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The S&P 500 index ($SPX) is a capitalization-weighted stock index. Many lesser capitalization blue-chip stocks that compose these 500 companies have been performance laggards. Though smaller companies in the index, these corporations are among the bluest of the blue-chip stocks. These prestigious corporations have been overshadowed by the immense mega-capitalization companies that have received attention from institutional and individual investors. For the most part, these other and forgotten stocks have better valuations and dividend yields as they have been somewhat neglected by Wall Street.

The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) provides a perspective highlighting these smaller blue-chip stocks in the index. Does this equal-weighted index reveal a market story obscured by the mega-cap dominated S&P 500 index?

S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), Point & Figure Chart Study

S&P 500 Equal Weighted ETF (RSP) PnF Chart Notes:

  • In 2022, an Accumulation Structure began to form.
  • Markup began in 2023 and still continues.
  • Three Horizontal PnF counts are estimated here.
  • Two partial counts confirm each other in the $186 price zone.
  • The entire width of the structure counts to $260.

NASDAQ 100 Index ($NDX) with Relative Strength to the S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP)

This daily chart of the NASDAQ 100 Index ($NDX) illustrates the start and end of the second-quarter rally. A final ThrowOver of the channel line clocks in just as the quarter is ending and the third quarter is beginning. A sudden and sharp reversal is evidence of the rotation away from this mega-cap dominated index and into the broad list of blue chip stocks in the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index. The Relative Strength line reveals the shift.

Broad market rotations can destabilize markets as funds flow away from prior leadership toward new investment themes. Watch for emerging leadership from industry groups and stocks while markets are generally correcting. Point & Figure horizontal counts can help greatly with price projection estimates. However, we must remember that PnF cannot estimate the time needed to reach potential price objectives.

All the Best,

Bruce

@rdwyckoff

Prior Blog Notes: At the end of June, I published a NASDAQ 100 PnF chart study as it was reaching price objectives. The price of the objective range was 19,600 / 20,800. On July 10th the $NDX peaked at 20,690.97, just as the new quarter was beginning. (click here to view the chart study). 

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. 

Wyckoff Resources:

Additional Wyckoff Resources (Click Here)

Wyckoff Market Discussion (Click Here)

This Fed has got to go. It’s time. You’ve overstayed your welcome, Fed Chief Powell. I literally was just shaking my head after reading the changes to the Fed’s policy statement. The changes were in the first two paragraphs, so let me jump right in and show you what changed in the wording and, essentially, what the Fed acknowledged:

Wording in red with a line through it was wording from the prior policy statement that was not in the current policy statement. Wording in red and underlined is new wording in the current policy statement. I think the most important change is the last line in the second paragraph. At the prior meeting, the statement said the FOMC “remains highly attentive to inflation risks”. That clearly showed that the Fed was much more concerned about inflation than the economy. The economy wasn’t even mentioned. But the latest statement now reads that the FOMC “is attentive to risks to both sides of its dual mandate.” The dual mandate, of course, is to maximize employment (economy) and stabilize prices (inflation). So the Fed is now acknowledging that the economy is weakening, which is EXACTLY what I’ve been saying for the past several weeks. We dedicated an event last Saturday to this exact topic to warn our members of the deteriorating economy and what that could mean for the S&P 500.

It’s not pretty.

In order to avoid recession, the Fed needs to act and cut rates. But no, no, no, not this Fed. They’re still looking for a “sustainable” path to its 2% target on inflation, as if this chart doesn’t CLEARLY show a sustainable path:

I’ve been in the camp of a soft landing. Now I’ve decided I don’t like camping. I also don’t like this Fed, if you couldn’t tell. Not only did the Fed leave rates unchanged and fail to give us all a sense of security that rates will drop in September, but it was a UNANIMOUS decision. They’re all going along for this ride with the Fed Chief of Sustainability Powell.

Powell is in the business of creating pain for investors globally. His infamous speech from the stage in Jackson Hole in 2022 completely derailed a massive 700 point-rally in the S&P 500 over the prior 9-10 weeks. This isn’t new.

Do you know how many trillions and trillions of dollars trade every day in the U.S. bond and stock markets? There are BRILLIANT economists in the world’s largest financial firms and all of this money has been SCREAMING at the Fed to cut rates. But they have their own agenda and are the LEAST transparent Fed that I’ve ever seen. Would you like to see some immediate fallout from the Fed paying ZERO attention to the stock and bond markets?

How about this 5-day chart on the IWM (small cap Russell 2000 ETF):

Wednesday 3pm: The moment that Wall Street realized that all its hopes and dreams of a rate cut were crushed and that our economy is as good as gone. Soft landing? Very, very doubtful. The good news is that Christmas specials should be great this year as companies try to get rid themselves of massive inventories.

Listen, it’s not too late to get the recording from last week’s “Why The S&P 500 May Tumble”. It may turn out to be the most important video you watch this year. A FREE 30-day trial membership will do the trick. I laid out the path for the S&P 500 and key growth areas. The only thing I’d change, 5 days later, is the title. A more appropriate title would be “Why The S&P 500 Will Tumble”.

Also, I just recorded a YouTube video last night, “Fed Makes Wrong Move AGAIN!”. Be sure to “Like” the video and “Subscribe” to our YouTube Channel. I appreciate your support!

Sleep well Powell.

Happy trading!

Tom

In July alone, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF jumped upwards of 12%, outpacing the S&P 500, before retracing half that distance. Historically, the Russell (in general) hasn’t done as well as other major indexes, mainly because it doesn’t have the same exposure to fast-growing tech companies. However, that lack of exposure is driving its surge, as investors may be rotating out of tech and into small caps.

What this might indicate: The small cap surge signals a shift in market sentiment, with investors eyeing opportunities beyond the tech sector.

The Macro View

Let’s take a look at the chart below: iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM).

CHART 1. WEEKLY CHART OF IWM. The Russell 2000 proxy is recovering from a decline and a lengthy trading range.

IWM was in a bear market from the end of 2021 to the middle of 2022 (see blue dotted line), losing 31% of its value from its all-time high of $235.46. It then got caught in a broad trading range (see green rectangle), finally breaking out at the beginning of 2024. 

Despite its impressive rise, IWM must break past $235.46 and keep climbing to confirm a new small-cap bull market. 

So, are we at the start of a new bull market for small caps? 

If so, IWM is only 8% away from that mark.

But … Why IWM, and Why Now?

The Russell 2000 is more balanced and diversified than the S&P 500. Its largest stock holding makes up only 1.7% of the index (meaning less concentration risk). Also, IWM trades at a P/E of 16.9, which is cheaper than the S&P’s 24.3 ratio.

Why now? Falling interest rates typically create a favorable economic environment for small caps. Overall, small-cap stocks tend to shine in periods of economic recovery and when interest rates are favorable. 

Depending on your perspective on the economy over the last few years, there are either potential rate cuts on the horizon or both an awful economy and potential rate cuts soon.

Key Levels to Watch

Thursday was a particularly bad day on Wall Street, with the Dow plunging 700 points, the S&P 500 down 1.9%, and the Nasdaq and Russell, losing over 3%. 

Following the broader market, you can see the IWM tumble in the chart below.

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF IWM. Wow, look at that tumble.

If IWM is to challenge its all-time high of $235.46 and proclaim a new bull market, it doesn’t look like it has enough momentum to do so, as the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) shows … well … no convincing money flow either from the bull or bear side. 

The StockChartsTechnicalRank (SCTR) score looks promising, jumping above 90 again (indicating several technical indicators are bullish across multiple timeframes). However, with the broader market being bearish on this day, IWM is feeling the pressure.

The key level to keep an eye on is around $205. High volume concentration (look at the Volume-by-Price indicator) coincides with the projected Kumo support level and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, making it a strong range of interest and potential buying. And if IWM falls below this level, you have down to $187.50—where the 61.8% Fib retracement and the January lowest swing low of the year happen to meet—to find favorable buying opportunities. Keep an eye on momentum; the more bullish, the more favorable.

Closing Bell

Small caps look to be making a comeback. IWM needs to break $235.46 to confirm a new bull market, and it’s just 8% away. Investors may be rotating out of tech stocks and into small caps, drawn by lower P/E ratios and other diversification benefits. If you want to get in on the action, keep an eye on key levels around $205 and $197.50 for buying opportunities. Market sentiment may shift big time as the likelihood of rate cuts looks more promising.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Far-right demonstrations turned violent for a second night across England Wednesday, in the wake of this week’s mass stabbing in Southport – the worst attack on children in the country in recent history.

While a community continues to grieve the murder of three young girls, far-right agitators have mobilized around online misinformation and hateful, anti-migrant and anti-Muslim narratives – fueling disorder in London, Manchester and the northeastern town of Hartlepool.

Chaotic scenes unfolded in the capital on Wednesday night, with protesters from the “Enough is Enough” demonstration throwing bottles and cans at police, and hurling flares toward the gates of Downing Street while chanting far-right, anti-Islam slogans, including, “We want our country back.”

In Manchester, demonstrators wearing balaclavas gathered outside a hotel that houses asylum seekers, and in Hartlepool, police cars were set ablaze by a mob who carried sticks and pelted officers with objects.

More than 100 people in London were arrested for “violent disorder” and an “assault on an emergency worker,” according to the city’s Metropolitan Police. There were two arrests in Manchester, and eight in Hartlepool, according to police there.

The violence follows Tuesday’s night of unrest in the northwest English town of Southport, where a group of far-right protesters hurled bricks at a mosque, set cars and police vehicles on fire and clashed with police barely an hour after a peaceful vigil for Bebe King (6), Elsie Dot Stancombe (7) and Alice Dasilva Aguiar (9) was held across town.

Eight other children suffered stab wounds in the attack and five of them are in critical condition. Two adults also remain in critical condition after being injured in the attack, police said.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned the scenes, saying the protesters “hijacked” the community’s grief.

Met police superintendent Neil Holyoak said that while “it is understandable the public have strong feelings” about the Southport stabbings, “the subsequent violent, unlawful disorder that unfolded was completely unacceptable and driven by misinformation.”

Shortly after Monday’s attack, far-right groups began to circulate a false name for the alleged attacker across social media, and falsely claimed that he was an asylum seeker.

The suspect is a 17-year-old from Banks, Lancashire. He was born in Cardiff, Wales, according to police.

Axel Rudakubana, who was charged with three counts of murder and 10 counts of attempted murder, was named on Thursday after a judge lifted reporting restrictions.

Less than 24 hours after the attack, however, before the suspect’s name had been released, the false name had already received over 30,000 mentions from more than 18,000 unique accounts on X alone – and was amplified by prominent far-right leaders, according to the Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD).

That false name had been also recommended to users through X’s algorithm, and was trending as a top recommended search result for users under the “What’s happening” sidebar.

“White nationalists will seize on any opportunity to spread misinformation about Muslims, about anyone who’s not White. So they were immediately on it – and were happy to spread basically whatever would confirm their presuppositions about who had done it,” he said.

Whether it was a malicious actor, or whether it was someone who was looking for “clicks,” is unclear, Squirrell added. “But we do know that the name that they gave out was made up… and that all the details are completely made up.”

Squirrell pointed to the fact that the viral posts about the alleged attacker said that he was on a watch list for MI6, Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service. However, MI5 – MI6’s internal counterpart – is the organization responsible for fighting domestic terrorism. “They gave out details that were basically designed to pick up the attention of the far-right, and also for anyone who is concerned about migration,” he said.

Algorithms tend to favor emotive, sensationalist, outrageous, engaging content – because they are based on engagement.

“Things that people on the far-right – or people who are interested in peddling misinformation as a way of getting engagement – tend to post things that will appeal to the algorithm,” Squirrell said. He added that, while the algorithm played a part, there was also a “huge amount of organizing happening” in a variety of different places that are not algorithmically oriented – for example in far-right groups on the instant-messaging platform Telegram.

Such Telegram groups have been instrumental in organizing these demonstrations.

Hope Not Hate, a UK advocacy group that campaigns against racism and fascism, identified one of the first Telegram groups that appeared on the encrypted social media network just hours after the Southport stabbings.

Like what was being shared on X and other platforms, the Telegram group “Southport Wake Up,” also posted false information about the alleged suspect. Hours after the attack, the group’s creator sent out the details for the first protest: Meet near a Southport mosque on Tuesday.

It was there that the violence began.

The “Southport Wake Up” group is still active, and on Thursday, posted calls for similar disruptions at Muslim centers in other cities across England.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Starmer was set to meet with senior police leaders in London on Thursday.

In a statement, Downing Street said: “While the right to peaceful protest must be protected at all costs, he will be clear that criminals who exploit that right in order to sow hatred and carry out violent acts will face the full force of the law.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

According to the source, who had been briefed on the operation, the bomb was concealed about two months ago in the guest house where Haniyeh was known to stay in Tehran and detonated remotely once he was inside his room there.

The Iranian government and Hamas say Israel carried out the assassination. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement.

US officials were briefed on the operation by Israeli officials only after the assassination, the source said.

The New York Times was the first to report the details of Haniyeh’s assassination.

Haniyeh’s assassination raised fears once again that Israel’s conflict with Hamas and its allies could develop into a multi-front, fully-fledged war in the Middle East.

Iranian state media and Hamas previously indicated that Haniyeh was killed by a rocket fired from outside the building in which he was staying.

But the revelation that a bomb was smuggled inside the guest house, which was under the protection of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, indicates a startling breach of security for the IRGC.

It’s unclear when Haniyeh arrived in Tehran, but Iranian state media first reported that he would be flying in to attend the inauguration of the country’s new president on Monday. He had a full schedule of public appearances and meetings before he was assassinated, according to Iranian state media press reports.

Haniyeh was first pictured on Tuesday, before the inauguration, meeting with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Afterwards, Iranian state media published images of Haniyeh meeting with Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian. Haniyeh was next spotted arriving at the inauguration ceremony at Iran’s Islamic Consultative Assembly building, where he sat in the front row.

Just before 7:00 p.m. local time (11:30 a.m. ET), Haniyeh made his final public appearance at an exhibit at Tehran’s Milad Tower. At 2 a.m. that night, according to state media outlet IRNA, he was killed, with what IRNA described as an “airborne guided projectile.”

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Wednesday: “You killed our dear guest in our house and now have paved the way for your harsh punishment.”

His death marked the start of an unpredictable new phase of Israel’s war with Hamas, coming just hours on from an Israeli strike in Beirut, Lebanon, on Tuesday that killed Hezbollah commander Fu’ad Shukr, whom it blamed for a deadly attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend.

Israel on Thursday then announced it had confirmed it had killed Mohammed Deif, the head of Hamas’ military wing and a key architect of the October 7 attacks, last month.

Haniyeh’s coffin was moved through the streets of Tehran in a procession on Thursday, with thousands lining the streets to watch. He will be buried in Qatar’s capital Doha on Friday.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

American journalist Evan Gershkovich and former US Marine Paul Whelan were among the 24 detainees released as part of a complex prisoner swap between Russia, the US and other Western nations.

A host of Russian dissidents were also freed while in return Moscow got a former FSB colonel convicted of murder as well as several individuals accused of spying or cybercrime.

Here is what we know about who was freed.

Russians released as part of the deal

Vadim Krasikov, 58

Krasikov, a former high-ranking FSB colonel serving a life sentence in a German prison, was on the top of Moscow’s list of Russian prisoners it wanted to exchange.

Krasikov was convicted of the 2019 murder of the former Chechen fighter Zelimkhan “Tornike” Khangoshvili in Berlin’s Kleiner Tiergarten.

The German court that convicted Krasikov in 2021 said he acted on behalf of the Russian state, shooting Khangoshvili “execution style” in broad daylight. Khangoshvili fought against Russian forces during the Chechen wars and later relocated to Georgia, where he survived several assassination attempts. Wanted in Russia on terror charges, he was a particular thorn in the side of Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader and close ally of Putin.

The Kremlin has made no secret of its desire to get Krasikov back to Russia, asking for him to be released in 2022 alongside Viktor Bout, a Russian arms dealer who was serving a 25-year sentence in the US, in exchange for Whelan and the WNBA star Brittney Griner.

When the US couldn’t get Krasikov released, Moscow refused to let Whelan go, even though the Biden administration offered several other people instead.

Vadim Konoshchenok, 48

Konoshchenok included in a 2022 court document.” class=”image_large__dam-img image_large__dam-img–loading” onload=”this.classList.remove(‘image_large__dam-img–loading’)” onerror=”imageLoadError(this)” height=”2176″ width=”2500″ loading=”lazy”>

Extradited to the US from Estonia earlier this month, Konoshchenok was facing charges of conspiracy over his role in a global procurement and money laundering network on behalf of the Russian government, according to the US Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York.

The US Attorney’s Office said in a statement that Konoshchenok is a Russian citizen with alleged ties to the FSB, the Russian intelligence agency. He is accused of being part of a scheme to provide sensitive, American-made electronics and ammunition to Russia, violating US export controls, economic sanctions and other criminal statutes.

Vladislav Klyushin, 43

A Russian businessman, Klyushin was sentenced in Boston last year to nine years in prison for his role in what the US authorities called “an elaborate hack-to-trade scheme that netted approximately $93 million through securities trades based on confidential corporate information stolen from US computer networks.”

Klyushin was arrested in Sion, Switzerland, in March 2021 and extradited to the United States in December 2021. On top of his prison sentence, he was also ordered to forfeit more than $34 million and pay restitutions.

Roman Seleznev, 40

Roman Seleznev is a convicted hacker and credit card fraudster who was serving a 27-year sentence in the US. Russian officials had previously asked for Seleznev – known as Track2, Bulba and Ncux 3 – to be part of the Griner and Bout exchange in 2022. The US agreed to that, but the deal fell apart when it was unable to offer Krasikov as well.

Seleznev was arrested in the Maldives in 2014. He was extradited to the US and sentenced in April 2017 for hacking into point-of-sale computers to steal and sell credit card numbers to the criminal underworld.

In November that year, he was sentenced to 14 years in prison for his role in a $50 million cyberfraud ring and for defrauding banks of $9 million through a hacking scheme. The two sentences were running concurrently.

Artem Dultsev (age unknown)

Artem Dultsev is a Russian spy who was living undercover in Slovenia, posing as an IT businessman named Ludvig Gish.

He pleaded guilty to espionage at a court in Ljubljana on Wednesday and was sentenced to more than a year and half in prison, which the court said was equivalent to time spent. According to a statement from the court, he was set to be deported to Russia and was banned from entering Slovenia for five years.

Anna Dultseva (age unknown)

Anna Dultseva, pleaded guilty to espionage alongside Dultsev on Wednesday. Also a Russian spy, she posed as an art dealer and gallery owner and is thought to be married to Dultsev. She went by the name Maria Rosa Mayer Munos. Like Dultsev, she was sentenced to time served and deportation.

Mikhail Mikushin (age unknown)

Mikushin is a Russian spy arrested in Norway in 2022. He was working at the University of Tromsø in the Arctic Circle, pretending to be a Brazilian researcher.

Pavel Rubtsov (age unknown)

A Russian spy who was living in Poland under the false pretence of being a Spanish journalist called Pablo Gonzales. He was arrested in February 2022, according to the Polish state news agency PAP.

American citizens and residents released

Evan Gershkovich, 32

The Wall Street Journal reporter was sentenced to 16 years in prison for espionage in July, the first American journalist to be arrested on spying charges in Russia since the Cold War.

The US government, Gershkovich’s newspaper and his supporters have denounced the trial as a sham.

Paul Whelan, 54

Former US Marine Whelan has spent almost six years in Russian prisons after his arrest in Moscow in December 2018.

He was sentenced in 2020 to 16 years in prison on espionage charges that he and the US government vehemently deny. He said he was in the country for a friend’s wedding.

Like Gershkovich, Whelan has been designated as wrongfully detained by the US State Department. He is also an Irish, British and Canadian citizen.

Alsu Kurmasheva, 47

The Russian-American journalist was sentenced to six-and-a-half years in prison after being convicted of spreading false information about the Russian army.

Kurmasheva was sentenced on the same day that a court in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg convicted Gershkovich.

Vladimir Kara-Murza, 42

A prominent Russian opposition politician and human rights defender, Kara-Murza was sentenced to 25 years in prison for treason after publicly condemning Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

He is a permanent resident of the US and a dual citizen of Russia and the United Kingdom.

He was moved a number of times in recent months and was transferred to a prison hospital earlier this month. His lawyers have been repeatedly denied access to him.

German citizens released

Rico Krieger, 30 or 31

The German citizen was sentenced to death in Belarus in June after being charged with terrorism and mercenary activities.

Little is known about Krieger. The group Human Rights Center “Viasna” said Krieger is a German Red Cross employee. The Belarusian authorities said he was a German citizen born in 1993.

According to his LinkedIn profile, he worked as an emergency medical technician for the German Red Cross and as an armed security officer for the US Embassy in Berlin.

Krieger was pardoned by the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko on July 30, according to Lukashenko’s office.

Kevin Lik, 18

Kevin Lik, a dual citizen of Russia and Germany, was convicted of high treason in December 2023, according to the Russian state news agency TASS.

TASS said Lick was accused of photographing and filming military equipment and personnel at the Maikop garrison in Russia. According to the court, he intended to provide the information to German intelligence.

Demuri (Dieter) Voronin (age unknown)

Voronin was accused of helping Ivan Safronov, a former journalist and adviser to the head of Russian space agency Roscosmos accused of treason, according to Russian state news agency TASS.

According to the indictment, quoted by Russian state media, Demuri Voronin, a German citizen, facilitated Safronov’s cooperation with the German Federal Intelligence Service.

Safronov was sentenced to 22 years in prison and Voronin to 13 years and 3 months according to the Russian state news agency RIA.

Herman Moyzhes (age unknown)

A lawyer and cycling activist, Moyzhes was charged earlier this month with treason for helping Russian citizens obtain residence permits in Europe, according to TASS.

His arrest was criticised as politically motivated by the German Jewish community.

Patrick Schoebel (38 or 39)

Schoebel was detained at Pulkovo Airport in St. Petersburg in January for carrying a bag containing cannabis gummy bears, according to the press service of St. Petersburg courts.

Russian opposition figures released

Ilya Yashin, 41

Kremlin critic Ilya Yashin was sentenced to eight years and six months for spreading “false information” about the Russian army in December 2022.

Yashin, a close ally of the late Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny,  was convicted of spreading “false” statements about the circumstances of the killings of Ukrainian civilians by Russian troops in Bucha, a town north of Kyiv.

Russia criminalized criticism of the military following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year. The court said he would serve his sentence “in a strict regime correctional colony.”

Alexandra Skochilenko, 33

The Russian artist was sentenced to seven years in jail in 2023 after replacing price tags with anti-war messages in a St. Petersburg grocery store as an act of protest.

In her final statement in court before the verdict, Skochilenko questioned the perceived threat posed by her actions, stating, “How little faith does our prosecutor have in our state and society if he believes that our statehood and public safety can be destroyed by five small pieces of paper?”

Oleg Orlov, 71

The human rights defender and the former head of the Nobel Peace Prize-winning organization “Memorial” was sentenced to two and half years in prison for speaking up against Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

Lilia Chanysheva, 42

A former staffer in the Navalny’s organization, Chanysheva was sentenced to seven-and-a-half years in prison in June 2023, after being found guilty of “organizing an extremist community.”

In April, the Supreme Court of Bashkortostan increased her sentence to nine and half years.

Ksenia Fadeeva, 32

Another former associate of Navalny, Fadeeva was sentenced to nine years in prison in December 2023. She was convicted of organizing the activities of an extremist group using her official position and participating in a non-profit organization that violated citizens’ rights.

Vadim Ostanin (age unknown)

Another former staffer in Alexei Navalny’s foundation, Ostanin was sentenced to nine years in prison on extremism charges.

Andrei Pivovarov, 42

An opposition activist and human rights defender, Pivovarov served as the head of the since banned Open Russia movement. He was sentenced to four years in a penal colony in July 2022, according to Amnesty International.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

Russia’s release of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, former US Marine Paul Whelan and Russian-American journalist Alsu Kurmasheva is cause for celebration: The three were freed as part of a sweeping prisoner exchange that also saw the release of prominent Russian opposition leader Vladimir Kara-Murza and other opponents of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

But the Russians can also count a win. This was not an episode ripped from a John le Carré-style thriller, with spies on both sides being exchanged across a bridge. Instead, the Kremlin collected human collateral – journalists and opposition figures, both Russian and foreign – to secure the release of Russians apparently serving the interests of the state.

Among those headed back to Russia are convicted hackers and several Russian nationals detained in the West for spying. And the biggest prize for Russia was the return of Vadim Krasikov, a convicted hitman whose release had been publicly sought by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Krasikov was convicted by a German court of the 2019 killing of Zelimkhan “Tornike” Khangoshvili, an ethnic Chechen of Georgian nationality, in a Berlin park. In a February interview with right-wing media personality Tucker Carlson, Putin cast the assassination of Khangoshvili as a public service, describing Krasikov as “a man who, for patriotic reasons, eliminated a bandit.”

The release of Krasikov and others accused of espionage appears to send a familiar message. If you work for us, you will ultimately be rewarded and protected. And if you betray us, our memories are long.

Take the case of Viktor Bout, the Russian who was exchanged in 2022 for basketball star Brittney Griner. Described as “one of the world’s most prolific arms dealers” by the US Department of Justice – and the inspiration for the anti-hero of the Hollywood film Lord of War – Bout was long suspected of ties to Russian intelligence services.

After his return to Russia, Bout found a place in politics, winning a seat in a regional legislature. He had flattering interviews in the press and appeared at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, the favorite annual talking-shop for Putin and the Russian elite.

Anna Chapman, one of 10 Russian sleeper agents deported from the US in a 2010 prisoner swap, was also feted on her return to Russia.  She was elected to a pro-government board. She also launched her own line of clothing.

Chapman and nine other so-called “illegals” were traded for four people, including former Russian military intelligence officer Sergei Skripal, who had been convicted of spying for the United Kingdom.

Skripal and his daughter Yulia survived poisoning with the nerve agent Novichok in the English cathedral city of Salisbury in 2018. Britain blamed the poisoning on Russia; Russia has consistently denied involvement, although Putin referred to Skripal as a “scumbag” and a “traitor,” his contempt suggesting that Skripal had gotten his just desserts.

The long arm of the Kremlin also seemed apparent in the 2006 poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko, a former Russian agent turned whistleblower. Both a 2016 British inquiry and the European Court of Human Rights concluded the two men who allegedly poisoned Litvinenko – former KGB and FSB employee Andrei Lugovoi and former Russian army officer Dmitri Kovtun – were acting on behalf of the Russian state.

Lugovoi went on to win a seat in the Russian parliament. He won an “Order of Merit” medal from Putin in 2015.

This pattern of history, then, reinforces a message to all who work the Russian state – and especially for its massive security and intelligence apparatus – that Russia looks after its own. Putin, after all, is a graduate of the intelligence services, and knows the code of honor that is peculiar to world of Russian espionage.

But what does this complex deal tell us about Russia’s ongoing confrontation with the West? Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, relations between Moscow and Washington have been at an all-time low. But the negotiations that led to Thursday’s swap show that channels of communication between US and Russian officials remain open.

And even with the Ukraine war raging, top US and Russian generals have also kept crucial lines of communication open, in large part to keep the United States and Russia from veering inadvertently into open conflict.

The exchange of Russian opposition figures, however, is also a sort of victory for the Kremlin. Even in prison, individuals such as Vladimir Kara-Murza – who was serving a lengthy sentence for treason – retained stature internationally as prisoners of conscience. Dissidents such as Russian artist Alexandra Skochilenko, who was sentenced to seven years for a protest that involved putting anti-war messages on price tags in a Russian grocery store – have laid bare the absurdity of Russia’s draconian wartime media laws.

The exchange, at least in the short term, means those anti-war voices are exiled, and not a threat to the system. The release of Russians in the swap means that Russia’s political climate is no less repressive.

And in geopolitical terms, little changes. Following the prisoner exchange, the West will still have to confront a Russian leadership that has made clear what its priorities are: protecting the interests of the security state and maintaining a path of open hostility toward the West.

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Yuval Green, a 26-year-old former paratrooper, is one of a handful of soldiers who have served in Israel’s war against Hamas and are now publicly criticizing the way it is being prosecuted.

Green described the behavior and alleged misdeeds of his reservist peers while serving in the Palestinian enclave, and the day he decided to tell his commanders he could no longer be part of his unit.

Israel launched its military offensive in Gaza on October 7 after Hamas attacked southern Israel. At least 1,200 people were killed, and more than 250 others abducted in the assault, according to Israeli authorities.

Israeli military action in the strip has killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians and injured over 90,000, according to Gaza’s Ministry of Health. As of early July, nearly 2 million people had been displaced in Gaza – almost the entire population, according to figures from the United Nations.

“When the 7th of October struck, it was difficult for me at this time to tell them that I’m not willing to come with them,” Green said. “So I decided to join my friends … I didn’t know what would be the right thing to do.”

Atmosphere of ‘demonizing Gazans’

“In the days before we entered Khan Younis … there was this atmosphere that was kind of growing of demonizing the Gazans,” he said, adding that he heard people “speaking about killing, ruining all of Gaza. Wiping it out became something that people (were discussing), as if it was some kind of a legitimate idea.”

IDF rules of engagement in Gaza have been under great scrutiny. Green claims that IDF commanders on the ground seemed to acquiesce to soldiers’ desires to have fewer restrictions on their conduct than in previous incursions.

“I felt like my commanders were trying to kind of go with the soldiers and try to say things that they thought … (were) what the soldiers wanted to hear. You know, saying things like, ‘We’re not going to have any boundaries in Gaza this time.’”

Green said he did not serve during earlier cycles of violence in Gaza but took part in guard duty on the Gaza perimeter and in the West Bank, as well as training.

‘We don’t care enough’ about Palestinian lives

The war in Gaza has caused widespread material destruction to homes, infrastructure, hospitals and schools. Green says he witnessed the “unnecessary” destruction of Palestinian homes.

“We’ve seen a lot of destruction that was not necessarily related to military reasons. Everything tends to (get) really mix up, you know – people are destroying houses because they believe that they should (get) revenge (for) what happened on (October 7) and it mixes up with the reasons to destroy houses for military reasons,” Green said, adding he witnessed “chaos … I could tell you 100% that we’ve destroyed houses at least for reasons that … we don’t care enough about the lives of Palestinians.”

Describing the extent of the damage in Gaza, he said, “You can’t imagine it. Cities that are completely ruined.”

Accusations of looting

“You’re seeing looting by your peers all the time. That was something (that) was very difficult for me to see. I mean, people were taking ‘souvenirs’ (from) the Palestinians’ houses, which I think directly relates to the demonization we’ve seen before the entrance to Khan Younis,” he said. “People were taking, you know, necklaces and doing graffiti on the walls and … leaving behind damage to the houses that was just completely unnecessary.”

When asked if he thinks this behavior was condoned by IDF commanders, Green said that officially, they disapproved of such conduct – but were unable to stop it.

“The superior commanders of the IDF, I think they do believe that this shouldn’t happen – looting or graffiti,” Green said. “But I don’t think (the IDF) has the resources to stop it, and I think, you know, it all comes down to the soldiers (in) the field. You can’t stop any soldier from doing things.”

While witnessing the alleged looting, Green said he confronted his peers, which resulted in “a lot of arguments,” but he was unable to sway his superiors to act: “Some of them agreed with me, some of them didn’t – or some of them, you know, were in between.”

“But all of them weren’t able to control our actions.”

The decision to leave

In the end, one specific moment pushed Green to make the tough decision to leave his unit: when a commander allegedly ordered the burning of a Palestinian home they were stationed in.

“At some point, my commander told my platoon to burn down the house we’re staying at,” Green recounted. “And I went to him, I approached him and I asked him, ‘Why are we doing that?’ And he gave me a few reasons, and I think those reasons were just not strong enough.”

“They were, you know, military type of reasons, but they (were mixed up with) the revenge type of reasons. Now, I think this is just what’s going on in Gaza. Israel is doing things because it needs to fulfil a type of military purpose, but it all mixes up with our need for – or the Israeli need for – revenge.”

“I said, ‘I’m not willing to participate in that. I’m not destroying a house that belonged to a few families that would become homeless because of that – and I’m leaving.’ And I just (left) with the next car that went out.”

Green said he decided to speak out publicly to put pressure on the Israeli government to accept a ceasefire and hostage deal. The Israeli government said this week that it was Hamas leadership that was preventing an agreement.

“I think there are concrete deals on the table right now, that Hamas is agreeing to, that make sense. I mean, those deals say that all the hostages would be freed – and Israel is not accepting the ending of the war. And this is crazy,” Green said.

Green added that Israel’s alleged refusal to accept a deal was causing the deaths of hostages. “I’ve seen it from within,” he said. “I mean, we said nothing before we entered Gaza about the hostages. We could have killed them, you know, any moment, and it’s something that has happened. We know about more than 10 hostages that were killed directly from Israeli bombings or, you know, the three hostages that were killed,” referring to an incident of friendly fire by the IDF in December, in which soldiers fatally shot three hostages.

“We have to tell our government to stop the war. This is the only right solution to save the lives of Palestinians that are dying every day and going through a living hell the past few months, saving the lives of soldiers, Israeli soldiers, that are now present in Gaza and dying every day, and obviously the lives of hostages.”

Facing criticism at home

In June, Green cosigned a letter with 40 other reservists refusing to serve in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. He is one of only three soldiers who have come out publicly, and his family and friends have voiced concern over his decisions.

“Obviously it’s something very controversial in Israel, but I was willing to sacrifice, you know, my privacy and (to come) out with a topic as controversial as that, because I believe that right now, it’s a matter of life and death.

“When people are criticizing me for that, and I’ve heard people … that said they were worried that I might get hurt in that process – that always felt very weird because, you know, I went inside Gaza. I literally have risked my life. But people are now more afraid that I might get hurt, you know, by just coming out with words,” he added. “It’s part of the problem with our situation right now.”

Reflecting on the violence committed by Hamas, he also urged Palestinians not to support Hamas or call for an intifada: “They don’t understand that those calling for violence are damaging the Palestinian cause, and have been killing Palestinians for years now … I support Palestine too, but don’t confuse between supporting Palestine and supporting the violence of Hamas.”

Responding to Green’s allegations, the IDF stated: “The actions of the IDF and its operational activity in particular are subject to Israeli law and international law, which is reflected, among other things, in the rules of engagement among other military orders … IDF commanders are guided by values of the IDF ​​and lead the soldiers on the battlefield in a professional manner. When events that defer from the expected conduct occur, they are handled by the commanders as required.

“In some cases, IDF forces are required to act to remove a threat posed to them from buildings located in the territory of the Gaza Strip. The destruction of buildings is done with the appropriate means. Actions done otherwise, and not as a result of operational needs, are contrary to the army’s orders and the IDF’s values ​​and are examined. Taking property that is not in accordance with the army’s orders is prohibited by law and is not in line with the values ​​of the IDF. Incidents in which forces acted not in accordance with the orders and the law are examined and will continue to be examined, including as part of investigations by the MPCID (Military Police Criminal Investigation Division). As a general rule, when details concerning concrete events are given, they are reviewed and dealt with accordingly.”

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Heavy rains and floods from Typhoon Gaemi caused at least 30 deaths and left 35 people missing across eight towns in the southern Chinese province of Hunan, state-run news agency Xinhua reported on Thursday, citing local authorities.

On Thursday, rescue teams reached eight towns that had been cut off from the outside world since last Sunday, due to destroyed infrastructure and power grids.

“As of 12:00 on August 1, the roads, electricity, and communications in the eight towns in Zixing City most severely affected by Typhoon Gaemi are largely restored, and search and rescue efforts have made significant progress,” the local authorities confirmed to Xinhua.

Rescue operations are still underway, local authorities said.

In response to the severe flooding in Hunan, China raised its emergency response level to better support local disaster relief efforts and ensure basic living security for the affected people, the country’s Ministry of Emergency Management said Thursday.

Typhoon Gaemi initially made landfall in China on the evening of Thursday July 25, with winds approaching 110 kph (70 mph). The storm continued west-northwest through China, bringing heavy rainfall and winds, with forecasters predicting that rainfall could range from 150 to 250 mm (6 to 10 inches), with amounts up to 400 mm (15 inches) in higher elevation areas and along the coast.

The storm previously caused torrential flooding in Taiwan, with rainfall in five townships totaling over 1,285mm (50 inches).

Typhoon Gaemi was deflected off its forecasted track by Taiwan’s mountainous terrain and spent more than six hours offshore, making a loop near the Hualien coastline instead of making landfall on the evening of Wednesday, July 24.

Farther south, Gaemi had also flooded much of the Philippine capital after it worsened torrential monsoon rains.

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Protests erupted in multiple cities across Nigeria Thursday as frustrated citizens took to the streets, voicing their anger over increasing hunger and “bad governance.”

The demonstrations are part of a larger wave of unrest spreading across Africa in places such as Kenya, Uganda, Ghana and now Nigeria.

The demonstrations spiraled out of control in parts of the country, including the northern Yobe and Kano states where authorities declared a 24-hour curfew as private and public properties were looted in chaotic scenes that also saw many vehicles burned.

In Kano, protesters stormed and looted a Digital Innovation Park scheduled to open next week, Communications Minister Bosun Tijani said.

Gunshots rang out in the capital Abuja and also in the neighboring Niger state as police lobbed tear gas to disperse defiant protesters. In Niger, at least six people are now feared dead, local media reported.

Abiodun said police officers also dispersed protesters who had occupied a major highway, adding that “there was no loss of life.”

In Abuja, protesters gathered outside the national stadium, where they faced off with pro-government supporters.

“The protesters became violent and began throwing stones at the police, reasons why the police had to disperse them,” she said.

‘Ten days of rage’

Demonstrators gathered under the ‘End Bad Governance in Nigeria’ coalition, using the slogan “10 Days of Rage,” and are demanding the reinstatement of a fuel subsidy whose abrupt removal last May caused a dramatic spike in the cost of food, transportation, and other commodities.

These increases have hit a populace already struggling with widespread unemployment and soaring inflation of 34%, the highest level in nearly 30 years.

One protester in the Nigerian capital told the national Channels Television that he was forced to join the Thursday protests due to hunger.

“Hunger … brought me out. I don’t have money to buy fuel … there’s total bad government. It’s 10 days (of rage). We’ll remain on the streets till our demands are met.”

Dele Farotimi, a spokesperson for the coalition coordinating the protests, attributed the large nationwide turnout of protesters to hunger, which he says “unifies every Nigerian across the political, ethnic, and religious divides.”

Ahead of the protests, President Bola Tinubu called for calm, urging citizens not to take to the streets as he feared that it “could degenerate into violence and set the country backwards.”

The government also announced last-minute measures to halt the demonstrations but they proved unsuccessful.

On Monday, Tinubu signed into law a bill that doubled the national minimum wage from N30,000 ($18.06) a month to N70,000 ($42.14). He also approved the removal of taxes on food imports, which his office said would address food inflation.

“Most of the demands that the protesters are making are actually being addressed by the federal government,” Information Minister Mohammed Idris told a press conference Monday, adding that the government had opened centers across the nation where rice would be sold to citizens “at about 50% of its cost.”

Protesters are also calling for the government to address the country’s worsening security problems, amid challenges including kidnappings for ransom.

“In the northern part of Nigeria, the largest part of our country … the primary cause of hunger is insecurity. The people cannot go to their farms. A lot of people are living in internally displaced persons camps. So you have a lot of disruptions on account of insecurity which is manifesting in both banditry, kidnapping, and terrorism,” Farotimi said.

Leaders living in luxury

This is the first major coordinated protest in Nigeria since the deadly EndSARS demonstrations against police brutality in 2020, which resulted in deaths and injuries after security forces opened fire on unarmed protesters.

He added that Nigerians were also pained watching their leaders live in luxury while they struggled to make ends meet.

“It has gotten to that point where the people just need to be heard,” he said.

Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu has faced a backlash over his government’s spending plans despite the country’s mounting debts and cost-of-living crisis.

Last year, lawmakers rejected plans for a multimillion-dollar presidential yacht before approving a budget that allocated millions of dollars for a presidential fleet, including the purchase of SUV vehicles for the presidency and the First Lady’s Office.

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