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Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz continued their blitz through the country’s battleground states Wednesday, rallying supporters in the Midwest and seeking to sustain their momentum as Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance followed closely behind and escalated his attacks on the Democratic ticket.

Harris’s and Vance’s planes landed within minutes of each other Wednesday in Eau Claire, Wis., before they held dueling events just four miles apart. The gatherings had very different tones: Harris and Walz rallied more than 12,000 boisterous supporters outdoors, while Vance appeared with a handful of workers at an aviation factory at an event largely designed for the media.

The split screen underscored how much the presidential race has transformed since President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid on July 21. For years, former president Donald Trump has traveled the country to hold rallies with thousands of adoring supporters, while Biden usually appeared in carefully curated spaces, rarely able to draw a large crowd.

For the moment, the Democrats have flipped that dynamic. Harris has held several packed rallies in the past two weeks while Trump has not appeared at a public event since Saturday night when he campaigned in Atlanta. He is scheduled to return to the campaign trail on Friday for a rally in Bozeman, Mont.

Vance has been deployed in his stead, essentially trolling Harris and Walz as they campaign together following the vice president’s selection of her running mate on Tuesday. Arriving shortly after Harris in Eau Claire, Vance walked over to Air Force Two to taunt Harris for not engaging more with the media. Republicans have criticized her for rarely taking questions from journalists since becoming the likely Democratic nominee.

“I figured I’d come by and, one, just take a good look at the plane because hopefully it’s going to be my plane in a few months, but I also thought you guys might get lonely because the vice president doesn’t answer questions from reporters,” Vance told reporters while Harris was still on the plane.

At their rally, Harris and Walz ripped into Trump and sought to make their case to rural voters. Harris repeated what has become a favorite line, noting that she took on predators and fraudsters as a prosecutor: “So hear me when I say, I know Donald Trump’s type. I know his type. In fact, I’ve been dealing with people like him my whole career.”

Walz, who grew up in a small town in Nebraska and lives less than 90 miles from Eau Claire, has been leaning into his Midwestern background as he works to introduce himself to a national audience.

The governor discussed his time as a high school social studies teacher and football coach, as well as his 12 years in Congress representing a conservative district. After asking if there were any Minnesotans in the crowd, Walz shifted his focus to highlight what he said were the differences between the Democratic ticket and Trump.

“We don’t shy away from challenges, but I’ll tell you what: Donald Trump, he sees the world differently than we see it,” Walz said. “He has no understanding of service because he’s too busy servicing himself — again and again and again.”

Following the Wisconsin rally, the Harris campaign took a page out of Trump’s playbook, holding a large rally in a hangar at Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport with Air Force Two sitting in the background. A DJ played Beyonce’s “Run The World (Girls),” continuing a theme in which several speakers have focused on Harris’s push to become the first woman elected U.S. president.

The Harris campaign has struggled to find venues large enough to hold the crowds of people who are hoping to see Harris and Walz, in person, according to a campaign aide, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the planning.

Walz’s addition to the ticket, Democrats hope, will help them peel support away from Trump in largely White and rural areas that typically back Republicans by large margins. In what is shaping up to be a strikingly close race, winning even a slightly bigger proportion of those voters in states such as Wisconsin and Michigan could be critical.

Harris, who spent much of her career in deep-blue San Francisco, is trying to move beyond the “ultraliberal” label from Trump and broaden her outreach to voters who will decide the election in the Midwest.

“I promise you, our campaign is going to reach out to everyone, from red states, from blue states, from the heartland to the coast,” she said. “We are running a campaign on behalf of all Americans. We will govern on behalf of all Americans. And we’re clear about this, unlike the other side, we work for you.”

Republicans reject this characterization, depicting Harris and Walz as extreme liberals. They cite Minnesota’s protection of gender-affirming care under Walz’s leadership, for example, and his extension of driver’s licenses to all residents regardless of their immigration status.

“What Kamala Harris is telling all of us by selecting Tim Walz is that she bends the knee to the far left of the Democrat Party,” Vance said Wednesday. “She’s done it every single time in government. She’s done it in who she selected as her VP nominee, and she will do it if the American people give her a promotion to president of the United States.”

In contrast to the Democrats’ large rallies, Vance has held small events, designed to attack Harris and Walz in front of cameras. He first visited a police department in Shelby Township, Mich., on Wednesday morning, assailing Harris and Walz for their record on immigration and policing. He attacked Walz as a “radical human being” and accused him of exaggerating his military record and quitting the National Guard to avoid a deployment to Iraq.

Walz’s defenders note that his retirement came after he had served more than two decades in the National Guard.

“Every month thousands of people retire,” former U.S. congressman Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, a Republican and a military veteran who supports Harris, posted on X. “The fact that Walz did 25 years, 5 OVER retirement eligibility, and 4 years after 9/11, is honorable. Many people at 25 years today would get out even if there was a deployment possibility because they DID THEIR DUTY.”

In Wisconsin, Vance appeared with a few dozen factory workers who make aviation equipment at Wollard International. He focused his remarks on Harris, largely ignoring Walz as he questioned whether the Minnesota governor would still be on the ticket in the coming weeks, given the tumult in the Democratic Party over the past month. The party officially certified Harris and Walz as its nominees on Tuesday.

Vance also blamed Harris for fentanyl deaths in the United States and for sending jobs overseas, promising that a Trump-Vance administration would heighten border security and place tariffs on Chinese goods. He sought to burnish his image as an everyday American, a depiction that Walz and other Democrats have attacked by describing Vance and Trump as “weird.”

Asked by a reporter why Wisconsinites would want to have a beer with him, Vance laughed before saying he and Trump can admire and listen to “normal people” in a way others can’t. He also said he enjoys beer, a noted contrast to Trump and Walz, who do not drink alcohol.

“I guess they’d want to have a beer with me because I actually do like to drink beer, and I probably like to drink beer a little bit too much, but that’s okay,” Vance said. “I’m sure the media won’t give me too much crap over that.”

Harris and Walz were slated to campaign in the seven most competitive battleground states over the course of four days, though events in North Carolina and Georgia were postponed because of Tropical Storm Debby. Vance, who has largely been following in the Democrats’ footsteps this week, like them appeared in Philadelphia on Tuesday and was scheduled to campaign in North Carolina on Thursday, though his events were similarly postponed because of the weather.

Since Biden dropped out of the race, Democrats have flocked to Harris’s rallies, exhibiting a level of energy and enthusiasm that many in the party concede has been absent for years. The Harris campaign said it raised $36 million in the 24 hours since Harris announced Walz as her running mate, adding to its massive fundraising haul since Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed the vice president.

Three hours before Harris and Walz took the stage in Eau Claire, the line of cars trying to park at the event stretched more than a mile-and-a-half down the road.

Tammy Hanley, 53, jumped up and down when asked how she felt about Harris being the Democratic Party’s nominee. Hanley, a special-education teacher from Anchorage, was visiting family in Minnesota and changed her flight to attend the rally.

“I’m going to cry when I see her,” Hanley said. “I feel so much more hopeful about the future. Everyone is feeling more hopeful.”

Hanley’s niece, Sydney Hooppaw, 20, said that three weeks ago, when Biden was still running for reelection, she was not sure if she was going to vote. “It just felt like the options weren’t great,” she said

But now, Hooppaw said, she is thrilled to vote for president for the first time, particularly to cast her ballot for Harris, who could become the country’s first female president. “I might cry, too,” she said, laughing.

Rodriguez and Kornfield reported from Eau Claire, Wis., and Markus from Shelby Township, Mich. Toluse Olorunnipa in Detroit contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

Donald Trump’s candidacy appeared all but destined for victory only weeks ago.

He rose defiant from the bullet graze of an attempted assassination, hoisting his fist in the air with a unified party at his back, a growing lead in the polls, dissolving criminal prosecutions — and a struggling opponent, President Joe Biden, facing a full-blown revolt from within his own party. Trump mocked the idea of Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the new Democratic nominee, calling her “so pathetic.”

As staffers and allies gathered at the GOP nominating convention in Milwaukee last month, some privately discussed what administration jobs certain people wanted — and predicted a landslide election. There was talk of spending money in states where Republicans haven’t won in decades.

“At the convention, it was game over, and the Democrats realized that,” said Richard Porter, a member of the Republican National Committee from Illinois. “It felt like it was too good to be true, and it was. It’s amazing how quickly they coalesced behind another candidate.”

Trump now finds himself back in a dead-even contest and with new signs of strain in his orbit. In the face of new Democratic momentum, he has grown increasingly upset about Harris’s surging poll numbers and media coverage since replacing Biden on the ticket, complaining relentlessly and asking friends about how his campaign is performing, according to five people close to the campaign who like some others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.

“It’s unfair that I beat him and now I have to beat her, too,” Trump told an ally in a phone call last weekend.

Allies have taken to finger-pointing over several events that seemingly went off the rails. Friends, Mar-a-Lago members and donors have logged their concerns with Trump, who then tells them to others, according to three people close to him. U.S. Senate allies and others are trying to get Trump focused on attacking Harris.

“We had a lot of good things happen in a row that were unsustainable, but we’ve hit a few speed bumps,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a Trump ally, said in an interview. “There’s been a rough spot.”

The Trump campaign, for its part, remains confident that he will win decisively in November, with aides saying they never took the advantages in July for granted or let their guard down. The former president remains ahead or tied in most of the swing states and continues to attract large crowds, with the cash on hand in total not far from the Democratic operation.

“The Trump campaign has never taken anything for granted and we always fight like we’re the underdogs,” Steven Cheung, a Trump spokesman, said in a statement. “That’s especially true after an assassination attempt on President Trump heading into Convention. Our sole job is to help President Trump win the election, and we’re going to beat the brakes off the dangerously liberal Kamala-Walz ticket.”

But for the first time since Trump established his dominance in the Republican nomination fight, his campaign has found itself publicly struggling to manage the daily news cycle as excitement around Harris has swelled along with her campaign activity. It has left people close to the campaign wondering why Trump and his team seemed ill-prepared, given that they had privately speculated for weeks after Biden’s disastrous June 27 debate performance that Harris was going to be the nominee.

“What’s happened in the last couple of weeks is we actually have a real race. This is a real presidential campaign. The Biden-Trump version of this was one event a week by each candidate, very rarely on the campaign trail and no real engagement,” said Kevin Madden, a Republican strategist who worked for Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential effort. “Now this is going to be one of those campaigns where strategies matter, resources matter, time matters, and there is not much room for error.”

People familiar with the campaign’s inner workings say there is no staff freakout — nor have there been dramatic fights between senior advisers in recent days, a hallmark of previous Trump campaigns where things went awry. Staff have been meeting to discuss polls, spending and upcoming events at the campaign’s headquarters.

Cheung dismissed the allies and Trump advisers questioning the campaign’s effectiveness as “unnamed sources who have no idea what they are talking about and are doing nothing but helping Democrats.”

“We have always thrived under pressure because we take our cues from President Trump,” he said. “With his leadership, we continue to prove everyone wrong. Anyone on the outside who continues to complain simply hasn’t been battle-tested or gone through the adversity we have and come out on top.”

But there is no doubt that some of his big advantages have faded.

The fundraising edge advantages Trump enjoyed for two months has been swallowed by Harris’s $310 million fundraising surge in July — about $170 million more than he announced for the same month. The much-larger Harris campaign now appears poised to take advantage of a new outpouring of grassroots energy, including more than 1.3 million voters who signed up for campaign events since she entered the race for president, according to her campaign.

Despite going up with his first television spots of the general election, Trump and his allies are still being outspent in the battleground states. Over the first five days of August, Trump and his allies spent about $16.5 million on advertising, according to AdImpact, compared with about $23 million by Biden, Harris and their allies. From the beginning of March to early August, the Biden side has spent $309 million, compared with $110 million for the Trump side, according to the ad-tracking firm.

While Trump has repeatedly said Republican Party officials only needed to focus on election integrity, he has begun hearing from outside allies that he does not have a significant ground game in key battleground states. He has grown annoyed with some of the media focus on his campaign staff, suggesting to others that his advisers get too much credit. Some advisers have urged him to spend more on digital advertising, saying he is being pummeled online.

Democrats and some in Trump’s orbit have tried to highlight social media posts from Trump advisers and allies that they say show fear or bad messaging, while trying to stoke division in other ways. The Harris campaign has circulated posts and news releases about his staff, the pick of Sen. JD Vance (Ohio) as vice president, crowd size and other topics they say will grate on Trump and cause him to say controversial things.

“It’s easy to live in Donald Trump’s head,” one Harris aide wrote, suggesting a story about crowd size now that Harris draws a crowd as big or larger than Trump’s rallies.

Harris, meanwhile, has been traveling more on the campaign trail than Trump, who is fundraising this week in Florida. Since the June 27 debate, Trump has held eight campaign rallies, besides his nominating convention, including events in Minnesota, Florida and Virginia, all outside the main battleground map.

Harris will visit six states this week. Beyond interviews, the only event Trump has scheduled is a rally in Montana, a state where he is almost certain to win by double digits. Democrats wonder about the state of Trump’s operation, while the former president’s advisers note that he has campaigned for 21 months.

“Of all weeks when he has to blunt the momentum of Kamala Harris, you would have expected him to be very aggressive this week,” said Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist.

Trump has begun asking friends and allies how his campaign staff is doing — a question that some say could lead to staff changes, though the former president has not said he is planning that and has expressed support for campaign aides in recent days, a person close to him said. He has asked why Harris is raising so much more money than him, people familiar with the comments say. Trump has also repeatedly raised the large crowds that Harris is getting compared with Biden, people who have spoken to him said.

Some Trump advisers grew alarmed last week when Kellyanne Conway arrived at his Bedminster, N.J., golf resort for a meeting and posted about it on X. Conway, who was the manager of his winning campaign in 2016, has a long relationship with Trump and has questioned some of the campaign’s decisions but has not specified any personnel changes she thinks Trump should make, according to people who have spoken to her.

“The Kamala bump was a direct cause from the Biden slump,” Conway said in an interview. “There was nowhere for his successor to go but up in fundraising and enthusiasm. But this remains President Trump’s election to lose. The electoral map and underlying fundamentals favor him.”

While accepting the Republican nomination at the convention, in his first speech since the shooting, advisers wanted him to give a sober and hopeful address about the future. He began by telling an emotional tale of his shooting but wandered off the teleprompter remarks dozens of times, stretching the speech “past the point where it was productive,” a campaign official said. Inside the arena, loyal attendees could be heard grumbling as they exited about how long the speech was. Several people close to Trump described it as a missed opportunity.

Inside his campaign, there have been frustrations about some of his other comments, people close to Trump say. When he went to a National Association of Black Journalists event in Chicago, he made unplanned remarks that suggested Harris was not really Black.

“I didn’t know she was Black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn Black and now she wants to be known as Black. So, I don’t know, is she Indian or is she Black?” Trump said falsely.

While the campaign sought to defend his comments, Trump was frustrated by the event. He did not know that Harris was not going to appear, that the journalists were going to ask such tough questions and that there would be a fact-checking component to the event, one person who spoke with him about it said.

His team has sought to attack her on policy grounds while casting her as unfit. They have pushed arguments about rising numbers of undocumented immigrants crossing the southern border, inflation that rose while she was vice president, her record as a California politician and her comments backing certain liberal positions in the past, such as supporting the Green New Deal.

At his rally in Atlanta this weekend, Trump veered way off-script to attack Brian Kemp, a popular Georgia governor who would not seek to overturn the 2020 election for him. He spent a large portion of his comments slashing Kemp, who previously had considered appearing with the former president this fall. In the days after, Kemp’s team have not heard from Trump’s campaign, even as some outside advisers have sought a détente.

Erick Erickson, a conservative Georgia radio show host, said he was flooded with calls from suburban voters who were angry with Trump’s attacks on Kemp. Ericksen said he still believed Trump will probably win Georgia.

“All attacking Kemp does is remind people why they didn’t like him,” he said. “He makes it closer than it should be. That’s the problem. You’re not going to have Kemp on the campaign trail for him, which you could have had.”

Cheung, the Trump spokesman, dismissed concerns expressed by allies about the campaign and its messaging. “Our message discipline is second to none,” he said. “It’s why President Trump was able to take out Joe Biden in the debate, it’s why we’ve been so successful thus far, and it’ll be why President Trump will win the election.”

Several people close to the campaign said there was an ongoing effort to get Trump to focus on attacking Harris and slashing Democrats. Trump enjoyed an advantage of two percentage points over Biden in a Washington Post average of national polls taken in July, before the president bowed out. Harris is polling four percentage points ahead of Biden’s number in a Post average of national polls since then, giving her a one-point edge over Trump.

“This is really Trump’s race to lose,” Graham said. “I hope we’ll get more focused on prosecuting the case against her. I think he was frustrated originally, but over the last couple days, we’ve had good conversations and I think we have the wind at our back.”

A Tuesday afternoon post from Trump on his Truth Social media site — which included a number of nicknames, falsehoods and baseless accusations — suggested he was still steaming.

“What are the chances that Crooked Joe Biden, the WORST President in the history of the U.S., whose Presidency was Unconstitutionally STOLEN from him by Kamabla, Barrack HUSSEIN Obama, Crazy Nancy Pelosi, Shifty Adam Schiff, Cryin’ Chuck Schumer, and others on the Lunatic Left, CRASHES the Democrat National Convention and tries to take back the Nomination, beginning with challenging me to another DEBATE,” the post read. “He feels that he made a historically tragic mistake by handing over the U.S. Presidency, a COUP, to the people in the World he most hates, and he wants it back, NOW!!!”

Clara Ence Morse contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on washingtonpost.com

As a long-term stock trader, one development in the stock market takes me and many others to our collective knees. It’s a Volatility Index ($VIX) that rises past 20. There has never been a bear market that’s unfolded with a VIX that remains below 20. FEAR, besides the obvious price decline, is the common denominator in every bear market decline.

I’ve shown this VIX chart many times, but now that the VIX has soared since the Fed meeting, it’s certainly an appropriate time to remind ourselves of one simple market fact.

Stock market performance is at its absolute worst with a VIX above 20. Check out the chart below.

This should at least open your eyes to the possibility of lower prices. These calculations date back to S&P 500 ($SPX) performance after April 10, 2013, when the S&P 500 cleared the double top from 2000 and 2007, confirming a new secular bull market was in place.

The rally since Monday’s opening bell has been nice, but very few key resistance levels have been cleared. Early tests are here, or rapidly approaching, right now. Let’s look at a few key indices on an hourly chart. Many times, the declining 20-hour exponential moving average (EMA) provides solid near-term resistance, stopping the initial bullish wave in its tracks. Take a look:

S&P 500 ($SPX)

NASDAQ 100 ($NDX)

Semiconductors ($DJUSSC):

Failing at these key resistance levels doesn’t mean a bear market is underway. It simply increases the odds that the resistance levels provided will be difficult resistance to overcome initially. Likewise, a break through above key short-term resistance isn’t a precursor to new all-time highs around the corner. I’m simply watching these levels as a “piece” of the Q3 puzzle, trying to determine whether the odds of a further decline are increasing or decreasing.

Nine days ago, I held a “Why the S&P 500 May Tumble” webinar, providing members with a ChartList of various price and economic charts they should watch in determining the likelihood of a big decline. That webinar paid off handsomely as our EB members were able to plan ahead for the increasing odds of a significant market decline. Now members, not too surprisingly, are asking in droves whether this is a pullback to buy back stocks cheaper or if this is more likely to be a much deeper correction or even a bear market that’s developing.

These two choices are miles apart and getting this next step right will be the difference between a very painful Q3, one in which a lot of money might be lost, or setting up one of those “buying opportunities of a lifetime.”

I can’t answer all of our members’ questions one at a time, so late yesterday afternoon, I decided to host the obvious next step webinar, “HUGE Selling and Rising Fear: Pullback or CRASH??” This is a members-only event and it will begin at 4:30pm ET, just after today’s close. If you’re not a member, but would like to attend, we’ve got you covered. Simply CLICK HERE for more information and to register as a FREE 30-day trial member.

This is another HUGE event and I’d love to see you there!

Happy trading!

Tom

Just Another Manic Monday? On Monday, the Nasdaq plunged over 3%. With the S&P 500 dropping a similar amount and the Dow plummeting over 1,000 points (a 2.6% drop), it was the biggest one-day drop since September 2022. Still, Japan’s Nikkei experienced a far more severe decline, plummeting by a staggering 12%; its worst downfall since the infamous Black Monday on Wall Street in 1987.

The main driver? Fears of a potential US recession sparked by the latest disappointing July jobs report. Adding to the worry is that the Federal Reserve may be a little too slow to cut interest rates.

Tech Rebound or Stock Market Mayhem?

The Magnificent Seven’s $714 wipeout Monday played a huge role in sinking the tech-heavy Nasdaq as it makes up over 40% of the Nasdaq 100. Adding to the chaos, a judge ruled against Google’s antitrust practices, and Berkshire Hathaway slashed its stake in Apple. 

As the Nasdaq and the broader market bounce back in early Tuesday trading, investors are eyeing the rally and wondering: is this the start of a comeback or just a brief pause before another slide?

To get a clearer picture of the Nasdaq’s price action, let’s zoom out and look at a weekly chart of the Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX).

CHART 1. WEEKLY CHART OF THE NASDAQ 100. Despite the severity of Monday’s drop, the longer-term uptrend seems intact.

The range of Monday’s drop (see blue circle on the right) was far greater than most weekly ranges, and this was on a single day. 

But as you can see, the candle appears to have reversed the initial drop, bouncing off the 50-period simple moving average (SMA); the longer-term uptrend is intact.

But what if the Nasdaq were to drop further? Which levels might be prime buying opportunities, and which might scream “stay away”? Let’s switch to a daily chart of Invesco QQQ Trust ETF, a Nasdaq 100 proxy. 

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF QQQ. Momentum is weak, but indications of potential support for further downside movement are clear.

You can see the QQQ bounced off the 200-day SMA, which aligns closely with the weekly chart’s bounce off the 50-period SMA. The uptrend appears undisturbed by the recent selloff.

Keep an eye on momentum via the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF); it’s still in the “selling pressure” zone. If it doesn’t turn around, the rebound might lack the momentum to sustain itself.

But if market sentiment and fundamental factors cause the QQQ to decline in the coming sessions, the range between $350 and $380 marks critical levels of potential support for the following reasons:

  • If the fundamental environment leans more bullish than bearish, the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement range constitutes an optimal entry point for those looking to buy the bounce.
  • This range is a concentrated hotspot for trading activity, as shown by the Volume-by-Price indicator, and aligns with a strong support level near $350, tested four times during summer and fall 2023 (see black rectangle). A drop below $350 can lead to more downside. So, keep $350 in mind as the key level where any bullish outlook might need a rethink.

What Are Analysts Saying?

It’s mixed. 

  • JPMorgan: Think there’s a 50% chance of a recession. They expect the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points in September and again in November (if not an earlier emergency cut).
  • Morgan Stanley: Playing it safe, they note the market’s seasonal weakness and doubt a second-half recovery. They see lower equity valuations and a bearish outlook in the short term.
  • Nomura: More upbeat than the rest, they see the “correction” as a buying opportunity as long as the Fed proceeds with rate cuts. Overall, they’re betting on the AI boom to continue fueling tech growth.
  • UBS: They see the current Volatility Index (VIX) action as a signal for a potential buy, but they also warn that there may be more downside risk.

Closing Trade

After Monday’s market mayhem, the Nasdaq is trying to reverse its drop, but analysts’ forecasts are split. While price action suggests a bold upside rebound, momentum indicates weakness in the bounce. Ultimately, the Nasdaq’s direction will hinge on market sentiment and the Fed’s moves. If short-term weakness drags the QQQ lower, keep an eye on the key levels mentioned above.


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Every day for two months, Michael Ofer Ziv spent hours watching grainy, black-and-white footage of the Gaza Strip from a tiny room across the border.

As an operations commander, he was tracking Israeli forces inside Gaza and approving airstrikes.

Every day, he said, his unit had a certain quota to fill.

One by one, buildings blew up on his screen like a hypnotic reel of destruction.

At first, it was easy to forget that those images were real, and not just a video game playing on a screen. But the more he stepped out of that war room, the more he was exposed to the reality of those strikes.

One minute, he was looking at soundless footage of airstrikes he ordered; the next, he was on his phone watching unfiltered videos of Palestinians shrieking, carrying their loved ones who had been killed because of the Israeli military.

“This is happening in real life and has an actual effect on those people… at some point, your brain kind of cannot disconnect those two things anymore,” he said.

Once he connected those dots, there was no going back.

Like thousands of Israeli reservists, Ofer Ziv was called up to war following the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, in which at least 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 others taken hostage, Israeli authorities said. He knew the army had to respond but was concerned about what that response might look like because of how widespread the language of revenge was.

His concerns were soon validated, he said.

In May, he and 40 other reservists signed an open letter declaring they would refuse to serve Israel’s war in Gaza again after the IDF launched a military offensive in Rafah, southern Gaza, where many of the civilians displaced by the conflict had fled.

They readily acknowledge that they represent a tiny minority of reservists who oppose the war, but they hope that their decision to take a public stand will spark a debate in Israeli society and put pressure on the government to prioritize a ceasefire deal.

“If we are deciding to go into Rafah instead of making a deal, I felt like it was a statement of us saying we care more about killing Palestinians and destroying Gaza than we (do) about actually finishing this, actually having a long-term solution, actually releasing the hostages,” Ofer Ziv said.

His conscience just wouldn’t allow him to continue. He couldn’t fathom the colossal number of casualties inflicted upon Palestinian civilians.

“There is also a decision here to not be as careful as we can be, or even be careless and disregard human life,” he said.

“I can count on my hand the amount of times we were told we are not allowed to shoot at something… the main vibe was we shoot first, ask questions later,” he added.

“The IDF does not aim to inflict excessive damage to civilian infrastructure and strikes exclusively on the grounds of military necessity and in strict accordance with international law,” it said.

‘Going to a very bad place’

And while Ofer Ziv was watching Gaza’s destruction from behind a screen, Yuval Green was witnessing it happen in real life.

Green served as a combat medic in Gaza between October and December last year. But a day before he was recruited for reserve duty, he was planning on leaving the army, he says, objecting to its treatment of Palestinians and the occupation of the West Bank.

The October 7 attacks made him delay his decision for the sake of his comrades.

Green said he felt his role was to protect the civilians who had been attacked on October 7 and thought the Israeli military would go in and target Hamas. He didn’t expect it to go on for as long as it did.

Just like Ofer Ziv, he was concerned before the war began about where it might go, because of how “furious” Israelis were.

“Ideas like killing the entire population of Gaza suddenly became almost normal… suddenly hearing our commanders say that we’re not going to be merciful this time… I felt like we were going to a very bad place,” he said.

Green recalled the immeasurable level of destruction he observed. While some commanders would order the demolition of houses for military purposes, most times it was because “they want to ruin Palestinian houses and they think that’s the right thing to do,” he said.

“They don’t really care about the lives of Palestinians… we’ve inflicted so much damage upon Gaza, something that would be beyond the imagination of any reasonable person… I can’t imagine how people would go back to living there,” he continued.

The final blow for him was when his commander ordered their platoon to burn down a house in the city of Khan Younis, southern Gaza, that he was sure would be rehabilitated after the war.

“I was trying to understand the reasons for that, if there is any military reason… and the commander just didn’t have good enough answers,” he said.

The next day, he hopped into a vehicle making a supply run out of Gaza, and never came back.

‘Losing so much’

Reservists who refuse to serve again, like Ofer Ziv and Green, could face serious consequences.

Disobeying an order and refusing to serve is both a disciplinary and criminal offense, according to Israeli human rights lawyer Michael Sfard.

In normal circumstances, reservists are not called up for more than a month at a time, so they are usually not tried consecutive times, he added.

“What it really boils down to is who your commander is and how they will react to your decision,” Sfard, who is a former refuser himself, said.

“There is a very delicate balance here between two interests the army has. One is, punish severely those who refuse to serve to deter others from doing the same. The other is not to give too much publicity to those who are not ready to serve, because then it causes others to follow them too.”

Despite the risks, both Green and Ofer Ziv are committed to their decision.

Green lamented the way Israel’s military culture has dominated the public sphere, making anyone who criticizes the war or refuses to serve be viewed as a traitor.

Those in his platoon have heard him speak out against the war and the military’s conduct since he’s left Gaza. Some respect his opinion, even if they disagree with it. Others have said he is “darkening their names,” he said.

“I felt this was a really stupid idea. How can I harm your names by saying the truth? You harmed your name yourself by doing the type of things that were done there,” he said.

Even though he risked his life in Gaza, he is dumbfounded by the fact that his friends and family are more concerned about his safety now he’s spoken out than they were back then.

“We could end the war today. Israel as the stronger player… could choose to do it and is choosing not to for several reasons… we’re losing so much, the Palestinians are losing so much, for every minute it’s not being signed,” he said.

Similarly, Ofer Ziv thinks bringing the issue of refusing military service into the public debate might “wake people up” and let them know that it’s an option not to participate.

“We have so many systems that are built so we won’t have to question the position we are in… I do prefer to go to jail than to participate in what we’re doing in Gaza, but I prefer to do neither if it’s possible.”

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Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said “it may be just and moral” to starve 2 million Gaza residents until Israeli hostages are returned, but “no one in the world would let us.”

In a speech on Monday at the Katif Conference for National Responsibility in the town of Yad Binyamin, the far-right minister said Israel should take control of distributing aid inside Gaza and claimed that Hamas was in control of distribution channels within the strip.

“It is impossible in today’s global reality to wage war – no one in the world would let us starve and thirst two million citizens, even though it may be just and moral until they return our hostages,” he said, adding that if Israel controlled aid distribution instead of Hamas, the war would have ended by now and the hostages would have returned.

“You cannot fight Hamas with one hand and give them aid with the other. It’s his (Hamas’) money, it’s his fuel, it’s his civilian control of the Gaza Strip. It just doesn’t work,” he said.

Israel has control over aid that enters Gaza and aid groups are in charge of distributing it. While there have been some anecdotal reports from Gazans of Hamas stealing aid, it’s unclear how rampant it is. US Special Envoy David Satterfield said in February that no Israeli official had presented him or the Biden administration with “specific evidence of diversion or theft of assistance.”

Israel is facing mounting criticism from aid groups and international organizations for restricting food aid to the besieged Gaza Strip. A United Nations statement, citing independent experts, indicated last month that famine has spread across the entire enclave. The experts accused Israel of conducting an “intentional and targeted starvation campaign,” which they termed a “form of genocidal violence.”

The International Criminal Court’s prosecutor is seeking arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on charges of “starvation as a weapon of war,” among other allegations.

Netanyahu has strongly denied the allegations, saying they are based on a “pack of lies.” He has said that if Palestinians in Gaza aren’t getting enough food, “it’s not because Israel is blocking it, it’s because Hamas is stealing it.”

Israel has stated that it will not end the war until all hostages are freed and Hamas is eliminated. The conflict began after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, killing around 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli authorities. The war has resulted in the deaths of more than 39,000 people in Gaza, according to Palestinian authorities.

Smotrich on Monday advocated for Israeli control of the aid effort “as a part or as an essential means of realizing the defined goals of the war,” and said only minimal aid is needed in Gaza in the months and years to come.

“No one talks about (Israeli) military rule (of Gaza) now. No need to unclog sewers, no need for education, no need for welfare. Gaza in the next two years is (going to be) a war zone. You need food, some medicine and a minimum of sanitation – water, sewage. That’s it,” he said.

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Like many nondescript hotels in provincial cities around the UK, the Holiday Inn Express in Rotherham has been used for years by the British government to house asylum seekers trapped in administrative limbo. There have been hostile protests here before. But none, residents say, like the spasm of hatred on Sunday when rioters set fire to the building as more than 200 people cowered inside.

“I lived through the (2011) London riots when I was a kid,” said a man who saw Sunday’s violence unfold from his living room. “I don’t even think they were this bad. We saw them trying to kill people yesterday,” said the resident – who, like many, wished to remain anonymous amid the fear stoked by the violence.

The Rotherham riot was one of more than a dozen protests that followed a stabbing attack that left three children dead in the northern English town of Southport a week ago. In the torrent of misinformation that flowed from the tragedy, outrage boiled over into racist violence.

The turmoil represents the first major challenge for Keir Starmer, Britain’s new prime minister, who now faces a summer of rumbling discontent.

In his former role of England’s chief prosecutor, Starmer presided over Britain’s last major wave of riots in London and elsewhere 13 years ago, allowing courts to sit for 24 hours and for judges to hand down longer, tougher sentences. Now, Starmer has fewer resources at his disposal: pared-back policing, gummed-up courts, a shortage of jail cells and more polarized politics.

The day after the unrest, the hotel is a ruin. The ground is strewn with broken glass and burnt-out bins. Some kids ride past on bikes out of curiosity: “Nowt happens here. We wanted to see what’s going on,” says one youngster. Differences of opinion swiftly become visible. Some locals chant from their windows as they drive by: “Get ’em out.” Others are more sympathetic. A mother drives past, points at the building and says to her children: “They came here to be safe, not to be tortured like that.”

The Rotherham riot was planned for days but has its roots in discontent that has fomented for much longer. For years, politicians have made increasingly strident promises to curb migration to the UK; for the most part, those promises have fallen short. Fringe voices have stepped into the breach, stoking fear over “out of control” immigration and amplifying fears that migrants are the source of all the problems experienced by Britons who struggle with rising living costs, poor housing conditions and a lack of skilled jobs.

Asylum seekers first came to the hotel in 2021, after the chaotic US military withdrawal from Afghanistan. Its rooms have since filled with refugees from all over the world. All were evacuated after Sunday’s violence, with reports that some were forced to sleep in the nearby woods after they fled in fear.

Ninzr said he had lived in the Rotherham hotel since he arrived, but was at another processing center when the riot broke out. He was planning to return to the hotel, but got a text from his friend inside. “They say to me, you go back now. My friend a video sent for me. Big problem. Fire,” he said in broken English. He collected his bag before heading back to another processing center in Birmingham.

‘I’ve never felt more scared’

Britain’s asylum system is in a mess. Ninzr is one of almost 100,000 people waiting for their claim for asylum to be processed. The cost of housing them has also ballooned. In a speech last month, the new finance minister Rachel Reeves claimed the previous government had overspent on the asylum system by more than £6.4 billion ($8.12 billion).

In Rotherham, a notorious grooming scandal casts a long shadow. Hundreds of girls were abused by gangs of south Asian men over decades, and when the exploitation was finally exposed, authorities were accused of failing to deal with it, in part, over fears they would be accused of racism. Eventually the gangs were busted, many of the perpetrators jailed, and systems were overhauled. But lingering suspicions mean that concerns about immigration often bubble to the surface.

But residents in the nearby estate all said residents had caused no major problems, other than “a bit of litter.”

“There’s all these claims on Facebook that they rape women,” said the man who lived through the London riots. “My wife walks our dogs late at night. No issues. They never cause any issues. They’ve come from war-torn countries, they’ve got nothing to do. They play football in the car park. They got excited last year when it snowed. They’d never seen snow before in their lives.

“These people – they’re not animals, they’re not savages, they’re not doing these things to people, they’re just people that are trying to get a better life.”

Another woman, walking her dog through the hotel parking lot, said she’d never had problems from the hotel residents.

“I’ve never felt more scared to live on the estate than I did yesterday – and that was from our own people. So I’d rather take 100 of them living in there, than I would people who did what they did yesterday, living next door to them,” said the woman, who also declined to give her name.

She said her brother-in-law, a police officer responding to the riot, was injured after someone threw a rock at his arm. “He didn’t leave straight away, so he was there for hours with a suspected broken arm trying to hold them off.” He spent the night in hospital and was diagnosed with a broken elbow.

Others, though, condemned the riots but were frustrated that the sentiments behind them had been allowed to foment. A man standing outside his house, which looks onto the hotel, remembered when the first Afghan families arrived in 2021.

“The community couldn’t do enough for them. They were amazing people. No trouble whatsoever. Then they just put whoever they wanted here,” he said.

He said he felt unfairly branded as “far right” for expressing a desire for the government to “fix” its asylum system. “In the 1970s, I was fighting against the National Front… so if I’m far right, go on, tell me,” he said.

A shrunken state

“Some of them were 14-year-old boys just chucking sticks at police. It was just like an opportunity to be mischievous,” said one 17-year-old, Elliott Nuttall, who saw the violence spread to his nearby village.

On Monday, he had been planning to meet up with a friend, an Indian boy whose family moved to the UK when he was five years old. “His mum said to him, ‘No, you’re not allowed to go out,’ because it’s obviously not a good time for it.”

“Knowing there was going to be a protest a good three or four days prior, knowing what was going on nationally, I can’t believe how underpoliced they were.”

Videos from Sunday show an initially light police presence as hundreds of far-right rioters hurled stones at the hotel’s windows, pushed a burning garbage bin into a broken doorway, and stormed the building.

Responding to the wave of violence will be a challenge for Britain’s shrunken state. Starmer has pledged that “far-right thugs” will feel the “full force of the law,” but that force has been sapped by years of slashed budgets as successive Conservative governments imposed “austerity” on public services in the UK in the fallout from the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

In a YouGov poll published late last year, fewer than half of people thought police were “doing a good job,” down from 77% four years earlier. Police numbers were cut drastically under the previous Conservative government, although had recently begun to be restored.

Britain’s court backlog has also swelled, particularly since the Covid-19 pandemic, making sentencing the convicted rioters more difficult. Jail space is also a problem: The new Labour government recently announced plans to release some prisoners early to free up space for new convicts.

Hundreds of people have been arrested following the riots, and on Tuesday a court in Sheffield, convicted the first of those arrested in relation to the violence at Rotherham, PA Media reported.

With more demonstrations planned for this week, do the residents near the Rotherham hotel fear more violence? “After seeing our community come out today, no,” said the man who lived through the London riots. “This community came out in numbers and looked after ourselves.”

“After seeing our community come out today, no,” said the man who lived through the London riots. “This community came out in numbers and looked after ourselves.”

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Hamas announced Tuesday that its leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, will replace Ismail Haniyeh as the head of its political bureau, it said in a statement.

The Hamas statement said that the movement announces “the selection of Commander Yahya Sinwar as head of the movement’s political bureau, succeeding the martyred leader Ismail Haniyeh, may God have mercy on him.”

Israel has publicly accused Sinwar of being the “mastermind” behind Hamas’ terror attack against Israel on October 7 – though experts say he is likely one of several – making him one of the key targets of its war in Gaza.

He has remained at large in the vast warren of tunnels trenched beneath Gaza, moving frequently and possibly surrounded by hostages as human shields, US officials believe.

Sinwar’s predecessor Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran last week, raising fears that Israel’s conflict with Hamas and its allies could develop into a multi-front, fully-fledged war in the Middle East.

The Iranian government and Hamas say that Israel carried out the assassination. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement.

A longtime figure in the Islamist Palestinian group, Sinwar was responsible for building up Hamas’ military wing before forging important new ties with regional Arab powers as the group’s civilian and political leader.

He was elected to Hamas’ main decision-making body, the Politburo, in 2017 as the political leader of Hamas in Gaza branch. However, he has since become the Politburo’s de facto leader, according to research by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

This is a developing story and will be updated.

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Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said his group will respond to Israel “regardless of the consequences” to avenge the assassination of the group’s top commander a week ago, but keeping Israelis waiting is “part of the punishment.”

“Their government, their army, their society, their settlements and their occupiers are all waiting,” Nasrallah said. Keeping Israel waiting is “part of the battle,” he added.

The monthslong, cross-border exchange of fire intensified Tuesday morning after Hezbollah launched a “swarm” of drones towards what it said are military targets in northern Israeli cities. The Israel Defense Forces said one drone was intercepted, and the incident left several people injured, including one man who was seriously wounded in the northern Israeli city of Nahariya.

Israel struck a building in southern Lebanon earlier killing five people. The Israeli military said the building was used by Hezbollah.

The region is bracing for an expected response from Hezbollah and Iran for the assassinations of Shukr and Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran last week.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his Islamic Revolutionary Guard promised Israel a “painful” response for the killing of Haniyeh in Tehran.

On Monday, rockets fired towards Al-Asad Airbase in Iraq injured several US personnel in what Pentagon said was an attack by Iran-backed groups.

“We might all respond at the same time, or maybe it’s better in the [resistance] axis for each [group] to respond in the way that suits them and with the targets they choose,” Nasrallah said.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered additional military assets to the region, sending a carrier strike group, a fighter squadron and additional warships to the Middle East.

Officials across the world have been conducting intensified shuttle diplomacy in an attempt to contain Iran’s response. The Jordanian foreign minister travelled to Iran this week in a rare visit aimed at deescalating the tensions and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held calls with G7 foreign ministers to discuss an urgent need for de-escalation.

On Wednesday, foreign ministers representing Islamic countries, including Iran, will travel to Jeddah for an extraordinary meeting at the Organization of Islamic Cooperation to discuss the assassination of Haniyeh.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

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A Nobel laureate known as the “banker to the poor” will aim to bring stability to Bangladesh after he answered a call by student protesters for him to temporarily lead the restive country following weeks of deadly anti-government demonstrations.

Muhammad Yunus, 84, will head an interim government following the toppling of the South Asian country’s prime minister and dissolution of parliament, according to the Bangladesh president’s press secretary.

Yunus is a social entrepreneur and banker who won the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize for his pioneering microfinance work that helped alleviate poverty in Bangladesh and was widely adopted around the world.

He is also a longtime critic of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina, who resigned earlier this week and fled the country following years of increasingly authoritarian rule.

Her departure brought jubilation to the student movement that forced her out – but also some trepidation over whether the military would step in to fill the leadership vacuum.

Who is Muhammad Yunus?

Yunus was born in 1940 in Chittagong, a port city in southeastern Bangladesh, according to his profile on the Nobel Prize website.

He studied at Dhaka University, before receiving the prestigious Fulbright scholarship to attend Vanderbilt University in the United States, where he received a Ph.D. in economics.

In 1972, a year after Bangladesh won independence from Pakistan, he returned to teach at Chittagong University.

But disaster soon struck. A severe famine swept the country in 1974, wiping out an estimated 1.5 million people.

“I found it difficult to teach elegant theories of economics in the university classroom, in the backdrop of a terrible famine in Bangladesh. Suddenly, I felt the emptiness of those theories in the face of crushing hunger and poverty,” Yunus said in his 2006 Nobel lecture after receiving the award.

“I wanted to do something immediate to help people around me, even if it was just one human being, to get through another day with a little more ease,” he said.

He began providing small loans out of pocket to the poorest residents in his community – eventually founding the Grameen Bank in 1983, which would become a world leader in alleviating poverty through microlending.

The bank quickly grew, with different branches and similar models now operating worldwide.

Yunus and the Grameen Bank were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006, after lending a total of about $6 billion in housing, student and micro-enterprise loans, and specifically in support of Bangladeshi women.

He is also the founder of the Yunus Centre, a Dhaka-based think tank that helps develop new social businesses.

Some critics have cast a skeptical eye on Yunus and the Grameen Bank, arguing that some microlenders’ high interest rates had impoverished borrowers as the lenders made big profits from small loans.

Frictions with Hasina’s government

Over the years, Yunus has repeatedly gone head-to-head with former prime minister Hasina – who has accused him of “sucking blood from the poor,” according to Reuters.

Yunus briefly proposed forming a new political party in 2007 ahead of parliamentary elections – which Hasina decried at the time, saying political newcomers were “dangerous elements … to be viewed with suspicion,” Reuters reported.

Yunus ultimately did not move forward with forming the party.

In 2011, Bangladesh’s government-controlled central bank removed Yunus as managing director of Grameen Bank, saying he had exceeded the mandatory retirement age.

In the following years, Yunus was embroiled in multiple legal cases that his supporters said were the result of him being unfairly targeted by the authorities.

They include a defamation suit, a food safety case, and allegations of tax irregularities, which he denied.

In January, a court in Bangladesh sentenced Yunus to six months in prison for labor law violations – with the banker again denying any wrongdoing.

In a separate case, he was indicted in June on embezzlement charges.

Hasina’s government had insisted its actions against Yunus were not politically motivated, but the banker disagreed. It is not currently clear what will happen to those prosecutions now Hasina is out of power.

“I am not in the political field, there is no evidence that I am involved in politics,” Yunus said at the time, warning that Bangladesh was becoming a “self-destructing civilization.”

In a separate interview with Reuters in June, he said Bangladesh had turned into a “one-party” state, with the ruling party stamping out all political competition.

What comes next?

“People are celebrating on the street and millions and millions of people all over Bangladesh [are] celebrating as if this is our liberation day,” he said.

Addressing his message to the protest movement in Bangladesh, he added: “You have done a great job.”

But, experts say, Yunus faces a long and complicated road ahead as the government reforms itself.

His first challenge will be to re-establish law and order after the deadly protests of the past weeks, and to “address the trust deficit that exists in society” between the people and the state, said Mubashar Hasan, who studies Asian authoritarianism at the University of Oslo.

That includes deep public mistrust toward Bangladesh’s police, judiciary, and other state-run institutes, he said.

Another pressing task will be to declare free and fair elections – the lack of which is one reason Bangladesh was plunged into protests in the first place.

Yunus will also have to address the fallout from the past month, with Hasina’s government having cracked down with deadly force on the protesters with around 300 killed according to local media and agencies. Critics and human rights groups have accused authorities of using excessive violence, a charge the government denied at the time.

Now, the interim leader will likely face pressure to “start setting up some sort of judicial procedures that will address the gross human rights violation in the past few weeks and in the past decade,” Hasan said.

Niloy Biswas, a professor of international relations at the University of Dhaka, echoed this point – saying the government’s new leaders must “initiate investigations to ensure justice for hundreds of innocent people who have lost their lives.”

As the interim government moves forward, reforming Bangladesh’s economy will be a key task – where Yunus’ economic background could play a role. These reforms will be “vital” in combating corruption and helping the nation grow, Biswas said.

But he may face opposition in government, too – including from those who had supported Hasina, potentially including figures in the judiciary and law enforcement, Hasan said.

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