The key resistance level I’ve been watching on the S&P 500 hasn’t wavered. It’s 5782. The bulls had a real chance this past week to clear this important hurdle and they failed. Badly. If this was a heavyweight fight, the ref would have called it after the first round. It simply wasn’t close. Resistance failed, rotation turned bearish, volatility again expanded, and the bears are celebrating another short-term victory.
Check out this S&P 500 chart:
I’ve written about this to EarningsBeats.com members. I posted this exact chart in my StockCharts.com article a few days ago. I’ve discussed it on my YouTube shows. 5782 is THE key short-term price resistance and you can see above that the S&P 500 literally did an “about face” as soon as it touched this resistance. Sellers were lined up. Now that we’ve failed at 5782, it only makes this resistance level that much more important on any future rallies.
The serious technical damage occurred over the past 3 days as consumer discretionary stocks have been absolutely TROUNCED, while consumer staples hangs near its recent highs. If you recall, it was this HUGE disparity in consumer stocks on February 21st that triggered the massive selling episode. Now here we are again with consumer staples stocks (XLP) outperforming discretionary (XLY) by a mile. Check out this chart:
Doesn’t the action in consumer stocks the past 3 days exactly mirror the action we saw in the 2nd half of February and into the first week of March? Folks, this isn’t good.
This is just the tip of the iceberg.
Bear Market Ahead?
The S&P 500, from its recent all-time high to its subsequent low, fell 10.4%, which marks correction territory. The rally we saw off the March 13th low was likely due to oversold conditions, along with March options expiration. On Tuesday, March 18th, we discussed with our EB.com members that odds favored a short-term rally, based on max pain and we laid out key resistance from 5670 to 5782, with the 20-day EMA falling in the middle of this price range. Once we failed at 5782, it was very important to gauge the nature of any new selloff. That’s what I’ve been evaluating this week and it’s not pretty. As you can see in the chart above, money has once again started rotating into the XLP and out of the XLY. This is one of the most important intermarket relationships and it’s screaming BEARISH ACTION AHEAD!
It’s only one signal, however. I announced a few days ago that we’d be hosting a FREE webinar on Saturday morning, March 29th, at 10:00am ET. I plan to discuss several signals that are pointing to exactly what we saw on Friday – more selling. To get a better handle on current market conditions and where we’re heading, I’d encourage you to join me Saturday morning by REGISTERING HERE. If you can’t make the live webinar, we’ll still send out the recorded video to all who register, so ACT NOW!
And here’s a little secret. Shhhhhhh! Market makers are playing some serious games manipulating some of the biggest stocks. I’ll talk a bit about how we can take advantage of that Saturday morning. Hope to see you there!
I’ve been writing at StockCharts.com for nearly 20 years now and many of you have supported my company, EarningsBeats.com, and I certainly want to show my appreciation for all of your loyalty. I believe we’re at a major crossroads in the stock market as the S&P 500 tests the recent price low from earlier in March. I called for a 2025 correction at our MarketVision 2025 event on January 4, 2025, to start the year and now it’s a reality. We decided at that time to add quarterly updates to our MarketVision series and our first update (Q1 update) is being held today at 5:30pm ET. I would like to invite everyone to join EarningsBeats.com and join me later today. We will record the event for those who cannot attend live.
Even if you decide not to join as an EB.com member, I do want to provide you my latest Weekly Market Report that we send out to our members at the start of every week, in addition to our Daily Market Report, which is published Tuesdays through Fridays.
I hope you enjoy!
MarketVision 2025 Q1 Update
Join us for our MarketVision 2025 Q1 update at 5:30pm ET today. This is an exclusive event for our annual members. If you’re already an annual member, room instructions will be sent to you in a separate email.
Not yet an annual member? Save $200 on membership TODAY ONLY. This offer will expire at the start of today’s event, so CLICK HERE for more information and details!
If you recall, on Saturday, January 4, 2025, I provided my annual forecast, which included my belief that we’d see a 10% on the S&P 500. That 10% correction is now in the rear view mirror, but what will happen from here? A lot has changed and we must remain objective as to where we might go. I’ll provide you my latest thoughts on this during today’s event.
I hope to see you at 5:30pm ET!
ChartLists Updated
The following ChartLists were updated over the weekend:
Strong Earnings (SECL)
Strong Future Earnings (SFECL)
Raised Guidance (RGCL)
These ChartLists are available to download into your StockCharts Extra or Pro account, if you have a StockCharts membership. Otherwise, we can send you an Excel file with the stocks included in these ChartLists in order to download them into other platforms. If you have any questions, please reach out to us at “support@earningsbeats.com”.
Weekly Market Recap
Major Indices
Sectors
Top 10 Industries Last Week
Bottom 10 Industries Last Week
Top 10 Stocks – S&P 500/NASDAQ 100
Bottom 10 Stocks – S&P 500/NASDAQ 100
Big Picture
The monthly PPO and monthly RSI are both moving lower now, but remember, we have not ever seen a secular bear market that did not coincide with a negative monthly PPO and a monthly RSI below 40. I believe we’ll see this market weakness end LONG BEFORE we see either of those technical developments on the above chart.
Sustainability Ratios
Here’s the latest look at our key intraday ratios as we follow where the money is traveling on an INTRADAY basis (ignoring gaps):
QQQ:SPY
Relative weakness in the QQQ:SPY, including and excluding gaps, has turned back down in a big way. That’s not what you want to see from a bullish perspective. We must remain on guard for potential short-term downside action, especially if key closing price support at 5521 fails on the S&P 500.
IWM:QQQ
Small caps (IWM) seem to be performing better than the aggressive, Mag 7 led NASDAQ 100, but that’s not saying a lot when you look at the IWM’s absolute performance in the bottom panel. Perhaps we’ll still get the small-cap run that we’ve been looking for over the past year, but it’ll likely need to be accompanied by a much more dovish Fed and with the short-term fed funds rate falling.
XLY:XLP
I mentioned last week that this chart was the biggest positive of the prior week. I suppose I now need to say it’s the biggest negative of last week because it did an abrupt about-face. It appears that the options expiration and oversold bounce we enjoyed for over a week have ended. We haven’t broken back to new relative lows, which would obviously be bearish, but we did back a lot of ground that we had previously made up. The XLY:XLP ratio is one of the most important in the stock market, as far as I’m concerned. Watching it turn back down is not a great feeling, and a new upcoming relative low would only make it worse.
Sentiment
5-day SMA ($CPCE)
Sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. When they show extreme bullishness, we need to be a bit cautious and when they show extreme pessimism, it could be time to become much more aggressive. Major market bottoms are carved out when pessimism is at its absolute highest level.
When an elevated Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) sends a signal that we could see pain ahead, which is exactly the message sent recently as the VIX approached 30, I usually turn my attention to a rising 5-day SMA of the equity-only put-call ratio ($CPCE) to help identify market bottoms. Once the stock market turns emotionally and begins to show fear and panic, key price support levels tend to fail, and a high reading in the VIX, combined with a huge reversal on the S&P 500 (think capitulation), usually are typical ingredients to establish a key bottom.
We’re finally starting to see some higher daily CPCE readings, which suggests that options traders are growing much more nervous, and that’s a good thing if we’re going to try to carve out a meaningful market bottom. The last four days have seen readings of 0.65, 0.71, 0.72, and 0.68. That’s not quite high enough to grow more convinced of an impending bottom in stocks, but it’s light years better than what we’ve seen during any other recent market selloffs.
253-day SMA ($CPCE)
We’re coming off an extended run higher in the benchmark S&P 500, where we topped on February 19. The long-term picture with sentiment is much different than it was 1.5 to 2 years ago. Back then, everyone was bearish, leading to an important market bottom and a subsequent rally to new all-time highs. We could use more bearishness in options to set us up for another rally to all-time highs. Based on this chart, we’re not there yet.
Volatility ($VIX)
Here’s the current view of the VIX:
There was one key development in the VIX. From studying the VIX long-term, whenever a top has been reached, and significant selling ensues, the VIX typically spikes into the 20s or 30s before we see some sort of a rebound, like the one we saw recently. When these bounces have been part of bear market counter rallies, the VIX has never dropped below the 16-17 support range. So for those looking for this current correction to morph into a bear market, the hope is absolutely alive and kicking. My interpretation is that bear markets require a certain level of uncertainty and fear. The VIX remaining above that 16-17 level is our proof that the market environment for further selling still exists. In the above chart, the VIX fell to 17 and then quickly reversed and today hit a high of 24.80.
Based on this one signal alone, I cannot rule out further selling ahead and a possible cyclical bear market, as opposed to the much more palatable correction.
Long-Term Trade Setup
Since beginning this Weekly Market Report in September 2023, I’ve discussed the long-term trade candidates below that I really like. Generally, these stocks have excellent long-term track records, and many pay nice dividends that mostly grow every year. Only in specific cases (exceptions) would I consider a long-term entry into a stock that has a poor or limited long-term track record and/or pays no dividends. Below is a quick recap of how I viewed their long-term technical conditions as of one week ago:
JPM – nice bounce off the recent 50-week SMA test
BA – up more than 20% in less than 2 weeks; 190-192 likely to prove a difficult level to pierce
FFIV – 20-week EMA test successful thus far
MA – another with a 20-week SMA test holding
GS – 10% bounce off its recent 50-week SMA test
FDX – lengthy four-month decline finally tested, and held, price support near 220
AAPL – weakness has not cleared best price support on the chart at 200 or just below
CHRW – testing significant 95 level, where both price and 50-day SMA support reside
JBHT – has fallen slightly beneath MAJOR support around 150
STX – 85 support continues to hold
HSY – did it just print a reverse right shoulder bottom on its weekly chart?
DIS – trendless as weekly moving averages are not providing support or resistance
MSCI – 3-year uptrend remains in play, though it’s been in a rough 6-7 week stretch
SBUX – first critical price test at all-time high near 116 failed miserably; support resides at 85
KRE – looking to establish short-term bottom at 55, with 2-year uptrend intact
ED – showing strength in March for 9th time in 10 years, moving to new all-time high
AJG – continues one of most consistent and dependable uptrends, trading just below all-time high
NSC – testing 230 price support as transportation woes continue
RHI – has broken recent price support in upper-50s; searching for new bottom with 4.4% dividend yield
ADM – struggled again at 20-week EMA, 45 represents a significant test of long-term uptrend
BG – approaching 4-year price support at 65 after failed test of declining 20-week EMA
CVS – bottom now seems light years away as CVS trades nearly 1-year high
IPG – how long can it hold onto multi-year price support at 26?
HRL – still bound between price support at 27.50 and 20-week EMA resistance at 30.15
DE – still trending above its rising 20-week EMA
Keep in mind that our Weekly Market Reports favor those who are more interested in the long-term market picture. Therefore, the list of stocks above are stocks that we believe are safer (but nothing is ever 100% safe) to own with the long-term in mind. Nearly everything else we do at EarningsBeats.com favors short-term momentum trading, so I wanted to explain what we’re doing with this list and why it’s different.
Also, please keep in mind that I’m not a Registered Investment Advisor (and neither is EarningsBeats.com nor any of its employees) and am only providing (mostly) what I believe to be solid dividend-paying stocks for the long term. Companies periodically go through adjustments, new competition, restructuring, management changes, etc. that can have detrimental long-term impacts. Neither the stock price nor the dividend is ever guaranteed. I simply point out interesting stock candidates for longer-term investors. Do your due diligence and please consult with your financial advisor before making any purchases or sales of securities.
Looking Ahead
Upcoming Earnings
Very few companies will report quarterly results until mid-April. The following list of companies is NOT a list of all companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, however, just key reports, so please be sure to check for earnings dates of any companies that you own. Any company in BOLD represents a stock in one of our portfolios and the amount in parenthesis represents the market capitalization of each company listed:
Monday: None
Tuesday: None
Wednesday: None
Thursday: None
Friday: None
Key Economic Reports
Monday: March Chicago PMI
Tuesday: March PMI manufacturing, March ISM manufacturing, February construction spending, Feb JOLTS
Wednesday: March ADP employment report, February factory orders
Thursday: Initial jobless claims, March ISM services
Friday: March nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings
Historical Data
I’m a true stock market historian. I am absolutely PASSIONATE about studying stock market history to provide us more clues about likely stock market direction and potential sectors/industries/stocks to trade. While I don’t use history as a primary indicator, I’m always very aware of it as a secondary indicator. I love it when history lines up with my technical signals, providing me with much more confidence to make particular trades.
Below you’ll find the next two weeks of historical data and tendencies across the three key indices that I follow most closely:
S&P 500 (since 1950)
Mar 31: -7.16%
Apr 1: +67.49%
Apr 2: +17.08%
Apr 3: -0.40%
Apr 4: -17.99%
Apr 5: +68.25%
Apr 6: +45.38%
Apr 7: -48.59%
Apr 8: +62.64%
Apr 9: +60.32%
Apr 10: +47.37%
Apr 11: -29.33%
Apr 12: +63.88%
Apr 13: -21.35%
NASDAQ (since 1971)
Mar 31: +39.81%
Apr 1: +83.56%
Apr 2: +18.47%
Apr 3: -86.48%
Apr 4: -70.46%
Apr 5: +112.55%
Apr 6: +26.71%
Apr 7: -38.23%
Apr 8: +44.64%
Apr 9: +60.64%
Apr 10: +47.74%
Apr 11: -51.08%
Apr 12: +33.04%
Apr 13: -0.08%
Russell 2000 (since 1987)
Mar 31: +78.83%
Apr 1: +27.91%
Apr 2: +18.08%
Apr 3: -113.26%
Apr 4: -75.19%
Apr 5: +101.16
Apr 6: +51.29%
Apr 7: -90.50%
Apr 8: +59.63%
Apr 9: +137.22%
Apr 10: +5.20%
Apr 11: -80.66%
Apr 12: +45.00%
Apr 13: -37.09%
The S&P 500 data dates back to 1950, while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 information date back to 1971 and 1987, respectively.
Final Thoughts
As I mentioned last week, I’m sticking with my belief that the S&P 500 ultimate low in 2025 will mark a correction (less than 20% drop) rather than a bear market (more than 20% drop). But a bear market cannot be ruled out. Honestly, I think sentiment ($CPCE) must turn much more bearish. This morning, we had another gap down and early selling and this is beginning to take a toll on options traders as they’re now starting to grow more bearish. As an example, check out this morning’s equity-only put call ratio at Cboe.com:
These Cboe.com readings are very high and show a definite shift in sentiment among options traders. Intense selling pressure and lots of equity puts being traded, relative to equity calls, help to mark bottoms.
Here are a few things to consider in the week ahead:
The Rebound. It ended rather quickly last week. I mentioned it’s a rebound until it isn’t. We moved right up to 5782 price resistance on the S&P 500 and the bears took over.
The Roll Over. We’re now in rollover mode, but the S&P 500 quickly lost 300 points from 5782 to today’s early low of 5488, which tested key short-term price support from March 13, where we printed a low close of 5521. Can the bulls hold onto support?
Nonfarm payrolls. This report will be out on Friday morning and current expectations are for March jobs (131,000) to fall below the February number of 151,000. Also, unemployment is expected to move up slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%. Should any of these numbers come in weaker than expected, the Fed could be in a box and Wall Street could sense it by selling off hard.
Sentiment. As I’ve said before, once the VIX moves beyond 20, not many good things happen to stocks. Selling can escalate very quickly as market makers go “on vacation.” Many times, we don’t find a bottom until retail options traders begin buying puts hand over fist. That could be underway right now.
Rotation. Rotation led us to where we are now, we need to continue to monitor where the money is going.
Seasonality. There is one real positive here. We’re about to move from the “2nd half of Q1”, which historically has produced annualized returns of +5.05% (4 percentage points BELOW the average annual S&P 500 return of +9%), to the “1st half of Q2”, which historically has produced annualized returns of 13.08% (4 percentage points ABOVE the average annual S&P 500 return of +9%). This half-quarter trails only the 1st and 2nd halves of Q4 in terms of half-quarter performance.
Manipulation. Yep, it’s starting again, just like it did during 2022’s cyclical bear market, which ultimately marked a critical S&P 500 bottom. We’ve done a ton of research on intraday trading behavior on our key indices, and many market-moving stocks like the Mag 7. Our Excel spreadsheet has been made available to all ANNUAL members, where you can see the manipulation for yourself.
When the stock market lacks clear direction, options strategies can be a dependable friend. I often go through the OptionsPlay ChartLists in StockCharts to look for stocks that show potential trading or investing opportunities.
On Tuesday, as I was scrolling through the Bearish Trend Following Strategies in the OptionsPlay Strategy Center, using a balanced risk profile and max risk of $2,500 as the criteria, a long put on Boston Scientific Corp. (BSX) stock showed up on the list with a relatively high OptionsPlay score.
FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF BSX STOCK. The stock price is approaching its 50-day SMA but momentum seems to be slowing as indicated by the relative strength index and percent price oscillator. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.The RSI and PPO indicate that momentum has slowed in the stock. So there’s a chance the stock price of BSX could hit the resistance of its 50-day SMA and fail to break above it, or it could break above it and continue higher. The short-term directional bias is neutral and could be a viable options trading candidate.
Let’s see what strategies the OptionsPlay Explorer comes up with for a bearish outlook on the stock price of BSX.
How to access OptionsPlay. In the SharpCharts workbench, select Options > OptionsPlay. Then compare the three optimal strategies.
FIGURE 2. OPTIMAL STRATEGIES FOR TRADING BSX FOR A BEARISH SCENARIO. Shorting BSX, buying a put, and a long put vertical are viable trading strategies for BSX. When selecting a strategy, select one that aligns with your comfort level. Image source: StockCharts.com.
The two options strategies with relatively high OptionsPlay scores are the May 16 105 put and the May 16 105/90 put vertical spread. If you shorted 100 shares of BSX instead of trading options on the stock, your return would have been lower (see left panel).
Both options strategies, i.e., the long May 15 105 put and the May 16 105/90 put vertical, look viable but a bearish move isn’t confirmed in the daily chart of BSX. There’s a chance the stock price of BSX will remain between $90 and $105 for an extended period (dashed blue horizontal lines). Because of the lack of directional clarity, I’d prefer to opt for the put vertical. You’re still buying the long put but adding a short put at a lower strike price with the same expiration date. This will offset the long put’s cost.
Your risk is limited to $555 with a potential reward of $945. The trade will be profitable if the stock price of BSX closes below $99.45 before the contract expires. As of this writing, there’s a 48.6% probability of this happening.
Remember, stock prices are dynamic so what you see today may not be the same as what you see tomorrow.
Keep the following points in mind:
You’re considering a bearish strategy when the short-term trend is neutral.
BSX reports earnings on April 30, which is before the options contract expires.
Keep an eye on implied volatility since it can change significantly during earnings. It’s important to manage your open trade. There are many ways to do this. View our educational webinars to learn more about how to manage your option trades.
The Bottom Line
With tariff announcements looming, it’s probably a good idea to hold off placing trades until after we know what tariffs will be implemented. Things could change on Thursday and BSX’s stock price shows a clear upside or downside. Review the optimal strategies before placing an option trade, and only place a trade if you are comfortable with the risk-reward tradeoff.
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.
Hundreds of men and women stand in rows, divided by nationality, in the courtyard of a white-walled compound, flanked by armed guards in fatigues.
The group were among around 7,000 people recently released from scam centers run by criminal gangs and warlords operating along Myanmar’s border with Thailand, where many are held against their will and forced to work conning ordinary people, including American citizens, out of their life savings.
Some volunteer to work in the compounds. But many others are lured by promises of well-paying jobs or other enticing opportunities, before being trafficked across the border into Myanmar to carry out fraudulent investment schemes and romance scams.
For years, the scam centers and cyber fraud compounds – many run by Chinese crime syndicates – have proliferated along the mountainous frontier, raking in billions of dollars from scams, money laundering and other illicit activities. The Chinese and Thai governments finally launched a highly publicized crackdown in February.
Those included in the releases are a fraction of an estimated 100,000 people trapped along the border.
“Billions of dollars are being invested in these kinds of businesses,” said Kannavee Suebsang, a Thai lawmaker leading his country’s efforts to release those held in scam centers. “They [the scam syndicates] will not stop.”
Hundreds of people freed from scam centers in KK Park in February, 2025.CNN
The scam underworld, analysts say, is agile and professional, and is rapidly expanding cyber fraud operations through illicit online marketplaces to target new demographics of victims.
The syndicates have quickly adopted cryptocurrency and are investing in cutting-edge technological developments to move money more quickly, as well as making the scams more effective.
Crime groups are using artificial intelligence to write scamming scripts and are exploiting increasingly realistic deepfake technology to create personas, pose as a love interests, and mask their identity, voice and gender.
“Fundamentally, this is a situation the region has never faced before,” said John Wojcik, an organized crime analyst at the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime.
“It’s clear that the evolving situation is trending towards something far more dangerous than scams alone – and rolling out at an unprecedented scale if left unchecked.”
There is also evidence of Asian crime syndicates expanding into other parts of the world, with networks found in parts of Africa, South Asia, the Gulf, and the Pacific, according to the UNODC.
“These syndicates are quickly maturing into more sophisticated cyber threat actors capable of deploying malware, deepfakes and other powerful tools, fuelled by the rise of new illicit online markets and crypto-based laundering services,” said Wojick.
The scale of the problem is too vast for one government or agency to combat. Experts say a global response is needed.
Inside KK Park in Myawaddy, Myanmar in February, 2025.CNN
Scam city
The scam compounds in Myawaddy lie in territory controlled by two Myanmar ethnic militia groups, the Karen Border Guard Force and the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA).
One such complex is KK Park, a sprawling, purpose-built city that experts say is dedicated to online gambling and cyber fraud.
Ringed by mountains and corn fields, the huge, heavily guarded compound of multi-story buildings and telecoms towers stands just inside the country’s border with Thailand – a blot on the otherwise untouched landscape.
But in what looked like an office building, dozens of men were packed together in a whitewashed room, sitting or lying on duvets on the floor.
In a nearby courtyard, dozens more men and several women sit crouched in lines. Most wear masks to obscure their identities. Clothes and towels hang drying on overhead balconies.
The Border Guard Force militia had invited local journalists inside KK Park on a heavily restricted visit. Armed BGF soldiers carried semi-automatic rifles and rocket-propelled grenade launchers, as the media were escorted into a select few buildings.
The several hundred people inside are the recently released victims and workers of the scam compound, the BGF said.
“They deceived many people, from South America, from North America, from Africa and Arabic-speaking countries,” said Kannavee.
Chinese pressure
The armed groups agreed to help put a stop to illegal trafficking and scamming operations in their territories after pressure from Chinese and Thai authorities following the high-profile abduction of a Chinese actor to a scam center in Myawaddy earlier this year.
The compounds have operated for years, shielded by corruption and lawlessness that has long saturated Myanmar’s border regions. But the criminal syndicates and the armed groups hosting them have exploited four years of devastating civil war to greatly expand their business.
Since seizing power in a coup in February 2021, Myanmar’s military junta has waged a brutal war against its people. On multiple fronts, the military is fighting against resistance groups and long-established ethnic minority armed forces, which the opposition government says now control about 60% of the country.
More than $43 billion is lost to scams in Southeast Asia by regional crime groups a year — almost 40% of the combined gross domestic product of Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar, according to the US Congress-founded United States Institute of Peace.
Previous crackdowns in Myanmar meant the syndicates moved operations further into the country’s interior or to major cities such as Yangon. And traffickers involved in bringing people into the centers became more sophisticated, experts say.
Even as thousands of people are being released in Myawaddy, there’s continued illicit activity and ongoing recruitment inside.
“There is already indication of an ongoing partial displacement into other neighboring scam hubs in the region,” said UNODC’s Wojcik.
The BGF and militias are positioning themselves as helping to eradicate the scam centers in their territories, even leading press tours into the scam compounds.
But they are also accused of direct involvement in operations inside the centers and benefiting financially from them.
A member of the Karen Border Guard Force guards alleged scam center workers, many of whom say they were trafficked and forced to work at the compound, during a crackdown operation on February 23.
AFP/Getty Images
Alleged scam center workers and victims stand together during the crackdown operation by the Karen Border Guard Force.
AFP/Getty Images
The BGF was one of the architects of the criminal hub in Myawaddy starting from 2016, when it rented land to Chinese syndicates, according to analysts, and business soared after the 2021 military coup.
“The Border Guard Force has shares in every single one of these projects, and that’s the mainstay of its economy. It’s drawing most of its revenue from this,” said Jason Tower, country director for Myanmar at the United States Institute of Peace.
“These armed groups have very direct relationships with the mafia,” he added. “They’re using that revenue to purchase weapons, to recruit new troops. So, it’s a very clear alignment of interests that’s there between these armed groups and the criminal syndicates.”
Thailand’s Department of Special Investigation is seeking an arrest warrant for BGF leader Saw Chit Thu – who is linked to another notorious compound, Shwe Kokko – and two of his associates, on human trafficking charges.
Police said the prosecutor’s office is reviewing the case.
Chit Thu has denied knowing about or benefiting from the scamming and trafficking operations in his territory, and said in a recent press conference that the BGF is raiding the compounds with the aim of eradicating them.
China has taken the lead in putting pressure on Thailand to stop scam operations on its border. For years, China has been the main supporter of Myanmar’s military, but the proliferation of scam operations has strained that relationship.
Analysts say Beijing could be leveraging the situation to increase its security presence in Myanmar and influence the trajectory of the civil war, which has had a destabilizing effect on its own border with Myanmar.
“It potentially could use that growing presence there to assist the Myanmar military in gaining additional intelligence on some of the movements of resistance forces in the Myanmar, Thailand borderland,” said Tower.
Myint Kyaw of the junta-controlled Myanmar information ministry said the government is “actively investigating online scams and online gambling, and is working with foreign countries, including foreign organizations, to combat them.”
While Myanmar remains fractured and in a state of civil war, without a legitimate government to negotiate with, the scam industry in Myanmar won’t be dismantled.
“As long as peace is not a reality in Myanmar,” said Kannavee. “This is the reality here along the border.”
Adding further uncertainty to efforts to eradicate the scam compounds, is that Myanmar is now struggling to respond to a massive earthquake that has devastated the country’s central Sagaing region, killing more than 2,700 people.
Satellite images from Maxar Technologies show construction at KK Park in Myawaddy from 2020 to 2024.Maxar Technologies
Fears for those left behind
Even for the about 7,000 victims and workers rounded up in the recent operations, there is little clarity on how or when many will be able to go home.
The armed groups have demanded that Thailand let the individuals cross the border so they can be repatriated, saying they don’t have food or capacity to care for them.
China, whose nationals make up the largest proportion of people caught up inside the centers, has flown several thousand of its citizens home, and last week more than 500 freed Indian nationals were repatriated.
But Thailand has struggled to process a backlog of thousands of people from more than 20 countries.
“The situation is really getting to the point where it’s almost a humanitarian crisis, and it’s a very unique crisis in so far as you have people from such a wide range of countries,” said Tower. “This is a particularly complex operation to have to manage, and it’s all happening with very little time to plan, very little time to raise resources.”
Kannavee led a successful rescue operation of 260 people in February after negotiating with the DKBA. Video from the release shows dozens of people streaming onto a small Thai-flagged ferry to cross the Moei River – the demarcation line between Thailand and Myanmar. Carrying bags and suitcases, many look relieved and happy to finally be on Thai soil. But their ordeal was not over.
“Many of them are still stuck in the temporary shelters in Thailand,” said Kannavee.
Victims, who were tricked or trafficked into working in Myanmar scam centers, stand on a vessel floating toward the Thai side of the border on February 12.
Krit Phromsakla Na Sakolnakorn/Reuters
As they watch others be released, families of those still inside the centers have had to anxiously await news of their loved ones.
Chelsea’s husband left their home in the Philippines in April last year for what he was told was a tech support job in Thailand. Chelsea, who asked to use a pseudonym to protect her husband, was pregnant with their second child at the time, and the family needed the cash.
But after arriving in Bangkok, her husband was driven to the Thai border town Mae Sot, where “soldiers with guns” forced him get on a boat across the river to Myanmar, she said. Instead of tech support, Chelsea said her husband worked 17-hour days for no salary conning people out of their money online.
“I cannot sleep. I’m just thinking about how he’s been doing,” Chelsea said.
A member of the Karen Border Guard Force stands guard as those freed from online scam centers arrive at the border checkpoint with Thailand, in Myawaddy, Myanmar, on February 20.
AFP/Getty Images
Alleged scam center workers and victims from China arrive at the border checkpoint with Thailand in Myawaddy, Myanmar, on February 20.
AFP/Getty Images
Chelsea had kept in touch with her husband via a used phone he bought from someone in the compound. But in December he suddenly stopped responding to her. Three months later, he got back in touch. He had been caught with the phone and the scam bosses threatened to sell him to another compound.
“They told him that if we catch you again having a phone, we’re going to sell you. We’re going to get your kidney or your eyes,” Chelsea said.
Her husband was in a DKBA camp, hoping to be released home. Last week, he was finally released.
One woman from China, who requested anonymity because she feared retaliation, said she believed her sibling was moved to a different compound in February.
Until her sibling was unexpectedly released in recent weeks, information had dried up for months.
“Ever since they started releasing people in February, their freedom has been monitored even more strictly, no one is allowed to chat with (each) other,” she said. “I dare not imagine how terrible it must be to be in there.”
Victims of scam centers, who were tricked into working in Myanmar, are assembled at a compound inside the KK Park, after a crackdown operation by the Karen Border Guard Force on February 26.
One of the largest rounds of conscription to Russia’s military for several years is underway, as President Vladimir Putin pushes ahead with an expansion of the country’s military at a crucial moment in the war in Ukraine.
Putin signed a decree authorizing the latest phase of the country’s twice-yearly conscription effort, with the new window beginning Tuesday and running until July 15.
It will see 160,000 men between 18 and 30 join Russia’s armed forces – an increase of 10,000 on last year’s spring drive, and a rise of more than 15,000 compared to three years ago, according to Russian state media outlet TASS.
The conscription push is not new, and TASS reported that the rise is caused by Putin’s efforts to increase the size of Russia’s military as a whole; the country had 1 million military personnel three years ago, but now has around 1.5 million.
But the new push also comes at a vital crossroads in Russia’s war in Ukraine. Moscow has been relying on assistance from North Korean soldiers to push back Kyiv’s advances in the Kursk region of Russia, and has been steadily advancing on the ground in eastern Ukraine, while the US attempts to broker talks that would end the conflict.
Russian law prohibits sending conscripts drafted for mandatory service to active combat zones without proper training. While the official stance is that conscripts are not sent to Ukraine, reports have surfaced of conscripts being pressured or misled into signing contracts that result in their deployment to the front lines in Ukraine. Others found themselves under attack when Kyiv launched its surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August 2024.
Russian troops have continued sustained attacks in the Pokrovsk area of Donetsk in recent weeks, and have launched aerial assaults against Ukrainian cities, even while discussions with the US continue.
Senior Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev is meanwhile expected to visit Washington this week to meet with top Trump official Steve Witkoff for talks on strengthening relations between the two countries as they seek to end the war in Ukraine, according to a US official and two sources familiar with the plans.
His visit will mark the first time a senior Russian official has visited Washington, DC, for talks since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and marks a further step in the marked warming in relations between the two countries since President Donald Trump returned to office in January.
Trump acknowledged in an interview with Newsmax last week that Russia may be “dragging their feet.”
Putin not only rejected Trump’s recent call for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine but also added conditions – including the lifting of US sanctions – for a ceasefire on fighting in the Black Sea after last week’s latest negotiations wrapped up and the moratorium had been announced by the White House.
Myanmar’s ruling military government has announced a temporary ceasefire in operations against armed opposition groups to aid recovery efforts following Friday’s devastating earthquake.
The truce will run from April 2 to April 22, state-run MRTV said on Wednesday.
More than 2,700 people have died in Myanmar following Friday’s quake, the government says. Hundreds more remain missing, meaning the death toll is expected to rise.
The country has also been embroiled in civil war for four years sparked by a bloody and economically destructive military coup, which has seen junta forces battle rebel groups across the country.
The coup and ensuing conflict has battered its health infrastructure, leaving it ill-equipped to deal with major natural disasters.
Swathes of the country lie outside the control of the military junta and are a run by a patchwork of ethnic rebels and militias, making compiling reliable information extremely difficult.
MRTV also reported Wednesday that chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC) Min Aung Hlaing will attend a regional summit in Thailand on April 3-4 to discuss the respinse to the earthquake.
The president of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has commuted the death sentences of three Americans convicted of attempting a coup to life imprisonment, days before US government officials are due to visit the central African country.
The Americans, Marcel Malanga, Tyler Thompson Jr., and Benjamin Reuben Zalman-Polun were among 37 people handed death sentences by a military court in September following last year’s failed coup attempt led by Malanga’s father, Christian.
The putschists had targeted the country’s presidential palace and the residence of Congolese politician Vital Kamerhe in an attempt to overthrow the government in May 2024.
At least six people, including Christian Malanga, an opposition politician who livestreamed the coup attempt, were killed in a gun battlewithpresidential guards.
Salama said the clemency decision was not made to placate the US, with whom the DRC has sought a minerals-for-security partnership. It comes as war rages in the country’s resource-rich eastern region between government forces and a Rwanda-backed rebel group.
“We have no deal with the Americans at this stage on any American intervention,” Salama said.
The new US Senior Adviser for Africa Massad Boulos and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Corina Sanders will travel to the DRC Thursday, the State Department announced this week.
The officials aim to ”advance efforts for durable peace in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and to promote US private sector investment in the region,” it noted. They also plan to visit neighboring Rwanda, Uganda and Kenya.
A serial rapist who was convicted of raping 10 women in the United Kingdom and China last month also attacked dozens more victims before he was arrested, police said on Wednesday.
London’s Metropolitan Police Service said that 23 women came forward with new accusations against Zhenhao Zou following an appeal to trace other potential victims of the man described by the police as a “dangerous and prolific sexual predator.”
Zou, 28, was found guilty in March of 11 counts of rape, one count of false imprisonment, three counts of voyeurism and a number of other offenses, including the possession of extreme pornographic images and the possession of a controlled drug with intent to commit a sexual offense.
Investigators said that evidence, including videos found on Zou’s devices, suggested there may be more than 50 other survivors who have not yet been identified.
Some of the women who contacted the police with new accusations against Zou are in the UK, some are in China, and some in other parts of the world, the police said on Wednesday.
Zou, who is originally from Dongguan in China, has lived in various parts of the world, including China, Belfast in Northern Ireland, and London.
The Metropolitan Police force has appealed for survivors and potential witnesses to contact officers through a secure portal.
The police and prosecutors said Zou, who also went by the name Pakho online, used WeChat and dating apps to meet other students of Chinese heritage. He would invite them for drinks, drug them and then assault them in his apartments in London and in China.
Prosecutors said many of his victims were “unconscious and rendered defenceless” by the drugs he had given them. He secretly filmed some of his attacks using a mobile device and hidden cameras, according to the UK’s Crown Prosecution Service. The police said he also took items from his victims, such as jewelry and clothing.
The police said Zou “manipulated and drugged women in order to prey on them in the most cowardly way.”
A PhD student at University College London, Zou was arrested in January 2024 after one of his victims reported him to the police.
Prosecutors said last month that the “courageous women who came forward to report Zhenhao Zou’s heinous crimes” have been “incredibly strong and brave” and that there was “no doubt” that their evidence led to his convictions.
Zou will be sentenced later this year, according to the police.
Former Costa Rican President and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Óscar Arias says he has had his visa to enter the United States revoked.
Arias, 84, said he doesn’t know why his visa was canceled but accepts that the US has the right to make such a decision.
Miguel Guillén, the secretary general of Arias’ National Liberation Party, said the former president had received an email notifying him of the move.
“I don’t know if the revoking of my visa is the product of some sort of retaliation, because I say what I think (and) write what I say,” Arias told a press conference Tuesday.
In recent weeks, Arias had posted messages on social media that were critical of US President Donald Trump and his policies.
In one post, he compared Trump to “a Roman emperor” who tells other nations what to do. In another, he accused Trump and Vice President JD Vance of insulting and threatening Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a heated White House meeting in February.
“If someone wants to use a reprisal to silence me, well obviously they’re not going to silence me,” he said Tuesday.
Arias was Costa Rica’s president between 1986 and 1990 and again between 2006 and 2010.
He won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1987 for his role in negotiating an end to the Central American conflicts of the 1980s.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is in Greenland for a three-day trip aimed at building trust and cooperation with Greenlandic officials at a time when the Trump administration is seeking control of the vast Arctic territory.
Frederiksen announced plans for her visit after US Vice President JD Vance visited a US air base in Greenland last week and accused Denmark of underinvesting in the territory.
Greenland is a mineral-rich, strategically critical island that is becoming more accessible because of climate change. Trump has said that the landmass is critical to US security. It’s geographically part of North America, but is a semiautonomous territory belonging to the Kingdom of Denmark.
After her arrival Wednesday, Frederiksen walked the streets of the capital, Nuuk, with the incoming Greenlandic leader, Jens-Frederik Nielsen. She is also to meet with the future Naalakkersuisut, the Cabinet, in a visit due to last through Friday.
“It has my deepest respect how the Greenlandic people and the Greenlandic politicians handle the great pressure that is on Greenland,” she said in government statement announcing the visit.
On the agenda are talks with Nielsen about cooperation between Greenland and Denmark.
Nielsen has said in recent days that he welcomes the visit, and that Greenland would resist any US attempt to annex the territory.
“We must listen when others talk about us. But we must not be shaken. President Trump says the United States is ‘getting Greenland.’ Let me make this clear: The U.S. is not getting that. We don’t belong to anyone else. We decide our own future,” he wrote Sunday on Facebook.
“We must not act out of fear. We must respond with peace, dignity and unity. And it is through these values that we must clearly, clearly and calmly show the American president that Greenland is ours.”
For years, the people of Greenland, with a population of about 57,000, have been working toward eventual independence from Denmark.
The Trump administration’s threats to take control of the island one way or the other, possibly even with military force, have angered many in Greenland and Denmark. The incoming government chosen in last month’s election wants to take a slower approach on the question of eventual independence.
The political group in Greenland most sympathetic to the US president, the Naleraq party that advocates a swift path toward independence, was excluded from coalition talks to form the next government.
Peter Viggo Jakobsen, associate professor at the Danish Defense Academy, said last week that the Trump administration’s aspirations for Greenland could backfire and push the more mild parties closer to Denmark.
He said that “Trump has scared most Greenlanders away from this idea about a close relationship to the United States because they don’t trust him.”