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With the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) hitting all-time highs and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) trying hard to get there, are the broader indexes overstretched and ready to snap?

At the moment, all indications point to a bullish move. Investors are anxiously awaiting the June CPI data point that drops on Thursday. If it comes in much hotter than expected, there’s a chance of a selloff. But that could change during the trading day; how the market closes is more important.

The Stock Market Big Picture

Overall, the macro picture is bullish. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are trading well above their 20-day simple moving average (SMA). This is predominantly driven by the price action in the Magnificent Seven stocks. Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA), two stocks hit hard earlier this year, have overcome their tailwinds and are trending higher.

The bullish outlook may not be as rosy outside of the large-cap AI-related world. Look at the daily chart of the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index ($SPXEW) below.

CHART 1. THE S&P 500 EQUAL-WEIGHTED INDEX ON THE VERGE OF BREAKING OUT? Look for the index to break above the triangle pattern and the bullish MACD crossover to confirm the market’s bullish move.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.Though not hopeless, it’s still got some room to cover before hitting new highs. $SPXEW is consolidating in a large triangle pattern and has avoided breaking below the lower side thus far. It’s been closer to the lower line in the last few days, but Wednesday’s 0.89% rise has brought it closer to the pattern’s upper side. This is something to watch closely.

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) oscillator in the lower panel shows the lack of upside momentum at present. However, the histogram has moved just above the zero line, and it looks like the MACD line has just crossed above its signal line. If this crossover follows through, there’s a chance $SPXEW could break through the upper triangle line and reach its all-time high. This would be a further optimistic indication of the overall bullishness of the equity market.

If you isolate the Technology sector and look at the Nasdaq 100 Equal-Weighted index ($NDXE) chart, you’ll see that it’s inching up towards hitting new closing highs. However, the Nasdaq 100 index ($NDX) is outperforming $NDXE by about 17%.

CHART 2. NASDAQ 100 EQUAL-WEIGHTED INDEX HITS NEW HIGHS. In spite of hitting new highs, the Nasdaq 100 index is outperforming the Nasdaq Equal Weighted index by about 17%.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

It’s all about tech stocks. Technology has been the best-performing sector for the last year. If you look at sector performance for the past year, all 11 S&P sectors are green—yes, even Real Estate.

The bullish outlook is still in play from a bird’s eye perspective. Keep a close eye on the charts of the broader indexes. If they break below significant moving average support levels, objectively analyze your holdings to see if it makes sense to sell them.

It’s All About Interest Rate Cuts

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a September rate cut continues to increase, as does one of a second rate cut in December. The stock market has priced in these cuts even though Fed Chair Powell, in his recent testimony, didn’t indicate when rate cuts will start.

There’s still more data before the September meeting, so have your ChartLists within easy reach. For as long as investors are speculating rate cuts, the market will probably keep moving the way it has been. But when those rate cuts arrive, things may change. Consider watching the bond market, which can often be a leading indicator of when interest rate cuts will start.

The weekly chart of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) below shows that bond prices haven’t made a decisive move yet. They will probably remain this way until the timing of rate cuts is crystal clear.

CHART 3. WEEKLY CHART OF TLT. Bond prices are still close to their five-year low. When the Fed cuts interest rates, TLT could see upside movement.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

TLT is trading close to its five-year lows. If TLT remains above the blue-dashed trendline, investors speculate that interest rate hikes will probably happen. If TLT breaks below the trendline and declines, it would indicate that rate cuts aren’t on the table yet.

Closing Position

Yes, the stock market is getting toppy. The extended bull run has been mainly driven by rate cut anticipation. Enjoy the bullish stock market ride, but know when to jump off.

Charts to add to your ChartLists:

S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index ($SPXEW)

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)



Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this exclusive StockCharts TV video, Joe shows an RSI strategy that offered a few opportunities to get into AAPL before the big breakout. He then highlights what to watch for in TSLA, which may provide the same type of RSI setup sometime over the next week or so; this strategy allows you to enter an already established trend. He also looks at a few sector charts that look intriguing, before going on to cover the stock requests that came through this week (including FSLR, DELL, and more).

This video was originally published on July 10, 2024. Click this link to watch on StockCharts TV.

Archived videos from Joe are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

Here are some observations from golf that you might want to take into consideration.

1. I cannot begin to count the number of times while playing golf that someone thinks they are “away” when the distance between their ball and the cup versus the other person’s ball and the cup are significantly different – and the one who thinks they are away are not. Spatial orientation is a gift – some have it, some do not. Here’s how to get a much better estimate as to who is away:

A. Estimate the midpoint between the two balls (this could also be a problem with the same person who is wrong about who is away in the first place) by standing as close to that midpoint as you can.

B. Then, with your putter aligned perpendicular to the imaginary line between the balls (again this might be a problem for some) you can then see which side of the cup the perpendicular bisector is on. The side of the cup that it is on is the same side as the ball that is further from the cup.

As you can see from the graphic below, Ball A is further from the cup than Ball B because the perpendicular bisector passes by the cup on the Ball A side.

2. I often hear that, when on an elevated tee box where the green is significantly below the level of the tee box, that you should automatically take off one club or two clubs. Well, I agree to this, sort of, but one needs to understand that it also depends upon which golf club you are going to use when the green and the tee box are essentially level.

Let’s say that the distance from tee to center of the green is 165 yards. Normally, for me that would be a 5-iron, but for a professional golfer it might be a sand wedge. That is a big difference in clubs plus a big difference in ball trajectory.

The much steeper (taller) trajectory (wedge) will be dropping much more for distance traveled when descending over the green than the longer iron. Therefore a shorter iron (wedge) would not need to reduce the club selection nearly as much as a longer iron, and in some cases maybe not at all.

I like to call his more Ordinate than Abscissa, but that’s another story.

3. Personally, I want the pin removed from the cup whenever I am using a putter while off the green. While the pin might assist with an over-powered shot, those shots are usually made with a wedge by a miss-hit. Chances are you won’t “blade” a putter.

If you have ever played billiards, you probably understand the transfer of “English” that a ball can make with other balls or the rails. A putted golf ball is no different and should always have top-spin. If you think of that top-spin English transferring to the pin, then it theoretically will cause the ball to rise slightly – or, said a little differently (and probably more accurately), it will slow the gravitational affect when the ball is over the hole after bouncing off the pin. Hitting the pin anywhere other than dead center will cause the ball to move to the side (A-C). The side of the cup at that point is slightly closer (by the diameter of the pin) than the back of the cup (A-B), where theoretically, the ball would go with the pin removed. Please ignore hand-drawn errors.

Hence, if using your putter while off the green, I think you have a better chance of making it into the cup by removing the pin. The exception is that you still have to deal with that “worst” distance in golf, which is between your ears. When the ball is rolling on the green in an appropriate speed so that if you miss the hole, it will go 1-2 feet beyond. In that case, leaving the pin in cannot possibly assist in anyway. It could, however, cause to you bounce off the pin and not go in the hole.

4. Plumbing the line with the putter is another concept I truly just do not understand. If the goal is to see a line directly between the ball and the hole to assist in playing a break, then it sort of makes sense if being able to see the line while standing behind the ball is the problem in the first place. Other than that, I don’t see any productive information from it. There is no math involved, I’m certain.

Conclusions: Many things in golf can be resolved with simple math (geometry in this case). Many of the ideas presented here are controversial and certainly arguable, but hopefully this has shed some light on something you may have never considered. And to add perspective, none of this has helped my game.

Fore!

Some comments on Projectile Motion follow…

In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, Dave completes a three-part series based on the successful “Top Ten Charts” episodes of The Final Bar. Today, he wraps the series with talks about risk management and how to use technical analysis tools to better manage risk vs. reward. He reviews recent examples and how a good risk management can help you minimize downside and let your winners run!

See Dave and Grayson Roze’s picks for May 2024, June 2024, and July 2024 here! And watch part 1 and part 2 of this series here!

This video originally premiered on July 11, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

This is a complimentary excerpt from the subscriber-only DecisionPoint Alert.

NVIDIA (NVDA) broke down today in what looks like an echo of last month’s pullback. There is a short-term double top with price resting on the confirmation line. This could just be a one day event; however, if we assume that a correction has begun, we see first support at about 118.00, which marks a -17% decline. The next most obvious support is at about 97.00, a decline of about -32%.

The primary problem with NVDA is the steep parabolic advance from the 2022 low. Such advances beg for correction, and we can see three previous corrections on this chart.

As the title noted, all the Magnificent 7 appear to entering corrections.


Today, the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) 20-day EMA crossed up through the 50-day EMA (Silver Cross), generating an IT Trend Model BUY Signal. Like so many other indexes, IWM is in a narrow trading range that generates whipsaw signal changes, but the strength of today’s move implies a probable upside breakout from that range.

The weekly chart shows a PMO rising above the zero line, but we now see a lot of congestion in 2021 that will provide resistance to further advance. That is not to say further advance is not possible, but that it will possibly be more difficult.

Also today, the Retail ETF (XRT) 20-day EMA crossed up through the 50-day EMA (Silver Cross), generating an IT Trend Model BUY Signal. Again we have the narrow trading range and potential for whipsaw. In fact, XRT switched to NEUTRAL two days ago. Nevertheless, this seems to be an authentic change of direction, considering that it is a high-volume reversal on a day when part of the market was falling apart.

The weekly chart doesn’t reflect much confirmation regarding this one-day change of direction, but the weekly PMO is flat above the zero line, which is encouraging.

Conclusion: Mega-cap stocks began to break down today, but other areas of the market have newfound strength. It is only one day of this ‘bifurcation’ between smaller-caps and mega-caps, but a broadening of the rally could preserve the integrity of this bull market.


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Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.


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A manhunt is underway in north London for a man suspected of being armed with a crossbow, after three women were killed Tuesday evening.

Police said they were searching for a 26-year-old man, named as Kyle Clifford, in connection with the deaths, who could be in north London or the neighboring county of Hertfordshire.

Police were called to a house in Bushey, Hertfordshire, on Tuesday evening, where they found three seriously injured women.

All the women, who are believed to be related, later died from their injuries, according to police. According to police, they are aged 25, 28 and 61, and were killed in what is believed to have been a “targeted incident.”

A crossbow is believed to have been used in the triple murder, though police said Wednesday that other weapons may also have been used.

Police have asked the public not to approach the suspect.

British Home Secretary Yvette Cooper has said she is being kept “fully updated” by police on the ongoing manhunt.

“The loss of three women’s lives in Bushey last night is truly shocking. My thoughts are with the family & friends of those who have been killed & with the community,” Cooper wrote on X Wednesday.

“I am being kept fully updated. I urge people to support Hertfordshire Police with any information about this case,” she added.

A neighbor of the victims said she “would see them every day passing by and they would say good morning,” according to PA Media.

“It’s really sad what’s happened, very shocking,” she added.

This is a breaking news story, and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Three days after the second round of France’s snap parliamentary election ended in gridlock, President Emmanuel Macron broke his silence to urge mainstream parties to form a solid majority in the National Assembly and shut out the extremes.

France’s vote, which Macron unexpectedly called after his party was trounced by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party in last month’s European elections, has tipped France into political limbo, after none of the three main blocs came close to forming an absolute majority.

In an open letter to the French people published Wednesday, Macron called on parties with “republican values” – understood to exclude parties on the far left and far right – to form a coalition large enough to pass laws in parliament.

Macron’s comments suggest he is unwilling to work with the more extreme part of the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition, which secured the most seats in the French parliament in Sunday’s second-round vote, but not enough to govern independently.

“I call on all political forces that recognize themselves in republican institutions, the rule of law, parliamentarianism, a European orientation and the defense of French independence, to engage in sincere and loyal dialogue to build a solid majority, necessarily plural, for the country,” wrote Macron.

Macron said it was “in light of these principles” that he will decide on the appointment of France’s next prime minister. “This means giving the political forces a little time to build these compromises with serenity and respect for each other,” he said.

The NFP won 182 seats in the National Assembly, making it the largest group in the 577-seat parliament. Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance, which trailed in a distant third in the first round, mounted a strong recovery to win 163 seats. And the RN and its allies, despite leading the first round, won 143 seats.

It is customary for the French president to appoint a prime minister from the largest parliamentary group – in this case the NFP – and ask it to form a government.

But Macron and his Ensemble allies have repeatedly refused to enter into coalition with the far-left France Unbowed, the largest single party within the NFP, and have accused its leader, the 72-year-old firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, of being just as extreme and unfit to govern as figures on the far right.

The NFP formed days after Macron called the snap vote, and chose its name in an attempt to resurrect the original Popular Front that blocked the far right from gaining power in 1936. After tactical voting and political bargaining between centrist and left-wing voters, the NFP managed the same feat in Sunday’s second round.

But the NFP does not speak with a single voice. The various parties in the coalition straddle vast ideological ground, from the far-left France Unbowed to the more moderate Place Publique and Socialist parties. When the shock result was announced, each party celebrated separately, and the bloc still has not nominated a leader to become prime minister.

Mélenchon has stated his intention to govern France. In a victory speech Sunday evening near Stalingrad Square in Paris, he said Macron “has the duty” to ask the NFP to form a government.

Unlike its neighbors Italy and Germany, France – with its presidential system – lacks the culture of coalition-building and compromise, meaning the formation of a new government could take weeks and prove fleeting.

Newly-elected members of parliament, called “deputies,” are scheduled to take their seats for the first time on July 18. But without a clear majority, a minority government faces the risk of no-confidence votes, which could lead to several governments replacing each other in quick succession.

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal’s offer to resign was on Monday rejected by Macron, leaving him in place in a caretaker role until the new government is formed.

“The current government will continue to exercise its responsibilities, then take care of day-to-day business in accordance with republican tradition,” Macron said, in an attempt to calm the situation two weeks out from the Olympic Games’ opening ceremony in Paris.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

China is a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war against Ukraine, NATO leaders said Wednesday, as the defense alliance hardens its stance on Beijing and the “systemic challenges” they say it poses to their countries’ security.

The joint declaration marks NATO’s most pointed tone yet on China’s role in a war that has galvanized the 75-year-old bloc, which celebrated its anniversary this week at a three-day leaders’ summit in Washington hosted by US President Joe Biden.

China’s “no limits” partnership with Russia and its “large-scale support for Russia’s defense industrial base” are enabling Moscow to wage its war, the NATO leaders’ statement said, as they urged Beijing to “cease all material and political support to Russia’s war effort.”

The US and European leaders in recent months have accused China of bolstering Russia’s defense sector with the export of dual-use goods. Beijing has denied supplying weaponry and maintains it keeps strict controls on such goods.

The NATO leaders also elaborated to a greater extent than in the past on concerns over China’s growing capabilities and activities in outer space, and reiterated their previous unease about what they called Beijing’s “malicious cyber and hybrid activities,” including disinformation, and “rapidly” expanding nuclear arsenal.

“We remain open to constructive engagement with the PRC, including to build reciprocal transparency with the view of safeguarding the Alliance’s security interests,” the statement said, referring to China by the initials of its official name.

“At the same time, we are boosting our shared awareness, enhancing our resilience and preparedness, and protecting against the PRC’s coercive tactics and efforts to divide the Alliance.”

The NATO leaders’ declaration Wednesday comes as the 32-member alliance – historically focused on security in North America and Europe – has in recent years upped its engagement with US allies in Asia and increasingly seen its security as linked to the region, even as member countries have pursued divergent policies toward China.

For the third consecutive year, leaders of New Zealand, Japan and South Korea attended the NATO leaders’ summit in another sign of closer ties between the bloc and those countries, as well as Australia.

China and Russia’s tightening ties

Beijing has deepened political, economic and military ties with Moscow since President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in February 2022 declared a “no limits” partnership – and their shared opposition to what they said was NATO’s expansion – during the Russian leader’s visit to the Chinese capital, weeks before his full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

China has surpassed the European Union to become Russia’s top trade partner, offering a crucial lifeline to its economy, which has been heavily sanctioned in the wake of that invasion, while the two nuclear-armed neighbors have continued to hold joint military exercises.

Meanwhile, China has claimed neutrality in the war and sought to posit itself as a potential peace broker, even as the US and European leaders have become increasingly alarmed about what they say is Beijing’s backing of Moscow through its economic and diplomatic support, as well as the provision of dual-use goods.

On Thursday, China criticized the NATO statement as “filled with Cold War mentality and belligerent rhetoric,” and said it was “provocative with obvious lies and smears.”

“China is not the creator to the Ukraine crisis. China’s position on Ukraine is open and aboveboard. We aim to promote peace talks and seek political settlement,” a statement from its mission to the European Union said.

The Chinese statement also reiterated Beijing’s position that it has never provided lethal weapons in the conflict and has strict dual-use export controls, defending its trade with Russia as “normal.”

The US and European leaders have in recent months raised alarm that such exports are revitalizing Russia’s defense sector and allowing it to survive despite hefty international sanctions. The US has said that dual-use exports have specifically enabled the production of tanks, munitions and armored vehicles.

Both the US and the EU have sanctioned Chinese entities they allege are supporting the war effort.

NATO’s increasing focus on Asia

The NATO leaders’ declaration is the latest step in what has been the bloc’s gradual hardening of tone on China in recent years.

NATO leaders first mentioned the need to jointly address “opportunities and challenges” posed by China in a 2019 declaration, before moving to refer to “systemic challenges” the country poses in 2021.

That shift has come alongside an increased US policy focus on the Indo-Pacific amid a deepening rivalry with Beijing as China under Xi’s leadership has grown increasingly aggressive in the region and in its broader foreign policy.

NATO’s attention on Asia has also been accelerated over the past two and a half years by hardening geopolitical fault lines in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Kremlin’s tightening relationship with not only China but also North Korea and Iran.

NATO leaders on Wednesday also said Pyongyang and Tehran were “fueling” Russia’s war through “direct military support,” and condemned North Korea’s exports of “artillery shells and ballistic missiles” to Russia – which multiple governments say they have tracked since last year when Putin hosted North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in the Russian Far East.

“The Indo-Pacific is important for NATO, given that developments in that region directly affect Euro-Atlantic security,” the leaders said in their declaration.

“We are strengthening dialogue to tackle cross-regional challenges and are enhancing our practical cooperation, including through flagship projects in the areas of supporting Ukraine, cyber defense, countering disinformation, and technology,” it said.

Beijing has watched warily as NATO’s engagement grows with other powers in the Asia-Pacific. China is widely seen by observers as hoping to be the dominant force in the region and to push back on the US presence there, as Washington bolsters its longstanding Indo-Pacific security partnerships and interests.

China and Russia have also converged over their shared opposition to NATO, part of a broader aspiration from both to reshape a world order they see as unfairly dominated by the US, and both have blamed the Western security alliance for provoking Moscow to invade Ukraine.

In its statement Thursday, Beijing’s EU mission called on NATO to “correct its wrong perception of China,” and “abandon the Cold War mentality and zero-sum game.”

“The Asia-Pacific region is a place for peaceful development, not a wrestling ground for geopolitical competition … NATO should not become the disrupter of peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific,” the statement said.

This story has been updated with additional information.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Pakistan is extending the stay of nearly 1.5 million registered Afghan refugees – but its mass deportation of “illegal immigrants” will continue, authorities said.

Afghan refugees in Pakistan with Proof of Registration (POR) cards will be able to stay in the country until June 30, 2025, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s office said Wednesday.

The fate of 1.45 million refugees whose PORs expired at the end of June had previously been in doubt, with many fearing they’d be deported.

News of the extension came one day after the United Nations’ high commissioner for refugees visited Afghanistan and urged Pakistan to extend the POR cards.

“Glad that Pakistan’s tradition of hospitality is maintained,” Filippo Grandi wrote on X Thursday.

But Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs disputed the UN’s claims that Islamabad had put on hold its plan announced last October to deport undocumented Afghan refugees.

Pakistan is home to one of the world’s largest refugee populations – most of them from Afghanistan. But the country has not always welcomed Afghan refugees, subjecting them to hostile living conditions and threatening deportation over the years.

More than 3 million Afghan refugees, including registered refugees and more than 800,000 undocumented people were living in Pakistan as of March 2024, according to UNHCR data.

Some fled their home country decades ago during the Soviet invasion, while other Afghans sought refuge in Pakistan when the Taliban retook Afghanistan in 2021, implementing its oppressive rule.

Last October, Pakistan gave undocumented Afghans weeks to leave or face deportation, claiming Afghan nationals carried out 14 of 24 major terrorist attacks in Pakistan last year. Between September 15, 2023 and the end of June, about 650,000 Afghans had returned home, according to the UNHCR. Some 32,000 of them were deported.

They’re returning to a country under the control of a militant regime that has imposed a form of gender apartheid and where millions live in poverty.

A UN report published Tuesday detailed human rights violations by the Taliban’s so-called morality police – which have disproportionately targeted women and girls – creating a “climate of fear and intimidation” in Afghanistan.

Moniza Kakar, a lawyer who helps Afghan migrants navigate Pakistan’s legal system, said the POR card extension will not provide stability for all refugees.

“There is still a huge worry amongst families of being split because of these issues of documentation.”

Thyagi Ruwanpathirana, regional researcher for South Asia at Amnesty International, said the human rights group had “documented extensive delays and barriers refugees face in obtaining POR cards.”

The status of 80,000 Afghan Citizen Card holders, another form of registration for Afghan refugees in Pakistan, was also uncertain, Ruwanpathirana added.

“We urge the government of Pakistan to formally suspend its ‘Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan,’ stop all deportations, and develop a national legal framework to regulate access to refugee status in line with international refugee law,” she said.

This story has been updated with additional information.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

A case of a rhino with a bullet hole through its head, a poisoned giraffe and a maimed lion are all crime scenes you might find you might find at the Wildlife Forensics Academy (WFA), an hour’s drive north of Cape Town, South Africa.

On a mission to tackle poaching, the WFA recreates wildlife crimes in a warehouse and students and rangers dressed in hazmat suits are taught how to handle the evidence.

Across the world, wildlife crimes – including animal trafficking and poaching – are on the rise and are a major threat to the planet’s biodiversity. In Africa, rhinos are a prime target, with around 10,000 lost to poaching in the last decade, the majority in South Africa. Almost 500 rhinos were poached in the country in 2023, with more than 300 from within KwaZulu-Natal province, home to Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park. Yet the province only recorded 49 related arrests and seized just 13 firearms.

By providing forensics training, Greg Simpson, co-founder of the WFA, hopes to increase the rate of successful convictions. Often, he says, wildlife crimes happen in remote areas without witnesses and first responders can accidentally disrupt the scene and contaminate evidence. As a result, the culprit isn’t caught or punished.

“It’s really important to give people skills so that they can collect evidence … that can be used in an investigation and hopefully down the line will end up in a prosecution,” he says.

Crime scene simulation

The facility tries to make the training experience as realistic as possible. It uses life-size animals preserved by taxidermy, and some are marked with bloody wounds made with red paint. Besides the corrugated iron walls and roof, the warehouse looks like a typical dry African landscape, with sandy terrain and a scattering of plants. There is a poachers’ house and truck, ready to be searched and swabbed for fingerprints, and footprints lie on the ground, ready to be measured and identified.

Once the crime scene has been investigated, the students are taught how to chemically analyze the evidence at an on-site laboratory. The lessons culminate in a replica courtroom where they practice presenting the evidence at trial and undergo cross-examination.

“The purpose of cross-examination is to test the credibility, the trustworthiness of evidence. And unless you can survive it, the court might not accept your evidence,” says Phil Snijman, director of education at the WFA and former state advocate and prosecutor.

Fingerprints, DNA samples, ballistics (when a weapon is matched to a cartridge), shoe tracks can all be discounted by the court if they have not been correctly sealed, photographed or documented, he explains. And while he does not expect the course to make students and rangers forensic experts, he believes that it will help them to preserve the evidence correctly if they are ever the first responders to a crime scene.

Boosting convictions

Launched in 2022, the WFA attracts university students, such as those studying veterinary or biomedical sciences, and wildlife rangers from all over the world to its one to four-week courses. This year, it expects to train around 200 people. One of them is Leita Mkhabela, a ranger from the all-female Black Mamba anti-poaching unit that operates in Greater Kruger, a collection of private game reserves in northeast South Africa, who attended a course in April.

“This is something we come across every day, we have a high rate of rhino poaching,” she says. “We have so many poachers that have walked free in court because rangers didn’t collect enough evidence. It’s really important for rangers to get this knowledge.”

Mkhabela plans to take back all that she has learned to her colleagues so that they can implement the techniques in the bush. She believes that increasing the rate of convictions will act as a deterrent for poachers.

There are signs that the training is leading to convictions. According to the WFA, a ranger reported that since doing the course, he was able to collect traces of poison at a crime scene involving wild dogs, and police were confident they would be able to arrest and convict the poachers as a result.

Other forensic laboratories have been set up across the continent, in countries such as Malawi and Botswana. One initiative, led by the International Fund for Animal Welfare (IFAW), ran four workshops during 2023 and early 2024, training 80 wildlife rangers, investigators, and intelligence officers from the Kenya Wildlife Service on collecting and presenting evidence in court. In the first quarter of this year, IFAW reported 32 wildlife crime cases being presented in court and 24 people accused of wildlife crimes awaiting prosecution. Previously, these cases would have been dropped due to a lack of sufficient evidence, it says.

Kevin Pretorius, director of the Green Law Foundation and a practicing attorney at the High Court of South Africa, who specializes in criminal and environmental law, and is not involved with WFA, says that one of the main hurdles in convicting wildlife crimes is the “admissibility of evidence,” especially since the charge must be proven “beyond reasonable doubt.”

“The training of a cohort of people that understand the value of evidence, and that a crime scene tells a story, and that story can assist the investigator in linking the perpetrator to a crime, is always valuable,” he says.

For the WFA, assisting law enforcement is its central mission, but it also hopes to raise awareness of the threats presented by the illegal wildlife trade and why it should be treated as a priority. “It’s a threat to biodiversity, it’s a threat to human health,” says Simpson. “If we can improve knowledge around this, that would be really valuable.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com