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Post-pandemic consumer splurging is rapidly coming to a halt, according to two widely followed U.S. companies — more evidence that the U.S. economy is likely in for a period of slower economic growth.

Pepsi and Delta Air Lines both offered subdued financial outlooks as they reported quarterly earnings Thursday, and both cited the same reason: Customers are now becoming more value conscious, after years of struggling with elevated costs.

‘The impacts of persistent inflationary pressures and higher borrowing costs over the last few years have resulted in tighter household financial conditions,’ Pepsi said Thursday in a statement.

As a result, the company said, consumers have become more price sensitive across its entire range of products.

Delta CEO Ed Bastian echoed the sentiment in explaining his company’s lower outlook for the rest of the year.

“What you see happening is the impact in the domestic marketplace to the lower fare discounting that’s been going on this quarter,” he told CNBC airline reporter Leslie Josephs.

In other words, Delta customers have started to push back on paying top-dollar to travel in the skies.

The stock price of both companies fell in early Thursday trading. A third consumer-focused company, Slim Jim-parent Conagra Brands, also reported lower earnings Thursday, and CEO Sean Connolly likewise said customers are becoming more cost conscious as they ‘adapt and establish new reference prices.”

The seemingly economy-wide bargain-hunting was further reflected Thursday in the latest official inflation data, which showed the monthly Consumer Price Index had meaningfully declined for the first time since the pandemic.

While the change in the 12-month index remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, at 3%, it cooled more than analysts’ expectations.

Thursday’s company announcements kick off several weeks of other big consumer companies giving business updates.

Even as consumers start budgeting more, economic forecasters say there is still no sign of a recession. While the labor market has begun to weaken, wage growth remains healthy — even surpassing the rate of inflation, but the pay increases are not excessive.

‘The labor market is normalizing, it isn’t seeing the type of weakness that could spark recessionary worries,’ Josh Jamner, Investment Strategy Analyst at ClearBridge Investments financial group, wrote in a note to clients. He added that unemployment claims data show that ‘a layoff cycle that could lead to a recession is not currently building.”

Economists say the goal is ‘disinflation,’ a situation where the economy downshifts without slipping into recession. It would mean slower price growth without a full-blown recession.

Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY (formerly Ernst & Young), sees that scenario currently playing out.

‘Softer consumer spending growth due to increased pricing sensitivity, reduced markups, moderating wage growth, and declining rent inflation will continue to provide a healthy disinflationary impulse,” Daco wrote in a note to clients Thursday.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The National Football League is considering allowing minority private equity ownership for its 32 teams of up to 10%, Commissioner Roger Goodell said in an exclusive CNBC interview Thursday.

“As sports evolve, we want to make sure our policies reflect that,” Goodell said in an interview with CNBC’s Julia Boorstin at Allen & Co.’s annual Sun Valley Conference. “We’ve had a tremendous amount of interest [from private equity firms], and we believe this could make sense for us in a limited fashion, probably no more than 10% of a team. That would be something we think could complement our ownership and support our ownership policies.”

The NFL hopes to set its new ownership policies by the end of the year, Goodell said. The 10% cap would be a starting point, and the league is open to raising it in time, he said.

While other major U.S. sports leagues, including the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League and Major League Soccer all allow private equity ownership of up to 30%, the NFL has resisted taking money from institutional funds, such as private equity, preferring limited partners to be individuals or families.

But franchise valuations have steadily risen as the NFL has signed lucrative media deals, meaning fewer people can afford team ownership. In 2023, Josh Harris, co-founder of private equity firm Apollo Global Management, headed a group that paid $6.05 billion for the Washington Commanders — the most money ever spent on a U.S. professional sports franchise.

“Unless you’re one of the wealthiest 50 people [in the world], writing a $5 billion equity check is pretty hard for anyone,” Harris told CNBC “Squawk Box” co-anchor Andrew Ross Sorkin at the CNBC CEO Council Summit in Washington, D.C., last month.

Harris tapped 20 people to help raise money for his bid, including former NBA superstar Magic Johnson; former Google CEO Eric Schmidt; and David Blitzer, the Blackstone Group senior executive who previously partnered with Harris to buy the NBA’s Philadelphia 76ers and the NHL’s New Jersey Devils.

“Raising that amount of capital was unique; it had never been done before,” Harris said. “I think it may be leading to some rethink into the consideration of letting private equity, as an example, or institutional investors into the NFL.”

The National Women’s Soccer League allows private equity firms to take majority control of franchise teams, unlike the other U.S. professional sports leagues. Private equity incentives around reaching investment targets and exit thresholds could alter the motivations for ownership in ways that make the bigger sports leagues uncomfortable.

Minority stakes typically come with little or no decision-making power on the team. That is likely comforting to the NFL if it allows private equity investors, but it has also limited the number of individuals interested in taking smaller stakes in teams.

“These people are really rich and successful. They’re used to being the center of the universe. And now you go, I need a quarter of a billion dollars. Fantastic, what do I get? Nothing,” Ted Leonsis, the owner of the Washington Capitals, Wizards and Mystics, told ESPN in May. “Do you have any control? Any role? No, you’re passive investors. You’ll get your name on a website somewhere or something and you get to tell people I own a piece of an NFL team.”

Private equity firms, tasked with finding investment vehicles to make returns on their assets under management, may be better suited to minority ownership.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Editor’s note: This is part of NBC News’ Checkbook Chronicles, a series of profiles highlighting the financial realities of everyday Americans.

Doug Sharp isn’t a rich man — but he has played one in Hollywood.

Sharp, 59, lives in L.A. and until recently got the bulk of his income by driving for Uber and Lyft, while moonlighting as a paid extra.

It’s the chance to earn the spotlight and others who share his passion for acting that keeps him going after years of failing to find any other kind of full-time work.


Primary source of income: Sharp says he struggles to make ends meet, having survived the past few years off a generous pandemic unemployment reimbursement.

He has begun taking delivery orders on UberEats, but said the pay on that platform barely makes it worth it.

What keeps Sharp going is acting — a notoriously fickle endeavor but one he says has upside potential. He recently obtained a small speaking part in an upcoming production featuring at least two Hollywood A-listers — and saw his daily pay rate go from about $200 to nearly $1,200.

‘The money for background is good, and there’s always the possibility of being upgraded to principal,’ he said. ‘That has happened to me — I have not found a replacement for it.’

Still, it’s not consistent enough for him to obtain full Screen Actors Guild benefits, so his health insurance is through Medicaid.

Living situation: Sharp lives alone, and said his housing situation is unstable. It includes periodically renting from a friend as well as an unauthorized arrangement he wasn’t comfortable discussing on the record.

Economic outlook: After nearly a decade of making steady pay driving for Uber and Lyft, Sharp has effectively quit both platforms for now, in part because, he said, their base pay and regular rates are no longer enough make it worth it to utilize the platforms, especially for what’s needed to live in Los Angeles.

Acting remains enjoyable — Sharp said he is not a celebrity hound and simply enjoys being around other people.

‘The older you get, the less parts there are,’ he said. ‘However the pool of older guys is smaller — and shockingly I always play the rich white guy, because that’s what I look like. But I didn’t I know look like rich white guy until started playing one.’

Yet the gigs have been hardly steady enough to make a career out of.

‘What I can tell you is I barely work,’ Sharp said. ‘In May I worked two days, in April I worked four days, in March I worked two days, in February, I worked two days, in January, I worked one day.’

Budget pain points: Sharp struggles with buying basic necessities, to the point that he found himself recently trying to return goods around his residence back to Home Depot and Walmart for cash or credit.

He owns a car, a Fiat 500, but is trying to obtain a new one through a rental company so that he can get back to driving for Uber and Lyft — even at the reduced rates. However, he’s not sure his credit score will be good enough for him to obtain the new vehicle.

Outlook: Sharp said he basically started his life over in his 40s, when he obtained a business degree from the University of Massachusetts-Amherst. But he graduated in 2013, when the economy was still emerging from the global financial crisis, and couldn’t land a job.

Uber, and later Lyft, provided a lifeline, and he enjoyed the work. But over the years, their rates got lower and lower.

Still, returning to those platforms remains his key financial objective.

In the meantime, Sharp struggles with depression and anxiety.

‘The one thing people hate are educated white men, who look rich but who are poor,’ Sharp said. ‘They think ‘Oh, he must be lazy, or on drugs what is his problem? I get this — I’ve watched my friend group move away.’

‘I am ashamed about where I am in my life as it relates to my finances and not knowing how to fix it,” he continued.

Finding a full-time job — even at a fast-food restaurant, and even in a labor market that the Federal Reserve says remains relatively healthy — has been a lot more difficult than one might imagine.

‘I do qualify for food stamps, I do qualify for [Medicaid],’ he said. ‘I’m not embarrassed about that, but when I’m willing to work — and bust my ass, why is it that I can’t get a living wage?’

Ironically, fast-food jobs are now quite difficult to obtain, Sharp said, not least because their hourly wages are now higher than in many other industries thanks to California’s new $20 minimum wage for workers in the sector.

‘It’s embarrassing because it seems like there’s a piece of the puzzle that I’m not telling,’ Sharp said. ‘I’m doing everything I can.’

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The U.S. Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates before year’s end. That could make future trips abroad more expensive for the nation’s travelers.

That’s due to how interest-rate policy affects the strength of the U.S. dollar.

Here’s the basic idea: An environment of rising U.S. interest rates relative to those in other nations is generally “dollar positive,” said Jonathan Petersen, senior markets economist and foreign exchange specialist at Capital Economics.

In other words, rising rates underpin a stronger U.S. dollar versus foreign currencies. Americans can buy more stuff with their money overseas.

The opposite dynamic — falling interest rates — tends to be “dollar negative,” Petersen said. A weaker dollar means Americans can buy less abroad.

Fed officials in June signaled they expect to cut rates once in 2024 and four additional times in 2025.

“Our expectation for now is the dollar will come under more pressure next year,” Petersen said.

However, that’s not necessarily a foregone conclusion. Some financial experts think the dollar’s strength may have staying power.

“There have been quite a few headlines calling for the U.S. dollar’s demise,” Richard Madigan, chief investment officer at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, wrote in a recent note. “I continue to believe the dollar remains the one-eyed man in the land of the blind.”

The Fed started raising interest rates aggressively in March 2022 to tame high pandemic-era inflation. By July 2023, the central bank had raised rates to their highest level in 23 years.

The dollar’s strength surged against that backdrop.

The Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index is higher than at any pre-pandemic point dating to at least 2006, when the central bank started tracking such data. The index gauges the dollar’s appreciation relative to currencies of the nation’s main trading partners such as the euro, the Canadian dollar and the Japanese yen.

For example, in July 2022, the U.S. dollar reached parity with the euro for the first time in 20 years, meaning they had a 1:1 exchange rate. (The euro has since rebounded a bit.)

In early July, the U.S. dollar hit its strongest level against the yen in 38 years.

A strong U.S. dollar gives “a discount on everything you’re purchasing while you’re abroad,” Petersen said.

“In a sense, it’s never been cheaper to go to Japan,” he added.

A record number of Americans visited Japan in April, according to the Asian nation’s tourism board. Benjamin Atwater, a communications specialist at InsideAsia Tours, a travel agency, attributes that partly to the financial incentive bestowed by a strong dollar.

In fact, he personally recently extended a work trip to Japan by a week and a half — instead of opting to travel elsewhere in Asia — largely because of the favorable exchange rate.

Everything from meals, hotels, souvenirs and the rental car were a “great value,” said Atwater, who lives in Denver and has long wanted to travel to Japan.

“It was always portrayed as one of the most expensive places you can go, [but] I was getting some of best steaks I’ve ever had for like $12,” he said.

In reality, the dynamics driving dollar fluctuations are more complex than whether the Fed raises or lowers interest rates.

The differential in U.S. rates versus other nations is what’s significant, economists said. Fed policy doesn’t exist in a vacuum: Other central banks are also simultaneously making interest-rate choices.

The European Central Bank cut interest rates in June, for example. Meanwhile, the Fed has kept rates higher for longer than many forecasters anticipated — meaning the rate differential between the U.S. and Europe has widened, helping support the dollar.

“The Fed’s on hold, other central banks are getting ready to ease and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) seems stuck in a moment,” J.P. Morgan’s Madigan wrote.

“If Japan wants the yen to stabilize, policy rates need to move higher,” he added. “That doesn’t appear to be happening anytime soon. With the ECB expected to cut ahead of the Fed, I expect current euro weakness to also prevail.”

This is happening against the backdrop of a relatively strong U.S. economy, which also generally supports a strong dollar, Petersen said. At a high level, a strong economy means there will generally be higher economic growth and/or inflation, which means a greater likelihood the Fed will keep interest rates relatively high, he said.

A strong economy also typically incentivizes foreigners to park more money in the U.S., he said.

For example, investors generally get a better return on cash when interest rates are high. If an investor in Europe or Asia were getting perhaps 1% or 2% on bank account holdings while such holdings in the U.S. were yielding 5%, that investor might shift some money to the U.S., Petersen said.

Or, an investor might want more to hold more of their portfolio in U.S. rather than European stocks if the economic growth outlook wasn’t good in Europe, he said.

In such cases, foreigners buy dollar-denominated financial assets. They’d sell their local currency and buy the dollar, a process that ultimately bids up the dollar’s strength, Petersen said.

Exchange rates “all come down to capital flows,” he said.

While these dynamics also hold true in emerging markets, currency fluctuations can be more volatile than in developed nations due to factors like political shocks and risks to commodity prices like those of oil, he added.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

President Biden is set to hold a campaign rally in Michigan on Friday following a news conference that received mixed reviews from other Democrats, in which Biden showed command of complex foreign policy issues but stumbled through some answers and mixed up names.

The Thursday night news conference did not immediately halt the stream of Democrats who have been calling on Biden to end his candidacy after a rocky debate performance two weeks ago. Shortly after the news conference ended, Reps. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), Scott Peters (D-Calif.) and Eric Sorensen (D-Ill.) added their names to those who have asked Biden to step aside.

But other Democrats who were previously critical of Biden commended his clear grasp of foreign policy and global economics. The array of responses suggests that the next 24 to 48 hours may be critical to determining Biden’s political future, adding to the drama surrounding the president’s performance in Michigan on Friday.

Hours before the news conference, four more Democratic House lawmakers had already called on him to step aside, voicing fears that he would have difficulty defeating presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump because of voters’ concerns about his age. Biden is 81 and Trump is 78, but polls suggest voters are significantly more worried about Biden’s capacity than Trump’s.

Many Democrats predicted privately that defections could increase markedly on Friday. Some in the party were waiting for the end of the NATO summit in Washington and others were holding their fire until the news conference.

Biden began the question-and-answer session by touting his accomplishments at NATO and his record as president, providing an implicit defense of his continued candidacy. But early on, he mistakenly referred to Vice President Harris as “Vice President Trump,” a verbal slip-up that elicited audible gasps in the room and frustration from already nervous Democrats.

But Biden also gave lengthy, complex answers to a range of foreign policy questions and argued forcefully that he is the most qualified person to defeat Trump and govern the country. Still, given the view of many Democrats that Trump presents an existential threat, they may be unwilling to take that risk.

Democrats have feverishly debated whether Biden should remain their presidential nominee since a debate performance on June 27 — when he stumbled over words and sometimes struggled to complete sentences — brought to the fore long-simmering concerns about his physical and mental fitness. Biden so far has been unmoved by the growing calls from within his party for him to exit the race.

The president’s visit to Michigan could also highlight another key political vulnerability, one that was bedeviling his campaign well before the June debate: Arab Americans, Muslims and liberals deeply angered by his response to Israel’s war in Gaza who have said they will withhold their votes because of his failure to call for a permanent cease-fire and cut off U.S. military aid to Israel.

More than 38,000 Palestinians have died in the enclave in the past nine months. Israel launched a punishing military assault in Gaza after Hamas militants crossed the border into Israel last Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people and taking some 250 hostage.

Michigan is home to the country’s largest Arab American population, with about 300,000 people who claim ancestry from the Middle East or North Africa. Michigan’s Arab and Muslim community overwhelmingly supported Biden in 2020, when he won the state by 154,000 votes.

Abdullah Hammoud, the mayor of Dearborn — where Arab Americans make up the majority of the population — said he has not spoken to White House officials for several months about his constituents’ concerns over the war in Gaza. Even as Gaza has receded from the headlines in recent weeks, Hammoud said, the situation on the ground has continued to worsen and residents have not lost focus on the issue.

“Earlier this year, the president sent his senior White House officials to listen to the constituency he sought support from four years ago, and there have been no meaningful steps since. Things have only gone backwards,” Hammoud said, referring to a Feb. 8 meeting in which senior national security officials visited Dearborn and met with the mayor and other officials.

“We’re looking for a president with the backbone to call for a cease-fire,” Hammoud added. “This is not the president that was promised to us four years ago.”

Most public polls show Biden trailing Trump in Michigan, which is key to the president’s narrowing path to victory — he has few, if any, paths without it.

The Biden campaign argued in a memo obtained by The Washington Post on Thursday that it can win by focusing on the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

This post appeared first on The Washington Post

Hollywood executives, performers and thousands of other Californians filed into a Los Angeles theater last month, expecting a star-studded fundraiser for President Biden, backed by actors George Clooney and Julia Roberts, that would inject millions of dollars into Biden’s static campaign and launch him on a path to beat Donald Trump in November.

Instead, many attendees — led by Clooney — now say they watched a dud and a preview screening of what the nation saw two weeks later in Biden’s prime-time debate against Trump.

“I said to my wife, either he’ll do great at the debate, and we’ll realize he was just tired tonight, or he’ll perform like this and then the whole country will be talking about it,” said Jon Favreau, an Obama White House speechwriter who attended the event.

Reflecting on the June 15 event at L.A.’s Peacock Theater, some donors said this week that they noticed Biden seemed slow. He appeared frail. As he greeted donors lined up for photos, he trailed off or spoke too quietly in small-talk conversation to be heard.

The lingering doubts among Biden’s closest supporters that evening help explain why support for him has collapsed so quickly in the days after the June 27 presidential debate: the debate confirmed many voters’ long-held suspicions that the elderly president was not up to the task of campaigning. The reactions among attendees of the event also raise questions about why Biden’s allies did not speak up sooner about their concerns, allowing his campaign to insist for months that Biden was vigorous and sharp behind-the-scenes, when many now say that was not their own experience.

Measured by dollars, the evening was a success: it brought in more than $30 million for Biden’s campaign, setting a record for a single political fundraiser. The president, who had just flown in from Italy that morning, first met with top donors and allies in a two-hour-plus series of private receptions and photos before taking the stage with former president Barack Obama and talk show host Jimmy Kimmel in the 36-minute main event.

But even with Kimmel posing softball questions, and Obama frequently interjecting to provide support, Biden struggled to explain key parts of his campaign platform, with attendees saying that the president frequently stumbled over his remarks, trailed off or was simply confusing.

Some attendees said it was even at worse at the smaller receptions before Biden took the stage. Greeting hundreds of supporters for grip-and-grin photos, the president stumbled over small talk and seemed frail, according to six attendees. For high-level donors who were meeting the 81-year-old Biden for the first time, several said they found his decline shocking.

“It felt like he was still the smart, witty guy we’ve all followed for many years, but the volume and speed are turned way down — to an alarming level,” said one longtime Democratic supporter who, like several others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss her personal experience meeting the president after she and her husband donated $100,000.

Making small talk with the current and former presidents while preparing for a photo, the donor said that she and Obama shared a brief joke that Biden initially seemed to miss. The current president only attempted a retort “in a barely audible voice” after the photo was over and others had moved on, she said.

Biden campaign staff and allies have characterized the criticism as unfair and retroactive second-guessing, pointing to the president’s travel and his stamina through the roughly three-hour long event. They note, too, that the Kimmel portion of the evening was open to the media.

“Several reporters were present for the President’s interview with Jimmy Kimmel at the L.A. fundraiser,” Lauren Hitt, a campaign spokesperson, said in a statement. “None of them reported out anything like this at the time.”

The donor said she and her husband were asked by friends after the event about Biden’s condition and “struggled to answer them honestly,” fearful of eroding Biden’s support.

“We were worried that if we told the truth — that President Biden was stiff, slow and dare we say it, fragile — that we risked losing their support for the president,” said the donor. “It was painful to be deceptive. Now, we realize we were not alone in withholding what we experienced.”

Another donor said he focused on what he considered the evening’s high points, such as Biden’s rousing slam on the Supreme Court’s recent rulings.

“You want to believe in the possible,” he said.

The fundraiser appears to have been a breaking point for Clooney. In an op-ed in the New York Times on Wednesday, he wrote that he loved and supported Biden — but that he believed Biden should drop out of the race, in part because of what he had observed at the event.

“It’s devastating to say it, but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fund-raiser was not the Joe ‘big F-ing deal’ Biden of 2010. He wasn’t even the Joe Biden of 2020,” Clooney wrote. “He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate.”

A spokesperson for Clooney declined to elaborate on the actor’s interactions with Biden at the fundraiser.

Others who attended said they felt Biden had been engaging and energetic, particularly given the circumstances.

“You’d be tired too after two overseas trips to Europe in a matter of days, plus just getting off an 11-hour flight with a nine-hour time zone change, standing and shaking 200 hands for a couple of hours, and then heading into a giant event to perform,” said Kimberly Marteau Emerson, an attorney who Biden appointed to the United States Holocaust Memorial Council last year. “Given all that, I think he did a fantastic job.”

Hunting Hollywood cash

Air Force One touched down at Los Angeles International Airport around 5 a.m. on June 15, with the president and his team fresh from meetings with world leaders and the Pope in Fasano, Italy, and a brief layover outside of Washington, D.C.

The red-eye flight had required crossing 10 time zones, but the Saturday night fundraiser promised to be lucrative and exciting, representing a glamorous break from Biden’s political battles. VIP donors and political staff could mingle with Clooney — who has helped organize Democratic fundraisers for years, like a $15 million event for Obama at Clooney’s home in 2012 — and other Hollywood stars.

Biden would also share the stage with Kimmel, one of his staunchest — and wittiest — supporters in Hollywood. The TV host is a reliable Democratic donor who has also given to Senate candidates such as Missouri attorney Lucas Kunce and Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego, according to Federal Election Commission data.

While L.A. is a deep-pocketed and reliably liberal enclave Biden won Los Angeles County by a nearly three-to-one margin over Trump four years ago — the president’s campaign had been late to fully tap Hollywood’s checkbooks given entertainment industry strikes last year.

Now the campaign was working to make up for lost time. The Los Angeles Times reported that access to the most exclusive VIP perks, including the photo line, reception and after-party, cost $500,000. The cheapest tickets to the public portion of the event required a $250 donation to the campaign.

The campaign was also looking for a boost of energy. As Biden arrived in California, polls showed the presidential race closely tied or with Trump holding a slight edge, and that many Americans were deeply dissatisfied with both major candidates.

Giving Biden time to recover from his international travel, the president had no scheduled events until around 5:15 p.m., when his motorcade arrived at the Peacock Theater, driving past a smattering of demonstrators protesting about the Israel-Gaza conflict.

Attendees and campaign staff described several reception areas backstage at the theater, including one area filled with high-profile actors, and another where donors mingled with Democratic elected officials including California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass. Guests were eventually invited to queue up for a photo opportunity with Biden and Obama.

Emerson — whose husband served as ambassador to Germany under Obama — said she had a pleasant experience meeting Biden and Obama in the photo line.

“I mentioned how much we enjoyed hosting Jill at our home a few weeks earlier. He immediately lit up and said, ‘She told me about it!’ and squeezed my hands,” she wrote in a text message.

But other Hollywood donors and attendees said that they were disappointed by their glimpses of Biden, particularly when they compared the president to the younger and more energetic Obama standing next to him.

“He just seemed so worn out,” said one donor who hadn’t seen Biden in person in several years.

Several members of Congress, who interact more often with Biden than the Hollywood crowd, were in attendance and said they found the president’s performance underwhelming, but little different from what they’re accustomed to in Washington.

“I’ve been with him. I know what to expect,” said one lawmaker, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe the fundraiser and other private experiences. “It’s hard to think he’s our best chance to beat Trump.”

Meanwhile, onstage, Barbra Streisand, Kathryn Hahn, Jason Bateman and other performers entertained the packed crowd.

“When democracy is at stake, Jack Black answers the call,” the actor said, endorsing Biden in American-flag overalls and a “Dark Brandon” t-shirt.

Around 7:45 p.m., Biden took the stage alongside Obama. The two men bantered with Kimmel about how traffic-congested Los Angeles roads can miraculously open once you’re president.

The conversation then turned more serious, as Kimmel rattled off Biden’s accomplishments as president — such as lowering prescription drug costs for seniors and decriminalizing cannabis — and contrasted him with “Orange Julius Caesar,” one of several mocking references to Trump.

Kimmel also referenced the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and end the constitutional right to abortion. The Biden campaign later released a clip of one exchange, showing Biden forcefully arguing the Supreme Court “has never been as out of kilter as it is today,” citing an opinion written by Justice Clarence Thomas that suggested the court should reconsider other decisions that established rights to contraception, as well as same-sex relations and marriage.

“Not on my watch. Not on my watch,” Biden said to applause.

But Biden also stumbled over some questions, even as Kimmel and Obama interjected with quips and support. Asked why some Republicans continue to oppose the Affordable Care Act, the president offered a meandering reply.

“I was able — and I was able to expand it to — and save another 8,000 buck — 800 bucks a year for them,” Biden said, according to an official White House transcript. “But here’s the deal. The fact is that these guys don’t seem to care. They somehow — and, by the way, it’s not — it’s saving the country money. It’s not wasting money. All the cost — it would — if — this — if it — what — what’s — it’s about, I guess, 40 million people would be affected.”

“Millions of people would be affected,” Obama quickly followed up. “And the reason that the Republicans say they’re opposed to it is because we did it.”

Monica Zierhut, a 55-year-old music supervisor who spent $250 on her seat, said she was impressed by Biden, particularly when accounting for his age and travel.

“I felt he was very articulate when he was talking,” Zierhut said. “He wasn’t, you know, a meandering old man.”

But for Favreau, who was sitting close to the stage, the evening was an opportunity lost. Rather than convey a strong and inspiring reelection message, Biden’s performance “was slow, halting, and hard to follow,” Favreau said.

Other attendees said they too left the theater with grave concerns but tried to shove them aside. Bedford McIntosh, a 69-year-old retired education fundraiser who spent $1,000 on seats for himself and his wife, said he left the fundraiser worried about the president’s ability to galvanize voters — particularly given Biden’s contrast with Obama.

“You juxtapose those two, and it’s night and day,” said McIntosh. “I didn’t walk out of there thinking, ‘oh, we got the right guy.’”

The fallout

Twelve days later, Biden’s poor performance in the debate against Trump unlocked frustrations across Hollywood, with some longtime Democratic donors venting that they’d been privately reassured that Biden remained sharp even as millions of television viewers discovered the opposite.

Biden “gave us a bunch of malarkey, and I’m really pissed,” said Ari Emanuel, CEO of entertainment conglomerate WME, speaking at the Aspen Ideas Festival the day after the debate. Emanuel — whose brother, Rahm, was picked by Biden to be ambassador to Japan — suggested that donors should stop giving to the president’s campaign. The Biden campaign or White House hasn’t contacted him since his criticism, Emanuel said in an interview Wednesday.

“Let’s go with the bullpen please. Let’s go with relief,” Damon Lindelof, the producer and showrunner behind TV shows “Lost,” “The Leftovers,” and “Watchmen,” wrote in a column for Deadline last week, calling for a “DEMbargo” on donations until Biden drops out.

Clooney’s column in the New York Times this week went further, calling on Democrats in Congress to speak out and help push for a new nominee.

“The dam has broken. We can put our heads in the sand and pray for a miracle in November, or we can speak the truth,” Clooney wrote.

Other Biden supporters at the fundraiser have stayed with the president. Hahn, who performed at the event, joked about calls for Biden to drop out of the race when she guest-hosted Kimmel’s show on Monday.

“Here’s the thing: I would vote for a skeleton over Donald Trump,” she said.

“In fact,” she said, “I may literally be voting for a skeleton.”

Tyler Pager, Aaron Schaffer, Shawn Boburg and Michael Kranish contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on The Washington Post

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has privately apologized to a woman who accused him of sexual assault, saying he does not remember the alleged incident and that any harm he caused was “inadvertent.”

In a story published last week in Vanity Fair, the woman, Eliza Cooney, described inappropriate behavior and sexual advances from Kennedy when she worked as his family’s weekend nanny in the late 1990s, including an incident in which Kennedy approached her from behind and allegedly groped her in a pantry. At the time, Cooney was 23. Kennedy was 45 and married, with five children.

“I have no memory of this incident but I apologize sincerely for anything I ever did that made you feel uncomfortable or anything I did or said that offended you or hurt your feelings,” Kennedy wrote in a text message to Cooney sent at 12:33 a.m. on July 4, two days after her accusations became public. “I never intended you any harm. If I hurt you, it was inadvertent. I feel badly for doing so.”

He added, “If you feel comfortable, Id [sic] like to tell you this by phone, and preferably, face to face. I recognize that this might not be possible. I have no agenda for sending this text other than making the most sincere and ernest [sic] amends.”

Reached by phone on Thursday, Kennedy declined to comment on Cooney’s allegations or to elaborate on his message to her.

“The text message speaks for itself,” he said.

The message, which Cooney provided to The Washington Post and which The Post verified was sent from Kennedy’s cellphone number, has not previously been reported. It represents the candidate’s most detailed reaction to Cooney’s accusations.

In an interview with The Post, Cooney, now 48, voiced incredulity that Kennedy would claim not to remember the incident and said she believed his efforts to contact her were meant as damage control rather than a genuine expression of remorse.

“It was disingenuous and arrogant,” Cooney said of his message. “I’m not sure how somebody has a true apology for something that they don’t admit to recalling. I did not get a sense of remorse.”

She said she was also disturbed by Kennedy’s suggestion that they meet in person.

“Meet ‘face to face?’ What woman wants to do that?” Cooney said.

Kennedy, the son of former attorney general Robert F. Kennedy and nephew of former president John F. Kennedy, is poised to play an influential role in this year’s volatile presidential election. An independent candidate known for his conspiracist worldview and anti-vaccine activism, he has drawn a relatively small but passionate following among Americans who say they’re disenchanted with their major-party ballot alternatives. About 9 percent of registered voters nationally support his candidacy, polls show.

Despite his famous name, other prominent members of his family have disavowed his campaign, saying they fear he could divert crucial votes from President Biden in a close election.

After Cooney’s story appeared in Vanity Fair, Kennedy twice called her cellphone on July 3 and sent her a text the same day asking that she call him. Shortly after midnight he sent a second text message with his apology, according to screenshots from her phone.

Cooney — who has not had contact with Kennedy for years — said she was unsure how he obtained her number. She said she has not responded to his calls and messages.

Kennedy deflected last week when asked about the incident.

“I am not a church boy,” he said on the Breaking Points podcast. “I had a very, very rambunctious youth. I said in my [campaign] announcement speech … I have so many skeletons in my closet that if they could all vote I could run for king of the world.” Pressed on whether he denied Cooney’s allegations, Kennedy said, “I’m not going to comment on it.”

Cooney said she went to work with Kennedy in the fall of 1998 after babysitting over the summer for some of his nieces and nephews on Cape Cod. A recent graduate of Pomona College, she was interested in a career in environmental law. Kennedy was then the top attorney at Riverkeeper, one of New York’s premier environmental organizations.

Cooney said she worked weekdays as an intern at an environmental litigation clinic Kennedy led at Pace Law School, and over the weekends would look after his kids. She lived in the expansive home in Mount Kisco, N.Y., that Kennedy shared with his second wife, Mary Richardson Kennedy, who more than a decade later would die by suicide amid bitter divorce proceedings with her husband.

Weeks after she started, Cooney said, she was sitting in the kitchen with Kennedy and a Riverkeeper volunteer when Kennedy began running his hand up and down her leg beneath the table. She said she batted his hand away but that he persisted throughout the conversation.

They never spoke about it afterward, but Cooney wrote about the experience at the time in her journal, which she showed to The Post.

“It seemed like he thought I was somebody else or wasn’t paying attention,” she wrote. “Like he would come to every once in a while and snap out of it or I would move away. It was like he was on something or really tired or was missing Mary or testing me.”

Not long after that, she said, Kennedy showed up shirtless in her room one day with a large bottle of Kiehl’s, an expensive body lotion, and asked her to rub it into his back — explaining, she said, that his wife believed it to be the best brand of moisturizer. Cooney said the request made her uncomfortable but that she obliged, and he left afterward.

On a third occasion, she said, she was in the kitchen pantry after yoga class, looking for food to make lunch, when Kennedy silently approached her from behind and placed his hands on her hips. She said he then ran his hands up her body and along the sides of her breasts.

“I remember being like, ‘Oh my God, what is even happening right now?’” Cooney told The Post. “It’s very much like being quiet because you’re hiding from somebody under the bed or something, you know? That’s how I felt.”

At that moment, she said, a man working on renovations in the house came into the kitchen and made his presence known to Kennedy, saying something along the lines of, “Don’t do anything I wouldn’t do” or, “Don’t do anything you wouldn’t want your wife to know about.”

Cooney never spoke of the incident afterward with Kennedy, although she continued living in the house for several months and worked at the Pace Law clinic for another few years, completing a project on the history of the Hudson River.

“I felt as though if I walked away, all the investment I put in would be for naught,” she said. “It was my first job. I didn’t want that to be a failure. And it was for Bobby Kennedy, who was at the time a prominent environmental lawyer, which was the work I wanted to go into.”

But Cooney did not ultimately pursue such a career, she said, in part because of her negative experiences with Kennedy.

Several years ago, amid the #MeToo movement’s onslaught of revelations, she shared her story for the first time with her mother, Holly Cooney, who told The Post it was “horrifying to hear about, especially with your own child.”

Last summer Cooney consulted Elizabeth Geddes, a former federal prosecutor now in private practice. Geddes said the unwanted touching of her breasts that Cooney described constituted sexual assault, but that the criminal statute of limitations had passed. Cooney was still eligible — for a limited time — to bring a civil complaint under New York state’s Adult Survivors Act, but decided not to do so, concerned about the costs and duration of a lawsuit, as well as the potential blowback for herself and her family.

Geddes said this week that she considered Kennedy’s efforts to reach out directly to Cooney highly unusual.

“This is something that perhaps might make an offender feel better about doing it,” Geddes said. “But it’s hard to imagine that an apology such as this could provide any closure or other solace to somebody who was sexually assaulted in the workplace.”

Alice Crites contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on The Washington Post

In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, available to watch below, Dave begins a three-part series on selecting top charts to follow every month. In this first episode, he shares how he and Grayson Roze select the charts to include in the Top 10 lists using the StockCharts Scan Engine and chart review techniques. How can you use StockCharts tools to identify the next top performers?

See Dave and Grayson Roze’s picks for July 2024 here.

This video originally premiered on July 9, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

Over the last few years, the “AI trade” has shifted from the hottest trend to a portfolio centerpiece. The rationale for the shift is obvious: it’s hard to imagine future technology without AI.

But while the AI trade revolves around the usual suspects—semiconductors and various big tech stocks—silver is a critical yet overlooked component supplying the entire AI industry.

Silver’s Role in the AI Industry

Silver isn’t the only metal in AI tech production; its role is critical. Without it, AI—and much of electronic tech—wouldn’t exist. Its applications in thermal conductivity, semiconductor fabrication, sensors, connectors, and photovoltaic cells make silver indispensable in AI tech production.

The Silver Institute says global silver demand is set to hit around 1.2 billion ounces this year, the second-highest level ever recorded. Even with more silver being produced in response to industrial demand, analysts still believe the market will be in deficit for the fourth year in a row.

Silver’s 5-Year Seasonality Chart

Take a look at silver’s ($SILVER) five-year seasonality performance using StockCharts’ Seasonality chart tool.

CHART 1. 5-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF SILVER. Note the volatile performance quarter by quarter.

First, why a five-year seasonality chart? The answer is that it gives more weight to silver’s industrial demand and the AI trade starting in the year before the COVID lockdown. Still, if the market has been in a supply deficit for four years while demand keeps rising, you might wonder if the current price is somehow ‘repressed,’ setting the stage for a big surge.

  • Over the last four years, silver has returned, on average, 8.5% this month (average returns are at the bottom of the bar).
  • August and September show the summer doldrums, with the latter’s figure looking quite dismal.
  • October through December, the best months, topped even that of March through May in terms of average returns and, to some extent, higher close rates (those are the numbers above the bar).

Silver’s Macro View Shows Major Breakout

Looking back at silver’s performance over the last 16 years, the white metal is breaking out of a wide (and very ugly) four-year trading range.

CHART 2. WEEKLY CHART OF SILVER. Silver just broke out of a four-year (and very volatile) trading range.

Looking at the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, you can see how the rallies correspond to the increased buying pressure. The current reading may not be as dramatic as the levels seen in 2010 and 2011, but this is where you make an informed guess as to whether such a move is about to start.

Silver’s price broke above the four-year resistance level at $30. However, it faces technical headwinds at approximately $36, $44, and right below $50 (the highest level reached was $49.45 in 1980 and $48.70 in 2011).

Are Big Players Scooping Up What Retail Investors Are Ditching?

Before looking at the daily chart from a tactical perspective for some potential entry points, let’s first compare the silver futures market ($SILVER) to the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) and focus specifically on the different readings from the CMF, which represents buying vs selling pressure.

CHART 3. DAILY CHART COMPARISON OF SILVER FUTURES VS ISHARES SILVER TRUST ETF. Notice the difference in money flow between the two.

The price correlation between the two markets is very tight, as SLV is a commodity-backed ETF.  But look at the difference in money flow. The futures market shows a positive reading while the ETF dipped into negative territory. 

Does this represent the sentiment of different types of market participants—namely, institutional investors (or commercial traders) versus retail investors? If so, might it indicate that the bigger players are buying what the retail traders are selling to them at a possible discount? It’s something to think about.

Analyzing SLV’s Near-Term Price Action

Take a look at the daily chart of SLV below. The StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score is soaring above the 90 line, indicating technical bullishness across several indicators and timeframes.

The CMF is below the zero line, indicating retail investors may be liquidating positions. However, is quiet accumulation occurring among institutional players in the futures market amid retail selling?

CHART 4. DAILY CHART OF SLV. The CMF divergence is clear, but given how it almost contradicts the reading you get with silver futures, it almost changes the story the charts tell.

 Take a look at the trendline (black) on the SLV chart. If silver’s seasonal tendency materializes, then you would expect near-term weakness. SLV’s price will likely test the trendline first (at whatever price point that will be at the moment) before testing the most recent swing low at $26.00. Should the price break below that level, you can expect support at the next major swing low at $24.00. 

If price falls below that, there is further support at consecutive swing lows, but you will want to re-examine the macro situation before taking any further action.

Add the following two charts to your StockCharts ChartLists.

The $SILVER chart shows what the silver futures (continuous contracts) price action looks like in contrast to the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV). The ETF is designed to track the futures, but look closely—those little technical differences might lead you to hidden market opportunities.

Closing Bell

Not many retail traders see it, but silver shines in the AI world. AI’s rise as a portfolio must-have puts a spotlight on silver’s critical role in tech production. But there’s a catch—silver supply may not be keeping up with soaring demand. While silver futures show strong buying, retail investors are ditching the SLV ETF. Big players might be scooping up what retail traders are selling, potentially setting the stage for a massive price surge later in the year.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, available to watch below, Dave continues a three-part series on selecting top charts to follow every month. In this second episode, Dave reviews charts he and Grayson Roze selected in May and June, reflecting on what has happened, what has changed in terms of the technical analysis picture, and how you can use a similar approach to monitor your own portfolio or watch list.

See Dave and Grayson Roze’s picks for May 2024 and June 2024 here! And watch part 1 of this series here!

This video originally premiered on July 10, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.