anticipated — meaning the rate differential between the U.S. and Europe has widened, helping support the dollar.

“The Fed’s on hold, other central banks are getting ready to ease and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) seems stuck in a moment,” J.P. Morgan’s Madigan wrote.

“If Japan wants the yen to stabilize, policy rates need to move higher,” he added. “That doesn’t appear to be happening anytime soon. With the ECB expected to cut ahead of the Fed, I expect current euro weakness to also prevail.”

This is happening against the backdrop of a relatively strong U.S. economy, which also generally supports a strong dollar, Petersen said. At a high level, a strong economy means there will generally be higher economic growth and/or inflation, which means a greater likelihood the Fed will keep interest rates relatively high, he said.

A strong economy also typically incentivizes foreigners to park more money in the U.S., he said.

For example, investors generally get a better return on cash when interest rates are high. If an investor in Europe or Asia were getting perhaps 1% or 2% on bank account holdings while such holdings in the U.S. were yielding 5%, that investor might shift some money to the U.S., Petersen said.

Or, an investor might want more to hold more of their portfolio in U.S. rather than European stocks if the economic growth outlook wasn’t good in Europe, he said.

In such cases, foreigners buy dollar-denominated financial assets. They’d sell their local currency and buy the dollar, a process that ultimately bids up the dollar’s strength, Petersen said.

Exchange rates “all come down to capital flows,” he said.

While these dynamics also hold true in emerging markets, currency fluctuations can be more volatile than in developed nations due to factors like political shocks and risks to commodity prices like those of oil, he added.

You’ll soon have to pay more if you want to shop at Costco.

The membership-based warehouse club said Wednesday that it will increase its membership fee by $5 in the U.S. and Canada as of Sept. 1. That’s an increase to $65 from $60 for annual memberships. Its higher-tier plan, called “Executive Membership,” will increase to $130 a year from $120.

Costco said the fee increases would affect around 52 million memberships, a little over half of which are executive memberships.

Shares rose about 2% in extended trading Wednesday.

It marks Costco’s first membership rate increase since June 2017. On average, the company has raised rates roughly every five and a half years — which would have put Costco on track to raise the fee in late 2022 or early 2023.

However, Costco held off on raising fees prior to now. In interviews with CNBC, CEO Craig Jelinek previously said it wasn’t the right time as consumers dealt with high inflation. The company’s CFO Richard Galanti made similar comments on prior earnings calls.

Costco relies on membership fees to drive most of its revenue and help keep merchandise prices low. Its rival, Walmart-owned Sam’s Club, hiked its own membership fee in 2022 for the first time in nine years. Yet even after the fee bump, a Sam’s Club membership was cheaper — at $50 for club members and $110 for members of its higher-tier level, “Plus,” on an annual basis. At BJ’s Wholesale, annual membership fees are $55 and $110, for club members and its own higher tier, respectively.

Costco said it stepped up enforcement last year to make sure shoppers weren’t using other members’ cards. It added an extra check for memberships in self-checkout aisles. The moves were reminiscent of Netflix, which has also cracked down on people who use its service without paying.

The U.S. Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates before year’s end. That could make future trips abroad more expensive for the nation’s travelers.

That’s due to how interest-rate policy affects the strength of the U.S. dollar.

Here’s the basic idea: An environment of rising U.S. interest rates relative to those in other nations is generally “dollar positive,” said Jonathan Petersen, senior markets economist and foreign exchange specialist at Capital Economics.

In other words, rising rates underpin a stronger U.S. dollar versus foreign currencies. Americans can buy more stuff with their money overseas.

The opposite dynamic — falling interest rates — tends to be “dollar negative,” Petersen said. A weaker dollar means Americans can buy less abroad.

Fed officials in June signaled they expect to cut rates once in 2024 and four additional times in 2025.

“Our expectation for now is the dollar will come under more pressure next year,” Petersen said.

However, that’s not necessarily a foregone conclusion. Some financial experts think the dollar’s strength may have staying power.

“There have been quite a few headlines calling for the U.S. dollar’s demise,” Richard Madigan, chief investment officer at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, wrote in a recent note. “I continue to believe the dollar remains the one-eyed man in the land of the blind.”

Why the U.S. dollar gives a ‘discount’ overseas

The Fed started raising interest rates aggressively in March 2022 to tame high pandemic-era inflation. By July 2023, the central bank had raised rates to their highest level in 23 years.

The dollar’s strength surged against that backdrop.

The Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index is higher than at any pre-pandemic point dating to at least 2006, when the central bank started tracking such data. The index gauges the dollar’s appreciation relative to currencies of the nation’s main trading partners such as the euro, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen.

For example, in July 2022, the U.S. dollar reached parity with the euro for the first time in 20 years, meaning they had a 1:1 exchange rate. (The euro has since rebounded a bit.)

In early July, the U.S. dollar hit its strongest level against the yen in 38 years.

A strong U.S. dollar gives “a discount on everything you’re purchasing while you’re abroad,” Petersen said.

“In a sense, it’s never been cheaper to go to Japan,” he added.

A record number of Americans visited Japan in April, according to the Asian nation’s tourism board. Benjamin Atwater, a communications specialist at InsideAsia Tours, a travel agency, attributes that partly to the financial incentive bestowed by a strong dollar.

In fact, he personally recently extended a work trip to Japan by a week and a half — instead of opting to travel elsewhere in Asia — largely because of the favorable exchange rate.

Everything from meals, hotels, souvenirs and the rental car were a “great value,” said Atwater, who lives in Denver and has long wanted to travel to Japan.

“It was always portrayed as one of the most expensive places you can go, [but] I was getting some of best steaks I’ve ever had for like $12,” he said.

In reality, the dynamics driving dollar fluctuations are more complex than whether the Fed raises or lowers interest rates.

The differential in U.S. rates versus other nations is what’s significant, economists said. Fed policy doesn’t exist in a vacuum: Other central banks are also simultaneously making interest-rate choices.

The European Central Bank cut interest rates in June, for example. Meanwhile, the Fed has kept rates higher for longer than many forecasters anticipated — meaning the rate differential between the U.S. and Europe has widened, helping support the dollar.

“The Fed’s on hold, other central banks are getting ready to ease and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) seems stuck in a moment,” J.P. Morgan’s Madigan wrote.

“If Japan wants the yen to stabilize, policy rates need to move higher,” he added. “That doesn’t appear to be happening anytime soon. With the ECB expected to cut ahead of the Fed, I expect current euro weakness to also prevail.”

This is happening against the backdrop of a relatively strong U.S. economy, which also generally supports a strong dollar, Petersen said. At a high level, a strong economy means there will generally be higher economic growth and/or inflation, which means a greater likelihood the Fed will keep interest rates relatively high, he said.

A strong economy also typically incentivizes foreigners to park more money in the U.S., he said.

For example, investors generally get a better return on cash when interest rates are high. If an investor in Europe or Asia were getting perhaps 1% or 2% on bank account holdings while such holdings in the U.S. were yielding 5%, that investor might shift some money to the U.S., Petersen said.

Or, an investor might want more to hold more of their portfolio in U.S. rather than European stocks if the economic growth outlook wasn’t good in Europe, he said.

In such cases, foreigners buy dollar-denominated financial assets. They’d sell their local currency and buy the dollar, a process that ultimately bids up the dollar’s strength, Petersen said.

Exchange rates “all come down to capital flows,” he said.

While these dynamics also hold true in emerging markets, currency fluctuations can be more volatile than in developed nations due to factors like political shocks and risks to commodity prices like those of oil, he added.

The S&P 500 climbed Wednesday to a fresh record, breaking above 5,600 for the first time, as a sharp rise in semiconductor stocks led the market higher.

The broad market index jumped 1.02%, closing at 5,633.91, and notching a seventh straight day of gains. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.18%, also hitting an all-time high and ending at 18,647.45. It was the 37th record close in 2024 for the S&P 500, and the 27th for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 429.39 points, or 1.09%, to close at 39,721.36.

Chip stocks were among the largest winners of the session. Taiwan Semiconductor added 3.5% after revenue from April to June came in ahead of Wall Street estimates. Peer chip firm Qualcomm ticked higher by 0.8%, and Broadcom rose about 0.7%. Artificial intelligence darling Nvidia climbed 2.7%.

Those moves come as investors await fresh inflation figures on Thursday with the release of the June consumer price index report. The data follows comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday and Wednesday that has fueled investor hopes for a rate cut in the second half of the year.

“There are some things out there that look kind of frothy, but there’s no indication yet that [megacap technology] earnings can’t support those valuations,” said Scott Welch, chief investment officer at Certuity. “It’s important to remember that seven to 10 stocks constitute 30% to 40% of the S&P 500 market cap … if there’s any slippage it’s going to have an amplified effect.”

Economists polled by Dow Jones expect a 0.1% month-over-month advance and a 3.1% year-on-year gain. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, is forecast to have expanded 0.2% from the prior month and 3.4% from a year earlier. The producer price index is set for release Friday.