Author

admin

Browsing

The Israeli military detained six settlers in the occupied West Bank overnight after the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) say the suspects attacked security forces.

The IDF says they spotted Israeli civilians driving toward a closed military zone near the Palestinian village of Kafr Malik, where days earlier settlers set fire to homes and vehicles in an attack Palestinian officials say killed three people.

When Israeli forces approached the group, the IDF says the soldiers were physically assaulted and verbally abused. In addition, the suspects vandalized and damaged the security forces’ vehicles and attempted to ram the forces.

Six suspects were apprehended and transferred to police, the IDF said.

“The IDF and Israel Police condemn any act of violence against security forces and will act firmly against any attempt to harm security personnel carrying out their duty to protect Israeli citizens,” the IDF said in a statement.

Israeli politicians condemned the settler attacks against Israeli security forces.

Head of the opposition Yair Lapid said in a statement on social media, “The extremists who attack IDF soldiers who are guarding the security of the State of Israel during these difficult days are dangerous criminals who are aiding our enemies.”

Yair Golan, the head of the left-wing Democrats party, who had called earlier settler attacks in the area a “violent Jewish pogrom,” said the violence from “the Kahanist, nationalist, and fantastic Israel is deliberately working to dismantle the Jewish and democratic Israel.” Golan referenced Meir Kahane, an extremist rabbi whose political party was banned outright in Israel under anti-terror laws.

“This is not a marginal occurrence. This is a dangerous current that has taken deep roots. Even around the government table,” Golan said, a reference to the far-right ministers that prop up the coalition government, including Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, both of whom were sanctioned earlier this month by the UK, Canada, and other Western allies. Smotrich has called for formal annexation of West Bank settlements, while Ben-Gvir’s party consists of followers of Kahane’s banned political party.

In a statement, Defense Minister Israel Katz called on law enforcement authorities to act immediately to locate all those who resorted to violence and bring them to justice “as is done everywhere.”

On Friday, Nabil Abu Rudeineh, spokesman for the Palestinian Authority presidency, said the settler attacks are part of a plan by Israel’s “extremist right-wing government” to drag the West Bank into a larger confrontation, according to the Palestinian news agency WAFA. Abu Rudeineh held Israel fully responsible for “the consequences of this bloody aggression,” WAFA said.

Israel has been ramping up military operations in the West Bank alongside the offensive in Gaza and attacks on Iran and its proxies, displacing thousands of Palestinians and razing entire communities as it targets what it says are militants operating in the territory.

Earlier this week, Israeli forces shot dead a Palestinian teenager in the West Bank, Palestinian health authorities said. The Israeli military said that “terrorists hurled explosive devices at IDF forces.”

In late-May, Israel approved a massive expansion of settlements in the occupied West Bank in a move decried as de facto annexation of large swaths of the territory. Peace Now, an Israeli non-governmental organization that tracks settlements, said it was the largest expansion of settlements since the signing of the Oslo Accords more than 30 years ago.

Israel plans to establish 22 new settlements, including deep within the West Bank and in areas from which the country had previously withdrawn. Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, as well as in East Jerusalem and the occupied Golan Heights, are considered illegal under international law.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Beneath a blaze of rainbow flags and amid roars of defiance, big crowds gathered in the Hungarian capital Budapest for the city’s 30th annual Pride march – an event that, this year, is unfolding as both a celebration and a protest.

Moving through the capital in the sweltering heat, demonstrators carried signs reading “Solidarity with Budapest Pride” and waved placards bearing crossed-out illustrations of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Music played from portable speakers as people of all ages joined the march – families with pushchairs, teenagers draped in capes, and older residents walking alongside activists.

From the city’s historic centre to its riverside roads, the procession swelled in numbers and noise – visibly reclaiming public space in defiance of a law designed to push them out.

The march proceeded in open defiance of a police ban imposed earlier this year under sweeping new legislation that prohibits LGBTQ+ events nationwide.

Eszter Rein Bodi was one of those who joined the massive crowds in Budapest on Saturday, telling Reuters: “This is about much more, not just about homosexuality … This is the last moment to stand up for our rights.”

Krisztina Aranyi, another marcher, told the news agency that “the right to assembly is a basic human right, and I don’t think it should be banned.”

She added, “Just because someone does not like the reason why you go to the street, or they do not agree with it, you still have the right to do so.”

Huge crowds turned out in the city for the parade, with many holding homemade banners aloft. One sign read “Transgender people are a blessing on this earth” while another banner read “Proud. United. Equal in every corner of the EU.”

“Pride is a protest, and if Orbán can ban Budapest Pride without consequences, every pride is one election away from being banned,” she continued.

In March, Hungarian lawmakers passed legislation barring Pride events and permitting the use of facial recognition technology to identify participants – measures campaigners say is illegal and part of a wider crackdown on the LGBTQ+ community.

Orban welcomed the ban, which he said would outlaw gatherings that “violate child protection laws.” His government has pushed a strongly Christian and conservative agenda.

The ban sparked lively protests in Budapest in March, with organizers of the city’s Pride vowing to continue with the annual festival despite the new law and declaring: “We will fight this new fascist ban.”

A petition demanding police reject the ban has gathered over 120,000 signatures from supporters in 73 countries, urging authorities to “reject this unjust law” – believed to be the first of its kind in the EU’s recent history – and ensure that the march proceeded “unhindered and peacefully, free from discrimination, harassment, fear or violence.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

After Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez tied the knot in Venice on Friday, a few hundred protesters gathered Saturday at a city train station for a march, united with one message for the Amazon billionaire and his bride: go away.

“Bezos, f**k off,” they chanted in Italian. “Out of our lagoon!”

One bearded man toted a Shrek-themed placard with the same message: “Get Out of Our Lagoon,” the “a” in lagoon sprouting Shrek ears, with a Spotify link below for the theme song from the first movie in the series, Smash Mouth’s “All Star.”

“Bezos goes hand-in-hand with (US President Donald) Trump, who’s fueling more money in war,” one woman bellowed into a microphone by the station. “We are for peace.”

Sofia D’Amato, a 22-year-old Venetian, emphasized that the protests weren’t about envy for Bezos’ wealth or power.

Venice’s Ministry of Tourism says the three-day wedding, which reportedly cost $55 million, could provide a boost of almost 68% of the city’s annual tourism turnover. On top of that, Sanchez and Bezos gave 1 million euros each to three Venetian cultural institutions, according to Reuters; a total of 3 million euros worth of donations.

Their philanthropy left D’Amato unimpressed.

“They say that Jeff Bezos donated money to Venice,” D’Amato said. “It was donated after our dissent. Such a sum for a magnate is paltry.”

Protesters drew a stark contrast between the decadence of Bezos and Sanchez’s wedding the day before and the harsh realities of working at the billionaire’s company.

“We can barely pay the rent,” one woman, who identified herself as an Amazon worker, told a crowd of demonstrators. “Many of us come from far away to reach the warehouse. We make do … we don’t see these millions.”

Some protesters joined in an old leftist chant as the demonstration moved toward the Ponte delle Guglie: “The people united will never be defeated.”

At least one protester took aim at the couple’s fashion sense with a sign declaring that “Money Can’t Buy Style.”

Many held aloft Amazon boxes with various messages inscribed: “Rejected,” “No Space for Bezos.”

Multiple flags were visible among the protesters: Palestinian flags, pride flags, anti-fascist flags and Venice’s fimbriated red standard were among the popular choices. A few individuals waved a modified version, the sword-bearing golden lion at its hoist wearing a black balaclava.

Venice city officials were unamused by the protesters, denouncing them in a press release as “ridiculous” and “grotesque.”

“Contesting a wedding (any wedding) is already ridiculous in itself. But here we have exceeded all limits of common sense,” read a municipal statement released Saturday. “We have descended into the folklore of ‘No to everything.’”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Top Qatari officials had been meeting with the country’s prime minister on Monday afternoon to find ways of de-escalating a conflict between Iran and Israel, when defense ministry personnel called to warn of incoming Iranian missiles.

The attack, the first on the Gulf, caught them by surprise, according to Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari, who recalls feeling the prime minister’s residence shake with the interceptions that quickly followed overhead.

Unease had gripped the Gulf Arab states that morning. The glitzy, oil-rich capitals feared a worst-case scenario: an Iranian missile strike shattering their image of stability after 12 days of war between Israel and Iran, which had culminated in a series of US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Bahrain, where the US Naval Command is located, told residents not to use main roads and Kuwait, which hosts several US military bases, activated shelters in ministerial complexes. In nearby Dubai and Abu Dhabi, some residents were booking early flights out and others stocking up on supplies.

In Doha, nervous residents were on high alert. US and UK citizens in the country had been told to seek shelter and American military personnel had been evacuated from the US-run Al Udeid Base.

Qatar’s early warning military radar system, one of the most advanced in the region, and intelligence gathered indicated that Iranian missile batteries had moved toward Qatar earlier that day, the spokesperson said – but nothing was certain until shortly before the strikes.

“It could’ve been misdirected to lead us away from the actual target. There was still a lot of targets in the region…but towards the end it was very clear, their missile systems were hot and we had a very clear idea an hour before the attack, Al Udeid Base was going to be targeted,” a Qatari official with knowledge of defense operations said.

Responding to the attack

Around 7 p.m. local time, Qatari officials were informed by their military that Iran’s missiles were airborne and heading towards Al Udeid base, Al-Ansari said.

Qatar’s armed forces deployed 300 service members and activated multiple Qatari Patriot anti-air missile batteries across two sites to counter the 19 Iranian missiles roaring toward the country, according to Al-Ansari. US President Donald Trump has said that 14 missiles were fired from Iran.

Seven missiles were intercepted over the Persian Gulf before reaching Qatari soil, he said. Another 11 were intercepted over Doha without causing damage and one landed in an uninhibited area of the base causing minimal damage.

According to Trump, Iran had given the US early notice ahead of the attack. While Doha received intel from Washington, it did not receive any warning directly from the Iranians, according to Al-Ansari – though officials were well aware that the US bases in the region could be targeted.

“The Iranians told us months ago … if there was an attack by the US on Iranian soil that would make bases hosting American forces in the region legitimate targets,” Al-Ansari said.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that warning was reiterated to his Gulf counterparts in an Istanbul meeting a day before Iranian strikes on Qatar.

Iran’s National Security Council said after the intercepted attack that its strikes had posed “no dangerous aspect to our friendly and brotherly country of Qatar and its noble people.”

Still, Al-Ansari rejects speculation that Qatar – given its working relationship with Tehran – might have given a greenlight for the strikes in order to create an off-ramp for regional escalation.

“We do not take it lightly for our country to be attacked by missiles from any side and we would never do that as part of political posturing or a game in the region,” he said.

“We would not put our people in the line of danger. I would not put my daughter under missiles coming from the sky just to come out with a political outcome. This was a complete surprise to us,” Ansari said.

A ceasefire quickly follows

In the moments after the attack, Trump called Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani telling him the Israelis were willing to agree to a ceasefire and asked him to do the same for the Iranians, according to Al-Ansari.

“As we were discussing how to retaliate to this attack … this is when we get a call from the United States that a possible ceasefire, a possible avenue to regional security had opened,” Ansari said.

Doha’s role as mediator quickly became key in the aftermath of the strikes. Qatar’s chief negotiator Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi spoke to the Iranians while the Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani was speaking to US Vice President JD Vance. Soon, “we were able to secure a deal,” Al-Ansaris says – and in the nick of time.

“All options were on the table that night … we could have immediately retaliated or pulled back and say we’re not talking to a country that sent 19 missiles our way. But we also realized that was a moment that could create momentum for peace in a region that hasn’t been there for two years now,” Ansari said.

Shortly after, Trump declared on social media that a ceasefire between Iran and Israel had been brokered.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Riot police fired tear gas at thousands of anti-government protesters in Serbia’s capital on Saturday.

The major rally in Belgrade against Serbia’s populist president, Aleksandar Vucic, was called to back a demand for an early parliamentary election.

The protest by tens of thousands was held after nearly eight months of persistent demonstrations led by Serbia’s university students that have rattled Vucic’s firm grip on power in the Balkan country.

The huge crowd chanted “We want elections!” as they filled the capital’s central Slavija Square and several blocks around it, with many unable to reach the venue.

Tensions were high before and during the gathering. Riot police deployed around government buildings and close to a camp of Vucic’s loyalists in central Belgrade. Skirmishes erupted between riot officers and groups of protesters near the camp.

“Elections are a clear way out of the social crisis caused by the deeds of the government, which is undoubtedly against the interests of their own people,” said one of the students, who didn’t give her name while giving a speech on a stage to the crowd. “Today, on June 28, 2025, we declare the current authorities illegitimate.”

At the end of the official part of the rally, students told the crowd to “take freedom into your own hands.”

University students have been a key force behind nationwide anti-corruption demonstrations that started after a renovated rail station canopy collapsed, killing 16 people on Nov. 1.

Many blamed the concrete roof crash on rampant government corruption and negligence in state infrastructure projects, leading to recurring mass protests.

“We are here today because we cannot take it any more,” Darko Kovacevic said. “This has been going on for too long. We are mired in corruption.”

Vucic and his right-wing Serbian Progressive Party have repeatedly refused the demand for an early vote and accused protesters of planning to spur violence on orders from abroad, which they didn’t specify.

Vucic’s authorities have launched a crackdown on Serbia’s striking universities and other opponents, while increasing pressure on independent media as they tried to curb the demonstrations.

While numbers have shrunk in recent weeks, the massive showing for Saturday’s anti-Vucic rally suggested that the resolve persists, despite relentless pressure and after nearly eight months of almost daily protests.

Serbian police, which is firmly controlled by Vucic’s government, said that 36,000 people were present at the start of the protest on Saturday.

Saturday marks St. Vitus Day, a religious holiday and the date when Serbs mark a 14th-century battle against Ottoman Turks in Kosovo that was the start of hundreds of years of Turkish rule, holding symbolic importance.

In their speeches, some of the speakers at the student rally on Saturday evoked the theme, which was also used to fuel Serbian nationalism in the 1990s that later led to the incitement of ethnic wars following the breakup of the former Yugoslavia.

Hours before the student-led rally, Vucic’s party bused in scores of its own supporters to Belgrade from other parts of the country, many wearing T-shirts reading: “We won’t give up Serbia.” They were joining a camp of Vucic’s loyalists in central Belgrade where they have been staying in tents since mid-March.

In a show of business as usual, Vucic handed out presidential awards in the capital to people he deemed worthy, including artists and journalists.

“People need not worry – the state will be defended and thugs brought to justice,” Vucic told reporters on Saturday.

Serbian presidential and parliamentary elections are due in 2027.

Earlier this week, police arrested several people accused of allegedly plotting to overthrow the government and banned entry into the country, without explanation, to several people from Croatia and a theater director from Montenegro.

Serbia’s railway company halted train service over an alleged bomb threat in what critics said was an apparent bid to prevent people from traveling to Belgrade for the rally.

Authorities made similar moves back in March, before what was the biggest ever anti-government protest in the Balkan country, which drew hundreds of thousands of people.

Vucic’s loyalists then set up a camp in a park outside his office, which still stands. The otherwise peaceful gathering on March 15 came to an abrupt end when part of the crowd suddenly scattered in panic, triggering allegations that authorities used a sonic weapon against peaceful protesters – an accusation officials have denied.

Vucic, a former extreme nationalist, has become increasingly authoritarian since coming to power more than a decade ago. Though he formally says he wants Serbia to join the European Union, critics say Vucic has stifled democratic freedoms as he strengthened ties with Russia and China.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its second consecutive 1% gain on Tuesday. That’s three solid 1% advances so far in June. And with a few trading days remaining in the month, the index has recorded only one 1% decline so far.

A lot can still happen before the month ends, but, as it stands, June is looking a lot like May, which also saw three 1% gains and one 1% loss. Taken together, these months resemble May and June of last year, although back then the S&P 500 advanced 52 consecutive sessions without a single 1% decline.

What this means for you: After the volatility of March and April—and the sharp rebound in mid-April—there has been a notable shift toward a more consistent uptrend. We talk about this frequently, and it bears repeating: the characteristics of a steady uptrend are unmistakable. It’s the foundation of our analysis that shapes our market outlook.

FIGURE 1. THE NUMBER OF 1% MOVES IN THE S&P 500 IN 2024 AND 2025. June is looking similar to May, which also saw three 1% gains and one 1% loss. It’s echoing the behavior we saw in May and June of 2024.

It all starts with daily price action. Low two-way volatility has set the tone in recent weeks. If this type of month-to-month tempo in daily moves continues, the uptrend can persist. The opposite, of course, is also true.

Zooming In On the Short-Term Moves

Looking at the S&P 500’s recent price action on the short-term chart, the index is now approximately +3% from its recent low last Friday. If this multi-day bounce were to stop now, it would be among the smallest over the last nine months. Indeed, most didn’t get much further before the next bout of profit taking, but this shows how the staircase-like advance could continue.

In other words, if this cadence persists, the S&P 500 could meander through its former highs, i.e., we may not see a resounding breakout. The more boring a move through 6,147, the better.

FIGURE 2. TWO-HOUR CHART OF THE S&P 500. The staircase-like advance in $SPX could continue, and the index could tiptoe through previous highs.

Also, notice how the recent drawdown only pulled the 14-period relative strength index (RSI) on this two-hour chart marginally below the 50 level, which shows that the momentum shift was limited last week. It’s a reminder of how weak the bounce attempt was in March, which set the stage for the second down leg of that move. If the reverse is now true, then another up leg could be afoot soon.

NVDA Stock: A Daily Perspective

NVDA made a new all-time high on Wednesday, the first since January 7. Its participation since the April 7 low has been a major and necessary piece to the SMH, XLK, NDX, and SPX’s rallies, and the global equity market’s overall comeback. 

We last cited the stock on May 27 and May 29 (before and right after it reported earnings), noting the bull flag pattern. The flag has held throughout, and NVDA is now close to achieving that price target. So, what’s next?

FIGURE 3: DAILY CHART OF NVDA’S STOCK PRICE. After the bull flag pattern, NVDA is close to achieving its price target.

NVDA vs. 200-Day Moving Average

NVDA’s comeback has pulled the stock back above its 200-day moving average. We’ve shown this before as the stock was coming back. The last few times NVDA reclaimed the long-term line after spending a long time below it, the stock advanced higher for years.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF NVDA WITH 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE. The last few times NVDA broke above its 200-day moving average after spending a long time below it, the stock advanced higher for years.

NVDA Stock: A Weekly Perspective

Even though NVDA made a marginal new high in early January, there was no follow-through. Thus, NVDA remains net flat since November 2024 and isn’t too far above its spike highs from last June either.

Altogether, the round trip can now be viewed as one big bullish pattern. We’ve seen similar formations play out three times since the October low. Once NVDA finally got through those volatile periods and broke out, those strong extensions that we all remember well ensued. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns, but patterns tend to repeat no matter the timeframe. So, we need to respect that the same kind of breakout could happen again with the stock is sitting at the same levels as it was eight months ago, but with strong market-wide demand at its back.

FIGURE 5. WEEKLY CHART OF NVDA. Could a breakout with strong market-wide demand occur?

NVDA – GoNoGo

NVDA’s weekly trend just flipped to positive on the GoNoGo chart, as well. As is clear, the last time this happened was in early 2023, the same time that the first bullish pattern on the preceding chart happened.

FIGURE 6. NVDA’S PRICE ACTION USING GONOGO CHART. The weekly trend just switched to positive. This happened in 2023, which is around the time the first bullish pattern occurred in the weekly chart in Figure 5.

NVDA Stock: A Monthly Perspective

Zooming way out, this also could be the fourth major breakout from a monthly perspective. The prior ones happened in 2015, 2020, and 2023.

FIGURE 7. MONTHLY CHART OF NVDA. There could be a fourth major breakout in NVDA’s stock price.

The Bottom Line

If you’re someone who likes to stay invested with an eye on the long-term, this is the kind of environment where patience pays off. The S&P 500 appears to be building strength, and NVDA is helping lead the charge.


Chartists can improve their odds and increase the number of opportunities by trading short-term bullish setups within bigger uptrends. The first order of business is to identify the long-term trend using a trend-following indicator. Second, chartist can turn to more granular analysis to find short-term bullish setups. Today’s example will use the Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY).

***********************

, which has over a dozen reports. These cover the Zweig Breadth Thrust, trend-following signals, trailing stops and finding bullish setups. Check it out!

//////////////////////////////////////////////////

The bears are now left grasping at straws. What about tariffs? What about inflation? What about recession? What about the Fed? What about interest rates? What about the Middle East? What about the deficits? Blah, blah, blah.

When it comes to the media, you need to bury your head in the sand. Actually, take your head out of the sand and bury it in the charts. That’s where you’ll find the truth.

I said all-time highs were coming back at the April low and here we are. The S&P 500 has set a new all-time record high today and, barring a significant afternoon decline, will set its all-time closing high above the previous closing high of 6144, which was set on February 19, 2025. This new high comes just as we begin to prepare for Q2 earnings season. The run up to earnings season is generally and historically quite strong, so get ready for more highs ahead.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has produced annualized returns of nearly 27% during the period June 28th through July 17th. This annualized pre-earnings run is nearly triple the average S&P 500 annual return of 9% since 1950. Care to guess how the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have fared during this bullish pre-earnings period?

  • NASDAQ: +38.67%
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): +32.61% (bullish period ends July 15th for small caps)

Clearly, the bulls have the historical advantage for the next 3 weeks. Technically, evidence began turning in the bulls’ favor in mid-March, despite the last big move lower in early April. I have the research to back that up and will discuss it at an event on Saturday (more details below). While the stock market was rapidly declining in April, Wall Street was happily stealing everyone’s shares during the panicked selloff.

Technical Strength

Two of the most important industry groups to follow are semiconductors ($DJUSSC) and software ($DJUSSW). These two groups are among the most influential in terms of driving the S&P 500 higher. Check out both of these charts and be sure to check out both the absolute and relative strength currently.

Semiconductors:

Software:

Now I’m going to provide charts of these same two groups, but this time show you how positively they correlate to the S&P 500’s direction over the course of this century.

Semiconductors:

Software:

Honestly, you don’t need a PhD in Economics to understand the above charts. It’s really quite simple. When semiconductors and software are rallying to new highs and showing relative strength, BUY U.S. stocks! They both have extremely tight positive correlation with the S&P 500 and they both look very technically sound right now.

Interest Rate Cut

It’s coming and it’s coming fast! I’m now convinced that the Fed will cut the fed funds rate in a month at their next scheduled meeting on July 29-30. I’m not saying it because I feel the Fed should cut or needs to cut. I’m saying it because there’s a ton of buying right now in the 1-month treasury, sending its yield down. The 1-month treasury yield ($UST1M) typically begins to move BEFORE any Fed action occurs. We saw it back in August/September 2024, just prior to the 50 basis point cut at the September 2024 meeting:

The black directional lines in the bottom panel mark approximately the date that the Fed lowered the fed funds rate. The red directional lines in the top panel highlight the downward movement in the $UST1M PRIOR to the Fed’s lowering roughly a month later. Again, I’m not making this stuff up. The charts are telling me a story here and the current story is that rates are about to come down.

Checkmate bears.

Follow the charts, not the media!

The Game

I’m beginning to believe that capitulation is nothing more than a staged event for the Wall Street elite and we’re the panicked pawns running around with our hair on fire. Those days are over for EarningsBeats.com members. We saw this one coming, just like we saw it coming in 2022. Getting out at the top with the Wall Street elite and getting back in at the bottom before them is an excellent recipe for beating the S&P 500 by a mile!

Learning is the key. We focus on market research, guidance, and education at EarningsBeats.com. Those are our 3 pillars of business. Calling the 2025 market top wasn’t a coincidence. We’ve done it before and we’ll do it again. Jumping back in near the bottom was no coincidence either. Our signals are proven and they work.

On Saturday morning at 10:00am ET, we’re hosting a FREE educational event, “Trading the Truth: How Market Manipulation Creates Opportunity”. I’m going to show everyone the “play-by-play” of how we were able to move to cash BEFORE the market top and back into stocks NEAR the market bottom. Market tops form with many of the same signals each time. To learn more about this event and to register with your name and email address, CLICK HERE.

If you’ve struggled with all the uncertainty in 2025 and haven’t trusted stocks, it’s time that you change your process and strategies. I’ll see you on Saturday!

Happy trading!

Tom

If you’ve looked at enough charts over time, you start to recognize classic patterns that often appear. From head-and-shoulders tops to cup-and-handle patterns, they almost jump off the page when you bring up the chart. I would definitely include Fibonacci Retracements on that list, because before I ever bring up the Fibonacci tool on StockCharts, I’m pretty confident the levels are going to line up well with the price action.

Today, we’re going to look at a breakout name that shows why Fibonacci Retracements can be so valuable for confirming upside potential. We’ll also explain some best practices for identifying the most important price levels to use when setting up a Fibonacci framework. Finally, we’ll show how Fibonacci analysis could have helped you validate the current uptrend phase for the S&P 500 index.

Confirming Breakouts: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)

I started dropping quite a few Fibonacci Retracements on price charts soon after the April 7, 2025 market low. As stocks experienced a sudden and severe bounce off those lows, it became clear that we would need some way to validate a potential upside swing. That helped me zero in on the $20 level for Norwegian (NCLH), a level which was finally eclipsed this week.

Using the January high and the April low, we can see a 38.2% Fibonacci level come in right around $20. A gap higher in mid-May took NCLH close to that level, which was then retested again in early June. After bouncing off the 50-day moving average last week, Norwegian finally pushed above this first Fibonacci resistance level with Friday’s rally.

One of the ways we can differentiate between a “dead cat bounce” off a major low and the beginning of a much larger recovery phase is to key in on the first Fibonacci retracement level. If the price can push above this initial upside target, ideally on heavier than normal volume, then the chances of further upside are significantly increased.

In the case of NCLH, we can now bump up a price target to further Fibonacci levels. The 50% line, just below $20, lines up fairly well with the 200-day moving average. The 61.8% comes in right around $23.50, which represents my next upside target, assuming this week’s strength is confirmed by a follow-through day next week.

Identifying Pullbacks: Raytheon Technologies (RTX)

We can also use Fibonacci Retracements to identify downside targets after a major price peak. In the case of Raytheon Technologies (RTX), that means we use the April low and the high from mid-June to generate potential support levels.

In this case, we can see that the Fibonacci retracement levels line up very well with traditional support levels using the price action itself. The 38.2% level lines up with the mid-June low around $135, which also coordinates with the 50-day moving average. Beyond that support, the 50% level sits right at the late May low at $131, and the 61.8% level comes in right around the early May support at $126.

Given an initial pullback from the June peak around $149, I’m seeing strong potential support at the 38.2% level and 50-day moving average around $135. Now I can use Fibonacci levels to better define my risk vs. reward, showing how much downside action I’d anticipate while still keeping an eye on a return to the previous all-time highs.

Validating Uptrends: The S&P 500 Index ($SPX)

Sometimes Fibonacci Retracements are valuable in that they help validate that an uptrend is progressing with a decent pace. For the S&P 500 chart, every break of a Fibonacci resistance level has confirmed the strength of the broad market indexes off the April low.

It took only two sessions for the SPX to break above the 38.2% retracement of the February to April downtrend phase. In fact, the S&P almost reached the 50% level before pulling back to around 5100 in mid-April. From there, we can see a gap back above the 38.2% level, which helped confirm the strength of the new uptrend phase.

I still have the pink trendline on my chart that I remember drawing during the downtrend phase. “As long as the S&P remains below trendline resistance, the market is in a clear downtrend,” I remember saying out loud on my market recap show. So when the SPX broke above the 50% level, as well as that clear trendline, I was forced to acknowledge the staying power of this new uptrend phase.

The S&P 500 stalled out at the 61.8% retracement level in early May, but another price gap higher signaled that the final Fibonacci resistance level was no longer going to hold. And once you eclipse the final Fibonacci level, that implies a full retest back to the 100% point.

So am I surprised that the S&P 500 has pushed to new all-time highs this week? Absolutely not. Indeed, using Fibonacci Retracements on charts like this have helped me admit when a new uptrend is showing strength, and provide plenty of reminders to follow the trend until proven otherwise!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!


David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

As we head into the second half of 2025, here are three stocks that present strong technical setups with favorable risk/reward profiles. One is the largest market cap stock we’re familiar with, which bodes well for the market in general. The second is an old tech giant that’s making a comeback. The third is a beaten-down S&P 500 name that may be ready to rally.

Let’s dive into these three stocks.

NVIDIA (NVDA) is Leading the Market

Nvidia (NVDA) shares have finally broken out and closed above $150, a level we’ve been closely watching. With price action above that resistance threshold, NVDA’s stock price has room to run.

DeepSeek and tariff concerns seem to be in the rearview mirror. The fundamental positives are continued earnings growth, continued large tech cap-ex spend, and, more recently, Jensen Huang’s unveiling of a cute robot he feels could be the next big thing.

Technically, this move has legs, and we have the patterns and history to show for it. The risk/reward set-up is now quite favorable. Let’s break it down.

Over the last five years, there have been periods of consolidation (green boxes) and then significant breakouts to the upside. In all cases, shares became overbought according to the relative strength index (RSI). But overbought doesn’t mean NVDA’s stock price will reverse. During uptrends, overbought conditions can last for quite some time, as they did after the prior two significant breakouts.

With the official breakout above $150 and RSI again reading over 70, history suggests an extended rally is in the cards. A gain of 25–30% from current levels and a run to $200 is likely.

The downside risk is to the $150 level, from which shares just broke out. If this move is just a head fake, then use that level as a stop to limit your losses. This risk/reward set-up is why we believe this is one to own for the back half of 2025.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) Finds New Life

Old-timers like me may remember what a high flyer Cisco Systems (CSCO) once was. It’s been a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) since June 2009, and shares have struggled to sustain any upward momentum until lately.

Fundamentally, the company continued to grow through acquisition. Now, those deals are starting to help their bottom line, namely the $28 billion acquisition of Splunk that closed in 2024. 

Technically — and that’s what we care about on the StockCharts platform — we can have some fun.

Below is a 30-year chart going back to the dot-com boom. Cisco was one of Wall Street’s darlings and climbed astronomically before falling from the skies. It has struggled to revisit those levels, but that could change soon. 

Switching to a smaller time frame — a three-year weekly chart (see below) — we are seeing great set-ups as we head into the back half of 2025.

CSCO’s stock price consolidated between $43 and $55 for 15 months and broke out in late 2024. Shares rallied and then pulled back to old resistance (now support) at $55 and began their climb back.

Now shares are breaking out again. An upside target of $82, the all-time high set back during the dot-com era, is within reach and may just get there by year-end. The risk/reward seems favorable and, given the run in tech and cyber stocks which CSCO represents, the momentum is there to reach those highs.

Generac’s Power Play

Welcome to hurricane season! It lasts from June 1st to November 30. Generac (GNRC), a leader in home backup power, tends to perform well during weather extremes. It isn’t always the primary catalyst for rallies over the long term in the stock, but it can spur short-term rallies.

Last week, as much of the country was in the middle of a heat wave, GNRC had the best week of gains since November 2024, rallying nearly 12%. The trend change seems to be underway. Shares are lower by -8.1% year-to-date, and there’s room to run.

However, the charts are showing signs of life. Let’s keep this one as simple as possible.

The stock broke its longer-term downtrend (red line)

Shares have made a consistent set of higher lows (green uptrend)

Shares recaptured their 50-day moving average

Shares consolidated in an ascending triangle and broke out

Shares tested and failed to recapture their 200-day moving average

Progress is being made. The trend has changed, there’s something to reverse, and seasonal factors and reduced tariff concerns are a true tailwind.

Shares could easily pull back — a flag, if you will — to the $135 area, but should be a great entry point from a risk/reward perspective. Overall, shares are poised to continue reversing that longer-term downtrend, and could be a good addition to the portfolio for the end of 2025.

The Bottom Line

Each of these stocks offers a viable investment strategy with favorable risk-to-reward ratios. If you’re going to enter a position, use clearly-defined stop levels to manage your risks.