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In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, Dave previews earnings releases from TSLA and GOOGL, breaks down key levels to watch for SPOT, GE, and more, and analyzes the discrepancy between S&P 500 and Nasdaq breadth indicators.

See Dave’s MarketCarpet featuring the Vanilla color scheme here.

This video originally premiered on July 24, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

After a big run this year, Nvidia (NVDA) fell over 15% from its high and broke its 50-day SMA. On the face of it, a break below this “key” moving average seems like a short-term bearish signal. Such a view, however, would ignore the long term trend, which is the dominate force at work.

The first job is to define the long-term trend because this provides perspective and sets the trading bias. Nvidia is clearly in a long-term uptrend because it is well above the rising 200-day SMA and it recorded a new high a month ago. During a long-term uptrend, declines are viewed as corrections that provide opportunities. The break below the 50-day SMA, therefore, is more of an opportunity than a threat. Our reports and videos this week suggest the same for QQQ.

Corrections come in all shapes and sizes. We could get a short pullback, an extended pullback or a trading range. Nobody really knows. The decline into April broke the 50-day, but this correction was short-lived as the stock broke out in early May. The decline in September-October 2023 was longer because NVDA broke the 50-day SMA twice. These breaks did not lead to a bigger trend reversal.

Looking at the current break, the decline over the last four weeks looks like a normal correction after a big advance. NVDA was up 78% from mid April to mid June. A correction that retraces a portion of this advance is perfectly normal. The long-term trend is still up and I view this correction as an opportunity, not a threat.  

ChartTrader will cover the declines in leading tech and AI stocks on Tuesday, July 30th. We will put these declines into perspective, identify potential reversal zones and mark corrective patterns when possible. This report and video will include Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), Dell Technologies (DELL), Pure Storage (PSTG) and more. Click here to learn more.

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In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, Dave previews earnings releases from TSLA and GOOGL, breaks down key levels to watch for SPOT, GE, and more, and analyzes the discrepancy between S&P 500 and Nasdaq breadth indicators.

This video originally premiered on July 23, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, Dave previews earnings releases from TSLA and GOOGL, breaks down key levels to watch for SPOT, GE, and more, and analyzes the discrepancy between S&P 500 and Nasdaq breadth indicators.

See Dave’s MarketCarpet featuring the Vanilla color scheme here.

This video originally premiered on July 24, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

Wednesday’s price action in the stock market indicated that fear is back. The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) closed up by over 22%, the biggest percentage move for the year. There’s a chance volatility could remain elevated for the near term—it’s the middle of earnings season, the November election landscape has changed, and it’s a seasonally weak period for equities.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) experienced the worst trading day of the year. The Nasdaq Composite was hit hard, closing lower by 3.64%. From a big-picture point of view, how much damage did the drop do? Let’s look closely at the price action in the Nasdaq Composite, starting with the weekly chart.

The Macro View of the Nasdaq

Looking at a five-year weekly chart below, the uptrend that commenced in October 2023 is still in play. The moving averages overlaid on the chart are adjusted to reflect support levels for the uptrend since October 2023. The short-term uptrend followed the eight-week exponential moving average (EMA). In April 2024, the Nasdaq Composite bounced off the 25-week simple moving average (SMA), and in October, the index bounced off its 48-week SMA. 

CHART 1. WEEKLY CHART OF NASDAQ COMPOSITE. Will the Nasdaq find support at its 25-week moving average? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

On Wednesday, the Nasdaq Composite broke below its eight-week EMA, the first alarm bell indicating that things may not be great in AI land. The following day, the selloff continued in the early part of the trading day but recovered some losses. 

If the selloff continues, the next point to watch would be the 25-week SMA which corresponds closely with the support of the last previous weekly high. Will the Nasdaq bounce off this level similar to what it did in April or will it continue lower and bounce off its 48-week SMA like it did in October? Or will the Nasdaq honor the support level of previous highs and lows (blue dashed lines)? 

Any of the scenarios could play out, or, as is characteristic of the stock market, it could do something unique.

A Shorter-Term View of the Nasdaq

Let’s turn to the daily chart (see chart below) to zero in on that first support level on the weekly chart, 16,670. To hit that level, the Nasdaq Composite will have to fall between the 100-day SMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. You can see from the chart that the Nasdaq approached its 50% Fib retracement level but reversed and moved back up to the 38.2% retracement level.

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF NASDAQ COMPOSITE. The index recovered. The question is, will it sustain? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If VIX remains elevated, expect more sizable movements in the Nasdaq and other equity indexes. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for June drops on Friday.

Earnings Volatility

Earnings had a lot to do with this week’s price action. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) reported on Tuesday after the close. Even though GOOGL beat earnings expectations, the decline in YouTube revenues led investors to sell the stock. TSLA earnings missed estimates, with the stock closing lower by 12.33%. 

Next week, we’ll hear from more Mag 7 companies. Given that investors are getting jittery about tech stocks, the companies have to produce incredibly strong earnings reports. Even one negative report can send the stock price and the entire stock market lower.

Assuming that equities fall further—it’s a fair assumption given that a correction is expected—what kind of investment strategy should you apply? Your first thought may be bonds, but they’re not showing signs of strength. Bond prices fell on Wednesday along with stocks. Commodities and cryptocurrencies aren’t showing signs of enthusiasm either.

Small-Cap Stocks

Small-cap stocks are outperforming large-cap stocks, as displayed in the chart of the ratio between iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) below. Compare the price action to what occurred between December 2023 and January 2024. The S&P chart in the lower panel doesn’t show a sizable correction during that period. But no two periods are alike so it’s best to keep a close watch on the different moving parts of the stock market. 

CHART 3. SMALL CAPS VS. LARGE CAPS. Small caps are outperforming large-cap stocks, although it doesn’t necessarily mean that large caps will pull back significantly. It’s still worth watching this chart. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

IWM is made up of small-cap US stocks. Interestingly, one of the top holdings in IWM is Insmed Inc. (INSM), a stock with a high StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score. It also has an interesting chart pattern (see chart below).

CHART 4. DAILY CHART OF INSMED INC. (INSM). The chart gapped about its previous all-time high in 2021 and is now consolidating. With a strong SCTR score, will the stock maintain its strong position? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The stock price gapped up above its February 2021 all-time high and has continued moving higher. It’s now consolidating. Watch for the stock to break out above the descending triangle pattern (blue dashed lines) or to reach the support of its 25-day SMA. An upside follow-through from either of these patterns could make this a strong trading candidate. So, set your alerts on StockCharts so you don’t miss this one. 

You could do a similar analysis on other top IWM holdings, such as FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI), Vaxcyte Inc. (PCVX), and Sprouts Farmers Market Inc. (SFM).

Other Market Segments To Consider   

Other areas of the market worth considering are value stocks. Bring up a ratio chart of the iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) to the iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF). 

Regional banks are also performing well. Bring up a chart of the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE). If this catches your attention, head to the StockCharts Symbol Summary page, type in KRE, and start your research. The Profile section has a link to the ETF page from where you can find the top holdings. 

Closing Position

If volatile conditions persist in the market for the next month or so, you’ll need to develop a strategy to manage your portfolio to cushion your drawdowns. Next week there are more earnings and a Fed meeting. So, be prepared with your game plan.



Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

In late June, Gilead Sciences (GILD) stock surged following positive results of a late-stage trial for its latest HIV drug. 

The big market buzz was that Gilead was on the verge of something huge, and investors were not about to wait around for proof. They dove in early, seeing the price jump as a prime “ground floor” opportunity.

Expecting a pullback, given the speculative nature of the spike, there were key levels where a bounce could occur, providing an opportunity for you to ride Gilead’s momentum, even if just for a swing trade. The bullish thesis worked out, so let’s examine what happened.

What Happened and Where’s GILD Going?

The Gilead chart below zooms in on the price action following the trial results. The big unknown at the time was whether the spike on June 20 was going to pull back, and whether a pullback would end the uptrend. 

CHART 1. DAILY CHART OF GILEAD SCIENCES. The stock price pulled back, and the levels projected in June have so far held. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Before the Pullback in the Stock Price

What made this decision point particularly difficult were the following:

  • A StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score of 30 (see blue arrow) wasn’t by any means promising, but from a bullish perspective, it also meant the potential for a ground-floor entry.
  • The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)  indicated that buying pressure was fading (see blue dotted line in the CMF indicator window), suggesting a pullback or resumption of the downtrend.

With strong bullish sentiment hinging on an upcoming FDA trial and shaky technicals aside from a solid breakout, a long trade might have felt like a coin toss, one slightly favoring the bulls. Hence, the importance of the key levels $68 and $66 and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

After the Pullback in the Stock Price

Let’s zoom in to the same chart above.

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF GILEAD SCIENCES. Here, you can see the exact entry points and how prices respected the levels. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Here, you can see that the $66 support level converged with the 50-day SMA. GILD respected this level as buyers jumped in, anticipating a bounce, which they did get. Although the CMF entered negative territory, you can see how selling pressure began to fizzle out, and buying pressure overtook the bears.

As prices took out the June high, its pullback respected the $70.50 level (see second magenta circle), launching GILD to take out critical resistance right below $75 (see heavy blue dotted line).

The question is whether, upon a third pullback, the stock price will respect support at $75 and surge to (or beyond) $79. 

At the Close

You might be wondering if GILD is still a buy. It was a buy (emphasis on “was”), as the price action presented an ideal opportunity on the ground level. If you’re a longer-term investor, it would be wise to wait and see how GILD fares in light of its final testing period and FDA review process. 

If anything, the June GILD scenario underscores the importance of acting on key levels when the market flashes a fleeting opportunity amidst drastic (and bullish) fundamental and technical shifts. 



Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Families of hostages held captive in Gaza condemned Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to the United States Congress, as pressure grows on the Israeli prime minister to agree to a deal to secure their release.

“The speech and applause won’t erase the one sad fact: The words ‘Deal Now!’ were absent from the prime minister’s address,” The Hostage and Missing Families Forum in Israel said in a statement.

People gathered at the so-called Hostages Square in Tel Aviv to watch Netanyahu’s speech on Wednesday, which drew raucous applause inside Congress but was also snubbed by dozens of Democrats.

The Hostages and Missing Families Forum has become a potent political force in Israel since some 250 people were abducted by Hamas on October 7, and the square a regular site of protests demanding that the hostages be brought home.

“They came to watch the broadcast of the speech and hear addresses from family members of the hostages, hoping to hear the Prime Minister utter the two crucial words: ‘There’s a deal,’” the statement said.

During his nearly 52-minute address, Netanyahu lashed out against critics of Israel’s war in Gaza but did not mention the status of the ceasefire negotiations, despite intense international pressure to find a deal and growing optimism that one could soon be struck.

Rather than mentioning a deal, a bellicose Netanyahu told Congress: “The war in Gaza could end tomorrow if Hamas surrenders, disarms and returns all the hostages. But if they don’t, Israel will fight until we destroy Hamas’ military capabilities, end its rule in Gaza and bring all our hostages home.”

But Netanyahu is facing growing calls to negotiate a deal to secure the hostages’ release. Noam Peri, daughter of Chaim Peri, who the Israeli government last month said died in Hamas captivity, said: “You can no longer save my father, but you must return to our shared values and restore the basic contract between us – before it’s too late.”

“Sign the deal, save the hostages who are alive and fighting for their lives every moment,” she urged.

Criticism from families of hostages was echoed by Yair Lapid of the opposition Labor party, who wrote on X: “Disgrace! An hour of talking without saying the one sentence: ‘There will be a kidnapping deal.’”

But Netanyahu’s speech was lauded by members of his government. Foreign Minister Israel Katz said the “moving and important” speech demonstrates “the strength of alliance between the US and Israel.”

Bezalel Smotrich, the hard-right finance minister and chairman of the Religious Zionist Party, said: “Our Jewish and Israeli hearts are moved and filled with pride on this important occasion.”

After Netanyahu’s speech, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced it had retrieved the bodies of five hostages and brought them back to Israel. The bodies of Ravid Katz, Kiril Brodski, Tomer Ahimas, Oren Goldin and Maya Goren were found during an operation in the Khan Younis area on Wednesday, the IDF said, where it launched a fresh ground offensive this week.

This means that 111 hostages remain in Gaza, including 39 believed to be dead, according to data from Netanyahu’s office. There are eight dual-American citizens believed still to be captive in Gaza, three of whom have been confirmed dead. The Biden administration has not shared information about the five who may still be alive.

The recovery of the five bodies came after Israel renewed its offensive in Khan Younis. The United Nations estimates that about 150,000 people fled the area on Monday alone, after the IDF issued evacuation orders that have intensified pressure on the meager supplies of food and water, and the lack of places to seek shelter.

Absent Democrats

Despite the warm reception by lawmakers in Congress, about 80 House Democrats skipped Netanyahu’s speech, including US Vice President Kamala Harris, who instead attended a pre-scheduled trip to a sorority event in Indiana. President Joe Biden and Harris are scheduled to meet with Netanyahu at the White House Thursday.

Also among the absentees was former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who later blasted Netanyahu’s speech as “by far the worst presentation of any foreign dignitary invited and honored with the privilege of addressing the Congress of the United States.”

“Many of us who love Israel spent time today listening to Israeli citizens whose families have suffered in the wake of the October 7th Hamas terror attack and kidnappings. These families are asking for a ceasefire deal that will bring the hostages home – and we hope the Prime Minister would spend his time achieving that goal,” she said in a statement.

Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib, the lone Palestinian-American congresswoman, held up a black-and-white sign during Netanyahu’s speech. One side said, “War criminal;” the other, “Guilty of genocide.”

A number of House Democrats and Republicans criticized Tlaib’s demonstration. Democratic Rep. Steny Hoyer said the sign was “unfortunate” and not appropriate.

While most of the chamber rose to applaud Netanyahu as he entered, Tlaib was among three Democrats who remained seated. Sen. Chuck Schumer stood to welcome Netanyahu, did not not applaud. Sen. Mark Kelly, a potential pick for Vice President in November, did applaud the Israeli leader.

With so many Democrats skipping the speech, a number of Republicans sat on the Democratic side of the aisle.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

The death toll from devastating landslides in southern Ethiopia has climbed to more than 250 and could rise as high as 500, the UN warned, citing local authorities.

The landslides hit thousands of people in Gofa Zone on Sunday and Monday and are the deadliest ever reported in Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous country.

“These people are at high risk of further landslides and need to be evacuated to safe zones immediately. Amongst these are at least 1,320 children under 5 years of age and 5,293 pregnant and lactating women,” the UN’s humanitarian agency OCHA said.

The UN agency also said that the government is finalizing an evacuation plan.

Residents and volunteers have been digging through the mud searching for survivors.

Photos from one site showed residents of Kencho Shacha Gozdi embracing after another day of excavations.

Ethiopia is prone to landslides during the rainy season, according to geological surveys. In parts of the country, including the southern region, floods triggered by heavy rains have displaced thousands of people in recent months, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said in a report last month.

At least 43 people died from floods and landslides last year, OCHA said in November.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

An 18-year-old man has been detained on suspicion of killing a former Ukrainian lawmaker, local authorities say, after her fatal shooting in the city of Lviv.

Iryna Farion, 60, died in hospital last Friday after she was shot in western Ukraine, the mayor of Lviv, Andriy Sadoviy, posted on Facebook.

A specialist team of Ukrainian security forces and criminal analysts tracked down the suspect on Thursday after 139 hours of investigative work, according to the country’s Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko. Authorities scoured about 100 hectares of forest and identified him using surveillance cameras, the minister said.

“We checked every corner of the shooter’s escape route,” Klymenko posted on Telegram. “Identifying and detaining the offender was a laborious process that required the highest professionalism, endurance and discipline to avoid making any mistakes. I thank the entire team.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky praised his country’s security forces.

“I am grateful to each and every one of them who added more facts to the picture of the crime every day and brought the full truth closer,” he said in a post on Telegram on Thursday.

A former nationalist parliamentarian and professor, Farion was known for her unfavorable attitude towards the Russian language, which is spoken in eastern Ukraine.

The Security Service of Ukraine launched a criminal investigation against the academic last year, after she published a social media post with a screenshot of a message from a pro-Ukrainian student in occupied Crimea, containing the name, surname and other personal data of the sender. That information became the basis for his persecution by the Russian special services.

During the investigation in November, Farion told authorities that she categorically rejected Russian-speaking members of the Armed Forces fighting against Russia’s full-scale invasion, according to Reuters, saying she could not call them Ukrainians.

Her statement triggered a wave of outrage among sections of Ukrainian society.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

As Venezuela girds for what could be a historic presidential election this weekend, one of the most important names in the race isn’t on the ballot: María Corina Machado – the woman who galvanized Venezuela’s opposition movement, and whom many voters see as the real challenger to socialist incumbent Nicolás Maduro.

Twelve years ago, Machado introduced herself to Venezuela’s political scene by confronting late President Hugo Chávez in Congress. Chévez, then at the peak of his power, was delivering his annual state of the nation address. Machado, then a fringe opposition politician who lost her primary race to challenge Chávez for the presidency, stood up and shouted back at the president on the podium.

Chávez dismissed her as an irritation, telling her, “An eagle doesn’t hunt a fly.”

On Sunday, once again, Machado will not be on the ballot – but not for lack of popularity. An avowed capitalist who has promised privatization of several state industries, Machado won more than 90% of the opposition primary vote last year, but has been barred from running for office following allegations that she didn’t include some food vouchers on her assets declaration. Machado has described the decision to bar her – upheld by Venezuela’s Supreme Court – as illegitimate, unjustified and unconstitutional.

The current opposition candidate for president, Edmundo González, is backed by Machado, who has campaigned on his behalf to mobilize voters.Experts say that their efforts may now pose the most significant threat to Maduro’s grip on power in years, as he fights to claim a third term.

Machado: We will win. We will succeed and we will bring everyone that has been forced to leave to come back. That’s my only plan.

Machado: I am committed to giving every single Venezuelan the opportunity to have the education they need to be independent and take hold of their future.

I do believe in public education, but I do believe that you have to create incentives so the public education can be as competitive and with the same degree of excellence that you have in private education.

You must have the rules of the market. It’s the system, and that works as well with the health system. I am convinced that education is a right.

Machado: As a society and as a state, you have the duty to guarantee that every single Venezuelan has access to it. But we have to change all the way around.

What do I promote? For instance, in the case of education, I believe in coupons that you can give directly to the parents so that parents can choose the kind of education they want for their children, either public or private. And this is a true revolution in Venezuela.

In the case of the energy sector or other, industries. Venezuela has a huge potential that requires enormous investments. That we don’t have the resources for. This country was sacked: we need to open markets.

And we need to create conditions that are so competitive, so attractive that international resources will be invested in a country, despite what happened in the previous regime.

One of the things we need to do is totally transform our judiciary system and come back from being the last place globally in rule of law to one of the most respected countries.

Machado: We need tens or hundreds of billions of dollars that could be invested in energy, not just oil and gas. Also, renewable resources.

The Venezuelan government doesn’t have the resources to do that. The resources we need to invest in infrastructure, in health, in education and so on.

We definitely need to open markets in order to take advantage of that huge potential and turn Venezuela into truly the energy hub of the Americas.

How the how the country will benefit from that? We will have fiscal flows, and other resources, mechanisms through which the state will get taxes.

But you don’t need to own the companies directly for the country to benefit from it.

If we don’t do that, the window of opportunity for oil and gas will close soon. And that will be unforgivable.

Machado: The regime will try to steal the election. But I have trust, full confidence in what the Venezuelan people voted for. We have built a platform to defend our votes; it’s unprecedented.

Today, Venezuelans realize that it is a personal responsibility. They don’t expect others to defend their vote. Right? They are going to do it themselves. And you will see people coming out with their families together, willing to stay as long as it takes.

This post appeared first on cnn.com