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Consumer need for speed in package delivery, which has reached its apex with same-day shipping, has placed retailers in a tough spot when it comes to managing transportation costs. The result is increased competition among shippers for retail volume in a market dominated by FedEx and UPS, according to a new survey from global consulting firm AlixPartners.

Retail executives surveyed say as more — especially younger — consumers demand same-day delivery, the financial payoff isn’t there.

Roughly three-quarters (76%) of retail executives surveyed by AlixPartners said delivery cost on a per-package basis has increased since last year, and three out of four said home delivery does not add to profitability. An overwhelming majority (85%) said reducing their total cost per order is the No. 1 priority for last-mile delivery.

Shippers are facing their own cost pressures. “Carriers have experienced meaningful inflation in wages, equipment, repair and maintenance, insurance, fuel, tires, real estate, health-care costs, and more,” said Marc Iampieri, global co-leader of logistics & transportation, and partner & managing director of AlixPartners. “Those costs are offset by future rate increases. There is also a macro supply-and-demand equation to consider as e-commerce growth outstrips retail growth.”

Iampieri said the recent UPS-Teamsters contract renewal is a good example of wage inflation. 

To save on delivery costs, retailers are moving away from reliance on single carriers in last-mile delivery. Three out of four executives reported they are using a mix of last-mile options. To date, the shift in shipping strategy has helped FedEx, but hurt UPS. FedEx was the primary last-mile carrier cited by 42% of executives, an increase of 15% year over year. But UPS saw a decrease in retailers using it as a sole last-mile carrier, dropping from 35% in 2023 to 25% in 2024.

UPS reported weaker-than-expected profits for Q2 this week and suffered its worst single-day stock loss on record.

UPS did not respond to a request for comment by press time.

In its earnings commentary on Tuesday, it cited customers “trading down,” moving to more economic options in the most recent quarter, but also indicated this was linked to the “acceleration of new entrants, new e-commerce customers” that were coming into the market, assumed to be a reference to Asian low-cost retailers and Amazon rivals Shein and Temu. UPS also noted that it lost customers year over year due to the Teamsters contract negotiations in 2023 and customers signing long-term contracts elsewhere. 

Some alternative parcel delivery companies identified as benefitting from the move to diversify last-mile delivery include OnTrac, Pandion, and LSO/Lone Star Overnight. Additional delivery companies include Uber Eats and Uber Connect, Postmates, DoorDash, Instacart, and Shipt. 

Free delivery is still the big draw for consumers, with 92% saying that factors into their buying decisions, but the consumer threshold of waiting for product delivery is 3.5 days maximum, or else they say they will shop elsewhere.

“They are addressing this by shifting customer policies with half increasing minimum order spend in the past year,” said Chris Considine, a partner at AlixPartners. “When minimum delivery expectations aren’t met, 25% of shoppers will spend elsewhere.”

Almost two-thirds (64%) of retail executives surveyed said they increased the minimum order value for free shipping; 15% said they are requiring a minimum order value and membership for free shipping. Among consumers, 25% surveyed said they preferred to Buy Online, Pick Up in Store (BOPIS) versus delivery to avoid any shipping costs and to receive the product faster.

“While this trend has traditionally been driven by convenience, continuing shifts in service level improvements, expanding options, assortment, and return to in-person working environments are also playing a role,” Considine said.

Most consumers surveyed (92%) said a delayed order would impact their future purchase decisions and 82% expected compensation, but only 4% of companies surveyed said they would offer a discount on the next purchase for a late delivery.

Considine characterized online buying fundamentals as strong, with e-commerce sales of cleaning products up the most year over year, at 11%, followed by grocery and health/medical supply, both up 10%. Footwear and apparel purchases increased to a lesser extent.

Recent data from Motive, which tracks trucking visits to North American distribution facilities for the top five retailers, shows freight volume was up 30% year-over-year in June.

To cut costs on returns, retailers have also changed free shipping qualifications.

“Retailers are tightening the return policies such as shortening or enforcing the return window of time and eliminating free returns just for convenience and requiring a stated defect or issue with the good/product,” Iampieri said.

When given the option of shipping the return or an in-store return, over 80% of consumers reported they were willing to travel between 15-30 minutes for free in-store returns versus paying a shipping fee.

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Disneyland employees have reached a tentative deal on a new contract with the company, according to a coalition of unions, averting what would have been the first strike to hit the Southern California theme park in 40 years.

‘We have shown Disney that we are the true magic makers of the park and today proves that when workers stand together for what they deserve, we win,’ the Disney Workers Rising Bargaining Committee said in a statement. ‘We look forward to making our voices heard during the voting process to ratify this contract.’

The bargaining committee said details of the tentative agreement would be shared with union members before a formal vote on Monday. The results of that vote will then be shared with the public.

The announcement of a tentative deal comes five days after union members voted to authorize a strike by an overwhelming majority, citing alleged unfair labor practices during contract negotiations.

The number of employees who voted was not released. The unions said that, of the members who participated, 99% voted to approve a walkout.

In a statement, Disneyland Resort spokesperson Jessica Good said: ‘We care deeply about the wellbeing of our cast members and are pleased to have reached a tentative agreement with [the unions] that addresses what matters most to our cast while positioning Disneyland Resort for future growth and job creation.’

The employees covered by the contract include custodians, ride operators, candymakers and merchandise clerks at the popular theme park, a pillar of the tourism economy in Southern California. In company parlance, theme park workers are known as ‘cast members.’

The bargaining committee previously accused Disney of having ‘engaged in multiple instances of conduct we allege are unfair labor practices, including unlawful discipline and intimidation and surveillance of union members exercising their right to wear union buttons at work.’

The union buttons in question depict a Mickey Mouse-style white glove raised in a fist. (The company has insisted that costumes worn by cast members are ‘a critical part of enhancing the experience of our Disney show.’)

In recent years, labor leaders and scholars have drawn public attention to the economic struggles of employees at Disneyland and other major theme parks across the country.

In an internal survey of union members conducted earlier this year, 28% of Disneyland cast members reported experiencing food insecurity, 33% reported experiencing housing insecurity in the last year, and 42% reported needing to miss work for medical treatment because they did not have enough sick leave.

The four unions that represent the workers are the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers (BCTGM) Local 83; the Service Employees International Union-United Service Workers West (SEIU-USWW); the Teamsters Local 495; and the United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) Local 324.

The last time Disneyland was hit with a strike was September 1984, when nearly 2,000 cast members walked off the job for 22 days.

The pre-existing contract for cast members at Disneyland expired June 16. The contract for cast members at Disney California Adventure and Downtown Disney expires Sept. 30.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Dozens of Delta Air Lines flights were canceled and more than 200 delayed Wednesday as the Atlanta-based carrier continued to recover from last week’s global CrowdStrike-Microsoft IT outage.

But in a statement, Delta CEO Ed Bastian said the carrier had largely recovered from the outsized impact it experienced from the incident.

Data from FlightAware on Wednesday morning showed 47 canceled and 242 delayed Delta flights, though it was not immediately clear how many were attributable to IT issues, as a major storm system moved through the southern United States.

Dallas-based American Airlines was seeing similar cancellation and delay numbers.

Separate data from the aviation intelligence group Anuvu showed 16% of scheduled Delta flights were canceled, with just 18% departing on time.

In his statement, Bastian said he expected cancellations Wednesday ‘to be minimal.’

‘While our initial efforts to stabilize the operations were difficult and frustratingly slow and complex, we have made good progress this week and the worst impacts of the CrowdStrike-caused outage are clearly behind us,’ Bastian said, noting delays and cancellations were down 50% Tuesday compared to Monday.

‘Thursday is expected to be a normal day, with the airline fully recovered and operating at a traditional level of reliability.’

Delta said Tuesday that many of its worldwide operations relied on Microsoft, and that a crew scheduling system had seen an acute disruption as a result of the glitch.

That led to thousands of the carrier’s flights being canceled, leaving passengers stranded at airports and prompting the Transportation Department to investigate.

In an appearance Tuesday on NBC News Now with Hallie Jackson, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said he had spoken with Bastian to remind him that passengers who decline to take rebookings are entitled to cash refunds.

“This could absolutely lead to major enforcement action,” Buttigieg said, noting the record penalty his department had levied against Southwest Airlines after its 2022 winter meltdown.

‘We really wanted to send a message that this is a new chapter in how we enforce passenger protections and rights … clearly we need to continue sending that message,’ he said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The Federal Aviation Administration said Tuesday it was placing Southwest Airlines under a heightened safety review after a string of recent near-miss safety incidents involving the low-cost carrier.

In a statement, the agency said it was increasing oversight of Southwest ‘to ensure it is complying with federal safety regulations.’

“Safety will drive the timeline,” the agency said.

The development comes amid ongoing jitters about the state of U.S. aviation first sparked in January, when a door panel on a Boeing-manufactured aircraft blew out midair. That incident prompted the Justice Department to open a criminal investigation of Boeing, and led to the ouster of its leadership. A planned rollout of Boeing’s latest-generation 737 Max line was also suspended.

Since then, United Airlines announced in March an independent review of its safety measures following its own near-miss incidents. In May, the U.S. Transportation Department Office of Inspector General said it would audit the FAA’s oversight of United Airlines maintenance practices — the fifth-such OIG report following ones scrutinizing the FAA’s oversight of Allegiant, American, SkyWest and Southwest airlines’ maintenance practices.

Last week, a global IT outage linked to an update of Microsoft Windows by the cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike grounded flights worldwide, leaving thousands of passengers stranded. By Wednesday, Delta Air Lines said it was still working to recover from the issue.

The FAA did not specify which incidents had prompted its latest audit announcement about Southwest.

But in April, a flight departing from Honolulu come within 400 feet of slamming into the ocean after what appeared to be an instance of pilot error. No one was injured and the plane eventually landed safely.

Details of the incident were first reported in June by Bloomberg News.

In a statement following the Bloomberg report, Southwest said ‘the event was addressed appropriately as we always strive for continuous improvement.”

As news of the Hawaii incident emerged last month, new reports surfaced of a ‘Dutch roll’ incident — said to mimic a famous Dutch ice skating tactic — on a flight from Phoenix to Oakland that caused a significant rocking motion midair.

A subsequent investigation revealed damage to both a backup power unit as well as ‘structural components’ in a way that appeared to be unique to Southwest.

“Other airlines have not reported similar issues,” the FAA said at the time.

Within days of the Dutch roll incident, reports emerged of a Southwest flight that triggered a low-altitude alert over Oklahoma City.

And prior to the FAA’s audit announcement this week, the agency said it had begun investigating an incident involving a Southwest flight departing from Columbus, Ohio, bound for Tampa that flew as low as 150 feet over Florida waters and resulted in an emergency landing in Fort Lauderdale.

In a statement Tuesday, Southwest said it was working closely with the FAA as the agency undertakes its new review, and that it had formed a new team of experts to bolster its safety management system.

‘Nothing is more important to Southwest than the safety of our customers and employees,’ it said.

Appearing with NBC News anchor and senior Washington correspondent Hallie Jackson on Tuesday, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg indicated there is no reason to believe it is unsafe to fly Southwest. But he said that while U.S. commercial aviation remains the safest in the world, ‘we’ve got to keep it that way.’

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The Justice Department’s inspector general on Wednesday blamed “ineffectual leadership” and not political interference for the softening of Roger Stone’s sentencing recommendation in February 2020 after his conviction for lying to Congress. The report upheld an account by then-Attorney General William P. Barr but also found that line prosecutors’ suspicions of political meddling by President Donald Trump’s administration were not unreasonable.

A longtime political confidant of Trump and a GOP consultant, Stone was found guilty by a jury in November 2019 of lying to a House panel investigating Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. At sentencing, front-line prosecutors initially notified the court that a sentence of about six to seven years would be appropriate under federal guidelines.

Within hours of that filing, and after Trump tweeted that the request was “disgraceful” and a “miscarriage of justice” that could not be allowed, Barr overruled the trial team. A second memo signed by supervisors retracted the recommendation, prompting all four prosecutors to quit the case. Some of them later said publicly that they believed they were undercut by department leaders to protect Trump’s longtime ally.

Stone was ultimately sentenced to a little more than three years behind bars, which Trump later commuted, sparing him prison time.

The Stone sentencing triggered a crisis of confidence in Barr and the Justice Department through the end of Trump’s presidency, prompting hundreds of former employees to call for his resignation and to exhort active employees to report any unethical conduct or politicization of decisions.

After a four-year investigation, the office of Inspector General Michael E. Horowitz said it found no evidence of political interference and instead blamed “ineffectual leadership” by then-acting U.S. attorney Tim Shea of Washington, D.C., who was supervising the case and who had been on the job for two weeks.

Barr, who declined to be interviewed for the inspector general’s investigation, at the time denied that Trump’s Twitter tirade prompted the reversal. Instead, Barr said Shea — formerly one of his closest advisers at the department — had initially signaled to him that the recommendation would be much lower. Barr said he had been “very surprised” by the outcome.

Horowitz’s office found that “rather than taking the approach he discussed with Barr, and despite telling Barr that he believed the Guidelines range was unreasonable,” Shea authorized line prosecutors to issue a stiffer recommendation. Barr expressed to staffers that the action was not what he and Shea had discussed and needed to be “fixed,” but the inspector general found that Barr’s position was consistent before and after the recommendation was filed and before Trump tweeted.

“Based on the evidence described in this report, we concluded that the sequence of events that resulted in the Department’s extraordinary step of filing a second sentencing memorandum was largely due to Shea’s ineffectual leadership,” the report concluded.

The report added, however, that prosecutor Aaron Zelinsky’s later testimony to Congress that he and the rest of the trial team had been pressured to revise the memorandum for political reasons “was not unreasonable.” It cited statements by another prosecutor and “speculative comments” by a supervising prosecutor about possible political interference.

“We recognize that the Department’s handling of the sentencing in the Stone case was highly unusual,” given the participation of Trump political appointees Shea and Barr, the report stated. However, it concluded that absent any prohibition on their involvement, their actions were ultimately left up to their own “discretion and judgment,” including on how they would affect public perceptions of the department’s integrity and independence.

Zelinsky attorney Joshua Matz said in a statement: “The rule of law depends on prosecutors pursuing and telling the truth. My client is gratified the report confirms that he told the truth about what he saw and heard.”

Representatives for Shea, Barr and Trump could not immediately be reached for comment.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

House Republicans leaders, including Speaker Mike Johnson, have asked their members not to make comments about Vice President Harris’s race after a number of GOP lawmakers referenced her identity in attacks on the likely Democratic presidential nominee.

Almost immediately after President Biden announced Sunday that he was endorsing Harris to replace him on the ticket, Republicans began their offensive, with some veering into attacks over the race and gender of the first Black and South Asian woman to serve as vice president.

In a closed-door conference meeting on Tuesday, House GOP leaders, including Johnson (La.) and Rep. Richard Hudson (N.C.), chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, told Republicans to focus on Harris’s policy record and time in the administration rather than go after her identity, according to multiple people who spoke on the condition of anonymity to freely discuss internal conversations. Politico first reported on the meeting.

Johnson later told reporters that the he thinks Republicans should make the election “about policies, not personalities.”

Following Harris’s emergence as a likely Biden replacement, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), in a post on X, called Harris a “DEI vice president” — referring to “diversity, equity and inclusion.” House Republicans have sought to counter such diversity initiatives in federal programs through the funding process.

Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Wyo.), who defeated former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) in 2022, told a reporter that she thinks Harris is “a DEI hire.” And Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.) told a CBS affiliate that Democrats chose Harris as the likely nominee “because of her ethnic background.”

In recent years, conservatives have targeted “DEI” programs — often used at workplaces to diversify the workforce — because they say they lead to minorities getting jobs over White candidates.

Other Republicans echoed Johnson’s admonition. In an interview with The Washington Post, Rep. David Joyce (R-Ohio) said members attacking Harris’s race “need to keep their mouths shut and just worry about their [district] race.”

“I think Vice President Harris and former president Trump is the match and let those two talk about each other,” he said.

Democrats, meanwhile, chided Republicans for attacking Harris’s identity.

“DEI stands for diversity, equity and inclusion. That means all of us, not some of us,” said Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.), a member of the Congressional Black Caucus. “So they’re trying to just make their attacks — some sad ones, too, that we’ve seen — but we’ll get past that, and she’ll get past that.”

“It’s a strategy that’s going to backfire,” Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) told CNN. “The majority of Americans — women — know what this feels like, to do everything you can to get your credentials, college education, advanced degrees, and, no matter what you do, people say you’re not enough. Or that you don’t belong in that room.”

Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) said that those calling Harris a “DEI candidate” forget that she has “more experience than Trump and J.D. Vance combined times a million.”

“She worked at the state level. She was the [California] attorney general. She’s vice president of the United States. She was a senator representing one of the largest states in the entire country,” he told CNN. “These are just racist dog whistles.”

On Wednesday, Burchett said that while he wishes he hadn’t made those comments about Harris, “it was the truth.”

“It’s not racist behavior,” he told SiriusXM. “That’s the furthest thing from my mind. I just want the best players put in.”

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President Biden plans to deliver a somber, reflective address from the Oval Office on Wednesday evening, speaking to the nation for the first time since his monumental decision to end both his reelection campaign and political career.

With less than six months left in his presidency, Biden is set to use the prime time address to defend his record, define his legacy and describe his vision for the rest of his term. With much of the country’s focus already shifted to Vice President Harris’s rapid ascent as Democrats’ likely presidential nominee, Biden intends to show Americans that he still plans to make an impact during his final months in office.

“There’s been a feeling that Joe Biden has disappeared from the scene and everybody is doing a eulogy for him,” said presidential historian Douglas Brinkley. “Yet he’s still our president all the way until January. He wants to use the prime-time television address to remind people that our country is still in good stead under his leadership.”

The speech will be the first opportunity for Biden to more fully explain why he decided to drop out of the race, a move that made him the first president since 1968 to voluntarily opt against seeking another term. In his letter making the announcement on Sunday, Biden offered few details on his thought process.

“And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term,” Biden wrote in the letter.

Previously, the 81-year-old Biden had dismissed questions about his advanced age and sluggish poll numbers, defiantly rejecting calls for him to step aside. His abrupt reversal upended an already turbulent campaign against Republican nominee Donald Trump, elevating Harris into the role of Democrats’ de facto leader.

As he adjusts to his new role as a lame duck, one-term president, there are signs that Biden is hoping to ramp up his presidential activity even as he prepares for the sunset of his half-century career in Washington.

“I won’t be on the ticket, but I’m still going to be fully, fully engaged,” Biden told a group of campaign staff on Monday. “I’m determined to get [as] much done as I possibly can — both foreign policy and domestic policy.”

In what could be a preview of his Oval Office address, Biden focused specifically on Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza, where his administration has been pushing for a cease-fire agreement that would result in the release of hostages held by Hamas since last October. Efforts to secure such a deal have intensified in recent days, coinciding with Wednesday’s visit to Washington by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Biden has signaled that a hostage release — which would include several Americans — was on the “verge” of being a reality.

The president plans to meet with Netanyahu to discuss the cease-fire agreement on Thursday, a sign of the key role he would still play in world affairs.

“We’re still fighting in this fight together,” he told the campaign staffers on Monday. “I’m not going anywhere.”

Still, it is not clear how much his decision to bow out of the presidential race will change his schedule going forward. Biden, who was out of sight for five days as he recovered from covid, has continued to maintain a relatively light schedule. He had been set to travel to Texas, California and Colorado this week for campaigning and fundraising but canceled all of that travel. He plans to spend the weekend at Camp David, and aides said some of the canceled events would be rescheduled.

Republicans have responded to Biden’s exit from the race by calling on him to resign the presidency altogether, suggesting that if he is not capable of running a reelection race he should not remain in the White House. Some amplified conspiracy theories that he had died or was gravely ill.

Trump took to social media Tuesday to question whether Biden “is fit to run the U.S.A. for the next six months?”

Biden and his aides have forcefully pushed back on the idea that the president has been sidelined or otherwise diminished. The prime-time Oval Office address, just the fourth of his presidency, is designed to give the president a national platform to frame his time in office and tout his long list of accomplishments while also offering a boost to the woman who is now Democrats’ likely nominee.

Biden’s low-profile of late has had the effect of ceding the spotlight to Harris, who has been traveling the country to jump-start her presidential campaign. She used a keynote speech to more than 6,000 Black women on Wednesday to offer gratitude for his endorsement and to preview his speech.

“He will talk about not only the work, the extraordinary work that he has accomplished, but about his work for the next six months,” Harris told a gathering of the Zeta Phi Beta sorority in Indianapolis. “Joe Biden is a leader with bold vision. He cares about the future. He thinks about the future.”

In recent days, Harris’s campaign has been buoyed by a surge in enthusiasm, fundraising and support — all of which had been lacking in Biden’s campaign amid concerns about his age and health.

While the success or failure of Harris’s candidacy against Trump could determine the durability of Biden’s legacy and legislative record — much of which Trump has vowed to overturn in a second term — he must also grapple with the idea that his vice president has suddenly become a more influential figure in the Democratic Party.

But Biden’s decision to speak from the Oval Office, where presidents have often announced consequential developments on matters of domestic or global significance, highlights his ongoing role and powers, Brinkley said.

“He is a lame duck president legislatively, but he can still sign executive orders and be a world leader in trying to seek a cease-fire in the Middle East and continue funding to achieve liberation for Ukraine,” the historian noted. “He may have lost some stature here at home, but in the world of foreign policy, he’s more important than ever.”

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The Democratic National Convention’s rules committee approved the process Wednesday for selecting their presidential nominee via a virtual roll call vote, to begin early next month.

Vice President Harris, who has amassed more than enough pledged support from delegates to win, is likely to be declared the official nominee by Aug. 7.

As of now, no serious candidate has emerged to challenge Harris for the nomination. If she remains the only person running, electronic voting will begin Aug. 1. If other candidates emerge, the voting may start a bit later to give them time to campaign for delegate votes, according to Democratic National Convention rules.

Any Democrat who wants to seek the presidential nomination has until Tuesday at 6 p.m. to formally declare their candidacy and obtain signatures of support from 300 delegates. At least 3,180 of the nearly 4,000 Democratic delegates have endorsed Harris, according to a survey by the Associated Press.

Political parties traditionally nominate the presidential ticket at their conventions, but Democrats decided this year to hold a virtual roll call weeks earlier than their Aug. 19 Chicago convention to ensure they meet ballot access deadlines. The issue arose due to an Aug. 7 Ohio deadline that could have kept the Democratic ticket off that state’s ballot.

The GOP-led Ohio legislature passed a law extending the deadline, but Democrats have insisted that they don’t trust Republicans in that state to adhere to it. Democrat have also pointed to late-August ballot deadlines in other states to suggest that the timeline is too tight for them to wait until the convention to nominate the party ticket.

State election officials in several states have said there are processes in place to help parties who might miss deadlines to ensure they get their candidates on the ballot. Election law experts say any legal efforts to challenge this would probably be dismissed by the courts because there is a deference to parties’ rights to have their nominees appear on the ballot.

Still, Pat Moore, a lawyer for the Democratic Party, insisted during a virtual meeting of the convention’s rules committee that they expected Republicans to be litigious about ballot deadlines, “arguing that our nominees should never have been on the ballot in the first place.”

A rules committee member asked during debate why the Democrats hadn’t considered the ballot access deadlines when they planned a late-August convention.

“Unfortunately, 2020 demonstrated that as far as election litigation is concerned, we are in a new world,” Moore said. “Will we face litigation no matter what? I think that’s safe to say … but accepting that we will face that litigation does not mean that we are powerless to strengthen our position.”

The new rules also note that there will still be a state-by-state roll call for the Democratic ticket at the Chicago convention but described those votes as “celebratory and ceremonial.”

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Nine days ago, Donald Trump picked a running mate in Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) that projected confidence about the race ahead. Trump seemed to be choosing a desire to guide his party in a more MAGA direction over expanding his base to improve his chances in the 2024 election.

The flip side of that, as I noted at the time, was risk. Vance didn’t pack the same base-expanding potential as other candidates (such as Sen. Tim Scott, Sen. Marco Rubio and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum). And Vance’s only campaign — for Senate in 2022 — was nothing to write home about. Despite winning, he polled as unpopular and performed significantly worse than any other statewide Ohio GOP candidate.

A week after Vance’s big introduction at the Republican National Convention, that risk looms large.

At least five quality polls out this week have gauged Vance’s image, and each shows that more people dislike him than like him. They show he is between two and nine points underwater.

As CNN’s Harry Enten noted Tuesday, that appears to be without recent precedent. Vice-presidential picks usually get a honeymoon period, and none has been in such negative territory so soon after their debut on the biggest stage.

But how much does that mean at this early juncture?

Let’s first dive into the numbers, from the CNN, NPR-PBS-Marist College, Reuters-Ipsos, Quinnipiac University and Economist-YouGov polls:

  • Vance’s best numbers are in the Marist poll (31 percent favorable versus 33 percent unfavorable). But in every other poll, he’s between six and nine points underwater.
  • Vance appears to struggle with independent voters. In four of the five polls, his unfavorable rating with them is double digits higher than his favorable rating. (The fifth poll shows him eight points underwater.)
  • He doesn’t appear to have improved his image in recent days. The Reuters-Ipsos poll showed him going from six points negative last week to seven points negative today. CNN showed him going from seven points negative last month to six points negative now. In both cases, many more voters have rendered judgments on him than before, but those reviews haven’t been positive.

We are, of course, in unusual times. Vance’s introduction was overshadowed by the assassination attempt on Trump just two days before. It has also come amid plenty of focus on the Democratic side — and particularly whether President Biden would end his campaign, as he ultimately did Sunday. Perhaps Vance didn’t really have the chance to win people’s attention (and approval).

He also enters the stage at a time when voters are particularly sour on national politics. It’s rare to see any politician be popular; Trump, Biden and Vice President Harris are all also viewed more negatively than positively.

But generally speaking, VP picks are different — and more popular than the people who pick them. Hillary Clinton was double digits underwater for most of the 2016 campaign, but Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) was pretty popular soon after Clinton selected him as her running mate. Biden had middling numbers in 2020, but Harris’s unpopularity from her 2020 presidential primary campaign soon reversed.

And Trump’s previous running mate, Mike Pence, was generally popular despite Trump’s being as much as 20 or 30 points underwater down the home stretch of the 2020 campaign.

It did take some time for Pence and Harris to improve their images — it didn’t happen immediately after the conventions — but voters were at least initially evenly split on them.

And, notably, Vance’s numbers are also worse than those for most of the big names being floated as potential running mates for Harris. Both Reuters-Ipsos and Economist-YouGov also tested such names as Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Sen. Mark Kelly (Ariz.) and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. In each case, about as many Americans liked them as disliked them.

So it’s evident that Vance has some work to do and that his introduction hasn’t exactly gone swimmingly.

That doesn’t mean this is a major liability for Trump; Vance isn’t so unpopular that he would seem to be a reason for Trump-inclined voters to abandon Trump. The top of the ticket is what matters to the vast majority of voters, even as Trump’s running mate could matter somewhat more, given that Trump is 78.

But it does point to what may be a missed opportunity — the opportunity to put forward a running mate who appeals to voters who might be skeptical of Trump or gives them something Trump doesn’t.

That mattered less under the previous setup, when Trump appeared to be a pretty strong favorite to defeat Biden. If Harris can make the race more competitive and Vance’s numbers don’t improve — both big ifs — you can bet that more than a few people will begin to question the wisdom of a decision that seemed dicey even at the time.

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An Instagram video posted Wednesday shows hundreds of mealworms, maggots and crickets crawling around the Watergate Hotel where Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is staying during his visit to D.C., raising questions about how protesters who claimed to unleash the vermin were able to get onto the property as the area has been under tight security.

The video, posted jointly to Instagram by the Palestinian Youth Movement and its DMV chapter, depicts swarms of crickets on the hotel’s floor and claims protesters triggered the hotel’s fire alarm “to ensure that there will be no rest before Netanyahu and Congress disgraces themselves in front of the world” when the Israeli leader addressed Congress in a joint meeting Wednesday. The video also shows maggots and mealworms crawling across a table set with drinking glasses as Israeli and American flags stand side by side in the background.

An official familiar with the situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss security matters said the video appeared to be authentic.

Residents of the Watergate complex said U.S. Secret Service and D.C. police set up checkpoints over the weekend to vet anyone entering the property.

“The Watergate facility has an expansive footprint and remains open for businesses, residences and guests,” said Abel Trevino, a spokesperson for a public safety team made up of local and federal agencies staffing Netanyahu’s visit to the District. “At no time was there any threat to our protectees.”

The hotel, whose answering machine ironically greets callers with “There’s no need to break in” as a nod to its storied history, said in a statement it was aware of the video and “the unfortunate incident that occurred at the property yesterday.”

“Our top priority is the safety and well-being of our guests and staff,” the statement from a hotel spokesperson said. “We took the necessary steps to ensure the property has been sanitized and is now operating as normal. We are cooperating fully with authorities, who are handling the situation. As this is an open case, we are unable to provide any further details at this time.”

A D.C. Fire and EMS spokesperson said in a statement that the agency had fire inspectors stationed at Netanyahu’s hotel “at the request of the United States Secret Service,” and that after the alarm sounded, fire officials “determined there was no fire emergency and any fire department response was cancelled.”

Netanyahu’s office did not respond to a request for comment.

Zaid Khatib, 27, an organizer with the DMV chapter of the Palestinian Youth Movement said an anonymous tipster sent the video to his group, which in turn posted it Wednesday morning.

Khatib said he was not involved in this protest and did not know who was responsible, but he said protesters have also held noise demonstrations outside the hotel every morning and night to make sure Netanyahu “will enjoy no rest while he is here.”

The releasing of maggots, he said, reflects “the fact that all of D.C. from organizations to individuals reject the stay of a war criminal in our city.”

Khatib said he does not know if there are more protests planned for inside the Watergate Hotel.

“It reflects a tremendous security failure on their part,” he said, referring to law enforcement. “The city of D.C. and the United States government has stolen tens of millions of dollars to roll out the red carpet for a war criminal and even then, they can’t stop something as simple as maggots being dropped … at the Watergate Hotel.”

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