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America’s political leaders described the 2024 presidential election as a life-or-death crucible long before a man opened fire at Donald Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania, wounding the former president and killing a supporter.

Since then, Trump’s allies have moved quickly to blame liberals and the media for the would-be assassin’s actions, before any public evidence of his motivations. Biden’s campaign has pulled its advertising and events but remains committed to a fiercely negative campaign that casts Trump as a threat to basic freedoms and the American system of government.

The result is a nation on edge, two presidential efforts poised to spend $1 billion on advertising to demonize each other and 112 days until the polls close.

“This country over the last several years has gone from being polarized to being polarized and radicalized,” said Michael Jensen of the University of Maryland’s START consortium for terrorism research.

The former leads to gridlock, he explained, the latter to violence.

“It’s reasonable for us to express outrage. It’s reasonable for us to call for unity. It’s reasonable for us to denounce these types of acts,” he said. “I don’t know that it’s reasonable for us to act surprised.”

Investigators said they had no information Sunday about the motives of the shooter, whom they identified as a 20-year-old with no known history of violence, little to no social media profile and no significant involvement in political causes. Authorities said his bullets had killed a man in the crowd and injured others, including Trump, whose ear was bloodied.

The tenor of the campaign trail had been transformed long before the shots rang out Saturday in Butler, Pa. Gone are the soapbox saws about “our children’s future” and “the most important election of our lifetime” that punctuated U.S. elections for decades. In their place have been dire warnings of doom should the other side prevail.

“Donald Trump is a genuine threat to our nation,” Biden’s campaign announced weeks ago, before a Supreme Court decision on immunity that the president’s campaign declared would allow Trump to “become the dictator that he promised to be on day one.”

Trump has encouraged violence against protesters at his own rallies and calls those who were convicted of participation in the 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol “hostages.” He has described his political opponents as “vermin” and warned that the nation would face terminal decline during a second Biden term. “If he wins this election, our country doesn’t have a chance,” Trump said at the June debate with Biden.

Prominent Democrats have been nearly universal in condemning Saturday’s shooting, and both sides have expressed a desire to be more careful with their rhetoric over the coming days.

“Unity is the most elusive goal of all, but nothing is important than that right now,” Biden said in a White House statement Sunday, after meeting with his team investigating the shooting. “We’ll debate, and we’ll disagree. That’s not — that’s not going to change. … We’re going to not lose sight of the fact of who we are as Americans.”

Trump has told his team to focus programming for the Republican National Convention, which begins Monday, on a theme of “unity.” His advisers have suggested to speakers a need to “dial it down, not dial it up,” according to a person who has spoken with Trump and who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.

But grievance remains the dominant currency of American politics — the conviction that one side has been victimized by the other. There was little evidence on Sunday that calls for greater understanding across party lines had filtered down to the grassroots — or that any softening of divisions would last.

Bob Branch, a GOP delegate from Arizona who is running for a seat on Maricopa County’s governing board, spoke with a shaking voice about the shooting before he boarded a flight Sunday to the Republican convention in Milwaukee.

“If you look at the media all these visceral ads that Biden is running — that Trump’s a dictator, that he’s Xi, that he’s Putin’s puppet. You see all that, there’s no wonder why someone doesn’t get amped up and try to kill him,” he said. “Biden can’t beat him any other way.”

David Lara, a Republican delegate from the Arizona border town of San Luis, also put the blame squarely on Biden. “He’s preaching one thing, and he did totally the opposite,” Lara said. “That causes people like this person to do something like this. Joe Biden doesn’t have a leg to stand on — he did what he’s accusing other people of doing, and he should have known better.”

A YouGov survey conducted Sunday described the contours of a rattled nation. Two out of every three respondents said the current political climate makes violence more likely, while 8 out of 10 said political violence is a problem.

The share of Americans who support the use of force for political ends remains much smaller. One research project by the Democracy Fund found that 2 percent of Democrats and 4 percent of Republicans consistently justified violence for political ends in surveys between 2019 and 2022. More than 8 in 10 Americans said violence for political goals was never justified.

Whether rhetoric from candidates or campaigns directly influences violent acts is a more complicated question.

The man who attacked then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband with a hammer in 2022 testified at his trial about several right-wing conspiracy theories, saying that he spent up to six hours a day watching political commentary on YouTube before the attack.

The man who shot President Ronald Reagan in 1981 said he aimed to impress a Hollywood actress. The 22-year old man who shot Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-Ariz.) in 2011 was later diagnosed as a paranoid schizophrenic. One of the two attempts on President Gerald Ford’s life in 1975 was committed by a woman who had been a follower of cult leader Charles Manson.

Robert A. Pape, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, has been studying political violence for decades and surveying Americans on the topic for four years. His research finds little direct correlation between social media use and support for the use of force to achieve political ends, since most people still get their news from major news organizations. He argues that a deeper upheaval is gripping the country, turning policy debates into more existential contests.

“What is underlying this are more likely major divisions about where the country should go,” he said. “We are in the next 10 years about to go from a White-majority democracy to a multiracial democracy.”

Those tensions, he said, drive the divisive rhetoric around racial justice and immigration that animates much of this year’s presidential contest. Policy disputes are often no longer about policy but the fundamental character and foundation of the country.

“There is this feeling that this is a divide about what America means, and we don’t have a love for the institutions that we used to,” presidential historian Douglas Brinkley said.

Biden supporters have focused on rhetoric from the right, like a quote from Kevin Roberts, the head of the Heritage Foundation think tank, who said in a statement in early July that the nation is “in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.”

Roberts said he has “made clear that patriotic Americans were committed to a peaceful revolution at the ballot box, but the Left may commit violence to stop them.”

Trump’s supporters have focused on Biden’s own rhetoric. After what many analysts and critics called a disastrous debate performance, Biden spoke to donors last week about the need to change topics and “put Trump in the bull’s eye,” before going on to describe the policy contrasts he would make.

Roberts said that sort of rhetoric has “now led to murder and grieving families.”

The Biden campaign said in a statement that “in a moment when Americans should come together and unite to condemn this horrifying attack, anyone — especially elected officials with national platforms — politicizing this tragedy, spreading disinformation, and seeking to further divide Americans isn’t just unacceptable — it’s an abdication of leadership.”

What concerns those who study political violence is that the public tensions and fighting have a way of filtering into deluded and unstable minds, indirectly leading to violence.

“This isn’t ‘random,’” Elizabeth Neumann, who served as a senior Homeland Security official during the Trump administration, wrote on X about Saturday’s shooting. “We are swimming in a toxic soup of grievance, anger, constant outrage and fear — this milieu directly contributes to people concluding that violence is somehow justified.”

There is little indication that an attempt on the life of a former U.S. president and the presumptive Republican nominee will change that recipe anytime soon.

But in a best-case scenario, researchers hope it forces people to reconsider their behavior.

“This is a reckoning for political leaders and for ordinary Americans,” said Cynthia Miller-Idriss, who leads the PERIL extremism research lab at American University. “It’s a moment when everyone should be thinking about the role they play in escalating the potential for violence.”

Wingett Sanchez reported from Phoenix. Josh Dawsey contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on The Washington Post

Three of the finalists to be former president Donald Trump’s running mate have responded in different ways to Saturday’s shooting at a Pennsylvania rally, which the authorities have called an assassination attempt.

As many elected officials have over the past 24 hours, Sens. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, issued public statements responding to the shooting.

Vance’s statement stood out for its political attack on Trump’s opponent. He took to social media Saturday night, even as public information about the shooting and suspect was limited, to blame President Biden’s campaign rhetoric.

“Today is not just some isolated incident,” he posted on X. “The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.”

Biden has condemned Saturday’s attack in Pennsylvania and called on Americans to reject political violence.

After Trump announced that he would head to Milwaukee on Sunday for the Republican National Convention as planned, Vance posted: “The dude is just built different.”

The Trump campaign has been aiming to name a running mate by Monday, the first day of the convention. As of Sunday afternoon, a pick had not been announced.

Rubio invoked his Christian faith as he weighed in on the shooting. He posted the image of Trump defiantly pumping his fist in the air, as he was rushed offstage, writing on X: “God protected President Trump.”

Vance and Rubio also criticized the news media’s coverage and posted a link to a fundraiser for the victims of the shooting.

Burgum posted the same image of Trump that Rubio used and wrote: “We all know President Trump is stronger than his enemies. Today he showed it.”

He also said that he and his wife were praying “for President Trump, his family and everyone attending the rally.”

This post appeared first on The Washington Post

MILWAUKEE — Law enforcement officials said Sunday they are not increasing security for this week’s Republican National Convention, even as Wisconsin’s Democratic governor pushed to expand where guns would be restricted.

The law enforcement officials said they developed a robust plan over 18 months that does not need to be updated after the shooting Saturday at former president Donald Trump’s rally.

“There have been no changes to our current operational security plans for this event,” said Audrey Gibson-Cicchino, the Secret Service coordinator for the convention.

Michael E. Hensle, the FBI special agent in charge of the Milwaukee field office, said law enforcement evaluated online activity and found “no articulated threat” to the Republican National Committee or individuals.

They spoke at a news conference ahead of Monday’s kickoff of the four-day convention and soon after Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) asked the Secret Service to work with the RNC to further restrict guns near the convention, according to a person briefed on the discussion who spoke about the sensitive matter on the condition of anonymity.

So far, the area where guns are restricted has not been changed. Guns are banned for the general public in and near the Fiserv Forum, where the convention is being held, but not elsewhere in downtown Milwaukee. Wisconsin law generally allows people to carry guns openly without a permit and to carry them concealed with a permit.

Gibson-Cicchino said she could not speak to the governor’s request because she had not had any conversations about it, but added she did not expect to change the security footprint that determines where guns are restricted. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel first reported on Evers’s request.

The convention is being held two days after a gunman shot at Trump during a campaign rally in Butler, Pa. Trump was rushed offstage by Secret Service agents. Gibson-Cicchino declined to answer questions about the shooting, saying she would address only the convention.

Downtown Milwaukee is already heavily fortified for the convention. Its streets are lined with fences, concrete barriers, security checkpoints and officers in bulletproof vests.

On Sunday, the law enforcement officials sought to reassure the public, saying they are confident in the plan they have put together and would adapt it if circumstances change.

“I just wanted to reassure those not only in the convention but also in our city: We got this,” Milwaukee Police Chief Jeffrey Norman said.

Among the outside agencies assisting with convention security was U.S. Capitol Police, with a dozen officers walking the streets in uniform Sunday, including some wearing K-9 and bomb squad vests.

In an interview, Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson (D) said he joined a bipartisan coalition that successfully lobbied Congress months ago to increase the grant for security for the Republican convention from $50 million to $75 million.

“I’m a public safety mayor,” he said. “We want to make sure we have not just a safe convention, but a safe city.”

Johnson said he understands some convention attendees may be worried about security.

“In light of what happened yesterday,” he said, “that’s a question that would naturally come up in people’s minds.”

Brian Schimming, the chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party, said some delegates had expressed worries about safety after Saturday’s rally shooting but became more confident when they saw the police presence.

Downtown Milwaukee is probably the most secure place on the face of the earth right now,” he said.

Members of Louisiana’s convention delegation toted clear plastic bags provided by convention organizers as they prepared to board a charter bus to a “Red, White and Brew” welcome event inside the secure zone Sunday evening. Many said they were confident the area had been secured.

“With the amount of police and security, I’m okay,” said Derek Babcock, chairman of the state GOP. “It’s probably a little more heightened at this one.”

Babcock, who works at an insurance agency outside Baton Rouge, said that as he traversed Milwaukee this weekend, he noticed more law enforcement than at RNC conventions he attended in 2016 and 2012. A gun owner and gun-rights supporter, Babcock normally opposes gun-free zones but said the convention is different. Like several others in his delegation, he said he left his gun at home but still felt safe.

“With most gun-free zones, you don’t have this level of security,” he said.

But Babcock still worried about his group’s safety away from the convention, so he contacted Milwaukee police and private security companies to see if they could better secure their hotel on the outskirts of the city.

“I don’t feel like there’s a significantly increased threat at all, but obviously there’s tension,” he said. “I don’t think anyone feels we’re in harm’s way. We just want to be prudent.”

Entering the secure zone late Sunday, Babcock said he was impressed with the security he saw. “I see the magnetometers here, they have people on the rooftops with binoculars on tripods, watching. They’ve got it pretty secure around here,” he said.

Suzanne White, 63, an alternate delegate from Baton Rouge, said she doesn’t think many attendees are fearful.

“All I sense is more resolve. I don’t in my circles here sense any fear,” she said. “We have a president who is willing to take a bullet for this country. How can we possibly fear going to this convention? We stand with him.”

Stephanie Soucek, a delegate from Sturgeon Bay, Wis., said after the shooting, she got text messages from others going to the convention who were worried about security. She said the number of police officers on the street helped alleviate her concerns.

“I kind of just reassured myself, because I know that security has been such a high focus,” she said. “And then, actually, after last night … I just know people will be on high alert.”

Steve Zipperman, an Arizona Republican delegate from a city north of Phoenix, said he was entering the convention with a feeling of uncertainty.

“We’re uncertain about the security measures that are going to be in place and about what’s Trump going to have to say about it,” Zipperman said. “We’d like to have a peaceful trip and event.” He expected the shooting to change security measures not just at the convention but also on the campaign trail.

“I think that the candidates on both sides have been very casual about security at this point,” he said. “In a way, it’s a wake-up call.”

Yvonne Wingett Sanchez contributed to this report from Phoenix.

This post appeared first on The Washington Post

It was a very interesting week indeed. All-time high records continued to fall on a daily basis, but the complexion of the market most definitely changed during the latter part of the week. First, I want to pull up an hourly RRG chart to track 10 key growth stocks, most of which have carried the overall S&P 500 higher throughout 2024:

This chart is tracking the relative rotation of these 10 growth stocks (vs. the benchmark S&P 500) over the last 20 periods, or roughly 3 days. Many of these stocks started their 3-day journey on the right side of this chart, which highlights tremendous relative strength at that time. But look where they finished on Friday. Not one of these 10 stocks finished in the leading quadrant. Not one. AAPL held up best, but TSLA, META, and COST tumbled to close out the week. That type of behavior among these growth juggernauts would likely send you to the conclusion that we had 3 really bad days in the market. Instead, look at how the S&P 500 performed over the past 3 days from this hourly chart:

So what happened? How did the S&P 500 hold up when its most-heavily-weighted stocks fell so quickly?

Rotation. Bullish rotation. This is what sustains bull markets. Even the biggest and best leaders fall from time to time. But does the money leave the stock market or does it simply rotate and drive prices higher elsewhere. Well, last week it was the latter. Let’s check out large-cap growth (IWF) and large-cap value (IWD) and then the 11 sectors on that same 20-period RRG chart:

IWF:IWD

Sectors

In this case, two pictures say two thousand words.

Could the relative performance of the IWF and IWD have shown more disparity over the past few days than they did? Growth was tossed out the window, while traders suddenly fell in love with value stocks. I believe the June CPI report was the primary trigger for this rotation. I viewed it as a “sell on news” for growth stocks after months of “buying on rumor”. I also view it as “warning shots fired” towards Fed Chief Powell and his band of hawks. This report was an absolute DAGGER for those Fed officials that believe we should remain on the current “higher rates for longer” bandwagon. Check out the latest chart on core inflation at the consumer level:

The 1-month and 12-month rate of change (ROC) have rapidly declined. I swear I think the Fed is looking at a different chart, or maybe someone needs to turn their computers right side up. They’ve made it clear that they want sustainability towards their 2% target level. It sure seems to me that monthly Core CPI is back in the normal range and has been moving sustainably towards 2% for at least the last year. Yet the Fed keeps waiting, even talking about the possibility of another hike. Personally, I’m sick of this Fed. As I said, warning shots have been fired over the past few weeks. The bond market is SCREAMING at the Fed to lower rates. And growth stocks have just had their second bout of significant selling. We’re teetering folks.

I’ve been steadfastly bullish throughout this secular bull market, suggesting to everyone to avoid all the noise about crashes and collapses. I am, however, growing worried about the Fed’s handling of monetary policy. There are already economic signals that are telling me the cracks in our economic foundation are growing and spreading and that hopes of a “soft landing” are dwindling. If this isn’t stopped SOON, it’ll be too late, and we could be staring at a SIGNIFICANT market meltdown in the weeks and months ahead.

On Saturday, July 27th at 10:00am ET, I will be hosting an extremely important event, “The Fed and The Presidential Election Cycle: Why the S&P 500 May Tumble”. This event is FREE, but you must register and capacity is limited. If you want to consider ways to protect your capital, then I am urging you to sign up EARLY. For more information and to register, CLICK HERE.

Happy trading!

Tom

There was no doubt that new leadership emerged last week. Here were 3 areas that surged higher, either moving to fresh 52-week highs or breaking significant downtrends:

Small Caps

The small cap Russell 2000 (IWM) has been trying to clear the 210-211 area for the past two years. After doing so late last week, the IWM appears poised to make a run at its all-time high near 235:

The really interesting part about small caps is that many traders don’t believe that they can perform well. They’ve underperformed for so long that short-term strength doesn’t feel sustainable. However, if you have long-term perspective, then you realize that recent weakness in the IWM is the outlier, not the norm. The bottom panel above shows the 10-year history of correlation between the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. You can see that the overwhelming majority of time, the S&P 500 and the IWM move together directionally. The inverse correlation of late was the worst in the past 10 years. In fact, there’s only been one other time where inverse correlation has reached the -0.50 level and that was back in 2017. The norm is for the IWM to follow the S&P 500 higher during a secular bull market. The breakout last week is likely to see the IWM and S&P 500 correlation move back into that blue territory, particularly that dark blue territory that marks extreme positive correlation. Historically, the two spend much more time trending together.

Regional Banks:

The regional banking ETF (KRE) is on the doorstep of a MAJOR breakout, so I’ll be watching this area very closely next week. It’s also one of the highest-weighted industry groups in the IWM. Over the past three years, the 52.50 level has marked key support and resistance. Check this out:

Intraday, we saw the KRE touch 52.57 on Friday, but it was unable to close above 52.50. If we see the breakout this week, we need to pay attention to regional banks that have already made breakouts and are showing leadership. I plan to feature one of my favorite regional bank stocks in our FREE EB Digest newsletter on Monday morning. If you’d like to review my chart and are not already an EB Digest subscriber, CLICK HERE to sign up. There is no credit card required and you may unsubscribe at any time.

I also look at many technically-sound financial stocks and small cap stocks on my latest “EB Weekly Market Recap” video. This week’s video, “Market Rotation in Full Effect”, is a must-see to fully understand the key rotation that we experienced last week and why that rotation could be the start of a much larger change in the attitude of traders.

Happy trading!

Tom

Bankir and his men have been trying to fight off Russian attacks along the Ukrainian front lines for more than two years. But it’s only now that they are finally able to strike where it hurts: Inside Russia’s own territory.

After many months on the back foot because of ammunition and manpower shortages, Kyiv is finally able to take full advantage of Western military aid that started to flow into the country last month, after months of delays.

Soldiers on the front lines say the deliveries are beginning to make a difference – especially since they can now use the arsenal to strike across the border.

“We are deploying the most effective weapons systems in the areas where the Russians are trying to break through the defensive lines and there has been a significant slowdown in the Russian advance,” he added.

While Kyiv hasn’t managed to reclaim large swathes of territory, it has successfully averted what could have been a disaster: The occupation of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city.

‘Tragic moment’

Part of the northern Kharkiv region, including the cities of Izium, Kupiansk, and Balakliia, fell into Russian hands soon after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The occupation was brutal. When the area was liberated in the fall of 2022, Ukrainian troops found evidence of what they say were war crimes committed by Russian forces, including multiple mass graves and torture chambers.

In May this year, Russia launched another cross-border attack on the region, trying to exploit Ukraine’s ammunition shortages before the expected arrival of the first Western weapons.

The consequences were deadly. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) said that at least 174 civilians were killed and 690 were injured in Ukraine in May, the highest number of civilian casualties in a year.

More than half of the civilian casualties were in Kharkiv – even though the region encompasses a relatively small area compared to the whole country.

But it also marked a major turning point.

“It triggered a change in the position of our Western partners, it encouraged them to, at least partially, remove the restrictions on the use of the Western weapons,” he said.

Fearing an escalation, the US and other Western allies had long prohibited Kyiv from using their weapons to strike inside Russia, restricting their use to Ukrainian areas under Russian occupation.

That has allowed Russia to use the border areas as safe staging grounds for offensives and missile attacks.

“(Russia) knew that Ukraine did not have the capacity to strike these targets on the Russian territory,” Melnyk said.

“If the decision (to provide aid) wasn’t made, if we lost American support and military assistance, that would have been a game changer.”

But the possibility of Russian re-occupation of parts of Kharkiv region convinced some of Ukraine’s key allies, including the US, to lift the restrictions. This allowed Kyiv to hit and destroy or severely damage key targets inside Russia.

According to Ukrainian defense authorities, these included a regiment command post in Belgorod region, an ammunition depot in Voronezh, a drone facility and an airfield in Krasnodar, communication centers in Bryansk and several naval sites in occupied Crimea.

The arrival of long-range ATACMS missile systems was a particular game-changer, Melnyk said. While Ukraine was previously able to strike targets inside Russia using Ukraine-made drones, ATACMS make these strikes far more efficient.

“Speed matters,” Melnyk explained. “With drone strikes, Russians have hours to react, because they can detect Ukrainian drones early. Russian pilots can have a coffee and a cigarette before jumping into the cockpit and taking off to take it down. With the ATACMS, it’s a matter of minutes,” he said.

Konrad Muzyka, an independent defense analyst and the director of Rochan Consulting who has recently returned from eastern Ukraine, said Russia is also no longer able to target Kharkiv region with S-300 and S-400 missile systems.

“Ukraine started conducting HIMARS strikes on targets in the Belgorod region and forced the Russians to push their S-300 system with which they were striking Kharkiv much further away, so now Kharkiv is beyond their range of Russian S-300 systems,” he said.

While Russia switched to aerial glide bombs – guided munitions with pop-up wings dropped by fighter jets from a distance of some 60-70 kilometers – out of range of Ukraine’s air defenses, the elimination of the S-300 threat has provided at least some relief to Kharkiv.

Weapons without men, men without strategy?

But while the new weapons are making some difference, Ukraine is long way off being able to push Russian forces off its territory.

“It isn’t enough to turn the tide at the front. Enough to hold the enemy back, yes, but not enough to change the situation dramatically,” he said.

“The enemy is now exhausted but not destroyed,” he said, pointing to the fact that Russia still has complete air superiority over Ukraine.

Kyiv is now pinning its hopes on the deliveries of F-16 fighter jets which should start soon – the first Ukrainian pilots were set to complete their training in the US this summer.

But Muzyka said it is far from certain the jets will bring a massive change to Ukraine’s fortunes.

“The F-16s are combat aircraft from 1980s and 1990s and their capabilities are worse than the most modern Russian combat aircraft,” he said, adding that the newest Russian jets would likely prevail in an air battle with the F-16.

However, Ukraine can still use the F-16 to deny Russia control over the skies – and push away Russian aircraft delivering bombs.

Yet the new weapons are just part of the puzzle.

“If it had not been for the supplemental package, Ukrainians would be in a much worse situation right now, but at the same time, the current situation is not only the result of a lack of actions by the US Congress, it’s also the result of the decisions that were made and were not made in Kyiv, especially when it comes to mobilization,” Muzyka said.

“The decision to introduce a wider mobilization was probably as important, if not more important, and it came too late,” he said. The new mobilization law, which requires all men between 18 and 60 to register with Ukraine’s military, came into effect in May.

He said that while Ukraine has managed to recruit a significant number of men over the past month and half, it will take time for these new soldiers to be trained up and ready for the front lines.

“Ukrainians are going to be in a very difficult position until August, September, when the first mobilized guys start to enter the front line. If they can get to that point, then there is a big likelihood that they will manage to stabilize the situation from August onwards, but until this happens, more Russian gains are highly likely.”

Muzyka said that with the new weapons arriving and battalions and brigades getting a boost soon from the new recruits, Ukraine will need to decide on its next steps.

“It is unclear what the plans are. What is the strategy for counteroffensives? The problem is that Ukraine is waiting to see what equipment the West can supply them with, and the West is waiting to see what plans Ukraine have for the future,” he said.

Time is of the essence here. Experts estimate that the $60 billion US aid package approved earlier this year will last for – at best – a year or 18 months.

Ukraine’s allies made fresh pledges on arms this week while at a NATO summit in Washington, DC, President Volodymyr Zelensky called for all restrictions on their usage to be lifted.

Given the possibility of former US President Donald Trump winning a second term in November – he has little time to spare.

Maria Kostenko and Daria Tarasova-Markina contributed reporting.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

A recent spate of alarming deaths has heightened fears for the Malayan tiger, wildlife authorities and conservationists say, with some calling the threat to Malaysia’s emblematic animal a “national emergency.”

Native to the jungles of peninsular Malaysia, the majestic feline subspecies is critically endangered, with fewer than 150 believed to be left in the wild due to habitat loss, illegal poaching and a decline in prey.

Found on Malaysia’s coat of arms and considered a national heritage symbol, its numbers have plummeted since the 1950s, when around 3,000 roamed the Southeast Asian country, officials say.

Against that already grim backdrop, photos and videos of a dead Malayan tiger went viral on social media in late June. The carcass, found bloated and floating in a stream in the rural northern state of Kelantan, was discovered by forest rangers.

There was no sign of injury from snares or gunshots, and state forestry officials are conducting a post-mortem examination.

The images provoked strong reactions from many in Malaysia, who noted the urgency of saving their national symbol from extinction.

Stronger conservation efforts are needed, he added, such as enhancing patrols in critical tiger habitats and leveraging advanced technology such as camera traps and drones for monitoring and surveillance.

“These magnificent creatures continue to teeter on the brink of extinction,” Chan said.

“Losing just one tiger brings the entire species closer to extinction, making every individual tiger’s life extremely critical to the survival of the species.”

“The Malayan tiger is on the brink of extinction with fewer than 150 remaining in the wild,” said Mark Rayan Darmaraj, country director of Wildlife Conservation Society Malaysia, who noted that suspected poachers were arrested in a separate case in the nearby state of Pahang the following day, “in possession of the skull and bones of a tiger.”

“They suffer from habitat loss, prey depletion and retaliatory killings stemming from human-tiger conflicts,” he said.

“Additionally, the construction of roads through their habitats increases the risk of fatal vehicle collisions as seen in several recent incidents.”

On July 6, authorities in the western state of Perak were alerted to a dead tiger found in a storm drain off a major highway. Estimated to have been around 4 years old, the adult male had been hit by a car, officials said.

A month earlier, the body of another adult tiger was found by an expressway in Pahang state. Officials believe the tiger, believed to have been 5 years old, was run over by a vehicle while trying to cross the road from a nearby forest reserve.

It was the fourth Malayan tiger killed by a vehicle collision between November 2023 and May 2024, according to authorities.

Eight-year plan

The Malayan tiger was recognized as a subspecies in 2004. Like all tigers, they are excellent swimmers and powerful apex predators.

Smaller than Indonesia’s Sumatran tigers and the Bengal tigers found across South Asia, Malayan tigers can grow to about 2.5 meters (about 8 feet) long and weigh up to 130 kilograms (about 280 pounds), experts say, and need large swaths of forest to roam.

Their slightly darker, reddish-orange coats also distinguish them from other tiger species.

In an eight-year National Tiger Conservation Action Plan released in collaboration with non-profit groups in 2020, Malaysian officials outlined priorities such as conservation tools and a “National Physical Plan” to aid conservation efforts.

“By implementing a suite of concerted actions, backed by political commitment and public support, we as a nation and as part of the global conservation community can ensure that one of the most majestic and charismatic animals with which we share the planet will not vanish,” the report said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

When two US avocado inspectors were assaulted and detained at a police roadblock in the Mexican state of Michoacán last month, it sparked a costly international crisis.

The US paused all avocado imports from the state for more than a week, leaving Mexican growers out of tens of millions of dollars and temporarily sending the price of a carton of the fruit in the US soaring by 40 percent, according to analysis firm RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness.

Weeks later, after diplomats and agricultural officials from both countries negotiated new security guidelines around inspections, the massive cross-border trade has stabilized, with the US Department of Agriculture saying that export levels returned to normal at the beginning of July.

But the episode underscored the precarious nature of the industry and the immense volatility in a region that provides most of the world’s avocados, one of Mexico’s most dangerous states and a nexus of cartel power.

US and Mexican officials are now considering new changes to the strict processes that direct how the fruit can make its way to American kitchens to meet ever-increasing demand, with industry groups and advocates urging for more oversight.

‘Green gold’

Avocados, the creamy fruit with the industry nickname “green gold,” are big business. Of the amount exported from the nearly 2.7 million metric tons of the fruit grown last year in Mexico, 81 percent went to the US, at a value of $2.7 billion.

Nearly three-quarters of Mexican avocados come from Michoacán, a state along the country’s Pacific coast with a volcanic belt running through it that makes its soil ideal for farming. The state’s deepwater port has also been critical for the flourishing of drug cartels, which moved into Michoacán in the 1980s, fueling a homicide rate that is today more than twice the national average.

The expansion of the avocado market in the state around the same time has been “deeply intertwined” with the violent groups and corrupt public authorities, researchers at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime said in a report this year.

Citing interviews with growers in the state, the researchers described how criminal groups illegally burn and log protected forests and bribe local officials to change permissions around the use of the land to allow for commercial activity. According to an academic article published by the Mexican government cited in the report, 80 percent of the avocado orchards in Michoacán were established illegally, “initially through unauthorized land use that was then turned into legal parcels thanks to corruption of public authorities.”

Cartels today also regularly extort producers in protection schemes, the report found. Local police forces in turn commonly rent themselves out as security for producers, and heavily armed militias known as “autodefensa” groups have formed to patrol farms.

“This is the core of the mafia-style relationships that exist in Michoacán around avocado production,” Romain Le Cour, one of the report authors and a senior expert at the initiative, said in an interview. “You need criminal actors in a way to stir up the business, you need business entrepreneurs to run the business, and you need corrupt authorities to make sure that what you’re doing becomes legalized or laundered.”

Mexican officials in the aftermath of the detention of the inspectors in June were quick to downplay the incident, claiming it was nonviolent and unrelated to organized crime and the inspectors’ work in the avocado industry.

The inspectors, who were Mexican citizens working for the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, were stopped and taken from their car after attempting to cross a barricade on a highway set up by police officers who were protesting a pay issue, according to Alfredo Ramírez Bedolla, the Michoacán governor.

A dangerous job

Since the US first allowed imports of avocados from Michoacán in 1997, APHIS employees in the country have inspected avocado orchards to ensure they are free of pests that could harm US avocado crops. About 100 inspectors from the agency operate within the state, according to Ramírez, visiting avocado groves and packing facilities to check the fruit before issuing a certification.

That close contact and pivotal responsibility leaves them “extremely exposed to corruption and violence,” said Le Cour, the GI-TOC expert.

In 2022, exports of Mexican avocados were similarly halted for several days after one of the US inspectors working in Michoacán received a threatening phone call.

In the wake of both incidents, Mexican leaders have pushed to change the bilateral agreement regulating the trade to allow for the Mexican government to take over the inspections, with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador criticizing the US decision to halt the export as “arrogance.”

In a news conference last month, Mexican Agriculture Minister Victor Villalobos said the Mexican government was “perfectly prepared” to do the work, which he said would be valuable to “avoid having to stop the export.”

Officials at the US State Department and USDA have considered the possible change, according to Ken Melban, the vice president for industry affairs and operations at the California Avocado Commission, which represents growers in the state.

In a statement, Melban called it “unimaginable the US government would consider abdicating inspection responsibilities to Mexico.”

“US farmers will not be protected under such a program, one intended and designed specifically to protect US farmers’ economic interests,” he said.

An APHIS spokesperson declined to comment on the thinking around the policy.

US and Mexican officials have also recently resurfaced discussions around a policy to block the export of avocados from Mexico grown in orchards on illegally cleared lands, according to Brad Adams, the executive director of Climate Rights International, an advocacy group that used satellite imagery last year to document the widespread deforestation behind the market.

Instead, the agency pointed towards training and technical assistance that the US Forest Service has provided to Mexico “to support real-time deforestation monitoring of priority regions.”

“We’ve exposed something that is illegal and therefore indefensible,” Adams said. “They have an obligation that they recognize at a governmental level in Mexico, and the US can’t keep importing illegally harvested produce.”

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Poland is considering a Ukrainian proposal to intercept Russian rockets that are on course to hit cities in Ukraine or enter Polish territory, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said following a speech at the American Enterprise Institute on the sidelines of the NATO summit on Friday.

“We are a frontline state and Russian missiles breach our airspace – we assume by mistake,” Sikorski said.

Sikorski explained that some missiles fired from around St. Petersburg fly along the Polish border through Belarusian airspace, before briefly entering Polish airspace for about 40 seconds before hitting targets inside Ukraine.

“Our dilemma is the following: if we shoot them down only when they enter our airspace, the debris is a threat to our citizens and to our property,” he said.

“And the Ukrainians are saying, ‘Please, we will not mind, do it over our airspace when they’re in imminent danger of crossing into Polish territory,’” he said, “To my mind, that’s self-defense but we are exploring the idea.”

Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Warsaw to sign a security cooperation agreement between the two countries.

Sikorski said the idea of Poland downing Russian missiles was discussed in that agreement.

“At this stage, this is an idea. What our agreement said is we will explore this idea,” he said.

On Wednesday, Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz told Polish national radio service Polskie Radio 24 that such a decision would only be made with NATO allies.

“If NATO does not make such a decision, Poland will not make it individually,” Kosiniak-Kamysz said.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has defended Joe Biden after being called “President Putin” by him, calling it “a mistake.”

The US president accidentally referred to Zelensky as “President Putin” when introducing Zelensky at a NATO event on Thursday, before correcting the name moments later.

While the US president – who faces mounting pressure over whether he is fit enough to serve another term in office – played down the gaffe at a high-stakes news conference later that day, the incident was scrutinized internationally.

Russian state media seized on Biden’s performance to further criticize the NATO alliance, saying it turned the event into “a farce.”

However, when asked by press at Ireland’s Shannon Airport Saturday what his reaction was to the error, Zelensky shrugged and said, “It was a mistake.”

“I think United States gave a lot of support for Ukrainians. We can forget some mistakes, I think so,” he continued.

The US is providing Ukraine with much-needed military support in its war against Russia.

The Biden Administration announced a new $2.3 billion military aid package for Ukraine on Wednesday, and said an additional $2.2 billion will be purchased for Ukraine from US arms manufacturers under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which provides Kyiv with longer-term support.

Weeks earlier, the United States and Ukraine signed a bilateral security pact, which commits the US for 10 years to continued training of Ukraine’s armed forces, as well as more weapons support and intelligence sharing. Zelensky at the time described the security pact as “a bridge to Ukraine’s membership in NATO.”

In May, Biden also accepted a request from Ukraine for a change in policy, giving Ukraine permission to strike inside Russian territory, close to the Kharkiv border, with American munitions.

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