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A Secret Service investigation has confirmed security breakdowns that paved the way for an attempted assassination of Donald Trump, while also revealing new information — including that agents never directed local police to secure the roof of the building used by the gunman, according to two senior government officials familiar with the probe.

The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe an internal probe, said the investigation found that agents from Secret Service headquarters and the Pittsburgh field office had an alarmingly slipshod strategy to block a potential shooter from having a clear sight of the Republican nominee for president at the July 13 rally in Butler, Pa.

Agents securing the event had discussed possibly using heavy equipment and flags to create a visual impediment between the Agr International building and the rally stage, the officials said. But supervisors who arrived at Butler the day of the rally found cranes, trucks and flags were not deployed in a way that blocked the line of sight from that roof.

Thomas Matthew Crooks was able to climb atop the building and open fire on Trump, wounding his ear, critically injuring two other people and killing one spectator before being fatally shot by a Secret Service sniper.

The internal probe, known as a Mission Assurance investigation, is typically used to improve security practices.

The Butler investigation found significant weaknesses in the Secret Service’s standard communication system for events where political candidates appear. Unlike for appearances by the president or vice president, the Secret Service uses a command post separate from local police assigned to the event.

In Butler, the investigation found that:

  • A Secret Service radio room where agents were supposed to monitor potential threats and get reports of any problems had no way to receive real-time alerts from local police surveilling the crowd and outer perimeter.
  • Local police’s alert of a suspicious man at the rally before Trump’s arrival was not broadcast widely on Secret Service radio. Instead, local counter snipers were instructed to text a photo of the man — who was behaving oddly near the Agr building and carrying a range finder — to just one Secret Service official, limiting the agency’s awareness of a man who turned out to be the gunman.
  • Secret Service agents never heard local police radio traffic about trying to track down and then spotting that man after Trump began speaking.

The report also found the protective operations office of the Secret Service was slow to beef up security for Trump as he began campaigning, even after the agency obtained intelligence indicating that there was an Iranian state plot to kill or harm political candidates.

Secret Service acting director Ron Rowe testified to Congress at the end of July that he was embarrassed by the security lapses he had learned about in Butler and pledged the internal review would help strengthen the agency’s mission going forward.

The findings of that review may be released to the public next week, the government officials said. Rowe shared a summary in private briefings with the Senate Homeland Security Committee and a House investigative task force Thursday and said he has ordered a number of changes in security plans to address these gaps, one of the officials said.

For example, the agency now co-locates Secret Service agents and local police in the same command center for public appearances of the presidential candidates, the official said.

“I think the American people are going to be shocked, astonished, and appalled by what we will report to them about the failures by the Secret Service in this assassination attempt on the former president,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), a member of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, told Fox News after Thursday’s briefing.

The investigation corroborates several earlier reports from The Washington Post and other news organizations. The Post reported that police in Butler County warned the Secret Service in the hours before the rally that they would not be able to post a patrol car next to the Agr building, but Secret Service agents gave them no other instructions to secure the building. The Post also reported that the separation of the Secret Service radio room and local police command post meant local police concerns about Crooks were not widely shared.

Ahead of the public release of the report’s findings, several senior Secret Service agents are announcing their retirements. Mike Plati, assistant director of the Office of Protective Operations, resigned effective Friday, the Secret Service confirmed in a statement.

Also imminently retiring is John Buckley, a senior executive who helps oversee the office that decides what assets to devote to secure public events, according to an email sent to Secret Service staff Friday and reviewed by The Post. A senior agent in the Pittsburgh field office, which crafted the security plan, also has indicated his plans to retire, one of the officials familiar with the investigation said.

Kimberly Cheatle, a veteran agent, resigned as director of the agency days after the shooting amid bipartisan calls for her to step down. She had faced criticism for not providing details about the investigation in the immediate aftermath of the attack and for saying she wanted to wait until the 60-day review was completed.

In response to questions about the report, Rowe said in a statement that he has begun an agency-wide review to harden the protective bubble around the more than 40 government officials and family members the Secret Service protects. He warned that beefing up this security will cost money.

“The Secret Service cannot operate under the paradox of ‘zero fail mission’ while also making our special agents and uniformed division officers execute a very critical national security mission by doing more with less,” Rowe said.

Though the Secret Service took responsibility for the security failures soon after the Trump rally shooting, the aftermath was filled with bitter recriminations and confusion over whether the service or local law enforcement was responsible for allowing Crooks to access the roof just 150 yards from where Trump was speaking. The failures have drawn bipartisan condemnation from lawmakers investigating the matter.

The attack revealed years of conflicts between the former president and the Secret Service over the level of his protection. Trump’s aides have said the Secret Service rebuffed their efforts over the past several years to enhance his security but significantly expanded his protection and equipment after the assassination attempt, with far more snipers agents and closures around him.

Aides to Trump said last month that they had sometimes canceled or postponed events over concerns that security was insufficient.

Days before the Butler rally, the FBI arrested a Pakistani national for allegedly taking part in a plot on behalf of Iran to kill a politician or government official on U.S. soil, raising worries about Trump’s safety.

Trump and his team were told there was a security issue, but not that it was related to Iran, said a person familiar with the situation who also spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss information that has not been made public. Because of the threat, the campaign believed there was more security at the Butler rally and an event a few days earlier in Doral, Fla.

The FBI is leading the investigation into the July 13 shooting, but several other inquiries are pending, including in Congress and the Department of Homeland Security Office of Inspector General. A report is also due in early October by an independent panel commissioned by the DHS to examine the attack.

Josh Dawsey and Maria Sacchetti contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

Former president Donald Trump pitched yet another idea meant to win over hourly workers that surprised his own advisers: Stop taxing overtime.

“We will end all taxes on overtime. You know what that means?” he said Thursday during a campaign stop in Arizona. “That gives people more of an incentive to work. It gives the companies, it’s a lot easier to get the people. … It would be unbelievable. You’ll get a whole new workforce by doing no taxes on overtime.”

Though no details were provided, the proposal marks the Republican presidential nominee’s latest overture to low- and middle-income voters. Last month, he called on the federal government to carve out similar exemptions on tip earnings and on Social Security payments, regardless of income level.

On Friday, economists questioned how it would work.

“If you did not put any guardrails on this, it would be a huge revenue loser,” said Brendan Duke, senior director for economic policy at the left-leaning Center for American Progress. Such a shift, he said, could lead employers to classify as much of a worker’s wages as overtime as possible. “As long as you’re not violating the federal minimum wage or the state minimum wage, it’s off to the races.”

One of Trump’s economic advisers, Stephen Moore, said the announcement came as a surprise. To his knowledge, he said, the former president has not hammered out any of the details. “This is an idea that Trump came up with himself, just like not taxing tips,” Moore said. “It’s a way to help working-class folks. … If you’re putting in more than 40 hours, you should be rewarded for it and not taxed for it.”

As for how much it would cost, Moore said, “We’re going to start trying to determine that. … I don’t think it would be hugely expensive, but I don’t have a good estimate.”

Such a plan probably would require an act of Congress, and Moore said he believed Trump probably would favor a law in which overtime pay was exempt from income tax but still subject to payroll taxes, so that employees would still pay into Social Security and Medicare based on total wages including overtime pay.

While Trump’s Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, echoed his call to exempt tips from taxes, a spokesperson for her campaign blasted the no-tax-on-overtime proposal as Trump’s “latest snake oil sales pitch.”

“He is desperate and scrambling and saying whatever it takes to try to trick people into voting for him,” Joseph Costello said in a statement. “If he takes power again, he will only look out for himself and his billionaire buddies and their big corporations.”

The Fair Labor Standards Act lays out detailed rules for workers who must receive overtime pay — many hourly workers are included, while many other workers like executives, teachers, babysitters and some elder-care workers are not. The law goes into great and sometimes unexpected detail — movie theater workers, for instance, are not required to be paid overtime.

Once covered employees exceed 40 hours a week, the law requires their companies to pay them at least 1½ times their normal pay for any further hours they work. Democrats and Republicans have gone back and forth on which workers should qualify for overtime, with Trump favoring overtime guarantees for 4 million fewer workers during his presidency than a plan favored by former president Barack Obama.

Last year, Alabama became the first state to pass legislation exempting overtime wages from state income taxes. The bill was proposed by a Democrat and supported by Republicans, and the reprieve is currently in effect as an 18-month trial that ends next June. Similar measures have been introduced in several other statehouses.

Economists raised concerns that Trump’s proposal might distort how workers report their income. People who are currently salaried could press their employers to reclassify them as hourly workers, for instance. Employers could reduce their workers’ base pay but greatly raise their overtime pay.

“You can game the system here pretty easily,” said Rajesh Nayak, a former assistant secretary for policy at the Labor Department. “CEOs can get a base pay and get most of their pay in overtime, then suddenly they don’t have to pay taxes on that.”

Others wondered why an hourly worker should pay less in taxes than a salaried worker with comparable annual pay.

“Workers making the same income ought to be taxed the same way. It’s true whether it’s tips. It’s true whether it’s overtime. As policy, it fails the equity test. And I have no idea what it’s going to cost, but the cost will not be trivial,” said Howard Gleckman, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center. “You’re going to want to maximize your overtime pay because it’s tax-free and minimize your regular pay.”

While experts have not yet run the numbers on the concept of exempting all overtime from taxes, analysts have said that Trump’s no-tax-on-tips idea could cost the government at least $10 billion a year. Exempting Social Security could cost more than 10 times as much and accelerate the depletion of the Social Security Trust Fund.

Trump pitched the newest idea at his rally Thursday as a boon to deserving groups of workers.

“The people who work overtime are among the hardest-working citizens in our country, and for too long, no one in Washington has been looking out for them,” he said to cheers. “They’re police officers, nurses, factory workers, construction workers, truck drivers and machine operators. It’s time for the working man and woman to finally catch a break, and that’s what we’re doing, because this is a good one.”

He sought the crowd’s approval. “If you are an overtime worker, when you’re past 40 hours a week, think of that: Your overtime hours will be tax-free. Okay? Good? You’re going to have it.”

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

A former Arlington County Fire Department employee was arrested Friday in West Virginia on charges of assaulting police and rioting in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, accused of joining a charge that overran a key police line and led to the breach of the building, according to court records.

Brian Holmes, a West Virginia resident, was employed for about a year or more with the department, according to two department witnesses cited in an FBI arrest affidavit. On Jan. 6, wearing red sneakers, a gray Virginia Tech hoodie and hard-knuckle gloves, Holmes allegedly assaulted two officers guarding a stairway leading up from the lower West Terrace just as they were bowled over by Florida Proud Boys member Daniel Scott, court records said.

Prosecutors have said the breakthrough helped the mob access a level through which the Capitol was first breached 20 minutes later, forcing the evacuation of Congress and delaying a joint session meeting to certify Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory over Donald Trump.

“Holmes can be seen grabbing Officer CC as he was being pulled toward the crowd,” the arrest affidavit alleged. He appeared to taunt police and gestured rioters behind him to follow him, the FBI alleged.

“Y’all asked for this, you know that right,” the FBI quoted Holmes as saying. “Y’all gonna have a long day, y’all gonna have a long … day,” Holmes added, and “Are you ready to speak Chinese? … Because that’s what’s going to happen, that’s what’s going to happen if you let these [expletives] steal this election.”

Holmes was arrested in Martinsburg, W.Va., and appeared before a U.S. magistrate judge Friday on an arrest warrant issued Aug. 23 in D.C., according to court records.

In a written statement released by Holmes attorney Stanley Woodward, Holmes denied the allegations and said he had immediately advised his department supervisor of his presence at the rally, and resigned after being contacted by law enforcement “so as to avoid being a distraction from the Department’s critical mission. I am proud to have served more than six years among Arlington’s bravest.”

As of April 2023, Holmes was no longer employed by the Arlington Fire Department, a spokesman said. “When made aware of the allegations, the ACFD cooperated fully with investigators,” Capt. Nathaniel C. Hiner said in a statement, referring questions about the case to the FBI.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met at the White House on Friday amid rising tensions with Russia, reaffirming their support for Ukraine but declining to publicly address urgent questions over whether Biden will pave the way for Ukraine to use Western-made weapons to strike deeper inside Russia.

“The United States is committed to standing with you to help Ukraine as it defends against Russia’s onslaught of aggression,” Biden told Starmer at the outset of their meeting. “It’s clear that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin will not prevail in this war. The people of Ukraine will prevail.”

Starmer said it was vital that the two allied nations work in tandem. “I think the next few weeks and months could be crucial, very, very important, that we support Ukraine in this vital war of freedom,” the prime minister said.

But the two leaders said little about the biggest questions hanging over their meeting: whether American allies such as Britain might allow Ukraine to use their weapons to attack military targets deep inside Russia. Putin this week warned sharply against such a move, raising the stakes for Biden’s decision on whether to support it and whether at some point to allow U.S.-made weapons to be used the same way.

Hours before the meeting at the White House, Putin accused six British diplomats of spying and announced it had stripped them of accreditation. Putin also threatened that if Ukraine were to fire Western missiles into Russia, he would treat it as an attack by NATO and would respond accordingly, a posture that threatened to escalate the war.

“If this decision is made, it will mean nothing other than the direct involvement of NATO states, European states, in the war in Ukraine,” Putin said in a television interview late Thursday.

Vasily Nebenzya, the Russian ambassador to the United Nations, warned the U.N. Security Council on Friday about the use of Western weapons deep inside Russia. “The facts are that NATO will be a direct party to hostilities against a nuclear power,” Nebenzya said. “I think you shouldn’t forget about this and think about the consequences.”

From the outset of the war in February 2022, Biden has sought to balance his support for Ukraine with his desire to prevent the conflict from spiraling into a broader confrontation. With only four months left in office, Biden’s delicate decision-making on the war will increasingly play into a foreign policy legacy that is likely to revolve in large part on his handling of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

That task has meant dealing with a variety of foreign leaders. Starmer, who was elected prime minister only two months ago, arrived at the White House in a motorcade on Friday afternoon, and he and Biden entered the Oval Office for photos before meeting in the Blue Room for their extended strategy session.

Biden grew testy when a British reporter shouted a question, before the president could began speaking, about what he says in response to Putin’s threats. “I say, ‘You be quiet until I speak. Okay? That’s what I say,” he said.

Biden then welcomed Starmer to the White House and thanked him for his leadership in backing Ukraine. But he largely ignored shouted questions from reporters, saying at one point in response to a question about what he thinks of Putin, “I don’t think much about Vladimir Putin.”

The official White House summary of the meeting stressed the opposition of the American and British leaders to the support that some countries are giving Russia. “They expressed deep concern about Iran and North Korea’s provision of lethal weapons to Russia and … China’s support to Russia’s defense industrial base,” the statement said.

Russia has made threats against NATO when Western nations have ramped up their support for Ukraine, but he has generally failed to follow through. Starmer told British reporters ahead of his meeting with Biden that Ukraine had a right to defend itself against an illegal Russian invasion.

“We don’t seek any conflict with Russia. That’s not our intention in the slightest,” Starmer said. “But they started this conflict, and Ukraine’s got a right to self-defense.”

The British government also accused Russia of “a significant escalation” by imported ballistic weapons from Iran, saying that it was “bolstering Putin’s capability to continue his illegal war.”

Biden and Starmer were also expected to discuss tensions in the Middle East, focusing on attempts for a cease-fire deal and the release of hostages in Gaza. The British announced this month that they were suspending some arms exports to Israel, citing “a clear risk” that the arms might be used in “serious violation of international humanitarian law.’

Heading into the meeting, John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said that there would be little shift from the United States on allowing Ukraine to fire long-range missiles into Russia.

“There is no change to our view on the provision of long-range strike capabilities for Ukraine to use inside Russia, and I wouldn’t expect any sort of major announcement in that regard coming out of the discussions, certainly not on our side,” he said in a briefing with reporters.

Kirby declined to comment directly on whether the U.S. would signal support for allowing the British or French to authorize use of their weapons for such long-range attacks.

“We have, and will continue to have, meaningful conversations with our allies … about what we’re all doing to support Ukraine, about what can be done, what should be done, the pros and the cons of all these moves,” Kirby said.

Regarding Putin’s warnings about NATO, he said that “it’s hard to take anything coming out of Putin’s face at his word” but added that the U.S. carefully monitors any Russian threats.

“He starts brandishing the nuclear sword, yes, we constantly monitor that kind of activity,” Kirby said. “He obviously has proven capable of aggression. He has obviously proven capable of escalation over the last now going on three years.”

The meeting at the White House occurred after Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with British foreign secretary David Lammy on a recent trip to Kyiv, a joint visit in which they heard from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Zelensky has been pressing for months for Western leaders to lift restrictions against using long-range missiles to target military sites in Russia.

Biden was asked Tuesday whether the United States was ready to lift the restrictions. “We are working that out right now,” he said.

But administration officials said Friday that those reviews are still ongoing, with uncertainty over when or whether there might be any change in policy.

At the same time, some senior congressional leaders have been urging Biden to make such a shift, saying Ukraine needs a freer hand.

“In light of Putin’s increasingly horrific attacks on civilian targets, it’s time to lift restrictions on the use of long-range U.S.-provided weapons to allow Ukraine to reach high value Russian military targets,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) said in a recent statement. “On the expectation that the Ukrainian government has demonstrated how these new authorities fit within its broader campaign strategy, I hope that the Biden Administration will swiftly grant these permissions to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.”

Karen DeYoung and Missy Ryan contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

Numerous companies are making strides within their respective sectors, but, unless you follow the sector closely, you might not be aware of them. That’s what makes StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) reports so helpful.

If you’ve checked your SCTR reports regularly, you might have noticed Insmed (INSM) appear at or near the top over the last three months.

FIGURE 1. DAILY SCTR REPORTS SHOW INSM IN THE OF THE TOP-UP, LARGE-CAP STOCKS.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Insmed (INSM) is a biotech company that has had a near-perfect SCTR score of 99.9 since the end of May.

A SCTR (pronounced scooter) score above 90 is exceedingly bullish, as it signals technical strength across multiple technical indicators and timeframes. Sustaining a score well above 90 for months tells you that something tremendous is happening with the company and its stock.

But if you don’t follow biotech, you’re probably wondering, “What is Insmed? Why haven’t I heard of it? Why is it soaring now? Where was it before it showed up on the SCTR report’s top spot?”

In a Nutshell, Here’s What’s Driving INSM

Insmed’s stock is popping thanks to positive results from a late-stage study of its antibiotic drug Arikayce, developed for treating a rare, severe lung infection. The study’s success boosts hopes for broader FDA approval, driving INSM’s sharp breakaway gap to all-time highs.

Before this, however, what did INSM’s performance look like?

Three-Year Lookback at INSM’s Performance

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF INSM. The recent tests catapulted INSM to all-time highs.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Take note of the following points:

  • The breakaway gap (see orange short-term downsloping trend line) from $22 to $49.53 marked a 125% spike.
  • While INSM’s SCTR score has exceeded the 90 line four times in the last three years (see green circles), notice how it barely outperformed, and largely underperformed, its broader industry, represented by the Dow Jones U.S. Biotechnology Index ($DJUSBT).
  • The latest break above the 90 line looks flat-out bullish (see green rectangle), aligning with a 171% outperformance of its industry.

Does this make INSM a strong candidate for a long position? To explore that further, let’s shift to a daily chart.

Should You Go Long INSM?

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF INSM. Note the declining momentum and topping formation.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Here are the main things to keep an eye on:

  • INSM looks to be forming a double top; still, market sentiment reacting to INSM’s latest testing news and developments moving forth may defy (bearish) technical indications.
  • The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) shows that buying pressure is fading, matching up with the Relative Strength Index’s (RSI’s) bearish divergence signal from overbought levels.
  • Despite looking toppy, for INSM’s near-term uptrend to continue, you’d want to see it break above resistance at its all-time level of $80.53 while remaining above its most recent swing low at the $70 range.
  • If it falls below the $70 range, the next lines of support can be at the previous swing lows of $67.20 and $61.50.

Warning: A deeper correction may indicate that something is off between the technical reading and the market’s reaction to the company’s news or product development.

If INSM falls below $61.50, the long-term uptrend could still hold despite invalidating the short-term trend. Be extra careful, though! INSM might slide to $45–$52, hitting key Fibonacci retracement levels, but a dip that low could mean something big has changed with INSM’s product development, and the price action may be reflecting the market’s response to these (bearish) developments.

Closing Bell

StockCharts’ SCTR Reports spotlight hidden stock opportunities that might not have crossed your radar. Insmed is a great example. It’s been riding high on positive testing news, but its technicals are flashing warning signs. If you want to follow INSM’s price action, add it to one of your StockCharts ChartLists. If not, be sure to use SCTR daily to find other (potentially hidden) opportunities for your next trade.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Tech Rallies, But Remains Inside the Lagging Quadrant

A quick look at the Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors reveals that the Technology sector is still the main driving force for the market. Technology now makes up more than 30% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500, so it significantly influences the price (movement) of the S&P 500 index.

On this weekly RRG above, the XLK tail can be seen heading further into the lagging quadrant, together with XLC and XLE.

After dipping to the 540 area at the end of last week, the market has recovered some of that ground so far this week. This move has now established the area around 540 as support, while overhead resistance still remains intact around 565. A break of either level will very likely ignite an acceleration in the direction of the break.

On the weekly RRG, this move has had no material impact so far.

The Daily RRG Shows Some Improvement

Only when zooming in on the daily Relative Rotation Graph can we see this week’s improvement.

What is interesting to see on this daily RRG is that the same three sectors that are inside the lagging quadrant on the weekly RRG are also inside the lagging quadrant on this daily RRG. XLC and XLE clearly confirm their relative downtrends by rotating at a negative RRG-Heading.

The uptick in tech stocks so far this week has caused an improvement in relative momentum, but not (yet) in relative strength.

But It’s Based On a Narrow Foundation

Zooming in on the technology sector members and using the table below to examine their performance over the last five trading days, we find the RRG provides some insight into where this jump in performance is coming from.

With XLK up 5% so far this week, only 9 out of the 50 stocks in this group outperform SPY. The other 41 are below XLK. With NVDA being one of the top-ranking stocks, this group is already pulling performance up by its market capitalization, especially because MSFT, the other big name inside XLK, is only 0.5% below XLK.

Therefore, the foundation of this tech rally so far is very narrow. Again.

Based on these observations, I will judge the current tech rally as a recovery within an established relative downtrend.

Defensives Pushing Into Leading RRG Quadrant

On the opposite side of the spectrum, three sectors seem very well positioned for further outperformance. XLV (Health Care), XLF (Financials), and XLP (Consumer Staples) have all just entered the leading quadrant, which means a turnover from a relative downtrend into a relative uptrend against SPY. All three are rotating at a positive RRG-Heading, and all three are showing an increasing RRG-Velocity.

Looking at their individual charts combined with relative strength and their RRG-Lines, one sector stands out with a setup we have seen before.

Consumer Staples

At the end of 2021, the consumer staples sector ended a prolonged period of underperformance (20 months), marked by the first vertical dashed line in November 2021, when the RS-Line broke above a falling resistance line. By then, the JdK RS-Momentum line had already crossed above the 100 level, pushing the XLP tail into the improving quadrant.

A few weeks later, the JdK RS-Ratio line also crossed above 100, and the tail moved into leading. Shortly after that move, the market started to drop, and XLP started to serve its role as a defensive sector, outperforming SPY for more than a year while the market (SPY) dropped 20%.

Fast Forward to the Present

The RS-line of XLP has broken above its falling resistance after a downtrend that started at the end of 2022, so almost two years ago — 21 months, to be exact. RS-Momentum rose above 100 a few weeks after that event, and this week, RS-Ratio also crossed above 100, pushing the XLP tail into the leading quadrant.

The price moves on the SPY chart are almost identical on both occasions. There is a peak when the RS line crosses upward, and a second peak shortly after the RS-ratio line crosses above 100.

Given the defensive nature of the Staples sector and the analogy that seems to be playing out at the moment, I am keeping my cautious/careful approach to the markets.

RISK > POTENTIAL REWARD

#StayAlert, –Julius


For decades, life choices were bleak for many in El Salvador: Leave or die. Dubbed the “murder capital of the world,” there was an average of a homicide an hour in early 2016, in this country of just 6 million people — two million fewer than call New York City home. Gang warfare drove an exodus of Salvadorans, mostly north to the US. But now, the security situation is so different that people are returning, even after building good new lives over decades in the US.

Deported, and now grateful

When Victor Bolaños and his wife, Blanca, lost their asylum case in a US immigration court, their ‘American dream’ came crashing down. When they agreed to accept a voluntary departure order, the couple knew they had to leave behind the life they had been building for over 15 years in Denver and return to their native El Salvador and the conditions that had made them flee.

“We came back 6 years ago, and everything was unsafe,” Victor recalls, seated in the modest home the couple now shares in the capital, San Salvador. At 65, his voice carries the weight of what they faced upon their return in 2018. “When we came back the situation seemed difficult because of the insecurity, lots of robberies, lots of gangs.”

But a couple of years after their return, something unexpected happened. The relentless daily violence eased, and streets began to calm. The suffocating fear that had defined daily life started to fade.

El Salvador, once synonymous with violence and waves of emigration, saw a dramatic drop in crime. For many citizens, this shift offered more than just safety — it offered much needed hope. The world, too, took notice. Suddenly, the small Central American nation seemed to be reinventing itself under Bukele, who was elected President in 2019 at the age of 37. When his New Ideas party later took control of Congress, it was easier for rules to be bent or broken. Bukele won re-election, even though the country’s constitution had barred anyone standing for a second term. A “temporary” state of emergency granting authoritarian powers of detention is now more than two years old. Human Rights Watch says that even children are being caught up in “severe human rights violations.”

Yet in San Salvador, Blanca sits in her living room, carefully crafting handmade jewelry. “Now, one feels safe, freedom is felt in our country,” she says.

She and her husband, Victor, say the improved security has allowed them to start a small jewelry business from their home, something that once seemed impossible. “Now you can have a business, if you look, there are entrepreneurs everywhere in the country,” Blanca says, reflecting on how, not long ago, gang extortion would have crippled any such venture.

For decades, people from Central America, particularly from the Northern Triangle of El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala, have fled violence and insecurity, seeking protection and opportunity in the US. But new data from US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reveals a surprising trend — fewer Salvadorans are now heading north.

In 2022, CBP recorded more than 97,000 encounters with Salvadoran citizens at the Southern Border. By 2023, that number fell to just over 61,000, and 2024 is on track for an additional decline compared to 2023.

While these numbers may appear promising, the root causes of migration remain complex.  Many Salvadorans still leave their country due to economic hardship and lack of opportunity. Although El Salvador’s economy has shown slow, steady growth since Bukele took office, according to the World Bank, the nation still struggles to provide sufficient opportunities for its citizens.

Leaving Houston to build a beach resort

For the past 27 years, Diego Morales has built a life far from home. The 48-year-old real estate investor, husband, and father of three left El Salvador in 1997, chasing the safety, stability, and opportunity that the US had to offer. The idea of returning had never crossed his mind — until the grim stories of violence that had haunted his homeland for so many years were replaced by tales of newfound safety.

Diego’s childhood was marred by a constant sense of danger.  “I’d wake up, go to school and find dead people on the street,” he recalls, his voice bearing the burden of the painful memories as he sits inside his well-kept, suburban Houston home.

But today, El Salvador is no longer the country he fled. “Now it’s safe and many people are going back,” Diego says, his words a reflection of the optimism spreading among Salvadorans and others abroad.

The country’s reputation has dramatically shifted. Once known for violence, El Salvador is now attracting waves of investors. “Many people, even Americans … we have friends from Florida, from Austin, from Hawaii, looking to buy (property),” he says, a sign of just how far the nation has come.

Diego himself is preparing for a return to the land he once left behind. He has already invested in Tamanique, his hometown about an hour’s drive from the capital, where he built a beach resort that he now runs remotely.

Along the Salvadoran coastline, you can find beach towns like El Tunco, El Zonte, and La Libertad buzzing with new construction, capturing the attention of tourists and real estate developers eager to capitalize on the country’s rebirth. Cliffs that were once gang lookouts are now being considered scenic locations for hotels.

“As soon as President Bukele brought security to this country, everything went up (in value),” Diego says, adding that land that cost around $100,000 five years ago is now going for ten times that price.

And the Salvadoran dream is not just his — his 23-year-old son, Jairo, a natural-born US citizen also plans to follow in his father’s footsteps. “We’ve had conversations… it’s already starting,” Jairo says, his eyes lit with the promise of returning to his roots.

El Salvador’s government is courting those who left with a program of tax exemptions on belongings and vehicles for citizens who return home. Since 2022, nearly 19,000 Salvadorans have moved back under this initiative, according to government figures.

‘No mercy’ for gang members

A decade or so ago gangs like MS-13 and Barrio 18 terrorized communities, extorting businesses and waging brutal turf wars over control of neighborhoods, and El Salvador was the most violent nation in the Western Hemisphere, according to InSight Crime.

But something extraordinary has happened since then. By 2022, the number of murders began to drop dramatically, and the next year there were 154 homicides — a staggering 97.7% decrease compared to 2015, according to government figures. Bukele even tweeted that his country’s homicide rate was the lowest in all the Americas.

The sharp decline followed Bukele bringing in emergency measures giving police the power to detain suspects without charges for up to 15 days and deploying the military across the nation. The new rules, which are still in effect, allowed an unprecedented crackdown on gang activity, with more than 80,000 people detained since the state of emergency began in March 2022.

Central to this effort is the newly constructed “Terrorist Confinement Center,” or Cecot, a massive prison complex with the capacity to hold up to 40,000 inmates. The maximum-security prison currently holds 14,000 gang members — all accused of having murdered at least one person. Images from Cecot show tattooed men with their heads shaved in a warehouse-sized concrete room filled with metal bunks, or sitting in tight rows on the ground, wearing nothing but white shorts, their heads bowed and hands behind their backs. And, according to Salvadoran authorities, those sent to Cecot will never be released.

Villatoro’s words echo the brutal reality El Salvador has faced for years. He claims that gang members were required to kill at least one person as part of their initiation into groups like MS-13 or Barrio 18.

“Imagine a serial killer in your state, in your community, being released by a judge, how would you feel as a citizen?” he asks. “We don’t have facts that someone can change the mind of a serial killer, and we have more than 40,000 in El Salvador.”

The government’s hardline approach was not spontaneous; it was meticulously planned. Villatoro and members of Bukele’s cabinet had begun studying the gangs as early as 2017.

“Before you start a war, you have to know your enemy,” he explained.

While the government’s relentless campaign has been praised by many for restoring peace, it has also attracted significant criticism. Human rights groups have accused the Bukele administration of widespread abuses in its battle against the gangs. Villatoro, however, dismisses these claims, asserting that the focus should be on the victims, not the criminals.

“What about the society, the good citizens that you have in the country … Where were (these human rights groups) when we lost 30 Salvadorans in our country a day?” he asks pointedly.

Bukele himself has been unflinching in his rhetoric. In 2022, he famously challenged human rights advocates, telling them to “take” the gang members if they cared so much. “Come pick them up — we’ll give them to you, two for the price of one,” he declared.

The president’s iron-fist approach to security has earned him praise from some US conservatives, who have openly applauded Bukele’s tactics. However, at this year’s Republican National Convention, former US President Donald Trump took an unexpected swipe at Bukele when addressing the country’s newfound safety.

“In El Salvador, murders are down 70 percent. Why are they down? They’re down because they’re sending their murderers to the United States of America,” Trump claimed, offering no evidence to support his statement.

“No,” Villatoro replied. “The problem with that, you (Trump) don’t have facts, you don’t have evidence, but instead, we have evidence of where we put our terrorists,” the minister said, referring to Cecot, the massive prison where thousands of gang members are held

In other detention centers, lower-ranking gang members and other criminals are tasked with fixing what the gangs broke and erasing their presence. Some inmates are sent to rebuild homes while others smash tombstones commemorating underworld leaders.

Jailed ‘for having long hair and tattoos’

In early 2024, Juan Carlos Cornejo found himself swept up in Bukele’s mass arrests after an anonymous call to the police accused him of “illicit association.” Hours later, he was in jail, confused and terrified.

Juan Carlos believes he was targeted simply because of how he looked.

“I was accused of illicit association, but I have nothing to do with that. I like music, rock, so my appearance was different. I had long hair,” he said from his dimly lit, mosquito-ridden home in Santa Ana, a city about 35 miles from the capital. “I have tattoos, but these are artistic expressions,” he said, his frustration palpable.

“There was no investigation, nothing,” he claims.

Juan Carlos was in prison for five long months. Before his detention, he had been working as a veterinary assistant, treating sick or injured pets, and he insists he had never been arrested before.

His release came only after Socorro Jurídico Humanitario (SJH), a group dedicated to providing legal counsel in cases of human rights violations, successfully filed a writ of habeas corpus on his behalf. But Juan Carlos’ story is far from unique. According to SJH, between 33,000 and 35,000 people have been “detained in an arbitrary manner without any justification” since the state of emergency began.

Despite widespread criticism of these tactics, the Bukele government stands firm. Officials argue that these measures — though harsh — are done lawfully and are necessary to secure the country’s future. And they highlight efforts to rehabilitate tens of thousands of inmates convicted of lesser crimes.

Armed soldiers on the streets — and thanked

Critics argue that Salvadorans have traded freedom for security, but the people we met say they have never felt so free. There’s the mother laughing as she takes her skipping toddler to the park, not afraid of getting caught in a gun battle or stumbling over a corpse or having to pay the gang extortion “rent” to simply enter her own neighborhood. There’s the father, no longer worried his son will be recruited by gangs. Unlike in places like Cuba or China, where residents can seem nervous to criticize repressive regimes, in El Salvador the optimism appears real.

Teresa Lilian Gutierrez is caught in the middle, and her experience shows the many complexities of life in El Salvador today.

“Now it’s safe, it’s calm,” she told us on a street in La Campanera, once among the most dangerous neighborhoods in San Salvador. “Before no one would visit, not even family.”

But her son who helped her financially is not able to visit, she said.

“He’s been detained for two years in Mariona (prison). He is not a gang member, he was taken in the state of emergency,” she said, showing pictures of her son working as a cashier in a restaurant.

“I ask the government to get him out, please … I spoke to the lawyer last year because they were going to release him, but she said no, they’re not going to give him to me,” she said.

President Bukele enjoys one of the highest approval ratings in Latin America, a sentiment echoed by the people we meet while with the Salvadoran army touring a once gang-infested area outside San Salvador.

Armored cars and uniformed soldiers are no longer terrifying reasons to run but chances for curious children to ask questions or for supporters to grab a selfie.

“It was so bad before, you couldn’t go anywhere,” one woman says, beaming as she snaps a picture with Defense Minister René Merino, who has become a symbol of the government’s hardline security strategy. A few years ago, no one in this area would have looked members of the police or army in the eye, Merino said, but now it’s all changed. Moments later, another resident steps forward, and thanks the minister and poses for a photo, apologizing for interrupting our interview.  In what feels more like a victory parade  than a law enforcement patrol, we stop dozens of times over the course of a couple hours as residents excitedly relay their gratitude.

But the looming question is: what happens after 2029, when Bukele’s term comes to an end? In a recent interview, the president declared he would not seek a third term, leaving many to wonder about the future.

For some, like Blanca Bolaños, the answer is already clear. “I voted for Nayib this time, and the last, and if he runs again, I will vote for him,” she says with unwavering conviction.

As the country grapples with its transformation, Bukele’s legacy and controversial tactics will be tested. Whether El Salvador’s newfound stability endures or falters, only time will tell. But for now, among those who say their lives have been changed, there is little doubt: they believe in Bukele, and they would follow him again.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters Thursday that allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike inside Russia would be seen by Moscow as NATO’s direct entry into the war.

“This will mean that NATO countries – the United States and European countries – are at war with Russia. And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the essence of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us,” he said.

According to the Russian president, “the Ukrainian army is not capable of using cutting-edge high-precision long-range systems supplied by the West” without Western assistance in targeting.

The United States already does provide intelligence to Ukraine, and has previously assisted in the targeting, although not with the long-range systems currently being considered.

According to Center for New American Security Senior Fellow Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, there may also be other intelligence resources available to Ukrainian forces, including commercial satellite imagery, depending on the target.

In a press conference on Thursday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated that, as part of continuing military assistance to Ukraine, the United States provides intelligence to Ukrainian forces, but declined to answer whether the US would increase its intelligence sharing.

The United States first provided Ukraine with long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles, which have a maximum range of approxmiately 186 miles, in October of 2023. Kyiv has long advocated its backers to allow the use of weapons systems that would provide a longer reach inside Russian territory.

Michael Callahan, Natasha Bertrand, and Oren Liebermann contributed reporting.

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The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said Brigadier General Yossi Sariel, who led its 8200 intelligence unit, has informed them he will “conclude his role in the near future.”

The country’s public broadcaster Kan and several other media outlets have published excerpts of his resignation letter stating he feels personally responsible for not preventing Hamas from launching the deadliest attack on Jews since the Holocaust.

“On October 7th at 06:29 I did not fulfill the task as I expected of myself, those at my command and commanders expected me and the citizens of the state I love so much,” the letter said, according to Kan.

“Today, in accordance with the state of the war, the processes of the gathering ranks and the building of the unit’s resilience, and after the completion of the initial investigative processes, I request to fulfill my personal responsibility as the commander of the unit on October 7 and at a time to be determined by my commanders to pass the baton to the next shift,” Kan reported Thursday.

Shortly after the attack, a number of top defense and security officials came forward to take responsibility, to some extent, for missteps that led to Hamas’ attack on Israel, which left 1,200 people dead and another 250 taken hostage.

On October 16, the head of Israel’s domestic security agency, Shin Bet, tasked with combating terrorism, wrote a statement saying: “The responsibility is on me.”

“Despite a series of actions we carried out, we weren’t able to create a sufficient warning that would allow the attack to be thwarted,” Shin Bet chief Ronan Bar said.

Later that month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also received sharp public criticism after he accused security chiefs in a later-deleted social media post of failing to warn him about the impending attack.

In a May interview with Dr. Phil McGraw on the “Dr. Phil Primetime” show, Netanyahu admitted there were political and military failures. “The government’s first responsibility is to protect the people. That’s the ultimate enveloping responsibility. People weren’t protected. We have to admit that,” Netanyahu told Dr. Phil.

When asked if he held himself to that standard and failed in some way he added, “I hold myself and everyone on this. I think we have to examine how it happened. What was the intelligence failure?”

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South Korea has for decades been known as the world’s largest “baby exporter” – sending hundreds of thousands of children overseas after the country was ravaged by war and many mothers left destitute.

Many of those adopted children, now adults scattered across the globe and trying to trace their origins, have accused agencies of corruption and malpractice, including in some cases forcibly removing them from their mothers.

A report released earlier this week by a Korean government commission supports those claims and uncovers new evidence on the coercive methods used to force mothers to give up their children.

The Truth and Reconciliation Commission, tasked in 2022 with investigating the claims, found that more than a dozen babies in several government-funded care facilities in the 1980s had been forcibly taken to adoption agencies, sometimes “on the day of birth or the next day.”

It examined three care facilities in the cities of Daegu and Sejong where, in 1985 and 1986, 20 children in total were transferred to adoption agencies. Most of those children were adopted overseas in the United States, Australia, Norway and Denmark.

The commission is still investigating cases allegedly involving falsified paperwork. An interim report is expected to publish later this year.

Searching for their roots

More than 200,000 South Korean children have been adopted overseas since the 1950s following World War II and the Korean War, according to authorities. Many of those children were adopted by families in the US and Europe.

While adoptions continue today, the trend has been declining since the 2010s after South Korea amended its adoption laws in an effort to address systematic issues and reduce the number of children adopted overseas.

For a generation of adoptees who have grown up in often homogenous, majority-White populations, some say they feel both disconnected from their Korean roots and unable to fit in. It’s what prompted a search for their biological families.

Some of those adoptees say they have mixed emotions over the commission’s findings, feeling both horror and hope that the investigation will shed light on what many long suspected.

“It’s truly terrifying to hear how systemic these issues were, but I wouldn’t say it’s necessarily surprising,” said Susanné Seong-eun Bergsten, who was adopted from South Korea and grew up in Sweden.

Bergsten’s biological family found her when she was a young adult, and while there was no sign that her paperwork was falsified, she says she can understand the struggles having been involved in advocacy for Korean adoptees.

“Us adoptees, we’re all kind of told, these adoptions are for our own good and we should all feel grateful for escaping poverty,” she said, calling the reality “far more complex.”

“Our adoption papers often lack important information which could give us more context for adoption, like our cultural background, stigma, and the individual struggles that our parents faced in the post-war era,” she said.

“[It] validates what Korean adoptees have known for decades within our community: The narrative that Korean mothers chose of their own volition to relinquish their children is, in all too many cases, a fiction,” he said.

While both Zastrow and Bergsten said it marked a promising step in the right direction, Bergsten urged the government to continue taking accountability and offer reparations to adoptees and their families.

“Adoption touches every level of Korean society, every economic class,” said Zastrow. “There is still much about Korean adoption that has not been formally acknowledged.”

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