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For over a week, Venezuela has been in suspense after a hotly contested presidential election left both the opposition and incumbent President Nicolas Maduro claiming victory.

How verifiable is the data presented by each of the parties? Although Venezuela’s electoral and judicial authorities announced the victory of Nicolás Maduro, they have not shown detailed results and electoral records to support it.

In contrast, the opposition published on a website the count of 83.50% of the voting records, a result that has also been verified by civil organizations and independent media outlets.

Here is the breakdown:

What the CNE says

Early in the morning of Monday, July 29, the president of the CNE, Elvis Amoroso, proclaimed Nicolás Maduro the winner of the race. According to the data of that organization, with 80% of the records counted, the president had obtained 51.20%, that is, exactly 5,150,092 votes. In that same first bulletin, the CNE gave second place to Edmundo González with 44.2%, exactly 4,445,978 votes.

According to CNE, the sum of the votes of all the other presidential candidates represented “462,704 of the votes, equivalent to 4.06%.”

But that is a highly unlikely breakdown, experts say. “There is about a 1 in 100 million chance that this particular pattern will occur by chance,” said Andrew Gelman, a professor of Statistics and Political Science at Columbia University, in a post analyzing the numbers collected from the CNE’s first report.

Gelman ran a mathematical simulation with a probability model and concluded: “A million simulations and not once does this rounding work.”

For John Magdaleno, political scientist and director of the public affairs consultancy Polity, the inconsistencies appear in what the CNE has presented — it has not yet published the electoral results of every polling station, as mandated by Venezuelan law — as well as in the figures.

Magdaleno highlighted four technical issues in the first CNE bulletin: First, the absolute and relative number of null votes was not announced; second, the votes of all presidential candidates other than González Urrutia and Maduro were totaled “instead of presenting them separately, as is usual”; and third, the frequencies were presented with a single decimal, “which is not common.” Fourth, with 80% of the votes counted, the agency declared an irreversible trend favor of Maduro, although the reported difference was just over 704,000 votes and at least 2,300,000 votes remained to be counted.

On Friday, August 2, the CNE published a second bulletin that stated that, after processing 96.87% of the votes, Maduro had obtained 51.95% of the votes while González Urrutia reached 43.18%. They also did not make public the data that supports this bulletin.

John Magdaleno pointed out that since the second bulletin announced a total of 12,335,884 valid votes, “it follows that in the first bulletin there were more than 2,300,000 votes left to be counted.” This, according to Magdaleno, confirms “the central inconsistency of the first bulletin”: there was not an irreversible trend.

The opposition numbers

On Friday, August 2, the opposition released a database that it has been updating.

As of Wednesday, August 7, when this article was written, the database contained 83.50% of the tally sheets (25,073) from a total of 30,026 polling stations. According to this data, Edmundo González would have won the election with 7,303,480 votes (67%), while Maduro would have come in second with 3,316,142 votes (30%) and the other candidates only obtained 267,640 votes (2%).

“If the database is downloaded, an analysis can be made of how they arrive at the global voting announcement that they make and that is why the opposition’s data is verifiable and that of the CNE is not,” said Martínez.

In effect, the data from the opposition website can be downloaded, and it contains the disaggregated voting data with links that direct to images of the scanned minutes.

To verify that an electoral record is valid, it must have a QR code, the votes broken down by candidate and the signatures of the representatives of the parties, a representative of the electoral body and another of the electoral witnesses who participated by lottery.

Professor David Arroyo Fernández, from the College of Economists of Madrid, made a statistical study of the data published by the opposition and concludes that “it is very unlikely” that they would have had enough time “to have created a distribution of votes with these characteristics in just a few days” if they were not the real data, so “mathematically and statistically the data [of the opposition] fit in terms of numbers and the accuracy shown.”

Analyst John Madgaleno points out that “the opposition has presented more detailed and verifiable information on the result of the presidential election than the body in charge of the administration of the electoral event.”

On Monday, August 5, the Public Ministry of Venezuela opened a criminal investigation against the candidate González Urrutia and opposition leader María Corina Machado for “the alleged commission of the crimes of usurpation of functions, dissemination of false information to cause anxiety, instigation to disobedience of the laws, instigation to insurrection, criminal association and conspiracy.”

The agency claimed that the accusation is linked to the call that opposition leaders made in a statement to the military and police to stand “on the side of the people.” But it also accuses them of “falsely announcing a winner of the presidential elections other than the one proclaimed by the National Electoral Council.”

Several media and international organizations analyzed the database offered by the Venezuelan opposition. One of them was the Colombian Electoral Observation Mission (MOE).

According to this organization, “the calculation of the electoral participation that is in the database is consistent with the data presented by the Venezuelan CNE.” After analyzing the information contained in the database, the MOE validates the results that give González Urrutia as the winner.

The Associated Press (AP) processed nearly 24,000 images of ballot papers released by the opposition, representing the results from 79% of the voting machines. Each coded sheet of votes counts in QR codes, which AP decoded and analyzed programmatically, resulting in tabulations of 10.26 million votes.

According to those calculations, opposition candidate Edmundo González received 6.89 million votes and Maduro obtained 3.13 million.

The same conclusion was reached by media outlets such as The Washington Post, The New York Times and El País, which made their own analyses of the data released by Venezuela’s majority opposition and concluded that the information supports González Urrutia’s victory over Maduro.

How did the opposition obtain these records?

Thousands of volunteers participated in the electoral process on July 28. The instruction, which Maria Corina Machado herself reiterated that Sunday after the polls closed, was to stay at the voting centers until they obtained a copy of the printed records. These were then transferred to a safe place, accompanied by members of the opposition party who sought to guarantee the safety of the witnesses.

What about the percentage of the records that the opposition could not access? Could they change the result? Even if 100% of the votes contained in the missing records were favorable to Maduro, the count, according to the data published by the opposition, would likely still give González Urrutia the victory.

“On the other hand, it would be necessary to see from which geographic areas (and with what sociodemographic characteristics) the missing votes are visible and counted. As can be seen from the data provided by the published votes, Maduro would have obtained more votes in those sectors that are more vulnerable in socioeconomic terms, as has been the case in past elections,” added Lacalle.

What will happen now?

The Supreme Court of Justice, the body that answers the ruling party, had given the CNE three days to present the votes. The deadline was met on Monday and according to the judicial body, the CNE delivered what was requested and began an expert process that includes summons for the 10 presidential candidates, including Maduro and González Urrutia. On Wednesday, González Urrutia announced on his social networks that he would not attend because he would be “in a situation of absolute defenselessness.”

Read the original story in Spanish here.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

China has taken a major step forward in its bid to create a rival to SpaceX’s Starlink this week by launching the first of what it hopes will be a constellation of 14,000 satellites beaming broadband internet coverage from space.

Eighteen satellites were blasted into low Earth orbit (LEO) on Tuesday in the inaugural launch for the government-backed Qianfan, or Spacesail, constellation, state media reported.

The constellation – hailed in domestic media as China’s answer to US-based SpaceX’s Starlink – aims to join a handful of planned or operational large-scale space projects from providers in various countries offering broadband satellite internet services.

Leading that pack is Starlink, which has more than 6,000 satellites in orbit and ambitions to expand to as many as 42,000. It is widely expected to remain the dominant player in years to come, given its head start and advanced launch capabilities.

While most people accessing the internet do so through cables and other ground-based infrastructure, satellite internet connection has emerged as an important service for rural, under-resourced and disaster-hit areas. It’s also seen as key for expanding technologies like autonomous cars and other internet-enabled devices – industries that China wants to lead.

Qianfan, also known as G60 Starlink, is among three planned Chinese mega constellations that could see the country’s firms launching nearly 40,000 satellites into low Earth orbit (defined as no more than 1,200 miles above the planet) in the coming years. So-called mega constellations refer to networks of hundreds or thousands of orbiting satellites.

The launch comes as China ramps up its commercial space sector as part of Beijing’s broader bid to cement its place as a dominant power in outer space. The country has already made tremendous strides in its ambitious national space program, which aims to put astronauts on the moon by 2030, while also launching military-linked satellites for navigation, communication and surveillance.

Controlling LEO broadband satellite constellations could be a boon for China, experts say, enabling its firms to offer services domestically and around the world – while bolstering Beijing’s diplomatic sway, control over data flow and national security.

The rollout of Qianfan, which is run by Shanghai government-backed Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (SSST), will also be a test of China’s ability to produce and launch satellites at scale and on a tight timeline.

The constellation is slated to grow to more than 600 satellites by the end of 2025 with plans to reach more than 14,000 satellites providing broadband internet globally by 2030, according to state broadcaster CCTV.

That number would be “sufficient to provide coverage for most human population centers,” Zhu Xiaochen, deputy director of the project, told CCTV.

‘Informational superiority’

China’s foray into broadband mega-constellations comes as governments and companies across the world are increasingly eyeing satellites for everything from communications to military operations.

The war in Ukraine, where access to Starlink has been a key asset for the Ukrainian military, has also moved LEO broadband satellites into the spotlight for its security implications.

Chinese researchers have on several occasions raised national security concerns about the SpaceX-run constellation – including one military scholar who said in January that it had the potential to support US “ground forces” and strike capability in “regional conflicts.”

While the launch of Qianfan is part of Beijing’s broader push to boost space capabilities and commercial applications, its launch also shows China is “recognizing the dual use … potential of these capabilities from the standpoint of informational superiority or data flow control,” said Tomas Hrozensky, a senior researcher at the nonprofit think tank European Space Policy Institute in Vienna.

Constellations like Qianfan, once operational, could also yield diplomatic benefits for Beijing, experts say. For example, China could offer access to its internet and communications services as part of deals with governments within its Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure scheme widely seen as a vehicle for China to build its overseas influence.

Chinese companies’ role in global telecommunications has been a fractious subject in recent years, with the US government raising alarms about alleged security risks for countries using ground-based Chinese infrastructure and equipment.

Some experts warn of related concerns if countries start getting online via Chinese satellites.

“As China begins deploying G60 and other planned LEO broadband constellations, we’ll see them extend their telecommunications model to space – a model based on surveilling and censoring the flow of information,” said Kari Bingen, director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington.

‘A national priority’

The Qianfan constellation’s launch comes as China’s top leaders have signaled that developing the commercial space sector – including satellites, launch capabilities and tech production – is an economic priority.

The 18 satellites sent into orbit this week appears to put Qianfan ahead of two other planned Chinese communications constellations in LEO. State-owned China Satellite Network Group’s Guowang constellation project aims for nearly 13,000 satellites, and leading private space firm Landspace’s Honghu-3 has plans for 10,000, according to information released in state-linked media.

Plans for the Qianfan project were announced in 2021 as part of a state-backed technology innovation scheme across China’s prosperous Yangtze River delta. Its operating company, the Shanghai-government backed SSST, raised $933 million earlier this year, Reuters reported in February, citing an investor.

Preparing for the launch has included efforts to streamline satellite production, using what Qianfan’s chief designer Cao Caixia recently described to state broadcaster CCTV as “an intelligent satellite manufacturing platform” to speed up production times.

There are likely to be hurdles as SSST and other Chinese firms seek to rapidly scale-up their constellations. China is opening its first commercial launch pad this year, even as state media says roughly half of the satellites launched last year were commercial ones.

A number of Chinese companies are working to enhance launch capabilities, but those are still significantly behind the kind of technology powering SpaceX’s Starlink, which is expected to further expand its launch capacity once its Starship vehicle comes online.

“Like any spacefaring nation, China will undoubtedly encounter technical and operational challenges,” said CSIS’s Bingen, pointing to the need to establish and scale satellite production lines and launch rockets at a frequent cadence.

“But space is a national priority for Beijing, with these commercial entities receiving top-down support from the (Chinese Communist Party), large tracts of funding, municipal government support, and regulatory leeway, so I would expect China to continue its rapid progress in space.”

This post appeared first on cnn.com

An 18-year-old Iraqi national was detained in Vienna in connection with investigations into an alleged plot to strike a Taylor Swift concert in the Austrian capital, the interior ministry said on Friday.

The Iraqi national is said to have come from the same circle as the main suspect, a 19-year-old Austrian with North Macedonian roots, according to the ministry.

The main suspect, who had vowed loyalty to Islamic State (IS), was planning a lethal assault among the estimated 20,000 “Swiftie” fans set to gather outside Vienna’s Ernst Happel Stadium.

The US popstar had planned concerts in Vienna on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. All three were canceled late Wednesday over security concerns.

Two other Austrian youths aged 17 and 15 were detained on Wednesday over the reported plot.

The 15-year-old has meanwhile been released and is being treated as a witness, the Kurier newspaper reported on Friday.

The Iraqi suspect is reported to have sworn allegiance to IS on Aug. 6, but it remains unclear whether he had anything to do with the planned attack, the newspaper reported.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

This post appeared first on cnn.com

In ruling Monday that Google has held a monopoly in internet search, U.S. judge Amit Mehta invoked the company at the center of the most famous tech antitrust case in U.S. history: Microsoft.

A federal judge determined in 1999 that Microsoft had illegally used the market power of its Windows operating system to box out rival browsers, namely Netscape Navigator. A settlement in 2001 forced the software giant to stop disadvantaging competitors in its PC deals.

Google’s landmark case, filed by the government in 2020, alleged that the company has kept its share of the search market by creating strong barriers to entry and a feedback loop that sustained its dominance. The court found that Google violated Section 2 of the Sherman Act, which outlaws monopolies.

“The end result here is not dissimilar from the Microsoft court’s conclusion as to the browser market,” Mehta wrote in his 300-page ruling. “Just as the agreements in that case help[ed] keep usage of Navigator below the critical level necessary for Navigator or any other rival to pose a real threat to Microsoft’s monopoly, Google’s distribution agreements have constrained the query volumes of its rivals, thereby inoculating Google against any genuine competitive threat.”

Mehta said one key similarity is the “power of the default.” For Google, that refers to its search position on Apple’s iPhone and Samsung devices — deals that cost the company billions of dollars a year in payouts.

“Users are free to navigate to Google’s rivals through non-default search access points, but they rarely do,” Mehta wrote.

Mehta said a separate trial will take place on Sept. 4, to determine the remedies, or penalties against Google. At that point, Google can appeal, a process that experts said could take around two years. Microsoft appealed its initial ruling before ultimately settling with the Department of Justice.

“All along, the government has implicitly and explicitly said they’re basing this case on the Microsoft case,” said Sam Weinstein, law professor at Cardozo Law School and a former DOJ antitrust lawyer.

In the case of Microsoft, Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson found that the company forced PC makers to include its Internet Explorer browser in Windows, and threatened to punish them for installing or promoting Navigator. The judge proposed that Microsoft divest either its operating system business or its applications business, which both enjoyed market leadership. 

After Microsoft’s successful appeal, a U.S. District Court banned the software company from retaliating against device makers for shipping PCs that include multiple operating systems. Microsoft was required to give software and hardware companies the same programming interfaces that Microsoft middleware employs to work with Windows.

Nicholas Economides, an economics professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, said the similarities in the Google case are clear.

“My first reaction on this is that Google appears to lose across the board,” Economides said. “This big blow reminded me of the Justice Department’s win against Microsoft.”

The most likely outcome, according to some legal experts, is that the court will ask Google to do away with certain exclusive agreements. The court could suggest that Google make it easier for users to try other search engines. 

While a monetary penalty is also on the table, the bigger risk is that Google will have to alter its business practices in a way that undermines profitability. For example, if Google can no longer be considered a default search engine on smartphones, it could lose a significant chunk of business in its core market.

In the second quarter, “Google Search & Other” accounted for $48.5 billion in revenue, or 57% of Alphabet’s total revenue.

In its appeal, Google will likely introduce fresh evidence that artificial intelligence has played more of a role in competition, a dynamic that didn’t exist when the DOJ filed its initial lawsuit. However, it’s a perception Google has tried to downplay since being upstaged by OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

Neil Chilson, former chief technologist for the Federal Trade Commission and currently head of AI policy at the Abundance Institute, sees increased competition for Google due in part to AI, which could help the company’s case.

“The rigid market definitions means the court finds that Google has illegally maintained a monopoly in general search,” Chilson said. But “search vertical providers” like Amazon and AI services like ChatGPT “threaten to upend Google’s entire general search advertising business model,” Chilson said.

Google shares didn’t move much after Monday’s ruling, as the stock was already trading lower due to the broad market sell-off. The stock slipped another 0.6% on Tuesday to close at $158.29. Google didn’t provide a comment for this story.

Since Mehta didn’t discuss potential remedies in the ruling, investors and analysts are forced to wait. Experts say it’s unlikely that Google will be forced to break itself up.

“I think there were obvious business lines you could spin off in the Microsoft case but it’s not as obvious here,” Weinstein said, adding that divestiture is rarely ordered for a Section 2 case.

The trial beginning Sept. 4 will produce some important answers. Bill Baer, who formerly ran antitrust divisions at both the FTC and DOJ, said the Microsoft precedent makes the case against Google a strong one.

“It’s hard to say at this point what the DOJ is going to seek and what the judge is going to accept,” Baer said.

— CNBC’s Jordan Novet contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Here’s a surprise: Disney’s media business isn’t weighing down the company anymore.

The primary Disney investor narrative since 2022 has been how streaming losses, combined with a declining traditional pay TV business and a string of box office failures, have been anchoring surging sales and profits at the company’s theme parks and resorts. The result has been a company whose shares have fallen about 24% in the past two years, while the S&P 500 has gained 28% in the same period.

The company’s second-quarter results suggest a shift is happening. Disney’s combined streaming businesses — Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ — turned a quarterly profit for the first time ever, making $47 million. That’s a significant improvement from losing $512 million in the same quarter a year ago.

Disney’s theatrical unit is also on a hot streak. “Inside Out 2” became the highest-grossing animated film of all time in recent weeks. “Deadpool & Wolverine” has taken in $824 million after two weeks of global release. Disney has become the first studio in 2024 to top $3 billion in worldwide ticket sales.

Meanwhile, Disney saw a “moderation of consumer demand towards the end of [fiscal] Q3 that exceeded our previous expectations” for its theme parks division. That caused shares to slump about 3% in early trading.

Disney Chief Executive Officer Bob Iger said during his company’s earnings conference call that he expects the momentum for the media business will only gain steam. That’s music to the ears of Wall Street, which wants both growth and profitability.

“We feel very bullish about the future of this business,” Iger said in reference to streaming. “You can expect that it’s going to grow nicely in fiscal 2025.”

Iger referenced a planned crackdown on password sharing, which will begin “in earnest” in September, as a tool that will help generate new subscribers and added revenue for the company. A similar effort from Netflix has helped the world’s largest streamer add new customers during the past year.

Disney is also raising prices for its streaming services in mid-October. Most plans for Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ will cost $1 to $2 more per month.

Iger rattled off a list of movie titles that Disney hasn’t yet released to emphasize the studio’s solid positioning for the rest of 2024 and beyond.

“Let me just read to you the movies that we’ll be making and releasing in the next almost two years,” Iger said. “We have ‘Moana,’ ‘Mufasa,’ ‘Captain America,’ ‘Snow White,’ ‘Thunderbolts,’ ‘Fantastic Four,’ ‘Zootopia,’ ‘Avatar,’ ‘Avengers,’ ‘Mandalorian’ and ‘Toy Story,’ just to name a few. When you think about not only the potential of those in box office but the potential of those to drive global streaming value, I think there’s a reason to be bullish about where we’re headed.”

Disney isn’t de-emphasizing the parks. The company said last year it plans to invest $60 billion in its theme parks and cruise lines in the next decade. But it’s undoubtedly healthier for the company to persuade investors that the media units aren’t weighing down the share price.

Disney shares dropped Wednesday, likely because investors were focused on the parks. The next step is for shares to rise during a quarterly earnings report because investors are excited about the media units.

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Members of the main U.S. transportation regulator grilled Boeing executives Wednesday over the company’s workplace safety culture and allegations of retaliation linked to two employees who were sidelined over a January mishap involving a Boeing 737 Max 9 in which a door plug detached mid-flight.

Jennifer Homendy, chair of the National Transportation Safety Board, or NTSB, directed a series of questions to Boeing’s director of quality, Hector Silva, about employee-manager relationships after Boeing stated that “everybody in the organization” is responsible for safety and that employees are not punished for good faith mistakes. 

“I understand you have an anti-retaliation policy. I also understand that you have a policy for lateral moves.” Homendy said. “So given that it is not intentional — and we just talked about how, when there are safety issues and human error, that you should be welcoming people to speak up — what sort of impression is that giving your employees if you sidelined them and put them in, and I am quoting, ‘Boeing prison, the cage?’ I’m wondering what message that sends?”

Silva responded, “I am not directly involved with those employees,” adding, “I do know that in just culture, you need to address good faith mistakes with nonpunitive solutions. I know we always take action to ensure that product safety is protected.” 

Moments after takeoff on Jan. 5, Alaska Airlines Flight 1282 from Portland, Oregon, to Ontario, California, experienced a rapid decompression when a mid-exit door plug blew off, leaving a gaping hole as passengers clung to their seats and donned oxygen masks while the aircraft made an emergency landing.

A preliminary report found that four bolts intended to secure the door plug had been missing when the accident occurred. 

Boeing has not publicly identified the two door crew members who may be responsible for having forgotten to reinstall the bolts in September before the plane completed manufacturing at Boeing’s Renton, Washington, plant. 

Silva acknowledged that the error should have been caught, at the latest, “prior to the rollout of the airplane.”

Sabrina Woods, an NTSB human performance aviation accident investigator, pressed for answers about how the mistake was not caught.

“Bolts were not reinstalled, but one error in a robust system should not be able to progress all the way over to an accident,” Woods said. “It is in your system. Where should the error have been stopped in its tracks?”

Boeing execs did not respond.

Homendy read additional NTSB interview transcripts that noted a Boeing employee told NTSB investigators, “We got a lot of people that will not, that are not going to speak up because they do, they have been burned by a manager, they have been moved, relocated, pushed out.”

“You mess up, you get moved,” the worker said in the report. “Three minutes late and then you’re moved.” 

Elizabeth Lund, Boeing’s senior vice president of quality, said during Tuesday’s part of the hearing that there are most likely two workers who made the decision to open the door plug and that, as standard practice in an investigation, the workers were initially removed from airplane production and reassigned to a lateral position in pay, benefits and shifts. They are on administrative leave at their own request, Lund said.

The workers were placed in a different building where Boeing builds wings, which the NTSB said in a report workers refer to as “Boeing prison,” Homendy said at Tuesday’s hearing.

Lund said she did not know it was called that. 

Security video of the plane from the plane as it was being manufactured has been rewritten. Boeing officials said the system rewrites video after 30 days.

Lund also detailed steps Boeing has taken to address safety quality issues. Boeing is working on plug sensor changes that will not allow the door plug to fully close if there are any issues until it is firmly secured. Approved design changes are expected to begin within the year, and Boeing will retrofit the fleet once a design is completed.

Boeing committed under oath to work with the NTSB without interference on a safety culture survey of Boeing employees.

Boeing’s new CEO, Kelly Ortberg, assumes his new post Thursday.

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Stocks slipped into the red as markets closed Wednesday, losing gains from earlier in the day as Wall Street failed to recoup losses from Monday’s massive sell-off.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 163 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 declined 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.7%.

Earlier in Wednesday’s trading session, the Dow rallied more than 300 points. The broad S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq were also higher on the day before turning negative.

A rollover in Nvidia and other big technology stocks following an early jump led to the major averages rolling over in the afternoon. Nvidia pulled back 3.5%, while shares of Super Micro Computer tumbled more than 20% after the server company’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings missed analyst estimates. Tesla also lost 3.4% and Meta Platforms shed 0.2%.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield continued its climb and rose 5 basis points to 3.94%. This marked a return to its level prior to the weak jobs numbers on Friday that raised concerns of an economic downturn.

The Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” was last trading at 28.3 after falling to as low as 22 earlier on Wednesday. The sharp decline from near 65 on Monday indicates investors’ fears are abating, but still remain elevated from their initial levels at the start of the month.

“There’s been some reassurance over the last couple days that things have calmed down a bit. But there are still quite a few unknowns on the horizon, such as how much more unwind there is on the yen carry trade, as well as geopolitical headwinds,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management.

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq each advanced 1%, while the 30-stock Dow added nearly 300 points on Tuesday. On Monday, the Dow and the broad-market S&P 500 posted their worst session since 2022, fueled by recession worries and the unwinding of the yen carry trade.

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A particular type of retail fraud soars during the summer season.

“Wardrobing,” in which a shopper buys an expensive item, wears it with the tags on, and then returns the product for a refund, picks up as shoppers bolster their closets for summer vacations, according to returns management software company Optoro.

“During the summer and cruise season, from July to September, we see wardrobing and overall return rates spike by two-to-three times, with swimwear alone making up between 5% and 15% of returns,” said Amena Ali, CEO of Optoro. “This highlights the fine line between habitual returners and fraudsters.”

Forty percent of 18-to-29-year-olds wardrobe, according to Optoro data.

In a November 2023 Optoro returns survey, 30% of shoppers admitted to buying an item for a specific event, only to return it after the occasion ended.

The challenge for retailers is handling the items when they get them back.

“For seasonal items like cruisewear and swimwear, quick, yet thorough, inspection and restocking are imperative to retain as much value as possible before the season ends,” Ali said. “Time sensitivity is crucial in this fight — ideally, you catch fraud in the moment, or better yet, before it happens.”

Ali warned if products linger in the return process, the delay can lead to significant markdowns or the need to send items to secondary retail channels such as stores like TJ Maxx, discounters, or liquidators.

Ali told CNBC that when a wardrobed item returns to a store or warehouse, the best course of action depends on its value and condition.

“A $10 swim coverup returned in poor condition might not be worth the cost to clean or repair, and would likely instead be routed through recommerce, donations or recycling channels,” said Ali. “It’s imperative that items clearly worn for a summer vacation and returned don’t slip through the cracks to the next customer — protecting brand perception and customer loyalty is paramount.”

Scot Case, executive director of the Center for Retail Sustainability at the National Retail Federation, said wardrobing can drive up costs and waste for retailers if the product can no longer be resold. So retailers are taking action.

“Some retailers are addressing the issue by reducing the amount of time consumers have to return items, by eliminating free returns or by requiring consumers to return items in-store where an employee can examine the item before a consumer receives a refund,” said Case.

Companies like Best Buy, Gap and American Eagle Outfitters use Optoro’s reverse logistics artificial intelligence software to swiftly manage their returns, identify fraud and quickly restock products on store shelves to avoid discounting.

“Time is literally money,” Ali said. “The more quickly you can turn the product, the less likely you will need to discount it. Having a smart disposition system can recover costs and maximize profitability.

Steven Lamar, CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association told CNBC that returns, whether due to wardrobing or other reasons, have become a key focus for retailers and brands, especially in the era of e-commerce.

“Supply chain technology, powered by AI, is increasingly being deployed so that consumers can find and enjoy the fashion they want at the right price, the right quality, and the right time,” Lamar said. “As companies build and integrate take back programs to repair and resell used items, returns take on a new role, fueling a new circular market.”

According to Optoro, 30% of the cost associated with a return is transportation. Strategies such as third-party drop-off locations and box-less, label-less returns are being used to cut down these costs.

“AI and software can reduce the number of touches on a returned product by 50%,” Ali said.

Ali said using AI in an end-to-end digitized return system can also help a retailer identify a trusted shopper and get the like-new goods identified and restocked at full price.

Optoro data shows approximately 95% of the goods that cannot return to resale go to a secondary channel. Five percent of products head to a landfill or for donation.

“We see a wide range of numbers in terms of recovery, between improvement of 5% to 45% in certain categories, depending on the brand, but this is significant money when talking to enterprise retailers,” said Ali. “A global shoe manufacturer that was sending a large portion of returned inventory to destroy/recycle, was able to increase their re-commerce to the secondary channels with an improved overall recovery for that segment by 45%.” 

Optoro customers’ top three categories returned were kitchen and dining, men’s shoes and women’s clothing.

Return rates vary both in category and by brand or retailer. Some clients see as high as 40% return rates. Clothing leads the return category at a 25% rate, followed by bags, accessories and shoes at 18%, miscellaneous accessories at 13% and consumer electronics at 12%, according to Statista.

The average value of a returned item for Optoro’s customers is $85. The highest item value reported as returned in the survey was $200.

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The days of sneaking into Costco with someone else’s card are coming to an end. The retailer is cracking down on membership card sharing with a new policy where all cards will be scanned at store entrances. 

Costco said in a recent statement on its website: “Over the coming months, membership scanning devices will be used at the entrance door of your local warehouse.”

Under the new process, all members must scan their physical or digital cards by “placing the barcode or QR Code against the scanner.” Previously, shoppers typically only had to present their membership cards at the cash register during check out. 

Guests without cards must be accompanied by a member to enter, making it harder to slip in on a borrowed card.

For members with cards without a photo, they’ll be asked to show a valid photo ID, and are encouraged to have their photo taken to add to their cards at the membership counter.

The statement said that an attendant would be stationed at store entrances to assist shoppers.

For members whose cards are inactive, expired or those who would like to sign up for a new membership, the attendant will ask them to stop at the membership counter prior to entering the warehouse to shop. 

NBC News has reached out to Costco for comment.

Costco relies on membership fees to drive most of its revenue and help keep merchandise prices low.

The new card-checking policy is the latest effort to put a stop to non-members taking advantage of the benefits.

Last year, Costco stepped up enforcement by adding an extra check for memberships in self-checkout aisles in an effort to stop shoppers from using other members’ cards. 

The store also announced last month it would increase its membership rate for the first time since 2017. The fee would rise by $5 in the U.S. as of Sept. 1, changing the annual membership fee from $60 5o $65. Its higher-tier plan, called “Executive Membership,” will increase to $130 a year from $120.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The days of sneaking into Costco with someone else’s card are coming to an end. The retailer is cracking down on sharing membership cards with a new policy in which all cards will be scanned at store entrances. 

Costco said in a recent statement on its website: “Over the coming months, membership scanning devices will be used at the entrance door of your local warehouse.”

Under the new process, all members must scan their physical or digital cards by “placing the barcode or QR Code against the scanner.” Previously, shoppers typically only had to present their membership cards at the cash register during checkout. 

Guests without cards must be accompanied by a member to enter, making it harder to slip in on borrowed cards.

Members with cards without photos will be asked to show valid photo ID, and they are encouraged to have their photos taken to add to their cards at the membership counter.

The statement said an attendant would be at store entrances to assist shoppers.

Attendants will ask members whose cards are inactive or expired or those who would like to sign up for new memberships to stop at a membership counter before they enter the warehouse to shop. 

Costco did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Costco relies on membership fees to drive most of its revenue and help keep merchandise prices low.

The new card-checking policy is the latest effort to put a stop to non-members’ taking advantage of the benefits.

Last year, Costco stepped up enforcement by adding an extra check for memberships in self-checkout aisles to stop shoppers from using other members’ cards. 

The chain also announced last month it would increase its membership rate for the first time since 2017. The fee will rise by $5 in the U.S. as of Sept. 1, from $60 to $65. Its higher-tier plan, called “Executive Membership,” will increase to $130 a year from $120.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS