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MILWAUKEE — Donald Trump’s running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, recounted his hardscrabble Ohio upbringing and his post-Sept. 11 military service as he introduced himself and his young family to the nation at the Republican National Convention here Wednesday night.

Unfurling the tale of a boy who grew up in poverty in southwest Ohio with an absent father and a drug-addicted mother — a boy who is now a 39-year-old man nominated to become the next vice president — Vance offered an up-from-the-bootstraps story that the Trump-Vance ticket hopes will resonate with working-class and rural America.

Vance spoke of being raised in Middletown, Ohio, midway between Cincinnati and Dayton — “a small town where people spoke their minds, built with their hands, and loved their God, their family, their community and their country with their whole hearts” — but also a town “cast aside” by the ruling class in Washington.

There, while his own mother struggled with addiction, Vance said he was raised by “Mamaw” — “the name we hillbillies gave to our grandmothers” — who he described as “an old woman who could barely walk but she was tough as nails.” The account was familiar to readers of Vance’s 2016 best-selling memoir, “Hillbilly Elegy.”

Taking the stage to the twangy strains of Merle Haggard’s “America First,” Vance offered voters a narrative through-line about how the lessons he learned with Mamaw in greater Appalachia shaped his populist and isolationist worldview, from his and Trump’s restrictionist trade policies and skepticism of overseas entanglements to their shared hard-line immigration stance and concerns about the scourge of fentanyl in communities across America.

“President Trump represents America’s last best hope to restore what — if lost — may never be found again,” Vance said, saying he and Trump were fighting for people like “the autoworker in Michigan, wondering why out-of-touch politicians are destroying their jobs” and “the factory worker in Wisconsin who makes things with their hands and is proud of American craftsmanship.”

“And our movement is about single moms like mine, who struggled with money and addiction but never gave up,” Vance said, gesturing to his mom who raised both hands to her lips before holding them back out to her son.

“And I am proud to say that tonight my mom is here, 10 years clean and sober,” Vance said in an emotional moment that prompted a standing ovation. “I love you, Mom.”

“J.D.’s mom! J.D.’s mom! J.D.’s mom!” the crowd chanted.

Vance was introduced by his wife, Usha Vance, who was met with a polite but somewhat subdued response, including audible gasps when she described how her husband, a “meat and potatoes” guy, came to embrace her vegetarianism.

President Biden, meanwhile, tested positive for the coronavirus following a campaign event in Las Vegas and planned to return to his home in Rehoboth Beach, Del., to self-isolate, a White House spokesperson said in a statement.

On a night when the theme was “Make America Strong Once Again,” Vance headlined the convention along with several other hard-right firebrands, including Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), former acting national intelligence director Ric Grenell, former Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro and Trump’s oldest son, Donald Trump Jr.

Extolling Trump’s bearded No. 2 pick Wednesday, Gaetz said that “J.D. looks like a young Abraham Lincoln” but noted that, like former president Ulysses S. Grant, Vance also hails from Ohio “and like General Grant, J.D. Vance knows how to fight.”

“So they can run Biden from the nursing home,” Gaetz said, finishing his speech and building to his crescendo: “We are on a mission to rescue and save this country. And we ride or die with Donald John Trump to the end.”

Trump Jr. and his cadre of loyalists were instrumental in pushing Vance as Trump’s No. 2, a decision that the former president did not finalize until the final 24 hours before the announcement Monday. Navarro, meanwhile, traveled to Wisconsin on Wednesday from Florida, where he was released from federal prison in Miami after serving a four-month sentence for ignoring a congressional subpoena.

Taking the stage, Navarro immediately referred to his prison time, faulting “Joe Biden and his Department of Injustice,” before recounting a favored Trump message: that the former president is merely a martyr, fighting against nefarious forces on behalf of his flock.

“If they can come for me, and if they can come for Donald Trump, be careful,” Navarro said. “They will come for you.”

Parts of the evening, especially those focused on undocumented immigrants — who Trump Jr.’s fiancé, Kimberly Guilfoyle, described as “violent criminal aliens” — were laced with dark imagery.

Thomas Homan, the former acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, accused Biden and Vice President Harris of unraveling Trump’s hard-line immigration policies.

“Biden is the first president in American history to come into office and unsecure a border. Who the hell does that?” Homan said, later adding that Biden and Harris were making a deliberate choice that he described as “national suicide.”

Arizona ranchers Jim and Sue Chilton took the stage moments later, with Jim Chilton offering his “beautiful wife” a kiss on the side of her head. But he quickly turned ominous as well, alleging that since Biden has been president, the hidden cameras on their ranch have recorded more than 3,500 “drug packers” and other undocumented immigrants crossing through their stead.

“These are not asylum seekers,” he said. “It looks like and it feels like an invasion, because it is.”

Illegal crossings at the southern border have soared to record highs under Biden, though in recent months, his administration has launched a broad crackdown that has pushed the numbers back down to Trump-era levels. The Trump administration also faced spikes and record numbers of families crossing the border in 2019. Trump also helped kill a $118 billion border security bill spearheaded by Democrats because he said he didn’t want Biden to have an election-year policy win.

The heated rhetoric onstage could also be found offstage as well, at least in moments. A group of Republican senators followed Kimberly Cheatle, the director of the Secret Service, through the Fiserv Forum on Wednesday evening, shouting questions at her about the assassination attempt against Trump.

“This was an assassination attempt!” yelled Sen. Marsha Blackburn (Tenn.), who was accompanied by Sen. John Barrasso (Wyo.). “You owe the people answers! You owe President Trump answers!”

The confrontation lasted at least 30 seconds, according to onlookers, as the senators chased her and she moved away from them without speaking.

In another one of the evening’s most emotional moments, several Gold Star family members spoke movingly of the family members they lost in combat, blaming Biden for the “disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan” in 2021 and accusing him of not sufficiently remembering their loved ones.

One couple, Herman and Alicia Lopez, spoke of their 22-year-old son, Cpl. Hunter Lopez, who died during the Afghanistan withdrawal. Biden, they said, met the plane carrying the 13 U.S. service members killed in a single day when an explosion went off during the chaotic withdrawal but turned the focus to his late son, Beau, who died of cancer.

“Worse than that, he has never said their names out loud,” Herman Lopez continued, before reading the names of the 13 service members who died that day in August.

The tableau offered a marked departure from eight years ago, when Trump in 2016 found himself feuding with Gold Star parents Khizr and Ghazala Khan, who spoke on the final day of the Democratic convention. And Trump has not been without his own controversies involving the military; the Atlantic magazine reported that the former president described Americans who have died in war as “suckers” and “losers.”

“President Biden cares deeply about our service members, their families, and the immense sacrifices they have made,” National Security spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said in a statement. “That’s why the president attended the dignified transfer of the 13 brave service members who lost their lives in Afghanistan on Aug. 26, 2021; as well as, of the three who lost their lives in Jordan earlier this year. As he said then and continues to believe now: Our country owes them a great deal of gratitude and a debt that we can never repay, and we will continue to honor their ultimate sacrifice.”

In many ways, Vance is the most ideologically and stylistically similar to Trump of the three men ultimately considered for vice president, and it is unclear whether he will help Trump dramatically expand the electoral map.

He could, however, arguably help the former president fortify his support in Pennsylvania, one of the three “Blue Wall” states — which includes Michigan and Wisconsin — that Democrats now largely believe are Biden’s only path to keeping the White House.

In 2020, Biden lost White men by between 17 and 23 percentage points, according to national exit polls and comparable surveys. But the Trump campaign is still working to increase Trump’s support among this demographic; in a July Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll, 54 percent of White men supported Trump to 38 percent for Biden, a 16-point margin.

Trump aides hope Vance could help shore up support from White men, and are expected to deploy him across the country in working-class and rural areas similar to where he grew up.

Marc Short, the chief of staff to former vice president Mike Pence, said Trump’s choice of Vance as his No. 2 reflects the former president’s confidence in the electoral map.

“There’s no added math there — it’s more of a mini-me,” Short said. “But I also think the selection of Vance clearly shows the party has fully embraced the populist approach now.”

Vance was not always a Trump supporter. In 2016, he described Trump as either a “cynical asshole” or “America’s Hitler” in a text message to a former law school classmate, and in an essay for the Atlantic magazine the same year, he called Trump “cultural heroin.” In an updated 2018 version of his memoir, he revealed that he did not vote for Trump in 2016, instead opting for a third-party candidate.

But he has said he voted for Trump in 2020, and as he sought the Senate seat, Vance quickly modulated his public and private comments about Trump, seeking out his oldest son as an ally and becoming one of the former president’s staunchest defenders.

Keynoting the Republican convention Wednesday night, Vance made clear he knew who had selected him — and to whom he owed his fealty. He began his remarks focused on Trump, describing him as a man who “chose to endure abuse, slander, and persecution” while running for return to the White House, all “because he loves this country.”

Vance reminded the crowd of the “would-be assassin coming a quarter of an inch from taking his life,” stressing that just two days later, “Trump flew to Milwaukee and got back to work.”

“Our once and future president of the United States of America,” Vance extolled, before only then turning to his personal story.

Leigh Ann Caldwell, Josh Dawsey and Maeve Reston in Milwaukee contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on The Washington Post

MILWAUKEE — Welcome to The Campaign Moment. This week, we’ll be with you every night through Thursday, running through the big moments and trends from the Republican National Convention.

(Did a friend forward this to you, or are you seeing this on the website? If so, sign up for this newsletter here. And make sure to check out the Campaign Moment podcast.)

The big moment

Night 3 of the 2024 GOP convention introduced the nation to perhaps the least-well-known presidential running mate since Sarah Palin in 2008, first-term Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), who delivered the keynote address.

Vance’s big entree came even as the Democratic ticket remained unsettled, with increasing pressure on President Biden to bow out and Biden’s sudden disclosure of a coronavirus diagnosis Wednesday afternoon.

Here’s what we took away.

1. Vance’s speech sent a signal to the GOP of old

There were two big questions with Vance’s speech.

One was how would a guy whose 2022 Ohio Senate campaign wasn’t exactly a popular success play, in his big introduction?

And the second was how would he address tensions between his own politics and where his party has stood for years — specifically his isolationist foreign policy and anti-corporate populism? Some traditional conservatives blanched at his selection, which seemed to signal a real shift in where the party is headed.

On the first count, Vance delivered a capable if not exactly rousing speech. At moments, he betrayed his youth at just 39 years old, and he seemed overeager. His references to his humble beginnings played well. An especially strong moment came when he introduced his mother, whose drug problems featured significantly in his book, “Hillbilly Elegy.” Vance said she was about 10 years sober now.

As for the tensions between his policies and others in his party: Vance tried to play it off as healthy disagreement, but he also sent a subtly defiant signal to those he disagrees with.

“We have a big tent in this party on everything from national security to economic policy,” he said. “But my message to you, my fellow Republicans, is we love this country and we are united to win.”

Vance then preceded to highlight two conspicuous issues: opposition to NAFTA and the Iraq War.

“Somehow a real estate developer from New York City by the name of Donald J. Trump was right on all of these issues,” Vance said, “while Biden was wrong.”

Trump actually seemed to initially support the Iraq War, despite his frequent claims.

But that aside, it is also important to note that both of these policies initially got more Republican support than Democratic support. It was almost as if it was a concerted — if seemingly magnanimous — attempt to shove aside the GOP of old.

Later in the speech, Vance was more direct.

“We need a leader who is not in the pocket of big business but answers to the working man, union and nonunion alike,” he said, “a leader who won’t sell out to multinational corporations but will stand up for American companies and American industry.”

He added: “We’re done, ladies and gentlemen, catering to Wall Street. We’ll commit to the working man.”

Those comments weren’t specifically about his party. But they might as well have been. (The message was also at odds with how Trump often pitches his own policies to wealthy donors.)

These were the kind of comments that Republicans of the past might have seen at Democratic conventions and viewed as demagogic. Including them despite the pushback on Vance from the right was certainly a choice.

(To listen to the latest Campaign Moment podcast, click here.)

2. Gold Star families emotionally went to bat for Trump on Afghanistan

A big focal point Wednesday night was the chaotic 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal, as Republicans sought to highlight a low point of Biden’s presidency.

The convention played a video of family members of 6 of the 13 U.S. soldiers killed, and some of them spoke afterward as others stood onstage.

“Joe Biden said the withdrawal from Afghanistan was an extraordinary success,” said Cheryl Juels, the aunt of Marine Corps Sgt. Nicole Gee. “Look at our faces. Look at our pain and our heartbreak. And look at our rage. That was not an extraordinary success. The humiliation of our nation was not an extraordinary success.”

It was an emotional moment. And this is a significant liability for Biden. His approval rating was declining somewhat before the withdrawal, but it went underwater almost immediately afterward and has never recovered. The period marked the most precipitous decline in his image ratings to date.

The featuring of the Gold Star families was also a notable reversal from the 2016 campaign season, when Trump actually attacked Gold Star parents who appeared onstage at the Democratic National Convention. Trump questioned whether the mother remained silent beside her husband because she was a Muslim. He also suggested the father was controlled by Hillary Clinton’s campaign. A number of Gold Star parents strongly criticized him.

Some Gold Star families have also criticized Trump for his reported comments dismissive of the sacrifice of slain soldiers.

3. Vice President Harris was a big focal point

With major questions about whether Biden will continue to lead his ticket, Republicans proceeded to focus more on the potential Democratic nominee-in-waiting, Vice President Harris.

She was invoked repeatedly early in Wednesday’s program — often alongside Biden, but perhaps tellingly, often in her own right.

Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Tex.) claimed the “greatest blame” for obscuring Biden’s condition lies with Harris: “She has put party above country, and she is as unfit in character as Joe Biden is in body and mind.”

Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.) linked Harris to the Afghanistan withdrawal, saying neither Biden nor she “deserves to be saluted as commander in chief or to sit in the Oval Office.”

The mayor of East Palestine, Ohio, blamed Harris for not reaching out after a major train derailment there.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) cited Harris as being the face of Biden’s border policy, saying, “Kamala Harris isn’t able to do any job.”

Gaetz added: “So they can run Biden from the nursing home, Harris, George Clooney, Robert De Niro, whoever they want to run. We are on a mission to rescue and save this country.”

4. ‘Law and order,’ meet Trump’s convicted allies

A big theme Tuesday night was the rule of law and “law and order.” But for the second straight night Wednesday, we got a taste for how selective that emphasis is.

Among those present were four convicted criminals aligned with Trump: former campaign chairman Paul Manafort, longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone, Trump-endorsing former Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich (D) and former Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro. Manafort, Stone and Blagojevich, each granted clemency by Trump in 2020, were sentenced to a combined quarter-century’s worth of prison; Navarro got out of prison earlier Wednesday after serving four months for contempt of Congress.

Navarro was given the stage for a surprisingly long speech, in which he told the crowd, “In Trump’s America, you didn’t have to worry about being locked up for disagreeing with the government. I went to prison so you won’t have to.”

Navarro was convicted after refusing to comply with a subpoena from the Jan. 6 committee. While the subtext of his speech was that he was politically targeted, the judge in the case assured him earlier this year, “Let’s make clear, Dr. Navarro: You are not a victim of a political prosecution. … These are circumstances of your own making.”

Navarro claimed in his trial that Trump had asserted executive privilege over his testimony while he was president, but Navarro never provided direct evidence of that. And Trump advisers and attorneys didn’t vouch for that claim.

On Thursday, of course, a felon named Donald Trump will accept the GOP nomination.

Take a moment to read:

“Jeffries, Schumer privately warned Biden he could imperil Democrats” (Washington Post)“Secret Service was told police could not watch building used by Trump rally shooter” (Washington Post)“Vance urged DOJ to enforce Comstock Act, crack down on abortion pills” (Washington Post)“Where J.D. Vance stands on key issues: Abortion, guns, Ukraine and more” (Washington Post)“DNC sticks with Biden virtual roll call, despite doubts that it’s necessary” (Washington Post)“How has Trump transformed the Republican Party? Look at the platforms.” (Politico)

This post appeared first on The Washington Post

GOP vice-presidential nominee J.D. Vance was the headliner on the third night of the GOP convention, which featured a number of misleading or inaccurate statements. Here are nine claims that caught our attention, in the order in which they were made. As is our practice, we do not award Pinocchios for a roundup of statements made during convention events.

“Your favorite Democrat, Nancy Pelosi, created your favorite committee, the sham January 6th committee, Which demanded that I violate executive privilege. What did I do? I refused.”

— Peter Navarro, former White House director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy

Navarro spoke at the convention on the same day he completed a four-month prison sentence for defying a congressional subpoena. The Jan. 6 committee had issued him a subpoena to testify about his involvement in efforts to delay the certification of the electoral college vote in the 2020 election. But Navarro never showed up to testify or produce documents. The House, controlled by Democrats, voted to recommend he be charged with contempt of Congress.

Navarro claimed that his testimony was protected by executive privilege, but a federal judge ruled that there was no evidence that former president Donald Trump had formally invoked the privilege. (Executive privilege is meant to protect the confidentiality of discussions between the president and his close aides.) Navarro produced nothing in writing from Trump, nor did Trump publicly corroborate his account. Even if executive privilege did apply, Navarro was prosecuted for refusing to appear, not for refusing to answer questions.

By contrast, the U.S. attorney’s office opted not to take legal action against two other Trump officials who were referred for contempt prosecutions — former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows and communications chief Dan Scavino. Both had received letters from a lawyer for the former president directing them not to respond to subpoenas from the committee, citing executive privilege. The judge in the case said the record would look different if Navarro could produce a similar letter.

“Jack Smith indicted and prosecuted me for criminal contempt of Congress.”

— Navarro

Special counsel Jack Smith, who has filed two criminal cases against Trump, did not prosecute Navarro. The case was filed by U.S. Attorney Matthew M. Graves of D.C.

“President Trump handed Biden a booming economy and a strong nation. All Joe had to do was leave it alone and take a nap.”

— Kimberly Guilfoyle, fiancée of Donald Trump Jr.

The economy was not booming in January 2021. When Biden became president, the United States was in an economic crisis because of the coronavirus pandemic. The unemployment rate was 6.4 percent, and the administration pushed through an economic recovery plan in its first months in office.

While the Trump administration helped foster the creation of the coronavirus vaccine, it had not left behind much of a national strategy beyond vaccinating health-care workers and people living in long-term care facilities, all of whom were at fixed sites where they could receive vaccines. Trump more than 20 times promised that 100 million doses of vaccine would be delivered by the end of 2020 — a goal his administration badly failed to meet.

The Biden administration came up with ways to provide states with resources to deliver vaccines — which Trump had resisted — and to prevent states from hoarding doses.

Biden’s job record in his first three years also tops Trump’s performance. In the first three years of Trump’s term, about 6.5 million jobs were created — less than half the number created under Biden in the same time period. The number of jobs is now 6.2 million higher than the peak under Trump in February 2020, before the pandemic struck the economy.

“He deterred Russia. You know what he told Putin? You try anything and I’ll take the tops off the Kremlin.”

— Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.)

Waltz is repeating an unconfirmed report — which came from Trump himself, in a conversation recorded on speaker phone with golf pro John Daly in March 2022.

Trump told Daly that Russian President Vladimir Putin “was a friend of mine” and “I got along great with him.”

But he insisted that he said that if Putin invaded Ukraine, “we’re going to hit Moscow.” Trump said: “He sort of believed me, like 5 percent, 10 percent,” adding, “That’s all you need. He never did it during my time, John, you know … He didn’t do this during the last four years because he knew he couldn’t.”

Trump has a long history of inaccurately recounting conversations. The day before Putin’s invasion in February 2022, he called Putin a “genius” and “very savvy.”

“You got to say, that’s pretty savvy,” Trump said on a conservative talk radio show of Putin’s decision to declare certain breakaway regions in Ukraine as independent. “And you know what the response was from Biden? There was no response. They didn’t have one for that. No, it’s very sad. Very sad.” “This is genius,” Trump said. “Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine … Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful.”

Trump also sided with Putin over the U.S. intelligence community in a news conference in Helsinki in 2018, saying he did not believe Russia tried to intervene in the 2016 election. Trump often resisted congressional efforts to sanction Russia and led a charge to weaken NATO and the European Union — two important goals of Putin’s. He has suggested that he might pull the United States out of NATO if he’s elected to a second term.

“Joe Biden advised against the mission that killed Osama bin Laden.”

— former congressman Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.)

The main piece of evidence for this claim is a newspaper headline that The Fact Checker concluded was based on a misinterpretation of what Barack Obama said. The headline, over a brief article in USA Today in 2012, said: “Obama notes that Biden opposed Bin Laden raid.”

The article was about the 2012 debate between Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney. The article says Obama was discussing the 2011 raid on bin Laden’s compound. But the transcript makes clear that Obama talking about criticism he received during his 2008 run, from both Romney and Biden (both presidential candidates at the time), for saying he would go after bin Laden even if the Pakistani government was unwilling to help.

It is certainly correct that memories of other participants in the White House debate over the bin Laden raid placed Biden in the skeptical camp. Most accounts say that Biden believed more work needed to be done before a raid was launched, such as one more pass with a drone to make certain. That’s different from being against the mission.

Biden has given various accounts of a private conversation he claims he had with Obama after advisers met on the raid — saying he told Obama “go with your gut” or “follow your instincts.”

Obama’s memoir describes the Situation Room debate as others have, saying he appreciated Biden’s willingness to offer a contrary viewpoint, but he makes no mention of this supposed conversation with Biden afterward.

“Pro-crime district attorneys have turned our cities into giant crime zones.”

— Donald Trump Jr.

Violent crime rates, especially for homicide in large cities, have fallen sharply during Biden’s presidency, after a surge during the pandemic. The violent crime rate is believed to be near its lowest level in 50 years.

“A career politician by the name of Joe Biden supported NAFTA, a bad trade deal that sent countless good jobs to Mexico.”

— GOP vice-presidential nominee J.D. Vance

The nonpartisan Congressional Research Service in 2017 concluded that the “net overall effect of the North American Free Trade Agreement on the U.S. economy appears to have been relatively modest, primarily because trade with Canada and Mexico accounts for a small percentage of U.S. GDP,” though it noted that “there were worker and firm adjustment costs as the three countries adjusted to more open trade and investment among their economies.”

Vance attacks Biden for supporting NAFTA but it was negotiated by President George H.W. Bush and supported more by Republican lawmakers than Democrats.

“When I was a senior in high school, that same Joe Biden supported the disastrous invasion of Iraq. … Somehow a real estate developer from New York City by the name of Donald J. Trump was right [on the war].”

— Vance

Biden supported the Iraq War, but Vance — who served in Iraq as a Marine — repeats a signature Trump lie that Trump did not. We searched high and low, as did other reporters, and there is no evidence Trump was an opponent of the March 2003 invasion of Iraq, let alone a vocal one. In fact, he offered lukewarm support. When Howard Stern asked if he supported invading Iraq, Trump replied, “Yeah, I guess so. You know, I wish the first time it was done correctly.” In another interview on Fox News, two months before the invasion, he said Bush had to make a decision: “Either you attack or you don’t attack.” Shortly after the invasion, he again told Fox News: “It looks like a tremendous success from a military standpoint.” Not until August 2004, in an interview with Esquire, did Trump publicly express opposition to the war. By then — 17 months after the invasion — many Americans had turned against the war, making Trump’s position not particularly surprising.

“We will make sure our allies share in the burden of securing world peace. No more free rides for nations that betray the generosity of the American taxpayer.”

— Vance

This is a broad statement but it appears to refer to burden sharing in the war in Ukraine as well as NATO funding, two issues that Trump has complained about.

As of April 30, European aid to Ukraine far exceeded U.S. aid, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. European nations have allocated $111 billion, compared to $81 billion for the United States. Europe has also pledged an additional $83 billion, which has not been allocated, compared to $27 billion for the United States. As a percentage of the economy, the U.S. percentage ranks much lower than 21 other countries, Kiel estimates.

It’s also important to remember that military aid to foreign countries benefits Americans. The package of aid that passed Congress this year — not included in the numbers above — was estimated to cost $95.25 billion, including $60 billion for Ukraine. But information provided by the White House budget office and a detailed review of the bill showed that nearly 80 percent went either to weapons manufacturers in the United States to replenish stocks or supply weapons or to fund Defense Department operations in the United States and overseas (including the training of Ukrainian soldiers). Nearly $57 billion — about 60 percent — is never leaving the United States. Instead, these funds are being invested with weapons manufacturers located in dozens of states. Only about $8 billion of this amount is reserved to assist the Ukrainian government, including $50 million to address food shortages.

So far, according to the Pentagon, manufacturers in all but 11 states have received Ukraine-related weapons contracts.

As for NATO, since 2014, members have committed to spend at least two percent of their gross domestic product on defense. In 2024, 23 members are expected to meet or exceed the target, compared to only three members in 2014, NATO says.

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This post appeared first on The Washington Post

Kellyanne Conway, who headed Donald Trump’s first campaign and served in the White House as a senior adviser, gave a shout-out to Melania Trump in a Wednesday night speech at the Republican National Convention, describing her as his “extraordinary, elegant, beautiful, brilliant wife.”

But the former first lady was still notably absent from the convention in Milwaukee on Day 3.

She will appear at the convention at some point, the former president’s son Eric said in an interview with CBS, along with Trump’s daughter Ivanka. “They’re coming in and in full force and effect, so they’ll certainly be here,” he said. “Ivanka’s been an incredible supporter of my father … and obviously Melania, as well.”

Neither is on the list of announced convention headliners and keynote speakers.

Her absence from the list of speakers is a notable break from a decades-long tradition in which the wives of Republican presidential nominees deliver remarks at the convention.

She delivered remarks at the 2016 and 2020 Republican conventions, but she has largely abstained from participating in political events since leaving the White House and has not attended any of her husband’s campaign rallies in recent months.

After the attempted assassination of the former president, Melania Trump on Sunday released a lengthy statement expressing sympathy for the victims of the shooting and thanking those bridging the political divide by “remembering that every single politician is a man or a woman with a loving family.” She also wrote that when she saw the shooting Saturday, she realized her life and the life of their son, Barron, “were on the brink of devastating change.”

There have been some exceptions for public appearances at political events, including attending a few fundraisers in April, but the former first lady did not attend Trump’s first presidential debate against President Biden last month. She also wasn’t at any of the court proceedings in her husband’s hush money trial in New York, nor was she seen in public with Trump after a jury found him guilty on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records.

Several Trump family members have delivered remarks at the convention: Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr.; his granddaughter Kai Trump; his daughter-in-law Lara Trump, a Republican National Committee co-chair; and Kimberly Guilfoyle, Donald Trump Jr.’s fiancée. Trump’s daughter Tiffany Trump and her husband, Michael Boulos, were seated with the family, but neither was scheduled to speak.

Ivanka Trump said in 2022 that she would support her father outside the political arena moving forward. She still plans to attend the 2024 convention for her father’s Thursday night speech, but she will not participate in the convention in any political role, according to a person familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share private discussions.

Barron Trump, 18, is also not scheduled to speak.

Patrick Svitek, Josh Dawsey and Marianne LeVine contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on The Washington Post

Iran on Wednesday denied any involvement in the recent assassination attempt on former president Donald Trump at a Pennsylvania rally, while also rejecting allegations that it had any “intention for such an action.”

The Washington Post reported Tuesday that the Biden administration had informed the Secret Service of an unspecified threat to Trump from Iran before the July 13 campaign rally. U.S. officials said they believe the attack on the rally, where one attendee was killed and two were critically injured, and where Trump said he was shot in the ear, was unrelated to any Iranian effort.

In a statement, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said Iran “strongly rejects any involvement in the recent armed attack on Trump or claims about Iran’s intention for such an action, considering such allegations to have malicious political motives and objectives.”

U.S. intelligence officials have warned that Iran may seek to avenge the death of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani, who was killed in 2020 in a U.S. drone strike authorized by Trump. The military action, Trump said after the strike, was intended to “stop a war. We did not take action to start a war.” Earlier in 2018, Trump had withdrawn from the Iran nuclear deal, imposing sanctions that debilitated the country’s economy.

In a statement to the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) on Wednesday, Iran’s U.N. mission described Trump as a “criminal” who deserved to be prosecuted for Soleimani’s killing. “Iran has chosen the legal path to bring him to justice,” the statement said. In January, the Tehran Times reported that Iran was planning to petition the International Court of Justice over Soleimani’s assassination.

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“As we have said many times, we have been tracking Iranian threats against former Trump administration officials for years, dating back to the last administration,” U.S. National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said Tuesday.

She added, “We consider this a national and homeland security matter of the highest priority.”

The Secret Service enhanced its protections for Trump in light of the Iran-related threat alert, said a national security official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss security decisions. CNN first reported that the United States had “intelligence from a human source” about an Iranian plot to assassinate Trump.

Authorities are still searching for clues as to why 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks of Bethel Park, Pa., opened fire at the rally on Saturday.

This post appeared first on The Washington Post

It was a very interesting week indeed. All-time high records continued to fall on a daily basis, but the complexion of the market most definitely changed during the latter part of the week. First, I want to pull up an hourly RRG chart to track 10 key growth stocks, most of which have carried the overall S&P 500 higher throughout 2024:

This chart is tracking the relative rotation of these 10 growth stocks (vs. the benchmark S&P 500) over the last 20 periods, or roughly 3 days. Many of these stocks started their 3-day journey on the right side of this chart, which highlights tremendous relative strength at that time. But look where they finished on Friday. Not one of these 10 stocks finished in the leading quadrant. Not one. AAPL held up best, but TSLA, META, and COST tumbled to close out the week. That type of behavior among these growth juggernauts would likely send you to the conclusion that we had 3 really bad days in the market. Instead, look at how the S&P 500 performed over the past 3 days from this hourly chart:

So what happened? How did the S&P 500 hold up when its most-heavily-weighted stocks fell so quickly?

Rotation. Bullish rotation. This is what sustains bull markets. Even the biggest and best leaders fall from time to time. But does the money leave the stock market or does it simply rotate and drive prices higher elsewhere. Well, last week it was the latter. Let’s check out large-cap growth (IWF) and large-cap value (IWD) and then the 11 sectors on that same 20-period RRG chart:

IWF:IWD

Sectors

In this case, two pictures say two thousand words.

Could the relative performance of the IWF and IWD have shown more disparity over the past few days than they did? Growth was tossed out the window, while traders suddenly fell in love with value stocks. I believe the June CPI report was the primary trigger for this rotation. I viewed it as a “sell on news” for growth stocks after months of “buying on rumor”. I also view it as “warning shots fired” towards Fed Chief Powell and his band of hawks. This report was an absolute DAGGER for those Fed officials that believe we should remain on the current “higher rates for longer” bandwagon. Check out the latest chart on core inflation at the consumer level:

The 1-month and 12-month rate of change (ROC) have rapidly declined. I swear I think the Fed is looking at a different chart, or maybe someone needs to turn their computers right side up. They’ve made it clear that they want sustainability towards their 2% target level. It sure seems to me that monthly Core CPI is back in the normal range and has been moving sustainably towards 2% for at least the last year. Yet the Fed keeps waiting, even talking about the possibility of another hike. Personally, I’m sick of this Fed. As I said, warning shots have been fired over the past few weeks. The bond market is SCREAMING at the Fed to lower rates. And growth stocks have just had their second bout of significant selling. We’re teetering folks.

I’ve been steadfastly bullish throughout this secular bull market, suggesting to everyone to avoid all the noise about crashes and collapses. I am, however, growing worried about the Fed’s handling of monetary policy. There are already economic signals that are telling me the cracks in our economic foundation are growing and spreading and that hopes of a “soft landing” are dwindling. If this isn’t stopped SOON, it’ll be too late, and we could be staring at a SIGNIFICANT market meltdown in the weeks and months ahead.

On Saturday, July 27th at 10:00am ET, I will be hosting an extremely important event, “The Fed and The Presidential Election Cycle: Why the S&P 500 May Tumble”. This event is FREE, but you must register and capacity is limited. If you want to consider ways to protect your capital, then I am urging you to sign up EARLY. For more information and to register, CLICK HERE.

Happy trading!

Tom

In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, Dave recaps a strong Monday for value stocks, with the Financial and Energy sectors leading the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new highs. He shares an update on the Hindenburg Omen, how Bitcoin has regained its 200-day moving average, and key levels to watch for XLE, FANG, APA, XLF, GS, KEY, and AMZN.

See Dave’s chart on new 52-week highs and lows here!

This video originally premiered on July 15, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

In this video from StockCharts TV, Julius looks at the markets from an asset allocation perspective using various RRGs. Stocks are (still) beating bonds, while commodities are rotating out of favor and the USD is losing steam. BTC is jumping higher off support, and the Yield Curve is steepening against the longer-term flattening trend.

This video was originally broadcast on July 16, 2024. Click anywhere on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past episodes of Julius’ shows can be found here.

#StayAlert, -Julius

Seasonality is like a second opinion from a wise friend who knows something about the market’s historical tendencies. While you’re weighing current price action against the fundamental dynamics of the environment, seasonality tells you what things have typically gone on, by how much, where they’ve happened, and when they tend to happen. It’s a secondary context.

So, relative to the S&P 500 ($SPX), what might history reveal about seasonal sector performance from September to the end of the year?

Top Four Outperforming Sectors Relative to the S&P

Looking at all 11 S&P sectors’ performance against the S&P 500 over the last 10 years, four stand out for September through December—Financial, Industrial, Energy, and Materials. Let’s dive into the S&P Sector ETFs that represent these sectors.

Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF)

  • 73% average higher-close rate
  • 4.7% cumulative seasonal return
  • Dividend 1.52%

Seasonality-wise, XLF is the strongest performer, with average returns and higher-close rates rising from September through November (see chart below).

CHART 1. 10-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF XLF VS S&P. Note the positive months of September through November.

Looking at XLF’s daily chart below, it broke above $42.50, catapulting into all-time high territory. Buying momentum, based on the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) reading, appears to be increasing. Currently, XLF is outperforming the S&P 500 by over 29%. If the seasonality projections remain consistent, XLF may be headed for a breather before ending the year with a strong rally.

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF XLF. The ETF launched into all-time highs!

Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI)

  • 56% average higher-close rate
  • 2.2% cumulative seasonal return
  • Dividend 1.47%

The Industrial sector has two months of seasonal strength and weakness. The strongest month, November, sees a 78% higher close rate relative to the S&P 500 and a 1.8% average return (see chart below).

CHART 3. 10-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF XLI VS S&P 500.  Note the two strong months and December’s negative average.

Looking at XLI’s daily chart below, we can see it broke above $126 into all-time high territory. Like XLF, it’s outperforming the S&P 500 by over 29%. However, the buying pressure appears to be dwindling, so maybe the August seasonal weakness will materialize this year. If it does, that might present a buying opportunity for investors looking to get into a position. Additionally, watch for instances where decreasing momentum foreshadowed pullbacks.

CHART 4. DAILY CHART OF XLI. Most of the time, buying/selling pressure was an indicator of pullbacks and rallies.

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE)

  • 42% average higher-close rate
  • 2.1% cumulative seasonal return
  • Dividend 3.18%

September is the Energy sector’s strongest month against the S&P 500 for the second half of the year (see chart below). From that point on, the seasonal returns become increasingly negative, and the higher-close rate falls under 50%.

CHART 5. 10-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF XLE vs. S&P 500. Most positive returns in the latter half tend to be made in September and October.

Looking at XLE’s daily chart, it’s clear that momentum (see blue rectangle) has decreased and shows no sign of directionality. XLE is outperforming the S&P 500 by over 29%, but what’s fueling the rally? If XLE surpasses the resistance level of $92.50, it will be important to monitor the subsequent three resistance levels (all swing highs). Keep in mind the seasonal pattern, where September has historically provided the highest returns, but a negative trend emerges toward the end of the year.

CHART 6. DAILY CHART OF XLE. Is the momentum sputtering?

Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB)

  • 62% average higher-close rate
  • 1.9% cumulative seasonal return
  • Dividend 1.93%

Materials’ higher-close rates from September to December are high, but the returns (again, relative to the S&P 500) are generally low. November shows the most favorable month, seasonality-wise (see chart below).

CHART 7. 10-YEAR SEASONALITY CHART OF XLB vs. S&P. Regarding the higher-close rates, the last four months of the year tend to be steady, though the average returns fluctuate.

Looking at the XLB chart below, the ETF has two levels of resistance before launching into an all-time high. XLB is challenging the first level, $92. To establish a record high, XLB needs to surpass the second level, $93.

CHART 8. DAILY CHART OF XLB. Two levels of resistance ahead before entering record-high territory.

Buying pressure appears to be slowing, but, seasonality-wise, you might expect weakness in August and September (despite the latter’s higher closing rates) before anticipating steady performance until the end of the year.

At the Close

Seasonality can feel like a historical cheat sheet. The most favorable picks for September to December? XLF, XLI, XLE, and XLB have all outperformed the S&P 500 during this period over the last decade. But hold up—before diving in, check the technicals and fundamentals. Seasonality is a great guide, but a complete picture is key for making smarter investing decisions.



Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, Dave comments on the Newer Dow Theory signal, improving market breadth conditions, impact of lower interest rates, and key levels to watch for GLD, UNH, CAT, and BAC. He also breaks down today’s rally driven by small caps and value stocks as the technology sector registered a rare down day.

This video originally premiered on July 16, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.