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The S&P 500 index ($SPX) is a capitalization-weighted stock index. Many lesser capitalization blue-chip stocks that compose these 500 companies have been performance laggards. Though smaller companies in the index, these corporations are among the bluest of the blue-chip stocks. These prestigious corporations have been overshadowed by the immense mega-capitalization companies that have received attention from institutional and individual investors. For the most part, these other and forgotten stocks have better valuations and dividend yields as they have been somewhat neglected by Wall Street.

The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) provides a perspective highlighting these smaller blue-chip stocks in the index. Does this equal-weighted index reveal a market story obscured by the mega-cap dominated S&P 500 index?

S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), Point & Figure Chart Study

S&P 500 Equal Weighted ETF (RSP) PnF Chart Notes:

  • In 2022, an Accumulation Structure began to form.
  • Markup began in 2023 and still continues.
  • Three Horizontal PnF counts are estimated here.
  • Two partial counts confirm each other in the $186 price zone.
  • The entire width of the structure counts to $260.

NASDAQ 100 Index ($NDX) with Relative Strength to the S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP)

This daily chart of the NASDAQ 100 Index ($NDX) illustrates the start and end of the second-quarter rally. A final ThrowOver of the channel line clocks in just as the quarter is ending and the third quarter is beginning. A sudden and sharp reversal is evidence of the rotation away from this mega-cap dominated index and into the broad list of blue chip stocks in the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index. The Relative Strength line reveals the shift.

Broad market rotations can destabilize markets as funds flow away from prior leadership toward new investment themes. Watch for emerging leadership from industry groups and stocks while markets are generally correcting. Point & Figure horizontal counts can help greatly with price projection estimates. However, we must remember that PnF cannot estimate the time needed to reach potential price objectives.

All the Best,

Bruce

@rdwyckoff

Prior Blog Notes: At the end of June, I published a NASDAQ 100 PnF chart study as it was reaching price objectives. The price of the objective range was 19,600 / 20,800. On July 10th the $NDX peaked at 20,690.97, just as the new quarter was beginning. (click here to view the chart study). 

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. 

Wyckoff Resources:

Additional Wyckoff Resources (Click Here)

Wyckoff Market Discussion (Click Here)

Last week, there was a noticeable change in investor sentiment. We have so much data coming out this week, and much will rest on how the trading week ends. The S&P 500 index ($SPX) broke the uptrend, and on Tuesday, it closed at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

However, after the close, Microsoft (MSFT) reported earnings. The stock price dropped over 30% in after-hours trading. Although the stock recovered some of those losses, it’s possible that other stocks that are reporting earnings this week—Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Apple, Inc. (AAPL), and Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)—could add downside pressure in the next few days.

Will Investors Buy the Dip or Will There Be More selling?

There’s no telling how the market will react to the rest of the big tech earnings. But don’t forget that in addition to these earnings there’s the Fed meeting on Wednesday and the July jobs report that will drop on Friday.

If investors continue to sell equities, where will they invest their cash? For a while, the narrative was that there was rotation into small-cap stocks. But looking at the daily chart of the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) below, the upside movement seems to be taking a breather.

CHART 1. ARE SMALL-CAP STOCKS SHOWING SIGNS OF EXHAUSTION? While IWM is trading above its 10-day exponential moving average (EMA), the price action in the last two days indicates more selling pressure. Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

So, maybe the rotation is out of equities and into a “flight to safety” asset class, such as precious metals and bonds. This necessitates pulling up a chart of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV). You can see in both charts that there was a rally, but not necessarily one with huge momentum.

CHART 2. GOLD AND SILVER SAW SOME UPSIDE MOVEMENT. GLD traded above its 20-day SMA, but SLV still has some catching up to do before the price move can be declared an uptrend. Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.So, if there’s no gold or silver rush, are investors flocking to bonds? It’s worth looking at the weekly chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). After a steady downtrend, bond prices are trying to break out of a downtrend. The downtrend line (blue dashed line) is broken, TLT is trading above its 10-week exponential moving average (EMA), and it looks like a consolidation pattern is forming. A clear breakout above this consolidation could be a reason to give bonds some love. Bonds could make a big move soon.

CHART 3. ARE BONDS GETTING READY TO BREAK OUT? It’s hard to say, especially ahead of a FOMC meeting. Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

Looking at the above charts, it appears that traders are waiting for the rest of the week’s data to be released. Remember, this is a weak seasonality period, so it could be some time before we can see a clear directional move in any asset class. 

Volatility is also up. The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) is above 17, which is relatively high after a long period between 12 and 15.

Closing Position

Tomorrow, the world will hear from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The stock market has priced in an interest rate cut in September. Will he hint at more rate cuts this year, or will he continue to focus on the state of the US economy as he usually does? Stay tuned!



Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Israel says it has launched a strike in Beirut, Lebanon, targeting a Hezbollah commander that it blamed for a deadly attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

At least one person was killed and several others injured in the strike, according to Lebanese state news agency NNA. The injured, including some with serious wounds, have been taken to nearby hospitals.

Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said “Hezbollah crossed the red line” in a social media post minutes after the Israeli military claimed responsibility for the strike on Tuesday.

Israel’s national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said in a separate post on his official X account that “every dog shall have his day.”

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it had “carried out a targeted strike in Beirut, on the commander responsible for the murder of the children in Majdal Shams and the killing of numerous additional Israeli civilians.”

It did not provide details about how the strike was carried out.

An Israeli official identified the target of the strike as Fu’ad Shukr, also known as al-Hajj Mohsin. Shukr is a senior adviser to Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, according to the US government website. He serves in the highest military rank of the Iranian-backed militant group.

Israel wanted to send “a very strong message” with tonight’s strike, according to a senior Israeli official, but hopes to avoid further escalation.

The Iranian Embassy in Lebanon denounced the Israeli strike on Beirut, calling it “cowardly and sinful Israeli aggression” that “claimed the lives of a number of martyrs and wounded,” in a post on X.

NNA said the attack was conducted by a drone that fired three missiles.

According to Hezbollah-run Al Manar TV agency, the strike hit the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital, a populous area that is a stronghold of the militant group.

Video from Reuters showed the aftermath of the strike in southern Beirut. Emergency responders and bystanders can be seen walking in streets covered in rubble, bricks and other debris. Multiple vehicles parked on one street appear to have been damaged by falling debris from surrounding buildings.

Israel vowed earlier this week that Hezbollah would “pay the price” for a rocket attack on a soccer field that killed 12 children and injured 44 people in the town of Majdal Shams near the Syrian and Lebanese borders.

Israel and the United States have said the rocket was fired by Hezbollah forces in Lebanon. Hezbollah denied responsibility for the strike but did say it had fired at Israeli military targets in the area.

A new close-up video emerged Tuesday showing the moment the football pitch was struck. It shows children playing in a small park next to the pitch as sirens start to blare. The youngsters appear anxious but do not initially seek shelter.

Then the sound of the incoming rocket can be heard, quickly becoming deafening, before it smashes into the ground just meters from the camera and appearing to knock the girl holding the phone to the ground. For a split second, the camera captures a huge fireball triggered by the blast.

Children are heard screaming before they run to shelter behind a wall, along with others. “Mom! Mom!” she screams as she runs to safety, as an alarm, perhaps set off by the blast, can be heard. The video ends about 30 seconds after the rocket struck.

Fears of all-out war

The attack Saturday sparked fears that an all-out war could envelop the region.

Israel informed the United States before carrying out the strike, according to a source familiar with the matter. The source said the heads up was conveyed through security channels, but did not say when it was given.

The last time Israel struck the Lebanese capital was in January, when it killed a senior figure from Hamas, the Palestinian militant group it has been warring with in Gaza since the October 7 attacks. It was a precise strike that took out an office in a building and caused little other damage.

Tuesday’s attack is of a different caliber, marking the largest Israeli escalation with the powerful Lebanese militant group since October 8.

Previously, months of tit-for-tat attacks between Israel and Hezbollah had largely been confined to areas near the border between Lebanon and Israel.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Nollywood, Nigeria’s vibrant film industry, is setting its sights on achieving global recognition akin to the meteoric rise of Afrobeats.

As the third-largest film industry in the world by number of films produced annually, Nollywood has long been a significant cultural force within Africa.

The industry’s roots date back to the early 1990s, when enterprising filmmakers began producing low-budget, direct-to-video movies that resonated deeply with local audiences.

Over the years, Nollywood has evolved, embracing higher production values and more diverse narratives, capturing the attention of global audiences and streaming giants like Netflix and Amazon.

Global aspirations

Today, Nollywood is not just about entertainment; it’s about cultural representation and storytelling on a grand scale. “It’s time for the world to receive our stories and content,” says Toyosi Etim-Effiong, a key figure in the industry and founder of That Good Media talent management agency.

The global success of Afrobeats, with artists like Burna Boy, Wizkid and Davido achieving international acclaim, serves as both inspiration and a blueprint for Nollywood, says Ettim-Effiong, who has taken a delegation of Nollywood stars to the Essence Film Festival for the past three years.

Similarly, Nollywood aims to captivate global audiences, not just with entertainment but also by sharing African culture and stories on a larger scale, Etim-Effiong adds.

Nollywood at the Essence Film Festival

At the Essence Film Festival, a recent addition to the wider festival celebrating Black culture and achievements, Nollywood stars and stakeholders discussed their vision for international expansion.

The festival provided a prominent platform for Nollywood to showcase its potential and engage in meaningful dialogues about the industry’s future.

“It’s important to me that Nigerian and African stories are told in a way that is authentic to us,” Etim-Effiong says. “I facilitate opportunities like this where our stories, content, and key players can get a seat at the table … that way the rest of the world gets to know about us and we get to know how similar we are (to the rest of the world). Nollywood is open for partnerships.”

Veteran Nollywood stars like Omotola Jalade-Ekeinde and Uche Jombo, along with new talents like child star Simisola Gbadamosi and Nollywood heartthrob Eso Dike, took part in a panel on the importance of bridging cultures through storytelling.

Jalade-Ekeinde, a member of the Academy, the Oscars awards voting body, emphasized the importance of portraying African realities.

“We are telling our stories and defining how we want to be seen,” she said. “I’ve been advocating for our voices to be heard and respected. It’s time for change.”

Gbadamosi, 13, fresh from her role in Disney’s first African animation collaboration, “Iwaju,” echoed these sentiments, highlighting the industry’s role in providing authentic narratives, one that she hopes to contribute to as a writer one day.

Pushing the boundaries

The industry is not just about its stars; it’s also about the innovative directors and producers pushing the boundaries of what Nollywood can achieve. Editi Effiong is one such individual, whose revenge thriller “The Black Book” has set new benchmarks for the industry.

Produced on a modest budget of $1 million (a record at the time for Nollywood) the movie soared to No. 3 on Netflix’s global film charts in 2023, garnering over 20 million views worldwide.

“We spent time on the scripts, we spent about two years writing and preparing the script. Usually, Nollywood films are shot over two to three weeks. We shot this over four months,” he said.

Effiong attributes the film’s success to meticulous planning and a commitment to quality: “We did everything to the highest standards, from scriptwriting to filming,” he told The Hollywood Reporter.

Effiong’s success story exemplifies the new wave of Nollywood filmmakers who are not afraid to invest time and resources into creating high-quality productions that can compete on the global stage.

Film industry veteran Moses Babatope recently announced the launch of Nile Media Entertainment Group, a new production and distribution studio run by an all-star cast of female executives.

As Etim-Effiong of That Good Media puts it: “Nollywood has no shortage of talent and ambition and there’s so much development and investment going in right now. Our time has come.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Two men kiss on a Parisian bridge. The camera later jumps to a trio embracing passionately in a room, before the door shuts.

These are among the images that France, the organizer of the Paris 2024 Olympics, presented to the world during the opening ceremony last week.

In China, the scenes have become a rare point of celebration for the LGBTQ+ community. They were beamed live across hundreds of millions of television screens by the country’s state broadcaster – unimpeded by the usual censorship that blocks any content depicting same-sex relationships.

China has cracked down hard on its LGBTQ+ movement under leader Xi Jinping, who has adopted a more authoritarian, socially conservative and patriarchal vision for the country. Support groups have been forced to disband, with activists harassed by police, pride parades cancelled and films and TV shows featuring same-sex themes banned.

The clampdown has made it all the more striking when scenes of gay men and drag queens from the Paris Olympics opening ceremony made it onto Chinese state broadcaster CCTV. On social media site Weibo, the “#Paris opening ceremony is really cool# hashtag has generated more than 600 million views over the past four days.

Ken Huang, 26, who is gay and lives in Beijing, said it felt like “an unrealistic dream” when the scene came up.

“I burst into big laughs first. I was like ‘Well, every dog has his day!’ Then I quickly took a photo and sent it to my friends who were watching the live broadcast, and quickly posted it on social media,” he said.

Many others marveled at what they saw. “Those who didn’t stay up late to watch the Olympic opening ceremony tonight missed out big time. They missed the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to see a gay kiss and a threesome on CCTV,” a Weibo user from Shanghai wrote during the live broadcast of the ceremony in the early Saturday.

In many parts of the world, the ceremony’s celebration of diversity and inclusion has sparked controversy and backlash. Olympics officials apologized on Sunday after a scene featuring drag queens and a trans model evoking Leonardo da Vinci’s The Last Supper infuriated Christian groups – although the director of the opening ceremony said the famous mural wasn’t the inspiration for the scene.

In China, where sexual minorities still face widespread discrimination and are viewed as a potential political and moral threat by the ruling Communist Party, it also drew a divisive response.

Within hours, comments about the ceremony exploded on popular Chinese social media site Weibo, with some praising French progressiveness.

“In a truly diverse and inclusive society, everyone has the right to freely explore and enjoy sex without being restricted by society’s taboos and prejudices. This is the real meaning of this scene,” one popular user who has more than 380,000 followers wrote.

But many others decry what they see as the glorification of sexual minorities.

“The LGBTQ+ elements are the failure of all failures. The Olympics are a venue for competitive sports and for the display of sportsmanship. And yet, these demons and ghosts were shown … encouraged by all kinds of flattery,” the person, also widely followed by 986,000 fans, wrote.

#Paris opening ceremony is really cool#

The ceremony remained the top trending topic on Weibo for more than 15 hours starting Saturday. Experts said the burst of enthusiasm may have been driven by what Chinese viewers consider a novelty.

“Representations of diverse gender and sexualities have been relatively limited because of regulations in mainland China,” said Suen Yiu-tung, an associate professor of gender studies at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.

“The audience may find such direct presentations of LGBTQ+ elements on TV, albeit relatively common in other parts of the world, rather foreign to them,” he said.

Suen said some in China yearn for the same level of progressiveness.

“To be able to see scenes that discomfort countless conservative people on a CCTV live broadcast, to see feminism that refuses to be silenced, is enough to give a moment of freedom to the soul,” a Weibo user wrote.

“In this world full of pressure, there are still French people shouting for love and freedom. This is the chaotic and beautiful art of France.”

Crackdown on social movements

While non-government organizations and activists have managed to drive incremental changes in the public perception of sexual minorities through health campaigns, the space for civil society has shrunk drastically in the past decade with LGBTQ+ groups facing wider crackdowns, according to critics and scholars.

In 2020, Shanghai Pride, China’s longest-running celebration, had to be cancelled abruptly due to mounting pressure from local authorities.

The following year, the country’s most popular messaging app WeChat shut down dozens of LGBTQ+ accounts run by university students, in one of the most widespread and coordinated acts of censorship targeting sexual minorities the country had seen in decades.

State censorship has also taken aim at other areas, including a ban on women’s cleavage on TV. China’s top media regulator issued new guidelines in 2016 to prohibit TV shows that promote “Western lifestyles.”

Suen explained that the backlash is partly due to Beijing’s campaign to portray expressions of diverse genders and sexualities as “foreign.”

“These Western ideas are not advanced, but rather backwards,” one Weibo user said wrote on Sunday, complaining that France has “forced” ideas like diversity on viewers.

Other users were simply stunned by how the ceremony managed to bypass China’s rigorous censorship, putting the state broadcaster in an awkward position.

Netizens created hashtag #CCTV’s narrators have gone silent# after commentators providing live analysis during the live streaming stopped abruptly when the LGBTQ+ scenes were broadcast.

“It may well have been the most boundary-pushing live broadcast CCTV has ever done,” one user noted on Weibo.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Israel says it has killed Hezbollah’s most senior military official, Fu’ad Shukr, in a drone strike in the southern suburbs of Beirut, a populous neighborhood that is also the Iran-backed group’s stronghold.

If true, Shukr would be the most high-ranking Hezbollah official to have been assassinated since 2016 when Mustafa Badreddine, the group’s top commander at the time, was killed in Syria.

Hezbollah has not yet confirmed Shukr’s death. He was a senior military adviser to the group’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, considered his right-hand man, and a member of the jihad council. The US government had put out a reward of $5 million for information about him and his whereabouts.

Whatever the fate of Shukr, Wednesday’s strike is the most serious Israeli escalation since confrontations between Hezbollah and Israel began on October 8.

Israel said it served as retaliation for a deadly strike in the Israeli-occupied town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights on Saturday, which Israel blamed on Hezbollah. Hezbollah denied the claim.

The developments have raised the specter of an all-out war between Lebanon and Israel that could extend beyond the borders of both countries.

Nasrallah has repeatedly threatened to hit Tel Aviv in response to any Israeli strike on Beirut, a move that would thrust the two countries, and the region, into uncharted waters.

Unlike Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah has an arsenal of precision guided rockets and bombs with payloads of up to 500 kg.

They are also supported by a region-wide axis of Iran-backed fighters including the Houthis in Yemen and the Popular Mobilization Units in Iraq.

Tehran has indicated that it may act to defend Hezbollah, considered the crown jewel of its network of non-state fighters, warning of “severe consequences” in case of an Israeli escalation in Lebanon.

Neither Hezbollah nor Israel wants an all-out war. Hezbollah may seek to retaliate forcefully, falling short of igniting a larger conflict. Israel will likely also retaliate in kind.

How long this highly calibrated tit-for-tat can go on for before the region spirals into an unprecedented war is anyone’s guess.

The US is trying desperately to prevent this and to clinch a diplomatic solution. Hezbollah has vowed to keep fighting in confrontations until a ceasefire in Gaza, which remains elusive.

Until then, Lebanon, Israel and the wider region remains on the precipice.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

It happened in Caracas on June 9, 2016, when I was there to cover a series of violent protests that had broken out in Venezuela.

Moments after we made it inside the building, Julio Borges, an opposition member of the assembly and its former president, arrived in bad shape. He had a bloody nose and said a group of opposition legislators like him had been attacked by colectivos as they were headed to the office of the national electoral authority. The month before, President Nicolás Maduro had declared a “constitutional state of emergency.”

Even before that tumultuous period, it had become abundantly clear that Maduro’s government had absolute control of all three branches of government as well as the the National Electoral Council (CNE).

And, as we had just witnessed, it also controlled the streets of Caracas. Maduro, now 61, is a former bus driver who became a Caracas metro system union leader and rose through the ranks. He is the handpicked successor of the late strongman Hugo Chávez, who ruled Venezuela from 1999 until his death in 2013.

A new wave of violence shook Venezuela once again in 2019. In January of that year, Juan Guaidó, then president of the National Assembly, had proclaimed himself interim president of Venezuela. The then-35-year-old Guaidó argued that he had the constitutional right to the presidency as leader of the assembly because Maduro, who had been sworn in only days before, was an illegitimate president.

Both the opposition and leaders of several countries in the region had called the previous year’s election a sham. Guaidó convinced 50 countries that he had a right to be president, including the United States.

By June 2019, when I returned to Caracas, Guaidó had already attempted a military uprising that almost succeeded on April 30, followed by weeks of violent clashes between protesters and security forces that left dozens dead.

The world started to pay close attention to Venezuela once again in the last few months as the country was getting ready to hold a new presidential election. Would Maduro allow the opposition to run a candidate of its choosing? Would this be a free, fair, and transparent election? Would the colectivos once again be used to intimidate voters as they had done in previous elections?

The first and second questions were answered in January when opposition leader María Corina Machado was barred by Venezuela’s highest court from running for president (or any other elected position) for 15 years over alleged financial irregularities. Machado had won more than 90% of the vote in last October’s opposition primary. She attracted large crowds everywhere she went, even though the government did everything possible to stop her, even persecuting those who rented sound systems to her campaign.

The third question was answered in the last hours of the election itself on Sunday when colectivos showed up at at least one polling center in Caracas and started beating up opposition sympathizers who had been asked by the leadership to keep an eye on ballot boxes in an effort to prevent tampering.

Those of us who have been following Venezuela for decades have seen this movie before: a “sham” election to justify Maduro’s staying in power. Democracy has been gradually weakening in Venezuela over the last 25 years since the charismatic socialist leader Chávez rose to power in 1999.

While Venezuelans and the world awaited results Sunday night, the country’s electoral authority delayed publication, alleging the system had been targeted by hackers operating from North Macedonia without showing any evidence. This was not surprising in a country where all three branches of government are in the hands of government loyalists, hundreds of opposition leaders have been imprisoned, and true democracy hasn’t existed in a generation.

“Is there anything different this time?” That’s the question I asked Michael Shifter, the former president of the Inter-American Dialogue and current professor of Latin American Politics at Georgetown University, who has been following Venezuelan politics for decades.

Shifter said the Maduro victory was a “blatant, massive and egregious fraud,” but the opposition managed to do something it had been unable to do before: uniting behind a single candidate and going to the polls in massive numbers.

“The alternative [to participating in the election] was taking themselves completely out of the political game, saying ‘we refuse to take part in this unfair and unjust election,’ but that would’ve left the opposition in a weaker position in practical and political terms” as it happened in 2018 when the opposition decided to boycott the whole process.

“I think the opposition learned that refusing to take part in elections was not helping their cause.  They recognized that even when the elections weren’t free and fair, they needed to defeat Maduro on his terms, which they’ve done,” Shifter said.

Venezuela’s CNE declared Maduro the winner Monday saying he had won with 51.2% of the votes, with 80% of the ballots counted. His main rival, opposition candidate Edmundo González, had obtained 44.2% of the votes, according to the body.

“When you’re in first grade, you learn that 20 is more than seven,” Quiroga said. “The probability that [opposition presidential candidate] Edmundo [González] could’ve won was low, but still arithmetically possible,” at that point, he said, adding that prior to the election there were credible exit polls showing González was ahead by as much as 40 percent.

Just like 2016 and 2019, violence has returned to Venezuela. At least 11 people died during protests in Venezuela on Monday, according to the non-governmental organization Foro Penal on social media. Venezuelan authorities say more than 700 people were detained in the protests. The Venezuelan opposition political party Voluntad Popular said Tuesday that its leader Freddy Superlano has been kidnapped.

Unlike the 2018 election, Shifter says, this time the opposition “knows they won, and the regime knows they won.” The question now is how long the governing coalition that includes not only the socialists, but the armed forces can hold, Shifter said.

If that coalition becomes “divided and weaker, the armed forces may say ‘this ship is sinking and we don’t want to go down with it,’” Shifter said.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh has been killed in the Iranian capital Tehran, according to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps and Hamas on Wednesday.

His killing represents a significant blow to the militant group, eliminating a key figure who headed up its political operations while living overseas.

In a statement, Hamas accused Israel of targeting Haniyeh in a “raid” on his residence in Tehran, following his participation in the inauguration of the new Iranian president.

The Israeli military said it doesn’t respond to reports in foreign media, though senior officials have previously vowed to eliminate Hamas and its leadership in response to the group’s October 7 attack on Israel.

It is not clear precisely when Haniyeh, a key interlocutor with Egyptian and Qatari mediators on the ongoing hostage and ceasefire talks in Gaza, was killed. The new Iranian president was sworn in on Tuesday and Hamas released pictures the same day of Haniyeh meeting Iranian officials in Tehran.

The killing comes at an especially fraught time for the Middle East, with escalating confrontations between Israel and Hezbollah threatening to expand into a wider regional war and as Hamas continues to battle Israel’s military in Gaza amid an unfolding and catastrophic humanitarian crisis.

Musa Abu Marzouk, a member of Hamas’ Political Bureau, said Haniyeh’s death would “not pass in vain,” while another Hamas official said the group is “ready to pay various prices.”

News of Haniyeh’s death came a day after Israel said it killed Hezbollah’s most senior military official, Fu’ad Shukr, in a drone strike in the southern suburbs of Beirut, a populous neighborhood that is also the Iran-backed group’s stronghold. The strike was the most serious Israeli escalation since confrontations between Hezbollah and Israel began on October 8.

The White House said it has seen the reports of Haniyeh’s death but declined to immediately comment further, according to a spokesperson.

Haniyeh would be the second Hamas senior leader to be killed since the beginning of Israel’s war in Gaza. In January, the group said its deputy head of the political bureau Saleh Al Arouri was killed in an Israeli airstrike in the Lebanese capital Beirut. Arouri was considered one of the founding members of the Hamas’s military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades.

However, the group has been able to weather the death of other key leaders before, including slaying of its co-founders Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz Rantisi who were killed weeks apart in 2004.

“This assassination is, in a way, just a matter of when, not a matter of if,” Ravid said.

Who is Ismail Haniyeh?

Haniyeh, 62, was born in a refugee camp near Gaza City, and joined Hamas in the late 1980s during the First Intifada, or uprising.

As Hamas grew in power, Haniyeh rose through the ranks – being appointed part of a secret “collective leadership” in 2004. By 2017 he had become chief of the group – and was named a “specially designated global terrorist” by the United States soon after.

Over the years, he has participated in peace talks with former US President Jimmy Carter, and met with other world leaders including the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, and Chinese diplomat Wang Kejian earlier this year.

In April, Israeli airstrikes killed three of Haniyeh’s sons and four of his grandchildren, according to Hamas.

At the time, Haniyeh – who was based in Qatar – insisted their deaths would not affect ongoing ceasefire and hostage talks.

“Whoever thinks that by targeting my kids during the negotiation talks and before a deal is agreed upon that it will force Hamas to back down on its demands, is delusional,” he said.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Ismail Haniyeh has been part of Hamas for decades, in recent years running the militant group’s political operations from exile, and emerging as one of its most visible leaders during the war with Israel in Gaza.

Haniyeh’s death strikes a significant blow to Hamas at a time when tensions are flaring across the Middle East over the devastating war in Gaza, and raises fraught questions about the future of negotiations between Israel and Hamas.

As Hamas’s political leader, he was a key interlocutor with international mediators during stalled hostage and ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, following the group’s October 7 attack on Israel.

Haniyeh was born in a refugee camp near Gaza City, and joined Hamas in the late 1980s during the First Intifada, or uprising.

His parents were refugees expelled from Askalan, which later became known as the Israeli city Ashkelon.

He was imprisoned several times in Israel for his participation in the uprising, before being deported and returning to Gaza – where he steadily climbed Hamas ranks in the following decade.

Haniyeh was appointed part of a secret “collective leadership” in 2004 after the deaths of Hamas’ previous two leaders, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz Rantisi, who were killed in Israeli strikes just weeks apart.

By 2017 he had become political chief of the group, and was named a “specially designated global terrorist” by the United States soon after.

This decision came during a period of tension between Washington and the Palestinians due to the decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, a decision made by the then-US President Donald Trump.

Despite that designation – and unlike Hamas’ military leadership – Haniyeh travelled globally, meeting with world figures as the political head of the organization. He was photographed meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran on Tuesday.

Ceasefire and hostage release talks

Hamas’ surprise attack on October 7 saw at least 1,500 Hamas fighters pour across the border into Israel, in an assault that killed at least 1,200, and some 200 others taken hostage.

Israeli strikes in Gaza have since killed more than 39,000 Palestinians, according to the Ministry of Health there, and sparked a humanitarian catastrophe in the densely crowded strip.

In the months since, Haniyeh had been a key figure participating in international negotiations over the conflict, including the release of hostages still in Gaza.

He had shown willingness to reach an agreement if Israel withdrew from Gaza – saying in May that the group was “still keen” to strike a deal with mediators, but that any proposal would have to cease fighting in the enclave permanently.

At the time, he said their demands aimed to stop “the aggression against our people, which is a fundamental and logical position that lays the foundation for a more stable future.”

In response, Israel has called those demands “unacceptable,” with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowing to keep fighting until Hamas was destroyed – leaving negotiations at a standstill as both sides traded blame.

As recently as early July, Haniyeh was in touch with mediators in Qatar and Egypt to discuss ideas on ending the war, sparking some hope that the two sides could be on the brink of a framework agreement.

Throughout the war, he has also continued meeting with other world leaders and officials – including Chinese diplomat Wang Kejian, who met Haniyeh in Qatar in March, during which they discussed the war in Gaza.

Haniyeh has also felt the personal toll of the war in Gaza. In April, Israeli police arrested one of his sisters on charges of communicating with members of the movement. Nine days later, Israeli airstrikes killed three of his sons and four of his grandchildren.

Afterward, Haniyeh insisted their deaths would not affect ongoing ceasefire and hostage talks.

“Whoever thinks that by targeting my kids during the negotiation talks and before a deal is agreed upon that it will force Hamas to back down on its demands, is delusional,” he said.

At the time, Haniyeh was based in Qatar, which is not a signatory of the Rome Statute allowing jurisdiction by the International Criminal Court.

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Far-right protesters violently clashed with British police on Tuesday near a mosque in the northwest English town of Southport, a day after three young girls were stabbed to death in one of the worst assaults against children in the country in decades.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the group had “hijacked” a peaceful vigil held for those killed and injured in the attack “with violence and thuggery” and “insulted the community as it grieves.”

Those involved “will feel the full force of the law,” Starmer added in the post on X.

The violence followed a peaceful vigil in the seaside town attended by hundreds of mourners who laid wreaths, toys and candles in an emotional tribute to the three girls who were killed during the attack during a Taylor Swift-themed event at a dance school.

Protesters, believed to be supporters of the far-right English Defence League, took to the streets in anger throwing bricks at a local mosque, setting cars and police vehicles alight and hurling bottles at police, Merseyside Police said in a statement.

Police believe the crowd took to the streets over unconfirmed reports speculating on the identity of the teenage suspect, who was arrested on suspicion of murder and attempted murder following Monday’s knife attack.

Officers “sustained serious injuries including fractures, lacerations, a suspected broken nose and concussion,” Merseyside Police said. “Other officers have suffered varying degrees of injury including head injuries, serious facial injuries, and one was knocked unconscious.”

Three police dogs were also injured, with two sustaining leg injuries from bricks thrown at them and one suffering burns, it added.

“Yesterday, our officers and other members of the emergency services were faced with one of the most difficult situations they will ever face,” Assistant Chief Constable Alex Goss said in a police statement, referring to the horrific knife attack.

“Tonight, they find themselves being attacked as they endeavour to prevent disorder,” he said.

The North West Ambulance Service said it treated 39 police officers injured in the violence, 27 of whom were taken to hospital.

Following the arrest in the stabbings case, an “incorrect” name linked to the suspect was spread on social media, police said.

“There has been much speculation and hypothesis around the status of a 17-year-old male who is currently in police custody, and some individuals are using this to bring violence and disorder to our streets,” Goss said.

“We have already said that the person arrested was born in the UK, and speculation helps nobody at this time.”

Police have said the suspect is from the village of Banks, near Southport, and was originally from Cardiff, Wales.

Goss added that many of those involved in the violence were not local to the area, suggesting they traveled to Southport with the intention of causing unrest.

The Muslim Council of Britain (MCB) paid tribute to the girls killed in the attack and said in a statement that “Southport’s tragedy was shamelessly exploited to spark outrage, with Islamophobia fueling the fire and leading to tonight’s violence.”

“This began with a false rumour on the internet, stoked by misinformation from a Russian news site, which wrongfully associated the crime with Muslims,” it said.

The MCB said the government “must address the increasing rise of violent far-right extremism targeting Muslim communities. More must be done to tackle Islamophobia and offer reassurance at this time.”

On Tuesday, police named the three girls killed in the stabbing as Bebe King, 6, Elsie Dot Stancombe, 7, and Alice Dasilva Aguiar, 9.

Eight other children suffered stab wounds in the attack and five of them are in critical condition, police said. Two adults also remain in critical condition after being injured in the attack.

Police shared a tribute from the family of King, who said: “No words can describe the devastation that has hit our family as we try to deal with the loss of our little girl Bebe.”

Prime Minister Starmer and other officials visited the site of the attack on Tuesday, paying tribute to the victims and thanking emergency responders who attended the scene.

Starmer laid a wreath of cream and yellow-colored flowers, alongside floral tributes left by the local community.

Taylor Swift, whose music was the theme of the dance class targeted in the attack, said Tuesday she was “completely in shock.”

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